Racing Insights, Monday 08/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.08 Wincanton
  • 4.30 Lingfield

...from which I've selected the 4.08 Wincanton as it's the highest-rated race of the four. It's an 8-runner (Dartmoor Pirate doesn't run), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Home Free has made the frame in each of his five starts to dates, getting off the mark with a 14-lengths success at Lingfield five weeks agao when last seen, whilst Toss Of A Coin is 2 from 2 under rules having justified his odds on favouritism in both starts since leaving his pointing days behind (he also won his last PTP). All the field have won at least one of their last seven races, though and all have had at least one run since the 10th February.

LTO winner Home Free steps up a class for his handicap debut (it's also Toss of a Coin's handicap bow), but both Bourbali (PU LTO) and Issam (15th of 16) drop down a level from Class 2, whilst top-weight Hardy Du Seuil is down two classes after being pulled up in Grand Annual at this year's Cheltenham Festival almost four weeks ago. Issam will also wear cheekpieces for the first time today.

Monviel is the only former course winner, having landed a Class 4, 1m7½f, maiden hurdle back in January 2022, mind you only Bourbali (7th of 16 and 2nd of 5 in two visits) of his rivals have been here before, but three of them; Hardy du Seuil, Bourbali and Toss of a Coin have won over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert tells us that only Home Free isn't running off a higher mark than his last win and that he along with Monviel and Toss of a Coin have already won on heavy ground...

...although if truth be told, we've not actually got a great deal of relevant past races to deal with. The trip looks like it has started to be a bit of an issue for American Sniper and Issam, who are a cumulative 0 from 10, although they have both made the frame in three of their defeats...

Feature of the day is, of course, the pace data and we can look at this in two ways. Firstly we can see how similar past races (if there are any) have unfolded via the Pace Analyser, which today says...

...that in 6-10 runner, heavy ground hurdles here at Wincanton over 2m2f to 2m6f (we widen the parameters to give a more workable dataset), that it really paid to be setting the tempo (pace) of the race. This is of course, very useful knowledge, if you know which horses like to lead and which don't.

Thankfully the second facet to our pace offering is the actual pace tab on the race card itself and clicking that will give you something like this...

...suggesting the main pace here is with Toss of a Coin, Bourbali and Monviel, whilst Home Free made all in his comprehensive win last time out.

Summary

Pace and race suitability are key here and Toss of a Coin, Bourbali, Monviel and Home Free are the ones likely to be setting the tempo of the contest and they were the four that make most sense from the Instant Expert data, so they form the half of the field that I'd want to be with here.

You could make a case for all four and I suspect it'll be a decent contest, but having seen the 5.40pm odds...

...it'd be Home Free at 5/1 for me. He looks to have been very leniently treated for his handicap debut and will no doubt need to fend off a few rivals to win, but the price is attractive, as is the 12/1 about Bourbali. Whilst he has struggled over fences this winter, he was a runner-up in a Class 2 contest over this trip on his last hurdles outing, albeit a year ago. Any semblance of that kind of form gives him a chance of making the frame and he's a better horse than 12/1, so he could be a profitable E/W angle.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and sadly they have only generated one runner for me to check out under 1-year form...

...but thankfully as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 2.25 Kelso
  • 2.40 Kempton
  • 4.45 Kelso
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

...and although it has more runners than I'm normally comfortable with, the best of those four races above looks like the 2.40 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

Intinso and Valsad both won last time out and Cannon Rock comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Old Peculier was a runner-up on his UK debut follwing three straight wins at Dundalk and Old Harrovian has won two of his last three, having been denied a hat-trick when switched to turf for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury last May.

Which, of course, means that he now makes a comeback after 322 days off the track, so he might be a little rusty here, as might Captain Wierzba after his own 337-day break, during which he was gelded. Chillingham, Laafi, Londoner and Killybegs Warrior are also without a run in 2024, having been rested for 135, 147, 169 and 175 days respectively.

Most of these did race at Class 2 last time out, but Valsad and the fast-finisher Youthful King step up from Class 3 and Cannon Rock is up two classes here, but a stated above, Old Harrovian last ran at Group 3 and now wears a tongue-tie for the first time as he drops to down in class to become one of three handicap debutants (Captain Wierzba and Cannon Rock are the others), whilst Duc de Kent's second UK appearance will be his second handicap effort after a winter in Bahrain where he failed to make the frame in four attempts.

Londoner makes a yard debut for Jim Goldie and has been gelded since leaving Aidan O'Brien, for whom he was a runner-up on his last outing. Cemhaan is the only previous course winner (over 1m4f) of the four (Killybegs Warrior, Youthful King & Dream Harder being the others), but three of the field (Youthful King, Dream Harder & Old Peculier) have won over a similar trip.

The field's 2-year form under today's conditions looks like this...

...which is a little bit sketchy to say the least, although Cemhaan and Intinso tick some boxes. I do suspect that in a 14-runner field where the bookies will pay 4 or even 5 places, that we might be better off seeing if we can find one to make the frame before we consider a winner, so here are the place stats from those races above...

...and whilst the field is generally quite inexperienced under these conditions, there are still positives to take from the data, but I think I'd want to eliminate Killybegs Warrior, Duc de Kent, Londoner, Captain Wierzba, Dream Harder and Laafi at this point, which should make the picture a little clearer for me and leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 13 over a course and distance that despite not having a huge draw bias...

...has seemed to favour those drawn in stalls 1 to 8 in terms of the PRB3 scores, which mightn't be great news for Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from the eight runners I'm still looking at, although I suspect that in a big field like this race positioning and tactics aka 'pace' will have a huge bearing on the result. If we therefore look back at this 100+ races above that I used for the draw analysis, there's a clear definition of what works best here...

...and if we then look at this field's last few runs...

...the ones that interest me from a pace profile would be the first six on that list plus Chillingham and Old Harrovian, as I'm looking for a 4-race pace average of 3.00 or higher or three scores of 3+ from four runs.

Summary

I used Instant Expert to whittle the field from fourteen to eight runners, who in draw order were Intinso, Cannon Rock, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan, Chillingham, Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from which Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier seemed disadvantaged by the draw, whilst the pace make-up of the race doesn't seem to suit Cannon Rock, Youthful King and Old Peculier.

If I remove those that seem unsuited by pace and/or draw, I'm left with four runners who the stats suggest have a good chance of making the frame here : Intinso, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan and Chillingham and to be perfectly honest, I'd be happy to back all of them to at least get placed. I think Intinso and Old Harrovian are much better than the other two and they're actually my 1-2 here.

