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By the time you read this, Royal Ascot will be just days away, writes David Renham. It is one of my favourite meetings of the year, and I am guessing that will be the same for many readers. In this article, I will delve into Royal Ascot data going back 15 years (2009-2023) in preparation for the upcoming festival. Any profit/loss has been calculated to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate. My focus will be exclusively on Royal Ascot's mile handicap races.
There are four one mile handicaps scheduled for this year’s meeting: the Royal Hunt Cup, Britannia, Sandringham, and the relatively new Kensington Palace. The first three are run on the straight course; the Kensington Palace transpires on the round course. These races tend to have big fields, especially the straight-track ones. Going back to 2009, 41 of the 49 mile handicaps at the Royal meeting have seen at least twenty runners go to post. Only one of these took place on the round course.
Market Rank
Firstly, let us look at the performance of different positions in the market. Any ‘joints’ have been combined, so when it says ‘favourites’, it includes joint favourites. I have added each way percentages as many punters bet each way in big field handicaps:
It is interesting to note how well favourites and second favourites have fared, scoring in 17 of the 49 races. This equates to winning 34.7% of the races from just 8.7% of the total runners. If you focused on clear favourites, their results improved to 9 wins from 43 (SR 20.9%) for a profit of £6.75 (ROI +15.7%). Betting to BSP would have slightly improved matters to +£10.02 (ROI +23.3%). From a place perspective, it certainly looks worth considering putting either the favourite or second favourite in any placepot perm.
Horses outside the top ten in the betting have a poor record, as you would expect. Big-priced winners will occasionally pop up, but losses of over 65p in the £ for these outsiders do not inspire me too much to look beyond the more obvious. The biggest-priced winner has been 40/1 (Rising Star in the Kensington Palace in 2022), and she is the only winner from 357 horses that have started 40/1 or bigger.
Race Type Last Time Out (LTO)
Looking at the type of race these runners ran in last time out has uncovered a potential edge as the table below shows:
Horses that contested a handicap last time have a much better record than those who raced in a non-handicap. Regarding Betfair SP returns, LTO handicap runners lost less than 1p in the £, while LTO non-handicap runners lost a whopping 53p in the £.
Beaten Distance Last Time Out
My next port of call is to look at LTO performance, focusing on how far horses were beaten. The graph below looks first at the win strike rate (LTO winners are grouped with horses that were beaten less than a length):
Winners/horses beaten less than a length LTO have certainly got the better of the ‘battle’ from a win strike rate perspective. How does that equate to returns to SP? Here are those findings:
We see a good correlation here with the previous graph—losses of around 13p in the £ for LTO winners/horses beaten less than a length. In fact, at BSP, this 13% loss became a 12.5% profit. In contrast, there have been enormous losses for horses that were beaten one or more lengths in that most recent spin.
Finally, for this section, a look at the A/E indices:
There is a further positive correlation here, and all the data gathered points to keeping a close eye on any LTO runner that won or ran the winner to less than a length.
Market Rank LTO
Whenever I am interested in backing a horse, I always look back at their last run's price or market position. Indeed, personally, I often look at their previous three or four races in terms of odds/market rank. Hence, I thought seeing what I could find for these Ascot races would be worthwhile. Here are my findings:
As you can see, the percentage play is to be backing horses in the top five of the betting LTO rather than those 6th or higher on their most recent outing. They are better value; they have more chance of winning and more chance of getting placed. Regarding BSP returns, horses first to fifth in the betting last time would have lost you 13p in the £, and those 6th+ would have stung you for 41p in the £.
Draw Position
The draw in big field straight course races at Royal Ascot has been discussed in past articles, including this one. Arguably, it can be the most important factor, especially if one section of the track seems to be at a significant disadvantage. Here is some draw analysis of the last nine Royal Ascot straight track mile handicap races, covering the years 2021 to 2023:
Taking all nine races in combination, a draw in the top half (middle to high) has tended to be favoured.
There are other big field handicaps run at the meeting, including the Wokingham over 6f and the Buckingham Palace raced over 7f. Last year, both these races displayed a higher draw bias, so taking these two races in conjunction with the three mile straight track handicaps, you have to conclude that higher draws generally held sway at the 2023 Royal meeting.
What will happen this year? Well, that is the 64-million-dollar question. Only time will tell...
Running Style
Onto an area that is finally starting to get more attention from the racing press, and it is one I have been championing and studying for a long time. For this section, I have focussed on the forty 1-mile handicaps with the most extensive fields (20+) run on the straight course, contested between 2009 and 2023.
21 of the 40 races (52.5%) were won by a horse that was held up early in the race. Hold-up horses account for 36% of all the runners, so they have won around 1.45 times more than they statistically should. It should also be noted that hold-up horses have been twice as likely to get placed compared to prominent runners.
I thought comparing the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) for all running styles in these 20 runner+ straight course races would be useful. Here are the splits:
Based on the data shared previously, it is no surprise to see hold-up horses comfortably doing best.
As we have already seen, these races contain plenty of big-priced runners/outsiders, so below I have narrowed down the run style data and homed in on those runners that started at 20/1 or shorter. Did the PRB figures project a similar trend? Here are the splits:
We see the same pattern as before. Hence, looking at both sets of figures, the ‘ideal’ type will be a horse that comes from off the pace and delivers a challenge late, be it from a position near the back early or from a more midfield sit.
**
Summary
These big field mile handicaps certainly seem to have some general trends that we can apply to all four races. This is even though all four have differences (e.g. sex of runners, age restrictions, etc). In terms of the general trends, favourites and second favourites perform above expectations; last time winners or those beaten less than a length have proved much better value than those beaten LTO by one length or more; horses that ran in a handicap LTO have outperformed those that ran previously in a non-handicap; horses that were in the top five of the betting LTO are better betting propositions than those who were 6th or bigger in the betting.
As regards the big field straight course handicaps, we can add that a higher draw has been preferable recently, but it is important to keep an open mind. In terms of run style, the winners will typically race mid-pack or towards the back early.
-DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/RoyalAscot_marco.jpg320839Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-06-10 18:02:332024-06-10 18:02:33Statistical Guide to Royal Ascot 2024 Mile Handicaps
There’s just over a week to Royal Ascot, therefore we’ve an extra few days to fill this year because of the vagaries of Easter, writes Tony Stafford. Not much happened in the last week, and I doubt too much more of any great moment will occur in the coming one, so we can concentrate of some of the more obvious ills (or rather frustrations, to me) of the sport.
Without too much investigation I’ve got a gripe about a few things. Sunday racing, Race Planning, handicap marks and unfathomable stewards’ decisions are all fertile places to start. Then maybe after examining an example of each over recent days, we can see whether that constitutes an article. I hope so because otherwise I’ve Nothing To Say.
Let’s start with Sunday racing. The experiment with Sunday evening cards was abruptly dropped over the past couple of weeks. High summer is here – at least the sun shone yesterday where I am – and Saturday proved an attraction around the country.
The stands were, as one Racing TV presenter in the north, so either Catterick or Beverley, “heaving”, and the gogglebox pictures confirmed the same at both tracks and at Goodwood.
Mick Fitzgerald reminded Sky Racing viewers on Saturday, that there are no stands at Bangor to be “heaving”, but the bank was extremely well populated. That brought to me a time when Bangor, as the last UK track I had still to visit two decades ago, was the scene of a runner in which I had an interest.
Noted stud owner and youngstock producer Richard Kent kindly told me he had saved me two badges “for my box in the main stand. I can’t get there, but I’ll make sure they look after you royally.”
They do that anyway there, in a ground-floor building next to the paddock. Richard was there actually, to bask in my embarrassment. Anyway, with the first sight of sun around the country, the punters, for all the extravagant cost of going racing, were out in force.
As I mentioned when I started, the BHA promise had been for enhanced Sundays. Goodwood yesterday lived up to that with a card that should have ensured another good attendance, but anyone else other than in the south of the country who wanted to watch live racing would have been stymied.
According to Google maps, Perth, the nearest and only other horse racing – point-to-points apart – being staged, is 511 miles away. Even from Scotland’s two biggest cities, Edinburgh (47 miles away) and Glasgow (62 miles) the one-way drive takes around an hour and a half. Better than nothing I suppose, that is unless you don’t like summer jumping.
Goodwood offered just over a quarter of a million pounds on a strong card, designated a Premium Raceday and I was gratified to see a selling race for juveniles offering a £10k first prize. The disappearance of so many selling races down the years has been a major negative.
What was the problem of owners having a win and getting a nice few quid on then having the option of getting rid of an unwanted horse or trying to buy him back in the auction? My dad – I was stuck in the DT office - once got bid up to a record 14 grand to buy back my horse Bachagha after he easily won a selling hurdle by a distance at Fontwell. Isidore Kerman, then owner of Fontwell and the Kybo horses – as a boy he was always advised “Keep Your Bowels Open” – didn’t flinch from telling Dad, about the record not his ablutions, so afterwards.
My first ever winner was at Beverley, one of my favourite tracks. Charlie Kilgour was a moderate animal I’d bought via a friend of a friend from Alan Spence, probably then still at primary school it was so long ago. I always wondered who Charlie was, but Alan told me years later he didn’t have a clue: “He was already named when I got him,” he said.
Ridden by 7lb claimer Simon Whitworth and trained by Rod Simpson, Charlie won. I backed him, got the prize money and the selling price. A day of days. Not being one to wish ill of anyone I was delighted when, for the new connections, a very truncated career ended without a win. I’d like to think I’d be more charitable nowadays. What I do believe, though, is that often the action in the ring after a seller enlivens proceedings and I’d love to see a lot more tracks including sellers in their cards.
Goodwood have made a big effort and there’s nothing better than a day on the downs close to the Solent which can be seen on a bright day high up from the back of the stands – albeit away from the action.
I mentioned Race Planning. I’m involved with a so-far maiden three-year-old rated 74 after three runs at two but, for one reason or another, he hasn’t managed to get back on the track in 2024.
His trainer seems happy that at last we’re enjoying a clear run towards a race, and he has been looking for one for three-year-olds only at around 1m2f. On the Monday after Royal Ascot – Eureka, there’s a 0-75 three-year-olds only over ten furlongs at Windsor. Wait a minute, there’s also a 0-75 three-year-olds only half an hour later over 1m3f and a few yards! Take Your Pick. At a time when it’s very difficult to find any race that suits, here’s two within half an hour with the same conditions.
Depending on field size, couldn’t they bring the two fields together, move the stalls to a position midway between and run for double the money?
A senior trainer said recently in a conversation with me that the RCA holds all the cards and the BHA is helpless to argue with them. Maybe that’s the problem.
Now to handicapping. It’s always been a subjective thing and some trainers seem to be more skilled at keeping their horses’ true and potential ability under wraps as they move them through the grades.
Sir Mark Prescott was always the master at getting favourable initial marks for his younger horses, then when putting them up in distance. Sometimes, he would win four or five in midsummer when the fields started to thin out, before challenging for important handicaps or even Pattern races in the autumn.
One trainer has recently been enjoying Prescott-like spectacular achievements but with an animal of a markedly different profile. Phil McEntee’s five-year-old mare Jacquelina had already raced 26 times (two wins) before her sequence started, that after amazingly having run 14 times for one win between late October and early March.
Jacquelina’s mark had been largely unchanged throughout the period, remaining in the mid-50’s, and two narrow wins in her first two runs back on turf early in May gave little indication of the explosion that was to follow. Also, the implications for at least one horse that had never raced within 150 miles of her would prove irritating at least.
In the second of her recent wins, she beat Anglesey Lad, who was receiving 10lb (8lb of that weight for age), by a neck. Her mark went up by 2lb, his by 1lb. Then Jacquelina took off. Thirteen days ago at Brighton, she carried a 5lb penalty to an easy two-length success. Three days later, this time under a double penalty, her weight of 10st 6lb (less daughter Grace’s 3lb allowance) made no difference, the mare winning this time by more than three lengths.
Now running off another new mark of 70, three days ago at Thirsk, she probably would have made it five in a row but for Grace’s dropping the reins at a crucial stage and she was caught close home. Not to be deflected by her latest rating of 75 coming into play, McEntee took her on to Chepstow. There, Jacquelina had no trouble in easily winning an apprentice race, Grace’s claim keeping her weight below 10st 10lb!
Her progress makes Phil McEntee an early challenger for some kind of trainer’s award and no doubt owner Trevor Johnson and breeder Nicola Kent, Richard’s sister, know where their votes would go if they had one!
I had to look to see how many more races Phil had in mind for this amazing mare who no doubt will go up a further 10lb tomorrow. With no penalty to be incurred for the latest apprentice success, surprisingly, McEntee hasn’t made any. Slipping there, Phil.
But if you like the look of Jacquelina’s form, you can instead wait until Thursday at Yarmouth and Anglesey Lad. As I said earlier, just 1lb higher than when beaten by the mare at Brighton on May 21, he runs in a modest handicap. Anglesey Lad has appeared once since, when beaten by 1.75 lengths by Edgewater Drive at Carlisle. That margin should equate to 5lb at the time-honoured equation of 3lb to a length in sprints.
Edgewater Drive was instead raised 7lb without any action deemed necessary for Anglesey Lad. When Wilf Storey questioned the handicapper, she cited the Jacquelina element, even though she hadn’t done anything with Anglesey Lad’s mark, while the mare he had got so close to kept winning.
My last gripe is on behalf of Laura Muir, Edgewater Drive’s jockey. She came home a nose in front after a straight-long duel with the runner up in a race last week at Wolverhampton.
Even though her mount Prince Hector never touched the runner-up High Court Judge (maybe an omen?) and only deviated marginally in the closing stages, the result was overturned, much to the amazement of all the media and television pundits on the day. To add to what seems an unfair verdict, Paula also got a two-day ban, an appeal about which is being funded by the Professional Jockeys’ Association.
How many times have you seen big race finishes where one horse carries the other across the track and the verdict is left alone. Having watched it a few times, and all the other matters I’ve touched upon, I wonder why this great sport wants to shoot itself in the foot in so many ways. Apart from that I’ve Nothing To Say!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Bangor_MainStand.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2024-06-10 07:18:112024-06-10 07:18:11Monday Musings: Nothing To Say
In recent weeks, I have been looking at ‘exotic’ bets, writing two articles on the trifecta/tricast and one on the Exacta/Computer Straight Forecast (CSF), writes Dave Renham. This is the second part of looking at the two 1-2 bets of the Exacta and Straight Forecast.
