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Monday Musings: The Derby’s Record-Breaking Connections

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For the past three years, observers of the British Turf have been all agog awaiting the equalling of the best-known of all Classic records – the late Lester Piggott’s nine Derby wins as a jockey, writes Tony Stafford.

He was kept in suspended animation as Aidan O’Brien was poised on eight as a trainer when outsider Serpentine collected in 2020, just 19 years after Galileo gave him the first victory. When Piggott died on May 29 last year, the record, to his still very active mind, remained intact.

Well, it isn’t any longer and, while Saturday’s extraordinary victory by winter favourite but 2000 Guineas flop Auguste Rodin has prompted the record-compilers to regard Aidan as the joint record-holder, two men actually share the honours with ten.

The first Derby was won by Diomed in 1780. His owner, Sir Charles Bunbury, famously the man who lost the toss with the then Earl of Derby to have the destined-to-be great race named after him, won it again 33 years later.

Others in between enjoyed a quicker repeat win, and sometimes as the decades and centuries wore on, with more than two. Among its winners were kings, princes, noblemen of all levels and Prime Ministers, mostly past. Never would any of those great gentlemen of the realm have considered that a young man born and bred in East Ham, East London would – with his partner – eclipse them all, and within a remarkable 22-year span. Aidan does have nine, but in between, Pour Moi, trained by Andre Fabre, makes ten.

When the first Coolmore triumvirate, instigated more than half a century ago, and founded on Robert Sangster’s Vernon’s Pools money, Vincent O’Brien’s training brilliance, and Vincent’s son-in-law John Magnier’s all-round knowledge of horses and business acumen, was beginning to wane – Royal Academy’s 1990 Breeders’ Cup Mile win under Lester was the final positive - it fell on Magnier to take charge.

Robert had the expense of Manton to take precedence; Vincent was about to retire and son David, who won the Derby with Secreto six years earlier when El Gran Senor was supposed to win for the team – he got the show back on the road in Secreto’s absence at The Curragh, was out of love with training and went to be a wine grower in Europe.

With Vincent leaving, it needed somebody special to take his place at Ballydoyle. Many were surprised at Magnier’s selection, which fell on a young man who had only recently taken out a licence.

A former amateur rider with Jim Bolger, Aidan O’Brien (no relation to Vincent) had joined his wife Anne-Marie (nee Crowley) in her training base where she had followed her father Joe and instantly become champion jumps trainer in Ireland.

Still in her early 20’s, she promptly retired to have their first child Joseph, and Aidan took up the reins, following her as champion over jumps and attracting Magnier’s shrewd notice. Aidan had started with Bolger when Tony McCoy was a young apprentice and Willie Mullins was also in the team.

Even earlier, at least 45 years ago when he was based in White’s Gate, Phoenix Park, Bolger told me that his ambition was to train a stable entirely of his own home-bred horses. How remarkable that he has pretty much achieved that aim and at the same time has been responsible for putting the three most influential individuals (himself and Magnier apart) in UK and Irish racing – the best flat trainer, the outstanding jumps trainer, and the best jump jockey of all time – on the righteous, unwavering path.

Bolger’s wish came so close to happening over the years, brought closer when he sent out homebred Teofilo, then acquired at auction New Approach, both unbeaten champion two-year-old winners of the Dewhurst from the early crops of Galileo, the latter winning the Derby in 2008. These two came at the start of a remarkable spell of five wins in six years. O’Brien has a total of eight, six coming from the next nine years.

It was only the astounding prices commanded that compelled the former accountant to swerve (slightly) from that ambition and accommodate Sheikh Mohammed’s interest. It has ensured that his family’s Redmondstown stud in his home Co Wexford, run by granddaughter Clare Manning (daughter of Una and Kevin Manning) has the resources to continue to thrive.

If identifying the training talent was important to John Magnier, it was even more fundamental to ensure a stream of investment to maintain and, as it proved, improve on what had gone before. Michael Tabor was already owning horses with Neville Callaghan, enjoying big-race success with the likes of Danehill Dancer and Danetime, both sons of Danehill.

Danehill Dancer eventually became a successful stallion at Coolmore and was a great producer and broodmare sire.  Meanwhile Tabor was minded to invest with the great US handler and former college basketball coach, D Wayne Lukas, king of the Breeders’ Cup. They promptly won the 1995 Kentucky Derby with Thunder Gulch.

