Racing Insights, Monday 18/03/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.40 Curragh
  • 4.18 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Newcastle

Monday's racing is generally pretty poor and the Monday following the Cheltenham Festival is usually even worse and such is the case again this year, I'm afraid. We've a card or rider restricted races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and 13 NH races at Fontwell and Southwell, the highest-rated of which are half a dozen at Class 4. Of those six races, the only one with more than six runners is a 10-runner maiden where the field only have 34 previous races between them.

So, I'll be honest with you here, I probably won't be having a bet on any of Monday's racing, but for the sake of the column, I'm going to look at the 4.30 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on soft ground over what is essentially 2m 5.25f after a rail movement of 188 yards...

My initial thoughts are that the bottom two on the card, Quian & Over Milk Wood would be up against it here, but that you could probably make a case for any of the other four...

POZO EMERY has finished in the first three home in all of his five starts over hurdles, but has only won once (2m3½f) and comes here on the back of a 16 length defeat as a runner-up at Sandown last time out. Up in trip today and tries the tongue tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time.

FLYING FORTUNE makes a handicap debut in his fourth start over hurdles having finished 3411 in four bumpers in the first half of 2023. Her best run over hurdles was his second effort when a 3 length runner-up at Newton Abbot in October, but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ffos Las last time out. That was over four months ago, so she's a layoff to contend with too.

HOSTILE HOTELIER is up in class here and wears a tongue tie for the first time and comes here off the back of a pair of runner-up finishes, albeit in defeats of 7.5 lengths over hurdles and by 12 lengths over fences last time out. He did win on his handicap hurdle debut last November and now races at just 4lbs higher than that win.

JUBILEE GOLD has only raced five times so far, but has a win and two places from the three races he has completed and was only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield on soft ground last time out. The winner of that race won again next time out and the third placed horse has finished second and first in his two run since. This horse is up in class here, though.

QUIAN won two starts ago at Taunton, but that run was the exception to how he normally fares, having lost his previous six races by an average of 54 lengths per race and reverted back to losing ways last time out, when only fifth of six at Huntingdon. has failed to see 2m out regularly, so 2m5f-plus poses more problems here.

OVER MILK WOOD has yet to make the frame in seven starts and has been beaten by 92, 24, 60, 7, 31, 59 and 74 lengths in those races. In his defence, he does drop in class here for his second handicap run and has at least tackled this trip before, but I'm struggling for other positives if truth be told.

We're not going to get much from the win stats on Instant Expert, so I'm showing you the place data too...

...which would suggest we're better off focusing on Pozo Emery, Flying Fortune and Jubilee Gold in a type of contest where leaders and hold-up horses haven't fared as well as those positioned somewhere between the two, which based on the field's last few runs...

...isn't the best news for Jubilee Gold from my trio of Instant Expert standouts.

Summary

A poor race on an awful day of racing, where I won't be having a bet, but if I was having one in this race, my tentative pick would be Pozo Emery at 7/1 E/W. Jubilee Gold and Flying Fortune should also be in the mix, but it's not a race to spend too much time on.

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/03/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 2.25 Uttoxeter
  • 3.55 Kempton
  • 4.15 Thurles
  • 4.45 Uttoxeter
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

We've a couple of TJC runners entered into the 2.25 Uttoxeter from our 'free' list, but 18-runner contests aren't my thing, but all isn't lost as the in-form Skeltons run Hitching Jacking in the 3.55 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three mile trip on good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point (who drops a class here), Egbert (who'll wear first-time blinkers) and Statuario (if he's race-ready after an 18-month break). The latter comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Egbert has won two of his last three.

All bar Strictlyadancer and Cap du Nord have won at least once in their last seven outings (Northern Poet is four from seven since returning from a 624-day absence), but this pair are now winless in seven and eleven races respectively, bit do both drop down two classes here, whilst the top two in the weights, Slipway & Java Point drop down one level.

Hitching Jacking and the returning Statuario are yet to win over this kind of trip, whilst bottom weight Cap du Nord is our only previous course and distance winner. Egbert has also won on this track and that was over 2m5f three starts ago, as identified by Instant Expert...

...where aside from just one losing run on the going, Egbert looks best suited. The going doesn't look like Cap du Nord's preference at 1 win from 9. That said, he has only won 1 of his last 12 and that win came just 2 days shy of two years ago, so if he doesn't win here, he'll be 0/9 on the going next time around over a 2-year period! We've four Class 3 winners, of course and Java Point has fared best at the trip.

The place stats do seem to be negative about Cap du Nord again...

, although he (like most of his rivals) does have a little bit of form at this grade. He's bottom weight here, 9lbs lower than his last and has regressed over the last couple of years. he's not getting any younger/fitter at the age of 11, so he may have to drop further in class if remaining in training, as he's certainly not for me here.

If Statuario picks up where he left off 18 months ago, then he's likely to try to control the tempo of the race from the front...

...whilst Strictlyadancer is a confirmed hold-up horse, a tactic that hasn't really panned out well in similar past contests...

Summary

I started by saying that my initial thoughts were that the winner would come from the trio of LTO winners, Java Point, Egbert and Statuario and whilst I have reservations about all three, none of their five rivals have made enough appeal for me to change my mind, although Northern Poet had gone well at the back end of last season before disappointing on his comeback run at Exeter recently.

Java Point stayed on well to win at Sandown last time out and was better than the 1.5 length margin might suggest. he is up 4lbs for that run, but does take a drop in class and in what might be a tight contest, he'd be my marginal pick ahead of his fellow 11/4 joint favourite Egbert. Egbert starred on Instant Expert, but might not be suited by the pace of the race if he's closer to back than front early on. I've little between these, but Java Point edges it.

Statuario hasn't been seen for 18 months and that's a worry, but he did each of his last two starts, the last by some twenty lengths. He should be up front controlling the tempo and if fit enough to last, he becomes very E/W backable at 10/1. Northern Poet would be the other E/W option here at 12's if he can get over that last effort at Exeter where he struggled from some way out.

Racing Insights, Friday 15/03/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.25 Fakenham
  • 5.00 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton
  • 7.40 Newcastle

Of the seven races above, the one from the Festival is clearly the highest-rated, but I tend to leave big-race analysis to the Geegeez experts elsewhere on the site. The 'free' list does, however, contain a nice-looking contest over in Norfolk, so let's tackle the 4.25 Fakenham aka the Fakenham Silver Cup, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground, that might be a little softer in places...

Only Coup de Coeur managed to win last time out and he's 2 from 4, as is Magical Maggie (she's also 3 from 6). Ip Up is 2 from 5, whilst both Legionar and Whispering Royal are 2 from 7; Jilaijone and Fransham are winless in ten and thirteen respectively.

Jilajione's chances of breaking his cold spell are boosted by him dropping down two classes and Whispering Royal drops down one level for his handicap debut, but Legionar and Coup de Coeur are both up a class.

