Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/03/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple of 'possibles' to consider in the Black Country. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.15 Hexham
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

...and although it's not a great race, it does make sense to consider the chances of a  horse, On The Right Track, in a 'free race' ie the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

None of these come here in any great form, although Belle of Annandale & Haven Lady were both runners-up on their last outings, whilst the latter along with Hashtagmetoo are the only pair to have won any of their last five and they seem to be the most consistent of this bunch.

All bar Iron Heart (down two classes) and This One's For Fred (down one) were in Class 6 action last time around and seven of the field have raced ion the last four weeks. The exceptions to this are Belle of Annandale & The Shortlist horse On The Right Track who now return from breaks of 173 and 239 days respectively and may well need the run.

Kentucky Kingdom, This One's For Fred and Tio Mio are former course winners (at 1m1½f, 1m6f & 1m1½f), whilst Haven Lady and Iron Heart have previous wins over a mile and a half. Belle of Annandale has won at neither track nor trip, but Hashtagmetoo, Starfighter and On The Right Track are all course and distance winners.

Instant Expert also tells us that all bar Belle of Annandale have won on standard A/W and that all bar Belle of Annandale and Iron Heart have won a Class 6 A/W contest...

On the immediate face of it, The Shortlist horse On The Right Track is the eyecatcher, but that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that he hasn't won a race for almost 18 months, although he's now weighted to go well. Obvious concerns surface about Haven Lady, Starfighter, This One's For Fred & Tio Mio on the going, This One's For Fred on Class and both Hashtagmetoo & Starfighter on the trip, but as there's a lack of green above, let's look at place form...

...where again On The Right Track looks best placed but with the same caveats as before. This One's For Fred looks the weakest here and I think we'd probably be best focusing on those with any green on Going, Class, Course and/or Distance, so that's not good for Belle of Annandale (again), Haven lady or Iron Heart.

Other than not getting hampered or cut-up on the bends, there shouldn't really be a massive draw bias in a 9-runner contest over a mile and a half, but let's check the actual stats...

...and they do seem to back up my theory, that aside from a slight disadvantage in the lower quarter of the draw, there shouldn't be too much in it and it's a similar story with pace. Hold-up horses have struggled to make up ground here, but thise racing any further forward all seem to have a decent enough chance of getting involved...

...which based on recent outings...

...wouldn't bode well for the likes of Kentucky Kingdom, Tio Mio or Iron heart and if we use a three-race sample size and arrange the field in draw order using those draw/pace stats abo, we can generate this heatmap...

Summary

It's Hashtagmetoo here for me. He's running consistently well, scores well on Instant Expert for places, is well drawn and has a good pace profile. He won over course and distance earlier this month and looks the most likely to me.

No prices out as of 3.10pm Monday, so I'll check back in later and update and also add an E/W option, if there's a viable price.

Update, Hashtagmetoo opened up at 15/2 with Skybet & Hills not long after 5pm, so he's the E/W pick for me.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 24/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hereford
  • 3.00 Musselburgh
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I think we really need to look at Elzaam in the 8.15 Newcastle, which is a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard going tapeta. He has raced at this class, track and trip nine times so far in handicaps and his results read 332211311! From those nine races he is 1311 under today's jockey Graham Lee, 311 in fields of 12+ runners and he's 11311 in his last five career runs, incidentally all here over course and distance.

Here's the card...

As you can see, he's one of just two (in-form Enraged being the other) LTO winners but five of his rivals (Primo's Comet, Enraged, Kraken Power, Nellie French & Another Angel) have also won over course and distance.

Most of his rivals (except Impressor @ 112 dlsr) have raced in the last five weeks and Shabaaby, Primo's Comet & Enraged all drop in class to run here in what will be just Madam Arkati's second run in a handicap.

As you'd expect, Elzaam dominates the Instant Expert section of the card...

...but a few others do at least have some creditable numbers behind them. There is however a large number of red boxes with horses having poor results from a fair large sample size ie Araifjan on the going, One Hart (track), Primo's Comet (going/track/trip), Mews House (going/trip), Marwari (going), Nellie French (track) and Another Angel (class). To be honest, I do see it as a negative if your percentages are still that low after 10 or more attempts. Hopefully the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

A simplistic view here is that Elzaal, Enraged, Kraken Power and Marwari might be the ones to make a shortlist from, although you could still make a case for a few others. That said, Primo's Comet and Impressor do look like they might well struggle.

Elzaal is drawn in stall 11 of 14 on a track/trip where not only have high draws prevailed most often, but stall 11 has been the most successful of all...

And he has been drawn in 10 or higher in three of his four course and distance wins to date. So, Elzaal is in great form, he's the course/distance expert and has got a great draw, so here's the downside? Well, if there is one it's the fact that he's likely to have pass most of his rivals late on if he's to win again, as recent runs suggest he's likely to be held up for a late run...

...and that's not generally the way to win such races here at Newcastle, if we refer back to those races we used for the draw stats...

So, the main possible negative is that he runs from a career-high mark with a possible poor pace profile, but he has won his last two here from the back of the field suggesting he might be the exception to the rule and if we're looking for high drawn leaders, I suppose that's Another Angel in #13, who might well give Elzaal a good two into the race from wide.

Summary

I really can't see Elzaal not making the frame here, especially with most firms paying four places, but at 6/1 he's not E/W material for me. The biggest challenges will probably come from in-form class dropper Enraged (current 5/1 fav) and Kraken Power who can be had at 2.50pm at 17/2 with Hills, which would probably be my E/W play.

Kraken Power was just a nose behind Enraged when they met here last month and with Kraken Power a pund better off here, it's sure to be tight between the pair and then when you add the late run from Elzaal, we could have a cracking finish. Any of the three could get it on the nod, but if I stuck my neck out, it'd be with featured horse Elzaal.

Please note, I'm off to Oslo this (Thursday) evening, returning home on Monday, so the next Racing Insights column will be for Tuesday's racing (28th).

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Cork
  • 2.35 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow

The first of the two UK races above is a Novice event, so I'm going to have a look at the 5.20 Ludlow, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in 11 flights over a right-handed 2m5½f on good to soft ground, that is soft in places with showers forecast...

My initial thoughts were that Your Band might be out of his depth, but that the other half dozen might well only be separated by a few points in the market, giving us a nice competitive contest.

Sole mare Malaita is the only LTO winner in the field, but she's up a class here, as is Duke of Moravia, who made the frame last time and now makes a second handicap appearance. It's also Amrons Sage's second crack at a handicap, whilst Spring Meadow is on handicap debut.