In the first article, Exacta looked like the better option, coming out on top nearly 62% of the time. In addition, the average payout was bigger for the Tote bet, and virtually every course saw the Exacta outperform the CSF. It was also noted that the edge for the Exacta increased as the field size grew. For example, races of 17 or more runners saw a 57% edge for the Exacta based on average payouts. In this article, I will continue my research with the same six-month data set to determine other valuable facts.
Courses Revisited
In the first article, I compared individual courses in terms of which of the two bets came out on top more often. I did this for races at both National Hunt courses and Flat ones. This time, I will compare the average payouts of the two bets, starting with the flat. There must be at least 30 qualifying races to be considered:
The Exacta ‘beat’ the CSF 34-3 – the three ‘wins’ for the CSF are highlighted in red (Brighton, Chester, and Hamilton).
In the first article, it was noted that the edge at Irish courses in terms of average payouts/dividends was nearly double that of UK ones, and this is borne out again with some significant differentials in qualifying Irish courses. Of the six that made the list, five of them – Cork, the Curragh, Dundalk, Gowran Park and Leopardstown all saw the Exacta’s edge standing at over 25%. On the UK side, Ascot had a considerable edge over the Exacta, which was expected considering the Royal Ascot stats I shared last time. York, Doncaster and Newbury were the next best three.
To the NH course averages now. As before, to qualify, a course must have had 30+ qualifying races:
The Exacta has come out well on top again, with just three courses (in red) seeing a ‘win’ for the CSF. There are very positive Exacta figures at Punchestown and Cheltenham, while 15 courses saw an edge for the Exacta of over 20%.
The Kilbeggan stats caught my eye immediately, where the CSF average was nearly double the Exacta. However, digging into the course results, I noticed a race I had not previously noted where the Exacta had not won. It is the only race of 6000 odd races I’ve analysed where no punter chose the correct 1-2 combo. The CSF paid a massive £3206.34 as a 66/1 horse beat a 200/1 shot into second place. That explains it!
Day of the Week
While researching this, I speculated whether the day of the week made a difference. For example, I wondered if Saturday, as generally the busiest day, would potentially offer the Exacta more of an edge. I also wondered if the reverse was true on Sundays. On average, Sunday is the quietest day regarding the number of meetings, so I hypothesised that the Exacta edge would be less. Therefore, let me compare the seven days of the week to which of the two bets came out on top more often. Here is what the numbers told me:
So, my Sunday theory proved correct, but not the Saturday one. Indeed, Saturday was only the 6th ‘best’ day for the Exacta. Monday and Tuesday saw the Exacta ‘beat’ the CSF more often, albeit there is not a massive difference between the best day of Tuesday and the worst of Sunday.
Price of winner
I wanted to see the effect of the winner's price on which of the two bets came out on top more often. This is graphed below using Industry SP price bands:
The graph shows that the shorter the winner's price, the more competitive the CSF was. Indeed, the CSF edged it for horses priced Evens (2.0) or shorter. However, once the price got to 100/30 (4.33) or bigger, there was only one winner, and it was a comfortable one at that. For those who prefer looking at these comparisons in a table, here are the same figures from the graph.
Once the winner's price hits 17/2 (9.5) or bigger, then the Exacta has ‘won’ more than three times as often as the CSF.
Strongest ways to utilise the Exacta edge
In the two articles, Exacta has had the edge over the CSF in most circumstances. We have just seen that this edge is very strong when the winning price hits 17/2 (9.5) or bigger, and in the first article, I shared the fact that the bigger the field, the better as far as the Exacta goes. What about combining the two? Hence, what were the results when the winning SP was 9.5 or bigger, and the number of runners was 17 or more? Well, I can share that with you now. There were 108 races where both parameters were met, and firstly, here are the results in terms of which of the two bets came out on top more often.
The Exacta beat the CSF in 102 of the 108 races, equating to a percentage of close to 95. That is somewhat one-sided!
A look at the average payouts now over these 108 races and, as expected, the Exacta’s figure is much higher:
Under these circumstances, the Exacta has had a 67% edge in payouts/dividends.
Hence, if you fancy a horse destined to start around 17/2 or bigger in a big field race and want to predict a 1-2, you’d be mad to choose the CSF based on this evidence.
Cutting the number of runners to 14 or more plus a winning SP of 9.5+ still gives you a massive edge, with the Exacta beating the CSF in 254 of these 285 qualifying races. That equates to 89.1% of races where the Exacta prevailed.
I did one more tweak to this runner/SP combo, looking at 14+ runner races where the winner was priced 6/1 (7.0) or bigger. Thanks to 366 wins from 410 races, the Exacta win percentage over its counterpart is maintained at 89%, with the CSF prevailing on just 44 occasions.
Before finishing, let me share one more useful nugget about utilising the Exacta edge. This comes when examining the results in terms of where the favourite finished. The table below shows which of the two bets came out on top more often.
Clearly, having the favourite in second in an Exacta is a good strategy, especially when attempting to beat the CSF. The percentage edge for Exacta over the CSF when the favourite places second is just under 30%.
**
Summary
The second article confirms the findings from the first: that is, the Tote option, the Exacta, has a solid overall edge over the CSF. Considering both articles, this edge increases most in races with bigger fields and when the winner’s SP is bigger (specifically 14+ runners, 6/1+ winning SP gives an 89% 'win' for Exacta over CSF).
The Exacta's edge is also stronger in Irish races and when the favourite finishes second.
Finally, the eagle-eyed may have noticed that no data was shared for Haydock or Sandown. This was, unfortunately, due to an issue with my databases and spreadsheets. I need to manually add the data for both of these courses when I have time, and when I do, I’ll report back in the comments. Looking at the results I have (about 35% of them), both Sandown and Haydock offer a decent edge for the Exacta in line with other courses of a similar profile.
-DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Enable_CrystalOcean_KingGeorge2019_830x320.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-06-04 14:52:072024-06-04 14:52:07Comparing Exacta and Computer Straight Forecast: Part 2
Who is Celia? What is she? Or rather where is she? The one-time lady amateur rider and walk-on or pub-customer extra in Eastenders (and other TV series) played a massive part in my life, writes Tony Stafford. I’m sure she had/has no idea and even the Internet didn’t help me track her down. But Saturday relegated her to the second half of this two-in-one article. You’ll see why shortly.
Having made almost fanatically-extravagant judgment based on his two-year-old performances – the best two-year-old I’ve ever seen, I suggested – the abject failure of City Of Troy in the 2000 Guineas five weeks ago could surely only bring an early hasty rush off to stud. That would have been the normal obvious course of action.
But then his trainer is Aidan O’Brien. Never did he – outwardly, at least – question his horse, just himself for not putting in the required amount of tough work into a potential Classic winner in the weeks leading up to Newmarket.
So, they gathered at Epsom, for some reason suggesting the draw in stall one was a big disadvantage. Why? Didn’t Oath win from there in 1999, causing your correspondent and the Henry Cecil/ Thoroughbred Corporation horse’s groom to dance around in delight. We’d watched his win on the tiny TV screen on the jockeys’ room glass wall just behind the unsaddling circle that has been home to the greats: Nijinsky, Shergar and Galileo himself in 2001, the first of ten winners for Aidan and the Coolmore partners.
Only two of those came before Camelot in 2012, a ten-year gap for O’Brien from High Chaparral in the year after Galileo, but eight of the next 13 giving testimony, if any was needed, of the trainer’s uniqueness.
Two of the Coolmore ownership group also had a bonus win with Pour Moi in 2011, trained by Andre Fabre, putting Sue Magnier (the great Vincent’s daughter) and Michael Tabor ahead of the trainer as the winning-most pair in the race’s 240-year history.
By the time Aidan has finished, he will have set records never to be broken - of that I am sure - as by the time it could be possible, racing will be staged on AI tracks with AI horses - with no trainer or jockey in sight.
First the race. Ryan Moore on the only lightly-backed favourite (3/1 about a horse that was odds-on for the Guineas, “unbelievable”) as Jonno Mills of the Rabbah (Godolphin-lite) operation reflected afterwards, though not before – was allowed to start slowly.
In all his races – the three as a juvenile and the Guineas, he raced towards or at the front. Now, tackling another half-mile, he had to learn on the job, coming from behind as his stablemates Euphoric and the previously unbeaten Los Angeles set a strong pace.
He came down the hill nicely, switched inside early in the straight and had the speed to stride through gaps where an ordinary staying horse might have been less malleable.
Passing Los Angeles between the two and one-furlong poles, he was quickly clear and just needed to be kept going by Ryan (Derby number four for him) to remain almost three lengths ahead of the Bill Gredley/James Fanshawe Lingfield Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly.
Third was Los Angeles, six lengths in the end behind his stable-mate and then the two Ahmad Al Sheikh horses, one each for Andrew Balding and Owen Burrows. Sixth, having come from miles back but then looking like he didn't quite get home, was Roger Teal’s Dancing Gemini who must be a banker for a big prize in a Group 1 over ten furlongs.
Bill Gredley, at 91, had to have been hopeful as his colt came there cantering, but Ryan on his inside was always finding that little more speed. Still, it was great that Rab Havlin, parachuted in to replace his Lingfield rider Callum Shepherd, enjoyed such a wonderful ride in a Derby.
Havlin, so often the back-up to Frankie Dettori – did we miss him as he won a couple of races across the Atlantic? I think not - gave his mount an impeccable ride through. Rider was as flawless as his always flamboyant owner had looked resplendent in the paddock in the only bright red trousers on view. You’d probably have had to scour the well-patronised funfair areas on the inside of the track to find a pair to match them!
As I’ve mentioned before, Bill Gredley started life in Poplar, East London, not far from Michael Tabor’s birthplace in Forest Gate – Stratford coming in between. Joining Michael as ever, were his racecourse pals, all of whom he has known since the 1980’s at least, including Maurice Manasseh, even with him for the Florida Derby that Thunder Gulch achieved under 'Money' Mike Smith for D. Wayne Lukas in 1995, before adding the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers later in the year.
Just two years later, having been (as ever, shrewdly as it turns out) identified by John Magnier as a potential partner as the old Robert Sangster/ Vincent O’Brien era at Ballydoyle/Coolmore was starting to unravel, the two-man ownership team won successive 2000 Guineas with Entrepreneur and King Of Kings. I’ll never forget the former as my eldest grandson was born at 3 a.m. the next morning less than an hour’s drive away.
The succession at Coolmore seems firmly in place. MV Magnier does most of the recruiting and brother JP also has plenty to say behind the scenes. John and Sue’s son-in-law David Wachman, a highly successful trainer before retiring as a younger man, is also in the back-up team. David’s young family are all outstanding in the field of equestrianism, so much so that Grandpa John prefers watching their exploits than some of even the biggest race days his horses contest.
Derrick Smith, delighted to be in attendance on Saturday, as he had been in Louisville when Sierra Leone gave the partners a close second on the same evening as the Guineas debacle, has son Paul and enthusiastic grandsons – all there on Saturday - to pass on the baton when the time comes, as it inevitably will.
Meanwhile, also on Saturday, I detected a new element to the possible Tabor succession.
Over the many years I’ve known him, I hasten to say, no more than to chat for the few minutes our paths would have crossed in various winner’s enclosures, Ashley Tabor-King has been almost distracted, enjoying his father’s success but more involved in developing his interest in the music industry. His mother Doreen is a noted supporter of emerging classical musicians, and while Ashley has been largely into pop music, the influence is clear.
Having successfully turned the Global Group, of which he is boss, into the biggest in commercial radio in the UK he has also overseen its many charitable contributions especially to younger disadvantaged people. Now, though, he seems to be taking rather more interest in the sport.
On Saturday, before the Dash, he was looking over the balcony through binoculars aiming to get the focus right, asking where was the start? I pointed back up the track and said: “You’re looking the true professional, can you give me a commentary?”
Then, around an hour later, when the owners were called to the podium to accept the most-desired trophy in UK - some may say, world - racing, for all its modest value compared with many races elsewhere, Ashley and husband George took their places to the left of the group.
It’s been a joke between us that he might have considered himself a Jonah on the rare times he went to the big events. “You’re not a jinx, you’re a lucky mascot,” to which he replied, “I always thought I was a lucky omen. It was just MV and JP who joked otherwise!”
As he is such a great friend with all the people in the next generation, I’m predicting that this truly engaging man will find that learning about the game his father knows inside out might well appeal as a new challenge for him.
Now the form from last year with Haatem - City Of Troy twice beat him easily - is looking better after the places by Haatem in the 2000 and Irish 2000 Guineas. Rosellion, second at Newmarket, first in Ireland, and Notable Speech, unraced since his win in Newmarket for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, will be contesting the big mile races. Neither Appleby nor Hannon stopped smiling as they called in on the Coolmore box after the big race – as with almost everyone around the winer’s circle as he came back in.
City of Troy in the Winners' Enclosure at Epsom after winning the 2024 Derby, attended by Ryan Moore and Tony Stafford (right)
I watched the race just by the winning line – my friend and former Daily Telegraph colleague George Hill reminded me that was where we saw Reference Point’s big win for Henry Cecil – and it gave me plenty of time to get first into that famed circle.
Eventually, everyone crowded in, but somehow, I managed to get close to City Of Troy. Remembering when I went to Coolmore and met Galileo with Harry Taylor and Alan Newman a few years back, I’d stood with my hand on his near-side flank. Here I was able to do a similar thing with City of Troy. While Ryan was cuddling his neck, I pressed my hand gently on the other side. After the horse’s exertions, you might have expected an agitated animal - he was anything but. Whenever I’ve touched one of the horses I’d been involved with as a racing manager or owner in the past straight after a race I’d always come away with a wet hand.
Not on Saturday – it was bone dry, his body warm, but he stayed motionless as the photographers assailed him from the front. Racing finally is back page and television news for the right reasons. As for me, I will never forget that full minute when I touched greatness!
*
Back in the mid-80’s I somehow inveigled a horse for a cup of tea – and an equine replacement of him. He had been designed to be a riding horse, but thankfully, the intervention freed him from that dull fate, allowing him to resume his proper job as a racehorse.
Sent to Rod Simpson, he won a couple of races in the same week, at Folkestone and then Lingfield on a Saturday evening, before finishing fourth in the Lady Riders’ race at Ascot on King George Day. He hadn’t a prayer against some smart, developing three-year-olds from the likes of Barry Hills and Michael Stoute. Fourth then and a spot on the edge of the old Ascot winner’s enclosure was an achievement in the days the race wasn’t a handicap.
I’d been willing to sell before the winning spell started, and the fact that he might still be for sale persuaded Celia Radband to tell a couple of her lady rider friends – in those days quite a small community - about him
I was in the DT office one day when a call came in. "Mr Stafford?", asked Wilf Storey, "I understand you might want to sell Fiefdom", by now a five-year-old, who had been talented enough to finish fifth in the Cambridgeshire for Bruce Hobbs two years before.