At 76 and 79 days off respectively, Magical Maggie and Tapley are the most rested, but that length of layoff should be an issue here and all the field have had pretty much three weeks or more to get over their last run.

Jilajione is the only one yet to score at this kind of trip, his sole win on debut was over 2m2f and only Ip Up has won on this track, as she landed a Class 4, good to soft ground handicap over course and distance by some 18 lengths back in November, five starts ago, as seen on Instant Expert below...

...where the top-rated (although aided by a 5lb claimer), 7 yr old mare Magical Maggie looks the pick of the bunch with an honourable mention to Matchless. Out of form Fransham's stats are very unappealing and Tapley's record at this level is poor and unless their place stats say they've been unlucky, I'll be disregarding them. And here are those place stats...

Fransham and Tapley's stats are better here, but they're still not close to the likes of Magical Maggie and also Matchless. This pair are expected to be up with the early pace, based on the field's most recent efforts...

...with only Jilaijone really considered to be a hold-up horse. This running style would now appear to be the final blow to his chances of breaking his 10-race drought, as this course and distance hasn't been kind to hold-up types in the past...

Summary

Coup de Coeur is our only LTO winner and is one of the 'form' horses here along with Magical Maggie and Ip Up. Magical Maggie was the eyecatcher from the Instant Expert win stats, whilst the place records of Matchless was also decent. The pace analysis only really served to help me rule out Jilaijone and in what looks a competitive race, I think I'll take Coup de Coeur, Magical Maggie and Ip Up as my three against the field.

I'd no odds to call upon at 2.45pm on Thursday, but if pushed for a 1-2-3 I'd probably go with them in the order I've listed them. Coup de Coeur was imperious at Sedgefield last time out and is 2 from 2 under today's jockey. Magical Maggie had a 14-length success at a higher grade two starts ago, but needs to get over a disappointing run last time out, whilst Ip Up was a recent course and distance winner.

Coup de Coeur here for me and E/W bets on all three if they're anything like 15/2 or bigger. Tapley might be the danger horse to my trio.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/03/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.10 Hexham
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 6.15 Southwell

...and I suppose it would be rude of me to ignore the Festival completely this week, so why don't I cast my amateur eye (plenty of pro analysis elsewhere on Geegeez!) over the 3.30 Cheltenham? 12 runners are set to go to post for the Grade 1 PP Stayers Hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft/heavy ground with more rain expected...

Crambo, Noble Yeats, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo all won last time out, whilst Asterion Forlonge and Paisley Park were both runners-up. Paisley Park has actually been a runner-up in each of his last three and most recently here over course and distance in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle, half a length being Noble Yeats, but is now 6lbs better off. Flooring Porter (winner of this race is 2021 & 2022) and Janidil also made the frame last time around, whilst Buddy One is the only runner here who didn't complete his last race, being pulled up before the last in Leopardstown's Grade 1 Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle.

All horses will carry 11st 10lbs here, but the assessors have the field rated 10lbs from top to bottom with Teahupoo's OR of 162 the highest, 3lbs better than Sire du Berlais with Noble Yeats rated at 'just' 152.

We know that Flooring Porter won this race in 2021 and 2022, but we've four other course and distance winners in the race in the shape of last year's winner Sire du Berlais, Noble Yeats (from LTO), Buddy One and Paisley Park. Dashel Drasher (2m4½f hurdle) and Sir Gerhard (2m½f NHF & 2m5f hurdle) have also won on this track, whilst only Asterion Forlonge, Janidil and Sir Gerhard are yet to win over a similar trip in UK/Ireland.

Instant Expert suggests that both Dashel Drasher and paisley park have struggled to win races at this class and/or trip over the last couple of years, but that most of the field have had some joy on soft or heavy ground...

...whilst it's 3 years since Janidil last tackled a hurdle when beaten by 11 lengths as 5th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett here in the 2020 Festival.

As you'd expect from such a high class field, the place stats from those races above don't help me towards a winner or an E/W bet...

...but they do lead me to write Home By The Lee off at this stage.

The place data for similar contests here at HQ say that the further forward a horse runs, the greater its chances of making the frame, but that most runners come from off the pace, having raced in mid-division...

...which based on the field's last couple of outings suggests that whilst Dashel Drasher, Flooring Porter, Home By the Lee, Buddy One & Noble Yeats might well be ideally positioned to make the frame (4 places generally, 5 at SkyBet, of course!)

...they're probably susceptible to a late run for the win from one or more of Asterion Forlonge, Paisley Park, Sir Gerhard and Teahupoo.

Summary

My personal shortlist for the race wasn't too far away from the names taken from the pace chart above and consisted of Asterion Forlonge, Crambo, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park, Sire du Berlais and Teahupoo. This meant that Asterion Forlonge, Flooring Porter, Noble Yeats, Paisley Park and Teahupoo featured on both lists.

So, whilst I'd love to able to prove why Sire du Berlais might still have something to offer, I can't justify it if we're only going off the data above (no room for sentiment, eh?)

Of the five left under consideration, Teahupoo is probably the best horse in the race, but 7/4 is no kind of money for me to be involved with. I do like Noble Yeats, based on his course and distance win here last time out, but he only narrowly defeated Paisley Park that day and the latter isn't carrying a penalty this time. Asterion Forlonge's only Grade 1 win came four years ago, but he does make the frame regularly at this level, whilst Flooring Porter knows exactly what's needed here.

In the end, Teahupoo probably wins this, but based on the 5.45pm market...

...I'd still be interested in Flooring Porter, Paisley Park and Asterion Forlonge as E/W possibles with Noble Yeats just a tad too short, unless he drifts. Don't forget, it's 5 places if you can get on with SkyBet!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/03/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Huntingdon
  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 7.45 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

Of all those races above, the Cheltenham is obviously the highest-rated, but only six including an odds-on favourite are set to go to post. We do, however, have a 'free' race containing a TS qualifier, So we're off to the 1.10 Huntingdon, a 14-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will pretty much be three miles on soft ground after an 80 yard rail movement is taken into account...

Whilst 14 runners takes me a little out of my comfort zone, my initial thoughts were that both LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and that with the bookies paying four places we get find a decent E/W pick or two. Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler are the only LTO winners here and the latter comes here seeking a hat-trick.

Call Off The Dogs and top-weight Twenty-Twenty both won two starts ago and the latter was third here over course and distance last time out. Kankin, Ramore Will, Supasunrise and Doyens de Ante have all won at least one of their last seven, but lower down in the weights, Family Pot, Est Illic and Boys of Wexford have failed to win any of their last 7, 15 and 8 races respectively, whilst featured runner Dusautior, Deja Rouge and Bolberry Down are still maidens after 3, 11 and 11 attempts each.

