Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/04/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

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  • 3.10 Naas
  • 3.55 Warwick
  • 4.15 Naas
  • 4.38 Clonmel
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...from which, I've selected the 8.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this looks pretty open for a lowly Class 6 contest, but that the winner might well come from the bottom end of the card, although only 6lbs separates the first eight of the nine runners, of whom Classic Speed and Crafter both won last time out.

Malacanne and Snooze Lane both won two starts ago and the latter made the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst top-weight Coolree was a runner-up on his last start and now wears blinkers for the first time in a bid to end a run of seven defeats. Light Up Our Stars and Zumaaty are also on long losing runs, having lost 12 and 10 on the bounce respectively. Both of these should benefit from a drop in class and three others (top-weight Coolree, The Pug & Graffiti) also all drop down from Class 5 here, whilst Graffiti will now carry a 7lb claimer effectively taking him back to his last winning mark (7 off 65 today vs 3 off 61 over course and distance in November).

All nine runners have been seen inside the last 7-33 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue for any of them and more than half (5) of the field have already scored over course and distance, but Coolree, The Pug and Classic Speed have yet to win over either track or trip, whilst Light Up Our Stars has won here over 7f and 1m½f, albeit not since October. and these course/distance wins (or lack of) lead us nicely into our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...which says that over the last couple of years, most of this field have performed reasonably well under today's conditions, although Coolree is 0 from 7 on the A/W. Light Up Our Stars is 3 from 21 here at Wolverhampton, but has won just 1 of 13 here over the last two years and has been beaten in all six efforts at similar trips. The Pug is also light on wins at track/trip, but has three wins in this grade. That said, none of them are in the red at Class 6, as Coolree drops to this level for the first time and we've no red at all from the bottom four in the weights.

From a place perspective, those races above highlight the consistency of Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug...

Of those four regular placers, Zumaaty, Crafter and Graffiti are drawn lowest of all nine runners here, but our draw analyser suggests that horses coming from the centre of the stalls might have more going for them in terms of assistance from the draw...

And if we look at how those 150+ races have been won, we're told that whilst there's not a huge pace bias, horses running just off the leaders or in mid-division have fared best...

...suggesting that leaders make the frame quite often, but appear to get overhauled mate on (only 30% of placers were winners), whilst prominent runners make the frame more often and win more often overall. Yet, it's the mid-division runners who convert more places (38.8%) into wins. The inference about hold-up horses is that they end up with too much work to do, which based on recent outings...

...might not great news for Crafter, nor Classic Speed, yet the collective pace/draw heat map from those previous Wolverhampton races would suggest that Classic Speed could do very well here along with The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars, who appear to be best suited...

Summary

The ones who caught the eye on form were Classic Speed and Crafter who both won last time out, along with Snooze Lane ( a win and a place from his last two) and Graffiti (placed twice in his last three), whilst it was Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug who were highlighted by Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map seems to favour Classic Speed, The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars and it is from these three categories that I'm going to choose.

Classic Speed, Crafter and The Pug are all mentioned twice there, but Graffiti is the one that would appear to tick all three boxes.

I'd no odds available at 4.15pm on Wednesday, but a tissue made up from the average odds predicted by Oddschecker, Timeform and the Racing Post looked like this...

Classic Speed 10/3
Crafter 4.17/1
Snooze Lane 4.67/1
Graffiti 6.83/1
Coolree 7.33/1
Malacanne 10.33/1
Zumaaty 11/1
Light Up Our Stars 16.67/1
The Pug 22.33/1

...and if that's anywhere near accurate, I'd be interested in Graffiti as a winner (E/W if he gets close to 8's) and a cheeky E/W punt on The Pug (especially as SkyBet are paying four places), but I'll need to check the prices later before doing anything, of course!

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