He was just about the most polite person I’d ever heard, certainly in the hubbub of a sports room of a national newspaper in those days. He told me his daughters Fiona and Stella had been told by Ms Radband that he would make a lovely jumper. I hadn’t thought of that – his form when he initially started jumping was awful, but anyway.
I had to say, sorry no, adding if I changed my mind he would be my first call. Fiefdom ran well again at Ascot that autumn, after which I decided to call Wilf, offering him at 5k rather than the original 6k.
In the meantime, he’d taken another two of Rodney’s horses after one morning when they played up. I should have them shot, said a furious Rodney. I thought maybe Wilf, primarily a sheep farmer, would take them and the arrangement was duly done.
Within a couple of days, one of the two had indeed been moved on, having almost killed Chris Grant first day on the gallops; but the other one, Santopadre, was fine. These were two of a ten-horse deal I’d done with Malcolm Parrish, whom I first met at the Cashel Palace Hotel, close to Ballydoyle where he was with David O’Brien, who I’d arranged to visit.
David had recently won the Derby with Secreto, beating his father’s El Gran Senor in a massive upset which briefly threatened the stud deal that Sangster/O’Brien had already negotiated. Secreto missed the Irish Derby, El Gran Senor duly won, and the world moved on as imagined.
Also in that Parrish bunch was Brunico, later 2nd in that season’s Triumph Hurdle having been sent to Rod. Two runs later he won the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester for Terry Ramsden, beating top-class Shahrastani. Santopadre was offered around. I asked Wilf if he had anyone with two grand to buy him. Answer: “no!”
Oliver Grey rode him first time on his last day’s riding in the UK at Musselburgh before going to India. We thought him moderate, but Oliver gave him a tap around the home bend. “He flew,” he said, “so I put the stick down.”
So, the plan had to be three runs, achieved so his rating was a lowly 26 or so – they went down a lot further in those days!
Then, having told me, “Never mind the flat, I’ve never had a novice jump so well", I said there’s a weak race at Hexham coming up. He replied, “I’ve done nothing with him – you told me not to.” Despite his misgivings he won.
He won again in a fair claimer at Newcastle soon afterwards. Now, going from that company into an open juvenile novice with a 10lb penalty might have seemed a step too far, but he gave 15lb and a 15-length beating to Buck Up, a Peter Easterby filly that eventually finished runner-up in the Schweppes Gold Trophy.
Santopadre was fifth in the Triumph for Wilf, three places behind Brunico. His reward? To have him taken away to Simpson. Not by me, but Ramsden had paid many times the initial fee for him and did as he wished.
So to Fiefdom, with Santopadre already in the team. He arrived off the wagon and Wilf’s fears were unfounded. "He’s a great big beauty." He bolted up – well backed – first time at Sedgefield, running off a much lower jumps mark than his 71 on turf. In all he won three Ekbalco Hurdles at Newcastle for Wilf and ended his working days as a rider.
They were the start. In between, with younger daughter Stella doing most of the riding on the Muggleswick gallops, the winners kept flowing, the most important Great Easeby, a £2k purchase unraced from Robert Sangster. He won races all over the place, including the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.
Another to come from Manton more recently was Card High. I’d watched him being completely outpaced as a juvenile in all his gallops for Brian Meehan and the decision was made between Ben and Guy Sangster, Robert’s sons, to get rid. I made sure I was standing nearby and when I heard the magic words, I was there. “I know someone!” – he won six and only retired last year.
Stella had to withdraw a year or so ago from the action after suffering many bad falls, but fortunately her sister Fiona’s daughter, Siobhan Doolan, was able to step in. I was watching the HIT sale last year and noticed that an Ollie Sangster two-year-old was unsold at 1,000 gns.
I checked with Ollie whether he had left the sale – he hadn’t, “but be quick!”
I was nowhere near, but old sales pal Richard Frisby came to the rescue and did the deal. The horse was called Edgewater Drive, a son of of Dandy Man. At first, the gelding, who had injured a foot before the sale, "could hardly walk up the gallop, never mind run", says Siobhan. Gradually, after several weeks’ careful handling, he was able to break out of a trot.
All that part was unknown to me as I tried to get ten shares sold at £100 each. With good friend Keven Howard trawling the pubs of mid-Essex, between us we must have asked 30 people and managed to sell not one share.
Siobhan got going. She had managed to syndicate the mare Shifter to the same people that had owned Card High – oil rig workers offshore in Scotland - and that mare won twice last year. Many of them eventually joined up as Edgewater Drive gradually came right.
Eighth in a decent mile race at Wetherby on his first run where not quite getting home, everyone was enthused when Shifter won another twice recently as Edgewater Drive had worked nicely behind her up the late Denys Smith’s gallop.
Expectations were bright, then, on Friday at Carlisle and, under a lovely ride from the underrated Paula Muir, Edgewater Drive sailed through a gap and won by almost two lengths. No City Of Troy, but at £100 a pop, pretty good value. If Aidan O’Brien can turn water into wine, Wilf Storey might not be able to do that, but the old alchemist almost turns base metal into gold! And none of it would have happened without Celia Radband.
Come on in Celia and watch Edgewater Drive win again next time out at Redcar of June 21, unless of course you are at Royal Ascot!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CityofTroy_Derby2024_Celebrations.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2024-06-03 08:12:212024-06-03 09:58:11Monday Musings: Of God and the Alchemist!
As regular readers will know, geegeez.co.uk syndicates a small team of racehorses under both codes, but mainly jumpers. As well as legends such as Coquelicot (won her ninth race yesterday at Nottingham) and Sure Touch (after winning the £100,000 Summer Plate in July he goes for the £75,000 Grand Sefton on Saturday), we have dual scorer Konigin Isabella, and a horse to follow this season in Dartmoor Pirate (4th of 17 in the uber-competitive Grade 3 Novices' Final at Sandown on his only run beyond two miles).
We also have a couple of 'store' horses destined to be part of the next chapter. One of them is fully syndicated and the other has a single share remaining. Full details are below, so read on if this might be of interest...
The Horse: Part 1
This was the situation at the end of May of this year...
A good looking athletic son of top sire Jet Away, this as yet unnamed four-year-old gelding was purchased for €42,000 from the Goffs Arkle Sale last June. His dam, Forge Field, was unraced but is a daughter of Faraday Lady, herself a full sister to RSA Chase winner Lord Noelie. Forge Field's own sister won ten races under Rules! You can view his pedigree here.
He has a half-brother, Forged Well, who in his first season - the one just finished - managed a win, a second and a third from five races. He'll be interesting to follow next season and looks very likely to progress a good bit further for a fence.
Jet Away is still a relatively young stallion, with his first crop currently eight years old. That crop includes the Grade 1-winning mare Brandy Love; and he's since produced the likes of Three Card Brag, third in the Grade 1 Champions Novice Chase at last month's Punchestown Festival; the seven-time winner Clear The Runway; six-time winners Twinjets, Dreams Of Home and Jet Plane; and Listed winner Space Tourist. Most of these are still racing with more to come.
Turning attention to our lad, since being bought a year ago he's been broken in, pre-trained and has run in a private schooling hurdle to get experience of what a race feels like.
Here he is (left hand side, white face) having a canter...
And this is the schooling hurdle where he was asked to do nothing more than travel amongst horses to experience what that's like...
Right now, he's out in a field eating grass and getting nice and fat - growing into that big frame - ahead of coming back for this season's plan, which is outlined further down the post.
As of 12th July he came back in from the field to start burning off some of those grassy calories and get in shape for the season!
The Horse: Part 2
Since going back into training, he's been named and will race as GEE FORCE FLYER, chosen by his current syndicate members.
This is an innovative project as you'll see...
The Trainer(s)
To be trained in due course by Olly Murphy, who is based in Wilmcote, near Stratford-upon-Avon. Olly is in his eighth season training, and has already amassed two Grade 1 wins, four Grade 2's and seven Grade 3 or Listed contests. He's currently on 620 total wins at an overall strike rate of nearly 18%, which is very impressive; and he has 38 wins on the board already this season.
Olly has been a really lucky trainer for us, all five of the horses we've had there winning. They included Oxford Blu, a first Cheltenham Festival runner for geegeez syndicates (and for Olly, incidentally); Swaffham Bulbeck, who won on Gold Cup day TWICE (though not at Cheltenham!); and the aforementioned Sure Touch, who won the £100,000 Summer Plate on 20th July and is now headed to Aintree for a tilt at the National fences on Saturday.
Gee Force Flyer started his season's training at Olly's before moving across to Kinsale, Ireland, where he's being readied for a run in a point to point by Mikey Kennedy, brother of jockey Jack Kennedy. He recently did some very good work at the Curragh's schooling grounds, as you can see below, and is only a few weeks (literally) from a run.
This is him (right hand side, white face, emerging in the middle of the trio that go on) starting at the back of four horses, before passing the other three and winning the gallop:
And here he is, at the back of the trio learning to settle in behind, schooling over fences:
Needless to say both Mikey and Olly are very pleased with where he's at and it's clear that he's just about ready to go.
The plan
The plan for Gee Force Flyer was/is as follows:
Syndicate him into ten shares [NINE sold, ONE left]
Send him back to Ireland to continue his 'pre-training' [done], with a view to running in a point to point some time around December [firmly on track]
Return to UK and run in bumpers (National Hunt Flat races) in the new year [still the plan]
Next season (2025/26) will be a full season novice hurdling and, as can be seen, he's going to be a cracking chaser in time [still the plan]
As I say, he's being taken care of in Ireland by Mikey Kennedy at Innishannon, about five miles southwest of Cork, and roughly the same distance northwest of Kinsale. It's a lovely part of the world, and one from where my partner Carole's family all hail. The plan is to head over when GFF races and, naturally, to sample the local hospitality!
From there, we'll decide whether or not to continue with a further point run or, more likely, to return to the UK for a National Hunt Flat race or two. Either way, he's receiving an excellent grounding ahead of a full season novice hurdling next year; and he has the make, shape, athleticism and pedigree of a smart chaser in the coming years. That'll be his main job, no question.
*
This project is quite different from any we've undertaken before and, as I say, it will involve a trip (maybe two) to Ireland to watch the horse in his point to point run(s), as well as the associated fun and camaraderie that such a weekend entails.
The investment
OK, so what's the damage?
He wasn't cheap when purchased 18 months ago for €42,000, but of course quality rarely is. To that has been incurred sales fees, transport to and from Ireland, pre-training, and then full training with Mikey, as well as grass keep when he was back at Olly's Warren Chase stables. Since his summer holiday, he's done some work at Olly's and then gone back to Mikey to be trained for a point this side of Christmas. And then we'll think about a bumper in the new year. This is just the beginning of his - and our - journey with all roads leading to his chasing career down the track.
As mentioned, I've syndicated him into ten equal (10%) shares, of which nine are bought and paid for already. There is one share left! The cost of that share is £5,000 + VAT which covers everything to date: purchase, all expenses to date, and training until the end of November (which will be funded by the reclaimed VAT). From 1st December, £195/month per share covers ongoing upkeep. Put another way, I hope and expect that once your share is paid for there will be nothing further to contribute until he's run, or ready to run.
Those figures include everything except insurance - individual members may insure their share if they wish - up to the end of November 2024.
Syndicate members are entitled to two owners' badges each time the horse runs, a 10% share of all prizemoney and any future net sales proceeds, stable visits, and regular updates on progress. With this particular horse, I expect we'll be planning a trip to Ireland to watch him in a point to point in the very near future, and I'm guessing we'll make a weekend of that!
This article continues further research into ‘exotic’ bets, with the focus switching to predicting two horses to come first and second in a specific race, writes Dave Renham. As with the 1-2-3 trifecta and tricast bets, punters in the UK and Ireland have two options, namely the Exacta and the Computer Straight Forecast (CSF). The Exacta is a pool bet available with the Tote, while the CSF is a bookmaker bet that, like the tricast, has the payout/dividend calculated by a computer formula.
In this piece, I will compare the two to see if one is better than the other or at least one is better under certain circumstances.
With the Computer Straight Forecast, there is a method that you can use to estimate the likely payout for most races once you know the SPs. Essentially, you take the winner's price, add one point to the price of the second-placed horse, and multiply them together. Hence, in a race where the winner is 3/1 and the second is 5/1, you multiply 3 by 6 (5+1), and the forecast will pay around £18.00. Here are a couple of recent examples to help illustrate this. The first was a race at Windsor on 20th May:
Using the estimating method, the payout should be around £48.00 (4 x 12), and as you see, the CSF paid £47.18. A second example comes from the same day at Carlisle:
This time, the rough payout calculation is around £25 (2.5 x 10), and once again, the estimate is within £1 of the actual payout, which was £25.79.
Therefore, as a punter we can have a relatively good idea of this potential payout pre-race if we leave our CSF bet as close to the ‘off’ as possible and by having the latest live bookie odds to hand. These odds should be very close to the actual SPs, so a quick calculation can help us decide whether we feel the probable odds justify the bet.
As far as predicting the likely payout of the exacta pre-race, one can often have a rough idea, too. This is because the Tote Pool Exacta Info can be accessed live on the net. However, they will only show the most popular exacta combinations, so you may not see your preferred combo in big fields. Being a pool bet, these dividends/potential payouts are continually changing. Still, when you get very close to the ‘off’, and if the pool is a decent size, any late changes in potential exacta dividend will be quite small. This is unless someone places a late exacta bet with a decent stake, which, fortunately, is quite rare. Like with the late placement idea of the CSF, late exacta placement is possible if your combination is shown on the Tote screen. If it is, then this gives you a decent prediction of the likely dividend to again help you decide whether the bet is value or not.
It's time to review some history. The data for this article has been taken from six months of UK and Irish racing spanning from 1st January 2023 to 30th June 2023. This includes National Hunt racing, All-Weather flat, and Turf Flat, with the proviso that races must have at least five runners. I have ignored any race with a dead heat for the first or second, as the payout gets split and messy.
Average Payouts (Overall)
First, let me compare the average payouts for the CSF and the Exacta from the six months of qualifying races, of which there were nearly 6000 in total. The figures are rounded to the nearest pound:
As with the trifecta/tricast research, the Tote bet, in this case, the Exacta, has come out on top. The Exacta ‘edge’ has averaged out to just above 19%, a significant difference.
Average Payouts by Race Code
I now want to look at the average payouts across the three race codes: National Hunt, All Weather Flat, and Turf Flat. Here are the splits:
The Exacta trumps the CSF in all three, but the edge has been less pronounced in all-weather racing. However, these initial findings suggest that the Exacta is a better value option than the CSF across all codes.
