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Roving Reports: The End of the Line

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In many ways, I'm glad it's York that's the end of the line as far as my life as a bookmaker's workman has gone, as it's one of the more pleasurable tracks to work, writes David Massey. Nice crowds, little trouble over the years, and with many punters returning time after time to the Ebor meeting, I've made some new friends too. More on that in a moment.

I say this is the end - the door is always open, I've been told, so who knows, perhaps the odd guest appearance here and there might still be a possibility? And of course, you'll still see me through the winter at good ol' Southwell, working for Rob and the S&D mob, but as far as the summer work goes, York is very much the final stop. But pastures new beckon, and exciting projects to get stuck into.

These tales won't disappear either, but they'll obviously have a new slant. I'll now have more time to take in my surroundings, which means a lot more complaining about roadworks, bad food, awful digs (have I told you about Yarmouth? I will do, shortly...) so these articles might start reading less like the humorous pieces they're supposed to be, and more like two-star Trip Advisor reviews. [DM, we need to talk..! - Ed.]

So Yarmouth first - I went there for their two-day meeting earlier in the month and, after my usual landlady couldn't find me a spot in her hotel, I admit to leaving booking somewhere rather late, but found a place that looked okay on the website. Not a palace by any means, but somewhere to rest my weary head.

On arriving at said place, just after 3pm, the first thing I can hear is a lot of shouting from round the back of the hotel. The second thing I see, as I enter my digs, is that there hasn't been a Hoover pushed around the floor for quite some time. I'm already getting nervous as I pick the room key up from the receptionist, who has a face like he's worn out, although presumably not from vacuuming.

I get to the room and open the door. The horror.

The bed is unmade with last nights sheets on. The shower and bathroom are full of used wet towels. There are half-drunk coffee cups everywhere and whatever that stain is on the carpet I don't know, and don't want to know.

I return downstairs and hand the keys back. I'm offered another room but the damage is done. I'm out. A sheer piece of luck ensues as I bump into my usual landlady who goes into crisis mode and starts ringing around her B&B friends. I'm delighted to say this ends well as I'm found a great room for the night that's so near the course I could walk in.

Do I name the hotel of horrors? Put it this way - my new work partner Victoria is great, but clearly not all Victorias are as good as she is....

And so to York. The first thing to say is how quiet it was for the first three days. The Thursday in particular was very poor business-wise. Seven races, and in five of them, I couldn't take £300 a race. Wednesday first though, and a cracking day of racing ahead.

No sooner have I set up in my usual position than a group of ladies who come on this day every year appear in front of me. "DAVE!!!". I know that voice. It's Emma, who asked me out last year but sadly for her, as I told her then, I was getting married the following month. It's literally the first thing she asks me. "Did you get married, then?" I inform her I did. "I don't suppose you want an affair, do you?" Emma, ladies and gentleman, is a bad influence. However, they are a good laugh and keep me entertained all afternoon.

The racing itself is fantastic but in terms of taking a bet, the biggest I manage all afternoon is a £300 on Los Angeles, who gamely scrambles home by a neck. The strong wind that's almost behind them means track records are falling, and I will be proud to say I was there to see City Of Troy win the Juddmonte. I was one of the doubters beforehand but that particular crabbing-club is now surely defunct.

At the end of the day the ladies are back for the yearly group photo. Emma hasn't given up. "Are you sure there's no way I can tempt you into something naughty?" she asks. I stand on the joint and the ladies gather around me for the photo but Emma grabs the fake-grass mat I stand on, puts it on the floor and kneels on it in front of me. We will stop at his point as this is a family-friendly column but I will leave it to your imaginations, dear readers, as to the pose Emma took. I repeat - Emma is a VERY bad influence.

So a quiet start to the week, and it's back to the usual digs which I have to say I won't miss that much. The rooms themselves are fine, just that the walls are paper-thin, so when the bloke above you comes back at midnight after being in the pub and falls asleep with the telly on too loud, a ticket to morningtown does not come easily.

Thursday. The wind is getting up again. My good friend James, who cost me £20 yesterday as part of his placepot (we went out leg five with 8 x £1 lines on the go at the time, then doubled up again last leg, ouch) is back with another perm which I once again invest in, having gone so close yesterday. We go out leg 1, and promptly get the next five legs up. I hate placepots.

As stated, business is no better than yesterday, worse in fact, although a well-known ring bookmaker has a grand at 7-4 Arizona Blaze for the sales race with me. It looks home for all money when 22-1 chance Diligently comes out of the pack from nowhere to nab him on the line. He throws a grand at me with the line "hope it chokes you" afterwards. He's taken defeat well, clearly.

Vicki's on good form with the paddock picks, finding both Thunder Run and Angel Hunter on the afternoon. I tell her she doesn't need me after all. Sadly, she agrees. This partnership might be over before it's even started..!

It's burger and chips at the pub that night and clearly someone's had a word with matey boy upstairs, as he's as quiet as a mouse when he gets back. I sleep better until around 6am when something crashes to the floor in my room. Having left the window slightly open for fresh air, the wind - now gale force - has blown a small ornament that was in the windowsill to the floor. It's absolutely howling outside. I decide to get up and go to York early to use the press room to do some work.

The wind is so bad there's a tree down outside the track, which Highway Maintenance are chopping up into pieces to take away, and the course itself has taken a proper battering, with upturned benches and tables strewn around the place. A couple of the bookmaker joints have gone over too - one has had the leg snapped off, that's going to be hard to fix, and expensive too.

Business is a little better on the day but results are tremendous. There's one bet of note, and it's a good one - one guy wants £5k at 6-4 Asfoora in the Nunthorpe. Let me tell you how good a bet this is to lay - next door but one are 13-8. How he's missed that I've no idea. For all Asfoora isn't beaten far she never looks like winning and we have a good winning day.

Better still, Vicki and I both found Canoodled at 25-1 and it pays for our food that night. Live jazz and Cajun food, it's an amazing place she's dug out. But before we get there, I've a major problem with my phone.

In the press room earlier that day, I managed to spill a bit of tea on it. Not much, and it was soon mopped up. But when we get to Vicki's to get changed for our evening out, my phone - already down to 12% battery - won't charge. It keeps telling me damp has been detected in the charging socket and is making some alarming noises at me. I frantically start giving the phone the hair-dryer treatment but to no avail, it won't charge. I send the wife a message saying I'm turning it off for a while to try and save some battery for later and to call Vicki if there's an emergency. After food I turn the phone back on - I'm down to 3% very quickly, and after dropping Vicki off in town, it dies completely. It's at this point I realise I don't know how to get back to the digs.

I stop and have a think. I just need to find signs for the A64. Once I do that it'll be fine.

I set off, driving blind around York on a Friday night, dodging revellers left, right and centre as I do so. Finally, a sign for the A64 by-pass. I start to relax and keep following the signs. At the same time, an idea strikes me - what if it isn't the phone that's damp, but the charging lead?

I hit the A64 and wind the window down. It's probably a good job there's not much traffic around as I waggle the charging lead around with my right hand in the wind whilst driving (steadily) with the left. I give it five minutes and try charging the phone again. Yes! Success! The battery level starts creeping up. Smug with my victory, I continue driving along until I suddenly see a sign for Scarborough.

Yes, in all the phone-related malarkey I'd managed to go the wrong way up the A64, taking the Scarborough route rather than the Leeds one, which is the direction the digs are in. What should have been a 20-minute journey back has taken well over an hour. I feel a bit of a fool and am glad to reach my bed, later than expected.

Matey upstairs comes back and puts the telly on. I keep telling myself this is the last night I'll ever spend here.

And so to Saturday. The wind has died down, thankfully. There aren't many of us in the press room that morning and with most of the written work done, we have time on our hands. As most of us in there are degenerates (well, some of us) a game of Dog Roulette ensues.

A quick reminder of the basic rules - six of you throw a tenner in the pot, and roll a die. That will be your trap number for the first ten races after 11am - five from Romford, five from Monmore. Three points for a winner and one for second. After ten races it's a dead heat between myself and Ken Pitterson. We agree to a run-off in the next and I win!  A great start to the day. Someone mutters about "money coming to money" but I don't care, I'm a bullseye in front before York even begins!

If the first three days have been modest, then Saturday is much, much better. It's busy from the word go and the day flies by. The £4k bet on Audience stays in the satchel although the usual Saturday problems come with trying to explain what a Rule 4 is to novice punters, with Lake Forest ensuring a 20p in the pound deduction. I'm called a thief, of course. I'll not miss this part of the job. For the last time, racecourses - USE THE BIG SCREEN TO TELL PUNTERS WHAT HAS HAPPENED.

Betfair goes down for the last and it's suddenly like the old days, with back bets flying around the ring. We get a result with old Sir Busker, and it's been another good day. Good week, in fact, and I'm pleased my last week on the firm is a winning one. I pack up, shake hands, get paid, and then it's time to go home.

I've enjoyed my time as a workman and I hope you've enjoyed the tales too. There's more to tell, of course, but I've got to save something for the autobiography...

See you all on a racecourse this autumn.

- DM

 

Racing Pot Pourri

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As regular readers will know I do a lot of research and write regular articles, including for geegeez.co.uk, writes Dave Renham. Sometimes though there are some ideas or questions I want to research but decide against it because there would not be enough ‘meat’ for a whole article. So, today I plan to put that right and will share some of my findings with you. Data has been taken from UK flat (and AW) racing going back to 2017.

Comparing a horses’ current handicap mark with their highest winning mark

In handicap races horses are given weight to carry based on their Official handicap rating (OR), or handicap mark. When horses win a race, the Official Handicapper will reassess their handicap mark and almost always the horse is given a higher rating. This means they will have to carry more weight and/or run in higher grade next time, the idea being the weight will slow the horse down a little.

Hence, I decided to examine the results for horses in handicaps that were running off a higher mark than their highest winning mark, the same mark as their highest winning mark, and those racing off a lower mark than their highest winning OR. Here are the splits:

 

 

This seems to give clear evidence that horses higher in the ratings compared to their highest winning mark win more often and look slightly better value.

Digging a bit deeper into those horses winning off a higher mark than their previous best, the age stats are worth sharing:

 

 

As the table shows, once the horses get to 7 or older their performance level and value drops off markedly. Hence older horses trying to win off a handicap mark higher than their previous ‘best’ should be treated with some caution.

 

Favourites and position in the weights/handicap

Next, I wanted to know whether the weight position within a handicap race makes a difference when the horse starts favourite. We know that higher weighted horses win more often than lower weighted ones, but the market adjusts prices well to compensate.

In the chart below I have split the results for favourites into three weight groups – the top three in the weights, those that were 4th to 6th in the weights, and those that were 7th or worse.

 

I looked first at strike rate:

 

 

As you can see, favourites that were in the top three of the weights have won more often than the other two groups. I had expected this, but I had reckoned on a slightly smaller percentage difference between the higher weighted favs and the rest. However, in terms of value it is the favourites that were lower in the weights that did best:

 

 

Those favourites 7th or lower in the weight position had the highest A/E index at 0.97 and losses to SP were much smaller than the other two groups. In fact, betting the '7th+ position in the weights' group of favourites to BSP would have secured a small profit of £114.93 (ROI +2.1%).

 

Older horses that are favourite for the first time

I wanted to see whether first time favourites aged four or older were good or bad value. For a horse not to have started favourite in any race aged two or three but which did so when four or older, I guessed there would be a relatively modest pool of horses that qualified. That was the case with around 2400 horses earning favouritism for the first time over this period stretching right back to 2017. Here are their combined results:

 

 

These are quite strong figures for any group of favourites. I am not sure what I was expecting but I suppose slightly poorer performance. Indeed, if betting to Betfair SP you would have secured a profit of £69.52 (ROI +2.9%).

It is also worth sharing the results by age as they are probably what one would expect:

 

 

Four and five years that start favourite for the first time ever have been far more successful than horses aged six or older.

 

Horses that wore headgear last time out (LTO) but return to track next time without headgear

In the past I have researched horses that have worn different types of headgear. So what about horses that wore headgear LTO, but had it taken off on their next start? Here are the figures:

 

 

Nothing earth shattering here, but after some further digging, I did discover something that I thought was worth sharing. It is the stats for horses that won LTO in headgear, but then had it removed for their next start. This idea is a little alien to me as I am guessing it is to many – why would you remove the headgear if it clearly has worked LTO? However, it has happened 444 times and of these only 65 managed to repeat the win and you would have lost a whopping 31 pence in the £ if backing them.

 

Horses switching from a Grade 1 track to the all-weather

I had assumed that horses that were racing on the sand who had run last time at one of top tracks would do quite well. I guessed they would possibly be overbet, but by how much?

 

 

As you can see the strike rate is acceptable but when viewed as a whole the returns are poor. These horses do indeed look overbet. However, I have gone further and looked at some of the top trainers to see how their charges have fared. Here are the trainers with the highest win strike rates:

 

 

There are some strong figures here for many trainers – John and Thady Gosden, Saeed bin Suroor and Roger Varian have done especially well with these runners. Also, Hugo Palmer, (Roger and) Harry Charlton and Richard Hughes have very positive stats too.

 

Revisiting Price Movement from Opening Show to SP

In a recent article I examined some data pertaining to price movements between the opening show and the final SP. In the comments a question was raised about trainers who have low career strike rates asking if their horses shorten in price during that 10-minute period before the off will they produce a fair-sized loss to the pound? They were wondering if this could become a possible lay angle? So I took a look.

My database allowed me to check trainers whose overall win strike rate in the past two seasons had been 7% or less – so the lower end of the trainer spectrum in terms of win success. Firstly, I wanted to check what proportion of their runners shortened in price between opening show and SP. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

This pattern was seen in the main article with more horses drifting. Focusing in on those that shortened in price, here are the overall results for all qualifiers:

 

There is a lowish strike rate and relatively poor returns to SP and BSP. Having said that, these runners would have lost you money if you tried to lay them. However, horses that started favourite having been backed late have some ‘lay’ potential. Lay profits quoted below are based on a simple £1 a lay method:

- Favourites, including joints, won 547 from 2059 runners for a BSP loss of 7.43%. If laying all such favourites you would have made a tiny £6 profit. If you restricted it to handicaps, favourites could have been ‘layed’ to a profit of £39.

- Trainers who have not had a winner in the previous two weeks have a poor record with these ‘shorteners’. This is particularly true when the horse has started favourite. There have been 1184 qualifiers of which 24.5% of them won (290 runners). If laying all 1184 runners you would have made a profit of £75.77.

- Favourites priced 2/1 or shorter would have provided a lay profit of £34.98.

- Fillies and mares when favourite have a poor record when their price has shortened. Of the 514 qualifiers 121 won (SR 23.5%) and laying all such runners would have yielded a profit of £59.28.

