Read all sorts of commentaries and tips across a range of racing disciplines on the most popular horse racing blog in Britain, from staff and guest writers.

Monday Musings: Welcoming Back Windsor

/in /by

Back in the 1970’s, one of the favourite trips for Home Counties racegoers was the New Year’s Day programme of jump racing at Windsor. The New Year’s Day Hurdle, a conditions race aimed at attracting potential Champion Hurdle winners, did so on its second running in 1975 with Comedy Of Errors, already winner of the 1973 edition at Cheltenham, soon to add a second a couple of months later.

The giant gelding, 17hh, won 23 of 48 career races, adding to his Cheltenham exploits for the great Fred Rimell, by taking both the Scottish and Welsh Champion Hurdles – in those days important weight-for-age races – as well as three consecutive Fighting Fifth Hurdles and a couple of Irish Sweeps Hurdles.

In his era, he supplanted Arkle as the horse that had won most National Hunt prizemoney in the UK and Ireland. He ended his days as Mercy Rimell’s (Fred’s widow) hack until his death aged 23 in 1990.

I was at Windsor for many of the New Year’s Day Hurdles and another notable winner was Royal Derbi in 1991. He was trained by the late Neville Callaghan and was an example of the difference in the racing structure in those days.

Originally trained by the highly talented David Wilson, the Scottish-born former Harrow schoolboy, who shares his alma mater like many other famous trainers, not least the two best-friend Williams, Haggas and Jarvis, and their Newmarket neighbour Sir Mark Prescott.

Wilson, who still advises the Gary/Josh Moore stable, waited until Royal Derbi’s first run in a handicap after three jogs round, to win a 17-runner three-year-old Windsor handicap by a couple of lengths with Brian Rouse in the saddle.

He was bought out of that seller by Callaghan and raced thereon for two seasons in the name of a Mr Lockhart. His first hurdles run – a successful one – came six weeks later, on August 12, when he won a match at Plumpton at 2/9, but only by a length.

Unlike now, when one NH season ends and the next begins 24 hours later at the end of April, the earliest start for jumping would be July 30 or 31, usually at Newton Abbot. So Neville was immediately on his bike with Royal Derbi who proved a very durable animal indeed.

Who would have imagined that by the middle of November, he had raced another eight times, all in novice hurdles, winning four of them? The last two of those victories were in a 25-runner field at Wetherby before beating 14 opponents at Chepstow. He wound up his year with a rare poor performance in Chepstow’s Finale Junior Hurdle, a big Triumph Hurdle guide then as now.

Early in 1989 he had another five hurdle races, winning three including a wide-margin defeat of subsequent Champion Hurdle runner-up Nomadic Way (Barry Hills). Only fourth in the Triumph Hurdle, he erased the memory of that with an easy victory in Punchestown’s Champion 4yo hurdle. Eight wins in 16 runs, all as a juvenile.

Nowadays a top candidate for the Triumph Hurdle will run twice or in rare circumstances four times, so sparse are the opportunities and so stringent the penalties for wins. Novices would have blanket penalties for multiple wins. Now seven previous victories could usually entail penalties of 42lb: they don’t like you winning races!

After that demanding campaign, Callaghan found a new owner, replacing Mr Lockhart, and Royal Derbi next appeared in the colours of the pre-Coolmore version of Michael Tabor. He was a great money-spinner for the owner and trainer, when his final career total for flat and jumps combined was 17 wins from 66 starts. His New Year’s Day Hurdle win was by six lengths from the smart Aldino in 1991.

While writing this piece I waited until I could watch the opening three races (two hurdles and one chase) on Windsor’s pioneering first jumps card back after a gap of 20 years. In truth, it was another six years longer, as it was only during the rebuilding of Ascot racecourse between 2004 and 2006 that Windsor was taken out of mothballs – the original closure coming in 1998.

I was wondering how the hurdles track would be different from the flat circuit where races longer than one mile imitate Fontwell’s chase course with a figure-of-eight. It looked at first sight yesterday that they are often travelling in a different direction to what they do on the level but that may be an optical illusion. I need to take a better look at the map. The bends looked sharp enough and like on the flat, they do turn left and right-handed at different stages.

[Editor’s note: here are the revised track configurations for hurdle and chase]

 

 

 

The ground at Windsor should be suitable for winter racing and yesterday’s surface of good to soft looked very appealing. The weather is undoubtedly warmer than was the case in the late 1990’s when frost caused the abandonment of three consecutive runnings of the New Year meeting.

Yesterday started with a couple of Henderson hotpots getting beaten early on, and favourite backers were not experiencing an initial punting panacea as another odds-on shot bit the dust later. Once it settles down, Windsor will be a good addition to the jumps fixture list, and I can’t wait to go. It might not be the same as midsummer Monday nights, but any racing is better than none to my mind.

Now all we need is for Jockey Club racecourses to free up Nottingham. The City Trial Hurdle in February fitted well in the Champion Hurdle build-up for suitable horses but Nottingham closed to jumping after 1994 and operates with two distinct tracks, one for spring and autumn – where the jumpers used to race - the other as their blurb goes, “for high summer”.

This year, Nottingham had the misfortune of losing four of its 23 planned fixtures, three of them on the inside course. Other tracks also suffered from the awful weather which came at the most inconvenient times for trainers. Despite this, I hope that if the Windsor project proves a success, then other flat-only tracks like Nottingham might reconsider.

It may be too much to ask Cheltenham, another Jockey Club course, to waive its New Year’s Day fixture, but after a New Year’s Eve skinful, Londoners would not need to get up quite so early to travel to the banks of the Thames rather than suffer the crowded M40 with hungover drivers as the trains are sure not to be running a proper service.  <I do realise other people live in different directions and distances from both tracks>.

****

I had a small theoretical bet when I met the Editor of this piece in the week and think I came out just on the wrong side. Matt Bisogno’s Geegeez syndicates have done amazingly well and last Sunday he travelled over to the Boulta point-to-point near Cork to watch Gee Force Flyer make his racecourse debut in the second division of the four-year-old maiden race.

Matt was offered the son of Jet Away by Olly Murphy whose plan was to send him across to Ireland to be broken and trained for exposure in what can be the goldmine offered to winners of Irish points. He didn’t have too much trouble syndicating him.

Ridden by John Barry, Gee Force Flyer mover up nicely in the last mile, disputed the lead over the last fence and drew away near the line for a two-length victory. We should be seeing him under the Murphy banner in the New Year. The bet arose as several of the principals from the Sunday card were in the Tattersalls Cheltenham auction after racing on Friday, but not Gee Force Flyer who is adamantly not for sale.

The runner-up was. I reckoned he would go for “at least 75k”, Matt was much more reticent, suggesting “around 25k”. On a day when the runner-up of the first division of the four-year-old maiden went for 160k, our boy was led out unsold at 48k. I make it a small win for Matt!

- TS

Roving Reports: Compare and Contrast

/in /by

First of all, an apology; it's been well over two months since the last of these course missives which is very slack of me, writes David Massey. So I'd like to apologise to Geegeez readers for this tardiness, and to our dear leader, Matt, who I bumped into at the recent HWPA awards. It was good to see the Racing Post win an award or two, they barely win anything, do they? Anyway, I was two seats down from Jeremy Kyle and you'll be delighted to hear he's every bit as entertaining away from the telly as off it. Read what you like into that.

The reason for all this dither and delay, as Boris might have said before he vanished, is simple. I am, of course, in the process of setting up and getting Trackside off the ground alongside my new work-wife Vicki and, frankly, she's very demanding. (Not like that, you filthy lot. Get your minds out the gutter.) The last three months have been something of a whirlwind - if I'm not at a fixture doing paddock reporting then there's notes to type up, or Vicki's cracking the admin whip at me, which is very disconcerting.

I'm not really very business minded, see. A couple of weeks ago a well-known bookmaker's rep offered me a fresh account in exchange for the Trackside services. I was all for it - who wouldn't be, eh? - before Vicki stepped in at the last minute and demanded a five-figure sum instead. See what I mean? I was ready to trade for some magic beans but no, she is insistent people pay actual money for our services. Spoils all my fun, she does.

Anyway, you don't want to know all about that. I'll deal with her as we go along. What you want to know about is where I've been and what I've seen.

Well, as I suspected might be the case, leaving the rails behind and seeing more of the actual courses does offer pause for reflection. I've been to Cheltenham twice already this year, for the October and November meetings. On the plus side, getting your 10,000 steps a day in is easy, but getting around, less so.

It's very much the Insta generation at Cheltenham these days, I'm finding. A race will be in progress but that's taking second place to showing others what a great time you're having by constantly taking selfies, ideally with the course in the background. We're told they're engaging with it all, but the number of times I hear people cheering for a number, not a name, rather suggests otherwise. Perhaps I'm old and wizened (no, really) but if you're gonna shout for something, shout for your horse, or the jockey, not the saddlecloth.

In the interests of some balance, I do think the Invades student days, which seem to be very well run, are a good thing. If you get 5000 students in and take a 10% retention rate, that's 500 you've got coming back another day when it isn't a student day. That's how we build the future, I think.

I contrast that to Wetherby and Charlie Hall Chase Day. Whilst they were in the paddock and walking round for the main event,  they were showing the big race from Down Royal on the screen next to the parade ring. Every pair of eyes was transfixed as little Hewick led them a merry dance, cat-like at every fence, and by the time we have reached two out, the crowd at Wetherby was clearly on his side. Envoi Allen joins him at the last but like the terrier he is he won't lie down, and he's getting every encouragement from Yorkshire to stick his head back in front. The disappointment when he fails by half a length to get back up can literally be heard in a collective sigh from the crowd, but that's swiftly followed by people chattering to each other about what a great race they've just witnessed. Engagement? By the truckload, if you ask me.

Anyway, wasn't it great to see The Real Whacker bounce back to form? He looked an absolute picture beforehand, the best I'd seen him for some while. I suspect there's another big race in him before the season is out.

We've even had a glimpse of the Insta mob at Southwell this autumn. No, really. We had a Ladies Evening there on a Saturday night a few weeks back and the fairly youngish crowd were in full selfie mode. One young lady had a £2 bet, came back up ten minutes later and asked if she'd won. I told her the race hadn't started yet. "OH, WHY DOES HORSE RACING TAKE SO LONG?" she exclaimed. I told her she should be here on a Monday night in January when time literally goes backwards. You have a few races, think it's about half seven, look at your watch and realise it's only just gone five. Now those are long.

I've had my first visit to Ludlow this season too. Like Fakenham, Ludlow is hours from anywhere in the UK and you stumble on the track almost by accident if you take the back way via Much Wenlock, the home of the Olympic Games. (Yes it is, Google it.) The first you know about it is when the car suddenly starts going sideways. There's nothing wrong with your car, you're merely driving over one of the huge mats they have on the road crossings, and the vehicle turns into a giant steerable crab. Great fun. If you've not been to Ludlow, you should - decent racing, good grub you aren't charged a fortune for, one of the best rooftop views in the game, and a blue phone booth with The Rules Of Racing in it. It's worth the long drive. Just don't do that and then Fakenham the next day.

The good lady and I have also made our yearly excursion to the West Country to enjoy the Haldon Gold Cup/Badger Beer double-header. It was a real shame Exeter's card cut up so badly on the day but we did get to see one of our favourite horses in training, the wonderful JPR One, win the big race. He's just a gorgeous horse to look at, always full of enthusiasm for the game, and he does look to have come on again physically from last year. He ran again at Sandown in the Tingle Creek and was far from disgraced in finishing third to Jonbon, and with Djelo, second at Exeter, winning the Peterborough Chase the next day, that looks a solid piece of form now.

The drive to Wincanton on the Saturday takes us through one of the best-named villages in England, the wonderful Queen Camel. I'm fairly sure I've backed a few of those this year. When I'm in charge of things mares handicap hurdles will become consigned to history. The last time I backed a winner in one of those contests I got paid in tanners, I swear.

Anyway, we were also at Sandown at the weekend and my word, was it ever cold and windy. I'm amazed the Saturday fixture was on. Outside our hotel that morning was a sign advertising a steak house. Only thing was the steakhouse was about half a mile away, so far had the sign been blown in the night. Foolishly I'd left my Equidry coat at home but Vicki was wearing hers - a present for her birthday the day before - although she hadn't worked out how the zip worked. She might have a sharp business mind but she's useless with fasteners. Can't have everything. I think our big takeaway from the day was how very quiet Jonbon was before the Tingle Creek, a contrast to his usual exuberant self. It didn't stop him, though. Is he growing up a bit? On this, you'd have to say yes.

It's looking like a quiet week ahead with Leicester underwater already, although I'll be at Warwick on Thursday before moving on to Cheltenham for the weekend. Vicki is staying at home, which is bad news for her if I'm offered a new betting account at any point over those three days. Ah, she won't even know. Anyone want a bobble hat?

Say hello if you see me anywhere, won't you?

 - DM

Seeking Future Profit from Last Day P’s

/in /by

Did you know that over 9% of National Hunt runners in the UK are pulled up? That equates to 15,000 horses when looking at a UK National Hunt data set covering the period from 1st Jan 2019 to 30th November 2024, writes Dave Renham.

In this article I am going to see if any patterns emerge from horses that return to the track in a National Hunt race having been pulled up on their most recent start. Profits/losses will be quoted to Betfair SP (BSP).

Pulled Up LTO by Race Code

Firstly, let us look at the race type last time out (LTO) comparing hurdle races with chases. [It should be noted that 93 horses were pulled up in NH flat races (bumpers) LTO of which only three went on to win next time (SR 3.3%). That small subset of runners lost a whopping 75p in the £ to BSP].