Most of the field raced at this level last time around, but Kankin, Ramore Will and Dusautior are all dropping down from Class 4 and the latter now makes a handicap debut after three modest hurdles efforts (beaten by 24, 33 and 60 lengths) over two miles. Perhaps he's really a 3-mile chaser? He also sports cheekpieces for the first time and has had wind surgery during the 107-day break following his last outing.

Elsewhere Deja Rouge wears a tongue tie for the first time in a bid to get off the mark at the twelfth attempt. That said, i wouldn't be holding my breath about a horse whose last six runs have seen him pulled up four times, finish 5th of 9 46 lengths adrift and was last home of eleven (74 lengths down) on his penultimate start.

Dusautior's 107-day break is the longest here, whilst our oldest (13) runner Ramore Will has been away for three months with the others all having raced in the last 2 weeks to 2 months; our two LTO winners were the most recently active, one of whom, Galway Mahler is one of two course and distance winners along with Doyens de Ante. Kankin and Supasunrise have also both won here in the past, landing 2m4f chases, whilst Twenty Twenty, Ramore Will, Martalmixjac and Family Pot have all won over similar trips to this one, as highlighted by Instant Expert below...

...where despite making a first appearance here at Huntingdon, Ramore Will seems to have the best 2-year record under expected conditions and he has won 3 of his last 7 over fences. From a win perspective, Boys of Wexford has struggled at Class 5 (1 from 8 in the last 2 years and 1 from 13 overall), whilst Family Pot 'boasts' a similarly poor record over this type of trip. Galway Mahler has yet to tackle a soft ground chase, but looks well suited otherwise.

If we're going to be looking at possible E/W opportunities, then we should consider the place stats from those races above and they look like this...

...from which I'm mostly interested in choosing from...

Twenty-two races isn't a huge sample size, but we've that many similar past races to draw upon to help us see what kind of running style might work best here and the stats tell us...

...that those setting the pace are far more successful than those chasing, but that those doing most of the chasing have the best place percentages. We track how horses run and this field's last few efforts look like this (with those I've already discounted greyed out)...

...with the top four of most immediate interest.

Summary

I originally suggested that our LTO winners Martalmixjac and Galway Mahler would be amongst the likely winners and both score well on Instant Expert and pace, but Galway Mahler scores best throughout and would be my choice here, hopefully at around 4/1 to 5/1 when the market opens. Martalmixjac should certainly runs his race and be thereorthereabuts, but I wouldn't expect him to be an E/W backable price for my stipulations.

This leaves Supasunrise who has been pretty consistent (4 top-3 finishes inc 1 win from his last 6) this season under today's jockey and Doyens de Ante who needs to bounce back to form after a couple of indifferent efforts. He was in great nick last season around this time of year finishing 2211 in and around this trip and could be dangerous if getting back near those performances. This pair are hopefully to be priced around the 9/1 & 20/1 mark respectively and could be decent E/W options with the 10/1-ish Family Pot one of the more likely alternatives.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/03/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...which is, as usual for this time of the year, very heavily Cheltenham-based. For those of you looking to separate your Festival bets from your non-Festival bets, then The Shortlist looks like this...

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Southwell

And although the 4.10 Cheltenham has four runners on The Shortlist, I'm going to leave that alone, as better pundits than I will have already written about it here on Geegeez. Yet away from Cheltenham we do have a 15-rated Shortlist runner in one of our 'free' races, so let's head towards the 5.55 Southwell for today's column. It's as far removed from the Festival as it could be, being a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Since finishing as a runner-up in back to back races at Wolverhampton in October and December 2023, The Craftymaster is six from six, including four wins on Tapeta, three over today's trip, one here at Southwell and one over course and distance, when two lengths clear last time out. None of his rivals won last time out, but Midnight Shimmer was a runner-up and Socialist Agenda was third of nione here over 1m6f. Aside from The Craftymaster, only Churchella has won any of their last seven races, as she scored three and five races ago.

Her hopes will be boosted by a drop down from Class 5, just as Zooks does in a first-time tongue tie, but any hope might extinguished by the fact that The Craftymaster also makes the same step down in grade, whilst Kintaro drops down two classes for his first run in cheekpieces.

The Craftymaster has five wins and a place from six efforts at 2m/2m½f and is 1 from 1 here at Southwell, but none of his rivals have scored at either track or trip with Instant Expert making our featured runner look a bit of a shoo-in...

Churchella's wins last September & December set her aside from the others on going and class, but she's still 3lbs higher than her last win despite losing her last two. That said, she ran pretty well to finish second of six over course and distance here two starts ago in what has been her only effort beyond 1m6f to date and this run is reflected below in the IE place stats...

...where bottom-weight Midnight Shimmer also becomes of interest and Sugarpiehoneybunch looks very vulnerable having made the frame just once in thirteen all-weather races. Just seven run here in total and over such a lengthy trip, my personal logic is that the draw really shouldn't have any effect on the outcome. Two miles is a long way to run after the gates open and even if you're six away from the rail, that shouldn't be the reason for not winning, but I'll check the stats anyway, of course.

I had to widen the search parameters to get anywhere near a working sample size, as follows...

...and although they (and I normally) say you can't argue with stats, I think that some hold more validity than others and I remain unconvinced that draw is as important in small-field staying races as it might be elsewhere (sorry, Matt!).  Pace, however, is a different story as race tactics/tempo can easily make or break a horse's chances and what we found from those races above was that leaders have a good record of making the frame, but don't manage to hold onto the lead...

If we look at the field's most recent efforts, I think that the lead will be contested by Zooks, Kintaro and Midnight Shimmer...

...which makes them very susceptible to late runs from The Craftymaster, Churchella and Socialist Agenda, as I've already put Sugarpiehoneybunch out of contention.

Summary

He's going to be terribly short, but barring some form of fluke or disaster, this has to be The Craftymaster's seventh win on the bounce. I know he's up in weight carrying a penalty but he's down in class and should blow these all away late on. I'm not a fan of backing shorties and there were no odds available at 3.15pm on Monday, but the two tissues I saw had him at 5/4 & 7/4 and if you can get those types of prices, then there could actually still be some value from a runner that I think should be odds on.

Elsewhere, Midnight Shimmer and Socialist Agenda should run their races and the tissues have them at around the 7/2 and 4/1 mark respectively, but the one I think that might beat them and make the frame would be Churchella at 11/2 or thereabouts. She's got some relatively recent winning form in the bank and has two wins and a runner-up finish from four rides with Danny Tudhope in the saddle and Danny is 19 from 88 (21.6% SR) on the tapeta here at Southwell, including 8 from 32 at Class 6, 7 from 21 on favourites, 5 from 30 for trainer David O'Meara and 2 from 2 on Class 6 favs.

Racing Insights, Monday 11/03/24

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 2.30 Plumpton
  • 3.40 Taunton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

Of those four raced, the highest-rated also has the widest pace spread, so let's have a look at the 3.40 Taunton, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m5f (after a 132 yd rail movement) on soft ground...