I remember a call the following morning from his then close associate Victor Chandler saying: “Unbelievable. It could only have happened to Michael.” Previously one of the leading figures in racecourse betting activity, and about to cash in his off-course Arthur Prince betting shop empire, this was success right out of left field.

As with all successful men, he didn’t marvel at it, unbelievable as it clearly was to those who knew him best, but he made it a starting point, and while finding his ally in racing with Magnier and Coolmore, his business interests also burgeoned.

His greatest pride is in his family. Son Ashley Tabor-King is founder and boss of the massive and ever-expanding Global broadcasting company which has an on-going programme of projects aimed at giving a helping hand to young people, many from under-privileged backgrounds.

Meanwhile, within the Coolmore family, it wasn’t long before the dividends started. Michael timed his membership with the first Derby success for the trainer and for Galileo, by Sadler’s Wells, son of Northern Dancer, the stallion John Magnier and O’Brien senior convinced Robert Sangster that they had to invest in from US auctions if they wanted to compete on the world stage. Nijinsky and Sadler’s Wells were among the first.

Two equine generations on, recently deceased Galileo is having a similar overwhelming influence on the breed. His son Frankel has developed into the leading stallion for providing Classic horses although, as ever, breeding needs to outcross, and Auguste Rodin is the product of the fantastic multiple Group 1 mare Rhododendron (Galileo – Pivotal mare cross) by the multiple Japanese champion, Deep Impact. Now the Tabor ownership figure stands after Saturday at a mind-boggling ten – from just 23 renewals of the great race.

All through that time, the measured way Michael, John and their long-term associate Derrick Smith – in for the last eight – have modestly taken the success – and respected the unique nature of a race founded 243 years ago and which is yet to have been stopped by Wars, Covid and even would-be horse-racing-ending Animal Rising protesters.

Rightly, the Derby Roll of Honour is a short-cut to an understanding of the history of the sport from its days when a few dozen rich men matched their charges against each other up to the business where massive pots of country wealth have been grafted, with the aim of making their rulers pre-eminent in the annals of turf.

The winner of the Derby is a unique beast. He needs the speed to stay in touch with the pace and again to settle any lingering doubts as they go for home. He requires the adaptability to cope with the bends, cambers, rises and descents over these 12 furlongs of historic Surrey downland, and the resolution and temperament to handle the extraneous demands of a massive crowd that challenges their still only part-developed strength and character.

Derby horses are far from the finished article, but the race has proven to be the perfect test over time. Aidan O’Brien knows what’s needed so, while everyone was cogitating as to whether he was crazy or not after the unexpected flop of Auguste Rodin in the 2000 Guineas, the trainer himself was adamant that he was special; and his word is his bond for Messrs Magnier, Tabor, Smith, their sons and the other members of the ownership team such as Westerberg, the racing operation of auto magnate, Georg von Opel.

I had a fabulous trip with Harry Taylor and Alan Newman to Ballydoyle/Coolmore, I think four years ago now, met Galileo at Coolmore and had a nice look at the O’Brien team on the gallops. The lot we saw – second I think – consisted of 70 and all the jockeys, which included Adrian Maguire and Dean Gallagher to name but two – were instantly identified by name by the trainer.

Likewise, the horses. Afterwards in a quiet moment, I asked Aidan if he ever betted. Now excuse me if I have the number wrong but I’m pretty sure what he said was: “I did at one time when I was with Jim Bolger. My first 15 bets all won. The next one lost and I’ve never had another one since!”

I truly believe no other trainer would have dared run the horse that finished so far back at Newmarket, and Roger Varian for one is wishing he didn’t. Roger was described as looking “gutted” when visiting the boys in the box on Saturday; no wonder, for otherwise his King Of Steel, a 66/1 half-length runner-up on stable and seasonal debut, would have been a near five-length Derby hero.

Varian, who won the St Leger for Derrick Smith’s son Paul with Kingston Hill, is sure to gain further attention for, like O’Brien, he was fulsome in the constant encouragement of his colt’s chances, despite the massive odds.

Aidan might not be a betting man nowadays. The three main Coolmore owners certainly have been. In each case, though, they have transcended their earlier status to the extent that, thanks to Aidan O’Brien, their place in the fabric of the English Turf will be forever as the most important players in the history of the Derby. Nothing more, nothing less!

  • TS

Roving Reports: The Month of May

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Ah, the month of May. Those who like their speed of the four-wheeled rather than four-legged variety will tell you that means the Indy 500 and Monaco Grand Prix, writes David Massey. I haven't been to Monaco this month, but I did stay for five races at Market Rasen the other week, and that's very much the same.

