Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/03/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

Your first 30 days for just £1

  • 2.05 Cork
  • 2.35 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow

The first of the two UK races above is a Novice event, so I'm going to have a look at the 5.20 Ludlow, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in 11 flights over a right-handed 2m5½f on good to soft ground, that is soft in places with showers forecast...

My initial thoughts were that Your Band might be out of his depth, but that the other half dozen might well only be separated by a few points in the market, giving us a nice competitive contest.

Sole mare Malaita is the only LTO winner in the field, but she's up a class here, as is Duke of Moravia, who made the frame last time and now makes a second handicap appearance. It's also Amrons Sage's second crack at a handicap, whilst Spring Meadow is on handicap debut.

Top-weight Whatsupwithyou was a runner-up less than three weeks ago and now drops in class, whilst Spring Meadow and No No Tango also made the frame last time. Duke of Moravia has been away from the track the longest at almost twelve weeks, but that's no real cause for concern.

The mare Malaita is the only former course winner, having landed a bumper in May 2021 on her second career start, whilst Whatsupwithyou's win at Ascot on debut in December 2019 is the only win at this trip achieved by the entire field. Feature of the day Instant Expert also tells us that just two of the seven have won on good to soft or soft ground so far and that just three of them are Class 4 winners...

Spring Meadow looks strongest here in a weak set of results, but we'll probably learn more from place form...

My main concerns here are Whatsupwithyou on the softer ground, yet closer analysis is contradictory. He's made the frame in four of vive on good ground, so you'd say he wants it quicker than this, but his win on debut was over this trip on heavy ground. Elsewhere, Malaita might struggle with the quality of the race, as her best form (inc that LTO win) has been at Class 5, but she was a runner-up at Hereford thirteen months ago off just one pound lower than today.

She won from the front last time out and is likely to be up with the pace again here, if her last four outings are anything to go by (see below), but this might be tricky, now she's up in trip by 3.5 furlongs. Of the others, No No Tango looks the likeliest to be the early back-marker...

...and back-markers have fared worst in similar past races, according to our pace analyser...

...which looks weighted towards leaders.

Summary

Overall, the two I like(d) best are/were Whatsupwithyou and No No Tango, but neither come without risks. The former hasn't gone well on good to soft/soft ground, but has won on heavy. He's got a good pace profile for this contest, has won at this trip, is in decent form and drops in class. The latter is a regular placer in good nick, but might well be left with too much to do.

Aside from this two, Spring Meadow also made some appeal with two wins and a place from his last four and a prominent racing style, but his jumping hasn't been great and he's hardly thrown in off a mark of 188 for his handicap debut, so I'll stick with my initial pair and side with the 9/2 Whatsupwithyou to edge out the equally-priced No No Tango.

 

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1