 

It is always nice to get feedback and questions in the comments section under my articles and it will be interesting to see if this piece sparks any interesting responses.

 

Losing favourites on debut

Horses on debut are an unknown quantity. Yes, we know who the trainer is, we have sire data to look at, the cost as a yearling, future entries, etc. But we are still somewhat in the dark. Horses that lose on debut when favourite are a group of horses I wanted to dig a bit deeper into.

Looking at their second starts after their debut loss, their figures read:

 

 

Despite a fair strike rate losses are still relatively steep at nearly 18p in the £. However, there are a few angles both positive and negative that I’d like to share with you.

1. Horses that were beaten favourite at Ascot on debut have bounced back well on their next start winning 10 of 25 (SR 40%) for a profit of £10.97 (ROI 43.9%).

2. Beaten favs on debut when dropped in class for their second career start have done well. 90 wins from 252 runners (SR 35.7%) for an SP profit of £11.27 (ROI +4.5%). To BSP the figures improve to +£34.42 (ROI +13.7%).

3. If the second start happens to be on an all weather surface, these runners have broken even to SP. To BSP profits stand at £41.56 (ROI +10.5%).

4. Horses that finished second on debut when favourite have been poor investments next time. They have won 33% of the time (111 from 336) but losses were a steep £89.59 (ROI -26.7%). You would have made a profit of £55.65 if laying these runners to BSP instead of backing them.

 

Onto to my final port of call.

 

Horse changing stables

Horses change stables from time to time for a variety of reasons. Maybe the owner has moved location, maybe the performances have been below par and owner wants to try a different trainer and training environment. Occasionally horses switch after racing in sellers or claimers.

Let's therefore look at the first run results when sent to a new trainer. Does any yard do particularly well with new recruits? Here are all the trainers who have had 100 or more qualifiers:

 

 

Archie Watson’s figures are superb while Kevin Phillipart de Foy's and Mick Appleby’s stats are also extremely decent. Keep an eye out for Hollie Doyle riding one of Watson’s new recruits. When she takes the ride, their combined record is outstanding – 17 wins from 48 (SR 35.4%) for a profit of £66.51 (ROI +138.6%).

Mick Appleby has done well with a small group of 2yo new recruits winning 8 from 28 (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £37.71 (ROI +134.7%). He has also done well with runners over shorter distances. Sticking to 5f to 1-mile races only his record with new recruits reads 54 wins from 261 (SR 20.7%) for a healthy SP profit of £76.25 (ROI +29.2%).

 

So, there you have it. Hopefully there has been a bit for everyone here. There are certainly a few worthwhile takeaways for backers and layers alike.

- DR

Monday Musings: Of Lazarus, and the Rogues

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York is my idea of a holiday, writes Tony Stafford. Four days of wonderful racing, dinner in excellent restaurants peopled by friends from the racing world, and accommodation – or rather – home from home, at the elegant town house of Mary and Jim Cannon, midway between the station and the racecourse – not bad eh!

From City Of Troy on the opening day – dry coat after the Juddmonte, unlike sweaty at Sandown, his hardest race by my inexact barometer – to the facile Ebor win of Magical Zoe on Saturday, events flowed into each other. The four days provided a melange of thoughts as I drove home down the A1. The reverie was soon expunged when the diversion took us across to the M1 – in all an extra 48 miles on the journey and around an hour on the time.

But back home, checking the later results, after leaving before the last, I was thrilled that having wished William Knight luck as he arrived with one of his owners just after midday, I saw that he had provided the last-race exacta. His old-timer Sir Busker (12/1), a Group 2 winner on the track two years ago and the stable star for longer than that, beat Dual Identity.

There were two winners on the day, the other being Tom Clover’s Melrose Stakes hero Tabletalk, also at 12/1, that nicely rounded up a great spell for both trainers, and a situation that earlier in the year you would never have thought possible.

William Knight endured a horrific 2023. He’d kicked off with three UK wins by February 8, and went off to Dubai with stable star Sir Busker hoping to get some of the big money on offer. You could predict that maybe the kickback on the dirt track there might prove troublesome. In the case of Sir Busker, it was a piece of turf propelled in his direction that went into an eye, causing serious injury.

He needed an operation straight after and then to convalesce for several months before he could be brought back. William did well to get him ready to run in the autumn and in an upside-down season kept him going through the winter, picking up some place money at Newcastle around the turn of the year.

Then came his “winter break” – April to August – when he returned to Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago, a lovely day out for the Kennet Valley Syndicate that had already collected more than half a million pounds for his career exertions.

But to return to 2023 and the aftermath of Dubai. Knight had three early all-weather wins on the board, but from February 8 to September 12 last year, 171 days, he won just three further races – two in June and one in July.

“I did nothing different to always, but we just couldn’t get going. Thank God we had that little flurry at the end of the year,” he said.

A further ten wins came from September 6 to December 18, a Lazarus-type return from the dead as far as the racing community was concerned, and just in time to have a little confidence going into the yearling sales season.

One of the late winners was the filly Frost At Dawn and after her easy win at Chelmsford in early November, William took the calculated risk of sending her to Dubai – not least with the memory of Sir Busker still fresh in his mind.

But owner Abdulla Al Mansoori’s acceptance of the plan paid handsome dividends. On the fifth of her six runs at Meydan, she out-sprinted the Godolphin odds-on shot Star Of Mystery in the Nad Al Sheba Sprint. Dreams of a win in the £600k-plus championship on Dubai World Cup night did not materialise, but the grey filly had done everyone proud.

Project forward to the 2024 season. As we’ve indicated above, Knight had won only three races in the more than five months of last summer, the seventh win of the year coming on September2.

This year, following Frost At Dawn in March, Knight has won 28 races; one in April, four in May, ten in June, eight in July and with Sir Busker on Saturday, another five in August.

Almost all have come from handicaps – “At least when they run as badly as ours did last year, the handicap marks have to drop.” True enough, but horses like Atlantic Gamble, off a mark of 79 at Kempton winning for the fifth time this season having started the run on 56; and Blenheim Star, three wins starting from 51, is rated 69 with the prospect of more to come.

Always approachable, he can also point with satisfaction to Saturday’s opening race third with the recently gelded Checkandchallenge. A 33/1 shot, he looked the likely winner until a little ring-rustiness allowed a couple of horses to pass him.

If William Knight’s good form has been heartening for me, I’m also chuffed that the Tom Clover stable seems to have ridden out the unexpected (at least to me) of the Rogues Gallery horses.

Tom and wife Jackie brought that syndicate’s Rogue Millennium, a daughter of Dubawi, from a 35k 2yo buy to a £1.6 million guineas sale, in the meantime collecting a couple of stakes races and running well at the top level. Rogue Lightning won valuable handicap sprints, turning an 80k breeze-up acquisition into a £1 million sale to Wathnan Racing, who have kept him with Clover.

Then in the spring came news of a parting of the ways, The Rogue apparently becoming uneasy about another syndicate muscling in on their territory, or that’s how it read at the time.

No sooner had the 2024 Horses in Training book come out in March/April than the 16 horses listed under the Rogues Gallery had been dispersed far and wide – well all around Newmarket anyway. Talk about gratitude. I’ve no idea if Tony Elliott bought the two stars on his own judgment or that of Tom Clover, but I immediately got the dead needle to their horses.

The Thursday before York, I went to Chelmsford and the flashy red vehicle emblazoned with Rogues stuff was parked next to me. If I had been a little more mobile or less conspicuous, I might even have let the tyres down!

Mr Elliott might well be a great bloke and his syndicates do well and are endorsed by a couple of influential figures, but I was delighted when their Rogue Invader finished a place and two lengths behind Fire Flame, albeit himself a beaten favourite, the horse I was there to watch.

On Friday at York, the Clovers ran recent arrival Al Nayyir in the Lonsdale Cup and if he had had another ten yards to travel he would have beaten Vauban rather than lose by a short head. The six-year-old will be one to watch out for in any long-distance race from now on.

They had a winner elsewhere that day and another at Goodwood on Saturday, but the main event came in the Melrose Handicap, now much stronger as the three-year-olds are excluded from the Ebor, which follows later in the card.

Their lightly-raced Tabletalk came through strongly to win comfortably, beating Coolmore’s The Equator, in a faster time than Magical Zoe took to win the Ebor. He can go a long way as can Tom and Jackie, who have matched last year’s tally of 22, even without the rogue element.

Tabletalk was an appropriate winner that I suggested in response to a request for “a winner” from the three lovely Scottish ladies on my table on Saturday. Once something like that wins, you become fair game for the rest of the day. Nice though.

On Wednesday evening in the inevitable Italian restaurant Del Rio, Irish photographer Pat Healy posed the question “Vincent or Aidan?” a conundrum that could never be adequately resolved. That brought the conversation around to the late Gerry Gallagher, Vincent’s long-term traveling head lad.

One year, Vincent, to Pat’s recollection, had five winners at Goodwood and a couple more on his way back home from there and Gerry backed them all.

When he returned to Ballydoyle, he told Vincent that he’d made a nice pot of money and wondered whether he could buy a bit of land there on which to construct a house.

Vincent asked where he had in mind. Gerry said: “There’s a rough patch of land just to the right of the entrance.” Vincent said to leave it with him and after a couple of days called Gerry in and said yes, he could buy it.

Gerry realised it might not have been the greatest idea to tell the trainer how much he’d won, but anyway asked what he wanted. Vincent took a breath and said: “One pound.” The house was duly built and Gerry and his family lived there for the rest of his life.

Two days later, I was sitting down to lunch when Polly Murphy, the lady who always comes to greet visitors to Ballydoyle and takes them to wherever they need to go, sat down next to me.

I told her the story and asked her if it was true, as it was such a heart-warming incident. Polly said: “Do you see the lady sitting at the table behind us, ask her, she’s Gerry’s daughter Trish.” “It is, and while I’m married now, my brother still lives there,” said Trish.  Small world.

-        TS

Non-handicap juveniles in late turf season

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Blink and you’ve missed it. Yes, the British summer is coming to an end, and horse racing is soon to be heading into the last two full months of the turf season, writes Dave Renham. In this article my focus is from the start of September to the end of the turf flat season which is about a week into November. I want to concentrate on two-year-old (2yo) turf non-handicaps in the UK during this time frame. Data has been collected from 2015 to 2023 with profits/losses quoted to Industry Starting Price. Betfair SP figures will be quoted if appropriate.

Some of the larger stables send their better 2yos out at this time of the year so the trainer findings should be interesting. However, let's begin with the betting market.

Betting Markets

For this section I have combined ‘joints’ so for example the favourite includes clear favs, joint and co favs, etc. I want to start by looking at the value metric of A/E indices – here are my findings:

 

 

Favourites tend to offer more value than punters realise, but the gap between favourites and second favourites in this juvenile non-handicap context is much bigger than we usually see. Taking such runners across all months over the last nine seasons the A/E index for favs is 0.92 and second favs is 0.88. The gap between the two is more than twice this in the latter months of the sample years, as you can see in the graph (0.94 v 0.84).

Let me compare the returns to SP and the strike rates now:

 

 

Favourites have been winning close to 40% of the time and have been twice as successful as second favourites in terms of strike rate. Losses to SP have seen favourites lose only 6.7% compared with second favourites 17.3%, showing strong correlation to the earlier A/E index chart. To Betfair SP favourites would have lost you only 3.5p for every £1 bet and in three of the nine years they would have made a profit. Once we get to fifth or bigger in the betting the winning chances become very low indeed, and they offer horrendous value.

Sticking with favourites here are some additional stats to share:

1. Favourites starting at less than 1.50 have won 80.2% of the time (77 wins from 96) for a profit of £5.07 (ROI +5.3%).

2. Female favourites have broken even to BSP.

3. There are not many 2yo races that are longer than a mile, but when the distance hits 1-mile ½ furlong or more, favourites have won 76 of their 181 starts (SR 42%) for a small profit to SP to £7.10 (ROI +3.9%). To BSP after commission you would have had another 59p in your pocket on top of that!

4.  Favourites at this time of the year who are unraced or have had just one previous career run have provided the worst value. This group have provided 910 qualifiers of which 323 won (SR 35.5%) and backing all would have seen losses to SP of £117.03 (ROI -12.9%). To BSP losses are still edging to 10%.

5. In Class 1 or 2 races favourites have almost broken even to SP losing just 1p in the £ and turning a small profit to BSP.

 

Position Last Time Out (LTO)

Onto a look at the most recent piece of form based on finishing position.

 

 

Perhaps the takeaway stat is for last time runners-up. They have the strongest figures across the board. In terms of A/E indices, the best value may lie with LTO 2nds, 3rds and 4ths. It looks best to avoid horses that finished fifth or worse LTO and also debutants (the ‘no run’ group). LTO winners have a relatively modest record, too, and don’t look a solid play in the round.

 

Female runners

I want to briefly share some interesting filly (female) data. Earlier it was noted that female horses when favourite have performed well. Now I want to look at these runners as a whole group, and specifically their record when running against their own sex as compared to when running against the ‘boys’. Here are the splits:

 

 

There is a clear pattern here where female runners fare better when racing against their own sex. They have a much-improved strike rate in these races and, more importantly, losses are 16p in the £ better to both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

If we look at mixed sex races in a bit more detail, we can see that the higher percentage of male rivals there are, the harder it becomes for the females. The graph below shows the win strike rate across different percentage bands of male runners:

 

 

Once we hit over 75% of the runners in the race being male, the chance for any female runner becomes very slim in terms of winning. If we now look at the return on investment figures now, we can see that once more than half of the runners are male, females would have lost you a considerable amount of money:

 

 

So, the data is clear when it comes to considering female runners in 2yo non-handicaps on the turf at this time of year: generally stick to races against their own sex, or if considering a wager in a mixed sex race make sure that most runners in the race are female.

 

Trainers

Onto the area of greatest interest to me trainers. Here are the top performing trainers in terms of strike rate – 20 in total. To qualify they must have had at least 100 runners (ordered by win strike rate):

 

 

It is quite surprising to see nine of the twenty with a profit to industry SP, and a further two (Beckett and Varian) hitting a plus to BSP. Charlie Appleby has the best strike rate but has offered punters quite poor value. Saeed bin Suroor stats should be treated with caution as since 2020 he has had only 19 runners.

I thought it would be interesting to compare the records of these trainers with that of their earlier season form, i.e. their 2yo turf non-handicap record between March and August. I have created a table comparing A/E indices and strike rates over the two monthly groupings:

 

 

I should mention average field sizes are notably larger later in the season (9.5 v 8.7) which means we should expect lower strike rates in the Sept-Nov group. However, that factor is the same for all trainers so each individual handler comparison is fair.