Onto the LTO hurdle races versus LTO chases splits:

 

 

We need to be careful when looking at raw stats like this, especially if majoring on the profit and loss column. Profits can be easily skewed using BSP as there are occasionally huge prices winning. This can often totally change the bottom line. Hence, I thought it would be prudent to use a price cap on the pulled-up runners LTO to offer a fairer comparison. Specifically, I have chosen to narrow the qualifiers only to horses that were returned at an Industry SP of 8/1 on that last day run. That is, they were expected to run well rather than be pulled up.

The change in the splits now is quite noteworthy:

 

 

This is quite a change from the first table. Now there are healthy returns for horses that were pulled up when racing over hurdles LTO having been priced 8/1 or shorter in that pulled up contest. Betting all such runners cleared nearly 22p for every £1 bet.

There were still some big priced winners that helped to create those returns but, when focusing on horses that were priced BSP 5.0 or less in this follow-up run yielded an impressive 35% winners for a profit of £22.49 (ROI +12.4%). Therefore, this group of runners still made a profit with their shorter priced qualifiers.

It seems that horses that were pulled up in a hurdle race LTO when having an ISP of 8/1 or less in that specific contest have been good value on their follow-up start. In fact, if we look at this subset of runners that returned to a hurdle race next time the figures are even better:

 

 

Not only that, but five of the six years turned a profit to BSP. The graph below shows the yearly return on investment (ROI%) for this group of runners:

 


 

I would not necessarily advocate backing such qualifiers ‘blind’ in future but it seems that over this recent time frame it is likely that many/most of these runners have gone off at higher than their true price. Betting is about getting value, and the stats suggest that these runners have offered good value.

 

Pulled Up LTO by DSLR

I next want to switch attention to days since that last pulled up run (DSLR). I have adjusted the days off track splits to try and give enough runners in each grouping as well as using sensible periodicities. The table includes all race types/LTO race types:

 

 

As you may have noticed, I have added a Place% column. This is just to highlight that the 151+ days group had not only the best win strike rate, but the best win & placed SR% too. Sticking with this group all of which were off for around five months or more, as the table indicates they have secured a big profit.

This figure is badly skewed, however, as there were nine 100/1+ winners on Betfair. That said, it should also be noted that to Industry SP this group of runners lost 19p in the £ less than all the other groups combined, making them the best option by some margin. Indeed, if we avoid the really big BSP prices and look at a BSP of 19.0 (18/1) or lower, the 151+ days off group still secured a steady profit of £111.46 (ROI +8.3%).

The other main finding from ‘days since last run’ is the poor returns of the 10 days or less group. They lost nearly 36p for every £1 wagered during the study period.

 

Pulled Up LTO by Going

Moving on, I would like to examine what effect, if any, the going LTO had. My perception was that we might expect to see more runners being pulled up on heavy ground, so these runners potentially had a 'better' excuse. I looked first at the A/E indices of LTO pulled up horses based on the going LTO. Here are the figures:

 


 

As the graph shows, horses that raced on heavy ground LTO ended up clearly being the best value out of the five groups next time. Their figure of 0.97 is close to the magic A/E index of 1.00. I will now share both the Industry SP and the BSP Return on Investment percentages which follow a similar pattern:

 


 

Horses pulled up on heavy ground LTO lost just under 11p in the £ to Industry SP, while the other four going descriptions showed far worse returns. When we look at the BSP figures the ‘LTO heavy group’ made a positive return overall:

 


All this points to the fact that some horses that were pulled up LTO on heavy ground may be worth another chance.

I am sure you have also noticed on these graphs the poor performance of horses that were pulled up LTO on good to firm ground. As you would expect their win to runs record is poor but to be fair there were only 123 qualifiers so a small sample size in comparison. Having said that only two of those 123 went onto win next time!

 

Pulled Up LTO by Number of Race Non-Completions

My next port of call was to look at something I have never looked at before and that is the number of horses that failed to complete the course LTO in the race that contained any of our pulled up LTO runners. Hence these ‘non-completers’ would include not just horses that may have been pulled up in that race, but those who fell LTO, unseated LTO, and so on.

To be clear, I was still only looking at the next time out results of horses that had been pulled up LTO. Here is what I found:

 

 

To explain this table a little further, the ‘1’ group contains pulled up horses LTO that were the only horse in their specific race that failed to complete. I would have expected those figures to be poor, and they are.

As can be seen, once we get to four or more non-completers in a race, the next time out performance of any LTO pulled up runner improves. This makes sense as the more horses that failed to complete a race, the more likely that there may have been an underlying reason why so many failed to finish. Examples I can think of include particularly testing conditions (which correlates with the LTO heavy stats seen earlier), or possibly the race was run too quickly from the start and therefore tiring horses either made late mistakes or just ran out of gas. There will be other reasons but both of the above are logical to me and I’m confident both are valid.

 

Pulled Up LTO by Trainer

The last main area I want to examine is trainer performance with horses that were pulled up LTO. Trainers with more than 100 qualifiers have been put in the table and I have ordered it alphabetically:

 

 

15 trainers in the list made a profit with their LTO pulled up runners to BSP, of which seven almost managed a profit to Industry SP. There are some weird and wonderful profit figures for some – again mainly down to the odd huge price going in.

Of all in the list, Paul Nicholls caught my eye most, mainly due to his excellent strike rate of nearly 19%. He has proved profitable, too, returning just over 13p in the £. If a runner from the Nicholls stable had been pulled up on soft or heavy ground LTO they bounced back well scoring 18 times from 93 (SR 19.4%) for a profit on 'the machine' of £48.67 (ROI +52.3%).

Nicky Henderson’s profit figure has been skewed somewhat by a BSP 84.91 winner, but nevertheless his overall record is very solid. There a couple of Henderson stats worth sharing. Firstly, LTO pulled up Hendo horses running in a chase next time have won 19% of the time compared with a 10.2%-win rate for his hurdlers. Secondly, horses from his yard that were raced on good ground when they were pulled up LTO have gone on to win just four races next time from 69 starts (SR 5.8%).

There are several trainers to avoid it seems including Charlie Longsdon, Sue Smith and Tim Vaughan to name but three.

-------------

Summary

Horses that were pulled up last time out do not win very often on their next start, but this article has highlighted some situations which are better value than most. They include:

1. Horses that were pulled up in a hurdle race LTO when priced 8/1 or shorter next time, again in a hurdle race.

2. Horses returning to the track that were pulled up LTO more than 150 days previously.

3. Horses that were pulled up LTO on heavy ground.

4. Horses that were pulled up LTO when at least three other competitors failed to finish that race (meaning 4+ non-completions in total).

 

Before closing, I do have a couple of additional stats to share – both strong negatives.

Firstly, horses aged 3 or 4 that were pulled up LTO have a dreadful record when returning to the track. They have won just 3.1% of the time (18 wins from 599 runners) for BSP losses of £261.60 (ROI -43.7%); A/E 0.68.

Secondly, horses that were pulled up over a short NH distance LTO (2m 2f or shorter) have gone on to win just 136 times from 2897 runners (SR 4.7%) for BSP losses of £1006.57 (ROI -34.8%). In fact, the LTO distance does seem to have some relevance because those that were pulled up LTO in races of three miles or more had a SR% of 7.6% and broke even to BSP. Also, if we compare the win & placed % figures we see a marked difference – those pulled up over 2m2f or less LTO have an 'each way' strike rate of 13.8%, whereas those who raced over three miles-plus hit 20.5%.

It's time now for myself to get pulled up; the next piece of research is calling!

- DR

Monday Musings: Chinese Takeaway

/in /by

So Oisin Murphy didn’t stay home this autumn/early winter for a full English, but instead filled his boots with the ultimate Chinese takeaway, writes Tony Stafford. Oisin didn’t follow my suggestion he might challenge for the 26-times champion Sir Gordon Richards’ best of 269 in a single year, and stands marooned on 215 in the year of his fourth championship. Put another way, Oisin, you have only 23 titles more to go!

I’m sure he and his agent will be content with the £150k or so he picked up in Hong Kong yesterday, courtesy of a win on Giavellotto and fourth on The Foxes in his two rides on the richly-endowed Longines-sponsored card at Sha Tin racecourse. I expect it took Sir Gordon a fair few of his 4,870 winners to match Oisin’s haul over the 2min 27.53 secs of the Vase.

The Marco Botti-trained Giavellotto picked up £1.3 million and change for winning the Vase over a mile and a half. He had the William Haggas world traveller Dubai Honour two and a half lengths behind in second under Tom Marquand with Luxembourg, second to the Hong Kong supreme champ Romantic Warrior in the ten-furlong Cup last year, only fifth for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore.

Giavellotto can lay claim to being one of the most publicly underrated and indeed under-noticed of performers, if not by the handicappers who have him on 119. This year, he won the Yorkshire Cup over 1m6f at York in May and the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes over yesterday’s trip at Newmarket in July. He warmed up for his trip to the Far East with a third over 1m6f, three lengths behind the peerless Kyprios in the Irish St Leger in September.

As an entire he could presumably have been trained for the King George at Ascot in July and/or the Arc early in October – that’s already nine weeks ago! – and maybe next year his realistic trainer might give those races a whirl.

Italian-born Botti quietly goes about his business in Newmarket from where his 93 horses to run picked up 49 wins, 87 places and earnings of £921,714. Yesterday’s victory easily more than doubled that sum on its own.

The big day for Hong Kong racing also provides a showcase for its own champions and the afore-mentioned Romantic Warrior made it 17 wins worth almost £18 million in 22 career starts following a third successive victory in the Cup race with its £2.25 million to the winner prize.

Andrew Balding was rewarded for his enterprise in sending The Foxes to Hong Kong, the four-year-old finishing just under five lengths back in a lavish (£240k) fourth place under Murphy. The Foxes had beaten Dubai Honour when they met in Newcastle’s Churchill Stakes, appropriately so as he’s a colt by Churchill.

Romantic Warrior was almost unbackable but, to the Sha Tin and World Pool adherents, also just about unbeatable at 10/1 on and won as he and his rider liked, the identical price as Sprint winner Ya King Rising, that one less far down the road but getting there. He stands with nine wins from 11 starts. Ya King Rising won a shade cosily under Zac Purton, one of the regular top Australians that have made Hong Kong their own along with that race’s runner-up Hugh Bowman.

But it’s the New Zealand-born James McDonald who really has the game sorted. One of the leading riders in Australia for many years, he manages to organise his trips to Hong Kong to coincide with Romantic Warrior’s runs and has been on him for his past eight races, the last seven wins in a row starting with the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley in October last year.

They also won a Group 1 race together in Tokyo on June 2 this year, one of only four 2024 runs before yesterday. The son of Acclamation was sold as a yearling at Newmarket by his breeders Corduff Stud, fetching 300,000 Guineas to the bid of the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Peter Lau Pak Fai, his owner, will be eternally grateful that it was his number that came up when the annual ballot for owners and horses was enacted.

James McDonald also picked up the winning rider’s share of a second £2 million to the winner race on the 8/5 favourite Voyage Bubble in the Mile. Bizarrely, he was in the television booth when last month’s Melbourne Cup was being run, having no ride in the race, after which he set straight off for his regular Hong Kong stint. Even when he won the Melbourne Cup three years ago on the mare Verry Elleegant, his pickup from the £2,584 million first prize would not have matched yesterday’s combined bounty.

Saturday’s racing at home was massively affected by the latest hurricane to trouble our shores, ending hopes of Aintree staging the Becher Chase over the Grand National obstacles, in which Kim Bailey was denied a run for his smart emerging talent Chianti Classico.  Kim woke up on Saturday morning with two fancied runners each at Aintree and Chepstow and instead none got a run. Usually in the winter, when potential winning opportunities are withheld in this way, they only rarely get a suitable race to make up for it.

Jumps trainers must be getting so frustrated. The wet summer when the big horses weren’t generally in action proved difficult for the fast-ground regulars. Then as the early autumn became very dry, many trainers waiting for a first run for their good horses were understandably worried about sending them into action on quick ground.

Then came another very wet spell, with meetings lost and good-ground high-class horses also being put at a disadvantage.

Sandown survived on Saturday but surely it’s a reflection on these problems that the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown attracted a final field of four. These were the Dan Skelton-trained favourite L’Eau du Sud; two from Gordon Elliott, Touch Me Not and Down Memory Lane; and just one more from the UK, the Kieran Burke-trained Soul Icon, the 16/1 outsider.

L’Eau du Sud didn’t have as much to spare as when winning on comeback and chase debut by 11 lengths at Cheltenham, but this race has always been a decent guide to the Arkle Novice Chase at Cheltenham. He will be going there certainly as one of the best of the home team.

The money on offer for that race was 56k, 20k, 10k with more than five grand for the horse that brought up the rear. You wonder sometimes how owners that moan about prize money as I feel they are entitled to most of the time, explain a case like this when so few found their way to such a historic novice race. All the novice chasers in the UK cannot be rubbish, or can they?

An hour later it was the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase and Jonbon won this for the second year in succession for the McManus/Henderson/de Boinville team.

The Tingle Creek was worth almost twice as much as the Henry VIII, Jonbon picking up a few quid short of £100,000 for his eight-length defeat of Irish raider Quilixios. Two of the three remaining UK runners fell, including Edwardstone, so again each of those that did get round got a handy prize, around 40k, 20k with 10 grand for fourth.

It’s hard to believe with the recent flat season still so fresh in the memory that when my article appears in two weeks’ time, the days will be getting longer again. Some people are counting down to Christmas, but there may be many that will be sensing Cheltenham 2025 coming over the horizon. Three months? It’ll go in a flash!

- TS

 

Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases

/in /by

A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.

Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.

Introduction

Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable. 

The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.

The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

-----------------

Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases

It is time to start the countdown:

10. Kempton 7f

Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.

Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:

 

 

An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.

 

9. Lingfield 6f

Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:


 

Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.

At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.

 

8. Chelmsford 1m

This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs): 

 

 

As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.

 

7. Kempton 6f

Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.

 


 

Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.

 

6. Chelmsford 6f

The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 

 

These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.

Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.

 

5. Wolverhampton 5f

The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:

 


 

This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:

 

 

Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.

In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.

 

4. Chelmsford 7f

The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:

 


 

Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.

It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:

 


 

Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:

 

 

 

Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:

 

 

The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.

 

3. Southwell 5f

This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:

 


 

A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:

 


 

The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.

It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!

 

2. Chelmsford 5f

The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:

 


 

The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.

In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.

 

1. Lingfield 5f

Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:

 


 

If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.

Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:

 

 

 

Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.

 

--------------------------

Conclusion

The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.

Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.

As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.

For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.

Until next time...

- DR

 

Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez

In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.

And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.

- Matt

Monday Musings: Superpowers

/in /by

 

What a lovely Saturday afternoon, writes Tony Stafford. Sky Sports Racing – now on my Now TV sports package, if you please – had all three UK cards. Thus, there was a constant flow of high-class jumping from Newcastle, Doncaster and, above all, Newbury suggesting that all may not be quite so gloomy where our sport is concerned.

Alex Hammond, Mick Fitzgerald and Jamie Lynch provide a refreshing balance of experience, insight and regional accent and they were in their element, especially Mick, as his old boss Nicky Henderson was on one of his very good days. The former stable number one showed he keeps a keen, close acquaintanceship.

Basically, he knows where the Seven Barrows horses go to work at home or, at important times, away and even, no doubt, what they had for breakfast.

The Henderson highlight, of course, was super-sub Sir Gino, nimbly stepping in after his work with Constitution Hill at Newbury suggested he might have made up a chunk of the 23lb that officially separated them in the BHA handicap.

Lameness was the reason for the former (2023) Champion Hurdle winner’s absence from Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. It could turn out in time that Henderson might not have needed to search so intently for a reason <lame excuse?> to explain the gallop’s outcome.

Saturday’s field seemed to contain only one horse capable of challenging the previously unbeaten Henderson four-year-old. That was Mullins’ superbly bred Mystical Power, result of a union between perennial (but deceased) champion flat-race stallion Galileo and close-to unbeatable hurdling mare Annie Power, one of the stars of Willie Mullins’ long career.

Mystical Power was never going in a race where a couple of outsiders made the pace. Nico de Boinville moved Sir Gino out to challenge entering the straight and when he asked him to extend, the gelding did so thrillingly, winning by an ever-widening eight lengths from five-time winner (from eight runs) Lump Sum. It was Nicky’s eighth victory in the race.

Sir Gino started out with an unexpected debut win in France and, once “lifted” from under Harold Kirk’s and Mullins’ noses, went unbeaten last season, missing the Triumph Hurdle, but sorting out the Triumph runner-up, Mullins’ Kargese, by almost four lengths at Aintree. Constitution Hill’s performances still stretch far into the distance where even the best of the rest is concerned, but Sir Gino could just be getting a good deal closer, and his stablemate clearly hasn’t been as easy to train of late.

Until I checked on Sunday morning, I had no idea of Willie Mullins’ age or when he started his training career. It was a shock to see he’s 68 years old and took out his first licence 36 years ago!

That still makes him a novice compared with the six-years-older Henderson, who began training ten years earlier. The pair have been at the top in their respective countries for decades and the most pugnacious of opponents at every Cheltenham Festival meeting since Mullins got into his stride.

Paul Nicholls began as a trainer three years after Mullins, but with the credibility from his time as a jockey when he won two consecutive runnings of the then Hennessy Gold Cup on Broadheath and Playschool in 1986/87 for David Barons. How he ever managed 10st 5lb to ride Broadheath I can’t fathom, but then, when Ned Sangster can ride in amateur riders’ races on the flat at under 10 stone, I suppose anything is possible! Don’t turn sideways Ned, I won’t be able to see you!

Nicholls didn’t take long showing he had gone through a thorough apprenticeship. Towards the end of the Martin Pipe superiority after the turn of the century, when Pipe won 15 titles, Nicholls got ever closer, finally ending that one-sided era with a first triumph on a memorable final day at Sandown in April 2006.

Over the next 17 years, he and Henderson dominated, albeit heavily in Nicholls’s favour, 14 to four, with legends like Kauto Star and Denman to fuel the lavish prizemoney that decides the title. Henderson had collected twice in the 1980’s, so he has six.

Then, last April, it became evident that Willie Mullins, not content with 17 consecutive championships at home, was intent on dislodging either Nicholls or Paul’s former assistant Dan Skelton, and he duly achieved it with something to spare.

The statistics around this top three – Henderson, Nicholls and Mullins – are collectively most impressive with only Skelton in the UK likely to beat the trio to the top spot. Skelton’s wonderful training complex near Alcester, was built and designed on father Nick’s business acumen and Olympic Gold medal riding skills over many years.

Both Dan and younger brother Harry, already a champion jump jockey and potentially going close to another title this season, had their initial racing experience in Nicholls yard, as did emerging trainer Harry Derham.

In Ireland, Gordon Elliott has withstood what many thought would be a career-ending faux-pas a few years ago to come back even bigger and stronger.

Elliott’s stats are remarkable. After Saturday’s racing, in the season from May, Gordon had run 232 individual horses in 633 races, winning 86 and accruing €1,822k. Mullins, with 78 fewer horses (154) and from under half the runs, has 65 wins for €1,326k.

Skelton meanwhile in the UK has gone off at a fast pace, returning to getting as many wins as possible at the “phoney” first half of the season (May to October) before the real stuff begins. His stats are not far short of Elliott’s. He has run 196 horses for 484 runs, 96 wins and £1,247k. Nicholls has 47 wins and £845k from 114 horses and 194 runs. Slow-starting Henderson has 29 wins and £496k from 84 horses and 128 runs.

Henderson was at Newbury on Saturday, saddling two winners, both making their seasonal comeback. Nicholls, too, was content to let his Coral (ex-Hennessy) Gold Cup contender Kandoo Kid go to Newbury without a previous run this autumn and his judgment and that of rider Harry Cobden proved correct as he won comfortably from the favourite, Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Broadway Boy. Here the inherent dangers of punditry came to the fore, one of the trio (Mr Lynch I believe) suggesting the Coral Gold Cup rarely goes to a horse first time out. It did this time.

This was a fourth training win in the race to go with those almost four decades ago riding successes. We all remember Denman’s duo – the only thing we might have forgotten was that they were respectively 17 and 15 years ago!

It’s not only Nicholls whose former assistants rise to a high level after taking their leave. Henderson saw Tom Symonds, a former joint assistant with Ben Pauling, enjoying a prestige win with Navajo Indy in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle. The runner-up there, the former Oliver Sherwood-trained mare Queens Gamble, now with Harry Derham along with her former handler, was a good second first time out for a year, and she is the one I would take from the entire Newbury card.

Talking of Pauling, while his Henrys Friend was only fifth in the big race, he would have been much closer I’m sure had he not punctuated his otherwise great jumping round with a shattering mistake halfway down the back straight second time around. He was also making his return to action and should not be missed next time.

The previous afternoon at Newbury, Pauling showed his hand with another young chaser who could be winning the Coral Gold Cup next year. Carrying Harry Redknapp’s colours, The Jukebox Man made an exhilarating first run over fences in the John Francome Novices Chase, sponsored by Corals. Ben brought him along carefully through his bumper and hurdles seasons and he is now ready to reveal his true potential as a chaser.

I mentioned above the numerical strength of Elliott and Mullins in Ireland. Gordon had 17 runners on the Saturday Fairyhouse card but it wasn’t until the day’s final race, the bumper, that he had a winner. Most punters would have been expecting Ma Jacks Hill, a €310k acquisition for Giggingstown House Stud to land 4/5 favouritism, but he was only third to Elliott’s other runner, William Butler, a 25/1 shot. I hope Sir Mark Prescott’s assistant noticed it running and had a fiver on it!

Talking of expensive buys, the Sir Alex Ferguson colours had their first airing on the Nicholls-trained €740k acquisition Coldwell Potter at Carlisle yesterday. He and Harry Cobden treated the crowd to an exhibition from the front and won easily. That Nicholls fellow keeps persuading the boys to fork out the money. He won’t get back on top otherwise.

- TS

 

November Feature Update

/in , /by

Geegeez has a couple of new features - and a new membership tier - going live this week. Let's get straight to it...

New Feature #1: Odds History

We've added odds history data so you can see the trajectory of price movement. But I wanted to present an uncluttered view of the movement, unlike other sites where there can be well over a hundred rows of data to confuse and confuddle.

So we have an opening show price usually from the night before; and then odds updates at 8pm the night before, 7am day of race, then hourly from 9am day of race... up to an hour before the advertised off time, at which we display quarter-hour price intervals.

To access the detail, click the little coloured 'graph' icon.

 

Looking now, for example, will show something like this:

 

 

Later in the day/after a race, it will be more like this:

 

 

Crucially, where there is no price update, there is an empty cell. It's a clean, easily consumable view of price movement.

For those who want to go a step further, we have a graph view as well. Within that are options to review movement from Opening Show, 9am day of race, or the last two hours; and you can view either best available price movement or average price movement. It looks like this:

 

 

This is on site now and is available to all logged in geegeez users, free or paid.

New Feature #2: Video Replay Links

The second new feature may have had a spoiler alert for some eagle-eyed viewers in recent weeks, as it's been in my 'super user' account for a while. As of some time today, Gold level subscribers will be able to click out to video replays of all UK/Irish races. The race replays are hosted by the rights holders (ATR/RTV) so your click take you outside of the geegeez site, but I've found it a super convenient way to watch the race replays I need.

You'll find the links in the horse form on the Card tab, to the right of the 'Date' colum:

And in Full Form in the same place:

 

And on the Result tab, look for the red button:

 

I know for some members this will be a game-changer and I'm excited to share it.

Update #3: Introducing Geegeez 'Lite'

Regular readers will know that I frequently survey site visitors to understand what's working and what's not; and what you want to see next. Having recently asked about an interim membership tier, I was bowled over by an overwhelming 'YES' response.

So, we've created something called Geegeez Lite, which includes all of our most popular and easiest-to-use features across the racecards, reports and form tools. Later today, or perhaps tomorrow, I'll share exactly what's included for Lite members, as well as pricing info.

This will be available from tomorrow morning onwards and, to celebrate its launch, I'm making what I hope is a very accessible offer. So if Geegeez Gold is a bit much for you, either in cost or feature terms, Geegeez Lite might be just the ticket.

Look out for more details later today, and a fantastic launch offer tomorrow morning.

Matt

National Hunt Racing Systems for 2024/25

/in /by

One approach to betting on the horses is to use systems, writes Dave Renham. Some punters are drawn to racing systems because once developed they are straightforward and easy to implement. No burning the midnight oil studying the form which can definitely be seen as a plus.

Introduction

Most use a methodical approach, sticking to a rigid set of rules, and essentially users back whatever the system or systems suggest without any further thoughts. They are not swayed by the fact that the trainer may not have had a winner for a month, or that the jockey booked has not ridden a winner for the stable this year; they have a selection via their system and that is good enough. These users put their money on and have the rest of the day to themselves.

Geegeez Gold subscribers can create and then test certain systems using the Query Tool, and once a system that looks promising enough to follow is identified, it can be saved as a 'Query Tool Angle' – this means any qualifiers will appear on the racecard and in the member's personal QT Angles Report, only visible to them.

At this juncture it is worth remembering that not all people are fans of using systems. Some will say that systems lack flexibility and that they rarely perform as well ‘live’ as they do in testing. Non-system punters also believe that profitable systems have a limited shelf life and, more often than not, they are right. A perennial problem for system punters is that determining the likely shelf life of a system is virtually impossible. Horse racing and the betting market are continually changing and hence certain systems that have been profitable in the past at some point start to lose their value edge, and eventually start making losses. One of the main reasons this occurs is that the betting market adjusts, so although the strike rate essentially stays the same the prices on offer contract (shorten) and the profit margin disappears.

Therefore, as a system punter one cannot sit back on one's laurels once a collection of ‘winning’ systems has been created. We need to be constantly monitoring our results over the short, medium and long term to see whether that system should continue to be used. I wonder though, how many system punters do keep abreast in this way? It would be interesting to know.

Personally, I do not use such an archetypal system approach. I use ‘systems’ in a broader sense to create shortlists for specific races. I look for a group of rules or parameters that gives me maybe four or five horses to focus on rather than just one. It is a more general approach that works for me, closer perhaps to patterns than systems. It is far from the only betting strategy I use but it is the closest I get to using systems.

For this article I have concentrated on National Hunt racing in the UK from 1st January 2016 to 17th November 2024. I will share with you some systems that would have proved profitable to Betfair SP during this time frame. I also will share Irish data where appropriate.

 

System 1 – "Back so soon?"

Quick returning Last Time Out (LTO) winners

When, back in the 90s, I first looked at systems horses that returned to the track quickly (within a few days) generally performed above the expectations of punters and bookmakers alike. Maybe there was some prejudice at the time in terms of thinking that the horse had not had long enough to recover from its recent exertions. We now know that some horses actually thrive when returned to the racecourse quickly. So, onto the system:

1. Won LTO

2. Last race was 5 days ago or less

That’s it! Just the two rules. Generally, the fewer the rules the better in terms of systems. Too many rules can mean you can fall into the dreaded back-fitting trap.