For me, May means a first visit to York and in this case, a second one, last week, too. The initial one was for the Dante meeting and for all it's one of the summer Festivals it's not a particularly well-attended one and the Wednesday of the meeting was one of the quietest days I've known at the place.

That's not to say it was totally dead: business was okay but no more than that. It did give me a chance to have a quick chat to one or two people, including our esteemed editor, Matt Bisogno, looking like a million dollars in loose change in his suit and sunglasses [too kind, cheque in the post! - Ed.], and my good friend Emily. Emily and I have two things in common - a love of racing and a love of The Smiths, and the two of us went to see Morrissey in concert at Blackpool last year. I've not seen her since so it was great to catch up. Speaking of Blackpool, a long-term reader of mine, known only to me as Blackpool Jezza, introduced himself, too. Always great to meet the people that read this nonsense!

The racing? Well, it started off one of those days where, despite the big prices, punters seemed to have been told the winners as they came in. First race winner Scampi was the worst result for me on my side of the book, and Bielsa was no better in the sprint handicap.

As ever at York, a bit of thought goes into the winner's music as they are brought back in, and "Leeds, Leeds, Leeds" comes over the PA as Bielsa is brought back in. We'll also get a blast of Leicester City fans as The Foxes returns after winning the Dante the following day. I'm less sure about football chanting as a suitable recompense for winning a Classic trial, but there we go.

Frankie. He can't pack up soon enough as far as the bookmakers are concerned. He could be riding a Skegness kids donkey and I guarantee you a dozen people would still back it, convinced he could somehow get it home in front. Soul Sister wins the Musidora by an easy four lengths and the only solace I can take is that, if this had been a Saturday card, the payout queue would have stretched back to Tadcaster.

Business is a little better on the Thursday and better again on the Friday, and results fairly kind. The biggest bet I take over the three days is a monkey on Broome in the Yorkshire Cup, and that never looks like copping. That rather shows level of business over the three days. Indeed, the moaning from the rails firms suggests that the ring was arguably better business than they saw.

York last Saturday was much better business. A two-hour pick (which means we take our positions at 11.35, not long after the course has actually opened the gates) meant an early start, but once prices go up just after 12 it feels busier.

There's an Irish band playing, but I have to say, with sun beating down, people out enjoying the day with a pint, I'm not sure whether The Fields Of Athenry is quite cutting it. If they were belting out a few Pogues numbers to get them going then fair enough, but whether a song about famine sets the right tone is open to debate.

Anyway, the first winner, Doctor Khan Junior, goes totally unbacked on my side of things, and I can't ever remember the first race at York throwing up a skinner.

By the way, how did we miss that? A Geoff Oldroyd winner in the Bond colours at York on the day the Reg Bond Handicap takes place at the end of the day? As my mate Joe pointed out to me as it sailed past the post in front, jabbing his finger at me, "as a tipster, isn't it your job to notice these things?" It is, and I hang my head in shame. We could have had a 28-1 winner if I'd been a bit more on the ball.

One thing you don't need on a Saturday is a withdrawn horse. The only way it could be worse is if it's the favourite. Well, The Line provides us with that nightmare scenario in the next. A 45p Rule 4 gets punters irate enough, but as ever, the announcement of the withdrawal gets totally lost over the PA and creates confusion.

How many times do I have to say this? To all racecourses - USE YOUR BIG SCREENS WHEN THESE OCCASIONS OCCUR. SHOW your customers what has happened, don't tell them, because half of them can't hear. As I write this on the Wednesday after the meeting, six of my punters are yet to collect their money back on the non-runner and I guess they aren't going to now.

At the same time I'm trying to explain to punters what's happened, I'm also fielding a call from Chester as our man at the track can't get wifi and can't take bets as a result. So I've punters chewing one ear off and a man with IT issues (and doesn't understand how wifi works) in the other. It wasn't the most fun 15 minutes of the day, let me tell you.

No sooner have I sorted his tech problem out than my own system goes down. Now I can't take bets either. I restart the system and it works, but only for a couple of minutes before it all goes down again. This is going to be a long job. I'm losing valuable betting time and punters are heading elsewhere. When I'm finally up and running they're going in the stalls. My take on that race is a third of what I took on the previous one. It's not going well.