Looking at the table, the numbers for two of the trainers have inspired me to do a deeper dive on each. Firstly, the Gosden stable. Their A/E index is much better from September onwards as is their strike rate (despite the bigger fields). Hence, after doing some digging here are strongest stats for the Clarehaven Stables yard:

1. There are three courses that stand out. Firstly Newmarket, despite the quality of 2yos on show at this time of the year. Team Gosden has saddled an impressive 35 winners from 177 runners (SR 19.8%) for a profit of £10.35 (ROI +5.9%) – A/E 1.07. Newbury has provided excellent results, too, returning over 26p in the £ from an impressive 29.6% strike rate (13 from 44). Yarmouth is the third track to mention with 13 wins from 50 (SR 26%) for a profit of £19.46 (ROI +38.9%). The BSP returns have naturally been even better.

2. Both male and female runners from the stable have proved profitable to back blind and their strike rates have been virtually the same at 22.7% and 22.3%.

3. Sticking with gender and looking now at the ‘sex of race’, the Gosden stable has done especially well when their horses stick to same sex races as the table below shows.

 

 

Based on these figures, I would be ideally looking for same sex races if wanting to back a Gosden runner.

4. The team is 9 from 17 in Group 2 races. A small sample, but worth sharing.

 

Onto the second trainer I want to highlight - Ralph Beckett. Let’s share some Autumn 2yo turf non handicap stats:

1. Take note of any Beckett favourite, the stats are eye-watering – 45 wins from just 87 favs (SR 51.7%) for a profit of £35.51 (ROI +40.8%). The A/E index stands at a crazy 1.33.

2. If the yard has sent the 2yo over 200 miles that looks material. There have been 83 such runners of which 29 won (SR 34.9%) for a profit of £18.38 (ROI +22.1%). For the record Beckett is 6 from 10 at Pontefract, and 5 from 11 at York.

3. Female runners from the Beckett barn have been the stars scoring over 21% of the time. In fillies’ only contests they have returned 8.5p in the £ to SP, 20p in the £ to BSP.

4. Take serious note if the money seems to be coming for their runners. Horses that have started at a shorter SP compared to the Early Morning Odds have produced superb figures – 62 winners from 214 runners (SR 29%) for a healthy profit of £83.34 (ROI +38.9%). To BSP this increase to +£114.75 (ROI +53.6%).

 

The latter months of the season can be a challenge for punters especially with the weather becoming less predictable; two-year-old races especially can seem a minefield. However, the findings in this piece should help to point us in the right direction.

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Small Steps

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After Simmering won the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes day late last month, Ben Sangster urged caution concerning his son Ollie’s burgeoning training career, writes Tony Stafford.

"Small steps," he maintained, after the filly in which, until just before that day, wife Lucy had been a partner with Justin Casse and Dr J Berk, came from a fair way back to get up close home.

Ryan Moore was on board the filly as she cemented the promise of her second spot behind the Moore-ridden Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes at the Royal meeting.

Ryan was otherwise engaged on his day job at the Curragh on Saturday, so Dylan Browne McMonagle sat in and Simmering, up a furlong as her run style had suggested it would, suited her to the extent of a three-length victory in the Group 2 Prix de Calvados at Deauville.

While the French are not always fast out of the blocks with two-year-old racing, perennial leading trainer (if M. Fabre doesn’t intervene) Jean-Claude Rouget isn’t quite so reticent. On the weekend of the big August sale at Arqana in Deauville, Rouget supplied an unbeaten-in-four filly, Fraise Des Bois, running in the colours of Prince Faisal bin Salman’s Denford Stud.

A triple winner at the provincial course at Tarbes in Southwestern France, an entire region where Rouget dominates affairs, the €75k daughter of Zelzal went on to a wide-margin win when stepped up to Listed class at Marseille Borely.

Inevitably on Saturday she shared the market with the UK challenger who, coincidentally, also cost 75k as a yearling, but in real money as we used to call it!

Both fillies were moving up to seven furlongs for the first time and Simmering duly took the race apart after going ahead before the last 200 metres. McMonagle said afterwards he thought he probably went too soon, but there was no sign of weakness as Simmering strode up to and across the line.

You’d think the Moyglare – where she might renew rivalry with Fairy Godmother - would be an obvious target, but further down the line Ollie has the Breeders’ Cup in mind for this fast-improving filly.

Small steps – from Group 3 to Group 2 – seems to follow dad’s coda, but this win could hardly have been timed better. It came between the first two select evenings of the big August Arqana sale on the track’s doorstep.

Running in the colours of Al Shaqab, Ollie had already pulled one rabbit out of the hat by winning the Ascot race for them - they are closely involved in Qipco, a main sponsor of the Royal track – and now showed his worth again at the perfect moment.

Five horses were knocked down to Al Shaqab at the smallish Saturday night portion of the sale, so who would be the first to enter their thoughts having seen off a highly regarded home runner than the short-stepping Ollie?

Sorry Ben, this is a young man with a long, languid stride who is going all the way to the top. As George Boughey has shown, this sort of momentum can be hard to stop if the clients and the talent are there.

The history does stack up. Grandson of Robert, the man who, with John Magnier and Vincent O’Brien, rewrote racing history in the last quarter of the 20th Century. Since Robert’s death, sons Ben, backed by Guy, and in Australia another brother, Adam who ran the southern hemisphere end of Swettenham Stud, provided the ideal introduction to the family business.

Of course, Ollie’s uncle Sam, another of Robert's sons but not much older than Ollie, has been flourishing with his syndicates with Brian Meehan who, like Ollie, trains at Manton.

Stints working with Wesley Ward, both for a time in the US, but for years as his rep on this side of the Atlantic, could not have been a hindrance to his handling of juveniles. Also, his riding career was not to be discounted either. He won four races just over a decade ago for the late Alan Swinbank.

On Lothair at Carlisle in August 2013, he scored with a very professional ride – it was a race for inexperienced amateurs – but 50 yards after passing the post, he came off his mount. Refusing to drop the rein, he held on for at least another 100 yards, until the horse agreed to stop. While the unwritten rule is to let go, Ollie’s guts, horsemanship, strength and a determination not to give up already characterised him from that early point. No wonder Wesley trusted him to pony his horses to the start at Ascot.

It helped before starting his training career last year that a filly he shared (ten per cent) with mum Lucy and James Wigan, bought as a foal four years earlier for 55k, sold at the 2022 December sale for 3.6million gns. The filly was Saffron Beach, a multiple Group 1 winner trained by his aunt Jane Chapple-Hyam. “I was in her from the start,” Ollie avers.

When speaking to Ben after the Princess Margaret, I referred to what he’d mentioned earlier in the year, his dream that Ollie might one day transfer from the Red Post yard into the historic original main yard around Manton House itself where he grew up. “I’d love that”, said Ben. This could be a case of the irresistible force happening sooner than either of them anticipated.

**

When you reach my time of life, you can expect sad news coming around every corner. On Friday, unfortunately, I had a double helping. First my friend Malcolm Caine asked if I’d heard that David Myers had died. I hadn’t. A very clever owner/punter in the 1980’s with the equally clever if rather grumpy Epsom handler Mick Haynes, he’d developed kidney problems at a relatively young age and was on dialysis for many years.

He recently went into hospital for a leg operation and never regained consciousness. Such was his standing within the world of charities that he and his wife were invited to King Charles III’s coronation.

Then later that day an even more awful moment came when I heard from Sir Rupert Mackeson that Howard Wright had died, aged 79. Howard had a deserved tall reputation as a journalist with the Racing Post for many years as the many commendations about him have shown over the past few days.

I must add my own involvement in his story. When I took on a part-time job as Editor of The Racehorse weekly publication in the autumn of 1974, my first headline (unaccredited) was to tip the 25/1 Cesarewitch winner Ocean King, ridden by Tommy Carter and trained by Arthur Pitt, Alan Spence’s first trainer in Epsom.

Peter O’Sullevan was moved to send a letter of congratulation – to Roger Jackson, the greyhound man whose byline was prominently displayed! We did have a laugh about it a few times later as Peter and I knew each other rather better.

Tne Racehorse job involved working early Monday and Tuesday mornings, then off to the Daily Telegraph for late shifts. The need arose as I was paying back a debt to a Mr Lippman and needed the extra. Wednesday was print day, so I had to take my Telegraph day off and also worked Saturdays subbing the sports results for the Sunday Telegraph – thus a full seven-day week, but more like eight days a week really!

The Racehorse had a great team of writers, such as Roger Mortimer, T E Watson (Diary of a private handicapper) and, from the younger generation, Walter Glynn, Alan Amies and Howard Wright, who was assistant sports editor at the Sheffield Morning Telegraph, where I’m pretty sure as Fortunatus he won the Sporting Life naps table.

I never needed to speak to him. His copy came down each week, perfectly presented and never needing any correction. Then, when in 1979 I was appointed Racing Editor at the DT, I requested as my deputy someone from outside – Howard.

The bosses agreed, and happily, so did he. Some people in authority like to have yes men behind them and Howard was anything but that. When you had a day or a week off, you knew the job would be done properly – in all honesty with less of the flying by the shirttails of his boss.

It was no surprise (if rather annoying) when Howard was offered the chance to join the newly-instituted Racing Post in a senior role – one which he held for many years, specialising on the administration end of racing. His death after a short illness was so unexpected.

Will Lefebve, who started at the Press Association in 1969 one week before I did and remains a regular on the course on the big days, said he was with Howard negotiating the sale of some (by Will) historic racecards to Howard when he said he didn’t feel great.

We weren’t ever close, apart from the period of working together, but another friend Jeffrey Curry remembered a day at Kempton earlier this year when the three of us talked for some time in the owners’ room. Jeffrey (or Curly as he’s better known), said: “You’d have thought you were best mates!”

He took the steadfast accuracy of his working life to his family, with wife Anne and their two daughters. When someone dies, you can express your regrets, sympathise and move on. This one keeps coming back, even as I finish this totally inadequate memoire.

- TS

Price Movement from Opening Show

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In my previous article - which can be read here - I looked at favourites and specifically their Early Morning Odds compared to their Starting Price, writes Dave Renham. In this piece I am drilling into patterns of price movement from opening show to SP. This considers all runners, not just favourites. Data has been taken from the three full years from 2021 to 2023 for UK flat and all-weather racing and I have used William Hill bookmaker data.

The opening show for most races occurs around 10-15 minutes before the race is due to start. Each horse will have its opening price and then, as money is bet during the time before the race starts, the prices will fluctuate. Here are two randomly selected examples from Friday 26th July showing how prices can move. The first race was the 3.00 at Ascot which was a 10-runner handicap over seven furlongs. The prices in red were the opening show odds, and the table shows how the odds changed (moving from left to right).

 

 

In that race, four horses lengthened in price from opening show to SP, five shortened in price, and one stayed the same. The winner, Billy Mill, drifted from an opening show of 9.0 (8/1) to a final SP of 13.0 (12/1). The second race was earlier on the same day at Thirsk at 2.00. This was a 9-runner Novice contest also over 7f:

 

 

The market looks less lively than the Ascot one and this time five horses lengthened in price, two shortened, while two remained the same. Angel Express remained the same price (17.0) for the whole time, while the winner Ryka drifted slightly from an opening price of 4.0 (3/1) to an SP of 4.33 (100/30). The favourite, Tutu Star, was a positive in the market and shortened a point from 5.0 (4/1) to 4.0 (3/1) but finished only sixth.

 

It is time now to look at ALL runners over this three-year period to see what percentage shortened in price, lengthened/drifted in price, or stayed the same price when comparing their opening show to their final Starting Price odds. Here are the findings:

 

 

As can be seen, nearly half of the runners drifted or lengthened in price. I am not surprised by this as traditionally bookmakers used to give themselves a bigger margin when publishing their opening show. I am not sure whether the increasing influence of Betfair has impacted this dynamic, as I do not have data pre-Betfair. Let me now share the turf flat versus all-weather price change percentages before moving on:

 

 

These figures indicate that on the sand a slightly higher proportion of runners drift in price from opening show to SP when compared to the turf flat. I am not sure why this is the case, possibly due to risk aversion related to a higher number of lower grade races, but it is a stat worth taking note of. I did look at the individual course breakdown and in general the figures were similar. However, Ascot was slightly out of kilter with the percentage of horses that drifted/lengthened in price, at 41.6%. It is also interesting to note that the five courses with the lowest ‘drift’ percentages were Grade 1 courses – Ascot, Epsom, Goodwood, Newmarket and York. Perhaps the better courses have more accurate - or confident - opening shows? That would make sense given the generally larger volumes of turnover on the early prices (i.e. before the opening show).

 

Market movement during this short period before the start of arace is a good indicator of ‘chance of winning’ as the graph below shows when we examine the win strike rates of the three groups:

 

 

Although horses that shorten in price win more often, if we look at Betfair SP returns it is the ‘stayed the same’ group that have edged it by a couple of pence in the £. They have lost 4p in the £, those that shortened have lost 6p and the drifters lost 7p. It always amazes me how efficient a racing betting market is.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph those runners whose price lengthened or drifted have lost 7p in the £. However, if we restrict drifters to those whose opening odds were 7.0 (6/1) or less we get the following figures:

 

 

This is getting close to breaking even – losses of just 1.5 pence for every £1 bet. Using the same price considerations for horses that have shortened in price they won more often (25% of the time) but losses were still over 5p in the £.

Going back to drifters, when their opening show is 15.0 (14/1) or bigger, they have produced much greater losses at more than 11p in the £. Hence, all things being considered, horses that go out in price from an opening show of 7.0 (6/1) or less have offered the best value.

My focus now is to look at price movement from opening show to SP within different price bands. The figures are split by percentage of qualifying runners:

 

 

These price bands are based on big sample sizes so we can be confident that the general principles will be replicated in future. Possibly the most eye-catching numbers are those for bigger priced runners. Once we get to an opening show of 18/1 or more, over 50% of these runners will drift in price. There also seems to be difference to the overall ‘norm’ when it comes to those priced up between 100/30 to 13/2. The percentages between shorteners and drifters are close to parity. To see this more clearly let me graph the comparison:

 

 

The graph clearly shows this ‘close to parity’ situation with the 100/30 to 13/2 opening odds price bands. Either side of that, drifters occur more frequently than shorteners and in many cases the difference is significant. For punters this type of information should be really useful – having the overall stats gave us a good ‘feel’ but breaking it down into price bands has given us much more knowledge and understanding of how certain prices may change in that pre-race period.