Here are the overall results:

 

 

This ultra-simple system has produced a very impressive strike rate of close to 47%, especially when you consider all LTO winners in NH racing win on average only 21% of the time. Below I have graphed by year the win and each way (win & placed) strike rates for this system:

 

As you can see the win SR% has been over 40% in all but one of the years, while the each way SR% has been above 63% in every year bar one.

In terms of yearly returns to BSP, six of the nine years proved profitable with one break-even year and two losing years. The same yearly profit spread occurred if betting to SP, it’s just that the profits were slightly smaller each year. Finally, horses that started as clear favourite have produced 173 wins from 312 (SR 55.5%) for a BSP profit of £47.89 (ROI +15.4%).

Checking the Irish results now we see an overall profit has been made also:

 

 

Don’t be put off by the lower strike rate as the average number of runners in races in Ireland has been much higher than in the UK. In fact, Irish races involving these quick returners have averaged four runners per race more than their UK counterparts (12.6 versus 8.6). The ROI% for Irish and UK runners has been very similar and, all in all, it seems that quick returners continue to deliver both sides of the pond.

Combining the UK and Irish results gives us:

 

 

System 2 – "The Lightly Baked Baguette"

Inexperienced French-bred chasers

Breeding in terms of the country origin of the horse can give punters an edge if they have done their research. This system utilises the fact that French-bred (French bread, baguette, geddit?!) runners seem to take well to jumping the larger obstacles early in their chasing careers. Here is the system:

1. French-bred runners

2. Non-handicap chases only

3. First or second run in a chase

4. SP 4/1 or less

French bred chasers seem to mature quickly and take to these larger obstacles better, certainly when you compare them to the other two main countries of breeding namely GB and Ireland. Here is the profit and loss table:

 

 

The high strike rate means consistent results overall – the longest losing run has been just eight. Five of the nine years proved profitable, two broke even, while two showed small losses.

As with the first system I checked the Irish results over this time frame, and they too turned a small profit from a slightly bigger data set:

 

 

These figures are a smidge below the UK ones, but they still correlate well. Combining results from both the UK and Ireland we get:

 

 

Now, GB- and Irish-bred runners restricted to the same system rules have won 34% of the time (34.2% for GB, 34% for Irish) so that's quite a significant differential to the 42% for French-breds. The domestic product have also made losses of over 4% combined (GB -3.9%, Ire -4.4%) in this context. Finally, the A/E indices come out strongly in the French favour too with their figure standing at 1.03, the GB one at 0.93, and 0.92 for Irish-breds.

If you are a punter that primarily bets horses at shorter prices, this system may be one to consider.

 

System 3 – "Rested and ready"

The trainer lay off system

Trainer systems are popular be they course based, jockey based, etc. For instance, Trainer Track Stats is one such example.

This system combines three trainers that perform particularly well with chasers returning from a long break. The advantage of a trainer system including three trainers rather than one is that hopefully the ‘journey’ will be smoother, experiencing less ups and downs from month to month, year to year. This is of course assuming that all three trainer results don’t dip at the same time, which can obviously happen. Here is the system:

1. Chases only

2. Horse off track for 180 days or more

3. Trainer: Kim Bailey or David Pipe or Venetia Williams

Let me start by sharing the individual trainer performances with these horses that have effectively been off the track for at least six months.

 

 

As you can see, all three have done extremely well with this type of runner from good sample sizes. Williams has had six winning years from nine, Bailey seven, and Pipe a highly impressive eight. Combining their results in one give us the overall system results:

 

 

I think anyone would be happy with these results when betting in over 600+ races. It should be noted that profits to Industry SP stand at over £205 and all nine years produced a profit. In terms of BSP, here are the yearly ROI percentages:

 

 

This shows the advantage of merging three trainer systems in one. Profits and good ones every year. In terms of A/E indices only one year saw the figure dip under 1.00 indicating what excellent value these runners would have been. For the record there was only one qualifying race in Ireland as these trainers ply their trade in the UK 99.9% of the time.

This trainer system hopefully has ‘legs’ to continue in positive fashion over the next few years.

UPDATE: This system has had five winners from 15 since the article was written, for a profit of £9.79 to BSP (ROI +65.3%). Including an Ascot double for Venetia Williams last Friday and a Haydock double on Saturday. Kim Bailey weighed in at Haydock as well so three from four that day - treble paid over 130-1 SP and 177/1 on Betfair.

 

System 4 – "Cotswold Champions"

LTO winner at Cheltenham system

This is a system that I first wrote about for another publication back in 2015. At that time, it had been profitable over a number of years going back to 2008, and looking at this more recent data set I see a similar performance. Here are the rules (no surprises based on the system title!):

1. LTO course Cheltenham

2. Won LTO

Here are the results going back to the start of 2016:

 

 

Returns are close to 8p in the £ which is positive. Also, it makes total sense to once again check runners in Ireland for this system considering so many Irish runners win at Cheltenham. The good news is that this subset also produced a profit:

 

 

Fewer qualifiers but double the ROI%.

Let me combine both UK and Irish results to see how these runners fared overall and on a year-by-year basis:

 

 

 

As can be seen, the yearly results have certainly fluctuated, and if taking out 2021’s excellent returns there would have been a small overall loss incurred. Hence this system could go one way or the other in 2025 and beyond. However, as I stated earlier, it also produced a profit from 2008 to 2015 so has performed solidly over nearly 20 years now.

It should be noted that horses that win at the Cheltenham festival in March are the best group of LTO Cheltenham winners to follow. No surprises there.

 

System 5 – "Lightweight Winners"

LTO winners carrying bottom weight in handicap hurdles

This is very similar to a system I heard about 25 years ago; that one focused on the weight carried rather than the position in the weights, and followed low weighted LTO winners running in handicap hurdles. From memory the system pinpointed horses carrying 10st 4lb or less.

Anyway, onto the more recent system I want to share with you. Here are the rules:

1. Handicap hurdle races only

2. Won LTO

3. Bottom or joint bottom weight

 

I should mention that I have taken any jockey allowances / claims into account, so the system is based on the actual weight they are carrying. Here are the UK results going back to the start of 2016:

 

 

This looks a promising starting point. Let us look at the BSP Return on Investment percentages by year:

 


 

2021 was the only poor year, while four others (2016, 2018, 2022 and 2023) were close to parity, three of those four managing a tiny profit; and there were four very good years.

For fun, I looked at restricting these bottom weighted runners to those carrying 10st 4lb or less (matching the weight criteria of the old system I mentioned above). Doing that would have produced 112 winners from 511 runners (SR 21.9%) for a BSP profit of £134.84 (ROI +26.4%). This additional rule takes out about half of the original qualifiers but has increased the profit. For anyone interested in using this system, whether you add this rule or not is up to you. Some would argue it is back-fitting, but in my defence, I did mention the original system criteria earlier.

Going back to the basic system without adding that weight carried rule, the Irish results have proved profitable also, but the sample size is small:

 

 

The lower strike rate is once again down to much bigger average field sizes. The profit is small, but a profit is a profit! It is also worth noting that taking the UK and Irish results individually, both would have secured a small profit to Betfair SP Place betting.

I think some horses sitting at the bottom of the weights in handicaps are under-estimated by the betting public. Perhaps this is why this system has proved profitable in recent years.

**

Summary

It is time to wind this piece up. As I said at the outset, rigid systems are not really for me but I totally appreciate why many punters use them. The five I have shared in this article have all shown positive results over a recent time frame. The UK results have also been backed up in most cases by Irish racing results lending more credence to the angles.

Of course, as with any article I write, I can only report on past data; there are no guarantees any of these systems will make a profit over the next x number of years. Hopefully they all will – only time will tell.

- DR

Monday Musings: Blank

/in /by

I must say Storm Bert crept up on me unawares, writes Tony Stafford. Minus 2 degrees C on Friday morning, plus 15 degrees two days later. If you still dealt in Fahrenheit, that’s a difference of 31 degrees. Reach for the medication! He was a windy old bugger, was Bert, enough for the safety-first people in the Exeter, or was it BHA, management to call off yesterday’s fixture after the course had been declared fit for racing earlier in the morning.

So not the greatest of starts for a week without any supporting all-weather meetings. As I write on Sunday morning, over the coming week, there will be 19 jumping cards before the next all-weather programme, on December 1, to be staged under lights at Wolverhampton.

The official thinking must be to give the flat boys a week off before the hard slog through December, January and February engulfs their energy – if they can afford to take the time off. But that means no evening entertainment for a week. Also, granted that we don’t get remnants of the accursed Bert lingering long enough to render conditions untenable, even on such ground-friendly tracks as Kempton and Ludlow today, emergency cards could conceivably be coming into play later in the week

One slight cause for concern, certainly for northern jump racing and point-to-point enthusiasts, comes next Sunday December 1. The two jumps cards that day are at Leicester and Carlisle. The first northern point-to-point of the winter is staged on the same day, the Border meeting run on the inside of the NH course at Hexham, only 37 miles away.

The previous day, this coming Saturday, Newbury stages its biggest jumps day of the year. The Coral Gold Cup, just about established even to an old timer like me enough not to be giving Hennessy yet another posthumous mention, carries 250 grand. The whole card has a handsome £490k in total.

The same day at Newcastle, the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, now denied the services of Constitution Hill but thrillingly replaced by his recent much-publicised gallop conqueror Sir Gino, gets 115 grand, a chunk of it from BetMGM. Their advertising on the two Racing channels is almost as cringe-making as Corals with that idiotic so-called race with non-riders on faux horses brandishing their phones. Maybe Betfair will do a market on it?

Anyway, we're at the mercy of untoward weather patterns as ever, but at this stage with temperatures for the week apparently around a sensible for the time of year 10 degrees C, we should be okay.

The first prize for the Coral Gold Cup will be around £140k. This time I’m not complaining as the tracks do what they can. Yesterday’s Japan Cup at the Tokyo racecourse was worth £2,801,191 and it propelled the winner Do Deuce beyond the £10million career tally. His earlier highlight had been the defeat of Equinox when they were three-year-olds but that world champion easily had his, and everything else’s, measure from then on.

The locals had made Do Deuce the 13/8 favourite to follow on from Equinox and, after 55-year-old local hero Yutake Take allowed him to trail the field for the first eight of the 12 furlongs, he smoothly passed them all in the straight. Then he needed to repel the rallying Shin Emperor, a 26/1 shot, who dead-heated for second, a neck behind the winner, along with the William Buick-ridden Durezza.

Goliath, the King George winner at Ascot, ineligible as a gelding to run in the Arc in which Shin Emperor was unplaced, kept going well for fifth. Auguste Rodin was always in the middle of the field on his final race for Aidan O’Brien, the Derby winner finishing eighth under Ryan Moore, although only four lengths adrift of the winner.

Take was winning his country’s most important race for the fifth time, his first arriving on the legendary Deep Impact, the sire of Auguste Rodin. His wins in the Derby and Irish Derby last year will make Auguste Rodin a major attraction at €30k on the 2025 Coolmore roster alongside fellow newcomer City Of Troy (€75k), this year’s Derby winner. The jewel in Coolmore’s overflowing crown, though, is  Wootton Bassett who has moved inexorably upward since his capture from France. Wootton Bassett is up from €200k to €300k after another stellar year, notably from the first crop of Coolmore-sired two-year-olds this year.

Returning to the Fighting Fifth, the market on the race has responded to the Henderson news by making Sir Gino and the Willie Mullins entry Mystical Power difficult to separate. Mystical Power beat Firefox on his last two starts last season and that Gordon Elliott hurdler is the only horse so far to have beaten the Mullins star Ballyburn, that happening in a 24-runner novice hurdle at the start of Ballyburn’s novice season.

Mullins’ decision to switch Ballyburn to fences - presumably the owners had a little say (or not?)  – had an instant dividend on Saturday when he outclassed the opposition in a novice chase over an extended 2m2f at Punchestown. He hardly looked to be galloping, but the margin over the rest certainly did keep extending. It will take something special to beat him.

Now that Ballyburn is off the hurdles path, the Champion Hurdle contenders are lining up. State Man, the champ, had a reverse on the same card in the Morgiana Hurdle. With his stable-companion Lossiemouth a late withdrawal, State Man was a strong odds-on shot but could not match Elliott’s mare, Brighterdaysahead.

Throughout the racing industry – except maybe for the Mullins stable – State Man was regarded as a champion by default with Constitution Hill unable to take part. It should not have been too much of a shock for Nicky Henderson that Sir Gino could work better than Constitution Hill. He had been a massive over-achiever in all three of his hurdle runs last season.

When he came to Cheltenham second time out following an easy win at Kempton, the French import slaughtered Burdett Road by ten lengths. That horse’s all-the-way win in the Greatwood Hurdle last weekend off a mark of 133 put the performance into perspective.

Sir Gino missed the Mullins-dominated Triumph Hurdle, first two and another five in the field, but came back at Aintree. There he was a comfortable winner by more than three lengths over Kargese, who had been beaten just over a length in second by Majborough in the Triumph.

Kargese’s similarly comfortable success in the Grade 1 juvenile contest at Punchestown on her final start of the season lent further solidity to the form, if it was needed. The one question about Sir Gino, a Listed winner on his sole French start when a 21/1 shot in April of last year, was how Harold Kirk and Mullins missed him, especially as Mrs Donnelly has plenty of horses with the Irish maestro.

This is a match I can’t wait to see. It’s not the first time Henderson had a close-season quandary over whether to send his top juvenile hurdler straight over fences. He had the choice with Altior and Buveur D’Air after the pair had been first and third in the 2016 Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. The distance between the pair was eight lengths. Both set off on novice chase campaigns, but after wins at Haydock and Warwick J P McManus’ Buveur D’Air never again ran over fences.

Instead, he seamlessly switched back to hurdles and won both the 2017 and 2018 Champion Hurdles while Altior went on his merry way as probably the best two-mile chaser in living memory. Such a shame that the real Champion Hurdler of his era never got the chance to show he might have been another Istabraq.