No LTO winners in the field, but both Enrilo and Broken Halo were runners-up ans the latter is the only runner in the field with a win in his last seven outings, having won six and seven races ago. Bottom-weight Jacamar is the only one to have completed all of his last seven starts, with Enrilo being the least successful at finishing, failing to do so four times from seven.

The top two in the weights, De Rasher Counter and Enrilo are both dropping down a class here and Laskalin wears cheekpieces for the first time. All seven have been seen in the last 25 to 58 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue (although stamina might) and the field are 0 from 3 at this track, whilst Cyclops' 2017 Boxing Day win in the Lincolnshire National over 3m3.6f at Market Rasen is the closest any of the field have come to winning over today's trip.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...with the experienced Cyclop having a reasonable return on the going/class. but has struggled to win more often over 3mf to 3m6f, as have the others who've tried to! Cyclop is our only previous soft ground winners, but Broken Halo and Jacamar are both more reliable at Class 3 from a win perspective. The overall poor recent form of the field is highlighted by none of the field being higher than their last winning mark, especially Jacamar and De Rasher Counter who are now rated some 13 and 14 pounds lower than their last wins. The place stats from those races above give us a little bit more to work with, thankfully...

...where again Cyclop's record looks decent, but most of that is historical rather than recent form.

Today's feature is pace and if we consult our pace analyser, we are advised that in 5 to 9-runner, 3m to 3m6f chases on good to soft/soft ground here at Taunton that runners willing to set the pace have the best records from both a win and place perspective

...and because we track/log how all horses race here in the UK, we can make a reasoned assumption as to how they might run here. We allocate a leader 4pts, a prominent runner gets 3pts, it's 2 pts for mid-division runners and 1pt for a hold-up horse and this is how the field have approached their last few outings...

...suggesting that First Lord de Cuet & Enrilo will be the pace options, whilst Broken Halo will need to pass all six rivals later on if he wants to win.

Summary

Despite the conditions and the distance of the race, it's said that pace should win the race here and the two pace options are First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo. The former has yet to win any of 11 starts over fences, but has been a runner-up six times and as his weight drops, he might be ready to win. The latter ran really well to finish second of twelve over 3m7½f in the Edinburgh National recently, even if he was beaten by some 21 lengths. He's down in both trip and class here and could go well again, even if Harry Cobden has chosen to ride stable-mate Broken Halo. That said, 5lb claimer Angus Cheleda has ridden him in three of his last four starts.

Cobden is aboard Broken Halo, who won both the Royal Artillery & Grand Military last year and was runner-up in this year's Grand Military (last time out), so he's clearly no mug but is unproven beyond 3m½f and hasn't a great record on soft ground, so I'm not sold on him completely. De Rasher Counter looks like being third rank from a pace perspective, but carrying top weight after a run of thirteen defeats stretching back to November 2019 leaves me cold. Laskalin is interesting even if the data I've shown above gives him little chance, but he has made the frame in 3 of 9 at this level and has first-time cheekpieces. He's interesting because he's trained by Venetia Williams and when you think of soft-ground staying chasers, she's one of the first trainers you think of.

So, Laskalin probably isn't a winner here, but he'll certainly relish the conditions. We've discussed Cyclop quite a bit above during the Instant Expert analysis, so it's fair to say that he should get these conditions, but might well have to come from way off the pace. Whether he can do that here is debatable, but if not too far detached might well get close to or even make the frame. Last, but not least, we have Jacamar, who might not be too far ahead of Laskalin early doors and doesn't really like soft ground. he did actually win as recently as 1st Feb '23, but has lost ten straight since then, including a pretty heavy defeat last time out.

Late-evening (9.15pm) odds look like this...

...from which I think I prefer First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo to battle it out up top. Of the three priced at what I'd deem E/W money, Cyclop would be the one that I'd be more interested in. 18/1 in a seven-horse race where the bookies are paying three places looks quite generous and you might make a small profit there.

Racing Insights, Friday 08/03/2024

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one UK qualifier plus one in Ireland...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk
  • 8.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Newcastle

...which doesn't actually give me a great deal of choice, seeing as I don't really 'do' Irish racing. That said, Enola Grey's race above is the joint third-highest rated race in the UK and the day's second most valuable, so let's have a closer look at the 7.30 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight mile on standard tapeta...

Sole LTO winner and bottom weight Danielsflyer comes here on a hat-trick after scoring over course and distance a week ago. Hartswood, Lahab, Hortzadar, Gainsbourg, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey and Star Shield have all won once in their last seven outings, whilst Paris Lights has lost seven in a row and Torchlight, King Sharja and L'Argent have yet to win after four, three and four attempts respectively; L'Argent was also 0 from 4 in France.

The card also indicates that Hartswood, featured horse Enola Grey and Star Shield are fast finishers, but the latter pair of that trio are both up one class here, as are King Sharja and L'Argent, whilst bottom-weight hat-trick seeker Danielsflyer is up two levels, making life tougher.

Better news for Torchlight, who drops two classes for her second handicap outing; Lahab also makes a secind handicap appearance, whilst it's handicap debut day for King Sharja, who runs for Ruth Carr for the very first time after leaving Richard Hannon's yard.

Not only is this his handicap and yard debut, it's also his first run in almost ten months, during which time he was gelded, so he might well need the run. Lahab and Hartswood are coming off short breaks of 52 and 61 days respectively and the rest of the field have all had at least one outing in the last month.

Half of the field (Hartswood, Hortzadar, Trais Fluors, Enola Grey, Star Shield and Danielsflyer) are course and distance winners, whilst Gainsbourg has also won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...but the overall picture isn't great for many of these. Kng Sharja makes an A/W debut and Star Shield's record on the A/W especially at track/trip is particularly poor. Thnakfully the place stats from those races above give me more to work with...

...from which, I'm going to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield from my enquiries leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 and 12 over a course and distance that has tended to suit the higher-drawn (7+) runners most...

...which is another tick for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight, who will run from widest of all. Mind you, there are no bends to contend with, so she just needs to aim straight! Those 150+ races above don't seem to have much of a pace bias and horses have been able to win with any running style...

Leaders have fared worst of all, but the difference in strike rates isn't huge and I wouldn't rule Lahab out of the running, simply because his recent runs have shown that he likes to set the pace...

Summary

A bit of a strange one today, as very few of these are in good form and the form horse is up two classes. We didn't get anything from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats led me to eliminate Hartswood, Hortzadar, King Sharja, Gainsbourg and Star Shield. We then discovered that those drawn highest seemed to have an advantage which was better news for Lahab, Enola Grey, Paris Lights and Torchlight and the lack of any distinct pace bias leaves all four in my thoughts.

Of the four, it's easy/sensible to discard Star Shield on current form, leaving me with my three vs the field, but I think that without any clear guidance from the toolkit (and this does happen, we're not perfect!), the smart move is to call no bet and walk away, move to your next race and that's what I'll do here. I think that my final three will all go well here, but I really can't call it in what look a super-competitive event, as exemplified by the 6pm market, where the top seven in the odds are separated by just 1.5pts...