Now of course, a good proportion of punters back horses on the exchanges rather than with traditional bookmakers. However, if you are still someone who bets with the bookies the info shared should help your decision making about when to place your bet. This is especially true if you tend to bet close to the ‘off’ and/or at Starting Price. Even if you only bet on the Exchanges, the price movements for traditional odds and Exchange odds tend to mirror each other, so this data should serve either way and help to inform your timing of bets. The best strategy for placing a bet at most price points seems to be to wait for SP / BSP because your horse is more likely to drift late on. With instances of opening show odds of between 100/30 and 13/2 though, it is far less clear-cut in terms of the best time to place that bet.

The last area I want to take a quick look at is trainers. I thought it may be a good idea to group the data for the top five trainers in terms of win strike rate over this three-year period. The qualifying trainers are Charlie Appleby, John and Thady Gosden, William Haggas, Saeed bin Suroor and Roger Varian. Firstly a look at the splits in terms of what percentage of these trainers’ runners have shortened in price, lengthened in price, or stayed the same price when comparing their opening show to their final Starting Price odds.

 

 

These combined figures see a difference in percentages between the two main groups of just 7%, compared with a 15%+ difference in the 'all trainers/runners' graph earlier in the piece. Logic suggests that this would have been the case – runners for more successful trainers are likely to be ‘stronger’ in the market than the norm. But it is good to see it in black and white (or green and orange!)

What is even more interesting is when we combine the results of these five trainers. Here are the findings:

 

 

Horses that have been strong in the market for these five trainers have combined to produce a fair profit. Indeed, four of the five trainers made an individual profit with their runners that shortened in price from opening show to SP – the Gosden stable was the only one to make a loss.

To conclude, understanding how a betting market may evolve from opening show to SP is an area that is rarely analysed. I have found it enlightening doing the research and some of the findings in this article should provide punters, as well as myself, with a better feel of how a market may develop on the show.

- DR

Monday Musings: Fours, and All Sorts

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With more than a week to go before the next big thing, York’s Ebor meeting, It may be a suitable time for a little quantity over quality, writes Tony Stafford. For Iain Jardine, whose week had brought a tragic note with the passing of his barn manager John McPherson, 54, found on Thursday morning after dying in his sleep, it ended on a much happier note.

Runners from the Jardine yard took the 70 miles or so ride up the west coast of Scotland from the Borders to Ayr and clocked up four consecutive winners. Not the least surprising were the prices and that there were three tight photo-finishes.

Jardine kicked off with 7/2 shot Parisiac by a head; followed with the only clear scorer, 16/1 outsider Can’t Stop Now; with Giselles Issy (12/1) completing the hat-trick by a neck. The four-timer, amounting to 5,468/1, was completed with another head finish by 9/2 Jonny Concrete. This is one achievement that will indeed be set in stone.

That brought Jardine to 40 wins for the season, more than two-thirds of the way to his career-best of 58 in an always upwardly mobile career which began only in 2011.

Jardine’s was not the only Saturday four-timer, but in the case of championship-leading Oisin Murphy, his quartet at Newmarket illustrated why he is unbackable to win a fourth career title.

Winners count towards the jockeys’ title only from May 4, the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. In 98 days therefore, Oisin has already passed 100 (101) and can add (but nobody bothers about that) 46 clocked up in the first four months of the campaign.

That puts him a mere 122 behind the record of Gordon Richards (later Sir) set in 1947 when the sport was just getting going after the Second World War and Richards had the benefit of compliant starters under the old gate start. They always made sure Gordon was ready!

Unlike in Gordon’s day, getting to the races has been eased by motorway travel and, for the top boys, small planes or helicopters to get the likes of Ryan Moore, William Buick and no doubt Murphy home safe and quickly.

At the same time, the ruling that stopped double meetings might have reduced the potential for racking up the wins in the summer when the fields tend to thin out.

That’s all well and good, but rather than stick around to mop up the all-weather opportunities after November 4 when the flat season ends at Doncaster, the named trio will be off far and wide in search of the riches available in those countries. That's in contrast to the UK, racing here held in thrall by the bookmakers and racecourses whose strangling effect has been evident by yet another Levy shortfall and the missing millions from media rights payments that never find their way to a race purse.

But I wonder. Those riches will still be available after the turn of the year to Murphy, who is already virtually assured of a fourth title to go with the three he collected from 2019 to 2021 before his ban. He’s 36 clear of Rossa Ryan who also continues to thrive despite last year’s break up from the poisoned chalice that is retained rider for Amo Racing. Maybe David Egan and his calm personality can outlive the previous incumbents in that position.

No, I would like to see Oisin stay for the winter. There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner in the UK since Nijinsky in 1970. How sweet would it be for Oisin to exceed Sir Gordon's 269 and break a record set the year after I was born. Blimey, when you think of it like that!

So, say he stays, just taking four days off for the Breeders’ Cup and one or two more for overseas spectaculars like Irish Champions' Weekend. Then he would only need to maintain the present rate of progress to collect the 123 wins he needs.

Somebody should step in to sponsor it – no doubt a bookie like Fred Done (Betfred) or Bet Victor – and publicise it with a daily update on his progress towards this record which has seemed an impossibility for much of the time since Lester Piggott was the successor to Richards.

*

Racing In South Africa might have been regarded as a backwater for a long time but efforts to redevelop it and the removal of the ban on importing horses from South Africa to Europe has given it a massive shot in the arm in the season which ended last month.

I keep in touch via a regular look at the well-regarded five times weekly Turf Talk newsletter and was able to tell William Knight before his horse Holkham Bay won at Ascot on Saturday that his South African lady jockey Rachel Venniker was very talented.

The last few months, until season's end, Turf Talk had a daily Richard Fourie barometer as the leading jockey approached and then galloped past the previous record of 335 wins in a season on June 8. He eased off a shade but still stretched to 377 by the end of last month.

Looking at his stats on the At the Races site, Oisin Murphy’s strike-rate looks almost pedestrian. Fourie over the past 12 months has won 276 races on turf and another 106 on all-weather surfaces, so in all 382 – 115 better than Gordon’s best.

Just why nobody has thought to recruit rampant Richard for a spell riding over here, I don’t know. He wouldn’t be the first South African rider to do well, Michael (Muis) Roberts won our title in 1992 and is now a successful trainer back home. I’ve told the tale before, but Roberts and I shared flights travelling to, I think, three tracks in one day.

Getting off the small plane to go to Leicester, he nimbly stepped out. By the time I’d followed him, Neil, the pilot was already on the move, and the rear fin knocked me over with a right bang. The bruise was there as evidence for a good few days!

Returning to Fourie, it's probably more likely that he could become another South African to test his skills in Hong Kong.

*

The phrase plus ca change, plus la meme chose [roughly, 'the more things change, the more they stay the same'] doesn’t seem to apply to life in the mid-2020s. Long-held ideas on behaviour and respect seem to have gone out the window in the UK and last week's riots came as a shock to everyone that had been expecting something much more likely to ruin Paris’s Olympic Games.

They, though, have gone along famously well and the home crowds have shown that there is a place for patriotic support without its boiling over into violence.

For the regulars in the Newmarket owners’ room, last Saturday was a very sad occasion and one where change will certainly not be la meme chose, but very different. We (I’ve plenty of friends who get me owner’s badges) who regularly attend have marvelled at the ultra-professional Lynda Burton as she runs the lunchroom with welcoming efficiency, never seeming to get slower than a fast canter as she attends to the inevitable issues that crop up.

In times when catering staff can be at either end of the acceptable spectrum, she has gathered some excellent colleagues, so it was a shock to hear that owing to an “unpleasantness”, as she described it, Lynda had decided to resign forthwith.

I’ve known her for 15 years from when she was running the Goodwood owners’ room, before she transferred to Newmarket. It has been very demanding, travelling so often from her home in the West Country and now, with a grandchild and as her husband has retired, Lynda is reserving her considerable energies for closer to home.

Judging by the bouquets of flowers and other examples of gratitude for the past years’ efforts, I’m clearly not the only one to rue her departure. Her shoes will not be easy to fill. Good luck Newmarket!

At Goodwood I had a great reunion with a friend who around two decades ago asked me if I would introduce him to Sir Henry Cecil. Gerhard Schoeningh, a German based in London where he worked in finance, wished to ask Henry whether he would be prepared to train his home-bred horses, mostly stayers.

Among the best he sent to the master trainer were Brisk Breeze and Templestern, but he says that when Henry died, he failed to find another trainer to suit him. Instead, he bought a racecourse, Hoppegarten in Berlin, and over time he has lovingly improved and restored it.

I asked how it’s gone. He said: “It’s getting better and better every year. This year, I hope we can break even!”

Yesterday, he staged his most valuable and important race, the €100k to the winner 134th running of the Grosser Preis von Berlin (Group 1). He was still trying to recruit supplementary entries for the race at the time and his negotiations with Joseph O’Brien bore fruit with Al Riffa, the excellent runner-up to City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park last month, lining up.

Ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle, Al Riffa started the 3/5 favourite and won by five lengths. Gerhart has asked me to try to come over either in October or next spring. I’ve never been to Germany, but you know, I might take him up on it.

- TS

2024/25 Footy Season Preview

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An annual tradition on geegeez.co.uk is my singular public foray into the football betting markets. Singular for good reason: I'm no better guesser than the next person, assuming that person has a keen interest in kickball and likes data but doesn't tend to rummage too deeply due to other commitments. Caveat emptor from the get go, friend!

Allow me to illustrate and underscore that 'buyer beware' opening gambit with a quick review of last season's suggestions...

2023/24 Season Review

It was a promotion perm trixie based around:

Championship: Middlesbrough

League One: Portsmouth / Blackpool

League Two: Notts County / MK Dons

Boro started like relegation favourites, got loads of injuries, and finished with a sectional upgrade in 8th, two spots outside the playoffs (in which they'd have had a chance given momentum going into the closing stages of the season).

Portsmouth won L1 easily, by five points and just three shy of the century; but Blackpool were another 8th placed finisher, threatening to get into the mix at various points in the season - notably with a rare late rattle - but it was ultimately not enough to make the knockout phase.

In L2, a trappy section most years, Notts County were abject virtually throughout, barely deserving their 14th spot between those heavyweights Harrogate Town and Morecambe. Meanwhile, MK Dons were the great hope of catching a 'pay for the tickets' double: alas, they could only finish 4th before getting royally tanned in the playoffs.

The full horror can be revisited here, for those of a masochistic bent...

So a second season without a return and this one, while looking promising in terms of some sort of pickup, may not yield sufficiently to pay the entry fee. Of course, there are more optimistic possible outcomes, too, as we'll come on to. And this column has hit some very good returns historically.

2024/25 Preview

To the impending season, and I'm sticking with the promo perm trixie format, this time taking two each in the Champs and L2, and a bold/foolhardy single in the middle division. Championship first...

Championship Promotion

We start off in brilliantly uninspiring fashion with Leeds United. They're around even money to belatedly get the job done and return to top flight footy after last term's near miss. In their most recent three appearances in this section they've been 3rd, 1st and 3rd and, though they've taken good money for good players - Summerville and Gray notably - there is a very strong unit remaining, with both available funds and the option of the Premier League loan market to bolster depth.

This is a deeply unimaginative starter for ten, but should be a definite runner for us.

More speculatively, and with clear scope for throwing good money after bad, I'm rolling with Middlesbrough again. Injuries were, as I've already lamented, a key feature of last season; but with the board persisting with the promising Michael Carrick, and a deadeye striker in Emmanual Latte Lath - plus strong rumours about a second goal threat, Tommy Conway, arriving - allied to a reasonably mean defensive setup, they can go a few places better than a year ago.

Burnley look a bloated squad and, whilst I know what Parker can do in terms of results, he's never going to get the hot seat at Bayern Munchen, which his predecessor has achieved. Put another way, he looks a coaching downgrade for all that there's plenty of talent in that training ground bloat. Sheffield United were just awful last season and very few of their fans are expecting them to contend this time; but Luton should be strong: they didn't splurge when going up and they're very well set to improve on a concrete first team. Barkley's departure - and Osho's - is a blow but they've goals galore from Morris and Adebayo, and that intimate Kenny Road pitch is an asset for them.

Lots of judges are putting up Coventry to be a player, and it's not difficult to see why (if you squint a bit). The big lad up front, Simms, looks dangerous and they've been consistent in their last three goes since coming up from League 1. They just lack a bit of star quality, perhaps, for all that Mark Robins has (again) done a sterling job. He must be one of the most underrated English managers around just now.

League 1 Promotion

Oh God, here we go again. A 'banker' that isn't Birmingham City. The Blues have been hot hot hot in the betting recently, with their owners keen to get them back up at the first attempt. Alfie May is a proven scorer at the level and a top signing but there are other teams who have invested wisely in the striking area. It'll not surprise at all if Birmingham live up to their favourite status, although with a rookie manager and a probable expectation of immediate onfield success, there's scope for a pear-shaped turn before Christmas if they don't bound forward on the front foot. Only one favourite has won the division in the last decade, a stat I'll leave open to your own interpretation!

Instead, I'm rowing in with regular pick in these virtual pages, Bolton. They're almost always there or thereabouts and, as such, offer a great run for the pennies. This season they'll look to build on the promise of the previous campaign which ended in playoff disappointment. In Aaron Collins they have a strong contender for top scorer, and if they can sustain their form after it rather fizzled out in the spring, they must again threaten the promotion places.

Much has been made of the signing of Clarke-Harris by Rotherham, but despite previous striking heroics in the division, he was a bit part actor for Posh in 23/24. The town has been in the news for all the wrong reasons recently but they've a chance for the football club to shine some light on the place: it's certainly the case that they've bounced back from relegation adversity strongly in recent years. Not quite for me, though.

League 2 Promotion

League 2 has the luxury of three automatic promotion spots, and thus playoffs down to 7th, so an extra 'out' for promo players; but in a section where it's 7.5/1 the field, we're going to need it!

First on the L2 list is MK Dons. Another put up a year ago, they went close before not quite being able to match Stockport, Wrexham and Mansfield in the final weeks. Those three were relative powerhouses last term and it looks, as implied by the betting, more open this time around. In that context, and having gone toe to toe with the promoted clubs, MK are well placed to fare slightly better. Manager Mike Williamson will have a full season (and pre-season) having joined a few months into the campaign a year ago, and he's moved to shore up their porous rearguard since May. A pasting in the playoffs will need to be forgotten - not a given - and I'm looking for big things from Milton Keynes.

I'm hoping for big things from Port Vale. The owner apparently sold her business for £200m in the summer and the club has already spent nearly half a million, which is more than the total spend of the last ten seasons! Ex-Bournemouth forward Jayden Stockley is guaranteed goals at this level and they've bagged a well-regarded Brighton junior on loan as well as George Byers from Sheff Wed. Vale finished third in L2 three seasons back and have a stronger side now than then.