Race by Race Comparisons
Let me compare race by race, which came out ‘on top’ with the bigger return/payout more often. Races where the payout had a differential of less than 10 pence, I have called ‘ a draw’:
Having already seen the average payouts, these percentages will be no surprise. The difference is not as pronounced as we saw in the trifecta/tricast battle, but again, when taking a general view, the Exacta offers the better option.
Average Payouts UK v Ireland
I’m back comparing average payouts/dividends with a look now at UK average payouts versus Irish ones. Here are the figures:
As the figures show, the payouts have been much higher in Ireland. However, the main reason for this is Ireland's bigger average field size. The average number of runners in Ireland during these six months was 12, compared with an average of just 9 in the UK. Regarding the percentage edge to the Exacta versus the CSF, Irish races have seen a much more significant advantage using the Tote bet.
Average Payouts by Field Size
Sticking with the field size/number of runners angle, let's examine the average payouts for both bets to see if the Exacta edge increases as the field size does. I have split the results into the following field sizes: 5 to 7 runners, 8 to 10, 11 to 13, 14 to 16, and 17 or more. The blue line represents the Exacta and the orange line is the CSF:
The smallest field has just favoured the CSF, with the bookie’s bet having a slight 4% edge over the Exacta. However, this is the only ‘win’ for the CSF as the edge for the Exacta increases as the field size increases:
As you can see, the number of runners significantly impacted how the Exacta matched up with the CSF. There is a 32% edge for the Exacta when we get to 14-16 runner fields; once we go 17 or more, the edge is nudging 60%. Essentially, the bigger the field size the better as far as the Exacta is concerned. I, for one, will not be contemplating CSF bets instead of Exacta bets in races of 11 or more runners. I would be mad to do so based on these findings.
There were 233 qualifying races with 17 or more runners, of which the Exacta paid more than the CSF in 210–this equates to just over 90% of these races.
Average Payouts by Race Type
My next port of call is to examine the difference between handicaps and non-handicaps by comparing the average payouts/dividends of the two bets. Here are my findings:
Handicap payouts/dividends are higher for both, but in terms of Exacta's ‘edge’ over the CSF in handicaps vs non-handicaps, it is just 0.3% - essentially the same. However, to try and get greater insight, let me split the results down into more specific race types:
I had expected handicap hurdle races to show the most significant edge for the Exacta because these races tend to have bigger fields, but novice hurdle and chase races have edged it. National Hunt Flat races have seen the smallest edge for the Exacta over the CSF at only 5%.
Average Payout by Racecourse
For the last part of this first article, I will look at how the Exacta and CSF played out at different tracks. I will begin this section by sharing flat/AW courses with 40 or more qualifying races, giving us a good sample size. It includes all races, so a mix of handicaps and non-handicaps. Therefore, let me compare course by course, which of the two bets came out on top more often. I have listed the courses in alphabetical order:
The six courses highlighted in red (Ascot, Bath, Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Musselburgh, and York) are those where the Exacta prevailed in at least 70% of races. Bath narrowly missed out by half a percent. The two courses in blue, Hamilton and Leicester, were the only two where the CSF beat the Exacta more often.
I'm sticking with Ascot because, with Royal Ascot just around the corner, I thought it would be interesting to look at the 2023 results to hopefully give us some pointers for the 2024 meeting. Here are the individual Exacta/CSF payouts for all 35 races (The rows in red are where the Exacta payout was bigger than the CSF one):
There were 31 wins out of 35 for the Exacta (88.5% of races), just three wins for the CSF and one ‘draw’. In 9 races (25.7% of races), the Exacta payout was at least double the CSF. 11 of the 12 handicaps (91.7% of races) saw the Exacta do best, of which 4 (33.3% of races) saw the Exacta paying more than double.
The average payout across all races for the Exacta was £400; for the CSF, it was £230. However, these averages were both badly skewed by the result of the first race on 22nd June, where a 150/1 shot prevailed. In that race, the CSF paid £3478.24; the Exacta £5369.6. Taking that race out, the average payouts over the other 34 races were – CSF £135 and Exacta £253.
The message is clear: if you plan to try and predict the first two home in a Royal Ascot race this year, the Exacta is by far the best option.
Moving away from the flat, let's review the same statistics for National Hunt course results (minimum 40 races):
Cheltenham is the only other track to have exceeded 70% for Exacta ‘wins’, while three have seen the CSF edge it: Fontwell, Ludlow, and Stratford.
**
Summary
It is time to wind up this first half of my comparison of Exacta and CSF, with more to come in a follow-up piece next time. At this juncture, Exacta is holding a healthy lead over the CSF. I expect that to continue next time, although I am currently still in the research phase of part two, so let's keep an open mind for now!
-DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TripleTime_Inspiral_QueenAnneStakes_RoyalAscot2023.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-05-28 09:51:512024-05-28 09:53:17Comparing Exacta and Computer Straight Forecast: Part 1
Four weeks after the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and seven days after the Irish 2000 Guineas, with all the recognised trials sorted in between, we come on Saturday to Derby Day, writes Tony Stafford.
It’s as early as it can be, and for those stables yet to strike form, it’s always a frightening thought that within 46 days of what most professionals believe is the true starting point of the 2024 turf season – day one of Newmarket’s Craven meeting – we will have knocked off four-fifths of the UK Classic complement.
We’ve had Chester, Lingfield, the French 2000 and 1000 Guineas, York and the two Irish Guineas this past weekend. Sometimes we get the odd one coming on to Epsom for the Derby or Oaks from the two Irish Guineas races. Realistically, though, with the races only one week apart, it seems an abrupt tactic to switch from one mile up the Curragh to the 12 furlongs with its twists, gradients, and cambers of the Derby course.
In times gone by there was also Goodwood, a three-day midweek fixture, following on from York’s Dante meeting. In 1979 Major Dick Hern had two fancied runners at Epsom, the Queen’s Milford, and Sir Michael Sobell’s Troy, with stable jockey Willie Carson staying loyal to the latter – seen as traitorous in some parts.
Troy had begun his three-year-old season with a narrow win in the Classic Trial at Sandown, a performance that Hern thought needed another race to bring him to the boil. To wait for the Predominate Stakes, Goodwood’s colts’ trial, was reckoned in most quarters to be a risky policy, with so short a time between that race and the Derby.
Nowadays, Goodwood’s two Listed races for three-year-olds, one for colts/geldings and the other for fillies, are both staged on the same day as they were on Saturday. At first glance, the narrow win of Meydaan, third behind Ambiente Friendly in the Lingfield Derby Trial, might have been regarded as a boost for the form. I didn’t see the race live so took that as evidence backing my recent excessive praise for the Lingfield success of the James Fanshawe colt.
However, a review of the race replay told me otherwise. At least two in the seven-horse field could have finished much nearer. Space Legend, the William Haggas-trained favourite after two promising runs, was a fast-closing second after extricating himself from crowding and could almost certainly have won had he been able to start his challenge a little earlier. More worryingly for the form, fourth home Lavender Hill Mob also might have finished much closer.
This Michael Bell horse is rated a modest 79 having won a handicap last time. It’s hard to see how Meydaan, always in the clear on Saturday, deserves to go higher than his present 97. There’s no realistic scope for an Ambiente Friendly upward rating adjustment in tomorrow’s listings. I thought he ran a brilliant race at Lingfield, but yesterday morning, Rab Havlin, who will be replacing his Lingfield winning jockey Callum Shepherd this week, was worrying about the chance of soft ground at Epsom. “He has such a daisy-cutting action”, said Havlin, after working on Newmarket’s Limekilns yesterday.
Nowadays, the Predominate, downgraded some time ago to a Listed race, is known as the Cocked Hat Stakes and I think yesterday’s form could be put in a cocked hat! In 1979, Troy won that race by seven lengths and followed up by an identical margin in a devastating performance at Epsom. He ended as Racehorse of the Year, despite not matching his best form when third in the Arc having won the Juddmonte at York in August.
The old timers always used to say, fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby, and as Paul Cole would be quick to remind us, that was the route taking by his and Faad Salman’s Generous in 1991. This year’s fourth, the Clive Cox-trained, Jeff-Smith-owned Ghostwriter does have a Derby entry – the Irish version at the end of next month.
He, along with the first three home at Newmarket, headed up by Godolphin’s impressive winner Notable Speech, has the one-mile St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot as the next step on the agenda.
There is already some serious Classic solidity to the Newmarket form with Rosallion and Haatem, respectively second and third for Richard Hannon behind Notable Speech, making it a stable one-two in the Irish Classic on Saturday.
The only defeated horse in the 2000 Guineas expected to be running at Epsom – we can still have a surprise supplementary today - is the present favourite City Of Troy. He was a humbled ninth of eleven at Newmarket, 17 lengths behind the winner.
Since last week’s words here, Economics, the runaway Dante winner at York for William Haggas, has not been supplemented for the Derby, his wishes, probably reluctantly, acceded to by his owners.
With River Tiber finishing just behind the Hannon pair in third on Saturday, at least there is a semblance of hope for anyone with long-standing vouchers on City Of Troy for the Derby. There’s no doubt that he has always stood far above his stable-mates at Ballydoye. Interestingly, the one reason I’ve heard Aidan O’Brien giving for the flop last time is: “I treated him too much like a god over the winter.” Even God will have had to do some proper work, maybe even on Sundays, since!
O’Brien of course also had the top juvenile filly of 2023 in Opera Singer, a status guaranteed by her victory in the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc Day at Longchamp last autumn. Like City Of Troy, she is by unbeaten US Triple Crown winner Justify, and all the assumptions as to her and her stablemate’s stamina possibilities are presumably based on Justify’s 12-furlong win in the Belmont Stakes, third leg of the US Triple Crown.
If City Of Troy comes back as Auguste Rodin did in last year’s Derby, it would still be no guarantee of champion racehorse status at the end of the season. Economics has the imminent target of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race that has projected its winner to stardom in the past. Shareef Dancer, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, had a quick follow-up in the Irish Derby back in the 1980’s.
There are four of the six horses outclassed by Economics still entered before today’s five-day stage. Ancient Wisdom and War Rooms were second and third at York, and victory for either would propel Economics into the “unbeatable” firmament – just as last year’s Dewhurst romp did for City Of Troy. I will leave the predictions and the talking to the horses on Saturday – I’ve had more than enough to say already. I’m just hoping for a clean race and a worthy winner.
To show that unpredictability in racing at Classic level is not exclusively for these shores, yesterday’s Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) carried a winner’s prize of more than £1.8 million. Hot favourite at 6/5 was the previously unbeaten Japanese 2000 Guineas winner Justin Milano, but he had to give best in the straight to two-length winner Danon Decile, who started at 46/1!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NotableSpeech_2000Guineas_2024_2.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2024-05-27 05:01:312024-05-26 20:35:10Monday Musings: Galloping Through The Classics
This is the second article in which I have compared two exotic bets - the tricast and the trifecta, writes Dave Renham. The trifecta was the better option in the first piece, which you can read here, considering all qualifying races. It paid out more than the tricast in roughly eight out of every ten races. In this follow up, I will share some more of my findings.
The data was taken from UK and Irish turf flat handicap races run in 2023, in which there were between 10 and 14 runners. As I mentioned last time, this amounts to just over 1000 races, and I have excluded any race where there was a dead heat in one of the first three positions as the payouts get split. I have also excluded races where there was no trifecta payout. This happens occasionally when the pool size is small, and the first three horses home were unfancied/decent prices.
The first piece examined general comparisons and then delved into individual course data. In this piece, I will revisit some course data and examine some Starting Price data.
Trifectas at Specific Racecourses
In the first article, I compared average course payouts for trifecta and tricast and how often the trifecta ‘beat’ the tricast in percentage terms. Here, I want to share some findings regarding how frequently one of the bets paid at least twice as much as the other.
Looking at all 1011 qualifying races, the trifecta paid at least double the tricast on 145 occasions, and the tricast paid at least double on only 20 occasions. Hence, 14.3% of all races saw a trifecta payout of at least double the tricast (2% of races for tricast at least double the trifecta). Below is an individual course breakdown showing the percentage of races where the trifecta paid at least twice the tricast dividend. They are listed with the biggest percentages at the top.
The top three are all Irish courses, which is interesting. The Curragh tops the list, with the trifecta being twice or bigger than the tricast in roughly three out of every ten races. For those who remember some stats from the first article, the Curragh had the highest percentage differential when comparing average payouts. Hence, seeing the course also tops this list is no real surprise.
Chester lies at the bottom of the table, and I wonder whether this is due to the well-known low draw bias, especially over shorter distances. I can imagine, for example, that horses drawn 1 and 2 would appear in punters’ trifecta bets more often than at most other courses. Therefore, with the trifecta bet being a pool bet, if either or both draws 1 or 2 finish in the first three, the returns will be lower because of the extra money placed on these draws. I cannot categorically prove this, but that is my theory.
While discussing draw bias, the draw can also affect the computer-generated calculation on tricast payouts when three horses drawn close together finish in the first three. I am unsure how the deduction is calculated, but a serious one can occur. Let me give you an example of such a situation. The 2022 Victoria Cup had the following result:
The first three finishers came from the three highest draws. Usually, with prices of 16/1, 22/1, and 25/1, I would estimate that the tricast would pay around £8700 to £9300. However, on this occasion, the tricast paid just £4377. This is a clear example of where a draw-biased race sees a much lower return.
I tried to find another big field handicap where the prices of the first three were the same, and there was no draw bias in play. The closest I could find was the result of the Ebor handicap at York in 2019.
Hence, the 1st and the 3rd prices were the same in both races, but the second was three points bigger at 25/1. The tricast, on this occasion, paid £9605. Given the slightly higher price for the second-placed runner, I would estimate the payout may be bigger by a few hundred quid. However, the York payout was over £5000 higher than the Ascot one, which helps demonstrate that draw bias tricasts can be severely compromised.
Impact of odds of horses in the first three
I would now like to share my findings related to the prices of the runners within the first three finishing spots. I will start by looking at the winner's price and see what effect that had on which of the two bets came out on top more often.
As the first line of the table highlights, when the winner was a short price, 2/1 or less, the trifecta win percentage dropped somewhat. The first article noted that the trifecta outperforms the tricast just over 80% of the time but drops to just over 70% here. However, the reverse was true when an outsider took the first spot with winners priced between 20/1 and 28/1, with the trifecta prevailing 85.4% of the time, and winners priced 33/1+ seeing that figure rise to 89.5%.