Sadly, the 5.30pm market agrees with on those two, albeit they have them the other way around...

...so we've not managed to unearth something nobody else has spotted, I'm afraid, but Chillingham and Cemhaan are both interesting at 8's and 16's respectively, particularly the latter at that price, especially if you can get five places from your bookie.

Racing Insights, Friday 05/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one UK qualifier..

...but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards as follows...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Fontwell
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 5.50 Wexford
  • 8.30 Dundalk

...from which I'm going to look at Ewan Whillans' Scots Poet, who should be used to the surroundings for the 6.40 Musselburgh, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f and 87yds on soft ground...

Top-weight Russian Virtue comes here on a hat-trick and has three wins and a place from his last four. he has made the frame in each of his last ten NH outings, winning six times, but this has propelled his mark from 85 to today's 114! Coup de Coeur won last time out and is two from four and both Scots Poet and Beaumesnil also come here off the back of wins.

Those without a win in their visible form line are Collingham, Hartur D'Oudairies, Restandbethankful, Mack The Man and The Navigator who are on NH losing runs of 7, 8, 6, 11 and 12 races respectively.

Not one of these actually raced at this grade last time out and all of them bar Scots Poet (up one class) are up at least two classes here with three (Beausmesnil, Mack The Man And Serious Ego) making a triple step up, which wouldn't bode well for Mack the Man breaking his 11-race drought.

Most of the field have raced inside the last seven weeks, but Restandbethankful, Scots Poet and The Navigator now return from breaks of 62, 95 and 160 days respectively with the latter now probably needing a run to get race-fit : not ideal when you've lost your last dozen!

Seven of the field have already won here at Musselburgh and seven (not all the same horses) have scored over a similar trip to this one, but only Cuban Cigar and The Navigator have scored over course and distance and Instant Expert shows us who has done what over this going/class/course/distance over the last two years...

In-form and top-weight Russian Virtue has yet to won at Class 2, but he should certainly relish the ground and the trip and the same can be said about H4C horse Scots Poet, of course. Cuban Cigar has a reasonable record across the board, but I'm hoping the place stats from those races above will be more helpful...

...and they certainly are, even if only to tell me to concentrate on the upper half of the card. I expect most bookies to pay 4 places on this race, so focusing on just seven should simplify the task of at least finding a placer or two.

Our next thing to consider is how the race might pan out in a competitive-looking 13-runner contest on soft ground, where race tactics/tempo aka 'pace' might be a contributory or even deciding factor. Our pace analyser tells us that similar past races have gone like this...

...with horses running in mid-division or further back really struggling to land any kind of blow, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...would make life difficult for any from Hartur D'Oudairies downwards.

Summary

From Instant Expert, we highlighted Collingham, Coup de Coeur, Cuban Cigar, Duyfken, Final Edgar, Russian Virtue and Scots Poet, whilst those at the sharper end of the pace charts were Collingham, Coup de Coeur, Duyfken, Final Edgar, Restandbethankful and Russian Virtue.

Scots Poet is, of course, our H4C qualifier and was also one of our 'form' horses along with Russian Virtue, Coup de Coeur and Beaumesnil.

A quick tally up says that Coup de Coeur, Scots Poet and Russian Virtue tick more boxes than the others, so they'd be my three against the field and I'd probably take them in that order today. Only Hills had prices at 3pm Thursday, but they seem to agree with me about the 1-2 here and that Russian Virtue is less likely to succeed...

I'm not sure yet which way to go about the 1-2, I might dutch them, but Russian Virtue looks like my E/W selection. As for the others on my shortlist, Collingham, Duyfken and Final Edgar make more appeal than Cuban Cigar from an E/w perspective and all are at very backable odds.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.10 Naas
  • 3.55 Warwick
  • 4.15 Naas
  • 4.38 Clonmel
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...from which, I've selected the 8.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this looks pretty open for a lowly Class 6 contest, but that the winner might well come from the bottom end of the card, although only 6lbs separates the first eight of the nine runners, of whom Classic Speed and Crafter both won last time out.

Malacanne and Snooze Lane both won two starts ago and the latter made the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst top-weight Coolree was a runner-up on his last start and now wears blinkers for the first time in a bid to end a run of seven defeats. Light Up Our Stars and Zumaaty are also on long losing runs, having lost 12 and 10 on the bounce respectively. Both of these should benefit from a drop in class and three others (top-weight Coolree, The Pug & Graffiti) also all drop down from Class 5 here, whilst Graffiti will now carry a 7lb claimer effectively taking him back to his last winning mark (7 off 65 today vs 3 off 61 over course and distance in November).

All nine runners have been seen inside the last 7-33 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue for any of them and more than half (5) of the field have already scored over course and distance, but Coolree, The Pug and Classic Speed have yet to win over either track or trip, whilst Light Up Our Stars has won here over 7f and 1m½f, albeit not since October. and these course/distance wins (or lack of) lead us nicely into our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...which says that over the last couple of years, most of this field have performed reasonably well under today's conditions, although Coolree is 0 from 7 on the A/W. Light Up Our Stars is 3 from 21 here at Wolverhampton, but has won just 1 of 13 here over the last two years and has been beaten in all six efforts at similar trips. The Pug is also light on wins at track/trip, but has three wins in this grade. That said, none of them are in the red at Class 6, as Coolree drops to this level for the first time and we've no red at all from the bottom four in the weights.

From a place perspective, those races above highlight the consistency of Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug...

Of those four regular placers, Zumaaty, Crafter and Graffiti are drawn lowest of all nine runners here, but our draw analyser suggests that horses coming from the centre of the stalls might have more going for them in terms of assistance from the draw...

And if we look at how those 150+ races have been won, we're told that whilst there's not a huge pace bias, horses running just off the leaders or in mid-division have fared best...

...suggesting that leaders make the frame quite often, but appear to get overhauled mate on (only 30% of placers were winners), whilst prominent runners make the frame more often and win more often overall. Yet, it's the mid-division runners who convert more places (38.8%) into wins. The inference about hold-up horses is that they end up with too much work to do, which based on recent outings...

...might not great news for Crafter, nor Classic Speed, yet the collective pace/draw heat map from those previous Wolverhampton races would suggest that Classic Speed could do very well here along with The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars, who appear to be best suited...

Summary

The ones who caught the eye on form were Classic Speed and Crafter who both won last time out, along with Snooze Lane ( a win and a place from his last two) and Graffiti (placed twice in his last three), whilst it was Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug who were highlighted by Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map seems to favour Classic Speed, The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars and it is from these three categories that I'm going to choose.