The Bet

As mentioned, it's a perm trixie and eight of the twelve tickets were placed with 888sport as top priced bookmaker. Three then went to bet365 and the remaining one with Betway. It's fair to say that two of these firms won't let me bet a bag of chips on a horse but are happy to take my football money. Make of that what you will!

[Click the image to enlarge it in a new window]

 

Football Season Preview 2024_25

Twelve bets, so for 50p's it's £6, and hopefully a few of these teams take us through the season with some hope in our hearts and, erm, wagers.

Good luck!

Matt

p.s. if you play Fantasy Football, you can join the geegeez FFL league using this link. It's just for fun, but I might give a prize to the winner at the end of the season 😉

The league code is g9lu1j

Roving Reports: It’s Glorious

/in /by

Goodwood is one of those weeks of the year that, as a racing fan, even one that prefers jump racing, you look forward to, writes David Massey. A wonderful setting, quality facilities, a chance to catch up with friends both at the track and outside of it.

Sure, it helps that I’m not working for one of the books this week (only the Ebor left to do now, and that’s my career as a bookie's workman done) and that I’m working alongside my new work partner Vicki for the week - more of what we’re up to later - but first, a leisurely drive down on Monday afternoon to stay in Haslemere at my friend Sarah’s house.

Sarah is kindly putting up with me for the week and her hospitality is second to none, and again that’s a lot nicer than staying in a hotel on your own. Sarah, a Goodwood member, intends going every day, and knows her horses inside out.

As if to show how hospitable she can be, there’s lasagne in the oven when I get there, which goes down very well with a Peroni. I think I’m going to be just fine here for the week.

Tuesday morning and my word, it’s hot. 24 degrees on the car dashboard as I drive in at 8.30am, and the air conditioning is on full. As is my music. “Bit lively for this time in a morning, isn’t it?” the car park attendant enquires as he tells me where I’m parking for the week. Clearly not a fan of the Prodigy then, or at least their older stuff.

I’m right at the back of the press room, which means I can see everything going on in front of me, and can keep an eye on certain photographers, inevitably up to something that will involve money coming out of my wallet for some gamble or other they have had wind of.

Two coffees in and I’m ready for a walk of the track but the temperature is up to a scorching 27 already and I decide that a quick 3f dash is all that’s required. I don’t want to be dripping in sweat before we’ve even started. Vicki arrives around 10.30 and we start planning our week.

A few of you, as you’ve seen me around, have asked what the new venture is. Well, in a nutshell, Vicki and I both had the idea of doing live-time paddock updates earlier in the year, and Goodwood is our trial week. Various companies and on-course bookmakers will be taking our feed across the five days which, alongside my mark-your-card on each day, we hope proves beneficial to them.

We’ve three separate feeds, for which we use Telegram and WhatsApp, and although I’m skipping ahead here, by the end of the week it seems to have been a success. Indeed, the bookmakers that have taken it are already asking about the Ebor and the Leger Festivals. If it’s good enough for them, and they’re a picky lot at the best of times, then we’re doing something right. I’ll get the plug in - tracksidemediaservices.com if you’re interested.

The mercury hits 30 as we start the afternoon’s work. And there’s no fresh air. It doesn’t take the bookmakers long to realise this is going to be a very quiet afternoon for them. “Everyone’s just staying in the shade, nobody’s coming out to bet”, moans one of them. “It’s like working in sodding Cyprus”, complains another. I know what they mean, and from someone that lives in Nottingham, not Nicosia, this is far, far too hot. Fair play to the Goodwood executives who have made the sensible decision that jackets may be taken off. Common sense has prevailed.

I’ve no strong fancies on the Tuesday and that’s just as well, as my selections are sunk without trace. I immediately have a crisis of confidence and stopping short of slapping me around the face and telling me to have a word with myself, Vicki does her reassuring thing that I’ve not gone at the game in a day, and it’ll all be fine tomorrow. However, Vicki asks a favour of me that, she says, is well above my paygrade - would I iron two items of clothing she’s brought in with her, as her place doesn’t have an iron? If it gets around the press room I’m running an ironing service I’ll not hear the last of it, but I agree to her request, as I’m a nice guy.

Tuesday evening sees us finishing up the lasagne, along with some salad. This will be one of only two occasions on the week when something even reasonably healthy passes my lips. I’ve said before how awfully you tend to eat when you’re away from home for any great length of time and as a man left to my own devices, the profits from nearby takeaways would tend to soar for a few days when that happens. However, Sarah is a tremendous cook, and indeed baker; every morning she bakes for her friends that will be attending Goodwood, starting the process at 7am, and I kid you not when I say her planning for putting it all in the oven is to the minute. She tells me she almost made The Great British Bake-Off back in the day, but the final heats before the TV stage were Cheltenham week, and so she told them she couldn’t make it. Sarah, my friends, has her priorities right.

Wednesday. It is no cooler, maybe a shade hotter, in fact. I’m wearing the lightest shirt I have and I’m still cooking by the time I’ve reached the entrance gates at 9am. My suggestion to racecourses on days like this is to let everyone walk through the cooling fans that the horses use after a race, charge them a quid a time for a minute in front of them. Here, Goodwood, take my money! I hang up the two items of clothing I’ve ironed (beautifully, I might add) for Vicki and crack on.

Poor Vicki comes in with bites all over her. No, she’s not had a good night, dear reader, not those sort of bites, but mosquito bites. Luckily for her I carry antihistamines at all times (hay fever) which help her cause, but she needs more medication than that. She battles on through the bites and heat and the pair of us have a much better day, getting Henry Longfellow beat, and my confidence returns. Business is still very poor in the ring, though, and I’ve basically turned into a waterboy for them. “Same problems as yesterday, nobody wants to move”, says Martyn Of Leicester. “Get me two cans of Coke, will you?”. I’ve turned into a gopher for the books.

Sarah and I, along with her two children, go out for food that night, which saves the ache of cooking at the end of a long day. Nothing I eat that night is healthy. Thank God I’m doing about 12,000 steps a day to make up for the rubbish I throw down me this week.

There’s talk of rain around on Thursday and the weather breaking, which it needs to, as it isn’t getting any cooler. My linen suit is on its last legs, and I fear after one more sweaty day it’ll find its own way to the dry cleaners. Speaking of which, word is out about my ironing exploits earlier in the week, and the jokes are starting. “How much for a full bag?”, asks photographer Alan Crowhurst, the leader of the clown pack. “Some of it might need a wash, mind”, he states, pulling a face that says I wouldn’t want to go anywhere near whatever it is he’s got lined up.

Mid-morning, one lad comes over with a cup of tea for his boss, sat next to me. It’s fair to say we’re packed in pretty tight next to one another and as he leans over to put the tea down, the cup rocks, almost in slow-motion, and I can see it heading for my laptop. After what seems like an eternity, the cup settles, as does my heart, but not for long. Five minutes later he’s back, with a phone on a selfie stick, which again hovers above my laptop; the phone falls out of the holder, hitting the table with a loud thump about three centimetres away from my keyboard. Sharp words are exchanged between the lad and his boss, and he’s told just to go downstairs, where she’ll join him shortly; I require the defib.

We’re gaining confidence as the week goes on, Vicki and me, and find both Approval and Mr Chaplin at decent prices on paddock looks, which is nice. We’re also meeting some lovely people as we go this week, with a few asking what it is we’re up to, including a delegate from the Hong Kong Jockey Club, who wishes us well with our project. Ebt’s Guard almost nets us a hat-trick on the day in the last but we have to settle for second. Vicki and I are out in Bognor after racing (seems rude not to go to the seaside when you’re so close) and let me tell you good people, the reviving effects of seawater on tired feet cannot be overstated. Ten minutes standing on the edge of the sea chatting racing and it feels like I’ve a new pair of plates. Fish ‘n’ chips are the order of the day, followed by half an hour throwing money away in the arcade. Except my luck is in, and I’ve an absolute pocketful of pound coins by the time we leave. (They’ll go in the pound jar when I get back. I save them all for the Eastern Festival at Yarmouth every year.) Vicki has won a foam glider from the 2p pushers. Everyone’s a winner.

Friday. No rain has been forthcoming, although clearly Epsom had their share last night. Maybe, just maybe, it’s down a degree or two but as Phil Collins might have said, there’s no jacket required.

On the drive in I spot a place in Midhurst that, if Bad Manners didn’t open with a song, I can only assume the owners missed a trick:

 

 

It’s all happening in the press room. One prominent member of the press corps has had a new jacket go missing: he’s not happy. My good friend and photographer Debbie arrives; she’s the latest to suffer The Attack Of The Night Mosquitos and, as well as her legs, one has bitten her just under the eye. She too gets help from my drugs stash, which sounds a lot harder than saying you’ve got paracetamol and antihistamines.

Business is improving for the bookies (“it’s ten times better than it has been”, says one, perhaps exaggerating ever-so-slightly) and as we continue to have a decent week, the pair of us finding the nursery winner at a good price, it definitely starts to cool as a breeze gets up, which is almost greeted with a cheer. Friday night is fish ‘n’ chip night, again; I did have an apple and an orange earlier, which makes me feel slightly better about it.

And finally to Saturday, and cooler weather, thank God. Sarah is back on her feet, and baking again, which is good to see. The smell of chicken pies in the oven at 7.15am is making me hungry. There’s a tea and bacon sandwich on the way, she tells me. God, she’s good. Why would I want to stay anywhere else? I think I might be making more trips to Fontwell this winter…

It’s actually drizzling as I drive in, and I’ve never been so happy to see it raining. The press room is virtually empty, compared to the rest of the week. Once the Group 1’s are done, it does tend to quieten down. Which is fine, it means the rest of us can spread out a bit! Also, more cake for us in the afternoon. I play Dog Roulette with a couple of others to pass the time in the morning (you’re best not asking, all you need to know is it cost me a tenner).

Vicki’s friend Jenn is arriving today, and when I say arriving, I mean from Luxembourg. Jenn has never been racing before, and is excited to see what it’s all about. Needless to say, as it’s her first visit, she’s allowed to back winners (it’s how we all get the bug) and finds Term Of Endearment at 15-2. “I’m a little tipsy!” she exclaims after her winner. Well, when you hang around with a certain Paul Binfield (Paddy’s PR) for the afternoon, that’s gonna happen, lady….

Before the Stewards Cup gets underway, the strangest thing of the week happens. I’m stood near a bar when, seemingly from nowhere, four police surround a bloke sat on a bench near me. It appears the man in question has been missing for a while, but now they’ve found him. He claims mistaken identity and rather helpfully has his passport on him, but the coppers aren’t buying it. The words “we can sort this at the station” are heard, and before you know it, he (and his mate) are taken away. I can only hope he didn’t back Get It, or he’ll never get his money now.

Somehow I find 40-1 winner Witness Stand (no aftertiming here, it got a good write up beforehand) and that, along with Align The Stars, puts the cap on a good week. Our trials appear to have worked well, with the books asking if we’re thinking of running this for the Ebor (we are). Even the drive home is kind, with no traffic on the M25 or M1. Back home for 9, tired but happy. York, here we come…

- DM

Monday Musings: Mick’s the Man

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The Appleby “brothers” were at it at Goodwood last week, with Charlie first to the fore, winning the Sussex Stakes with the revived 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech and  the Group 2 Vintage Stakes with improving juvenile Aomori City, writes Tony Stafford.

You can always identify a Charlie Appleby runner, the Royal blue silks only ever modified by different-coloured caps when there are multiple entries. At Goodwood he ran only four horses over the five days, when hot sunshine and the avoidance of any of the promised thunderstorms [I found one on Thursday going home around the almost-flooded southern portion of the M25] were the theme of the meeting.

Charlie has one owner, Godolphin, and, according to Horses in Training 2024, 233 horses to pick from. The same publication at the time of the snapshot before the season started listed 102 for Michael Appleby, a journeyman who made his way out of the Andrew Balding stable into his own business around 20 years ago. At the end of last week, it was Mick, rather than Charlie, or indeed Aidan O’Brien, that was declared Champion Trainer at the meeting.

That 102, bolstered since by additional juveniles, is the result of hard graft, ever-improving results and continually punching above his weight. Local businesses, clubs and syndicates with shrewdies like the Dixon brothers through their Horse Watchers horses [and geegeez.co.uk! - Ed.], have hastened the upward trajectory. The weaving together of these strands has provided the cocktail of horses that benefit from the “Mick” treatment, with sprinters the foundation of it all. And, of course, he isn’t Charlie’s brother!

If ever there was a moment to evidence the culmination and flowering of the effort of those two decades, it was Big Evs’ winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita last autumn in a battle of three Europeans. He and Tom Marquand held off runners from the Adrian Murray and Ralph Beckett yards.

That was a fourth win in six starts, Big Evs having collected previously the Flying Childers at Doncaster, after sinking in the Nunthorpe at York the previous month.

One obvious observation in the aftermath of his finishing 14th of 16 against the top older sprinters is just how insensitive and crass it was of the stewards at the meeting to ask Appleby for an explanation for his “poor performance”. He’s a two-year-old for pity’s sake! Do you know nothing about horses?

Back home and with the US win on his scabbard, Big Evs made a winning return in a Listed race at the York May meeting. Royal Ascot the following month was a lottery for the most part in the week’s sprints so while ‘only’ 3rd to the Australian speedster Asfoora in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes, he ‘won’ his race on the unfavoured far side.

The ultra-valuable King George Stakes last week was his first run since Ascot, and it gave him the chance to avenge the defeat. He duly gained that revenge - though only by a short-head - as the Australian mare was hunting him down in the final yards.

Big Evs was the sixth Mick Appleby runner at Goodwood last week and the fourth winner. The only two losers at that point were Billyjoh, second in a seven-furlong handicap – the longest trip any of the team attempted all week – and Mr Lightside in the Molecomb Stakes.

Mr Lightside went into that race as the better fancied (11/1) of the stable duo, but 25/1 shot Big Mojo, having dwelt at the start and raced in rear early, had the pace to come through and win under Silvestre de Sousa. Mr Lightside was a close third and will have plenty of wins to come given that sharp speed he showed.

Going into the Molecomb as a maiden – Big Mojo had, like Big Evs prior to his Listed Windsor Castle win at Royal Ascot last year, been runner-up on debut at one of the Yorkshire tracks, Beverley in his case – he was an expensive buy for the yard, and owners Paul and Rachael Teasdale, at his 175,000gns yearling price. Bought from Derek Veitch of Ringfort Stud, he clearly holds a high place in Appleby’s estimation. “He could be as good as Big Evs,” he said. Praise indeed.

Handicappers Kitai over seven furlongs and Shagraan, at the minimum trip, completed the winners’ roll for the stable, but there was still to be one last hurrah, planned for the earlier second finisher Billyjoh.