River Of Stars is actually a good result in the Bronte and Starnberg an even better one in the handicap that follows. The laptop has another moment and basically I think everything is overheating, so I try and keep it all in the shade, which does seem to help. I'm overheating too, so it's off to the bar whilst the race is on to get some iced water.

You do not need to be a genius to work out what everyone wants to back in the last. Yes, to a man and a woman, Yorkshire, the short-priced and appropriately-named favourite, is the one that they want. When that's sunk without trace, I know it'll be a quick pack away after the last and we're in the car and heading home within half an hour. It must have been a good day as the boss comes out of the BP filling station with two Magnums for the journey home.

Next stop is the Derby. I have a feeling there may be things to report back with, if the news is to be believed. It'll be interesting to see what effect the train strike will have, if any. I'll tell you next time. I'm off to listen to some Chas 'N Dave to get me in the mood...

- DM

Jockey Profiles: Hollie Doyle

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The first in a new series of articles looking at jockeys, this one will be focusing on Hollie Doyle, writes Dave Renham.

Hollie is still just 26 and has risen up the ranks quickly. She began as an apprentice at the Richard Hannon yard in 2014 and, by 2017, had ridden out her claim. Incidentally, in 2016, while still a five pound claimer, she rode a 25/1 winner for a geegeez.co.uk syndicate, Table Manners trained by Wilf Storey at Newcastle.

The 2019 campaign was her first real milestone when she rode 116 winners, in doing so setting a new record for the number of winners achieved by a female jockey in Britain. The following year, 2020, was another big one with her first win at Royal Ascot, her first Group race success, a win on Champions Day at Ascot (the first female to achieve this) swiftly followed in the next race by her first Group 1 triumph, aboard Glen Shiel. Since then Hollie has continued to go from strength to strength and is unquestionably one of the top jockeys around.

**

How to Use Profiler

Normally when gathering data for my articles on Geegeez, I use Query Tool or Draw Analyser or Pace analyser, or a combination of the three.  However, for this piece I obtained a good chunk of the data from the Profiler tool. You can find Profiler by clicking on the ‘Tools’ menu item. Once there, you will be presented with this somewhat sparse screen, and an invitation to "Enter a horse, trainer, jockey or sire name to begin":

 

 

As that instruction suggests, Profiler allows us to drill down into the record of any horse, trainer, jockey or sire. It is the same principle for each research area, but if wanting to research a jockey such as Hollie Doyle, we need to type their name into the Search bar at the top, and click the 'Jockeys tab'. This will display the following:

 

 

Clicking the 'Profile' button populates the 17 categories highlighted in blue in the first screen shot and thus creates a huge web page full of data. As the first variable in the list, the going stats will be displayed at the top and for Hollie Doyle’s search they came up as follows:

 

 

As can be seen we have a wealth of data, both win and each way. We also have a PRB figure (percentage of rivals beaten) which is an excellent ‘extra’ stat. Having data for 17 different categories all on one page is extremely useful.

For this piece I needed to adjust the Date Range filters because I wanted to look specifically at the years from 2015 to 2022. I also wanted to look at both flat (turf) and all weather racing so I set the filters as follows: (N.B. these filters were in place for the Going data shown above):

 

 

There are a number of other filters so, for example, you can look at just handicap data if you wish, just the wins, and so on. Also, we can drill into National Hunt racing data if we want to. It should be noted that when using the Profiler, it returns both UK and Irish results combined.

OK, so I have my parameters set, now it's time to dig into the stats. Before sharing my findings I should mention that as well as using the Profiler Tool for this research, I have used other sources,  including Query Tool. In all the tables profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP; I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

 

Hollie Doyle: Overall Record

Let us first look at Doyle’s baseline figures across every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

This is a thoroughly decent record: her A/E index of 0.91 is above the ‘average’ figure for all jockeys, which is 0.86. Likewise, her overall PRB figure of 0.54 is nicely above the 0.50 average mark. Losses of around 16 pence in the £ to SP convert to close to breaking even (losses of under 2p in the £) at exchange SP.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Year

I first wish to breakdown Doyle's stats by year. Here is a breakdown showing win percentage (or Strike Rate (SR%) if you prefer):

 

 

We can easily ignore the first year in the sample, 2015, as Hollie only had 39 rides in that year; and we can see how it often goes for a top jockey rising out of the apprentice ranks: a steady start launches into high strike rates as the claim's value is utilised, followed by a more challenging period post-riding out the claim, before blossoming into a top tier rider.