These figures suggest that trifecta bettors overbet short-priced runners, at least when placing them in first position in their 1-2-3 bet. In contrast, bigger-priced horses are underplayed in terms of being placed in the first position of trifecta bets. Placing runners priced 2/1 or shorter in the first position of your trifecta bet will yield more winning bets, but one could argue that the better value lies with bigger-priced runners placed in that first spot.
Now I will try a similar idea, investigating what percentage of races saw the trifecta beat the tricast based this time on the prices of the second-placed horses. The graph below shows the percentage of the races where the trifecta came out on top:
The graph illustrates that, in general terms, the trifecta’s edge over the tricast drops as the price of the second-placed runner increases. The two have no perfect correlation, but the trend is clearly downward.
These figures suggest that putting shorter-priced runners in the second spot in the trifecta is a good idea. This time, bigger-priced runners (20/1 plus) finishing second are not so ‘trifecta friendly’.
Time to share this type of data for horses that finished third:
We see a similar pattern to the second-placed results. Shorter prices in the third spot considerably improve the chances of the trifecta payout exceeding the tricast one. In contrast, horses finishing third and priced 20/1 or bigger see the trifecta edging closer to parity with the tricast.
The ‘price’ findings across all three finishing positions suggest that trifecta bettors can improve their chances even further of getting the bigger payout between the two 1-2-3 bets by considering prices in conjunction with the finishing position. Therefore, one would surmise that trifecta bettors could potentially increase their returns as well if adopting such considerations.
Of course, instead of a single-position price analysis, we should look at combinations of prices for the first three finishing positions. I have started to do this, but even using the price brackets from earlier, there are far too many potential combinations to crunch and analyse. Also, many such combinations would have occurred very rarely over these 1011 races, and hence, those findings would not be statistically significant. Consequently, I have looked at a few more ‘general’ cases.
General Case Studies
Case 1 – The top three finishers are all priced 11/2 or shorter
This scenario occurred in 60 races, so it has a good sample size. Here are the percentage splits for which of the two bets came out on top more often.
A resounding success for the trifecta was when all three runners were at or near the head of the market. Now, a look at the average payouts of the two bets when these prices occurred:
On average, the trifecta has paid £37 more than the tricast, which equates to a 50% edge. Therefore, when the prices of the runners in your proposed 1-2-3 bet are within these parameters, you should use the trifecta.
Case 2 – The top three finishers are all priced 17/2 or bigger
This time, the prices of all three finishers are much higher. Indeed, 97% of all horses priced 17/2 or bigger from these races were outside the top four of the betting. Hence, this is quite an unusual occurrence and as a result we have only 28 qualifying races. So, this is a smallish sample, but let’s see what the stats say, starting with the percentage splits for which of the two bets came out on top more often.
We see quite a different picture compared with the 11/2 or shorter results. The tricast came out on top more, albeit the difference equated to just one race (14 ‘wins’ to 13).
Onto the average payouts now:
A second win for the tricast averaging £377 more, giving the tricast close to a 13% edge per bet (on average).
However, I must share some extra information as two tricast payouts in this subset were unusually high. The first, at Newbury, saw the tricast pay £11,662, and the second, at Windsor, paid £16,900. The trifecta payouts, in comparison, were much lower - £6373 at Newbury and £5547 at Windsor. Taking those payouts away, the remaining 26 races where the first three were all priced 17/2 or bigger provided the following average payouts:
We are back to the usual picture painted in these two articles, where the trifecta averaged more than the tricast.
Ultimately, my two takeaways from races where the first three home were all priced 17/2 or bigger are:
a) trifecta payouts fluctuate much more, and b) the bigger the tricast, the more chance the tricast has of returning more than the trifecta.
The draw seems luckier for trifecta bettors within these price parameters. I guess smaller pool sizes may play a part in this, but I have not investigated this yet, so I cannot say for certain.
Case 3 – Top three finishers priced between 5/1 to 10/1
Ideally, I wanted to use prices that I hadn’t used in the previous two ‘case’ examples, but if I had used ‘the missing’ price bracket of 6/1 to 8/1 for all the top three finishers, there would have only been four qualifying races. Hence, I have extended the price boundaries on each side to give us a more ‘middling’ group of prices compared to the first two. That gave us a decent sample of 62 races. Once again, I will start with the percentage splits for which of the two bets came out on top more often.
This price spread amongst the first three horses has again favoured the trifecta. Now to the average payouts:
The trifecta has a significant edge here regarding average payouts, averaging £171 more per race than the tricast. This equates to 44%.
I have one additional stat that hopefully will be of interest. Focusing on this subset of results, 17 of them were run at Grade 1 courses (Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, York), and the trifecta paid higher in 16 of the 17 (94%). At the same time, other races saw the same payouts (to the nearest £). I appreciate that this is a small sample but a worthwhile ‘share’.
**
Summary
Both articles contain quite a lot of data to digest but I hope they have helped those of you who dabble in these exotic bets to maximise your chances of getting better long-term returns than you may have previously.
Of course, not many of us will achieve long-term financial success from these bets. The edge the bookmakers or the Tote have to begin with puts punters at a significant disadvantage. However, these findingd should assist in taking a big chunk out of their advantage if nothing else.
From a personal perspective, when I have some time, I plan to dig further into combinations of prices for the first three finishers, as I feel I have only scratched the surface. I also plan to revisit the whole trifecta/tricast area from an article-writing perspective, as I would like to examine standalone National Hunt data and possibly all-weather data, too.
-DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/276204270-scaled.jpg12802560Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-05-21 11:57:222024-05-21 11:57:22A Comparison of Trifecta and Tricast Payouts in Horse Racing: Part Two
They say you can’t keep a good man down, writes Tony Stafford. Well, I promise you, if that good man has a chosen profession as a racehorse trainer, it’s the easiest thing in the world to do. Simply cut off his access to horses of talent and potential and he’s gone in a year.
Some, often against their better judgment (not to say their other halves and more importantly their bank managers) can struggle on with diminishing returns and in many ways embarrassment at to where they have slipped. The always fashion-fickle world of racing is quick to dismiss them, forgetting the knowledge in forging those fantastic careers they already have on their record.
Thank heaven, then, for the Racing Post which retains such a history in its Big Race wins section under each trainer’s statistics. One of the mostly forgotten, but now bouncing back with renewed vigour and optimism is Brian Meehan, who can point to three full pages under his name, that is were it not for his modest character.
I’ve known Brian for a long time, seen his traditional Thursday galloping days at first hand for several years and always admired the ability to assess a trio or quartet of horses flashing past right in front of his nose. I’m sure every successful trainer in the country has that facility, but Brian has it in spades.
Trawling back through those Racing Post lists, it is striking just how successful he was in training two-year-olds, then equally how adeptly he developed middle-distance horses. Red Rocks (from Galileo’s first crop) and Dangerous Midge won at the Breeders’ Cup, and another globe-trotter, David Junior, picked up a host of races with the massive prize of the Dubai Duty Free in one of the early editions of the Dubai Carnival.
Then owners either aged and cut back, or of course sadly died, inevitable over a 30-plus year career. Where he used to manage up to 140 horses in the period of his biggest achievements in the first decade of this century, the numbers ebbed away.
Results too, so last year for the first time, nine wins represented a nadir. Then again, he still produced the Sam Sangster buy Isaac Shelby to win the Greenham Stakes, then finish a close runner-up in the French 2000 Guineas before being sold lucratively (to stay in the yard) to Wathnan Racing.
Isaac Shelby has yet to reappear, but a couple of this year’s crop have already moved onto the big-time scene. Jayarebe won the Group 3 Feilden Stakes in the manner of a high-class performer last month. He disappointed at Chester next time, but it would be a mistake to condemn him for that as plenty of horses struggle around the Roodee.
Incidentally, the vastly experienced and accurate commentator Mike Cattermole showed at the meeting that anyone can make a mistake. Mike referred during one race there as being on Town Moor – an extreme blip in Mike’s case as two tracks could hardly more different than the one-mile round of Chester and the extreme gallop of Doncaster’s Town Moor, almost twice its circumference.
As I hinted earlier, Brian quickly won such races as the Prix Morny with Bad As I Wanna Be and the Cheveley Park with Donna Blini. Incidentally, Donna Blini, winner of three from four as a juvenile didn’t stay the 1000 Guineas trip, finishing last to Speciosa, and had just one more win, over five furlongs at the Newmarket July meeting. She was to have a much bigger part to play, though, in the international scene than anyone could have believed.
Sold for 500k to Katsumi Yoshida, that was only the beginning of her story. In Japan, one of her first matings, to the immortal Deep Impact, produced the filly Gentildonna, winner of nine of her 17 races. Two of them, at age three and four, were in the Japan Cup, Japan’s greatest race, the second time ridden by Ryan Moore. In all she won £12 million in stakes, also beating the top-class French gelding Cirrus Des Aigles in the Sheema Classic in Dubai.
I’m sure Brian’s career and optimism have been saved for a large part by Robert Sangster’s second-youngest son, Sam, still only in his early 30’s. He resolved to use his many connections to set up Manton Thoroughbreds, selling shares in yearlings which he and Brian had sourced at the sales. Initially, the prices were modest (mostly around 50k), but now the odd six-figure sum has been creeping in as the team has become more confident.
On Saturday at Newmarket – always one of Brian’s favourite tracks – his newcomer Invincible Song, a 140,000gns acquisition, showed excellent speed before being overtaken by Ascot-bound Godolphin homebred Mountain Breeze, who had the benefit of an earlier win on the course.
Invincible Song, by Invincible Spirit, flashed that speed but also inexperience almost in equal measure, making the running while edging first right then left. She kept on nicely in this valuable (20k to the winner, almost five grand for third) fillies’ race. She will step up on that.
Twenty-four hours earlier at local track Newbury could have been a day of days for the Manton stable. It started with the unraced Organ. Condemned to the unfavoured one draw in a field of 22, he kept pace with the leaders on the stands side and was only edged out late from second into fourth place close to home. Had he been anyway near decently drawn, he might well have won the race – at 80/1!
The decision of Martyn Meade, to hand in his training licence and concentrate on his stallion operation, brought Organ and around nine others of his team to Brian. Meade is the owner of the 3,000-acre estate where Ollie Sangster, Sam’s nephew but in age almost a contemporary, has made such a bright start.
So, you ask, what was special about an 80/1 fourth, however unlucky. I’ll tell you. Half an hour later, Monkey Island, reappearing for the first time in 2024 having had a gelding operation, made all the running over the straight seven furlongs, winning at, you guessed it, 80/1. If Organ had won, that’s a 6,560/1 double. The place part at 288/1 would have been highly acceptable – it was for a couple of my pals who had their bet with a bookie paying out on the first four. Grr!
Last weekend, for the second year in a row, Meehan went very close to winning a French one-mile Classic. His filly, Kathmandu, a 50k buy for Sam and one he’s kept a half-interest in along with raffia-furniture magnate Ed Babington, was caught in the last strides at Longchamp.
I reckoned the Coronation Stakes would be the obvious target but when I looked, having hastily added the words to last week’s missive as I’d unbelievably been oblivious to the race, her only Royal Ascot entry was in the Commonwealth Cup over six furlongs.
Brian said she would probably miss both, settling on the Prix Jean Prat, a Group 1 race for three-year-old colts and fillies over 1400 metres (seven furlongs) at Deauville, the week after Ascot. “She almost made it at Longchamp”, said Brian. “But she’ll never get up the hill for the last furlong at Ascot”. No stranger to the three-year-old Group 1 races at the Royal meeting, Meehan won the St James’s Palace Stakes with Most Improved.
I also made a nonsense of Roger Teal’s plans for his French 2,000 Guineas runner-up Dancing Gemini, a strong runner into second behind Metropolitan. Of course, Mr Obvious suggested the St James’s Palace would be the way to go. Speaking to him the following day, he said: “I had a word with Aidan (O’Brien) and he said that breeding never lies.
“He’s by Camelot and never mind the fact that Aidan always wants to win it for Coolmore and at the time had the favourite, he encouraged me to go to Epsom. I’m torn between the Derby and the Prix du Jockey Club over 10.5 furlongs the following day at Chantilly.”
Last Thursday’s Dante Stakes set the cat among the Derby pigeons, Economics showing not a glimmer of economy in slaughtering his opponents including the prominent in ante post betting Arabian Wisdom. Economics’s trainer William Haggas had taken the big colt out of the Derby believing the track would not suit him and, despite the manner of his victory, his opinion hasn’t changed though he fears the decision will be taken out of his hands. I know whose opinion I’d be listening to!
The day before was a red-letter day for the Meades’ stallion Advertise. I had sat enjoying the excellent lunch in the York owners’ room before racing with a well-known and long-established bloodstock agent referring to Advertise, top-class sprinter as a racehorse, as unlikely to make much of a stallion.
Less than two hours later, after Advertise’s daughter Secret Satire had bolted up in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes at 22/1, we exchanged a few smiles as the Andrew Balding filly returned to unsaddle. It’s always dangerous to have an entrenched position in racing and good luck to the Meades who also stand Aclaim.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Rouhiya_Kathmandu_French1000Guineas_2024.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2024-05-20 05:32:382024-05-20 05:32:38Monday Musings: Brian’s Back
When the cat’s away, the mice will disappear off down South for a weekend of punting, so the saying goes in our house, writes David Massey; and, with the good lady vanishing off to a spa weekend with her sister and nieces to celebrate one of them turning 18, it meant a weekend of either fending for myself, which usually ends with the local takeaways doing well out of me, or letting someone else take the strain, and take in some racing as a sideline.
So rather than raid the ready meals aisle at the local Big Tesco, I took the decision to take myself off to the desirable location of Staines-On-Thames for the weekend and had the idea of going to Plumpton on Sunday and Windsor on Monday night before heading home to Southwell on Tuesday morning. But first, an actual day of work at Nottingham.
Yes, it’s the one day of the year that it’s Money Without Work, as I jump on board the Martyn Of Leicester bandwagon. Martyn has numerous pitches at Ascot, Leicester, Warwick and Nottingham so anyone that’s anyone can get a day’s work as Martyn spreads the lightboards all over the country. It’s a local one for me at Nottingham and as it’s their Ladies Day, a busy one to boot.
I mean, it was busy, don’t get me wrong, but not as busy as last year when I worked the rail for them; there’s a lesson for courses here, it’s okay filling the place, Nottingham having sold out every ticket beforehand, which didn’t happen last year, but when you do, and space is at a premium, people tend to find a spot and stay there, rather than roam around, knowing a sitting space is more likely to be available. More isn’t always better, when it comes to crowds and the experience they have.