If Appleby could have moaned about the draw for Big Evs at Ascot, he would have been entitled to have regretted the one that got away after the also very well-endowed Stewards’ Cup on Saturday. Twenty-five of the 28 declared kept the engagement and Billyjoh, drawn four, led into the final furlong on his side of the race – they did edge across - finishing best of the 16 that kept up the middle.

Meanwhile George Baker’s six-year-old Get It had grabbed the near rail from the outset, leading clearly, and held on all the way, with major sprint handicap regular Apollo One getting closest for a staying-on half-length second.

Peter Charalambous earned a not insignificant £60k for his troubles with Apollo One but he must be despairing of the big win his wonderful servant at age six deserves. He couldn’t complain of the luck of the draw though – the first six came from 28, 27, 4 (Billyjoh), 24, 26 and 20! Peter pretty much is training just the single horse under the Charalambous/ Clutterbuck ticket, and the gelding is now up to £350k in earnings, 80% of it for places.

Get It was a notable local success for genial George Baker, once a wet-behind-the-ears writer for the long-defunct Sportsman newspaper, but ever the mine host over Goodwood’s entire week. He is entering a new phase of his career with a stable to be based in Bahrain over the coming winter.

I still remember pulling up at one of my 2009 trips down to the west of France, availing myself of the late Roger Hales’ driving skills. We were there at Le Lion d’Angers to watch the second of French Fifteen’s three consecutive wins down there and who should we bump into before racing but George, who had a runner in another race. Ever the ground breaker is George!

As usual, Ryan Moore’s skills were in evidence all week. Kyprios in the Goodwood Cup proved easy enough and was a testimony to Aidan O’Brien and the team’s skills to rehabilitate him from the severe injury problems of 2022 into 2023 to be the revived master stayer of his time.

Ryan had predicted he would be too good for what he described as horses that were “much of a muchness”, but in truth were decent 110-plus rated stayers all. Moore needed to be much closer to the peak of his powers though when completing a big-race double on Thursday aboard Jan Breughel in the Gordon Stakes and last year’s champion juvenile filly Opera Singer in the Nassau Stakes.

Each time it looked as if his nearest challenger might be about to pass him but Ryan seems to mesmerise his fellow jockeys in such situations. Opera Singer was the sixth winner of the Nassau Stakes – but only the fourth for Aidan O’Brien - for the Coolmore owners, starting in 2007 with the remarkable Peeping Fawn. Minding and Winter were the other two of Aidan’s within that 17-year period.

Like City Of Troy, her male counterpart as juvenile champion last year, Opera Singer is by Triple Crown hero Justify; and it seems the plan is to go for the Arc with this highly-talented filly. City Of Troy, of course, is pencilled in for the Juddmonte International at York this month.

Later, the juvenile newcomer Dreamy, by the Coolmore team’s other Triple Crown winning stallion American Pharoah, overcame greenness to win the fillies’ maiden under the same jockey to make it a Ballydoyle/Coolmore hat-trick, though each wearing different silks such are the extending tentacles of the co-ownership edges of the operation these days.

Eight years ago, the same maiden race was won by Rhododendron, but she had the benefit of a run in Ireland beforehand. A multiple Group 1 winner, she is, of course, the dam of Auguste Rodin. If Horses In Training is correct, Dreamy is the only American Pharoah two-year-old among the one hundred-plus juveniles at Ballydoyle. Someone knows how to pick which goes where!

Finally, as if three wins on the day for the team weren’t enough, Mrs Doreen Tabor had a winner in her colours that same afternoon at Nottingham, trained by Ralph Beckett!

- TS

Examining the Final Market Rank of Morning Favourites

/in /by

In this article, I will examine market patterns with horses that are clear favourite when the bookmaker’s early odds are set, writes Dave Renham. This is typically from 9am on the day of the race in question. For favourite backers especially, having a better appreciation of how likely an early morning favourite is to remain market leader is a key part of the betting puzzle. For the record, I have taken data from UK flat/AW racing going back to 2016.

Rate of early favourites remaining favourite at the 'off'

Firstly, let me examine how many early morning clear favourites remain as a favourite come ‘the off’:

 

 

As the graph shows, just under 64% of early morning clear favourites retain this position at the head of the market come the start of the race. That rises to nearly 70% if we include joint-favourites, while just above 30% do not retain favouritism.

These figures account for all runners, so let's drill down into various sub-categories.

 

Handicap vs. non-handicap final market rank

To begin with, I have divided the races into handicap races versus non-handicap races. One would expect to see a difference here, with non-handicaps more likely to see early morning favourites retaining their primacy come ‘the off’:

 

 

Over 73% of early morning jollies remained clear favourites in non-handicap races by the start of the race – roughly 15% above the average in relative terms.

Onto the handicap splits now:

 

 

For handicap races, less than 60% of early morning favourites have remained at the head of the market. As predicted, there is quite a difference between both race types.

 

Handicap Favourites: Early price vs. SP

Sticking with these early morning favourites in handicaps, let me examine actual price movement now. How many of morning jollies shorten in price, how many lengthen, and how many stay the same? Here are the findings:

 

 

Over half of early morning handicap favourites drift, which is perhaps to be expected given the data shared above regarding the percentage of early favourites that fail to retain SP favouritism. Of this subset of drifters, just under 34% remain clear favourites, 8% start as joint favourites, and 58% end up second choice or lower in the betting.

Therefore, if you are keen to back an early-priced favourite in a handicap, waiting until much later in the day to place your bet makes more sense. Of course, you can use the Best Odds Guaranteed option, but the downside is that if the horse drifts during the day, you’ll end up getting Industry SP, which is not as good as Betfair SP. BSP has paid around 10p in the £ more than Industry SP with these drifting early favourites throughout the study – that’s huge.

 

Early Favourites by Class of race

I want to look at class of race next to see if that makes a difference to the market behaviour of early morning favourites. Clearly, with literally 99.9%* of Class 1 events being non-handicaps, one would expect Class 1 races to see a higher percentage of horses retaining favouritism. In the graph below, I am comparing the percentages of early morning clear favourites that maintain their status at the head of the market by class of race:

*12153 out of 12165 on the flat in UK in the last five years

 

 

Class 1 races are by far the most likely to see the early morning favourite keep that honour. Interestingly, the 77.7% figure is well above the average figure for non-handicaps shared earlier (73.4%). It is also worth noting that the two lowest classes have the lowest figures, and most of these contests will have been handicaps.

Going back to ‘better’ races, if we split Class 1 races up for early morning favourites, we see the following in terms of their final market position:

 

 

The data tell us that the better the race class, the more likely the early morning favourite retains favouritism at the start of the race. This makes sense as we'd generally expect odds compilers and punters to have a stronger handle, as well as level of confidence, on the best races. Moreover, there tend to be ante post markets for such races which allows more time for prices to settle.

 

Early Favourites by Day of the week

Let's now see if the day of the week makes any difference to favourite price movement from morning to 'off' time. My theory is that Saturday may see early morning jollies retain their status the most, but let’s have a look:

 

 

In fact, Friday has seen the highest percentage of consistent favourites, with Saturday following just ahead of Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday are both noticeably lower, which may indicate the general quality of racing on the first two days of the week. Aside from the Monday/Tuesday component, there are no clear patterns or takeaways here.

 

Early Favourites: "The Dettori factor"

I now want to see if there might be what I've called a 'Dettori factor' when it comes to jockeys. Some punters still have jockeys they follow and probably follow over a cliff occasionally. So, I am trying to unravel whether any such rider is more likely to retain their position at the head of the market from morning to race time. I have chosen 20 jockeys with a good data set to analyse. They are ordered alphabetically:

 

 

There is quite a spread here when analysing the ‘Clear SP favourite %’ column, with James Doyle the highest at 77.9% and Shane Kelly the lowest at 55.5%. For Shane Kelly, one of the reasons it is low is because 71% of his rides have been in handicaps. That said, his figure is significantly below the average for all races/jockeys, at 59.1%. Therefore, one may expect that James Doyle’s splits for handicaps versus non-handicaps would be the opposite of Kelly's, with around 70% of rides in non-handicaps. However, the split is actually very even, with 53% of his rides being in non-handicaps and 47% in handicaps.

17 of the 20 jockeys have ‘Clear SP favourite’ percentages above the average (63.7%), with most of them well above. Maybe this is more of an indication of the stables they generally ride for. Perhaps it relates to the fact that they will ride more often in a higher class of race than your more journeymen/women jockeys. Maybe it is a combination of the two. Perhaps it is a combination of all three – jockeys, trainers, and classes.

 

Early Favourites by Trainer

Having looked at jockeys, I will now examine some trainers to see what their stats bring to the table. As with the pilots, I am looking at whether any trainer is more likely to retain their position at the head of the market from morning to race time. Here are my findings (I have chosen 35 individual trainer stats to share):

 

 

Generally, the higher figures in the Clear SP Fav% column come from high-profile stables that attack better races and meetings. Aidan O’Brien’s figure of 87.4% stands out. One would expect him to be at or near the top, but that number is still impressive. Most of his early morning favourites retained SP favouritism and more of them shortened in price during the day than lengthened: specifically, 53.7% shortened in price, 34.5% lengthened in price, and 11.8% stayed the same. This goes against the grain because if you look at all early morning favourites in all races, only 40.6% shorten, while a more significant 50.5% lengthen with 8.9% remaining the same price.

Sticking with O’Brien for a moment, when Ryan Moore has been riding the early morning jolly, these runners have remained favourite slightly more often than his average at 88.7%.

Charlie Appleby is the only other trainer hitting over 80% in this category. What is interesting about Appleby’s stats is that his figures are not skewed by race class. Below are the Clear SP Favourite percentages across the different class bands for Charlie Appleby's runners:

 

 

These figures are pretty level across the board with the lowest classes of race - those class 5, 6 or 7 races - seeing the highest percentage. Appleby’s figure for handicaps is 76.3%; for non-handicaps, it is 82.9%.

At the other end of the scale, Tim Easterby has a figure of 54.2% for early-morning favourites retaining final favouritism. However, with 88% of his qualifiers running in handicaps, one can see why this figure is low. Having said that, the 54.2% figure is also comparatively low – given that the average figure for all trainers is bang on 60% of handicap morning favourites retaining that status as the gates open.

Summary

This type of research has been new to me, and looking at early morning favourites offers a useful starting point in understanding how the top of the market may develop during the day. Clearly, every individual betting market will evolve differently, but even from what I have looked at so far there are definite patterns in terms of those early morning market leaders. There are also scenarios where it is more likely for the early morning favourite to still be the favourite come ‘the off’. The three strongest are:

1. Non-handicaps
2. Class 1 races, especially Group races
3. Runners from the stables of Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien

I am further interested in researching how markets evolve during the day. Regarding early-morning favourites, I plan to examine early-morning prices coupled with the number of runners in the race. That may take a while, but it is on my ‘to-do’ list. And looking at price/rank movement for other market positions is also on that list.

Finally, if readers have any other topics/ideas they would like me to research for potential future articles, please post them in the comments below.

-DR

Monday Musings: Beaten by Sepsis

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It’s funny when you speak regularly with people in racing, especially in my case primarily those I’d known in my previous incarnation, that memories come flooding back, writes Tony Stafford.

For example, before the first at Ascot on Saturday, a two-year-old contest, representing part-owner Jonathan Barnett and his Fire Flame, I stood at the end of the paddock to view it on the big screen. While there, I ran (or rather stumbled) into David Loder and John Garnsey. Many years ago, when Loder started training at Sefton Lodge in Newmarket, he had terrific success, notably with his juveniles, which were always well-schooled and ready to run.

Ricky Bowman was an “enthusiastic” work rider at a time when whip use was less frowned upon and indeed “when whips were whips”.

So, the Loder horses went into action with the equivalent of a race behind them and it was pretty easy to find winning opportunities. Many of the best prospects found their way into my Daily Telegraph tips as I was in contact with David every day.

So much so that when I bumped into legendary punter Harry Findlay at Doncaster sales maybe 15 years later, he said that when I napped one, he had his maximum on. “No commission, Harry?”

David has stopped training for some time. When he left Newmarket for the first time to look after the Sheikh Mohammed horses in Evry, France, on the site of the former racecourse, after Jeremy Noseda declined the offer, the contact finished.

Before he left, we regularly used to suggest that John Gosden didn’t seem to be doing much of a job with the Sheikh Mohammed home-breds in his yard. The first year he returned, I bumped into him as he was about to run his juvenile City On A Hill in the July Stakes. Of course it won, as did Noverre the following year.

As we were about to pass, he stopped me and said:” You know we used to laugh at John Gosden about what a crap job he did with the Sheikh Mo home-breds?” "Of course", I laughed. “Well, I’ve got them now and I think he was a f…… genius to do what he did with them!”, he said.

Now the wheel has turned full circle, David and Anthony Stroud are back buying the sales horses for Godolphin in close concert with the boss and Charlie Appleby, who was with Loder in the yard back in those Evry days.

I was chatting to Charlie a bit later along with Jono Mills, who was the young manager for the Rabbah (Godolphin-lite as I used to call them) horses at the time. Quite a few were in the revised Loder team after the Sheikh ended the Evry project and David took out a licence to train publicly from Egerton stud, next to the National Stud in the town, and the base for David Elsworth until his retirement a couple of seasons ago. Johnny Murtagh, before his Classic-winning time at Coolmore and post-John Oxx, rode the horses and unlike in David’s first go at the job, they tended to finish 2nd. Murtagh couldn’t ride a winner and Dave soon ended the experiment - Jono still remembers the frustration of it all.

Now, tall and lean and looking like some distinguished film producer, Loder can lay claim to Thursday’s wide-margin Sandown debut winner Ruling Court, a €2.3 million buy from Arqana. “Maybe he beat trees, but he looked good,” he said. A son of Justify so maybe another City Of Troy would be the hope

John Garnsey was and is an almost exact (but slightly younger) contemporary of mine, him at the Daily Express. Quiet and amusingly laconic whenever we meet, he usually says something like: “Well at least we’re still here!”

We had all agreed as the horses milled around behind the stalls that one of the runners, Letsbeatsepsis, had a most unfortunate name. Trained by Gary and Josh Moore, obviously there was a story behind it. Loder was there to watch another of his discoveries, the 1.5million gns Al Misbah, the 11/10 favourite.

A slow start didn’t help the favourite and he could only keep on for fourth, just ahead of a tubby-looking Fire Flame, with both beaten for third by Letsbeatsepsis, an 80/1 shot.

I thought I’d better investigate and indeed there is a story. I called Jayne Moore, wife of Gary, mum to joint-trainer Josh, recently-retired jump jockey Jamie and TV star Hayley. Oh, there’s also Ryan, who won that race on Richard Hannon’s Our Terms and went on to take the next, the Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) for Ollie Sangster.