Classic Speed, Crafter and The Pug are all mentioned twice there, but Graffiti is the one that would appear to tick all three boxes.

I'd no odds available at 4.15pm on Wednesday, but a tissue made up from the average odds predicted by Oddschecker, Timeform and the Racing Post looked like this...

Classic Speed 10/3
Crafter 4.17/1
Snooze Lane 4.67/1
Graffiti 6.83/1
Coolree 7.33/1
Malacanne 10.33/1
Zumaaty 11/1
Light Up Our Stars 16.67/1
The Pug 22.33/1

...and if that's anywhere near accurate, I'd be interested in Graffiti as a winner (E/W if he gets close to 8's) and a cheeky E/W punt on The Pug (especially as SkyBet are paying four places), but I'll need to check the prices later before doing anything, of course!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/04/24

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Hope you all had a great Easter and after the break Insights now return with a look at Wednesday's racing where the free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 5.00 Catterick
  • 5.25 Kempton

...whilst the TS report has the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

I tend to leave the Flat alone in the first few weeks of the season, so the Catterick race is a no-no for me, as is the 'free' Kempton race : Class 5 maidens don't do much for me, but from TS, Richard Hughes' Zero Carbon runs in a decent-looking contest for the 7.00 Kempton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Kiwano won last time out, Revolutionise was a runner-up and Hodler was third in a big field, but the other half dozen all failed to place. Toimy Son is 0 from 5 in the Uk, but did win a Listed race at Longchamp eight starts and twenty-three months ago. Hickory and Hodler are both winless in seven with all their rivals winning at least once in their last six.

Hodler's chances of breaking that losing run might not be helped by stepping up a class as does bottom weight King Cabo, but better news for Hickory, who drops down one level, as do Caragio and Kiwano, who makes a debut for George Baker today.

Thre of the field (Follow Your Heart, the fast-finisher Revolutionise and King Cabo) have been seen in the last 18-27 days and Kiwano's LTO win was 47 days ago, but the remainder of the field have been off the track for 135 days or more, with Toimy Son away the longest at nearly nine months, during which time he was gelded.

Kiwano and Hodler are the only two yet to win over this course and distance, but both have scored at the trip and in fairness, Hodler's run here in March 2022 is the only time either have been here and their lack of course wins is shown on Instant Expert, of course...

...where several runners look like they'll be at ease with these conditions, but Follow Your Heart has struggled to win on the going, here at Kempton and over the trip, whilst Revolutionise has even worse figures at class and trip and Hickory is still 9lbs higher than his last win, despite losing each of his last seven starts.

Although Follow Your Heart has plenty of defeats above, he's actually pretty consistent at making the frame, according to the place stats...

...where he looks very well placed along with Kiwano, Zero Carbon and King Cabo amongst others. Bottom weight King Cabo has been drawn lowest of all here with Revolutionise out in stall nine and it would appear that a high draw isn't preferable...

...with the PRB3 scores dropping off from stall 4 and upwards, although stall 5 still has a rating of o.50...

The pace stats from those races seem quite heavily stacked towards those willing to set the tempo...

...with hold-up horses tending to struggle, which could make life difficult for the likes of Toimy Son, Follow Your Heart and Hodler, based on their most recent efforts...

...and with the pace/draw heat map from those races above looking like this with our runners overlaid...

...the likes of Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo become of interest.

Summary

Most of these have a relatively recent win, but none are in great form, although Kiwano did win last time out and he along with Follow Your Heart, Zero Carbon and King Cabo were the ones who looked best suited to make the frame from Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map also highlighted Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo, so I think this might well point to Kiwano as my 'most likely' here with honourable mentions to both Zero Carbon and King Cabo.

The 5.30pm market had Zero Carbon at 11/2, Kiwano at 8/1 and King Cabo at 16/1, so there's a distinct possibility that I've misread the data, but I'd be looking as small E/W plays on Kiwano and King Cabo here.

 

Racing Insights, Good Friday 29/03/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Good Friday...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Chelmsford
  • 1.53 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield

There's a cracking-looking card  (on paper, anyway) up in the North East and of the three Class 2 contests above, I've decided to look at Sibyl Charm and the 3.00 Newcastle based on field size and race distance. It's a 9-runner, A/W handicap for 4yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 7f on standard tapeta and here's how they'll line up...

Hodd's Girl and Smiling Sunflower look like they might be vulnerable here, but I think the remaining seven all stand a chance of being involved in the shake-up. Top weight Nine Tenths won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings, whilst Cloud Cover has three golds and a silver from five runs and now wears a hood for the first time. Shades of Summer has won her last three, Just Spark is three from four and feature horse Sibyl Charm comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 4 runner-up places from her last seven. The only runner without a recent win is Aramis Grey, but even she has made the frame in each of her last five efforts.

Nine Tenths is already in good nick, but should benefit from a drop in class today having won a Listed race at Wolverhampton quite cosily three weeks ago, but it might be more of a struggle for Just A Spark and Sibyl Charm who are both up two classes, whilst bottom weight Smiling Sunflower is asked to step up three levels, which could be tough, especially at 5lbs outside the handicap.

Of the nine runners, Just A Spark is the only one yet to win over today's trip, as today will be her first effort. Nine Tenths has already won here at Newcastle, scoring over 6f back in November, whilst Shades of Summer and Sibyl Charm have both won over course and distance, the latter doing so twice from three attempts and her course form is reflected in Instant Expert...

...as is Smiling Sunflower's generally poor A/W record, whilst Aramis Grey looks out of her depth at Class 2 from a win perspective, but she does seem to have the knack of finishing in the frame...

Smiling Sunflower is definitely out of contention for me here from what I've already seen and the takeaways from Instant Expert were Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, whilst Aramis Grey's 90% place strike rate at this class is impressive after so many runs. She'd be an unlikely winner at this point, but she's firmly in my mind as an E/W possible on the basis of the above data.

Whilst Nine Tenths led the way above, she's just on the cusp of being well drawn as those drawn higher over 7f here at Newcastle have fared better. It's strange to have a pronounced bias over a straight run on an artifiical surface, but surely the stats can't lie...

...and I think the cut-off comes around stall 5 (Nine Tenths is in number 4!)...

...although I suspect that with most straight line sprints that the pace angle will reveal more about a horse's chances and those 150+ races above have really suited horses keen to get on with things. Leaders win more than their fair share of races, but are often susceptible to being picked off late on by the prominent chasers...