Top-weight Whatsupwithyou was a runner-up less than three weeks ago and now drops in class, whilst Spring Meadow and No No Tango also made the frame last time. Duke of Moravia has been away from the track the longest at almost twelve weeks, but that's no real cause for concern.

The mare Malaita is the only former course winner, having landed a bumper in May 2021 on her second career start, whilst Whatsupwithyou's win at Ascot on debut in December 2019 is the only win at this trip achieved by the entire field. Feature of the day Instant Expert also tells us that just two of the seven have won on good to soft or soft ground so far and that just three of them are Class 4 winners...

Spring Meadow looks strongest here in a weak set of results, but we'll probably learn more from place form...

My main concerns here are Whatsupwithyou on the softer ground, yet closer analysis is contradictory. He's made the frame in four of vive on good ground, so you'd say he wants it quicker than this, but his win on debut was over this trip on heavy ground. Elsewhere, Malaita might struggle with the quality of the race, as her best form (inc that LTO win) has been at Class 5, but she was a runner-up at Hereford thirteen months ago off just one pound lower than today.

She won from the front last time out and is likely to be up with the pace again here, if her last four outings are anything to go by (see below), but this might be tricky, now she's up in trip by 3.5 furlongs. Of the others, No No Tango looks the likeliest to be the early back-marker...

...and back-markers have fared worst in similar past races, according to our pace analyser...

...which looks weighted towards leaders.

Summary

Overall, the two I like(d) best are/were Whatsupwithyou and No No Tango, but neither come without risks. The former hasn't gone well on good to soft/soft ground, but has won on heavy. He's got a good pace profile for this contest, has won at this trip, is in decent form and drops in class. The latter is a regular placer in good nick, but might well be left with too much to do.

Aside from this two, Spring Meadow also made some appeal with two wins and a place from his last four and a prominent racing style, but his jumping hasn't been great and he's hardly thrown in off a mark of 188 for his handicap debut, so I'll stick with my initial pair and side with the 9/2 Whatsupwithyou to edge out the equally-priced No No Tango.

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/03/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.25 Warwick
  • 4.10 Haydock
  • 4.25 Ffos Las

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have generated the following...

...with both Your Own Story & the veteran Le Coeur Net running in one of our free races. Your Own Story's race look a better one on paper, so let's head towards the 4.10 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 3m4½f on soft ground...

Featured horse Your Own Story is the one of the ten to have won last time out, but all bar Shanty Alley, Equus Dreamer and Juge Et Parti have won at least once in their last five outings with No Cruise yet winning two of five and The Questioner two of three. Burbank, however has failed to complete the last three, Sam's Adventure hasn't finished his last two, Shanty Alley has two incompletes from five as does Fortified Bay.

In-form The Questioner is up in class here, but Shanty Alley, Sam's Adventure, Rath An Iuir and No Cruise Yet all drop down a level. Sam's Adventure is turned back out after just three days, as he unseated at the first at Carlisle, whilst Equus Dreamer's ten week break is the longest of the ten runners.

No Cruise Yet is the only one of the ten to have won over a similar trip to this, achieved via a course and distance win here three starts ago, whilst Sam's Adventure's 3m2f chase success in December 2019 is the only other Haydock win mustered by this field. Mind you, four of them have never even tackled a fence here, as shown by Instant Expert...

 

...where class dropper No Cruise Yet is the obvious eyecatcher, even at 7lbs above his last win. Fortified bay has some good numbers, but struggled off today's mark LTO and I should mention The Questioner, who has no relevant chase form under these conditions, but is unexposed after just two runs over fences. He won on debut, landing a 3m2f contest at Doncaster, which earned him a 6lb rise to a mark of 103 from which he duly finished third in the 3m6½f North Wales National at Bangor 12 days ago, going down by just four lengths, suggesting today's trip shouldn't be an issue and he's a soft ground winner over hurdles.

Based on similar recent races here at Haydock, you'd want to be on a horse that's up with the pace...

...and based on this field's last few outings...

...that's more good news for No Cruise Yet and Fortified Bay.

Summary

The bookies have Your Own Story (5/2) No Cruise Yet (4/1) and The Questioner (5/1) as the market principals and that's probably fair as they're the best three in the race in my opinion. That said, it's rare that the top three in the market are the first three home, so if one was to falter, that might open the door for Fortified Bay as an E/W bet, who might well outrun his 16/1 ticket (as of 6.30pm) and could be worth a quid or two, especially if your bookie pays four places.

As for the winner? It's No Cruise Yet for me at 4/1, he's in good form, scored best on Instant Expert and has the ideal pace profile for this race.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/03/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Wetherby
  • 3.50 Market Rasen
  • 4.25 Market Rasen
  • 4.50 Clonmel

Small fields everywhere in the UK and not much of note to discuss, but I'm going take a quick look at the 4.25 Market Rasen, as it seems the 'best' of the free races to look at. It's a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on soft ground and these are the five runners set to go to post...

MADE FOR YOU has finished 51122 in five starts here and was a winner at Musselburgh three races ago, scoring by 8 lengths in early December. Hasn't been anywhere near that level in two runs since (PU and 5th of 6) and will need to improve to be involved here, you'd think.

THE KNIPHAND looked a better horse when stepped up to 3m+ last December, winning back to back handicaps at Doncaster seven weeks apart. Things didn't go to plan last time out at Chepstow, but he was up two classes and should stand a better chance here now back down in grade.

BOLD SOLDIER makes a handicap debut here after being the runner-up in three of four efforts over hurdles so far and was beaten by less than two lengths over 3m on soft/heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out. He was headed with half a furlong to go and the slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground here could help him land a first win in a first time tongue tie, as might the booking of a 7lb claimer who has finished 1271 in his last four.

STORM DENNIS won back to back 2m5f contests in Jan/Feb of last year before a seven month break. He was then last of five, beaten by twenty lengths on chase debut before reverting to hurdles on Boxing Day in a 10 length defeat when 6th of 15 over 2m5f at Kempton. Unproven at the trip and might need the run, but off a workable mark, the same as his last win.

RIPPER ROO had a good 20/21 season, finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper outing before a run of form reading 2331 over hurdles, culminating in a win here over 2m5f. Then off track for the thick end of 20 months, he hasn't looked the same in three efforts over fences, beaten by 31 and 43 lengths before being puled up last time out. Might do better back over hurdles, but hard to be confident about his chances.