That gallop the other day was enough to convince Henderson to continue with Sir Gino at the smaller obstacles – for now at least – rather than go straight into novice chasing. He faces a formidable and beautifully-bred opponent on Saturday in Mystical Power, a son of Galileo out of the almost flawless mare Annie Power, winner of 15 of her 17 races.

The run that remains most firmly in the memory, unfortunately, alongside all the superb victories was one of the two losses. The banker for seemingly the whole of Cheltenham that day, she came to the last in the Mares’ Hurdle with Ruby Walsh sitting still. To general amazement and dismay, she fell.

Mystical Power is her first produce to race and he sets a pretty decent standard. With shared ownership between Mrs Sue Magnier, J P McManus and Susannah Ricci, he could hardly have more distinguished owners. But I still think that Sir Gino can match him.

As to the Coral Gold Cup, I must stay with my long-held view that a second-season seven-year-old fits the formula. I was surprised that only ten of the 31 entered – noon today will tell us how many are left in - are of that age.

One trainer never to have won it will be very keen to do so this year. Kim Bailey won his Gold Cup half a lifetime ago and must be hoping that in Chianti Classico he has another potential winner of Cheltenham’s great race.

He won a big field handicap at the Festival there last year and made a winning start to this campaign with an all-the-way stylish display at Ascot. That brought his mark to a very tough 157, but he is improving rapidly, and his jumping should help him stay at the forefront all through the three and a quarter mile trip.

- TS

A Look at All-Weather Returners

/in /by

In this article I am looking at some all-weather data going back to 2019 in the UK, writes Dave Renham. At this time of year, the only flat racing in Britain occurs at the six all-weather tracks, these being Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield, Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton. The first three named all race on a Polytrack surface, the last three on a Tapeta surface.

My initial research for this piece is connected with the last time out all-weather (LTO AW) course that a horse ran and linking it to the course they raced on next time. As you might expect, certain horses tend to stick to one specific AW track. The two most likely reasons for this are either they run better there, or their stable is close to the track in question (or both). I guess trainers with smaller yards have to keep a close eye on costs, and travelling less distance is one way to save money.

All Runners: Surface Same or Different

When thinking about AW runners that have run well LTO, my perception in the past has been that I would rather see a horse running at the same AW track as they raced last time. If the horse switches tracks, then I would prefer them to stick to the same surface (e.g. Polytrack to Polytrack or Tapeta to Tapeta). If a horse did not run particularly well LTO then any switch of track or surface could be seen to be a potential positive. Thinking about this now, I realise that I have not crunched any data comparing the LTO AW course to current AW course, so my starting point is to look at just that.

Let me begin by comparing all runners between the LTO AW course to today's AW course. It should be noted that for any data connected with Southwell, I have used only runs on the new Tapeta surface which was first deployed at the end of 2021. It made no sense to include previous fibresand results.

The table below displays win strike rates, ROI percentages (to both Industry Starting Price, SP, and Betfair Starting Price, BSP), as well as Actual vs Expected (A/E) indices. I have colour coded some of the A/E indices – those in green are deemed positive (0.95 or above), those in red deemed negative (0.79 or below):

 

 

The vast majority of LTO course to ‘this time’ course stats seem much of a muchness. However, the five A/E ‘positives’ each have one thing in common – these paired courses all have different surfaces:

 

 

I concede I was not expecting this. In terms of strong positives, I would have expected to see the two courses in question either being the same course, or at least having the same surface.

Sticking with Newcastle as the LTO course, the data seem to suggest that horses perform better next time when switching to race on Polytrack. Indeed, here are the exact splits for this:

 

 

There is quite strong evidence here highlighting that if a horse ran at Newcastle LTO, one would much prefer to see it switch surfaces next time to race at one of the three Polytrack courses (Chelmsford, Kempton, Lingfield).

Let’s now compare the A/E indices of the other five courses in terms of LTO course to the today's surface and see if a surface switch is also preferable:

 

 

As an example, the first bar represents a run at Chelmsford last time and racing on Polytrack next; second is Chelmsford runners moving to Tapeta next time; and so on.

Chelmsford (Polytrack 0.83/Tapeta 0.82) and Wolverhampton (Polytrack 0.82/Tapeta 0.83) have very similar A/E figures indicating that the next time surface makes little or no difference from a value standpoint.

However, the other three tracks have slightly bigger differentials seemingly in favour of a surface switch. This is especially true for LTO runners at Southwell. This cohort, when switching surfaces to Polytrack, has produced an A/E index of 0.91 compared to 0.84 for those remaining on Tapeta. That is not quite as potent as the figures shared earlier for Newcastle, but the differences are noteworthy given the data analysed covers thousands of races.

The overall data shared to date points firmly to the fact that a surface switch offers punters better value. This has especially been the case for horses that raced at either Newcastle or Southwell LTO.

LTO Winners: Surface Same or Different

So far, I have only looked at general cases connected with all runners. But what if we restrict the research only to LTO winners? The table below has the same columns as in section one, showing win SR%, A/E indices and returns to SP and BSP. Again, I have highlighted positive and negative A/E indices – green for positive, red for negative.

 

 

Nine of the LTO to 'today' course combinations have seen LTO winners show a profit to SP; this increases to 18 when using BSP.

Looking at the negatives we see that Southwell to Chelmsford and vice versa have both produced poor results for LTO winners. This may be worth noting.

Staying with A/E indices, here are the ten ‘positives’ (0.95 or higher) grouped together:

 

 

Again, perhaps surprisingly, nine of these ten ‘positives’ involve a surface switch. In fact, if we lump together all the results of LTO AW winners, comparing horses that have switched surfaces with those that did not, we get the following results:

 

 

All the evidence is pointing to the fact that LTO AW winners that switched surface are by far the best value and also are more likely to win compared with those that haven’t switched.

Looking at the least experienced LTO winners, two-year-olds (2yos), we can see that a surface switch (regardless of which way round) is an extremely strong positive when comparing the returns to SP and BSP:

 

 

These numbers show that 2yos that won LTO on the all-weather were far better on the wallet when switching surfaces from their last run to this one. In terms of win strike rates 2yos switching surfaces won 28.3% of the time, with those racing on the same surface having won 26.9% of the time. These SR%s are quite close together, so I am thinking it is not solely the 1.4% difference in strike rates that has affected the bottom lines. My guess is that it is also due to the fact that the market has been slightly blind, offering bigger prices on these inexperienced LTO winners when they switch surface.

 

Surface Same or Different: Trainers

I now want to look at a handful of trainers who seem to have strong patterns when it comes to comparing the LTO course surface with the course surface next time.

George Boughey

George Boughey’s runners seem to have performed better on a Tapeta surface than on Polytrack. In fact, looking at his runners on the sand since 2019 (regardless of whether they ran on the AW LTO) he has shown a blind profit to BSP at all three Tapeta courses (Newcastle, Southwell, Wolverhampton). I want to compare his record with horses that raced on Polytrack LTO and are racing on it again next time, with those that ran on Tapeta LTO and stick to Tapeta in their follow-up run. Here are the splits:

 

 

The differences are stark and the ‘betting angle’ is clear. Boughey horses staying on a Tapeta surface require very close scrutiny. Profits have been made ‘blind’ to SP; to BSP the profit stands at £50.10 (ROI +22.7%). Those returning to a Polytrack surface look best avoided. Here are some additional Boughey stats worth sharing:

1. Horses that have started favourite racing on a Polytrack surface having raced LTO on the same surface have won 9 of their 35 starts (SR 25.7%) for losses to SP of £16.07 (ROI -45.9%)

2. Horses that have started favourite racing on a Tapeta surface having raced LTO on the same surface have won 25 races from 62 (SR 40.3%) for a small SP profit of £1.67 (ROI +2.7%); to BSP this improves to +£10.54 (ROI +17%)

3. Boughey 2yos racing on a Tapeta surface having raced on Tapeta LTO have won 14 races from 50 runners (SR 28%) for a profit to SP of £24.73 (ROI +49.5%); to BSP the figures read +£32.31 (ROI + 64.6%). Compare this to his 2yos going from Polytrack LTO to Polytrack this time – these figures read a dismal 6 wins from 53 (SR 11.3%) for an SP loss of £40.97 (ROI -77.3%)

 

Charlie Johnston

Charlie Johnston has only been training on his own for a couple of years, but he runs plenty of horses on the AW, so we have sufficient data to crunch. Johnston has been the reverse of Boughey when it comes to Tapeta LTO to Tapeta this time runners. He has really struggled with these horses. Of the 159 qualifiers only 14 have won (SR 8.8%) for an SP loss of £41.10 (ROI -25.9%). The loss figures would have looked much worse but for one of his winners that scored at a very unexpected 40/1. He has saddled 24 favourites with this profile and only two have won for a whopping 82p in the £ loss to SP. His second favourites have fared little better winning three from 21, losing 44p in the £.

Compare this to a near 19% strike rate with Johnston horses racing on a Polytrack surface having raced on Polytrack LTO. Backing all runners blind to BSP in this scenario would have seen one break even. Backing favourites and second favourites combined with this profile yielded excellent results unlike their Tapeta/Tapeta counterparts. These runners have scored 16 times from 46 (SR 34.8%) for an SP profit of £8.36 (ROI +18.2%).

 

David O’Meara

O’Meara has a good record with horses racing on a Polytrack surface having raced on Polytrack LTO. 153 horses have tried, of which 28 have won (SR 18.3%) for a profit of £30.12 to SP (ROI +19.7%). To BSP this improves to +£60.66 (ROI +39.7%).

Horses switching from Polytrack to Tapeta though have been only half as successful from a win perspective, passing the post first just 9.7% of the time (17 wins from 176). It should also be noted that horses making this surface switch for O’Meara, and which started in the top three of the betting, have incurred SP losses of over 24p in the £. In addition, horses that finished first or second LTO on Polytrack before switching to Tapeta next time have won just four times from 46 attempts.

 

---------------------

 

Concluding Thoughts

When researching huge data sets like I have for the majority of this article, the good news is we can have a fair degree of confidence with the results that are found. As a general rule, this research seems to suggest that a switch of AW surfaces from LTO run to today's run is preferable, especially when we are talking about betting value. It certainly should not be viewed as a negative. For LTO winners and especially LTO 2yo winners, a surface switch does seem a real positive. The figures shared here for both look strong and clear-cut, showing positive correlation.

So, does this mean I’ll be lumping on surface switchers this winter? No, of course not, but I will take a much keener interest in such runners than I have done in the past. Another thing this research has done is open my eyes to how punters, like me, can be blinkered in their thinking. In the third paragraph of this article, I said,

‘When thinking about AW runners that have run well LTO, my perception in the past has been that I would rather see a horse running at the same AW track as they raced last time. If the horse switches tracks, then I would prefer them to stick to the same surface (eg. Polytrack to Polytrack or Tapeta to Tapeta). If a horse has not run that well LTO then any switch of track or surface could be seen to be a positive.’

As a mathematician by trade I am a logical thinker, so what I wrote earlier made perfect sense. Well, it did at the time! Now I have researched this area I can see that, according to this recent data at least, my perception was an inaccurate one.

This process has also demonstrated to me that as punters we should be evolving and always trying to get better. If we stand still, we will fall behind the crowd. Every day is a school day!

- DR

 

Monday Musings: Ritual

/in /by

Over the past year or so at Tattersalls sales, it has become a ritual, writes Tony Stafford. Bill Gredley, cap perched defiantly atop his head, eases his way between the tables in the Tattersalls Newmarket buffet room, stops and smiles. John Hancock, my long-term associate, as usual is in the perfect spot to meet and greet those we know (and in many cases John seems to remember he knew).

Bill stops and the ritual begins. "How old, are you Bill?", John asks politely. Bill’s answer – I can never remember this part – “92!” - or is it91? John says, “So am I!” <whichever>. “Which month?”. The saga continues and until the next time, neither of these august gentlemen of the turf will remember who indeed is the older. For the life of me I cannot! Maybe December sales later this month will give us the definitive answer and I’ll make a note. <As if! Ed>

John Hancock for many years has been the doyen of bloodstock insurers and still gets the request for cover from old clients after they buy their horses. Cowboys and far more honourable types have come and gone, but he’s still here and loves every minute, although £3 for a Coke and £2.50 for Maltesers would be excessive at the Ritz never mind the sales; but we endure it for the camaraderie.

Entrepreneur Gredley was already age 60 when his great filly User Friendly went on an extraordinary year in 1992 under the care of Clive Brittain. Unraced at two, User Friendly was a 25/1 shot in that Sandown late April fillies’ maiden over ten furlongs when opening the account on debut.

Next came the Lingfield Oaks Trial, followed by three Classics and one other Group 1 victory, in the Oaks, Irish Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and St Leger. The filly and George Duffield, her regular partner, only gave best - and then by a neck as favourite - to French-trained Subotica in the Arc. Respective Irish and Epsom Derby winners from that year, St Jovite and Dr Devious, were fourth and sixth to emphasise her merit.

In the meantime, much of the Gredley (now officially listed as the Gredley family) race planning with his trainers comes down to son Tim, a more than effective point-to-point rider and international show jumper.

Increasingly, decent Gredley flat racers, usually home-breds and many with East End names to celebrate Bill’s (I’m proud of it, too) heritage, have switched to the winter game, no doubt with Tim’s approval, and are based with a future top-five trainer in James Owen.

Last year at Cheltenham, the family’s Burdett Road, switched from Michael Bell to the former Arabian and point-to-point trainer, exploded onto the hurdling scene. He recorded impressive wins at Huntingdon and in last weekend’s (a year ago) Triumph Hurdle Trial which he won by more than six lengths.