...which unfortunately leads me to a bit of a quandary, as over a 4-race period we don't seem to have any genuine front runners...

..but if we stick to the field's two most recent outings (under the logic that if they're all in pretty decent nick they'll run more like their last two than 3 or 4 races ago), a slightly clearer patter emerges...

...where it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Sibyl Charm will end up setting the pace, but will be vulnerable to the likes of Shades of Summer and Nine Tenths and even Cloud Cover.

Also, when there's the distinct possibility of a falsely-run race, the better horses tend to fare best and this again points to Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, who were the Instant Expert standouts for me.

Summary

No surprises here, but the two I'd take against the field are Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer and as such, it's equally unsurprising that they head the field at 5/2 and 4/1 respectively, but this does open up the prospect of an E/W bet, with the rest of field trading (as of 3pm Thursday) at 7/1 or bigger.

As E/W possibles, I am interested in both Cloud Cover and Aramis Grey and I think I might just have a preference for the latter at 8/1. She doesn't win often enough, but she's really consistent at this level finishing 222123232 in nine Class 2 contests since November 2022.

Happy Easter, everyone! I'm taking a few days off with the family, so I'll be back on Tuesday.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.55 Wetherby
  • 5.50 Clonmel
  • 7.30 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 8.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Glamorous Express has won three of his last seven and comes here on a hat-trick after wins at both Kempton and Newcastle this month. Westmorian and Digital both had top three finishes last time around and were winners two and three races ago respectively, whilst One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five runs. Conversely High Velocity, Temple Bruer and Em Jay Kay are winless in 7, 8 and 11 races respectively.

Temple Bruer's bid to break his losing run might be helped by dropping down a class and sole mare in the race, Miss Bella Brand is down two levels today. hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express moves the opposite way and steps up two classes, whilst Westmorian, Dandy's Derriere and out-of-form bottom-weight Em Jay Kay are all up one class.

Six of the fiedl have raced in the last three weeks, but Em Jay Kay has been away for two months and Miss Bella Brand for three months. It's 19 weeks since Digital last raced, during which time he has moved from Karl Burke to Ruth Carr and the longest lay off of all is the near five month absence of out-of-form Temple Bruer.

All ten runners have won at least once over today's trip and only three (Temple Bruer, Glamorous Express and Dandy's Derriere are yet to land a race here at Southwell. Admittedly that's off just 1, 0 and 3 previous visits respectively. Of the seven former Southwell winners, only three (Mountain Warrior, Miss Bella Brand and Em Jay Kay) have scored over course and distance at the same time and our two-year Instant Expert form overview looks like this...

...where Mountain Warrior looks the best suited from recent races. We're a bit shy on Class 4 wins across the board (4 from 30), if truth be told with Miss Bella Brand struggling the most at this grade. Overall Em Jay Kay looks the most vulnerable at 2 from 14 on standard going and 1 from 9 at 6f and that's from a career record of just 2 wins from 20, all on the A/W. He's still 2lbs higher than his last win, despite 11 consecutive defeats and I suspect that will become 12 today. He has however made the frame in half of his six course appearances including one win according to the place data from that above graphic...

In almost 60 similar races since the switch to tapeta here at Southwell, horses drawn higher have seemed to have been at a disadvantage, with those drawn beyond stall bearing the brunt as I suppose you'd expect with that left-hand turn...

That, of course doesn't mean that hat-trick seeker Glamorous Express can't win from stall 9, but his race tactics are going to have to be spot on from so wide out and in those 50-odd races above, it has paid to get out quickly...

and the more prominent a horse has raced, the better the chances of winning have been with hold-up horses faring really badly. So, i suppose the last thing you'd want is a highly-drawn hold-up horses, unless he was a really fast finisher who didn't mind a bit of traffic. The pace/draw heat map is pretty clear about what has and hasn't worked in those races above...

The fact that high drawn leaders have been the most successful would appear to flip the draw stats around and what that says to me is that the pace of the race holds greater value than the draw without saying we should ignore the draw of course. So, we now need to look at how this field normally races to make an informed decision about how we think they might run here...

...and it looks like Digital might well set the pace ahead of One More Dream with hat-trick seeking Glamorous Express and Temple Bruer closer to the rear of the field. If we re-arrange that pace chart into draw order, we get this...

Summary

Glamorous Express will be popular after two wins already this month, but he's up two classes, carries a penalty and seems badly suited by the pace/draw stats. Westmorian, Digital and One More Dream also come here in decent form. Digital and One More Dream both scored well on the place aspect of Instant Expert, but it was top-weight Mountain Warrior who was the IE pick of the pack.

The pace/draw stats pointed to Digital, Miss Bella Brand, Dandy's Derriere, One More Dream, Westmorian and Mountain Warrior having the best chances and on the basis of who's ticking the most boxes it's the names of Digital and One More Dream who feature most followed by Mountain Warrior and Westmorian.

I'd expect One More Dream to fare better here than Digital, so he'd be my pick today.

I looked at he market at 4pm, but no prices were available and having looked at a few tissues, I expected the market to look something like...

Westmorian 10/3-7/2
Glamorous Express 4/1-9/2
One More Dream 5/1
Mountain Warrior 17/2
Dandys Derriere 19/2
Digital 19/2
Temple Bruer 12/1
Em Jay Kay 16/1
Miss Bella Brand 17/1
High Velocity 18/1

...and I was going to suggest One More Dream at 5's as my pick with E/W options from Mountain Warrior and Digital with Westmorian being too short.

However, Bet365 went 'live' just before I did and here are their prices as of 4.10pm...

...which are pretty close to the estimates, so I stick with my decision(s).

Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/03/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wincanton
  • 3.18 Wexford
  • 3.40 Hereford
  • 5.o5 Wincanton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year course form...

...with the best on paper of all those races looking like the last where Mount Athos will attempt to retain the race he won last year, the 7.00 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's another small field that looks really competitive and my early thoughts were that all bar possibly Soar Above could have a chance of winning this.

MOUNT ATHOS is three from here over course and distance and won this race last year, but is now rated some 9lbs higher. He was a course and distance winner two starts ago of 4lbs lower than today but was a disappointing 4/5 fav at Wolverhampton last time out off today's mark when only 5th of 8, beaten by 7 lengths. Could very easily bounce back on his return to Kempton.

ROHAAN has also won over course and distance, albeit way back in December 2020 and was only beaten by just over a length last time out at Lingfield. He has been eased a pouind here, which should help a horse deemed good enough to run in last season's Gr 1 Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot.