Not much soft ground form to write home about, but The Kniphand and Made For You both have multiple wins at this level and Made For You really likes it here at Market Rasen, but has struggled with the trip, unlike The Kniphand, but he's now 6lbs higher than his last win, whilst from a place perspective, it's Storm Dennis who looks the weakest...

With these small fields on tricky ground, you often get a falsely run race, but if this field run how they have in their most recent outings, then I'd expect the first part of the race to see them in this kind of order...

...although Storm Dennis might well be the one to lead out and I'm unsure about Ripper Roo. Made For You looks like one who'll be waited with, though. The pace might not actually be as important here as it is on other days, as it looks like this kind of race can be won from anywhere...

...the mid-div numbers are obviously skewed in a such a small sample size, but my take here is that if pace is no real advantage, then the horse best suited to conditions 'should' be the one to back.

Summary

The pair I think I'd want to be with in a race like this are the two I highlighted from Instant Expert, Made For You and The Kniphand. Neither tick all the boxes, as explained earlier, but there's a big discrepancy in price. Made For You has the ability to win this race, but is out of form, so the cheekpieces are going back and at 9/1, he's the outsider of the five, but might be worth a small (and I mean small) E/W bet here.

Otherwise, I have no play in the game.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 3.25 Navan
  • 3.45 Taunton

The latter of the two UK races appeal most to me both generally and from a pace perspective and whilst it's a small field, the race looks pretty competitive in the 3.45 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

Jpr One has two wins and a runner-up finish from five so far with wins over 2m1f at Exeter and over 2m3½f. Well beaten in his last two efforts, both at Graded level, he now drops two classes for a second crack at a handicap a full year and five days after he was last seen. Will probably need the run.

Mr Grey Sky won both bumper starts (Dec '18) and won back to back short distance hurdles in Jan/Feb '22, but hasn't tackled a hurdle for a year and has ran just once fences since then, finishing last of six at Hereford just before Christmas.

Zambezi Fix won LTO just over three weeks ago, when first home by a neck at Chepstow over today's trip, after been a heavy ground runner-up on his previous run in January. Up 4lbs here, but still expected to be in the mix.

Libberty Hunter had two wins and a place from four bumpers and his hurdles form reads 231 (all at Chepstow). He was only beaten by a length in a 15-runner contest on hurdles debut over today's trip in early November, but a step up to 2m3½f somewhat caught him short a month later, but another one month break and a drop back to today's trip saw him get off the mark over hurdles with a 1.25 length success. Up one class for his handicap debut here.

In The Air won over this trip on hurdles debut just over a year ago, but hasn't really shone since, finishing 6th of 9 at Aintree (over 100 lengths down) in a Grade 1, then falling at Fontwell prior to a 12 length defeat (6th of 9) at Ascot four months ago. No run since then and although down in class, might toil here.

Mamoom Star made the frame in his first two bumpers including a Listed race at Cheltenham at the start of 2022. He was then well beaten in two more bumpers before winning on hurdling debut last November here at Taunton (Class 4, 2m1f). Subsequently just 6th of 10 (45 lengths) at Kempton on Boxing Day, he then dropped two classes t0 run third of eight at Sandown a month ago. Now back up in class for his handicap debut.

All of which translates to a bit of a mixed bag form-wise...

Zambezi Fix looks unsuited by the trip, but has made the frame in four of his twelve defeats and with so little to go on from a win perspective, I think place form might help us more...

...where Zambeai Fix now looks more of a consistent, experienced performer, but it's Libberty Hunter catching the eye despite this being a class and course debut.

Feature of the day is pace and below you can see the pace scores from each runner's last four outings alongside a composite of their average score...

...suggesting Mr Grey Sky is likely to set the tempo of the contest, whilst Jpr One, In The Air and Zambezi Fix are all likely to be waited with. I've looked at past similar races and they haven't been kind to back markers...

Summary

You've probably guessed that I haven't spend long on this race and that's because you shouldn't be poring over small field low quality contests. Quickly ascertain if there's a bet for you and then move on is the Geegeez way!

I think there could be a bet here on Libberty Hunter. Up in class for a handicap debut, but in good form, scored well on IE place form and has the right kind of pace profile here. He's 11/4 with Bet365 (Sunday 7pm) and that's a bit longer than I expected, which is good.

As for a runner-up/placer/forecast horse, I did like Zambezi Fix initially, but a poor record at the trip and him being held-up have put me off so Mamoon Star might be the one at 13/2. He'll have to overcome a step up in class, but is running well and gets the trip readily.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/03/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Wolverhampton
  • 5.50 Down Royal
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...so I suppose it makes sense to try and assess the chances of Johnny Boom in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table as both won last time out and they are two from three and three from six respectively. Captain Attridge is a career 0 from 5, but the rest of the field have all won at least one of their last six outings.

The entire field either ran a this class or higher last time around, so, all should used to the standard, especially Poetic Force, Baby Steps & Harbour Vision who drop from Class 4 and Enough Already whose last race was a Class 3 affair.

Captain Attridge has been off the track since 1st October 2021 and is highly likely to need the run on his yard/UK/handicap debut. Of his rivals, Milltown Star's 55-day break is the longest and Harbour Vision, Poetic Force & Johnny Boom all raced less than a fortnight ago.

Enough Already and the maiden Captain Attridge are the two yet to win here at Wolverhampton and of the nine course winners, five (Arcadian Nights, Tiger Beetle, H4C horse Johnny Boom, Harbour Vision & Mafia Power) are course and distance winners.

All bar Captain Attridge have won on standard going A/W tracks with varying degrees of success and we've half a dozen previous Class 5 A/W winners, according to Instant Expert...

One's focus automatically falls on the green blocks and it's pretty safe to say that Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force, Tiger Beetle and Johnny Boom have performed best under these conditions previously, whilst I have concerns over Enough Already (going), Baby Steps (going/distance), Johnny Boom (class), Harbour Vision (class/course), Mafia Power (going/class/distance), English Spirit (going) and Captain Attridge (layoff and generally!).

In fact, I'd not say those I have concerns about couldn't/wouldn't make the frame, but I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle, who will emerge from stalls 2, 5, 9 & 11, so a good spread across the track. I've omitted Johnny Boom from my list of possible winners, because he is 6 from 12 at Class 6 and 0 from 16 any higher, including 0 from 11 at Class 5. He has made the frame in three of six Class 5 A/W handicaps here though, so could be one for minor money.