Hollie's profile mimics this perfectly: she rode out her claim in 2017 before a season of consolidation - more rides but fewer winners in 2018 - after which the last four years have seen her highest strike rates. Not only have the last four years seen her highest strike rates, but her most consistent ones too. 2019 to 2022 have seen strike rates within 1.3% of each other.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Distance

A look at her record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands and, again, I am comparing win strike rates:

 

 

The highest strike rate has occurred in the longer distance events (1m 7f or more); but, having said that, the data set is much smaller (just 199 races). Compare that to the 7f to 1 mile results which come from 1920 races, almost ten times as many. The vast majority of Doyle’s rides come in races of 1 mile or less – roughly 69% of all her rides have been over these shorter distances. This, in fact, perfectly mirrors the percentage of races which are run at a mile or shorter, which is unsurprising, I guess.

In a previous article on jockeys and run style I highlighted Doyle as a jockey that does well in handicaps on front runners; in sprints (5 to 6f) and also races of 7f to 1 mile. I will look in more detail at her run style data later.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Profiler gives a breakdown of performance by starting price splitting it up into seven price brackets. I have taken Hollie’s record straight from that table:

 

 

If you had backed all Doyle’s mounts focusing on the shorter end of the price (17/2 or shorter), you would have lost only 5p in the £. To Betfair SP though, that would have turned into a small profit of just over 4p in £. However, the value to be had with these runners has largely evaporated now she's a relative household name. In terms of very big priced runners (28/1 or bigger) only a handful have won. These have produced significant losses to SP and even to BSP losses stand at a weighty 35p in the £.

Hollie Doyle: Record by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Hollie Doyle has had at least 75 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically in the table below:

 

 

I want to mention that course strike rates can sometimes be slightly misleading due to the average field sizes being vastly different from one track to another. For example, in the past eight seasons, the average field size (all races) at Ascot has been just under 12; contrast this with Ffos Las whose average has been around 7.6. Hence, using solely strike rates when comparing Ascot  with Ffos Las is not a statistically sensible play. I am not saying that a course strike rate is without use but, as with any single piece of information, it is useful to combine it with others.

The two stats that most interest me from a course perspective are the A/E indices and the PRB figures. Doyle’s figures for Yarmouth stand out with an A/E index of 1.30 and a PRB figure of 0.58. In addition the strike rate is high and she has made decent profits to SP. Her profits to BSP stand at an even more impressive +£90.55 (ROI +65.6%), and these figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners. It is also noteworthy that she has ridden winners at Yarmouth for a good number of different trainers (21 in total), so it is not one or two specific trainers providing all of the winning rides. Sticking with Yarmouth for one more stat, when Doyle has been riding a horse priced 8/1 or shorter she has secured 28 win from 88 rides. This equates to an excellent strike rate of 32%.

Before moving away from courses, one course that did not make the list due to having had only 46 rides was Pontefract. The stats, though, are very strong despite this smallish sample – 14 wins (SR 30.4%) for an SP profit of £22.19 (ROI +48.2%). A/E index of 1.55; PRB figure of 0.58.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Trainer

Some punters love to follow certain trainer / jockey combinations and, although I don't generally, I think certain combos do produce some betting opportunities that represent value. Here are the trainers for whom Doyle has ridden at least 50 times (ordered by strike rate):

 

 

As you can see, Archie Watson provides Doyle with a high proportion of her rides. Although she has not made a profit on the 939 spins in that sample, she has done on his more fancied runners. To wit, horses priced 4/1 or shorter have provided the Doyle/Watson combination with 150 wins from 418 runners (SR 35.9%) showing a small SP profit of £14.07 (ROI +3.4%). To BSP this improves to +£40.68 (ROI +9.7%).

Her record with Alan King is excellent; not just because of the profit figure, but because the PRB is exceptionally high at 0.64. One other combo to mention is Hollie with the Gosden stable. The results are not in the table because they have only combined on 36 horses but, of these, 13 have won (SR 36.1%) for an excellent SP profit of £32.32 (ROI +89.8%). Where the Doyle/King PRB is impressive, the Doyle/Gosden figures trump them, standing at 0.69 (i.e. 69% of all rivals beaten). I think it would be worth keeping a close eye on the Gosden and King stables this season (and beyond), looking out for any Hollie Doyle booking.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record with Days since last run / horse layoff

A unique feature of the Profiler Tool (compared with the Query Tool) is the fact it gives you data for days since the horse last ran. Doyle’s figures are as follows:

 

 

As we can see Hollie has made a profit on horses whose last run was within a week of their prior start. As a general rule, my assumption, as with many others, has been that horses with shorter breaks outperform horses that are off the track for longer. This is the first time I have seen any PRB figures for any fitness based variable such as this. It is interesting, and pleasing to see the sliding scale from 0.61 down to 0.41. These findings give me the impetus to check PRB figures for a bigger group of runners to see if the same sliding scale is repeated. I am guessing it is – if so it might become the basis for an article in the future.