MOSTABSHIR makes just a second appearance in a handicap some 144 days after his last run when 5th of 9 at Chelmsford on handicap debut, going down by over four lengths. He's down a furlong and down 2lbs in the ratings too, which should make him a little more competitive. He won on his only previous visit to Kempton, landing a Class 4 Novice event over a mile on his debut in November 2022.

MUMS TIPPLE drops in class today and is noted as a fast finisher, but recent form hasn't been great, losing eight on the bounce and was last home of six in a Listed race at Wolverhampton earlier this month. He now seeks an upturn in form, more than a year after his last win. has won a couple over 7f, but his better form has been over 6f.

ARABIAN STORM only raced four times before today, twice each at Newcastle and Newmarket and was only beaten by ¾-length behind Shouldvebeenaring in a Listed race at HQ last time out. He has a win (7f at Newcastle) and two places from those four starts and now drops in class for his handicap debut off what might be a lenient mark of 95, seeing as Shouldvebeenaring was rated 113 earlier this month. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't raced for near enough eleven months and might possibly need the run.

SOAR ABOVE has won three times over course and distance, but unlike Mount Athos, it has taken him 22 attempts to attain that feat and he was was runner-up here over track/trip last time out, but that was at Class 4 off a mark of 82 with a 7lb claimer on board. The claimer has gone, he runs off 82 again and is up two classes. Add in the fact that he is on a run of sixteen defeats and you can see why I think he might struggle.

That recent poor run of form is starkly highlighted by Instant Expert, which suggests the top three in the weights (and the three drawn lowest) should be the ones to focus on...

...although Soar Above has had the knack of running well enough to make the frame without winning...

...but his Class 2 record remains poor with most of his placed efforts coming at Class 4. Instant Expert highlighted the three drawn lowest and the draw stats for similar past races would appear to favour those in stalls 1-4...

...which would also be good news for Arabian Storm on his comeback run. His fitness is sure to be tested here as he'll face opposition for an early lead from last year's winner Mount Athos who does like to make all where possible, whilst Rohaan looks the polar opposite...

...and this hold-up approach could well be Rohaan's undoing if we then look at how those 90 previous Kempton races have panned out...

Summary

None of the field won last time out, but Mount Athos has been a standing dish over course and distance. He was the pick of Instant Expert along with Rohaan and Mostabshir and this trio look to have the best of the draw along with Arabian Storm.

Mount Athos and Arabian Storm have the best pace profiles here with Mostabshir there or thereabouts too, but it's last year's winner, Mount Athos who ticks most boxes today and would be my pick. Rohaan might get left behind if there's plenty of early pace, but both Mostabshir and Arabian Storm are coming off lengthy breaks. I think the challenge to Mount Athos comes from this trio and if pushed to suggest one, I'd hope that the 144 day absence isn't enough to upset Mostabshir.

All of which appears to be backed up by the 4.30pm call from Hills...

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/03/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

Unfortunately, my fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) have generated no qualifiers, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 7.30 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Southwell

...the best of which (on paper, at least) looks like being the 4.20 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground over what will be a shade beyond 2m1f after rail movements...

My initial thoughts were that this might be quite competitive despite the small field with only top-weights Wolf Prince and Manor Park looking like they might struggle, but let's take a closer look at the whole field...

WOLF PRINCE made the frame in three consecutive races in the summer of 2022, but has disappointed in two runs this season after taking nearly 18 months off. Now without a win in 14 races since mid-October 2021, it's hard to see him landing this one, although he has won at both 2m and 2m2f.

MANOR PARK drops a class here as he returns from eight months off the track, during which time he has moved yards. he did win two starts ago at this class/trip at Newton Abbot back in July 2023, but flopped next/last time out a fortnight later at Market Rasen and a watching brief is advised here, even if he is 4 from 12 at 2m1f.

CELTIC ART has won over 2m in the past and is 3 from 5 on good to soft ground, so won't want any more rain to fall here. He was a winner in both January & February last year and again in November, but with three indifferent runs in between. Since then, he has run poorly on a couple of occasions, but looked like coming back into a bit of form a 4-length third of none over this course and distance five weeks ago.

AMELIA'S DANCE is a bit of an enigma, she loves it here with three of her four career wins coming over course and distance, but she's only 4 from 34 overall and has no win since scoring over track and trip in December 2022. She has been beaten eleven times since then, but has been the runner-up in each of her last three outings and in five of her last six, so she wouldn't be winning out of turn. Sadly her run of near misses means she's still 10lbs higher than her last winning mark and she's up a class today.

TOONAGH WARRIOR is much less experienced (just 11 starts) than the four runners above (who have raced 30+ times each), but has gone well since starting hurdling last September, finishing 321264 in six starts. The 6th place can be excused, as he'd stepped from 1m7½f to 2m4f, but his other four defeats at 1m7½f-2m were by an average of less than five lengths and he's eased 2lbs here today, but he is up one class.

HARA KIRI comes here on a hat-trick but will have to contend with stepping up two classes. He has won his last couple by narrow margins and his last run was littered with errors and he'll probably not get away with them at this level. That said, going and trip are both fine for him and he has only failed to make the frame twice in nine starts. He's also up 3lbs here, so will definitely need to work a bit harder today.

And Instant Expert confirms that Amelia's Dance has found wins hard to come by...

...on good to soft (1 from 9) and at Class 3 (0 from 9), but that she loves it here (3/8 and 3/6 over C&D), whilst Manor Park has also struggled at the going, class, and course. The trip shouldn't be an issue for most of these, but despite a smattering of 'green', there's no absolute standout on the win stats. That said, the field only has a combined strike rate of 13.8% (24 from 174), so we shouldn't have expected much more. Hopefully, we'll glean a little bit extra from the place stats...

...where Celtic Art is probably the pick of the pack, but Amelia's Dance looks more of a contender with some solid numbers from a decent sample size of races. Manor Park still looks out of his depth here and if he runs like he normally does, then he's going to be playing catchup later in the race too...

...which might leave him adrift as there might well be plenty of early pace. Celtic Art likes to get on with things, as does Wolf Prince, whilst Amelia's Dance was only headed deep into the final furlong last time out and it's those runners on the front end who tend to fare best in these contests...

Summary

Having looked at the race again, it's every bit as competitive as I thought it might be and you could easily make a case for four of them and the 5pm market seems to reflect this...

I'm not seeing a great deal of value in that price about Hara Kiri if truth be told, as he'll need considerable improvement if he's to complete the hat-trick. I don't think I'll even place a bet in this one (which is perfectly fine/acceptable, of course), but the one I probably would have gone with would be Celtic Art. He's no standout here, but ticks a few boxes.