My quartet of potential winners are spread across the track for a race that has, at first glance, benefited those drawn centrally...

...but the stall by stall analysis doesn't entirely back this up, so I wouldn't be too concerned about where my horse was drawn and I'd be more interested in race tactics. And we look against at those 1600+ runners above, the key here is not to dwell early and get left behind...

Sitting just behind the pacemaker(s) is the preferred option, but again like the draw, you'd not be too worried how your horse ran and from which stall, as long as they weren't held up and this is how this field have approached their most recent races...

Those pace scores are probably another nail in the coffin for Johnny Boom winning here and you'd want Poetic Force to run like he did LTO rather than the three previous races. The thing about PF is that he runs off the same mark as a win LTO, even though he drops in class and that should be enough to overcome any pace bias. The fact he's drawn in 11 might also suggest he'd have to tuck in anyway.

Summary

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table and after looking at Instant Expert, I said that I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle and to be true to my word, I think this is a contest between Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force.

Both are in good form, both scored well on Instant Expert, neither are going to set the pace, although Arcadian Nights does have a better pace profile. Poetic Force, however, runs off an unchanged mark from his LTO win whilst dropping in class whilst Arcadian Nights is up 5lbs for a win at this level and some 9lbs higher than his C&D win here three starts ago and the weight/class might just be the difference.

So, it's marginally Poetic Force over Arcadian Nights (reverse forecast, perhaps?) for me with the other place going to any of a half dozen others, about whom I'll return to make a judgement once I've seen the market open.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/03/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 6.50 Dundalk
  • 7.50 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Chelmsford

And I think we'll head back to the Festival, where I can't promise another successful tricast/trifecta, but I'll do my best to unravel the 3.30 Cheltenham, an 11-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ stayers' hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft ground that will be better in places...

The obvious form horse here is Blazing Khal, who has won his last five and both Home By The Lee & Teahupoo come here seeking hat-tricks. Gold Tweet won the Cleeve hurdle on UK debut last time out and Henri le Farceur now makes his UK debut after landing a French Grade 2 hurdle on his last run. Yet despite eight top three finishes from his last eleven runs, Ashdale Bob hasn't won any of them.

None of these have raced in the last month with Klassical Dream and Henri le Farceur both coming off 100days+ layoffs. It's not a handicap, so they'll all carry 11st10lbs, but based on official ratings, that puts Teahupoo best off, a pound clear of Flooring Porter (seeking to win this for the third year in a row) and Klassical Dream.

Ashdale Bob, Dashel Drasher & Henri le Farceur are yet to win over a similar trip, but DD has at least won at Cheltenham before (2m4½f) and Klassical Dream has won here over 2m½f, but is three from four at 2m7½f/3m elsewhere. Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Gold Tweet, Paisley Park and Sire du Berlais have all won over course and distance with Gold Tweet's win in the Cleeve Hurdle ten weeks ago the most recent.

As for class and going, we have Instant Expert on hand...

I'm immediately going to say no to Ashdale Bob on form, going, class and distance, whilst Dashel Drasher is weak on class too, as is Home by the Lee (trip an issue too) and Sire du Berlais has poor soft ground form, hasn't the best Class 1 record and essentially just doesn't win often enough. He owes his yard/owner nothing, but I can't see him figuring here. All of which sounds a bit brutal, but I'm now just considering...

The pace profile for similar past races...

...says that those setting the pace are quite often a target for the others to aim at, as is often the case here at Cheltenham and based on the field's recent runs...

...you'd say Flooring Porter was at the most risk, but the caveat here is that he has made all to win this race in each of the last two years, so I wouldn't be ruling him or any of my five out on pace just yet, meaning we'll need a closer look at them...

BLAZING KHAL took five goes to get off the mark in bumpers, but is foru from four since, winning a couple of grade 2 races here in the process in 2021. Returned from 14 months off to win another gr2 at Navan last month, but this is his his toughest task yet, running at Gr1 for the first time.

FLOORING PORTER knows his way around this track/trip after tapes to post wins in this very race in each of the last two renewals. His preparations haven't gone as well this time around and the standard looks higher here, but he'll be in the mix.

GOLD TWEET ran well in france before coming to the UK for the C&D Cleeve Hurdle almost seven weeks where he relished trip and the soft ground. Still unexposed at the trip and should go well again, even if this is a stronger field.

PAISLEY PARK isn't the horse that won seven on the bounce from Oct '18 to Jan '20, including the 2019 version of this race, but is still a formidable opponent. Has been there or thereabouts again of late, but was almost 10 lengths behind Gold Tweet last time out and with that winner looking capable of more, that possibly rules this runner out.

TEAHUPOO has won a Gr1 and Gr2 in his last two outings, demonstrating his stamina at the trip and on heavy ground and for me, he's probably the one to beat, having beaten Honeysuckle by almsot three lengths in December despite conceding 7lbs.

Summary

You can make a case for all of the five I've still got left in at the moment , but with four places up for grabs, I'm leaving Paisley Park out, as at 11yo, he's just not quite up with the others from which I like Teahupoo the best. Teahupoo is the 10/3 jt fav with Blazing Khal right now with Flooring Porter and Gold Tweet best priced at 11/2 and 11/1 respectively, so I'd be hoping for Teahupoo to win and Gold Tweet would be my E/W option.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/03/23

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A nice 11/1 placer and near 12/1 tricast/trifecta from the opening day of the Festival on Tuesday warmed things up for me nicely, but back to business now.

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have, sadly, generated no runners for me to consider, so I'm going to take a look at the last of the 'free' races, the 7.15 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard going tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this would be a contest between Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds and Lord Rapscallion, but let's see what the card and tools us. None of the field won last time out, but Alexander James was a runner-up and Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion & Swiss Ace all finished third, whilst Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa have all won at least two of their last five outings.

Justcallmepete, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa all drop in class to run here with the other five all have raced at this grade LTO. Both Swiss Ace and Abnaa are note as fast finishers and Archduke Ferdinand makes both a handicap and a UK debut after racing to some success in Sweden, although he was disqualified in each of his last two runs for 'medical irregularities'.

He's also likely to need the run after 199 days off track whilst all his rivals have been seen in the last 1 to 3 weeks and he's up against three former course and distance winners in the shape of Swiss Ace, Gobi Sunset and Abnaa. Alexander James and Walking On Clouds have both won here over a mile and 6f respectively whilst Archduke Ferdinand won over 7f on dirt in Sweden and Lord Rapscallion has a couple of Chelmsford 7f successes to his name.