Anyway, let’s not complain too much. After a slow start and results not really falling our way, the second half of the day livened up and just in time as the 8-1 Spirit Genie was followed up with 6-1 and 12-1 winners, meaning a good day for the firm. (Unlike later on at Warwick, with five jollies and two second-in jollies going in. Ouch.) The pay for the day will cover my expenses for the weekend, so let’s kick on.
I’d already made an executive decision, once I’d seen that the M25 was shut between junctions 9-10 over the weekend and was going to cause quite a few disruptions (and throw in people traveling to the South Coast on one of the hottest days of the year so far) that poor old Plumpton was going to get the heave-ho in favour of a day of pointing at Kingston Blount, near High Wycombe. I’d never been and always wanted to go, so with my friend Lawney helping out with a badge, it was time to hit the M40 and head to Aston Rowant.
I have to say, what a glorious setting. Green fields as far as the eye can see in all directions, beautiful forestry, and a pair of red kites soaring overhead for most of the afternoon, if that’s your sort of thing. Where better to be than with a pint in your hand when the sun’s beating down? (Please drink responsibly.)
As for the punting, well, I’ve had better days. Alan Hill tells me his best chance of the afternoon runs in the first, so I invest 40 notes on him at 6-4. Sadly that went west, even with the odds-on favourite all but refusing to jump off; he never looked like winning and pulled up. No bet on the 1-3 favourite in the second and I left the Ladies Open alone, but did like one in the Men’s Open, which led three out, went clear, only to get picked off in the shadow of the post. It’s a stiff old finish, is Kingston Blount, and going for home early isn’t always the best policy. So that was a kick in the teeth, although not as much as the first division of the maiden, where I backed one each-way at 6s, and with three going clear three out and my pick just taking up the running, he unseated.
I decide today is not going to go my way, pull stumps and lick my wounds back at the hotel. At least the food was decent. Some comfort at the end of the day.
Monday morning. I’ve a lot of work to do before Windsor tonight and crack on, but once again it appears I’ve got clog-wearing Morris Dancers above me in the hotel and I opt to retire to a nearby coffee house to do some writing, which is considerably quieter. The York card looks decent and I decide fairly early that I’ll be having a decent each-way bet on Makanah in the sprint handicap.
You’d think that I’d know my way around the racecourses, having done it a few years now, but somehow I manage to take a wrong turn for Windsor and end up going down the M4 for a junction too many. Good job I’ve left in plenty of time. It’s supposed to still be a warm evening but I can tell you from bitter experience Windsor can be a cold place and sure enough the wind is blowing when I get there. The t-shirt comes off, and the long sleeved version goes on.
Operation Sunday Recovery begins well when the paddock throws up the first winner He’s Got Game, who I have £40 on, and despite almost throwing it away out of the stalls, he’s got enough in hand to win. I’ve nailed the trifecta on paddock looks as well, and already Sunday’s disasters are becoming but a distant memory.
The second looks too difficult, with five of the eight runners presenting well beforehand, so I sit it out, and a three-place bet on the exchanges on Frinton in the next gets me a bit more back. I go the wrong way in the novice with Mono River, and decide, having got Sunday’s losses back in the main, to call it an evening. I give Simon Nott, one of the few people in racing that does more miles than me, a lift back to the station and head for the hotel.
I get back in time to watch my tip for the day, Inspired Knowhow, scramble home in the closer and make a good day even better. He wins literally on the bob, and the next morning I remark to Mr Delargy how lucky we’ve been with the bob lately - three winners in the last week, none of which were in front either before or after the line. Sometimes your luck is with you, sometimes it’s not.
I celebrate with the complimentary fizzy water in the fridge and a Twirl (have you seen the tiny size of those these days? Shocking) - rock ‘n’ roll, kids - and decide on an early night, with a long drive to Southwell Tuesday morning beckoning. It’s been a fun weekend, with a bit of profit at the end of it after expenses, which you can ask for no more than. Busy week ahead - York, Doncaster and Stratford, no rest for the wicked, or indeed the journeyman worker. See you all on the Knavesmire - and bring a brolly…
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/windsor_racecourse_830x320.jpg320830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2024-05-14 18:14:592024-06-12 12:17:19Roving Reports: Time Away
In two back-to-back articles, I will examine the ‘battle’ between two exotic bets - the tricast and the trifecta, writes David Renham. These bets are incredibly difficult to win because you must correctly predict the first, second, and third horses home in a specific race. We all know that finding the winner can sometimes be a challenge, let alone the first three!
Introduction
Some punters are lured towards these bets because of the substantial potential gains if you are successful. For example, as I’m writing this piece, the Victoria Cup at Ascot has just finished, with the tricast paying £3,127.09 and the trifecta £7,636.50. I must admit I dabbled myself in this race on the trifecta and felt slightly hard done by as I had the first and second but not the third. To make it worse, the fourth and the fifth horses homes were part of my third-place combinations. I cannot complain, though, as my biggest ever winning bet came from a huge tricast payout, albeit 20 years ago.
As far as punters are concerned, the key difference between the two bets is how winnings are calculated. The tricast is a bookmaker bet, where the returns are computed and generated, giving the bookmaker a healthy margin, whereas the trifecta is a Tote pool bet. The Tote takes 25% of the trifecta pool in the UK and 30% in Ireland. Hence, as punters, you are up against it from the outset with a big overround in favour of both bookies and the Tote.
So which bet is best? Well, for this piece, I will compare handicap races with 10 to 14 runners. The data will be taken from turf flat races in the UK and Ireland during the 2023 season. This amounts to just over 1000 races (1011, to be precise), so it's a decent enough sample. For the record, I have excluded any race where there was a dead heat in one of the first three positions as the payouts get split, and it gets a bit ‘messy’. There were only six such races. I have also excluded races where there was no trifecta payout. This happens occasionally when the pool size is small, and/or the first three to finish were unfancied/decent prices.
General comparisons
Average dividend
My first port of call is to examine the average payouts for both bets in these 1000+ races. Here are the splits:
Frequency of higher dividend
As we can see, the trifecta has a much higher average payout, equating to an edge of around 26%. Digging into the numbers a little more, when the trifecta outperformed the tricast, the payout averaged out at 59% bigger; when the tricast was higher, the payout averaged 52% bigger. Let me now compare race by race in terms of which came out on top with the bigger return/payout more often:
Average dividend: UK vs Ireland
Four out of every five races saw the trifecta produce a higher return than the tricast. Regarding the ‘same’ return, I included any scenario where the returns were the same when rounded to the nearest pound.
I mentioned earlier that Irish races see a 5% extra deduction in the pool, so one would expect the UK results to outperform the Irish ones as far as the trifecta is concerned. Let’s see how this plays out in real terms, firstly looking at average trifecta payouts:
UK payouts, on average, are £153 higher, which equates to just over 24%. This is a significant difference – perhaps bigger than you may have expected, given the 5% difference in pool reduction.
Dividend Distribution
It is time to look at the payouts for the tricast and trifecta in more detail. I want to start this part by splitting the number of payouts into ten equal groups from £1 to £1000. Hence, I have totalled up the number of times the tricast paid between £1 and £100, £101 and £200, £201 and 300, and so on. Likewise, I have done the same for the trifecta. Below is a line graph showing the comparison:
The graph shows that more tricasts than trifectas were paid out when the returns were smaller (£400 or less). The reverse has happened when the payouts have been bigger than £400. Of course, this is to be expected given the average figures we saw at the beginning.
On to looking at payouts of over £1000 up to £3500 – this time, they have been grouped in batches of £250:
Regarding the payouts between £1001 and £1500, the trifecta wins hands down. It becomes more even after that but overall, the trifecta edges it slightly.
Finally, let me compare the number of payouts when the dividend paid more than £3500 – this time, it will be a straight comparison in terms of the number of times it occurred for each:
As can be seen, most of the biggest payouts came from the trifecta. However, the two biggest payouts came from the tricast - £11662 and £16900 respectively.
At this juncture, the trifecta looks the better value overall, and by some margin. However, there is plenty more digging to do and research to share.
Field size impact on dividend
What difference has the number of runners made to the payouts? Let me compare the average payouts for both tricast and trifecta for each field size:
Both graphs are generally on an upward trajectory as you would expect. Comparing the two, the trifecta edge over the tricast strengthens as the field size increases. In races of 12 to 14 runners, the trifecta has had an edge over the tricast of 25%+. This edge remains significant in 10 and 11-runner races but drops to around 14%.
Course Comparison
For the last part of this first article, I will look at how the tricast and trifecta played out in different courses. I have included courses with 15 or more qualifying races in 2023 as that gives us a decent enough sample size. First, let me compare course by course, which of the two bets came out on top more often ['Draw %' means the percentage of races where the tricast and trifecta paid the same, to the nearest pound]. Courses in red are Irish, and four courses had enough races to qualify – I have listed the courses in alphabetical order:
Of the 30 courses, 20 saw the trifecta producing the bigger payouts over 80% of the time. The top five 'trifecta performing courses’ in terms of this metric were Ayr (90.6%), Brighton (89.5%), Leicester (88.5%), Catterick (87.9%), and York (87.9%). Hence, more than nine races saw the trifecta beat the tricast at Ayr in every ten.
There were four courses where the percentage was below 70%, namely Leopardstown (69.6%), Beverley (65.8%), Ripon (65.0%), and Musselburgh (61.5%). So quite a difference between the highest, Ayr, and the lowest, Musselburgh. At this point in my research, I cannot easily find a reason for such a variance between the two; perhaps I’ll find out with more digging. The table shows the consistency of trifecta success over tricast.
The second set of course data to share are the average payouts for each. I have included a column showing the percentage difference between the averages. 28 of the 30 courses saw a higher average payout for the trifecta. The two where the tricast ‘won’ have been highlighted in bold.
The Curragh has seen the most significant differential between the two – an 82% edge for the trifecta. I thought it would be interesting to share all the results from the Curragh, including the difference between the monetary and percentage payouts. The races highlighted in red are the ones where the trifecta paid more:
This is enlightening as it does highlight the occasional randomness of the trifecta. For example, the 3:20 on 13th August saw an unusually small trifecta payout; in contrast, the payout at 4:05 on 7th October saw the reverse, with a much bigger payout than one would expect, especially given the prices of 18/1, 11/2, and 4/1. Based on my research, I estimate that this type of price configuration would pay around £550-£650.
Let me now discuss Newbury and Windsor – the two courses where the tricast ‘prevailed’. I mentioned earlier that the most significant payouts over these 1011 races were tricasts - £11662 and £16900. As you probably can guess, one of these payouts came from Newbury and the other from Windsor.
There is quite a difference between some courses in terms of the averages. This will be influenced by the market position/prices of the first three homes. To give an illustration of this, I will compare Salisbury and Ascot in terms of the average price of the horses that finished in the first three:
The prices of the first three horses will strongly influence tricast/trifecta payouts, but having some actual numbers to back it up is good. It should be noted that there is more to it than just the average prices of the first three – the market rank of the horses can be significant, too; and, in the second piece, I will delve into that in some detail.
Summary
As far as the trifecta is concerned, the size of the pool is likely to play a role. Also, the 'make-up' of the punters who have put money into the pool probably influences things. What I mean by that is, ‘What proportion of the money placed in specific trifecta bets comes from savvy/regular trifecta punters compared with those that essentially are just trying their luck?’ I am guessing that at some big meetings, especially World Pool days, you will probably get a considerable proportion of racegoers who are not regular bettors compared to bog-standard meetings. Hence, some of these will probably have a dabble on the odd trifecta due to that lure of a big win for a small outlay. This is my hypothesis, and although it is impossible to pin down actual numbers/percentages of money placed by types of racegoers, I am wondering whether further research for article two may at least offer some clues.
Anyway, it is time for me to crunch more tricast/trifecta numbers. Until the follow-up...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Bradsell_KingsStandStakes_RoyalAscot2023.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-05-14 11:44:362024-05-16 13:42:39A Comparison of Trifecta and Tricast Payouts in Horse Racing
Thirty-three years ago this week, James Fanshawe, age 30 and only a year into his career as a trainer having previously been assistant to (Sir) Michael Stoute, was preparing for the Dante Stakes at York, writes Tony Stafford. His charge, a late-developing colt running in the colours of Bill Gredley, was 20/1 shot Environment Friend. The distinctive grey stormed home in the Classic trial under George Duffield by an eye-opening five lengths.
He was unable to carry that form into the Derby, finishing 11th of 13 behind Generous, but then solidified his reputation by beating his elders in the Eclipse Stakes as a 28/1 shot next time out. Strangely, kept in training for the next four years he failed to win again, mostly with Fanshawe and then in at least two more yards in between – N C Wright and G Rimmer – before ending his active time with Clive Brittain.
In those 25 unsuccessful races – although with some nice placed efforts which brought his prize tally close to £400k – he contested 17 Group 1 races. No mistaking Bill’s ambition.
But then when you started out in the middle of the depression in 1933 in Poplar, East London, you either sank or swam. Bill Gredley swam to the extent that his family-owned Unex Group can point to major developments often close to his two homes: Stratford, adjacent to the Queen Elizabeth Park, and in Cambridge, a few miles from his adopted base of Newmarket.
For a 91-year-old, he is admirably sprightly both in mind and body and an amusing episode is usually played out when Bill comes into the dining room at the Tattersalls Newmarket sales. My pal John Hancock, still keen to get his insurance hat on after the sudden disappearance of his most recent alliance – taken over by a bigger, less sensitive outfit – is ready for their customary exchange.
“How old are you, Bill?”
When he answers, John has to concede he was born a little later the same year and the master of Stetchworth Park Stud, breeder of Environment Friend and most notably dual Oaks winner User Friendly, almost skips out of the room, his competitive spirit to the fore as usual.
Now much of the contact to trainers with the Gredley Family’s horses as they presently are billed falls on son Tim, who has a varied experience in the saddle. He was a top show jumper, in a winning GB Nations Cup team having previously retired from the sport; rode a winner of the Newmarket Town Plate (almost four miles) for Nicky Henderson, and lots of point-to-point winners too.
User Friendly came along the year after Environment Friend. She was trained by Clive Brittain and not only won the Oaks and Irish Oaks, but also went on to collect the Yorkshire version that August and then saw off the colts in the St Leger, all with Duffield on board.
She just failed to complete the set in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a neck behind Subotica, but that could hardly be adjudged a failure. Behind in fourth was St Jovite, the 12-length Irish Derby and six-length King George hero for Virginia Kraft Payson/Jim Bolger; Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Dr Devious, winner of that year’s Derby over St Jovite whom he also beat narrowly in the Irish Champion Stakes; and Arcangues, stable companion of the Andre Fabre-trained winner and later the 133/1 victor of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Phew!