Good luck whichever way you play this one, but I'll keep my money in my pocket.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Friday) for Saturday's racing, as I'm travelling down to Exeter so sort some University stuff out for my daughter, so I'll be back Sunday evening with a race preview for Monday. I hope you all have a great weekend.

Racing insights, Thursday 07/03/2024

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.25 Wincanton
  • 3.45 Carlisle
  • 4.55 Carlisle
  • 7.oo Newcastle

...and whilst probably not the best race of the four, the one with most Instant Expert data to work with appears to be the 7.00 Newcastle, which is an 8-runner (hopefully good for E/W bettors), Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this might end up being a two-horse race between our only LTO winner, the filly Sunblock and the consistent (placed in each of his last five) track specialist Likeashadow, who is our sole course and distance winner.

Redondo was a winner two starts ago and East Bank won on debut six races ago, but the field is pretty shy on 'recent' wins otherwise, as is often the case at Class 6. The top three in the weights, Mariamne, East Bank and Likeashadow all drop a class here with the latter now sporting blinkers for the first time. Bottom weight Ocean Bliss makes a debut in a visor and it's just a second handicap start for both Sunblock and Noble Consort.

Both Ocean Bliss and Sunblock were in action last weekend and most of the rivals have also raced in the last 14-44 days, but it's not inconceivable that (the so-far not so) Amazing Winnie might need the run after almost six months off. We know that Likeashadow loves it here (as Instant Expert will show below) and that he's the only course and distance winner in the line-up. Of his rivals, Sunblock's win over 7f at Wolverhampton last weekend is the only other distance win, whilst only one other has won here at Newcastle, as Redondo scored over a mile two starts ago and only failed by a head to 'double up' next/last time out.

We don't get a great detail from the win stats on Instant Expert, but the place stats should be more helpful...

On the win stats, I probably hold more sway with Likeashadow's full line of amber off more runs, than Redondo's line of green that weighs heavily on one win, but both also do very well on the place side of thing with Likeashadow the standout for me again, based on his sheer consistency over a dozen A/W runs, especially in his ten here at Newcastle where his form reads 8113422333 including 81423 over course and distance.

So, as things stand, we've Sunblock on form, Likeashadow on consistency and Likeashadow/Redondo on Instant Expert catching the eye. Now let's see what the draw/pace data might tell us.

The Draw Analyser says...

...showing a somewhat surprising bias for a straight seven furlongs, but the data is what the data is and could be good news for Sunblock & Redondo in stalls 6 & 7; Ocean Bliss is drawn widest of all, whilst the Pace Analyser says that those 130+races above have suited runners keen to get on with things, but that those setting the pace have often had a target on their backs...

...so an average pace score closer to 3.00 rather than 4.00 might be the answer and this is reflected in the dominance of the high-drawn prominent runner on the pace/draw heatmap below...

Sadly we're not going to get the perfect pace/draw setup from this field and I think we might have a falsely run race with only one runner showing much aptitude for early pace...

...although Redondo did lead for 6.5f of a one mile race in Navan three starts ago and a similar run here puts him right in the mix. Amazing Winnie isn't exactly a confirmed front runner anyway and on A/W debut after nearly six months off, I'm not sure she'd hold on to even a place anyway.

Summary

Prior to looking at pace/draw, my favoured trio were Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo and the latter pair of those three have got really good draws. We then look at pace and I can see this being a falsely run race, which often plays into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, as they'll have less ground to make up on the leaders this time and all three of my trio have been held up three or more times in their last four outings.

I've seen nothing to change my mind so I'm sticking with Sunblock, Likeashadow and Redondo as my three from the field. I suspect it'll be tight between the first two with Redondo settling for the places and I'd expect Likeashadow to be more of a value option than Sunblock.

I'm out later this afternoon/evening at a function, so I'm early to press and as of 2.15pm, there were no odds available, but I'm happy with my selections and I'm hoping there's some E/W viability about them, especially Likeashadow.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/03/2024

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...1-year form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

Our three 'free' races and our four TS races have nothing better than Class 4 to offer us, mind you Class 4 is as 'good' as it gets this Wednesday and of the three Class 4 races above, only two have eight runners or more, from which one is a maiden hurdle, leaving me to focus upon the 6.30 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack as is often the norm here...

FORM : Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Nariko both won last time out, whilst LTO runner-up Media Shooter won two starts ago, Roman Emperor won four races back and Kinnigoli Kid won three back, but Mashadi and Brunel Nation are both maidens after five and three outings respectively, although Mashadi was the runner-up in each of his first four starts.

CLASS : All bar Jungle Mac, Macanudo and Brunel Nation ran at this level last time, but his trio all step up a class, which surely won't help the latter to get off the mark?

WHAT'S NEW? : It's handicap debut day for Jungle Mac, Nariko and Brunel Nation and a second handicap start for Kinnigoli Kid. It's also yard debut day for both Macanudo and Nariko, whilst both Mashadi and Brunel Nation run for the first time since being gelded. This will also be the first time that Mashadi, Kinnigoli Kid and Brunel Nation have raced on anything other than turf.

LAST RUN : Half of the field have raced in the last 11-26 days, but Brunel Nation, Nariko, Mashadi and Kinnigoli Kid now return from lengthy absences of 142, 161, 162 and 199 days respectively.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Macanudo and the two maidens Mashadi and Brunel Nation have already won at least once over today's trip with both Media Shooter and Nariko having won over course and distance on their penultimate and last runs respectively and those course wins can be seen below on INSTANT EXPERT...

As is often the case, we get more information from the place data than we do from the win stats when we deal with inexperienced runners and it's good to see that those who have faced similar conditions in the past have ran well. Seven to nine runner contests over this left-handed six furlongs at Kempton have definitely favoured those drawn lowest, according to our draw analyser...

...which could be very good news for one of the two Instant Expert stand-outs, the in-form Media Shooter who has landed stall 1 here, but getting the best draw is only half of the story here at Kempton as best explained by the pace analyser from those 200+ races above, where there's a clear emphasis on being up with if not setting the pace...

...rendering this draw/pace heat map pretty unsurprising...

So,we know that Media Shooter has the plum #1 draw, but his best chances of winning are going to be by running prominently or better still, setting the tempo of the race. Fortunately for his chances here, this is how he raced when a runner-up over course and distance last time out...raced keenly, led 1f, chased leader, led again inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong..and when a course and distance winner two starts ago...chased leaders, switched left, effort and pushed along 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well.

This gave him a pace score of 3 in both races and here's how the whole field have approached their most recent contests...

...which suggests that Roman Emperor and Jungle Mac from stalls 2 and 7 might well dispute the early lead, but I suspect that having Roman Emperor just next door will drag Media Shooter along nicely.