Instant Expert, as ever, has all the relevant form under these conditions...

...where aside from failing to make the frame on his only previous visit to Newcastle, Lord Rapscallion catches the eye and it should be said that his previous run here was at Class 2 over two years ago! Justcallmepete gets the going, but has a poor record at 7f and the same can be said about Walking On Clouds too, but if we look at place form, there's a school of thought that he might be better than those numbers...

Unusually for a straight 7f track, we do have a bit of a draw bias here...

...where it has been advantageous to be drawn in the higher half of the draw, which will be music to the ears of those following Walking On Clouds and if you can get a high draw here, the prescribed tactics are to race prominently tucked in behind the leader(s), according to the heat map...

...and that's because those races above that we used for the draw stats have been won as follows...

Walking On Clouds is unlikely to race prominently though, as his average pace score from his last four outings suggests more of a mid-division position, but at a 15% strike rate the high draw/mid-div combo doesn't do too shabbily. The stats suggest Lord Rapscallion will keep him company, whilst Abnaa sits out back in a race that Gobi Sunset is likely to set the tempo...

...and if we transpose our horses' running styles onto that heatmap...

...you'd probably say Gobi Sunset from a low draw and Swiss Ace/Walking On Clouds from the higher stalls as the ones catching the eye.

Summary

I started off with the thought that this would be a contest between (in racecard order) Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds & Lord Rapscallion and it was those three plus Abnaa who have been in the best recent form. Lord Rapscallion was the first to emerge from Instant Expert, but when we looked at place form, both Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds came to the fore.

The draw seems to favour Walking On Clouds, Swiss Ace and possibly Abnaa, whilst Swiss Ace probably had the best pace profile and it was he, Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds I noted from the pace/draw heatmap.

So what does that mean? Well, it means that purely on form/namechecks, I'd be siding with Walking On Clouds with Lord Rapscallion as next best. As for another for the frame/tricast etc, it's any of Justcallmepete, Abnaa, Gobi Sunset and Swiss Ace and I think that Abnaa might just be the one. He's down in class, gets weight all round, he's a fast finisher and won over course and distance three starts ago. As along as he's not too far off the pace, he could fly home and grab a place, making a nice 11/1 E/W bet if you're so inclined.

As for my 1-2, Walking On Clouds is a 9/2 shot, which is fair and Lord Rapscallion is an equally fairly priced 8/1. also good for E/W punters.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/03/23

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Tuesday is the day many of you have been waiting almost a year for, as it heralds the opening of this year's Cheltenham Festival, which my colleagues have covered at length elsewhere on the site.

For the purpose of my humble daily column, The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's heavily Cheltenham-weighted Shortlist...

...although Tom Creen and Trac look worth a second glance at Sedgefield, as does Devil's Angel at Newcastle.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.50 Sedgefield
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

...and although I don't generally cover Festival races with them already being 'done' by my colleagues, it would seem remiss of me not to consider the chances of four runners from TS in the first of our free races, the 2.10 Cheltenham, which is a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ novice chase (13 fences) over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

The general feeling here is that this will be a 2-horse contest between El Fabiolo and Jonbon and I'd be surprised if that wasn't the case. I expect the bookies to have them both around the 6/4 mark, which means that we're not getting rich from singles or forecasts, but it does open up the possibility of an E/W bet.

I'm going to set the two prinicpals to one side for now and focus upon the other seven to see who might be worth looking at to make up the places for that E/W bet or for your tricast/trifecta selections, starting with their last runs which saw Ballybreeze and Effernock Fizz come home as winners, whilst Ha D'Or was a 2-length runner-up at Grade 3. And although Ballybreeze did win on chase debut last time out, it was 20 weeks ago and in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 100, so not only might he need the run, he's up three classes and Straw Fan Jack / Effernock Fizz are both up two.

Most of these have raced in the last five weeks or so, but Hollow Games has been off for 11 weeks and Straw Fan Jack for over 15 weeks, so like Ballybreeze, they might not be quite 'race-fit'. Every single runner in this field ahs won over a similar trip tot his one, yet only two of the seven past Cheltenham runners have actually won here; Saint Roi won a Grade 3 2m1f hurdle here at 2020's Festival, Straw Fan Jack won a Class 2 Novice chase over course and distance as recently as October and neither El Fabiolo nor Ha D'Or have visited HQ before.

We've also got the 'complication' of softer than usual ground for the start of the Festival and Instant Expert shows us who has done well/badly on soft ground as well as other useful stats...

Red marks against Ballybreeze, Ha D'Or and Effernock Fizz on soft ground and that latter pair have hardly excelled in Class 1 company, whilst Ha D'Or's record at the trip is also poor.

Pace always plays a big part here at Cheltenham and many runners either go off too quickly and get swallowed up later on or they hang too far off the pace and struggle to make up ground on that long energy-sapping incline before the finish. This is shown to some degree in the follow short distance chase stats from previous meetings...

...where hold-up horses have really taken the brunt of it. Ideally for an E/W runners we want an average pace score of around 2.00 to 3.00 and here's our field's last four runs...

And at this point, I'd have concerns about Dysart Dynamo and Ha D'Or on pace. Pace is also against Ballybreeze, as is the rise in class and his layoff since his last run, whilst Effernock Fizz also faces a rise in class and a poor pace profile. Straw Fan Jack also comes off a lay-off and is up in class, whilst Hollow Games may also need a run, meaning that only Saint Roi has avoided any negatives in the process so far.

He did unseat his rider last time out, but in his penultimate start he did land a Grade 1 contest. That was Hollow Games' last appearance and he was 22 lengths further back. All things considered, I'm having Saint Roi as 'best of the rest'

Summary

We fairly quickly got to Saint Roi being our outlier and at 9/1 with bet365, looks a useful third choice in the race. As for our two at the top of the market, there won't be much in it, but El Fabiolo is rated 3lbs better than Jonbon who in turn scored better on Instant Expert. As for pace, El Fabiolo edges here, as Jonbon might get sucked into an early battle and when the two met at Aintree last year Jonbon only prevailed by a neck, despite El Fabiolo being hampered and then making a mistake.

There won't be much in it, wouldn't a dead heat be exciting? But if push comes to shove, I'm going El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Saint Roi.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 13/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.05 Stratford
  • 2.40 Stratford
  • 4.50 Thurles
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

And as that trio contains a Juvenile Hurdle, an Irish bumper and an A/W novice event, I think I'll look at the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase of 17 fences over a left handed 2m7½f (after an extra furlong for rail adjustments) on soft ground that is better in places...