Jayne explained that Letsbeatsepsis’ owner-breeder Patrick Moorhead had fallen ill with sepsis a few years back and hadn’t heard of it until he caught the disease. He was in ITU for months, but when he recovered, thought it would be an appropriate name to make people aware of it.

Saturday’s runner, a first foal, shows enough talent to do just that. I did some research and discovered that sepsis in the UK claims 48,000 deaths annually. The much more publicised breast cancer (11,500) and prostate cancer (12,000) claim together less than a half as many victims. To illustrate the full horror of sepsis, it is estimated that 11 million, one-fifth the world’s annual death toll, succumb to it.

Gary had only half a dozen two-two-year old wins in the past five years but now with Josh on the licence you can expect the younger end of the team to press for more flat horses and if possible of a precocious nature.

One young man on the fast track to success is Ollie Sangster, and not the least of his skill in only his second season as a trainer has been to judge the time when allowing big-name owners to buy out the existing owners.

Judging by the smiles of parents Ben and Lucy before the Princess Margaret, the price paid for the twice-raced maiden Simmering by Al Shaqab Racing was substantial enough for original partner Lucy to enjoy the day whatever happened.

Just as at Royal Ascot where Simmering flew home in the shadow of highly rated Fairy Godmother, showing similar finishing speed in the Albany Stakes to the winner, Simmering again got a fair way behind. Then Ryan, switched from her Royal meeting nemesis, found himself a fair way back but came through the middle of the field and was well on top at the finish. A 70,000gns daughter of Too Darn Hot, Simmering will have enhanced her value still further, but that sure touch Ollie showed when lining up a Group 3 to break a maiden will have impressed the international set.

Later, Ben Sangster, still with a full-on smile, was anxious not to put too much expectation on the young man’s shoulders. Ollie, obviously grandson to Robert Sangster, should according to Ben, “take small steps. The dream is still there though that one day he can move into the main yard at Manton House.”

One final point about King George day and the main event. Before the race Aidan O’Brien, having walked the course earlier, and Ryan Moore told Michael Tabor of their misgivings after 3mm of water were added overnight. Also, near the inside they had put down a fair amount of sand. Michael, realistic as ever, said: “It’s what it is!” almost resigned to another down to the 2023 Derby winner’s in-out career.

One thing I’m pretty sure of: the winner, the Francis-Henri Graffard-trained gelding Goliath will have been the first winner of the race with such a pronounced case of stringhalt. As he went past us in the pre-parade, I was dying to ask him: “Can you do it as well with your right hind leg?" Bet he can’t! Decent performance though.

**

Yesterday featured the last day’s UK jump racing for around three weeks. While the top jockeys will be able to afford to go on exotic trips, their lesser-earning counterparts will be ruing the fact of reduced earning possibilities. Nicky Richards told me that he thought the stop was an opportunity missed. In Ireland they have races for jockeys that have won fewer than 20 races in the previous season and he reckons that should have been copied here.

Meanwhile, on another contentious issue, Dylan Cunha, who won a Racing League contest at Yarmouth last Thursday, goes further, believing that the top 20 trainers could be excluded to no harm for themselves, leaving the better prize money in these races to the remainder. Hughie Morrison, one of the Team Scotland trainers in the Racing League, believes that the bigger than usual for the grade money available has merely been “stolen” from the rest of the UK’s races in their respective grade. Three men with plenty to say and all with feasible opinions.

- TS

A day in the life of the Tote Placepot: Part 2

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This is the second article in a two-part series where I am looking at the Tote Placepot, writes Dave Renham. The data have been collated from the first six months of 2024 to give readers a good overview of this popular type of pool bet. I have included both UK and Irish racing. Part one can be found here.

The maths

The first point worth making is that the final pool size is less important than one might think in terms of your potential to win big. Let me explain mathematically why by comparing two hypothetical Placepot pools that, in terms of race-by-race outcomes, effectively mirror each other. I will assume that in each race, the placed horses account for 30% of the remaining units. Here’s how the maths work:

Placepot 1 – Final Pool Size £50,000

 

 

As you can see, the final winning units figure is £36.45. To calculate the Placepot payout, we need to divide £50,000 by £36.50, which gives a final dividend of £1,371.74 for a £1 unit stake.

 

Placepot 2 – Final Pool Size £400,000

 

 

In this example, we have £291.60 units left, but if we divide this figure by £400,000 to get our payout, lo and behold, we get the same final dividend of £1,371.74 for a £1 unit stake.

This happens because Placepot payouts/dividends are based on the percentage of the pot that is left. 10% of £1,000 and 10% of £2,000,000 is still 10%! Indeed, with a low starting pool of £79,000, the largest payout in the six months leading up to June's end came at Chelmsford. The payout to a £1 stake was just shy of £40k for a £1 unit stake. In addition to this payout, the third highest dividend in this time frame came at Tramore (£11,230.30 for a £1 stake), and the pool that day was just £13,667.

Average Placepot Dividend by Month

Having clarified some of the maths, let me start to look at some dividend data. In my previous article, I mentioned that in most years, the average dividend across all courses is around £400 to £500 to a £1 stake. Regarding the first six months of 2024, the average dividend has been £438. However, when we compare the average dividend month by month, we see how it can fluctuate:

 

 

As you can see, the January and February averages were much lower than the other four months, with January surprisingly modest at just £123.30. March and June have the most significant averages, just above the £600 mark. One cannot say whether these monthly figures indicate the ‘norm’, but with the Cheltenham Festival in March and Royal Ascot in June, I guess these two months will be at the higher end of the scale most years. Both have been the scene of monster dividends in the recent past.

Average Placepot Dividend by Country

It's time to break the data by country – UK versus Ireland.

 

 

Both nations are over the £400 mark, with the UK edging it. This is partly because Irish meetings take 30% out of the pool rather than the UK figure of 27%. It is, however, another example of how the payouts over time tend to average around these marks.

Distribution of Placepot Dividends

Now, I want to look at how the dividends have been spread across in terms of actual payouts. The table below illustrates this:

 

 

As can be seen, most payouts have been £100 or under – roughly 40% of pots have returned £50 or less, while 57% of all Placepots have been £100 or less. At the other end of the scale, payouts of over £1000 have occurred at 7.4% of meetings. As a regular Placepot punter, it pays to have patience – big payouts will occur, but they won’t happen day in and day out.

Placepot Dividends by Course

Regarding Placepot data for individual courses, data is limited for some tracks due to only six months of data. However, any course that has seen 12 or more Placepots in 2024 is shown below with their average dividend. I have ordered them by the number of meetings:

 

 

There is considerable variance between some courses, but that is to be expected, given the nature of this specific bet. These fluctuations are also more likely to be seen given the number of meetings we are dealing with. For example, in the courses with only 12 meetings, it just takes one significant dividend to increase the overall average markedly. This happened with Fairyhouse, as it turns out, thanks to a £7424 dividend, changing the average from £471 to £1051.

Course Dividend Example: Newcastle

The five all-weather courses at the top of the table have had a decent number of meetings. Let me share all the dividends for the top three courses in the table to help build a picture for each. Looking at Newcastle, here are all 45 dividends:

 

 

27 of the 45 (60%) were under £100, so just above the average for all courses (see earlier). Also, there were no payouts over £1000. This helps explain why the average dividend is down at £152.85. Newcastle hosts mainly all-weather racing (37 of the 45 meetings in the sample), and the average dividend on the sand was £172.64. Eight National Hunt meetings had a very low average dividend of £61.31.

Course Dividend Example: Wolverhampton

Wolverhampton had 44 meetings with the following dividends:

 

 

28 of the 44 dividends (63.6%) were under £100. There was one significant payout of £1349.80. Again, these numbers explain the modest average figure of £135.96.

Course Dividend Example: Southwell

Southwell, like Newcastle, hosts both NH racing and all-weather racing. The average figure for the NH meetings was £1088.03; for the all-weather, it was just £133.80. Let me split the individual dividends up this time – first, the NH:

 

 

There is quite a variety within this small subset, with seven dividends under £112 and five over £500 – three of those over £2K.

Onto the Southwell All-weather dividends:

 

 

There was nothing big here on the dividend front, with just one payout of more than £500. This means the four highest payouts came from the 12 NH meetings rather than from the 27 AW ones.

Breakdown of a Monster Placepot Dividend

To finish, I would like to go back and look in detail at the biggest Placepot payout in the last six months, which I mentioned earlier, was at Chelmsford. It occurred on 29th March, so let me take you through race by race.

Race 1 – The money wagered on this meeting was £78,973.19. After the 27% deduction, the starting pot was £57,650.41. The result for the first race was as follows:

 

 

With only two getting placed and the favourite missing out in third, around 81% of the pot disappeared, with £11,075.02 remaining going into race 2. Just over 50% of that 81% were units on the favourite.

Race 2 – A 12-runner event next, meaning three ‘placers’:

 

 

Although both the favourite and second favourite placed, the first three runners accounted for less than 40% of the remaining units, leaving £4273.85 in the pot with four races still to go.

Race 3 – Another 12-runner race for the third one:

 

 

The favourite placed again, as did the third favourite. This time, a smaller chunk was lost (around 37% of the units), leaving £2702.75 in the pot.

Race 4 – A 16-runner handicap was next on the card, meaning four horses would ‘place’:

 

 

I am sure all readers will be looking at the prices of the first four and appreciating that this result decimated the pot. Three huge prices were 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, while the winner, Merrijig, was 6th best in the betting at 14/1. Only 1.4% of the pot survived this race, leaving a paltry £37.28 for the last two races.

Race 5 – A 15-runner race was next, and at this point, a huge payout was on the cards. The last two races would ‘decide’ how big:

 

 

The favourite and third favourite placed, but even so, 75% of the remaining units were lost, leaving under £10 left - £9.75 to be precise.

Race 6 – The final race saw the following result:

 

 

Two joint third favs made the frame, but 85% of the remaining money was lost, leaving just £1.46 to be split between the winning punter(s). The final dividend was £39,486.50 for a £1 stake.

This dividend was so significant due mainly to the result of race 4, with the four placers at 14/1, 40/1, 80/1, and 40/1. However, race 6 played a more significant part than you might think. If that final race had seen the top three in the betting come 1,2,3, then the dividend would have been cut to £11,960.67. That nearly 12K is not too shabby, but it is a long way off, almost 39.5K!

**

 

Summary

The Tote Placepot is an excellent bet with enormous potential – it can only take one or two shock results to enhance the final dividend significantly. In theory, you could have five favourites placing and have a decent payout. Imagine a scenario where five favs have already placed, and the last race was a 7-runner affair where the first and second were priced 50/1 and 100/1. In this case, the pot would probably flip from an expected £10 dividend to potentially £2,000 or more.

Having the scope to build in more permutations is key for long-term success IMO. This is where the Tix software comes into its own. Using Tix, you can have several favs in the perm, a few mid-priced runners, and a few outsiders. This gives you cover for minimal stakes. If you haven’t used it – try it today!

-DR

Monday Musings: Of Cups and Plates

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The joys of shared ownership were never better exemplified than on Saturday, with big wins on both the flat and in the most valuable race of the summer jumping season, writes Tony Stafford.

Suppose you owned a highly respected stud farm and stood three stallions, one of which, Nathaniel, is long-standing and good enough to have produced a mare of the calibre of world champion Enable, you would always be on the lookout for anything you thought capable of coming some way towards that sort of racecourse brilliance.

Step forward Graham Smith-Bernal, boss since May 2021 of former German-owned Newsells Park Stud. Nathaniel, a son of Galileo, has over the past couple of years been joined by smart mile performer Without Parole and top sprinter (five times Group winner) A’Ali.

Trained by John Gosden, Nathaniel began life in that famed juvenile maiden at an evening meeting at Newmarket, finishing a gallant runner-up to Sir Henry Cecil’s career-saving Frankel, also making his debut. Frankel’s famed 14-race unbeaten record entitles him to be regarding as maybe the best-ever flat racer.

Nathaniel was no slouch either, winning the King George at Ascot as a three-year-old, the Coral-Eclipse the following year, and edged out by a nose by Danedream in his follow-up King George attempt. He bowed out with a third to old adversary Frankel in the 2012 Champion Stakes, finishing their careers in the same race, too.

Four lengths was the margin this time, the brilliant French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles intervening. Frankel has lived up to his racecourse form at stud and stands for the Juddmonte operation for £350k. You might say that Nathaniel, if he can produce another Enable, is outstanding value at one-twentieth the Frankel figure at £17,500.

So here goes. There was a first-time Nathaniel filly in a Kempton 2yo maiden at the tail end of last year, running for the emerging Valmont operation and trained by Ralph Beckett. A £200k Tattersalls Book 1 yearling, You Got To Me started her debut race slowly, but soon made smooth headway to track the leaders on the outside. That effortless speed was what most impressed the Newsells team.

Then, having got to the lead inside the last furlong and a half, she showed resolution to win quite nicely at the finish, coming out best of four in a line 100 yards out, staying on well as you would expect a Nathaniel to do. Graham made contact as to whether she might be for sale. “Luckily, Valmont are traders. I offered £200,000, for a half-share. They replied “£300k.” We settled on £250k.” Some deal I think.”, he said.

The partnership began with a win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (or rather the Ralph Beckett benefit), followed by fourth in the Oaks and again fourth in the Ribblesdale, where she was very free, going into a near ten-length lead at Swinley Bottom. Once headed, she battled on more resolutely than could have been expected in the circumstances, for a close fourth.

Beckett decided to fit a first-time tongue-tie on Saturday in the Irish Oaks, to curb that enthusiasm, and it worked perfectly. The result? A measured performance where Hector Crouch managed to keep in Ryan Moore on the Coolmore favourite Concede just behind him in the home straight, and You Got To Me went on to win by a comfortable one and a half lengths, again showing that strong finish.

It probably helped the team that Moore didn’t get as smooth a passage as the winner and it will be interesting to see whether the result will be replicated on a further meeting.

Another Enable? Who knows, but You Got To Me is going the right way, stays well as do all the Nathaniels, but with that extra instant speed ingredient that most horses don’t possess. Instead of the boss being there to enjoy the win first-hand, it was deputed that racing and nominations manager Gary Coffey should represent the Newsells half of the team at the Curragh, a proud moment for the Irishman. “It was a great day for us, almost up there with when another partnership horse, Waldgeist, won the Arc the year after Enable’s second win in the race.”