Amid the cluster of Group-designated spring trials, especially for the Derby, one downgraded race stands out as possibly deserving of being restored to its former Group 3 status at least. It was five years ago that Anthony Van Dyck collected the Lingfield Derby Trial en route to success at Epsom for Aidan O’Brien, and the Irish supremo usually sends a couple to establish their suitability for the similar twists and cambers of Epsom three weeks later.
Saturday’s line-up contained the requisite Ballydoyle pair, and they finished second and fourth behind the Gredley-owned and Fanshawe-trained Ambiente Friendly. Ryan Moore was in the leading trio from the start and wrestled the awkward-looking Illinois into the straight at the head of the field.
Meanwhile Callum Shepherd had buried Ambiente Friendly in the middle of the pack, but as Illinois and Ryan edged wide, he came even wider. It took just a nominal shake of the reins for Ambiente Friendly to take control and, several strides before the line, Shepherd was pulling him up.
Still the margin was four-and-a-half lengths with more than three after Illinois back to third in the 11-horse field. If Callum had wished, it could have been nearer six and it’s slightly a shame that he didn’t.
On the day, raced on good, good to firm in places ground on the Round Course, it was the only time below Racing Post standard. Additionally, it was just 0.14sec slower than Night-Shirt on midsummer firm ground back in 1990, earlier even than the exploits of Environment Friend and User Friendly, achieved in setting the course record.
Former jockey and now Sky Sports Racing pundit Freddy Tylicki has the distinction of having made the successful bid for the son of Gleneagles at 80k when he went through the ring at the 2023 Craven Breeze-up sale – so not a home-bred then.
Of the trials we’ve seen so far for the Derby, none has been as impressive as this one. A winner on debut as a juvenile, Ambiente Friendly reappeared for the season when fourth to Jayarebe in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket last month.
Jayarebe disappointed at Chester last week, but his run was another of those where a horse sits outside a leader half a length back on a turning track and seems to get fed up with the idea. It certainly looked that way to me as Ryan controlled the pace on Capulet, going on to win with Jayarebe only third. I don’t think we should condemn him on that.
The twelve horses entered for the Dante Stakes will need to run to a good level to impress in the way Ambiente Friendly has from first run to second. His time was comfortably the best in the race for the past decade, and if the weather stays fair until Epsom, you’d have no fears of ground, trip or hills and cambers about this horse.
Fanshawe has had a wealth of high-class horses through his care, not least two Champion Hurdle winners in Royal Gait and Hors La Loi. He was also closely involved in the training of Stoute’s 1988 winner of that race, Kribensis, when assistant to the master trainer. There is no doubt that Ambiente Friendly represents both the owners’ and trainer’s best chance of winning the Derby, for which he is now an 8/1 chance, third only behind restored favourite City Of Troy (3/1) and Arabian Crown (7/2).
While there was all the excitement going on at Lingfield, I preferred to go to watch one of my favourite handicaps over at Ascot, the Victoria Cup, and with all 21 runners coming in a single group towards the stands side, it had an element of fairness not always associated with the straight track there.
I’d been in contact with Charlie Fellowes earlier and he reckoned his new recruit The Wizard Of Eye had shown so much speed at home he worried it would stay the seven furlongs. Held up at the back by Tom Marquand, who must have had a magic wand rather a whip, so adept was he in finding the gaps, he wended his way to get up on the line. Don’t be shocked if we see him in graded sprints, probably stopping off at the Wokingham on the way at the Royal meeting.
If Jayarebe hadn’t come up to expectations last week, another of Sam Sangster’s spectacularly successful yearling buys certainly did. The Showcasing filly Kathmandu went to Longchamp for the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas), set a fast pace and was only caught on the line, losing out by a head.
The 45/1 chance, trained by Brian Meehan, had been third last time in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket when a 40/1 shot. She picked up more than £100k for second place, double her purchase price. Sam owns the filly in conjunction with Ed Babington and they can expect to make a huge profit at the sales even if she doesn’t win anything more. No doubt the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot is on the agenda.
In the colts’ Classic half an hour later Roger Teal’s Dancing Gemini came fast but half a length too late to catch Metropolitan. The St James’s Palace Stakes is his obvious target.
I looked at course, distance, and course and distance National Hunt data a few months back, writes Dave Renham. I will revisit this area now but switch my attention to the flat. I will ignore all-weather racing to write about that in the future. Hence, these findings apply only to UK turf flat racing, and I have looked at the last eight full seasons from 2016 to 2023.
I mentioned last time that there is a perception that course form is necessary; likewise, some see it as a positive if the horse is proven over the distance. In the National Hunt article, previous course winners/distance winners/C&D winners won more often than horses that had not won at the course/distance/C&D. They offered slightly better value despite the market adjusting quite well. Let us see if we see a similar pattern ‘on the level’.
Course winners
I will start with course winners. As we know, courses in the UK are not uniform – the topography for each course varies. Hence, one would assume some horses act better on specific courses than others. I would like to begin by comparing the strike rates of course winners versus horses that have not won at the course (non-course winners). Both win and each way figures are shown:
Course winners clearly perform better from a win and a win-and-placed perspective.
Regarding returns to SP, course winners fare slightly better, although the difference between the two is barely 2p in the £. To Betfair SP, the roles are reversed, with non-course winners doing a little better. As we have seen in various previous scenarios, the betting market seems good at making the necessary adjustments.
Looking at the non-course winner group first, if we split them into two as follows:
1 - those who have previously run at the course
and
2 - those who have not run at the course previously,
then we see that those who have not run at the course have been slightly more successful in terms of win percentage, with an 11.3% strike rate compared to 9.9%. In terms of returns, however, they are virtually identical.
One statistic worth sharing is that horses with no course wins which have raced 15 or more times at the track in question have won just one race from 81 attempts. Such horses are rare but it looks like any future qualifier can be discounted.
Concentrating now on course winners, I would like to start by looking at horses with just one previous course win to their name.
Course Wins = 1
I will split the performances by number of runs they have had at the track. The reason behind this is simple: you could get some horses that have raced once at the course and hence are one from one, whereas you could get horses that are one from 10 or even one from 20. A horse that has just won once in 20 attempts at the same venue will not scream out as a horse that is particularly suited to the track.
Let me share the win strike rates for different numbers of course run groupings:
The graph clearly shows that one-time course winners with fewer previous course runs win more often. Horses that have won once at the track but raced there ten or more times have scored less than once in every 14 attempts.
Let's see if the A/E indices correlate with these strike rates:
The graph shows a strong relationship between the A/E indices and the strike rates. Any potential value in one-time course winners tails off once we hit seven or more previous course runs.
Course Wins = 2
I will look at the same idea for horses that have won twice previously at the course. Once again, I’ll start with the win strike rates for different numbers of course run groupings:
We see the same pattern as before. It should also be noted that horses with two course wins and that had previously raced at the course either twice or thrice broke even to BSP (ROI was –0.4%).
Onto the A/E indices now:
The two to three previous course run group has a very solid A/E index at 0.92. The 10+ group spoils the correlation, but if we look at the complete stats, we can clearly see that the returns to BSP indicate that the fewer previous course runs, the better.
Losses become significant once we get to seven or more previous course runs.
Course Wins = 3+
I will now lump together horses with three or more course wins to give a decent sample size. This time though, as we have different numbers of previous course wins, it makes sense to share the data using past course win percentages. Hence, a horse with three wins from 5 visits would sit at 60%, a horse with four wins from 25 would sit at 16%, and so on. This time I will go straight to a table showing all key stats in one area:
Horses with three-plus course wins and who have previously won at least two-thirds of their starts at the course - the 67-100% group - have by far the best overall figures. They have a much higher strike rate and the best A/E index and have made a small profit to BSP.
We have seen the same pattern across all data sets to date: horses with the best course win rates (based on all previous course runs) perform the best.
Before moving on to distance winners, I want to examine the results for individual courses. To do this, I will look at the A/E indices for horses that have won at least once at the relevant course. Here are the courses with the ten highest A/E indices.
Haydock and Epsom have particularly strong indices. Epsom is a unique track, and it will come as no surprise to many that it appears so high on the list. Two courses that have not made the cut, and which I expected to, are Brighton and Chester. They were joint 14th on the list with an A/E index of 0.87.
Three courses have recorded an A/E index of below 0.80: Yarmouth (0.77), Thirsk (0.75), and Carlisle (0.75). Wetherby also has a figure below 0.80, at just 0.71, but the data set is too small to be confident in at this stage.
Distance winners
It is time to switch our attention to distance winners. As with course winners, I will start by comparing the strike rates of distance winners versus horses that have not won at a distance (non-distance winners). Both win and each way figures are shown once more:
There is a slight edge to distance winners, but they have virtually identical A/E indices at 0.87 and 0.86, respectively. When looking ‘generally,’ winning previously at a distance does not offer much of an edge in turf flat racing. However, it is always worth digging a little bit deeper.
Let me compare past distance win percentages by grouping all past distance winners. Here are the findings:
Horses who have previously won at least two-thirds of their starts at a particular distance did best, and showed a very solid-looking A/E index of 0.92 with losses of just 2p in the £. This presents a similar pattern to when I combined the 3+ course win data earlier, especially when considering that top group.
Next, I decided to examine whether it makes a difference how recent the last distance win was. This is what the stats told me:
Unfortunately, this data offers little, with the only discernible general pattern being that the more recent the win, the more likely a horse is to repeat that win. That may very well be conflated with the fact that recent winners overall are more likely to win again the recent non-winners.
After further digging, I discovered the most interesting findings concerning distance winners.
1. Looking at horses aged 5+, if you restrict this cohort to having won once at a distance on their only start at that distance, they have proved profitable to follow. Hence, if backing ALL 5yos and older with one distance win from one distance start when having their second start at the relevant distance, you would have won 133 races from 862 qualifiers (SR 15.4%) for a BSP profit of £220.34 (ROI +25.6%). These runners have an A/E index of 1.01 and have been profitable for the past five years.
2. Horses with three wins from three starts at the same distance have proved profitable to follow when they have attempted to make it four distance wins out of four. They have won over 28% of the time (53 wins from 188) for a BSP profit of £62.52 (ROI +33.3%). The A/E index stands at an impressive 1.13.
3. Horses aged nine or older that have achieved two distance wins in their careers have proved to be poor investments, regardless of how many distance runs they have had. This group has provided 921 runners of which only 56 won, hitting a win percentage of just 6.1%. Backing all qualifiers to £1 level stakes would have lost you £216.64, which equates to over 23 pence in the £.
4. Two-year-olds with two or more distance wins have made a profit when attempting the distance again. They have 144 wins from 891 (SR 16.2%) for a BSP profit of £38.23 (ROI +4.3%).
Course and distance (C&D) winners
It is now time to combine the two elements. I will start by comparing the strike rates of C&D winners versus horses that have not won over C&D (non-C&D winners). Both win and each way figures are shown once more:
These are the highest win percentages we have seen for the ‘winning’ group to date, but only just. The returns to SP have been virtually identical, with a wafer-thin edge to C&D winners; but, to BSP, non-C&D winners have proved better value by nearly 6p in the £ (4% loss compared with 10% loss).
On to the win strike rates in terms of the number of C&D wins. Here are the splits:
The results for 4+ C&D winners are the reverse of the National Hunt findings. In NH races, horses that had won four or more times over course and distance scored 15.5% of the time, procuring a healthy return of over 41p in the £. On the flat, this group scored less than 10% of the time, losing over 34p in the £.
It is past C&D win percentages I want to look at next. I am using the same percentage bands/groupings as before:
We see the usual trend of the strike rates dropping as the C&D win percentages drop. Once again, the best overall stats are the group with the highest C&D Win% of 67% or more. It is possible that some value bets could be found within this group.
Individual course C&D data is the next port of call. Courses are listed alphabetically with ‘positive’ A/E indices (0.93 and above) shown in green and ‘negative’ indices (0.80 or lower) shown in blue. Profit/losses have been calculated to BSP less 5% commission:
Just two of the six ‘green’ courses (Chester and Newbury) managed a blind profit to BSP. Generally, though, the takeaway should be to avoid C&D winners from the courses in blue, especially Carlisle, Thirsk, Windsor, and York.
Finally, I want to share the trainers who have performed best with past C&D winners when comparing their performance to their non-C&D winners. Seven trainers are listed in the table below, comparing their win percentages for the two respective groups:
These seven all perform above the norm when it comes to past C&D winners. Five of the seven have produced blind profits to BSP with their C&D winners, with six hitting A/E indices of 1.00 or bigger. Here are the individual figures for these past C&D winners:
There are some solid statistics there. It will be interesting to see how these trainers fare in the next few years with their past C&D winners.
**
Summary
To conclude, previous course winners, distance winners and C&D winners clearly win more often than horses that have not won at the course/distance/C&D. However, evaluating the better value is more complicated. Generally, course, and course and distance, winners give better results than do distance winners.
I will leave you with what I feel are the most interesting findings:
1. For horses which have won once or twice previously at the course, stick to those horses that have raced six or fewer times at the venue.
2. With horses that have won three times or more at the course, focus on horses that have won at least two-thirds of their races (67%+).
3. Past winners returning to Haydock, Epsom or Ripon can be seen as a positive.
4. Horses that have won at least two-thirds of their races (67%+) at today's race distance are the best distance group to concentrate on (losses of only 2p in the £).
5. Avoid horses that have won four or more times over C&D. They tend to be over-bet.
6. Chester and Newbury are courses where C&D winners generally perform above the norm.
7. Be wary of past C&D winners at Carlisle, Thirsk, Windsor or York.
8. The stables of Mick and David Easterby, Charles Hills, Brian Ellison, Mick Appleby, Iain Jardine, Bryan Smart and Ed Walker have all done well with previous C&D winners.
When they get beat, the Coolmore Classic hotpots, especially in the 2000 Guineas, they make a proper job of it, writes Tony Stafford. Auguste Rodin’s capitulation a year ago, preceding as it did two Derby victories, had a variety of explanations to soften the apparent finality of it. City Of Troy’s tame drift away from the action from a long way out, may be less easy to explain.
I wasn’t the only one with egg on my face, having championed his two runs on the same piece of Suffolk real estate, albeit a few furlongs apart, last year. The Superlative Stakes win from Haatem was, well, superlative. His Dewhurst romp was a tour de force, leading all the way then sprinting up the last furlong with Haatem again well behind.
So how could Haatem turn that around so emphatically, third behind only previously unbeaten Godolphin horse Notable Speech and his own stable-companion, second favourite Rosallion? Just over three lengths behind Charlie Appleby’s second and William Buick’s first 2000 winner, he was now 13 lengths in front of the odds-on favourite, who trailed in ninth of eleven.