GO STEADY has made the frame in half of his 18 chase outings, going on to win a very creditable six times (all on good to soft or 'worse'). He now drops in class and weight after finishing in mid-division at Kempton 16 days ago and has a win and a place from his last two runs at this grade. Gets on well with this jockey and shouldn't be bothered by underfoot conditions.

WHYDAH GALLY was a useful hurdler last season finishing 321F1 at Classes 3 & 4, but has failed to make much impact this season since being asked to jump fences. He was pulled up 4 out at Taunton at the end of last year in a race sandwiched by defeats of 27 and 20 lengths. Not sure he gets the trip over fences either.

NATIVE ROBIN is, at 13yo, surely in the twilight of a decent enough career that has seen him win 11 of 36 over fences, but since winning by just over a length in a Class 3, 2m4½f chase at Wincanton 13 months ago, has gone down by 19, 40, 33, 38 and 28 lengths in five successive defeats since and he's never raced as far as he'll asked to here, but does drop in class.

RAKHINE STATE is a late convert to chasing, as this 10yr old only tackled a fence for the first time when 3rd of 11 over 2m5f at Southwell at the end of November, which was a good effort considering he'd been off for 502 days. He followed that up with another third place finish next/last time out 66 days ago, but he did halve the margin of defeat from 20L to 10L, but would need to improve further to land a chase win at the third time of asking and he's another who has never gone this far.

RESERVE TANK started his chasing career by finishing 212 in three Class 1 (Lst/Gr2/Gr2) Novice events in Oct/Nov 2019, but has results of PFPPP47 since, which is hardly inspiring. Interspersed amongst those seven chase failures, he ahs also raced eleven times over hurdles, making the frame just once in a run of form reading 5PP528P6433, making one place and eight incomplete runs from eighteen starts. I suspect that first-time blinkers won't work a miracle here.

ANIMAL got off the mark over fences at the third attempt, landing a 2m6f soft ground affair at Fakenham on New Year's Day 2022 and despite a run of five defeats since (36337), he's still 3lbs higher than that win and his record higher than Class 5 is lamentable.

ICAQUE DE L'ISLE was first and third in back to back six-runner 2m2f chases at Aix-Les-Bains in June/July of last year, but has failed to score in three attempts since crossing the channel. He was a well beaten (41 lengths) 3rd of 5 over a soft ground 3m at Ffos Las in early November, but got to within 10 lengths of the winner on Boxing Day, when 2nd of 8 over 2m4f at Huntingdon (gd to soft) and got closer still next/last time out at Hereford five weeks ago, when beaten by 4.5 lengths over 2m5f on good ground. Eased a pound here and getting weight all round, he is improving but the going and the trip are a concern.

Instant Expert shows the field's record in similar conditions, but based on the above, I'm not expecting much positivity...

Short of his third placed finish here on his only previous visit to Stratford, Go Steady is probably the eyecatcher, although the sadly out of form veteran Native Robin does have some good numbers from his past. Elsewhere there are some tales of woe for Animal at this level and on this going and there's far too many red blocks for my liking, perhaps the place stats will look better?

Well, Go Steady and Native Robin are still very strong and you can start to make a case for both Animal and Icaque de L'isle to make the frame, but they've got improvement to make here. The feature of the day is PACE, of course and our pace analyser tells us that in similar races to this, leaders have been hauled in by the pack and have generally been defeated, whilst hold-up horses have struggled to make ground up...

...suggesting an average pace score in the 2.00 to 3.00 region might well be advantageous. If wee look at this field's most recent efforts...

...it looks like Native Robin will be the one setting the pace with most of the field keeping in touch not too far away ready to engulf him in the closing stages. That's likely to be his downfall and it's also likely to be tough for the likes of Rakhine State and Animal from the back.

Summary

Quite simply, I like Go Steady here. A very competent chaser down in class and weight, no issues with the ground or the trip and gets on well with today's rider and the 9/2 available at 6.30pm on Sunday was a bit of a pleasant surprise.

Elsewhere, pace is likely to be the undoing of Native Robin, Rakhine State and Animal and neither are in great form anyway, leaving Whydah Gally, Icaque de l'isle and Reserve Tank as the challengers for second spot. I have doubts about Whydah Gally getting the trip and although unexposed over fences, hasn't got close to winning whilst Reserve Tank is in a horrible run of form.

All of which almost be default leads us to the French 5yr old Icaque de l'isle, who has yet to win in the UK but is slowly improving. I think he'll go well here if getting the trip and I've no doubts he's going to win races, but might have to settle for silver here, although the bookies disagree with me and have him as the fav at prices around the 2/1 mark, which seem a little skinny.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/03/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of runners for both the 1-year form and course 5-year filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 3.05 Hereford
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 4.20 Gowran Park
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...and with a couple of my TJC Report qualifiers running in 'free' races it makes sense to focus on one of those. The Sandown race is clearly the better standard, but 17-runner novice handicaps aren't really my bag, so let's focus on the 3.55 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good/good to soft ground...

Joint youngest (with Donna's Double) Readysteadybeau is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Glittering Love was a runner-up beaten by just a head. Cash To Ash, Strong Economy, Glittering Love and Crixus's Escape are all winless in five and the latter in one of a few with plenty of letter in their formline, as his last seven races contain 4 x pulled up and a last of seven. Perversely, he was a runner-up in the other two!

Plenty of Class movement here, as only top-weight Fortified Bay, Donna's Double, Strong Economy and Readysteadybeau ran at Class 3 LTO with Just Don't Know and Niceandeasy both dropping down a class and Cash To Ash, Glittering Love & Crixus's Escape all up from Class 4, which doesn't inspire confidence in latter who has failed to complete his last two at a lower grade.

LTO winner Readysteadybeau wears a visor for the first time here, whilst bottom weight Crixus's Escape returns from an eight break during which he had wind surgery, but he's not the one who has been away from the track the longest as Niceandeasy (71 days), Strong Economy (122d) and Glittering Love (72d) all come off 10+ weeks absences. The rest of the field have raced in the last 24-40 days and they might well have the edge being more "match-fit" to steal a footballing term.