Amelia's Dance will give her usual gutsy Taunton showing, but she's out of form and too high in the weights, so Toonagh Warrior might be the 'surprise package' here. Could be worth watching with a cup of tea, though, even if I've no cash down.

Racing Insights, Monday 25/03/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.20 Exeter
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 6.00 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 3.35 Huntingdon, a Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will effectively be 2m 4.3f after a 97 yard rail adjustment. The track is right-handed, the going is expected to good to soft and here's the card...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Calvic at least finish third, but Stumps or Slips, Hector Jaguen and Cloudy Wednesday all failed to get round.

Top-weight Icaque de L'isle and Family Business both drop down a class here and Calvic is the only runner not wearing any headgear or equipment.

All bar Stumps or Slips have raced in the last 8 weeks, but a 209-day absence for 'Stumps' could be an issue here. although he, like Family Business, does at least have some winning form at this kind of trip, whilst Master Malcolm and Cloudy Wednesday are both former course and distance winners...

Instant Expert looks like a sea of red...

...but Stumps or Slips and Master Malcolm do manage to emerge with some credit, especially the latter off a mark only 2lbs higher than his last win, whilst the place stats from those races...

...firmly bring the likes of Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic into the mix along with Master Malcolm. Of these four, our pace tab suggests that Master Malcolm and Icaque de l'isle are likely to be up with the pace early doors...

...with Stumps or Slips the back marker. We can then use this info when we check our Pace Analyser, which tells us that...

...those horses that race prominently have the best chance of making the frame, but they can't always catch the leaders, who win more often than any other running style.

Summary

Leaders win most often in this type of contest and Master Malcolm looks like being the front runner. He was also the standout in a fairly mediocre-looking Instant Expert and whilst not in the best form of late, I think he has a good chance of at least a place ands at 7/1, I'd be happy to take him as an E/W option here.

I suspect that Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic will also go well, but none are going to be longer to take a punt in my opinion.

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/03/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of runners for me to check out...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 2.30 Bangor
  • 3.50 Newbury
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

...but I think I'm going to bypass all of them and look at the 1.30 Bangor, an interesting-looking (on paper at least!), 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

As is often the case with eight-runner fields, I find myself mentally splitting the field in half and on this occasion, I can't help but feel like I should be focusing upon (alphabetically) Cheddleton, Jungle Jack, Pickanumber and Uncle Bert at the expense of the other four runners, but what happens next might change my mind!

Of those four I seem to favour, all bar Jungle Jack (who was a runner-up by a neck) managed to win last time out and Pickanumber has won each of his last two. Elsewhere Llandinabo Lad is the only one without a win in seven, having lost fifteen on the bounce since landing a 1m7½f Listed Novice Hurdle at Haydock way back in November 2020!

Only Willaston and Banjaxed ran at this grade last time with the rest of the field all up in class here. Five are up from Class 3, but bottom weight and hat-trick seeker Pickanumber is up two levels for what will be just his second run in a handicap.

My main protagonists have all raced in the last 18-36 days, as has West To The Bridge, but Banjaxed, Llandinabo Lad and Willaston have yet to race in 2024 and now reappear after breaks of 112, 119 and 147 days respectively and all three could well be excused for needing the run.

The bottom pair in the weights, Llandinabo Lad and Pickanumber are the only ones yet to win at a similar trip to this one, although the former has won at this track, landing a 2m1f Novice Hurdle here in October 2020. Cheddleton and West To The Bridge have both won 2m½f hurdle contests here, but only top weight Jungle Jack is credited with a past course and distance success, which he achieved by winning this race last year off just 4lbs lower than today's mark.

The field's relevant form under similar conditions looks like this...

...with Jungle Jack the clear standout. The majority of the field are relatively inexperienced under these conditions, but West to the Bridge has gone well on soft ground, as has Uncle Bert, but West's record at this grade leaves something to be desired at just one win from twelve attempts and the place stats say that he only made the frame in 3 of the 11 defeats...

Similar past contests here at Bangor have certainly been kind to those runners happy to get on with it from an early point in the race...

...as those waited with have struggled to land much of a blow here from both a win and a place perspective, which based on this field's most recent efforts would give Llandinabo Lad his best chance of breaking that long losing run...

and it's also good news for Pickanumber who has pretty much made all to win his last two. Jungle Jack led for vritually all of his last race before losing in the final strides and although Cheddleton was held back last time out, he's normally right up with the pace. His last win/run was in a four-runner contest at Newcastle that had very little pace anyway.

Summary

I started by saying that I felt like I should be focusing upon (alphabetically) Cheddleton, Jungle Jack, Pickanumber and Uncle Bert at the expense of the other four runners and whilst this quartet haven't fully convinced me just yet, none of the others have made me think they might force their way in.

Of my four, all are up in class (two classes for Pickanumber), only Jungle Jack has won over course and distance and he was the pick on Instant Expert. He also scored well on the pace, so I think at that these odds available at 4.45pm Friday...

It would be Jungle Jack at 7/2 with an 11/1 E/W option on Cheddleton.

Racing Insights, Friday 22/03/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 3.12 Lingfield
  • 3.33 Newbury
  • 7.30 Dundalk

And I think I'll take a look at One More Dream in the 6.45 Newcastle, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

This looks like a pretty open contest with several holding claims. Featured runner One More Dream has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four, Lahab has a win and three places from four, Abruzzo Mia and Mumayaz both won last time out, whilst Danielsflyer has won each of his last three. Feel The Need and Streak Lightning are, however, winless in twelve and ten races respectively.

Streak Lightning's hope of breaking that long losing run don't appear to be helped by him stepping up a class here, as are One More Dream, Abruzzo Mia and bottom-weight Rory, whilst Mumayaz is up two grades today. All bar Feel The Need have had a run in the last three weeks, but he now returns from almost six months off, during which time he has switched yards and now makes a debut for Michael Herrington.

All nine runners have already won over this trip with only Lahab, Feel The Need, Mumayaz and Rory yet to score over course and distance. The latter pair, Mumayaz (over 6f) and Rory (over 5f & 6f) have, however, already won on this track and Instant Expert will document the field's form over the last two year's under similar conditions...

Fast0finisher Starshiba has been decent across the board, if unspectacular, whilst One More Dream has a great record at track/trip. Abruzzo Mia's numbers are creditable and Danielsflyer is probably the standout here. Streak Lightning has found it hard to win on going/class and distance and the going certainly hasn't favoured Mumayaz or Rory with the latter also struggling to win over 7f, although they have managed to make the frame in several of their defeats, according to the place data for those very races...