The embryonic favourite for the Festival, he lost that position when well beaten in a return to Cheltenham in January, by future Aintree G1 winner Sir Gino.  A setback ruled him out of running in the big race, but he returned to flat racing for James Owen this year and, two runs back, won a Listed race at Newmarket. Challenging Kyprios in the Champion Stayers’ race at Ascot last month proved beyond him, but he returned to jumping yesterday in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and made all to collect the £60k prize.

They say lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place, but racehorse breeding often lends the lie to that adage. Now the year-younger full-brother to Burdett Road, East India Dock, is following a similar path.

The initial difference was that he was in training with James Fanshawe. He easily won handicaps at 1m4f at Salisbury and 2m at Goodwood before turning to hurdling, again with Owen. The first race proved a comfortable success at Wincanton and then it was on to follow in big brother’s footsteps at Cheltenham on Saturday.

On ground officially described as good with good to soft places, he breezed up to the leader two from home; from that point it was a massacre, trebling his brother’s winning margin in a remarkable time. His 3 min 53.82 sec was more than 20 seconds faster than Burdett Road achieved, admittedly on soft ground, and considerably faster than the two previous renewals of this race.

The record time for the Old Course’s 2m1/2f is 3 min 44.35, set in March 2022 by the wonderful Constitution Hill in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. So, almost ten seconds faster, but when you consider the brilliant Jonbon was second that day, beaten 22 lengths, we are talking in superlatives. By that measure East India Dock looks right and the time is right too!

Will Willie Mullins be worried? Presumably the team he and Harold Kirk have been compiling from France and, given that mysterious ability enhancement over the months of summer and autumn, will again be to be feared. Last year, Mullins had the first two but not necessarily the ones most expected. He supplied seven of the twelve runners and all finished in the first ten. Sir Gino abstained on that day but came back to win at Aintree. He’s one to look forward to from Nicky Henderson.

When Burdett Road won last year, he was immediately put in at a short price for the Triumph Hurdle. The initial quote for East India Dock was 12/1 – really? In my punting days I would have been on the phone in a heartbeat. You could still get 10/1 in a couple of spots Sunday evening.

Yesterday’s performance in the Greatwood by Burdett Road was spectacular enough, seeing off the hot favourite Dysart Enos by the last hurdle and then comfortably holding the flying finish of the Skelton runner Be Aware. If you needed more evidence of how good the East India Dock run was, his big brother took more than five seconds longer over the same course and distance when most of that top-class field of experienced handicappers could never get near to challenge.

His win came with Cheltenham under a pall as the immediately preceding long-distance chase suffered two fatalities, neither involving a fence. Bangers And Cash, trained by Ben Pauling, collapsed halfway through the near 3m4f contest, and then the all-the-way impressive-jumping winner, Warren Greatrex-trained Abuffalosoldier also collapsed when circling on pulling up after the race.

Reverting to Saturday, based on what my eyes told me, I also cannot wait for the next appearance of Dan Skelton’s L’Eau Du Sud. As with East India Dock, he strolled up the final hill of his valuable two-miler with Harry Skelton, such a brilliant rider, never more so than now, enjoying the view from a top-class conveyance.

He hadn’t been the luckiest in his runs in valuable handicap hurdles last winter for the 'Sir Alex Ferguson and mates' - not including Jim Ratcliff - team and could be a future Champion Chaser.

Sir Alex also owns a bit of the Paul Nicholls-trained Il Ridoto, winner of the £84k to the winner Paddy Power Gold Cup, although if Jamie Snowden’s Ga Law could have eliminated his customary mid-race horror jump, it might have been close. So while his £1 million-plus job as a Manchester United ambassador has gone down the drain – obviously Mr Ratcliff was aware of the extra National Insurance cost if he had kept him on - the racehorses are playing their part.

On Friday, amazingly, Sir Alex and best racing pal Ged Mason were celebrating a second successive victory in the Bahrain International Trophy with the Richard Fahey-trained Spirit Dancer. Fred Done of Betfred also has a piece of this one. Oisin Orr came widest of all in the straight and, just as it appeared that the classy Gosden-trained Lead Artist would follow up last time’s Group 3 win at Newmarket, he was cut down and outpaced by Spirit Dancer, who had been well behind him in that Newmarket race. Even split three ways, £472k helps significantly towards paying the training fees. For Fahey to keep the horse in such tremendous shape at age seven and targeting the right race deserves immense praise.

 

**

 

I had intended having a right rant about the decision of the third bunch of adjudicators to allow the original result of the Cesarewitch to stand. The ten strikes rule has been brought in, rightly, to appease public opinion. It is not a question of how many blows land on the horse in the place stewards deem “useful”, it's much more what the public sees. Ten is ten and ever more shall be so.

If the apprentice rider was too incompetent, tired or merely unbalanced, he still tried to give his mount a tenth strike - the one that should have broken the proverbial camel’s back and brought disqualification. As he admitted on television straight afterwards.

The BHA rules are ridiculous. Stewards on the day decide one way or another. Why do they need a different team several days later to say whether it was ten hits or not? They found it was and disqualified the horse. Nobody bar connections disagreed.

The next month another team gathered, no doubt at considerable expense and the BHA team were out-lawyered by the connections of the Irish horse Alphonse Le Grand, trained (sic) by Cathy O’Leary, Tony Martin’s sister. It seems the last of the ten strikes landed prematurely and on the “wrong” part of the horse to be regarded as a proper strike, so sorry connections of Manxman, now £48 grand worse off and the same goes for other prize earners all the way down.

I think after this fiasco, the BHA should make up the deficit from what owners and trainers understandable believed was their rightful due following the disqualification. Simon Crisford, joint-trainer with son Ed of Manxman, understandably called it a fiasco and a sorry day for UK racing. It just made me sick to the stomach. Intent to commit a crime is a crime in law. Intent to hit a horse that misses its target ought to count just the same.

- TS

Hat Trick (Plus) Seekers in NH Racing

/in /by

Some horses are better, or better handicapped, than others and, as a result, have been able to run up winning sequences, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will uncover some profitable angles in relation to horses that have won at least their most recent two races; that is, which are chasing a hat-trick, four-timer, five-timer or more.

The focus will be horses bidding for a hat-trick plus specifically in the National Hunt sphere. I have taken data from 1st Jan 2017 to the present day (end of October 2024) for UK National Hunt racing. Profit/losses in all tables/graphs is calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

All NH Hat-trick+ Seekers

Let me begin by looking at the starting base figures of ALL horses trying to complete a third win in a row:

 

 

As might be expected, we see a strong win rate of close to one in every four starts, but losses to SP stand at over 13 pence in the £. To BSP this improves considerably but losses still exceed 4p in the £. Here is how that breaks down on an annual basis:

 

 

The results have been a little better in the last three years, but it is unclear whether this a trend or simply an anomaly. My suspicion is that it is the latter.

So, what about the type of NH contest - Chase, hurdle, or bumper (NH Flat)? Let’s see the splits:

 

 

Hat-trick+ seekers in bumpers have seen the best returns (close to parity) but in truth the sample size is modest. The chase and hurdle figures are similar to each other, with perhaps hat-trick+ seeking hurdlers a marginally better proposition than chasers.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Race Class

I want to examine class of race next. Below is a graph looking at the class of race these hat-trick+ seekers ran in comparing their win strike rates within each class:

 

 

This is interesting – from a win perspective at least it seems much harder to win in the two highest classes of race (Class 1 and 2), which stands to reason given horses have likely progressed from lesser contests. Below is a chart illustrating return on investment (ROI) by race class:

 

 

We see positive correlation between the ROI%s and the win strike rates, with hat-trick+ seekers racing in Class 1 and Class 2 events providing the worst value to punters. It should be noted that there have only been a handful of Class 6 races in comparison to the other five classes so we should not get too carried away with the 18p in the £ returns. Having said that, I did back check hat-trick seekers in Class 6 events between the years 2009 and 2016 and they proved profitable to SP in that time frame with an even better win strike rate of 43%. However, since 2018 NH racing no longer has Class 6 events except for some hunter chases.

If we focus on handicap hurdle races at Class 5 level, the lowest grade, hat-trick+ seekers have won 85 times from 253 qualifiers (SR 33.6%) for an SP profit of £15.33 (ROI +6.1%); to BSP +£37.76 (ROI +14.9%). [And once from one run since the research was completed, a 3/1 scorer at Chepstow on 6th November]

The Betting Market for NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers

The betting market is my next port of call. Below are the SP results for different price groupings:

 

 

The best returns - as is usually the case - have come from shorter priced runners (6/4 or less) and to BSP, losses for these runners stand at 1.7%, not far from break-even. The 17/2 to 12/1 group have offered the poorest value and even losses to BSP have been quite steep at 18p in the £ (-18.2% to be exact).

Horses priced 14/1 or bigger win rarely but they have proved profitable to BSP (+£160.38; ROI +24.8%). This has not been due to any ridiculously priced winners: it is basically down to 14/1, 16/1, 20/1 winners paying much more on the Betfair machine.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

I wanted to next check the data for days since last run (DSLR) which of course was a winning run. Here are the findings:

 

 

Horses returning to the track within two weeks have made a small profit to SP. Indeed, to BSP horses off the track for 14 days or less produced a tidy profit of £108.33 (ROI +14.4%). In addition to this, these horses have been quite consistent over the years, with their yearly strike rate always exceeding 30% and five of the eight years proving profitable to BSP. If we look at their yearly A/E indices we can see that six of the eight years saw a figure above 1.00, indicating value. Only 2021 saw a modest A/E index:

 


 

I have added a trendline (dotted) which helps further to show the consistency. It seems that hat-trick+ seekers returning to the track within a fortnight have offered punters good value in the recent past and perhaps this is an area we can exploit this winter.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Trainer

It’s time to look at trainers now. Which handlers are most adept at finding that good opportunity for their charge to continue a sequence of two or more wins? Here are the trainers with at least 50 qualifiers (ordered alphabetically):

 

 

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, Alan King, Neil Mulholland and Nigel Twiston-Davies look to be four stables to avoid in this context; their strike rates as well as returns are lower than their peers in this cohort. Below are some highlights from a few of these trainers, with some positive angles but also some negatives, too.

Kim Bailey – has a virtually identical record with his hat-trick+ seekers in handicap and non-handicap races:

 

 

The profits to BSP for non-handicaps reads +£13.34 (ROI +32.5%) and in handicaps it is +£12.53 (ROI +29.8%). His record in chases is much better than over hurdles with 16 wins from 40 (SR 40%) for a profit to SP of £26.57 (ROI +66.4%); to BSP it stands at £33.54 (ROI +83.9%).

Bailey has also done well when his runners have been fancied – horses starting either favourite or second favourite have combined to win 25 times from 55 runners (SR 45.5% for a profit to SP of £12.94 (ROI +23.5%). To BSP this improves slightly to +£15.53 (ROI +28.2%). Kim Bailey looks a trainer to keep an eye on.

 

Nicky Henderson – Nicky Henderson is one of the greats, a fact rarely lost on the market. Steer clear of any hat-trick+ seeker from Seven Barrows racing in a handicap. They have won just eight times from 64 attempts (SR 12.5%) for a loss to SP of £37.68 (ROI -58.9%). To BSP he was only marginally off, and losses remained at over 55p in the £.

 

Willie Mullins – The majority of Willie’s hat-trick+ seekers looking to complete the trio in the UK raced at the Cheltenham Festival, and they returned the Irish maestro 22p in the £ to SP and 38p in the £ to BSP respectively. He also had a 38% strike rate with horses that had won at Leopardstown last time out, returning 49p in the £ to SP and 58p to BSP.

 

Fergal O’Brien – O’Brien has made a profit in both handicaps and non-handicaps. He has also made a profit with his bumper runners, hurdlers, and any runner that has started favourite. However, his most eye-catching stat might be his record with fillies and mares as the table below shows:

 

 

Returns of over 63p in the £ coupled with a strike rate of over 40% is remarkable. To BSP his profit stands at £42.37 (ROI +81.5%).

 

Nicky Richards –Richards has excelled outside Class 1 and 2 company. In Class 3 or lower his hat-trick+ seekers have won 35.9% of the time (19 wins from 53) for a profit of £22.49 to SP. This equates to returns of 42p in the £. To BSP the profit climbs considerably to £41.19 (ROI +77.7%). His handicappers have provided all of the profits, with his hurdlers outperforming his chasers.

 

Dan Skelton – Skelton has a surprisingly poor record with hat-trick+ seekers. Any Skelton qualifier that starts as favourite should be treated with caution. These runners would have lost you 23p in the £ to SP, 19p to BSP. Hat-trick+ seeking chasers are also ones to about which to be wary having lost 43p in the £ to SP, 41p to BSP.

 

Venetia Williams – Miss Williams has sent out 71 hat-trick+ seekers in chases of which 17 have won (SR 23.9%) for an SP profit of £24.81 (ROI +34.9%); to BSP this improves considerably to +£59.37 (ROI +83.6%). However, before getting too carried away, there was an SP winner of 40/1 that paid over 70 on Betfair in the sample; taking that winner out, Venetia's figures have produced a loss. It always pays to check for skewed data.

Other NH Hat-Trick+ Seeker Pointers

I have looked at most of the key areas but, before closing, there are a couple more findings I would like to share with you. Firstly, I want to look at how far winners won by last time out (LTO) in terms of lengths. When examining these LTO winning margins I found a clear pattern. Let me share the win strike rates first – I’ve split the LTO winning margins into three groups: won by 2 lengths or less; won by over 2 lengths up to and including 5 lengths; won by more than 5 lengths. Here are the splits:

 


As can be seen the horses that won by further performed best on their next run, from a win percentage perspective at least. But how does that translate to profitability measures?