All of them have had some success at course, distance or both. Fortified Bay is the only one yet to win here, but has won at Newcastle over three miles. Of the remaining eight runners, all bar Donna's Double and Readysteadybeau are former course and distance winners, with Niceandeasy winning this race last year and Cash To Ash winning the year before! Donna's Double dis win a 2m4½f chase here whilst Readysteadybeau has won a 2m5½f chase here and a 3m½f hurdle at Haydock. As for their records over fences on similar ground conditions and class, we always have Instant Expert...

...which as well as highlighting lots of great course form does ask some questions about several of these. This race was a Class 4 contest when Niceandeasy and Cash To Ask won it recently and neither have won a Class 3 chase yet and are a combined 0 from 11, but that's not as bad as Strong Economy & Glittering Love's total of 1 win from 16. These numbers put all four at risk here and Cash To Ash's record over this trip is pretty poor too at 2 from 16, as is the 1 from 7 scored by Crixus's Escape, whose form has been so bad (11 without a win) that he's now some 22lbs lower than his last winning mark.

In terms of the ideal pace profile here, we're looking for a horse that likes to be up with the pace if this is anything to go by...

...with those running in mid-div or further back winning just 6 of 108, as opposed to 20 front-end winners from 105 winning almost 3.5 times as often and that's going to suit the likes of Just Don't Know, Fortified Bay, Cash To Ash and Readysteadybeau, based on recent outings...

Summary

The pace angle is going to be so important here and I think the top four on the pace chart is the place to start. My first job, of course, is to get rid of one of them for my top three shortlist and it's a pretty easy call to eject Fortified Bay from proceedings based on his inconsistency (3 x PU in his last 7)and the fact he's top weight.

So, we have three and whilst Cash to Ash is still in my mix, I don't see him repeating his 2021 success this time. He's only 2 from 23 over fences but has made the frame 11 times (47.8%) showing that he's essentially a near-miss type generally worth backing E/W or for a place, but not a winner. He's currently 7/1 here, which is borderline for my own E/W confort zone, but you can make your own call on the price.

All of which brings us to Just Don't Know and Readysteadybeau, who'll both be very prominent here and there's not much between them, but Just Don't Know runs off the same mark as LTO (Ready is up 2lbs), JDK scored slightly better on Instant Expert, drops in class and is a former course and distance winner and I think that his current (4.25pm) 5/1 price with both Bet365 & Hills represents better value than his rivals 5/2 & 3/1, so it'd be Just Don't Know for me here.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 3.10 Ayr
  • 3.20 Wolverhampton
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Kempton

...and I think we'll see how track specialist Satin Snake might get on in the 6.00 Kempton, an 8-runner (Porfin doesn't go), Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices Handicap over a right handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

No LTO winners on display here, but feature horses Satin Snake was a runner-up 7 days ago and bottom weight Jupiter Express was also a runner-up 8 days ago. Both also won two starts ago and both have 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from their last five five, making them the 'form horses'. Conversely, The Green Man is winless in 6, Impeach has lost his last 8 and it's a losing streak of 16 races over almost two years for Gobi Sunset.

The two 'form' horses both step up a class here, but The Green Man, Mamillius and Gobi Sunset all drop a level after failing to make the frame on their most recent outings. Stockpyle might need the run after a five-month break during which he was gelded, but aside from Mamillius' three month absence, the others have all raced in the last month with both Satin Snake and Jupiter Express running in March already.

Stockpyle and Satin Snake are the only ones yet to win at this trip, but the latter is just one of two previous winners (finishes of 31211 over 7f!), along with Melly's Flyer who is 2 from 3 over course and distance. In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells me that on the A/W, five of these have won on standard to slow going and four of them have won at Class 4...

Aside from being 0 from 3 at this trip, you can see why Satin Snake is the H4C horse here, Elsewhere, I have worries over Mamillius (class/trip), Impeach (going/class) and Gobi Sunset (generally but class here) and as Mamillius might need the run after a lay-off, Impeach is on a run of 0 from 8 and Gobi Sunset 0 from 16, I'm crossing them off the list here, leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 7 & 8 and in similar past races here at Kempton, this is how the draw has worked out...

.suggesting that Mellys Flyer is at somewhat of a disadvantage and that Satin Snake might also not have the best of it, but good news for The Green Man, if nothing else. 23.5 wins would be par, so stalls 4 & 5 are neither badly nor well considered here. Interestingly, Satin Snake has won here from stall 7 before and also from stall 13, which is somewhere out near Kempton cricket club, so it might well be the race tactics are more important here and they say...

...that the further forward you can race the better from both a win and place perspective, which based on this field's recent endeavours...

...is less good news for The Green Man than before, but some respite for Satin Snake, whose average pace score from his last five visits here is 3.40. We have the draw and the pace covered, but how they interact may also offer some clues, so here's the heat map for this race...

...suggesting that a highly drawn runner's best chance of success is to get out quickly, as Satin Snake has done here in the past. When we combine today's drawn with the field's last four runs anywhere, we get...

...and although those drawn lower than Satin Snake look better placed, he does have the right pace profile if not the best draw.

Summary

It's hard to get away from the two 'form' horses, Satin Snake and Jupiter Express and they might well be the first two home. Satin Snake ticks plenty of boxes, but is relatively poorly drawn (although only two wide of Jupiter) and is 3lbs higher than his last win, which was by 0.75 lengths. Jupiter Express also brings similar form to the table, but lacks experience and was raised 4lbs for a half-length success. He's slightly worse treated than Satin and with his rivals record here at Kempton, it's Satin Snake for me, but Jupiter should definitely make the frame if not the runners-up spot.

Sadly, as I'm a bit later (6.15pm) than normal, the price on Satin Snake has gone and he's now the 9/4 fav although that's where I'd have him, along with the 7/2 about Jupiter Express. The bookies are giving us anything, but they're being fair here and the reverse forecast might pay reasonably.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Carlisle
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.25 Thurles

...from which I'm ignoring Carlisle (weather) and Thurles (not a fan of Irish racing) and I'm going with the 1.30 Wincanton, a 7-runner, Class 3,  5yo+ handicap where they'll go right handed over 21 fences on good ground, that is reportedly firmer in places, but showers are forecast. The trip is just shy of 3m1½f after a 60yd rail movement and here's the card...

Stormy Flight and Windance both won last time out, whilst Bbold, Minella Buster and No Hubs No Hoobs all failed to complete their races, but the latter did at least win two starts back and only Trixster is winless in five, despite being one of just two (along with Stormy Night) to not have an incomplete run in that time.