Smith-Bernal, kept on home soil worrying about the health of the family dog, instead hosted 16 members and friends of a (sadly unplaced) Charlie Johnston-trained runner at Newmarket’s oddly-timed fixture. They had no luck, but a beaming Smith-Bernal made sure the champagne kept flowing. It was almost better to be celebrating in the owners’ dining room at Newmarket, able to whoop with delight as she passed the post. We happened to leave the course at the same time, he and wife Marcella holding hands, he with that massive grin still on his face.

The Newsells model is different from many others. They have around fifty mares of their own and another fifty or so for clients as well as a similar number of boarders. Their own colts and fillies are all available for sale. Newsells fixes a value and if they are unsold at the sale, often partnerships are negotiated with the stud retaining an interest for racing.

It wasn’t all gloom for Coolmore and especially Ryan Moore. He rode the most audaciously patient ride on the much-improved four-year-old Tower Of London in the one mile, six furlong Group 1 Curragh Cup.

The three-year-old and fellow Galileo horse Grosvenor Square set the pace in a race where top-class dual-purpose performer Vauban and Tower Of London dominated the market. Also, in the O’Brien stable, he set up a 20-length lead and was still at least eight ahead coming to the final furlong. Meanwhile, a long way behind Grosvenor Square, Tower Of London was easing past Valmont and swiftly made up the ground. He won with his head in his chest. Wow, such mastery of his trade!

There was a future potential opponent for You Got To Me and Concede in the Hughie Morrison-trained four-year-old Mistral Star, on show later on the Newmarket card. Mistral Star took on a sizeable field in a ten-furlong Listed race and smoothly raced away from them. The homebred will be pushed quite close to a 110 rating after this and Morrison knows just how to bring the Helena Springfield fillies to their optimum potential. She looks sure to stay further on this evidence.

Now to, for me, the happiest Saturday result of all. On Thursday I sat in a Gaucho restaurant in London’s West End, while this publication’s editor showed us three a recent video of the Geegeez.co.uk chaser Sure Touch in a schooling session before taking up his Saturday target in the centenary Summer Plate Chase at Market Rasen.

I had to agree with Matt that it was “sensational”, especially for a horse with only five previous chases on his card for Olly Murphy. As he was winning the big race, attended by my York races landlord Jim Cannon and a couple of my fellow guests, all of whom are in this syndicate, I’d forgotten all about it.

Contacting Matt later in the afternoon, the drinks had already been flowing. I don’t suppose any of the numerous errors that no doubt will be sprinkled within this offering will be picked up, so I better check again. [They have been 😉  - Ed.]

Then yesterday, the team were on the mark at Newton Abbot with the 4/1 favourite Konigin Isabella, trained by Anthony Honeyball. Rumours that Jim paid for the helicopter to take the team from Lincolnshire to Devon are apparently untrue.

The moral of this epistle is clear. If you have a couple of hundred grand or so, scour the autumn maiden juvenile races for potential. If you want to join a syndicate, have a look at Geegeez.co.uk. Other syndicates and agents – some of whom we often mention here – are available.

- TS

 

A day in the life of the Tote Placepot

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In this article, I will look at how the Tote Placepot panned out on a randomly chosen day this year and what led me to research it, writes Dave Renham. I have chosen May 1st, not for any other reason than it was the first of the month and was not too long ago. I wanted to select the day randomly rather than trawling through some results and focusing on a day when there was a considerable placepot dividend or two. Punters who regularly attempt the Placepot know there are plenty of meetings with low dividends, but the fact that some huge payouts do occur makes it a bet worth considering. In fact, the average payout for the Placepot is usually between £400 to £500 in any given year.

As most readers will know, the Placepot is a bet you can place at any race meeting, and it works by choosing a selection or selections in the first six races on the card of the relevant meeting. The aim is to have a selected horse or horses to finish in the placings in each of the six races. It is important to appreciate that the number of placings per race depends on the number of race runners and, in some cases, whether it is a handicap or a non-handicap. The finishing positions that constitute a place in any race in the Placepot are as follows:

2 to 4 runners – 1st

5 to 7 runners – 1st and 2nd

8 to 15 runners – 1st, 2nd and 3rd

Non-handicap 16 or more runners – 1st, 2nd and 3rd

Handicap 16 or more runners – 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th

If a selection becomes a non-runner, your choice in that race moves to the favourite. You can choose ‘favourite’ in your selection process rather than a specific horse if you’d like – that is an option. It is also worth sharing that if you are on the favourite and there are joint- or co-favourites, the one with the lowest racecard number becomes your selection.

Selecting just one horse in each of the six races will create one betting line. You can, of course, choose more than one horse in a race if you wish to spread the risk, which will increase the number of betting lines. Most seasoned Placepot punters mix up the number of selections for each race to widen the net, as it were.

For those using permutations, calculating the outlay (cost) of your Placepot bet is relatively straightforward. Ultimately, you need to know how many selections you have in each race to determine your betting lines. To do this, multiply those six figures together. Hence, if you chose two horses in three races and one horse for the other three races, you will create 8 betting lines (see below).

2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 1 = 8 lines

The cost of the bet will depend on your unit stake – if your unit stake is £1, then the cost will be £8:

8 lines x £1.00 unit stake = £8.00 total stake

You can adjust the unit stake to suit. For example, you may want to use a unit stake of 25p instead, which means the overall cost of the bet would be £2.00 (8 x 25p).

Placepot dividends are paid to a £1 stake. Hence, if the Placepot dividend is, say, £100, and you have one winning line with a unit stake of 25p, your dividend would be a quarter of £100 because you are using a quarter of a £1 stake. Your payout in this scenario would be £25 (£100 divided by 4).

For any Placepot player, though, you need to be aware of the excellent Tix software, a staking optimisation tool built by Matt and Nigel Dove. The Tix software gives far more scope for perming your selections using different stakes, should you wish. Find out more about Tix here.

The upside of the Tote Placepot is that it is a ‘pool’ bet, which means you are essentially pitting your wits against other people rather than the bookmakers. Also, a fair number of Placepot bets per day are struck at the racecourse by racegoers who are simply having a fun bet whilst on a day out. Therefore, I feel I should have a significant edge regarding my betting ‘opponents’.

However, before getting too carried away, the bet has a downside: the Tote takes out 27% of the money put into the Placepot betting pot. Hence, if £100,000 is bet on a specific Placepot, only £73,000 of this is available to win. It is essentially like a Bookmaker’s overround where they build in their profit margin.

 

OK, with that explainer done, let me share the Tote Placepot data for the five UK meetings that raced on May 1st:

 

 

Overall, the day was not the most productive one for Placepot players with three meagre payouts. The payouts are calculated by dividing the Adjusted Final Pool Size by the remaining winning units. Hence, the Ascot dividend of £139.90 comes from £85,632.55 divided by 612.02.

I want to analyse one of these Placepot meetings in detail—the biggest one on the day at Ascot.

Race 1 – 1.10

This was a six-runner Class 2 conditions race for 2yos. Hence, two Placepot places were up for grabs (1st and 2nd). Below shows how many units went on each horse, what percentage of the pool that was, the Starting Price of each runner, and their Finishing Position.

 

 

The horses in red were the two Placepot ‘placers’. Interestingly, the most ‘pooled’ money was not on the favourite, Diligently; it was on the second favourite, Rock Hunter. Because of this, slightly more of the pot remained than one might have expected. Hence, £45,939.17 was left in the Placepot pool as we entered race 2. This equated to around 39% of the Adjusted Final Pool.

Looking at the % splits for each horse, we can also see that Sex on Fire had more than double the amount of money placed on him than Atherstone Warrior (11.1% of the pool versus 5.33%) despite their prices being virtually the same at 17/2 and 9/1. I do not have a bulletproof reason why this might have been the case, as you would expect the amounts on each horse to be closer to each other. However, data on any 2yo race is limited at this time of the year. In this particular contest, you had two debutants, three horses having their second career start, and one having their third. Hence, even the most seasoned punter finds getting a confident handle on this race more difficult. That is probably part of why there was such a discrepancy between the two horses. I am guessing there was a jockey factor in play, too, as Hoyle Doyle was riding Sex on Fire. She is a famous jockey, and I suspect some occasional Placepot punters would have seen her name and simply based their judgment on that. Another could be how their prices fluctuated during the day, but more of that discussion later.

Race 2 – 1.40

This was a Listed race with only five runners, so again, there would be two ‘placers’ counting. Here are the splits:

 

 

Again, the SPs do not quite match up with the % of pool figures. The second favourite, Docklands, had the most pool units, 3% more than the actual favourite. Likewise, there were two horses at 4/1, and there was a 6% difference between the two, equating to around 2700 units.

This was the second race in which the favourite had failed to place. Generally, better dividends occur when favourites have a poor day in terms of placing. Hopefully, this makes perfect sense, as favourites will be popular with Placepot pickers.

Race 3 – 2.15

This was another five-runner affair; this time, a Group 3 contest. Let me share the data for this one:

 

 

This time, the favourite comfortably had the most units staked on him, but again, the market leader failed to place. With the 11/1 outsider coming second and having a meagre 1.55% of the pooled money (354.82 units), this result increased the chances of a big payout. 78% of the staked units before this race were lost, leaving a pot of £5255.03.

Race 4 – 2.50

A 10-runner Group 3 sprint over 6f was the next action on the day, and a more extensive field of 10 runners went to post. Three to count this time, and here are the figures:

 

 

This race was not helpful in terms of a chance of being a very big Placepot payday. The two horses with comfortably the most units staked finished second and third. The 28/1 outsider Jakaiaro finished a neck away in 4th. If that had reversed placings with the third, it would have caused a serious dent in the remaining ‘pot’ and increased the chances significantly of a big payout. So, there was just under £3100 left in the pot with two races to go.

Race 5 – 3.25

An eight-runner sprint handicap was the penultimate Placepot race at Ascot that day. Here is how the remaining units were split between the runners:

 

 

The favourite placed for the second race running and, despite being 7/2, had over 37% of the remaining betting units. This could have been nearer 20-25% of the remaining units based on the actual SP, which again would have increased the final dividend considerably. Based on the upcoming Race 6 results, if the favourite Woolhampton had secured 25% of the remaining Race 5 units rather than 37.48%, the final dividend would have increased by around 22%. That’s significant. However, it highlights that we are dealing with unit sizes for individual runners that can fluctuate perhaps more than one would expect, given the so-called ‘true’ chance of the horse placing based on the SP.

Race 6 – 4.00

The second division of the handicap sprint was the final race as far as the Placepot was concerned. Again, we saw eight runners go to post. There were 2078.18 units remaining before the race:

 

 

The favourite failed, and the two horses with the most units (top two in the market) could not place. 29.45% of the units of the remaining units survived, leaving £612.02 left in the pot from the initial £85,632.55. The Placepot payout was a reasonable, if not huge, £139.90 to a £1 stake.

Being basically a ‘numbers man’, it is interesting for me to scrutinise each of these six races in some depth. What struck me was the correlation between the individual horses’ SPs and the units staked on these horses. It certainly was not always a positive correlation in line with expectations.

I decided to graph some Ascot data by looking at the individual horses’ SPs and the % of Placepot pool units staked on these horses. It shows all horses with SPs of 6.0 decimal odds (5/1) or shorter:

 

 

The graph does slope from the top left to the bottom right, but it is far from smooth and has plenty of outliers/anomalies.

Here is a tabular format with the exact %s (to 1 dp) for the number crunchers out there. I have highlighted in red what I perceive to be the main outliers:

 

 

As you can see at the top of the table, we have three different horses priced up at 3.0 (2/1), but one has 38.8% of the money in the pool, and the other two are much lower at 28% and 26.2%. Arguably, there is an even more significant differential when we look at the three 6.0 (5/1) runners with pool %s ranging from 5.4% to 18%.

You will get fluctuations when analysing price versus pool %, but I must admit, I was initially surprised when I looked at these Ascot results. Of course, the data is limited to just six races, but even so, I did expand my digging to the other four meetings that day and found that of all the horses priced 2/1, the lowest pool % for one horse (Cajetan) stood at 22.3%, and the highest was 38.8% (Sweet William) at Ascot. Then, I looked at some bigger price brackets than I did for Ascot and found that two horses priced 6/1 (7.0) were poles apart when it came to their pool %s – one had 20% of the units in the pool, the other just 7.4%.

Now, it should be stated that prices of horses often change from the early odds to their final SPs, so I surmised that this must be a significant contributory factor in this wide pool % of variances we have seen from such limited data. Hence, I continued to do some more digging. I looked at the two 2/1 SP shots I mentioned in the above paragraph (Cajetan and Sweet William) to see their Early Odds (e.g., their odds in the morning). Lo and behold, the 38.8% pool horse Sweet William was 15/8, a notch under the 2/1 SP, and the 22.3% pool horse Cajetan was a much bigger price ‘early doors’ at 9/2. In this comparison, therefore, it seems likely the early odds were the main reason behind the Placepot pool % variance. So, it got me thinking... obviously!

I thought it might be worthwhile to check out some horses whose prices remained the same during the day. I decided to check out some horses with early odds of 2/1 and, also a final Starting Price of 2/1. I expect these runners should be with a few percent of each other in terms of pool percentages. This type of research must be done slowly, race by race, so I have only looked at the last 30 qualifiers (at the time of writing). That should give us a fairly good overview. Here is what I found:

 

 

As you can see, we still have some significant variances. The highest figure was 47.3%, more than double the lowest figure of 22.1%. OK, they were the ‘extremes’, but even if you ignore, let’s say, the highest and lowest three figures, there is still a difference of over 10% from highest to lowest (39.4% versus 29.1%). The average figure for all 30 horses is 33.8%, which is what I would have expected.

So, what does that tell us? Clearly, fluctuations in ‘expected’ pool %s will occur regularly. Is it possible to pinpoint patterns and predict likely pool %s for some horses? That is the 64-million-dollar question. My guess is that the make-up of all the prices within each race plays a key role, not just the individual prices themselves. I am sure there are other factors, and I have some ideas, but that is for another time (and a huge chunk of research).

Of course, some punters may argue that the important thing from their perspective is that they get at least one horse placed in each race and have a slice of the Placepot dividend. That is a fair point, but I’m guessing you would rather win one pot in ten if the dividend is, say, £5000, compared with winning five pots in ten, all paying under £20. We could all win more ‘pots’ if we stacked our selections with all horses from the top end of the betting. However, any such ‘wins’ will produce low dividends and give you no chance of securing a long-term profit. In fact, you will be haemorrhaging money! You need a better strategy than that to win big at the Placepot!

**

Summary

It's time to wind up this first foray into the Tote Placepot. I appreciate that I have inadvertently created more questions than answers. Still, I hope you might now have an increased appreciation of the Placepot and how much there is to the whole conundrum. For me, it’s time to do some more research into this Tote pool bet, and I will share that with you next time.

-DR

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