Summary

Form, Instant Expert, draw and pace all point me towards Media Shooter here and I'm hoping that once the markets are formed that we can get 4/1 to 5/1 about him. I might be being a little optimistic there, of course, but he's the one that interests me most here. Next best might well be Jungle Mac who also comes here in good nick, having defied a 132-day absence to get off the mark recently. He hasn't been too badly treated with an opening mark of 79 and much will depend on his ability to get to the front early on from stall 7.

I like these two because not only are recent results good and they've got the 'right' pace profile for this contest, but they've also both raced in the last 17 days. Coming off a break is tough in sprint contests here at Kempton, but of the four returning from a layoff, the filly Nariko would be the one most likely to get involved. She cost 600,000 guineas at the breeze-up and was a course and distance winner on her last outing.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/03/2024

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Esprit du Potier (The Potter's Spirit?) must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 6.30 Southwell
  • 8.30 Southwell

The first of our trio of 'free' evening races is not only the joint highest-rated race in the UK for Tuesday, but also the most valuable, so let's have a look at who might land the £7851 top prize in the 6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

As I'm a bit later than usual going 'live ' today, I've already seen the market, which I don't usually do and my initial thoughts about the race were that the top four in the market are probably the ones to look hardest at ie Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day in card order, but the analysis might tell me otherwise.

None of the ten managed to win last time out, but Assessment has won two of his last four, Borgi was an LTO runner-up and Leap Day has been runner-up in each of his last two. Tropez Power, Perseverants and Vecchio are winless in 8, 7 and 7 with Vecchio being a seven-race maiden, whilst despite not winning any of his last eight, Tropez Power has made the frame in seven of his last twelve starts, winning twice.

Borgi, fast-finishing Master of Combat, Perseverants, Vecchio and bottom weight Three Yorkshiremen all step up a class here, whilst Leap Day and Life On The Rocks are both up two classes today. Top weight Assessment makes a yard debut for Archie Watson after leaving Sir Michael Stoute, but might well need the run after a 285-day break, especially as all his rivals have raced in the last 15-45 days.

Vecchio, Life On The Rocks and Borgi have yet to win over this type of distance, but the latter has at least won here at Southwell, landing a 7f maiden on debut back in February 2022. Of his rivals, only Leap Day and Tropez Power have also scored here and both are course and distance winners with the latter having a 131 record from three attempts, making him just about the pick from an average looking set of numbers on Instant Expert...

I say average, rather than poor because all of the red above is from sample sizes of four races or less and if any were to win a race soon, they'd soon be at 20% or higher. Now, whilst the win stats above don't exactly point us towards any sort of decision or help whittle the field down, the same cannot be said about the following place data from the same parameters...

...because they're saying (to me, at least) that we focus on the four I initially mentioned plus Master of Combat, giving us runners in stalls 2, 3, 7, 8 and 10, which might make the draw stats very interesting. Let's check...

...the basic 'split the field into three' stats says that higher drawn runners don't make the frame often enough, but that mid-drawn runners fare best of all, which isn't good considering I've eliminated the runners in stalls 4, 5 and 6! But all is not lost, as the PRB3 data suggests that those drawn lowest still have a good chance of beating most of their rivals...

...whilst the pace data from those very races above...

...says we should avoid pace-setters and hold-up horses wherever possible and that doesn't bode too well for either Leap Day nor Tropez Power from my shortlist.

Summary

I had four runners (Assessment, Tropez Power, Borgi and Leap Day) in mind from the start and I added Master of Combat to the list during my analysis. Master of Combat has been in decent nick and could be an outside bet for the places, but (a) I think he's the least likely of the five to succeed and (b) I'd want more than 7/1 to go E/W on him, even if both Hills and Sky are offering four places.

Then, of my original four, I've doubts about Assessment's race sharpness after more than nine months off. He certainly has ability/promise, but odds of 13/8 to 2/1 don't scream value to me after such a long absence and he is drawn widest of all. Tropez Power is a former course and distance winner and drawn low, but is held-up for a run more often than not and those tactics are a negative here. Borgi has won here before, will be handily placed from a pace perspective from a low draw and the only issue with him is a step up in class, whilst Leap Day is not only up two classes, he's a confirmed front runner and will be the target they will all aim at.

None of my final four tick all the boxes, but after looking back at the market's best odds at 6.30pm...

...my tentative 1-2 would be Borgi to beat Tropez Power, who'll have to avoid traffic on a late run. Leap Day has a better draw than Assessment and might hold him off for the place money.

Racing Insights, Monday 04/03/2024

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.05 Southwell
  • 2.17 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in any of those, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 3.52 Plumpton instead. It's the highest rated race in the UK on Monday and there's seems to be a good spread in terms of pace scores, as you see shortly. The race itself is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2 miles and 74 yards (after a 99yd rail movement) on soft ground...

My initial thoughts here were that it should be a competitive contest between Mr Freedom, Classic Lord, Mr Mackay and Saligo Bay (in racecard order), with the remaining trio fighting not to be last home, but the analysis might tell/persuade me otherwise, so let's look at the details of a field that have all raced inside the last 73 days and have all (bar Classic Lord@ 18 days off) had at least five weeks rest.

Holly is our sole LTO winner, but Mr Freedom was a runner-up, as were Classic Lord and Mr Mackay. Classic Lord is two from his last four and Mr Freedom has only failed to finish in the first three once in his last nine outings (1113233U2) and all runners here have managed at least one win in their last seven efforts, apart from bottom weight and handicap debutant Highway One O Five, who is a six-race maiden who has yet to make the frame in three efforts over hurdles, being beaten by 17.5, 14.5 and 40.5 lengths and it's hard to imagine him winning here.

Holly, Classic Lord, Saligo Bay and Mardoof (who runs in a handicap for just the second time) are all up one class from C4 today, but all four have previously won at this kind of trip, as has top-weight Mr Freedom, who has also previously won here at Plumpton, landing a 2m1½f hurdle back in September 2022. Saligo Bay is the only other course winner, having landed a seller over course and distance two starts ago.

Instant Expert looks a bit bleak today...

...with a distinct lack of positivity, aside from our two course winners, of whom, Saligo Bay looks the pick on those meagre stats, especially with the top two on card both rated more than half a stone heavier than their last wins. I should, however, point out that not all of the defeats above have been bad runs and there have been quite a few placed efforts...

...with Mr Freedom's consistency catching the eye, along with Mardoof (trip), Mr Mackay (class/trip) and Saligo Bay (course and distance).

Today's free feature is, of course, pace and pace is as important over a two mile hurdle as it is over say a mile on the Flat, because race tactics and judgement of tempo are crucial in both. We have two ways into the pace data, firstly via our pace analyser, which for this race looks like this...

...which says that runners setting the pace/tempo of the race have a 26.32% strike rate, whilst those who don't lead only win 11.3% of the time, so leaders are 2.33 times more likely to win and by the same calculations are1 .69 times more likely to make the frame. So the first part of how we use pace is both interesting and useful, but how can we apply it to this race?