Three of these (Valsheda 5th LTO, Bbold & Minella Buster both pulled up) ran at this Class last tim, but three (LTO winners Stormy Flight & Windance plus 6th placed Trixster) step up a level and bottom weight No Hubs No Hoobs is up two classes after a fall here over C&D when he reportedly bled.

He had, however won over course and distance here two starts back, on Boxing Day, making him the only C&D winner in the pack. None of the others have won here, but three (Bbold, Windance & Trixster) have won over a similar trip to this one. No Hubs No Hoobs' C&D last run was two months ago now, but Bbold and Minella Buster have been off longer at 73 days, with the remainder all seen in the last month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert condenses the relevant form profile of the field into a simple to view graphic, which for all NH races looks like this...

...where Stormy Flight has struggled to win at Class 3 (50% place strike rate, though) and is up 9lbs for that last win and Trixster looks ill at ease with the class & distance. Minella Buster is also 9lbs higher than his last win four starts back, but the relatively unexposed Windance is only raised 3lbs for a 16-length success at Fontwell a months ago.

Chase form alone  looks like this...

...where some of the figures don't look as bad if we ignore hurdling form.

Past similar contests have not been kind to hold-up horses...

...but a fairly even amount of success has been shared by those adoption a different running-style. This field's last four outings look like this...

...and bottom weight No Hubs No Hoobs looks the most likely to be the back marker, but I should add that quite a few of these have inconsistent styles.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but the two LTO winners, Stormy Flight & Windance have to be the two to focus on. There's not really anything jumping out from what I've written above.

STORMY FLIGHT seems to have got his head around chasing and has been a runner-up and then a winner in his last two otuings after a fairly indifferent ten races since winning over hurdles at Uttoxeter almost three years ago. He won quite comfortably lkast time out, getting home by six lengths, but is up in class here and rated 9lbs better, which might eat plenty of a six-length win.

WINDANCE won back to back handicap hurdles in March 2021, but was off track for 580 days from his last hurdle run (May '21) to making his chase debut just three months ago. It took a couple of attempts over fences to get it right, but he won by 16 lengths at Fontwell a month ago, easing right down in the process, yet is only raised 3lbs here.

There's not really a great deal between the two and both won LTO and both are up in class and weight, but Stormy Flight is up 9lbs for a 6-length win and Windance is only up 3lbs for a 16-length romp. He's less exposed (10 races to 24) and with Anthony Honeyball's runners in such great form over the last month, I'm siding with Windance over Stormy Flight.

The bookies disagree and both Bet365 and Hills have Windance at 3/1 with Stormy Flight at 5/4 and 13/8. Both firms are paying three places here and the 7/1 Minella Buster and/or the 9/1 Valsheda might make foir decent E/W bets, especially if the latter gets a lead.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/03/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fontwell
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.20 Catterick
  • 5.35 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated the following runners on 3o-day form for me to consider...

...and of the free races and those appearing on my TS report, the 3.10 Fontwell looks the best on paper. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m 3f 67yds (after +18yd rail movement) on good ground that will be softer in places...

Bottom-weight Lifetime Legend was a seven-length winner at Catterick eight days ago and Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Kotmask and Pearly Island all had top three finishes last time out. Forever Blessed and Maclaine were both unplaced on handicap debuts LTO and now have a second crack with the latter having had wind surgery, whilst Guernesey makes a yard debut for Team Tizzard.

Pyramid Place's third place run three weekas ago was at Class 2, so he should appreciate a class drop, but Kotmask, Runswick Bay and Maclaine all step up one level from Class 4, whilst Lifetime Legend's LTO win was at Class 5. The card says that Krypton Gold is up three classes but that's from a run on the A/W, his last hurdles contest was at this level.

Forever Blessed has had a 15-week break and Runswick Bay has been off for ten weeks, but the rest have all raced in the last two months with Lifetime Legend's win eight days ago the most recent run of them all. We've no course and ditance winners, but those who have won here are Kotmask and Maclaine who have both won 2m2f hurdles here. Elsewhere, Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Runswick Bay, Pearly Island and Lifetime Legend have all been successful over similar trips to this one, whilst Instant Expert has the details re: going and class form...

...and it's a fairly uninspiring picture, I think I need to see place results before commenting further!

That looks much better, but Pearly Island looks very weak on both going and trip, Guernesey doesn't look as bad as on win form, but I'd like to focus on runners 3 to 6 here ie

Of these four...

PYRAMID PLACE has made the frame in 9 of 17 over hurdles, winning four times and has finished 3213 in his last four. He was raised 4lbs for his last win and despite a step up in class, only went down by two lengths at Wetherby recently. Down in class off the same has to put him in with a shout.

KRYPTON GOLD ran over 1m4f on the A/W most recently and that's not relly relevant to his chances here. His record over hurdles over the last year or so is very consistent finishing 21322235 with that last run being marred by a bad mistake two out when challenging. He doesn't win often enough and is probably as high in the weights as he can afford, but definite place potential.

KOTMASK might well be the one to beat here, he's unexposed after just seven starts from which he has made the frame four times, including two wins from his first two outings. He then found handicap racing a little tougher, but he has improved race by race, finishing 432 in his last three and he looks well placed for a big run here.

RUNSWICK BAY is arguably the weakest of this quartet, but has still placed in three of six over hurdles. part of the issue here is that since 6th April 2021, he has only raced three times (all over fences) and just twice since winning at Ludlow 17 months ago. He was off for over a year aftere that win and was beaten by 15 lengths on his comeback and was then pulled up when last seen on Boxing Day. No run for ten weeks now and hasn't tackled a hurdle in almost two years, he's hard to fancy up in class.

This type of race has been won in the past by those preferring to be further forward...

...and although there's no real pace in this field (suggesting a potential for a falsely run affair), Kotmask would be best suited of my highlighted quartet based on recent exploits...

...and it might well be left to Maclaine to set the fractions, whilst the other three I highlighted will all have work to do, if there is any pace.

Summary

After Instant Expert, I highlighted a 4-runner segment and i think that this is where I want to be with this group. I'd exclude Runswick Bay for reasons that should be obvious now and I'd probably have perennial placer Krypton Gold as least likely of my 1-2-3, leaving me to choose between Kotmask and Pyramid Place, with the former edging it on the pace aspect.

Kotmask is currently the 4/1 second favourite with Hills (only book open at 3.40pm), half a point longer than Pyramid Place and although two others are priced at 4/1 and 5/1, I think it's between these two here, meaning a small reverse forecast might pay off.

As for Krypton Gold, he's no stranger to making the frame and at 9/1, might well be the E/W play.

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