...which suggests that all of these have done well enough to make the frame quite often, whilst Feel The Need runs on the A/W for the first time. His introduction to this sphere of racing will come from a fairly high (7 of 9) draw, but our draw analyser suggests that this might be helpful from both a win and place perspective...

Personally, I remain unconvinced about draw bias on straight tracks, but that above is what the data tells us. I'm more inclined to take notice of any perceived pace bias than the draw stats if truth be told and for those 150+ races above, our Pace Analyser says...

...that leaders win more than their fair share of races here, but that those just following closely behind do have a tendency to pick them off and 'steal' the win. Any further back into mid-field can be a difficult place to win from, as those runners have only won 43.8% of the races despite having 54.9% of the runners and if we look at the field's last few outings...

This could be good news for Lahab, Abruzzo Mia, Starshiba and One More Dream and if we look at the pace/draw heat map...

...Abruzzo Mia would be the one to take from that piece of data.

Summary

An open-looking contest and when I wrote the piece just ater 3pm on Thursday I had no odds to work with, but I was more interested in (alphabetically) Abruzzo Mia (Form/Instant Expert/Pace & Draw), Danielsflyer (on form/IE), Lahab (form/pace), One More Dream (Form/H4C/IE) and Starshiba (IE/pace).

I've only ruled four out at this stage, but will return later with a decision, once I've seen the market and decided which (if any) represent enough value for me to want to suggest putting money down

OK, it's now 6.30pm and here's the market...

..and based on the above, I think I'm just going to play a small E/W bet on Starshiba. If pushed for a winner, my tentative selection would be Abruzzo Mia ahead of One More Dream.

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.15 Chepstow
  • 3.58 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think we'll have a look at the Ludlow Gold Cup, aka the 5.20 Ludlow, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Open Hunters Chase, taking in 16 fences over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground...

...where I suspect that both Espoir de Guye and Before Midnight will go off at rather short odds, but that leaves the door open for a possible E/W punt, of course.

Espoir de Guye actually won last time out, as did Shang Tang, but none of the other six even made the frame with half of the field (Captain Tommy, Dalahast, Hazard Collonges and Missed Tee) all being pulled up. Captain Tommy did win two starts ago, but most of these are struggling for form right now.

Espoie de Guye, Royal Act and Missed Tee are all up a class here, but Shang Tang drops down a level whilst both Before Midnight and Dalahast drop down two classes, with only joint top weight Captain Tommy and Hazard Collonges having raced at class 4 last time around. Hazard Collonges has struggled to complete races of late and now wears cheekpieces for the first time as he also seeks to defy a near 16-week layoff.

Royal Act and Before Midnight have been rested for 58 & 80 days respectively, but the other five have all had a run in the last month or so. It's not a handicap contest, of course, which means that Before Midnight is best off at the weights carrying just 11-12 despite a rating of 129, putting him7lbs better off than next best Espoir de Guye, but Espoir is one of just three runners here (along with Shang Tang and Missed Tee) to have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst only Captain Tommy (via a 3m Hunter Chase last month) has tasted success at this track. That said, only Royal Act, Shang Tang and Missed Tee have tackled fences here before according to Instant Expert...

Instant Expert is often good at helping us pick a winner or narrow down the field and it's more of a narrowing job today with all that red above! Most of these are very inexperienced under these conditions so to be 0 from 2 or 3 is no great disaster just yet, but I am more concerned about Captain Tommy, Royal Act and Before Midnight on soft ground, Royal Act at this grade and trip, whilst Before Midnight hasn't won at this trip either in six attempts, although he has made the frame in half of them...

...and if it's an E/W challenger we're looking for, then Captain Tommy must now have jumped the queue somewhat. Royal Act still looks poor and I certainly won't be backing him and I do still have reservations about Before Midnight on this soft ground. That said, he is best off at the weights and does drop two classes here and our Pace Analyser says he'll be right in the mix if he's prepared to hit the front end early doors...

Unfortunately for him, he's not that type at all and tends to race in mid-division or at least has done in his more recent efforts...

...with the pace chart suggesting that Royal Act will attempt to set the tempo of the contest with the likes of Captain Tommy and Espoir de Guye in fairly close attendance. Royal Act has set the pace in each of his last four outings and they have seen him pulled up 4 out at Ffos Las and then beaten three times by 53, 83 and 69 lengths respectively, so I'm not too concerned about him 'nicking it' from the front!

Summary

The early (only Bet365 had odds at 5.10pm Wednesday) indications are that the bookies expect a tight two-horse race and that Royal Act is indeed, a no-hoper here...

...but I'm not convinced that Before Midnight gets near to Espoir de Guye today. I'm certainly not backing Espoir here, but he's far more likely to win than any of the others and is my 'pick'. From the evidence above, you won't be too surprised to read that Captain Tommy would be my E/W horse in this one and he could even challenge for the runner-up spot of things fall his way.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/03/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 3.30 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated any runners at all for me to consider and I'm not massively keen on any of the 'free' races for different reasons, so I'm going to look at one of the day's joint highest-rated races, the 3.50 Haydock, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase on soft/heavy ground. The trip is 3m 160yds after rail movements and these are the runners facing 22 fences today...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be two races in one with (racecard order) Jubilee Express, Robyndzone, O'Connell and Ali Star Bert battling it out for positions 1-4 and the remainder all trying to be next best.

Bottom weight Ali Star Bert is the only LTO winner in the field and comes here seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five starts, having been beaten by a nose three starts ago. He's clearly the 'form' horse here, but Robyndzone has two wins (but also two incomplete runs) from his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from six starts. Atakan is also two (plus a place) from four, whilst only Gold Emery has failed to win any of his last seven, having won just once (on debut) in his eight career starts and he's 0/6 over fences.

Only Jubilee Express and Robyndzone raced at this grade last time out with the former a one length runner-up. Top-weight Conkwell legend drops down after some disappointing Class 2 efforts, whilst the other five runners are all up from Class 4, which shouldn't help Atakan who was 4th LTO or Gold Emery/Hold The Note who were both pulled up and Atakan now wears a tongue-tie for the first time.

All eight have raced in the last 2-5 weeks or so, so there's none quickly turned back out nor should any be rusty enough to 'need the run', but they are a bit shy on course/distance form, although Robyndzone won here on heavy ground over course and distance on his penultimate run and Atakan did win over 3m4½f on soft ground at Plumpton two starts ago, a victory that skews the Instant Expert stats in his favour somewhat...