How will we know who's going to lead? Well, the truth is that we don't know, but we do know how horses have approached all the previous UK & Ireland races and by looking back at their most recent efforts, we can make an informed opinion (guess?), as to how they'll run again. We award 1 to 4 pts for every run, 1 for a hold-up horse, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led. So if a horse has a recent average pace score of  1.50 or lower, then he'll look like a hold-up horse, but runners with an average approaching or hitting 4.0 will be expected to be the pacesetters, just like Classic Lord here...

Summary

Today's free feature is pace and we've been told that leaders do far better here than those who don't and our proven pace horse is Saligo Bay, who has made the frame in 2 from 5 on soft ground, 3 from 5 here at Plumpton and 8 from 11 over this type of trip. He's also our only course and distance winner and he'd be the one I'd go with here. Next best for me is probably Mr Freedom, who raced prominently last time out, has made the frame in 8 of his last 9, scoring really well on the place element of Instant Expert and is our other former course winner.

The opening show from Hills suggests we're not getting rich here..

...but hopefully we'll get a good run from the two I've highlighted.

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/03/2024

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following qualifiers for me to consider...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year form...

...whilst I can also call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.35 Navan
  • 1.55 Newbury
  • 3.48 Navan
  • 4.00 Kelso
  • 4.15 Doncaster

...and with a top class contest on the 'free' list, I'm going to look at the 1.55 Newbury, also known as the Greatwood Gold Cup, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Not only is joint bottom-weight Highstakesplayer our only LTO winner, he has also won his last three and five of his last six, finishing as runner-up in the defeat. I should however point out that those six runs were 2 x Class 5, then 3 x Class 4 before a Class 3 last time out, so he's no shoo-in here. Elsewhere all his rivals have won at least once in their last seven outings (Bill Baxter & Gemirande twice, Jetoile Grandeur Dame & Heltenham 3 times) with Gustavian's six consecutive defeats the coldest run of form on show.

So we know that in-form Highstakesplayer is up two classes here and so is Sir Psycho, whilst out of form Gustavian steps up one class, as does Heltenham who was a runner-up just a week ago. On reflection, I suppose Jetoile's recent 4th place in a Cheltenham Class 1 is the best recent run of this field, especially as he won the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree on his penultimate start.

All bar Gemirande have raced in the last 5 weeks, but he hasn't been seen for over ten months now and although he was 2nd past the post (placed 3rd after the stewards got involved) in a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time out, it's not inconceivable that he might need the run here, but like all bar Sir Psycho, he has already won over this trip. Only Kandoo Kid and Heltenham have won here at Newbury before (Jetoile & Gemirande are the only others to have raced here, mind) and both have won over course and distance...

Sadly, we don't glean a great deal from the win stats on Instant Expert above, but what I did spot was that Heltenham, Gemirande, Grandeur D'ame, Sir Psycho and Kandoo kid are 7 to 11lbs higher than their last winning marks, despite not coming here in great form, so that has to be a worry for their chances. The win stats did show that plenty of these will 'get' the trip readily enough but that the field lacks experience at going, class and course.

On the other hand, the place stats suggest that a few of these should relish the conditions with Jetoile, Gemirande and Heltenham showing green in four of the five categories. If the field approaches this race as they have done in their last few outings, then those three I mentioned from Instant Expert might not see too much of each other...

...with Gemirande a proven front-runner and Heltenham tending to bide his time. Jetoile normally runs in mid-division, whilst Gemirande's biggest challenge for an early lead is likely to come from Sir Psycho or Grandeur D'ame. The stats for similar past races would tend to suggest that Heltenham will be at a disadvantage if he's held up for a third race in a row...

...and that he should revert to racing further forward as he did three and four races back, when making the frame on both occasions, winning once.

Summary

There's no standout performer here, aside from Highstakesplayer's recent set of results, but that was all at a lower level than this. I suspect confidence will be high, though and that he'll probably still manage to beat most of this field. I've not got him marked as a winner, but if the odds are reasonable enough, he'd be an E/W option, as would Heltenham who is a proven placer at the trip as long as he doesn't become detached at the rear and that's the gamble with him, I suppose. he's low in the weights and has won over course and distance and I fancy him to make a good fist of this.

My preference, however, is Jetoile, who won back to back Chepstow contests last year before landing the grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree in October. He was a decent fourth after a three month break last time out, he's 3 from 3 over 2m4f and his form on soft/heavy ground reads 12321, so let's check the market at 5.15pm Friday...

Highstakesplayer is too short to back E/W for me, but I'd be happy to take 8/1 E/W about Heltenham. As for Jetoile, I think he has what it takes to win here, but 10/1 is very good when IO was expecting around 7's, so whilst I'm backing him, I might well hedge my bets.

Racing Insights, Friday 01/03/2024

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no UK qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.37 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 6.45 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...from which I'll tackle the first on the list, the 2.37 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

FORM : Bottom-weight Balon D'or is the only one of the twelve runners without a win in their last five (or fewer) outings, having been beaten in all ten starts since winning on debut almost eleven months ago. Those with multiple wins in the recent formline include Brave Empire (3 from 4), Salvuccio (2 from 4), Billy Webster (3 from 4), Blue Prince (2 from 3), Beyond Borders (3 from 3 and 4 from 6), Photosynthesis (2 from 5) and McLoven who is 2 from 3; Brave Empire won last time out, Billy Webster comes here seeking a hat-trick and Beyond Borders completed a hat-trick last time out, so plenty are in good form.

CLASS : Only five of the field ran at Class 2 last time out, as top weight Rosario was a Group 3 runner-up, whilst McLoven was 8th of 9 in a Class 3 handicap and moves up a level here. Bigger steps are taken by Billy Webster (won), Beyond Borders (won), Photosynthesis (3rd of 6) and Balon D'or (3rd of 6) who all raced in Class 4 handicaps, whilst Salvuccio's last UK run saw him win a Class 5 novice race and I suspect this will be tougher.

WHAT'S NEW : Quite a bit it appears! Rosario and The Coffee Pod are both on handicap debut, whilst Salvuccio and World of Darcy make just a second handicap appearance. Photosynthesis, Salvuccio and Blue Prince all run for the first time since being gelded and the latter has been highlighted as a fast finisher, whilst Balon D'or wears a cheekpiece/tongue tie combo for the first time.

LAST SEEN : Rosario, The Coffee Pod and McLoven have all been off the track for 20 weeks and might need the run, as might Beyond Borders after a 16-week absence. Elsewhere, aside from Billy Webster's 8-weeks off, the remainder of the field have all raced in the last 21-26 days.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Blue Prince (Newcastle, Southwell & York), Beyond Borders (Newcastle, Pontefract, Thirsk & Wolverhampton)), The Coffee Pod (York) and World of Darcy (Nottingham) have all won over this trip away from Lingfield, whilst both Brave Empire and Photosynthesis are course and distance winners. McLoven has also won here but over 5f. Much of this will show below in Instant Expert, of course...

