Racing Insights, Monday 20/03/23 geegeez.co.uk

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

2.10 Taunton
3.25 Navan
3.45 Taunton

The latter of the two UK races appeal most to me both generally and from a pace perspective and whilst it's a small field, the race looks pretty competitive in the 3.45 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

Jpr One has two wins and a runner-up finish from five so far with wins over 2m1f at Exeter and over 2m3½f. Well beaten in his last two efforts, both at Graded level, he now drops two classes for a second crack at a handicap a full year and five days after he was last seen. Will probably need the run.

Mr Grey Sky won both bumper starts (Dec '18) and won back to back short distance hurdles in Jan/Feb '22, but hasn't tackled a hurdle for a year and has ran just once fences since then, finishing last of six at Hereford just before Christmas.

Zambezi Fix won LTO just over three weeks ago, when first home by a neck at Chepstow over today's trip, after been a heavy ground runner-up on his previous run in January. Up 4lbs here, but still expected to be in the mix.

Libberty Hunter had two wins and a place from four bumpers and his hurdles form reads 231 (all at Chepstow). He was only beaten by a length in a 15-runner contest on hurdles debut over today's trip in early November, but a step up to 2m3½f somewhat caught him short a month later, but another one month break and a drop back to today's trip saw him get off the mark over hurdles with a 1.25 length success. Up one class for his handicap debut here.

In The Air won over this trip on hurdles debut just over a year ago, but hasn't really shone since, finishing 6th of 9 at Aintree (over 100 lengths down) in a Grade 1, then falling at Fontwell prior to a 12 length defeat (6th of 9) at Ascot four months ago. No run since then and although down in class, might toil here.

Mamoom Star made the frame in his first two bumpers including a Listed race at Cheltenham at the start of 2022. He was then well beaten in two more bumpers before winning on hurdling debut last November here at Taunton (Class 4, 2m1f). Subsequently just 6th of 10 (45 lengths) at Kempton on Boxing Day, he then dropped two classes t0 run third of eight at Sandown a month ago. Now back up in class for his handicap debut.

All of which translates to a bit of a mixed bag form-wise...

Zambezi Fix looks unsuited by the trip, but has made the frame in four of his twelve defeats and with so little to go on from a win perspective, I think place form might help us more...

...where Zambeai Fix now looks more of a consistent, experienced performer, but it's Libberty Hunter catching the eye despite this being a class and course debut.

Feature of the day is pace and below you can see the pace scores from each runner's last four outings alongside a composite of their average score...

...suggesting Mr Grey Sky is likely to set the tempo of the contest, whilst Jpr One, In The Air and Zambezi Fix are all likely to be waited with. I've looked at past similar races and they haven't been kind to back markers...

Summary

You've probably guessed that I haven't spend long on this race and that's because you shouldn't be poring over small field low quality contests. Quickly ascertain if there's a bet for you and then move on is the Geegeez way!

I think there could be a bet here on Libberty Hunter. Up in class for a handicap debut, but in good form, scored well on IE place form and has the right kind of pace profile here. He's 11/4 with Bet365 (Sunday 7pm) and that's a bit longer than I expected, which is good.

As for a runner-up/placer/forecast horse, I did like Zambezi Fix initially, but a poor record at the trip and him being held-up have put me off so Mamoon Star might be the one at 13/2. He'll have to overcome a step up in class, but is running well and gets the trip readily.

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