Initial concerns here are the lack of wins for Conkwell Legend/Gold Emery (going) and Hold The Note (class) and also the temptation to be sucked in by Atakan's sole soft ground/class/distance win at Plumpton. O'Connell is also some 11lbs higher than his last win and he's 4lbs higfher than when finishing as runner-up last time out. I'm aware that there's more to handicapping than a simple punishment for running well, but if he couldn't win any of his last three outings off marks of 110, 111 and 111, is he likely to now win off 115?

There's not much else to glean from the above and I'm hoping for a bit more help from the place data...

This marks Conkwell Legend's card and re-affirms Hold The Note's lack of form at Class 3 and I've probably seen enough to discount them at this stage, unless there's a huge pace bias to be had in their favour.

Pace is an interesting concept and often a misleading term, especially in NH racing. Pace is more an assessment of race tempo, getting your horse in the right filed position and choosing the right tactics, rather than pace meaning to blast out quickly. That said, staying chases on difficult ground here at Haydock have suited those racing further forward who have (a) kept themselves out of trouble and (b) been able to dictate the tempo of the race from the front. Those racing in the front half of the field have won 70% of the races shown below from just 44.7% of the runners...

...with those leading the way faring best of all. 50 of 333 (15%) runners have been deemed to have led, but they've managed to win 13 (32.5%) of the 40 races, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could well tip the scales in Robyndzone's favour.

Summary

Robyndzone heads the pace chart and was one of my initial quartet of 'possibles', but his Instant Expert scores aren't great and he'd probably want quicker ground and a shorter trip, whilst Jubilee Express looks better suited by the conditions and won't be far off the pace. Ali Star Bert is likely to race in mid-division, which isn't ideal, but if he doesn't let the leaders get too far ahead, he's in good enough form to play catch-up especially as he receives 2-20lbs from his rivals. O'Connell is another who'll have to work from mid-field and these conditions are probably as good as he's going to get at this grade (he'd be better down in class), but he's carrying too much weight in my opinion (aren't we all?).

My first thoughts were that we've a race of two halves with these four the main protagonists, but whilst I stick by that theory, I think that this front four might also be a contest of two halves, as I see Jubilee Express to just be slightly better than Ali Star Bert, whilst O'Connell and Robyndzone battle it out to make the frame. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, Hills (only book open) had the field priced as follows...

...which isn't too far from how I have it. Of the 'other' four, all of whom are 8/1 or longer, Atakan is probably the one most likely to upset the applecart as an E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/03/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Lough Leane would be of most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.45 Wetherby
  • 3.15 Wetherby
  • 3.45 Wetherby

Lough Leane is definitely worth a look at, but having won his last three, I'd guess he's going to be fairly short in the market, so I'll revert to the 'free' races, all of which have at least one runner on The Shortlist too and the best of the three races to analyse is likely to be the last of them, as Shortlist 11pts Shighness takes on five rivals in the 3.45 Wetherby, a Class 3, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 3m 87yds on soft ground...

TOP OF THE BILL had a rare off-day when well beaten over 3m½f at Exeter last time out, having won his previous two efforts, both over the same course and distance. He had been raised 8lbs for the race and the assessor has relented slightly by dropping him back 2lbs here. If that run was a one-off, he'll be right in the mix here.

COLLECTORS ITEM takes a drop in class here in a bid to arrest a run of seven defeats, three over hurdles and four over fences. He hasn't managed to make the frame over fences yet and was well beaten last time out. He was a decent hurdler, so maybe it's just taking him a while to adjust, but others make more appeal to me here.

DONNY BOY won his sole bumper, won on hurdles debut and was a runner-up in successive chases in October/December last year. Ran well enough at Doncaster last time out, but was only 4th of 7, beaten by over 8 lengths and now has a 52-day layoff to contend with.

LORD OF KERAK is the only LTO winner in the field, but that was a walkover at Leicester 11 days ago, where he just had to jump the fences and trot round. Prior to that, he was a runner-up in two of his last three races and is now on his lowest chasing mark. He's not an obvious winner, but has made the frame in half of his races.

CERENDIPITY had no joy in a pair of bumpers, but won at 2m3½f over hurdles 14 months ago. His recent chase form was good (313) last winter before being pulled up at Haydock and then falling at Doncaster prior to only finishing third of five last time out. He's genuine enough, but this is a major step up in trip that will test his unproven stamina.

SHIGHNESS wears cheekpieces for the first time here, as she edged right when beaten by 11 lengths at Carlisle a month ago. She had been running well prior to that race, finishing as a 2-length runner-up over this course and distance two months ago and then winning a 4-runner 3m1½f contest at Catterick at the start of February. has also ran well (14143) over this type of trip over hurdles, so the distance won't be an issue if she can run/jump a bit straighter here.

Instant Expert says that Donny Boy hasn't raced on soft ground in the last two years, (although he has ran badly in two heavy ground efforts), but that all of his rivals have won at least once...

Donny Boy certainly looks the weakest across the board here, whilst wins have also been hard to come across for Lord of Kerak over this trip and Cerendipity at this grade, but Lord of Kerak does look to be on a workable mark of 120 and his place stats look like keeping him in contention for a place...

...whereas Donny Boy & Cerendipity still look at sea in this grade. This pair are likely to take very different approaches to this race if their recent histories are anything to go by...

...as Cerendipity looks like he might be the one to challenge confirmed front-runner Top Of The Bill for the early lead, whilst Donny Boy looks like he'll have to come from the back of the pack if he wants to win here, which might be easier said than done, according to our Pace Analyser...

Summary

Donny Boy is the current (Monday 3.55pm) 11/4 favourite with Bet365 (5/2 with Hills), but unless I'm missing something that doesn't seem like great value about a horse placed just once in five starts over fences, whose 'best' work has been at Class 4 and doesn't seem suited by the pace profile. Instead, I'd prefer to be with Top of the Bill at 9/2 after winning two of his last three, he scores well on Instant Expert and will be up with the early pace, if not setting it.

The Shortlist horse Shighness should obviously relish the conditions here and give his usual running but at a best price of 4/1 would be too short for an E/W bet, even if he will be up with the pace. If I was to go for a longer-priced horse to make the frame, I'd be tempted by the 7/1 (or hopefully bigger later) offered about Lord of Kerak. He doesn't win many, but makes the frame in half of his races, has been in decent enough recent form and is on a dangerously low mark.

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