...and if we remove Turf runs...

...we initially see that Rosario and The Coffee Pod are on A/W debuts. Overall Balon D'or looks vulnerable at both class and trip, whilst G'day Mate has a full line of red across both codes, whilst World of Darcy's Class 5, 6f win at Nottingham is all that stands between him and a line of red too. Conversely, Brave Empire looks a solid contender on the above data and this is backed up by his place percentages...

...where my attention is also grabbed by Blue Prince (trip), Beyond Borders (trip) and The Coffee Pod (class & trip), which is handy as I suspect the bookies might pay four places here.

With a dozen runners attacking a bend on a 6f sprint, the draw might have plenty to do with the outcome here today and the stats from past similar places look like this...

.with those drawn in the lowest third (ie stalls 1-4) winning 1.18 times more often than those in stalls 5-8 and 1.37 times more often than the highest third. As for the places, those figures are very similar at 1.14 and 1.27 and this advantage in being drawn low is highlighted by the PRB3 figures...

...where the first 5 (possibly 6/7) in the stalls would appear to have a clear advantage. If we then look at how those 130+ races above were won...

...we see another clear advantage forming as the further forward a horse has raced, the better its chances of making the frame and ultimately winning have been and unsurprisingly, low to mid-drawn pace-setters have been the most successful in those races...

The pace tab on our racecards show how the runners have approached their most recent UK races, enabling us to (a) make a reasoned assumption to how the race will unfold and (b) see where exactly in the stalls that early pace is going to cone from, as follows...

...where the suggestion is that McLoven will attempt to hit the front early and try to stay there, whilst the likes of Salvuccio, Rosario and Blue Prince are going to have to pass plenty of traffic if they want to win. If we put this data into stall order, we get this...

...where the four of the top five pace scores are in the lower half of the draw and when we place that graphic over the heat map from the last 60 such contests...

Summary

The inference from the pace/draw stats and heat map is that McLoven will run a big race here and whilst not an obvious winner based on a poor run last time out and a 140-day absence, he is 2 from 2 on the A/W including a win here over 5f on handicap debut last September where he made all. He'll probably need the run, but I'm not quite ready to discount him as an E/W possible if I can get a decent price about him.

Beyond Borders is next of interest on that chart and is in great form, winning each of his last three outings and he's also 2 from 2 on the A/W, but like McLoven, has been off a while. His A/W runs have both been on tapeta, so it's a polytrack debut and he's up 5lbs for a 0.75 length win, which makes this tough. I'll probably discount him from my win considerations, but he too could be an E/W possible. G'day Mate is the other standout from pace/draw, but he was only fourth of five behind Brave Empire here over course and distance last time out, so that rules him out and brings me to Brave Empire himself. Not ideally drawn, nor fast away and I think that might be his undoing, as it might well be for Rosario, which is a pity as I think they might be the best two in the race.

Rosario makes an A/W debut and I just can't back him, based on that plus the pace/draw stats and his 140-day absence, but something niggles me saying he just might win. Brave Empire was suited by the way the race unfolded last time out, but pace/draw relegate him to the ranks of E/W possible too and I'll be honest, I'm struggling to find/pick a winner here!

Let's look at the 5.10pm market to see how those mentioned so far are priced and I see that we have Rosario at 11/2 (PP/betfair), Brave Empire at 7/1 (bet365), Beyond Borders at 10/1 (generally) and McLoven at 22/1 (PP/betfair/Hills) and I think I'm going to have small E/W bets on the latter trio; Rosario is just a bit too short.

I could make a case for Photosynthesis and Salvuccio, but they're not attractively priced enough for me at 7/2 and 7/1, so I'll stick with my trio of E/W hopefuls.

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/02/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.32 Clonmel
  • 4.35 Wetherby
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

...the best of which looks like being the 4.35 Wetherby, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip just 66yds shy of 2m4f on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Whilst War Soldier was a winner last time out, the form horse has to be North Parade who comes here on the back of a hat-trick of successes. As a n 8-race maiden, Paddy O'Mahler is the only one winless in their last seven races, a spell during which The Four Sixes and Hajey have won twice, War Soldier, North Parade and El Jefe three times with sole mare Windtothelightning winning four of seven.

The mare won her last race at Class 3 before finishing fourth at Class 2 and then she fell in a Listed race at Haydock recently, but she's back down two classes here today, whilst Hajey and North Parade step up one level. It's hard to see how Paddy O'Mahler finally gets off the mark here, though, as he steps up two classes. His shortest margin of defeat over hurdles is 14 lengths at Class 4 three starts ago and I'm happy to write off his chances here at Class 3.

Of the eight still 'under consideration', only The Four Sixes has yet to win over a similar trip, but his two wins came at 2m½f and 2m6f, so the trip shouldn't be beyond him. He has, however, already won here at Wetherby, scoring over 2m6f at this grade on soft ground when prevailing by six lengths on Boxing Day two starts ago and was in the frame LTO over 2m4½f here last time out. The other two previous course winners, top-weight Windtothelightning and War Soldier are both course and distance winners from three and one starts ago respectively.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, says that over the last couple of years...

...Windtothelightning, The Four Sixes, War Soldier and North Parade have proven themselves best under expected conditions here, whilst Ubetya hasn't tackled a hurdle for exactly 4 years since our last "leap day" and his recent form over fences (53PP) hasn't been great. Hajey has a reasonable record, but El Jefe looks vulnerable above. The place stats suggest that most of them should go well on the soft/heavy ground...

...but 1st and 3rd from a 2m4½f race here (War Soldier & The Four Sixes) have the best set of figures along with top weight Windtothelightning and if recent efforts are repeated here, that re-opposing duo might find themselves being at the head of the chasing group behind likely pacemaker Hajey (who sadly seems to save his best work for Catterick)...

...and setting the pace could well be his best chance of winning on his course debut...

Summary

If we look back on recent form, historical form via Instant Expert  and pace suitability, two horses get a mention each time, War Soldier and The Four Sixes and this pair finished a length and a half apart here over course and distance last time out. The latter is technically 2lbs better off here, which could/would be vital but for a 3lb claimer taking the ride instead of the 5lb claimer from last time.

That said, today's jockey, Lewis Stones, is 1 from 1 on The Four Sixes, courtesy of a 2m6f win here two starts ago and I think that might just be enough to tip the balance. I suspect it'll be tight here, but I've a marginal preference for The Four Sixes over War Soldier. As for an E/W bet or even a candidate for those of you doing the tricast/trifectas, the market at 5.10pm...

...has Hajey as my most likely E/W option, but I think the bookies might have it right and that Windtothelightning could make the frame instead. In fairness, it's a tricky/competitive race to call with eight of the nine runners only separated by 5,5pts in the market based on best available odds.

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