Aidan O’Brien professed himself shocked and so would most of the massive crowd, one which gridlocked the always slow-motion Newmarket High Street for hours before the 1.10 p.m. meeting start. Talk might have been of records but there were a few there when Nijinsky started his Triple Crown journey more than 50 years ago, too, and not quite as many cars either!
The filming media behaved as if they were there to attend a Royal family meltdown or a PM taking his leave in front of Number Ten. Apparently unflappable as he was being saddled, there was a paparazzi feel as the lenses pointed his way right in his eyeline as the final touches were being completed. Agitated Newmarket staff shooed away many of the regular Coolmore supporters across to the other side of the horse path, but the cameras were allowed to stand their ground.
Considering this was a race with several previously unbeaten opponents, including the winner – three for three at Kempton, so making his turf debut – his price was either dangerously short (as it proved) or even a little generous, given the expectations.
If anyone can bring a horse back from such an unexpected reverse, Aidan O’Brien is the man and he has before, but talk of another Frankel now looks fanciful.
It’s four weeks to the Derby and we were all talking in the paddock beforehand that his pedigree is more that of a Derby horse than a Guineas type. We’ll have to see. He’s 8/1 now. Last year after a similar reverse, Auguste Rodin was only 3/1 and we know what happened at Epsom with him!
The Coolmore boys stayed up late on Saturday night to watch the Kentucky Derby in which they had two interests, a 100% involvement in second-favourite Sierra Leone and 75% of the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness. Todd’s runner faded away after a prominent start but the Chad Brown trainee Sierra Leone must be rated a very unlucky loser.
Held up on the rail around a dozen lengths behind the pace set by Track Phantom until making a move at the end of the back straight, jockey Tyler Gaffalione found himself in a tight position around the turn and was forced to go very wide.
Meanwhile Mystik Dan under Brian Hernandez made a run for home on the rail while Sierra Leone began his wide, late and rather erratic surge in company with the Japanese-trained Forever Young on his inside.
By the time they reached the post, the camera showed there were pixels between the trio and a verdict of nose, nose in favour of Mystik Dan, trained in Lexington by Kenny McPeek, gained the verdict. That nose makes a massive difference: initially £1.7 million between the two top prizes but also his potential as a stallion when he departs racing, presumably to Coolmore’s US branch, Ashford Stud in Lexington. Ashford is home of the only two Triple Crown winners of the last half century, American Pharoah and City of Troy’s sire Justify. They expected two more – one here and one over there.
It truly was the Maktoum family’s weekend, for after the success of Sheikh Mohammed’s Notable Speech on Saturday, Ahmed Al Maktoum, his younger brother won the 1000 Guineas with 28/1 outsider Elmalka, trained by Roger Varian and ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.
In a wide open market, in contrast to the one-eyed appearance of Saturday’s Classic, the fillies’ equivalent offered the prospect of a quintet of potential winners as they came to the last furlong. Until just before the line, two young overseas trainers were entitled to believe their fillies would win.
Ramatuelle (Christopher Head, France) looked sure to hold on but she was challenged late, initially by Porta Fortuna, Donnacha O’Brien/Tom Marquand, but only too briefly as Elmalka finished fastest of all having trailed the field early in the 16-runner contest.
Two others merit a mention. Fourth under a typical, but in this case just too late, Jamie Spencer ride was the David Menuisier filly Tamfana, while Ylang Ylang kept on well for fifth under Ryan Moore, the Aidan O’Brien inmate not getting the clearest of runs. She’ll be set for running over further, maybe in the Musidora next time at York – just guessing on that one.
Elmalka, a daughter of Kingman, was third previously in the Fred Darling Stakes (or whatever appellation it now goes by) at Newbury, where she had rallied to finish close up behind Folgario and Regal Jubilee. The Fred Darling runner-up also started at 28/1 yesterday but finished well down the field for the Gosdens. No doubt Marco Botti, trainer of Folgario, must have wondered why she wasn’t in the line-up.
Unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile initially in Italy (four wins) and then one in France, trained by Marco’s relative Stefano, she has the Coronation Stakes as her sole entry at this stage. Six races unbeaten will make her an interesting wildcard into that always-significant Royal Ascot midsummer Group 1.
I must thank the Editor for drawing my attention to, and therefore helping me follow, this tortuous link. Back in 2007 the most impressive winner of the Coronation Stakes, and a filly that never raced again, was Indian Ink. Trained by Richard Hannon senior, ridden by Richard Hughes, and in the colours of Raymond Tooth – she won by six lengths slaughtering such as Finsceal Beo, and the rest.
Yesterday, in the colours of Clipper Logistics in the 40k newcomers’ race for 2yo fillies, her daughter River Seine (by Soldier’s Call) ran a highly promising second for Karl Burke to Godolphin’s Mountain Breeze, Buick’s pick of three for Charlie even if she sported the nominally third-choice red cap. River Seine could well make a visit to the scene of her mother’s finest hour, but she will have to find a fair bit to turn yesterday’s form around. Karl Burke will give it a go, no doubt.
Of all the performances over the two days at Newmarket, I have to point to Hughie Morrison’s Ben and Sir Martyn Arbib homebred Stay Alert, who ran away with the 1m1f Dahlia Stakes, tracking the Gosdens’ 6/4 favourite Running Lion into the dip and then drawing away with the rest trailing behind.
Hughie Morrison kept her to high-class opposition last year when her best performance had been a two-length second to Via Sistina in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh. Most observers thought she was an unlucky loser that day and the subsequent exploits of the winner which precipitated a sale for 2.7 million guineas at last year’s December sale made her the one to beat yesterday.
Via Sistina was bought by Australian interests and has already won and been second, the latter in the Queen Elizabeth Cup at Randwick in Sydney last month. Her debut win at £310k was worth more than either Guineas race and her second place of £454,000 in the QE Cup was only 130 grand short of the combined total of our first two Classics.
If she had won, the prize would have been £1,577,000. No wonder my good friend and one of the most experienced observers of the racing scene here and overseas for many years says, “We’re a laughing stock! Just get rid of off-course bookmakers – they won’t let anyone have a proper bet anyway – and our racing, which is the best in the world, will take off.”
* Just a note. While talking of bookmakers who won’t take a proper bet, I’ve just received a copy of well-known former Rails bookmaker Stephen Little’s entertaining autobiography. He was someone who did take a bet as “From Bicycle to Bentley” reveals.
The foreword is by his long-time friend Sir Mark Prescott and it’s published by Pen and Sword Books in Barnsley S70 2AS. My pal Sir Rupert Mackeson has been instrumental in getting Pen and Sword to fill what had become an alarming gap in the production of books with a horse racing theme. Well done, Rupert. As much of it overlaps my time in racing, for me it’s a great reminder of those wonderful days.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NotableSpeech_2000Guineas_2024.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2024-05-06 08:22:442024-05-06 08:26:07Monday Musings: Of Bubbles Burst
It's a crazy time of year with the weather as to and fro as the racing. Today, for example, sees the continuation of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland, the hunter chase season finale at Cheltenham, and the start of the Guineas Festival at Newmarket. Truly something for everyone!
In that spirit, and sneaking in before the weekend Classics are run, I'd like to share a quick look back at the National Hunt season just finished through the lens of this site and its racing interests.
SR Ratings
Let's start with our SR ratings, provided by Peter May, and available for every UK hurdle and chase race during the season proper - September to April inclusive.
During that period last year, SR rated 2604 races from which the winner was top rated on 584 occasions - a strike rate of 22.43% or two winners for every nine top rated horses. Pretty good. But, of course, here at geegeez.co.uk we're much more interested in profit than winners, or both together when we can get them! So how did SR fare in the Bottom Line Stakes? Overall, a £1 stake on all SR top rated runners would have returned £208, an 8% ROI. That's at Betfair SP.
Here's the breakdown by race type:
As you can see, handicaps were where it was at, and specifically handicap hurdles. These were buoyed by a small number of big-priced winners, but plenty of SR top rated are big-priced runners.
However... I wouldn't advocate anybody used these numbers blind; rather, I'm simply highlighting that they're a robust aid to value hunting. This being a little hindsight unhelpful, I got to thinking about applications for the flat turf season.
Top rated flat turf runners at industry SP lost 9% over the past year. Not terrible given how BOG or BSP will bring that close to level pegging; but a simple tweak to only look at prominent or front-runner horses brings this to break even at industry SP.
Furthermore, focusing on the top three SR, which can be found using Bet Finder - see bottom right box in image below - gives a positive ROI of 1% at industry SP when they're prominent or front-run.
A couple of important things to say here:
There are a lot of horses to check out. In the image above, I'd not filtered by race type to get flat turf only. So there are 'only' 56 possible qualifiers - and potential bets - today. Obviously, that's a lot
Crucially, we don't know a horse's run style before the race. But... by focusing on leaders or habitually prominent runners we improve our odds of being on the right ones.
Sadly, there's no silver bullet - I know, it was a crushing blow to me, too 😉 - but there are lots of ways to ensure we're generally on the right ones.
Geegeez Syndicate Horses
You may or may not be aware that I syndicate a few racehorses through geegeez.co.uk, mainly over jumps. And the current crop have done really rather well... these are them:
Konigin Isabella
Let's talk about this mare first, in training with Anthony Honeyball. To be honest, she's been disappointing and it's mainly because she might not have the requisite stamina for two miles. I loved her pedigree before agreeing to syndicate and, on this occasion, I was wrong. Isfahan is her sire and he was a crack German middle distance performer from a great family. But he's barely had a runner in Britain (though one of his did make top lot at a Yorton Farm sale), and Konigin Isabella's dam wasn't as stoutly bred. Of course, there are lots of examples of one half of the pedigree bestowing sufficient stamina but this doesn't look like being one of them.
If it ever stops raining, we'll try on a sharp two mile track on good ground and hope remains that she can find the reserves to see it out.
Coquelicot
Another mare, also trained by Anthony, 'Cookie' was bought as a yearling in 2017 and has been the most wonderful horse I've ever been involved with. She's a half-sister to the very, very good dual purpose horse Heartbreak City - he won the Ebor, a handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival, and was agonisingly close in second in the Melbourne Cup.
Cookie had an inauspicious start, getting a slight injury as a two-year-old which meant we had to back off her. The original plan of running on the flat before going hurdling was scuppered before it started. Well, sort of.
She ended up running in National Hunt Flat races, and winning three of them including a Listed affair. As a hurdler since, she's won another Listed race this year, beating Aintree winner Kateira in the process, and was second in a further Listed contest over an inadequate trip, beating You Wear It Well in the process. Here's her full race record. As you can see, she's won eight races (including on the flat)! And she's placed on another nine occasions from 27 starts.
Next season will probably be her last and she'll make a fantastic broodmare after that.
Sure Touch
This lad is trained by Olly Murphy and was bred and formerly owned by Robert Waley-Cohen. Again, he has an incredible pedigree being by Yeats out of Liberthine, but you wouldn't have necessarily known that at the time we got involved. At that time, he'd just finished second in a Class 5 handicap hurdle at Hereford off a mark of 105. Two years later, he's won seven races for us and has a full form string of 11141223111. His rating has risen to 137 and he was a dominant winner of a Class 2 handicap chase at Perth last time.
We hope to aim him at the Summer Plate next and have an even more ambitious plan in mind thereafter, should he still be in good nick. He's been unbelievable to own and I owe Olly a huge debt of thanks for offering him to me/us. (Obviously I was taking a punt at the time, but oh boy, has it panned out).
Dartmoor Pirate
A new kid on the block, Dartmoor Pirate is another with a great page (Black Sam Bellamy ex Behra). His dam, although fairly old it should be said, had thrown two very high class hurdlers including a Grade 1 winner. This chap was cheaply bought - £16,000 - at the Goffs Store Sale by Anthony, and the plan was always to run in the valuable Newbury bumper specifically for graduates of this sale.
That he got there was a minor miracle in itself, and that he ran seventh of 19 - having gone the long way around the outside throughout - was a much better effort than it looked. With an inside trip, he'd have been in the first three. First time out this season, he disappointed us in another bumper, at Chepstow, as we thought he'd just about win. That race worked out well, however, and progressing to hurdles next time he showed what we thought we had by waltzing away with an 18-runner maiden hurdle by 11 lengths.
It is fair to say it wasn't the strongest race in the world but the manner of victory was exciting, all right! He then ran second to two smart novices, all three of those hurdle races at a sub-optimal two miles.
We stepped him up to what we think is his correct trip for the EBF Final, a Grade 3 handicap hurdle run at Sandown, and he finished an excellent fourth. The three in front of him were all ridden handily whereas we were mid-division, and the first three - indeed the first eight, bar us - were all aged six or seven. As a five-year-old we'd conceded maturity to those around us.
Dropping back to two miles wasn't the plan - we'd had a race at Sedgefield pencilled in but it was abandoned - and we bumped into a smart horse on his day in Panjari. But a great season from the Pirate with the promise of a good bit more next term when he'll go novice chasing. We hope that will be the making of him.
Luna Lux
And finally, Luna Lux. She is the most expensive horse I've bought - €50,000 (about £43,000) - and she, as you might have guessed by now, has a terrific pedigree. She's be Masked Marvel, sire of yesterday's Grade 1 winner and Stayers' Hurdle champ Teahupoo, out of a Listed-winning hurdler. She looks fantastic and we were super excited for her future...
...until she tried to kill herself out in the field. She's spent most of the early part of 2024 at the equine hospital in Newbury and has recently returned to Potwell Farm to complete her convalescence and begin her education. With a following wind, there will be no ill effects from that 'black swan' incident and she'll be able to fulfil her pedigree promise, whatever that might be. I'm massively excited about this filly!
*
I think across these five horses you can see almost the full spectrum of possibility for those of us not paying £300,000 for a once-raced point to point winner. It's fair to say we've been unbelievably lucky with a couple of them, Sure Touch in particular; but you also make your own luck to some degree by making smart decisions in terms of being in the right cohorts (prominent racers, good pedigrees... these things matter).
This summer I'll be adding one, perhaps two, store horses (unraced three-year-olds) to our jumps team, and if you'd like to know more please add your name to the geegeez syndicate interest list by filling in the form here.
Season Summary
So that was the jumps season at geegeez.co.uk. As the final performances play out at Punchestown, sights now set firmly on Newmarket and the Guineas Festival this weekend; then it's flat race action pretty much all the way. Stay tuned, and good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Cookie_Ascot_2022.jpg387830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2024-05-03 09:41:282024-05-03 10:40:58NH 2023/24 End of Term Report
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