 

 

Horses that won by over 5 lengths LTO not only have more chance of completing the hat-trick, but they provided the best returns by some way: both to SP and BSP.

Secondly, and in my final offering for this article, I want to share the stats for hat-trick+ seekers that are racing at a track where they have a previous course and distance (shown on the racecard as 'CD') win to their name. There were 745 past CD winners of which 234 won (SR 31.4%) for very small losses to SP of £9.18 (ROI -1.2%). To BSP these runners made a profit of £80.75 (ROI +10.8%). Their A/E index stands at very respectable 0.97.

 

---------------

Summary

Positives

In this article we've seen that some hat-trick+ seekers potentially offer value to punters, especially if backing to BSP (and/or, probably, to early prices with best odds guaranteed).

These include:

  • horses returning to the track within 14 days
  • horses that won by more than 5 lengths LTO
  • handicap hurdlers racing at Class 5 level
  • previous course and distance winners

Also, there are a few trainers to note positively including:

  • Kim Bailey
  • Willie Mullins
  • Fergal O’Brien
  • Nicky Richards (Class 3 or lower, handicaps)

Negatives

In terms of negatives, it seems best to ignore hat-trick+ seekers which:

  • are running in Class 1 or Class 2 events
  • are priced between 17/2 and 12/1
  • won by 2 lengths or less LTO

Some trainers look worth swerving in this contextand these include:

  • Oliver Greenall + Josh Guerriero
  • Alan King
  • Neil Mulholland
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • Nicky Henderson handicappers
  • Dan Skelton chasers and/or favourites

So, it is time to wrap this up, and for me I am off to do some digging for my next article. I hope you enjoyed this one.

- DR

Monday Musings: A Little Bit of Politics

/in /by

I rarely delve into the murky world of politics and apologise for doing so now, writes Tony Stafford. But a conversation with a couple of senior and well-respected trainers over the weekend did at least offer an insight into how Rachel Reeves’ first Budget as Chancellor of the Exchequer will impinge upon the racing industry in general and trainers in particular.

The increase in employers’ contributions to National Insurance is a body blow, not least for employees. Trainer one said his increase in annual costs simply from that rise will be £40,000. The choice was to increase training fees, already dangerously expensive, or make one staff member redundant, saving £30K. A tough pick but one with an inevitable outcome.

Taken across all of racing, you might have thought this could have a beneficial effect as many trainers have been complaining since Brexit that the supply of qualified foreign staff has been significantly reduced. Yards in the big centres have been woefully short of fully qualified stable staff, but the new legion of redundant workers will hardly be the best in their respective places of work.

Staff reductions and smaller, if any, pay rises, will be the obvious result while in London tube drivers it seems will be able to work a four-day week on the same pay, courtesy of the Mayor of London.

The second trainer reckoned “a storm” is about to hit racing, after the Budget. Many country-based trainers also combine to a degree farming on their land. The change in inheritance tax rules will surely cause retaliation in some ways.

In France, by now tractors will have been lined up two by two on all the main thoroughfares, intent on bringing traffic if not to a halt, to a crawl. Coincidentally, last weekend, all racing in France was cancelled with many professionals joining a protest in Paris against the proposed increase in the tax on sports betting. €115 million was the intended haul from the new legislation. Jockeys, trainers, PMU workers and the rest were on show. Could it happen here? Doubtful.

Last weekend also featured the latest running of the November Handicap. At around the time I was getting most immersed in racing, I remember listening on the radio to a commentary on the 1962 November Handicap, in those days still run at Castle Irwell in Manchester.

It was a very big ante-post race and in the year of my favourite old-time flat horse Hethersett, the 1962 St Leger winner for Dick Hern, Towser Gosden (father of John) won the race with Damredub. It was a shock the other day when I noticed that this year’s race, although attracting a full field, carried a first prize of just over £36,000.

Inadequate records limited my research, but I was sure the race had been worth more in the past. A simple look back to 1993, one of my favourite renewals, as the Jason Weaver-ridden Quick Ransom’s victory at 6/1 was enough to win me the Sporting Life naps table that year, was enough to answer my question. Jason also won it the following year on Saxon Maid for Luca Cumani. Who’d have believed he won the race more than 30 years ago, watching him on TV working at the track on Saturday? Call him Peter Pan!

Quick Ransom picked up £24,000 for the Mark Johnston stable. The pound sterling in 1993 was worth £2.55 of today’s pounds, so the race’s real value had it kept pace with inflation should have been nearer 60 grand. Twelve years ago, when Brian Ellison won the race with Batswing it was £40k to the winner and the pound then represents £1.47 nowadays. Again, something close to £60k.

Brian Ellison has been around for a while too, so it was great that while his horse Onesmoothoperator could finish no better than 12th in last Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, his owners still collected 85 grand. Had he been one place further back, it would have been nothing for unlucky 13th.

For Newcastle-born Ellison the Northumberland Plate win for Onesmoothoperator this June provided a kick-start to the six-year-old gelding’s explosion of earnings. Before collecting that £81,000, amusingly (or maybe not so?) less for a big-race UK win than his 12th the other day, he had run 33 times over four seasons.

David Simcock trained him at three, sent him to win his maiden first time out at Newcastle and gave him another two more placed runs there before switching less successfully to turf racing.

After six runs, he was sent to the sales and owners of Ellison’s bought him for 65,000gns. He won on December 22nd 2021 at Southwell but it wasn’t until almost two years (November 11th last year) and 18 runs later that he won another race - back at Newcastle.

It took another seven losing runs before his Plate victory, so in all just one win in 26 outings before the race that gave Ellison’s lengthy career what we thought was the fitting embellishment.

Sometimes, owners and their trainers can be over-cautious – Ellison has never been that, but to contemplate a winter trip to Australia where he easily won the £160k to the winner Geelong Cup proved his attacking policy so imaginative and rewarding. Just as St Leger winner Jan Breughel was ruled out by the exacting Racing Victoria veterinary team, so Onesmoothoperator also got an initial no, but survived a second vetting.

From Northumberland Plate to Melbourne Cup, five races earned the six-year-old gelding £326,000. His previous 33 races earned a total of £156k for three wins and 16 places.

It’s salutary to think what a significant part in his story the 57-rated Jimmy Moffatt-trained horse Yukon played. During his long losing run, Ellison sent him to Sedgefield for a maiden hurdle for which Onesmoothoperator started 2-1 on under Brian Hughes. Yukon, ridden by Charlotte Jones, was a 50/1 shot. Onesmoothoperator looked exactly that as he jumped the last hurdle level with Yukon, yet for all Hughes’ efforts, was beaten more than two lengths, seeming less than keen. He is rated 45lb Yukon’s superior.

Maybe if he had won that day, he would have been kept to hurdling and would never have seen the racecourses of Victoria.

What his history does tell us though is that many of the horses sold at the end of their three- or even two-year-old careers last month at Newmarket may have been disposed of prematurely. I know trainers who have been urged to sell horses by owners when often they believe their potential has not been anywhere near achieved.

So these horses – increasingly sold for export and the riches awaiting them elsewhere – are mostly never heard of again unless they crop up in one of those massively-endowed features over the winter.

There is still a market for jumps horses (where potential owners can get in a bid) and I’m sure that after the record amounts of rainfall in October, the big teams were getting ready for nice ground through the next couple of months.

But then two weeks ago, the taps went dry, and we had the prospect of a Premier Raceday card at Exeter on Friday when only 41 horses turned out – 12 absentees mostly citing unsuitable ground for their absence, and one race becoming a walkover. The Haldon Gold Cup with its £59k first prize, £23k more than the November Handicap, mustered five runners.

Two of Wincanton’s races on Saturday also outstripped the November Handicap prize. The Badger Beer did have ten runners and was worth £47k. The four-runner Elite Hurdle provided one of five wins for Paul Nicholls on the day and carried a £41k winner’s prize. Favourite Rubaud’s superior jumping saw off Brentford Hope, who should be winning again soon.

There was also more money on offer for the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree, won by David Pipe’s lightly weighted King Turgeon. Fifth, staying on well up the run-in was Sure Touch, and he should be resuming normal service back on conventional tracks for the geegeez syndicate boys in red, dark blue and white.

- TS

 

Sires on the Sand: All Weather Stallions To Note

/in /by

It has been a while since I have looked at sire stats so, with the winter all-weather (AW) season just getting underway, I felt now was a good time to revisit this area, writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

I know from past experience that certain sires perform better on the all-weather than on turf and vice versa. Other sires have distance preferences, some come to hand early with their two-year-olds, and so on; spotting key sire patterns can therefore help our betting, especially with less exposed runners and those trying a surface (or distance or going) for the first time. My main focus in this piece will be on the racing surface, to try and uncover some patterns rather than look purely for bottom line profits. Obviously, I will share profit and loss data where appropriate, both Industry SP and Betfair SP.

I have looked at UK all-weather data going back to the beginning of 2017, although I have ignored Southwell fibresand results as that surface is defunct now in Britain and Ireland. For the record, the last fibresand race at Southwell was held on 15th August 2021. Since then, specifically the 7th December 2021, they have raced on a tapeta surface.

For those unfamiliar with sire articles, let me briefly offer some background. Sires are the fathers of the respective horses and they generally have some sort of influence on their progeny (offspring).  For example, if the sire was originally a sprinter there is a good chance that his progeny will perform better at sprint distances than over, say, marathon trips. Sires also vary in quality which will obviously influence the horse in terms of inherent ability. Some sires, for example, achieve around one win in every five starts with their progeny, others are nearer one win in 20.

Let's now look at some individual sire stats with a view to all-weather racing.

All-Weather Sires

Aclaim

Aclaim had his first runners in 2021 having last raced on the track in 2017. He enjoyed an excellent racing career winning seven of his 15 starts including a Group 1 success in his last ever race. As a three-year-old he raced primarily over 6f, but his two Group wins (as a four-year-old) came over 7f. In his second year as a sire, he landed his first Group 1 success when Cachet won the 1000 Guineas, and already in his fledgling sire career there seem to be some emerging patterns. Firstly, his two- and three-year-olds have performed better over 5f to 7f than they have over further. Secondly, and importantly as far as all-weather racing is concerned, there seems to be a big difference in performance as regards Polytrack versus Tapeta.

 

The sample size is decent and other metrics correlate with these figures. Firstly, the A/E index sees Aclaim’s Polytrack figure at 1.08, the Tapeta figure is down at 0.83. Secondly, the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures for Aclaim’s Polytrack runners stands at 55.8 with the Tapeta one only 49.2. Aclaim’s current record at Southwell has been particularly poor with just 6 wins and 9 placed runners from 80 runners – the PRB figure is a lowly 41.2.

A comparison I would like to share now is comparing horses that produced a decent performance on Tapeta last time out (LTO). This table contains data for horses that won or finished less than three lengths off the winner on Tapeta last time out, specifically focusing on which surface they raced on next time after that good run on Tapeta:

 

 

Those runners switching to Polytrack have done extremely well, albeit from a small sample. The PRB figure helps to give smaller datasets more credence as it stands at a mighty 65.9% of rivals beaten. Those remaining on their seemingly unfavoured AW surface of Tapeta have really struggled to back up that good run.

Another noteworthy difference can be seen when we examine the performance of male horses versus female horses. The win percentage strike rates are in the graph below:

 

 

Male runners have outperformed their female counterparts with a strike rate that is nigh on double. As a general rule males win more often than females on the sand, but the overall difference is nowhere near this stark. Also, when we examine Aclaim’s turf gender stats we see that there is only 0.6% between their respective strike rates (male 10.9% v female 10.3%).

Aclaim is a relatively new sire but there seem to be some strong AW patterns that we need to be aware of over the coming months.

Belardo

Belardo won two Group 1s in his racing career - the Dewhurst as a juvenile, and the Lockinge as a four-year-old. As a sire his first runners graced the track in 2020 and he has performed well to date, scoring around once in every eight starts. However, there is a big difference between his record on turf and all-weather, as the table below highlights:

 

 

The win-and-place percentages correlate well with the win only percentages, standing at 35.4% for turf runners and just 28.2% for AW runners. Likewise, the A/E indices reflect this disparity, at 1.03 (turf) and 0.75 (AW) respectively. Belardo progeny when starting favourite on the sand have struggled, as one might expect, winning 11 of 55 starts (SR 20%) for hefty losses of 48p in the £ to SP, 45p to BSP.

There is also a difference when it comes to AW surface. Belardo progeny have not enjoyed the Polytrack surface whereas Tapeta win and placed figures are much stronger. The bar chart below illustrates this fact:

 

 

There is one important stat to share before moving on and that is when it comes to distance. Belardo runners are much better over further when racing on the AW as the table below shows:

 

 

If you are looking to back a Belardo runner this winter, I would focus on distances of 1m2f or more. It should be noted that we see the same distance bias with his progeny on the turf.

Dark Angel

Dark Angel’s life on the racecourse lasted just one year when, as a two-year-old, he won four times including the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. Dark Angel is now 19 and edging towards the end of his stud career, but his fee remains high at £60,000. Dark Angel progeny seem equally effective on the all-weather and the turf which means we can be hopeful that good turf form for any of his progeny will be replicated on the sand. Indeed, horses that have been previously won and/or been placed on turf and which are now having their first run on the AW have won an impressive 24% of the time. However, backing all 176 qualifiers would not have turned a profit but it does support the earlier comment about being equally effective on both surfaces.

Dark Angel was a speedy juvenile racing primarily over 5f and 6f, and his progeny seem to prefer sprint distances, too. Here are the distance splits for Dark Angel’s runners since 2017 on the sand in terms of win percentage:

 

 

Runners over six furlongs or shorter have won twice as often as those trying trips beyond 1m3f. We see a very similar distance pattern on the turf although it is slightly less pronounced.

Dark Angel is known by anyone who uses sire stats in their betting to be a sire whose offspring perform best at sprint trips, but the AW value has been with those racing over 1m½f to 1m 2f. The graph above shows that the win strike rate holds up well, and backing all Dark Angel runners over this distance band would have yielded a profit of £65.38 (ROI +18.3%) to BSP. To SP you would have suffered very small losses but remember this is assuming we are backing all qualifiers blind without any other considerations. The A/E index for this distance group is 0.96 which suggests to me that some of these runners at least have started at value prices, possibly due in part to the prejudice about Dark Angel progeny attempting slightly longer distances. It seems clear to me that Dark Angel progeny have the scope to be effective up to 10f; anything longer and then their lack of stamina does start to come into effect.

Fountain Of Youth

Fountain Of Youth is not a particularly well-known sire, and that may be all the more reason to take note. He has not really fired as a sire just yet, and this especially true on the all-weather. Here are his turf versus AW progeny data:

 

 

The BSP profit figures for the turf do not jump out at me as much as the success rate. On the sand progeny of Fountain Of Youth have scored around 2½ times less often than they have done on the turf. Not only that but he has sired some well fancied runners on the sand despite this overall record. 57 horses sired by Fountain Of Youth have run on the AW when positioned in the top three of the betting, but only six have won (SR 10.5%) for SP losses of £31.17 (ROI –54.7%). Even to BSP the figures are dreadful showing a loss of £29.65 (ROI -52.02%). He's a sire to avoid this winter but maybe to keep a closer eye on when the grass action resumes in the spring.

Frankel

The great Frankel should need no introduction. As a racehorse he won 14 races from 14 starts, ten of those were Group 1s. He was definitely one of the greatest ever horses to grace a racetrack. As a sire he has done extremely well to date, his progeny winning over 18% of their races. On the turf his strike rate stands at 18.8%, on the AW a smidge lower at 18.2%. The main reason I wanted to highlight Frankel is the consistency his runners have displayed across the six UK AW tracks. His win strike rate across them varies only by 3.3% between the ‘best’ and the ‘worst’, while five of the six hit over 18%. The graph below shows the splits:

 

 

For the record, the lower strike rate at Kempton is mainly down to the fact that when Frankel’s progeny have run there the average field size has been bigger than at the other tracks.

Frankel’s offspring have struggled, however, once they hit the age of six. The table below shows the age stats and there has been a serious drop off once they reach that age:

 

 

Focusing in on the age six-plus group, such horses that started in the top three in the betting won just five times from 43 qualifiers (SR 11.6%) for SP losses of 68p in the £ (66p to BSP). I would be very wary of backing Frankel’s runners aged six or older this winter and market confidence would not change my mind.

Before moving on, in terms of distance preference, 1m4f to 1m7f proved the most successful by far on the sand for Frankel progeny. Horses that ran within this distance range, when starting favourite or second favourite, won an impressive 51 times from 113 (SR 45.1%) for an SP profit of £21.60 (ROI +19.1%); to BSP this improves a little to +£29.31 (ROI +25.9%).

Harry Angel

Harry Angel was a top sprinter that won five of his 12 starts comprising two Group 1 successes and three Group 2s. He had his first runners as a sire in 2022 and he has already had eight Group winners across the globe including a Group 1 success in Australia with Tom Kitten.

Let us look at turf flat versus all-weather results for Harry Angel; they make interesting reading:

 

 

We can see much stronger figures on the AW and the A/E indices correlate with 1.13 for the sand versus 0.84 for the turf. It should be stressed that it is still early days in his sire career and the gap between the AW and turf numbers may close. However, any horse that has acted on the turf is highly likely to act on the sand. Indeed, horses that finished first or second LTO on the turf, when switched next time to the all-weather, have won 11 of 26 starts (SR 42.3%) for returns of 19p in the £ to SP, 26p to BSP.

I for one will be looking out for horses sired by Harry Angel this winter.

 

Lethal Force

Lethal Force as a racehorse was a top sprinter winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup in the same year (2013), both Group 1 status. As a sire he has performed solidly with a win rate of around one in nine, and on the turf his progeny definitely prefer a firmer surface. On good to firm or firmer his win rate improves to one win in seven.

In terms of the all-weather, like Aclaim, Lethal Force offspring seem to prefer Polytrack over Tapeta:

 

 

The differences are arguably not as strong as they were for Aclaim, but they seem significant especially considering the big sample size. The PRB figures also favour Polytrack with a 52.6% figure compared to the Tapeta figure of 48.6%. Also, if we focus on runners that started in the top three in the betting, the correlation is positive with the overall splits as follows:

 

 

Clearly, fancied horses do better on the Polytrack when it comes to the progeny of this sire.

Another stat worth sharing is that his male and female runners have performed equally well in terms of their AW strike rate. In fact, the females have shaded it (10.9% v 10.7%), and if we compare their A/E indices we see that the fillies and mares have an excellent figure of 0.99; the males are down on 0.81. Female runners have offered good value.

Lethal Force no longer stands as a sire, so make the most of the next couple of years as there will be fewer opportunities thereafter to take advantage of the Polytrack/female edge.

Wahington DC

Washington DC is another sire early in his career, but the initial stats suggest a bias to all-weather racing. Here are the current splits:

 

 

As I said previously, it is early days in terms of sire data for Washington DC, but all the positive signs are currently pointing towards the AW. The tapeta record to date is particularly good with 19 wins from 107 (SR 17.8%) for an SP profit of £40.51 (ROI +37.9%); to BSP it stands at an enhanced +£84.28 (ROI +78.8%). It should also be noted that male Washington DC runners on the AW are currently winning twice as often as female runners.

 

----------------------

Sires In General

To finish this article I'd like to share some general data for a bunch more sires who we should see appearing regularly on the sand this winter. I have published win percentages (Win SR%), each way percentages (win & placed %s) and A/E indices. First let us look at some gender-related stats for each:

 

 

Australia, Night of Thunder and Zoustar all see stronger male stats than female stats across the three metrics. Havana Grey is one of two sires where the trend is with female progeny outperforming males across the board, Too Darn Hot being the other. Havana Grey’s female runners have turned a small blind profit to BSP, and their performance has been particularly good on Polytrack, more especially at Lingfield.

Now let’s compare Polytrack with Tapeta stats:

 

 

Too Darn Hot is the stand-out in terms of Polytrack outperforming Tapeta across all three metrics. Blue Point progeny seem to have an edge on Tapeta. The remaining sires seem roughly as effective on both surfaces.

Finally, a look at the two-year-old and three-year-old data:

 

 

Blue Point’s three-year-olds have stronger stats across the board compared to his juveniles; likewise, Kingman. Invincible Army’s win stats suggest 3yos have completely outshone their younger counterparts but the each way stats imply something nearer parity. Calyx is a young sire, and it looks currently that his 2yos perform exceptionally well. Zoustar has figures that correlate with the fact that his 2yos are better betting propositions than his 3yos.

Sire research is an inexact science, but I hope this piece has given readers some interest and hopefully you will take some useful nuggets away to help your AW betting this winter.

- DR

Monday Musings: It’s Coolmore’s Classic, but not as we thought…

/in /by

How fitting. City of Troy does have an Achilles (Ancient Greek hero of the Trojan wars) heel, writes Tony Stafford. Not an arrow shot from a bow out of the packed stands at Del Mar on Saturday night, just a different surface and a slow exit that consigned him to being the latest non-winner for Ballydoyle of the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

It had been in the expectation of watching City Of Troy win the 2000 Guineas – he didn’t, of course – that Michael Tabor stayed in Europe on the first Saturday in May when he previously insisted he would always go to Kentucky in preference to Newmarket if the boys had an authentic contender for the Run for the Roses.

He changed that life choice this year such was the confidence emanating from the Aidan O’Brien camp, just as he had a few weeks earlier. Then, he made a first-ever trip to Dubai for the Sheema Classic where the 2023 Derby winner Auguste Rodin had one of those off-days that sprinkle his card.

The Coolmore team had two big chances in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs – one in their name, Sierra Leone, carrying the dark  blue of John Magnier, and also Fierceness, the favourite, who although owned by Mike Repole’s stable, the Coolmore team had acquired some of the racing and more importantly breeding interests, just as they had their two Triple Crown-winning stallions American Pharoah and Justify towards the end of their racing careers.

The pair were fancied to complete the 1-2 in Kentucky and Sierra Leone surely should have won in front of Derrick Smith, one of the partners, had he kept at all straight rather than doing his imitation of a naughty schoolboy.

Three noses crossed the line in concert, and it was indeed by a nose that outsider Mystik Dan held on while Japan’s Forever Young was the same distance away in a regularly impeded third place. Most people thought the second and third places should have been reversed. Fierceness, the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, was a non-competitive 15th with no apparent excuse.

In between May and November, Sierra Leone had been beaten three times, albeit close up in the places in Grade 1 races at Saratoga: not his track, said trainer Chad Brown. Fierceness won two of those races, the Jim Dandy in July and the Travers in August, for Todd Pletcher to lay claim to being the best of the Classic crop.

On Saturday, half a dozen or so horses went off in a group at a suicidal pace in what was the fastest first half-mile ever for a Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fierceness sat just behind the front rank, while Sierra Leone was for a while almost dancing step by step with City Of Troy.

The Irish challenger in the first Magnier silks merely plodded along, but Sierra Leone in the vibrant pink second livery made rapid ground. Fierceness, with the utmost gallantry, led three furlongs from home as his fellow front-runners ran out of puff, and turned into the stretch in front; but his old adversary was full of running and won readily. Fierceness deserves the utmost respect for keeping on for second.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic has been something of a Holy Grail for O’Brien and his owners, and he and the team will have to brush themselves down and revert to winning the big races in Europe. Not that he’s a mug at this meeting, two winners on Friday propelling him to 20 and the equal of almost but not quite retired D Wayne Lukas whose Kentucky Derby win for Michael Tabor in 1995 with Thunder Gulch was the catalyst that helped forge the alliance with John Magnier.

Those two nice wins on Friday, with Lake Victoria in the Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile and the Juvenile Turf for colts and geldings at the same trip with Henri Matisse, both owed plenty to Ryan Moore’s coolness under pressure. Lake Victoria could easily have been a victim of the inevitable first bend crowding around this tight turf course as she got knocked back a worrying few lengths.

Patient as ever, Moore bided his time and burst through to lead in the closing stages. The filly showed that the mile of the 1000 Guineas next year will not worry her. In between the seven-furlong Moyglare and Friday, she outclassed the opposition when dropping to six furlongs for the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. Probably the only thing to stop her will be another of the O’Brien fillies, like for instance Fairy Godmother, who hasn’t been seen since Royal Ascot.

That marvellous Friday was the filling between two less agreeable moments for Aidan. While preparing his Del Mar team, 19 hours further forward on the international time scale, over in Australia the veterinary panel adjudicating on which horses should pass fit to run in tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup, ruled that the unbeaten Jan Breughel could not.

Jan Breughel last raced in the St Leger, beating fellow O’Brien Galileo colt Illinois, when still looking to have a fair bit to learn about racing. As Hughie Morrison can testify when a similar pre-race fate befell his 2018 runner-up Marmelo in preparation for the 2019 renewal, it was a crushing setback.

As was the case last week, Hughie’s vets totally disagreed with the verdict, but there is no recourse. Aidan was visibly fuming and while the Coolmore coffers can withstand the odd reverse of this kind, it’s no less galling than for a team like Morrison’s with the cost of sending horse and staff and keeping them there for several weeks being so excessive.

The man wheeled out to explain the situation was none other than Jamie Stier, the head of the temporary Australianising of the BHA at the end of the last decade. Few mourned his departure from our shores, but beware, he’s still very much out there helping to run Racing Victoria. One horse happily that did pass the scanners and “gait-evaluators” is Brian Ellison’s Onesmoothoperator, winner of the Northumberland Plate and now the Geelong Cup last week which entails 2lb extra in the Melbourne Cup. I’d love him to win the £2.35 million and I’m sure Brian will still talk to everyone if he does!

The worst moment for me of the weekend was to hear than Brian Meehan’s Jayarebe had collapsed and died after sustaining a heart attack while finishing what must have been an ultra-brave seventh place in the Turf race that immediately preceded the Classic.

Brian had plotted a masterful programme for the three-year-old, winning three of his five races and looked to have an exceptional chance. He ran an usually sluggish race, starting slowly and never getting close to the front, which became wholly understandable in the awful circumstances.

In a year when his stock has gone a long way towards where it was at the time of his two previous Breeders’ Cup Turf wins with Red Rocks and Dangerous Midge, this will be a tough blow for Brian to overcome. Let’s hope the new intake Sam Sangster acquired for the various syndicates he manages will bring another star for Meehan to work his magic on.

Talking of magic, it’s hard to believe that it’s coming up to 30 years since Kim Bailey pulled off the Gold Cup (Master Oats) and Champion Hurdle (Alderbrook) double in 1995. Kim continues to show a sure touch especially with his training of staying chasers and at Ascot on Saturday, he brought out second-season chaser Chianti Classico to win his comeback race, the Sodexho Live! Gold Cup with a pillar-to-post victory off top weight,

It's strange not to see the bustling style of David Bass on the Bailey horses but Tom Bellamy seems to have the regular gig now. He's much more a "let the horse do the work"-type pilot and it's looking good and working well so far.

Once Chianti Classico settled in the lead it was almost like a flashback to a few years back in the same race when Vindication came back from a break to win this nice prize. At age seven, Chianti Classico is the perfect profile of a Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy etc) winner at Newbury next month.

-        TS

 

Your first 30 days for just £1