 

Hollie Doyle: Draw Awareness

Another first for me: this is the first time I have tried to drill down into this type of idea. Essentially punters, bookies, trainers and jockeys are aware of draw biases. Some will over- or under-estimate bias, but one would hope that seasoned jockeys understand the effect of the draw at most courses better than most. It is clearly a difficult area to research but I thought I had enough data for Hollie at one particular course, namely Kempton, to try to do this. My idea was simple: I wanted to compare her record in 8 or more runner handicaps at Kempton over 5f to 1 mile, with other jockeys, purely from a draw perspective. Kempton over these four distances (5f, 6f, 7f & 1m) offers a low draw edge and hence I wanted to compare Doyle’s record when drawn 1 to 4 (the best four draws) with all other jockeys. To do this, I decided to calculate the relevant PRB figures as these I would assume to be the most accurate, as they create bigger data sets than, say, using win and each way data.

Hollie had over 100 qualifying handicap rides when drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over these Kempton distances and her PRB figure was 0.60. The combined figure for all other jockeys is 0.55. This leads me to conclude, at least from these Kempton stats, that she has good draw awareness: she has performed notably above the norm when her horses have been well drawn at Kempton. I did check the non-handicap figures at Kempton using the same parameters – in these cases, she had fewer qualifying rides than in handicaps (44), but her PRB figure was a very impressive 0.63, the overall non handicap jockey figure stands at 0.53.

This is clearly a challenging area to research in great depth from an individual jockey perspective, due to small course and distance data sets. For example, you probably would not get enough individual data at Chester unless a jockey had ridden there regularly for 20 years or more, as that track does not host many meetings over a 12 month period. Kempton, however, has so many race meetings each year this is a course that lends itself to this avenue of research. Something else to maybe write about more in the future?

One further caveat worth mentioning with this type of research is the fact that there is some selection bias in the quality of top riders' mounts compared with the average.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Run Style

I mentioned earlier a recent article in which I touched upon Doyle’s positive record on front runners in handicaps at the sprint distances of 5f and 6f, but also at 7f and 1m. Well, Hollie's record from the front is actually extremely good across the board – handicaps / non-handicaps, and any distance. Yes, she has a higher strike rate on front runners running over shorter distances, but in all races of 1m1f or more her strike rate on these pace setters still hits just over 20% (A/E 1.10). This ranks her 9th out of all jockeys currently riding in the UK in terms of win strike rate (150 front running rides or more over 1m1f+ from 2015 to 2022), 12th if including Irish jockeys. In terms of A/E index she lies 11th (UK), 15th (UK and Ireland). For the record the average win strike for ALL jockeys over 1m1f+ stands at 15.6%.

Here is a breakdown of Hollie Doyle's run style performance across ALL races:

 

 

She has an excellent close to one win in four record with front runners, whereas with hold up horses this drops markedly to less than one win in every 12. The A/E figures correlate as the following chart shows:

 

 

As regular readers of my articles will know front runners have an edge at a majority of courses and distances, so the patterns seen for Doyle should come as no real surprise. That said, her figures are well above the norm over all distances, and if she is booked to ride a horse that often front runs, that ought to be seen as a double positive in cases where the pace map indicates an even tempo or, especially, Hollie's mount is the probable lone speed angle.

Before winding up the run style stats, let me share her record when riding the favourite:

 

 

More evidence, as if it was really needed, about the importance of early track position.

[As a side note, using favourite in run style analysis removes any selection bias regarding 'good horses at the front, bad ones at the back'. In spite of this levelling of the playing field, one invariably sees this type of strong front of field bias. Keep this in mind if you're currently backing plenty of fancied horses with a hold up run style!]

 

Some Extra Hollie Doyle Nuggets

With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you a few extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:

  1. When Hollie retains the ride after winning last time, her record reads 67 wins from 310 (SR 21.6%). Backing all runner to BSP would have yielded a profit of £31.12 (ROI +10.0%).
  2. Horses that finished second last time have a good record with Doyle on board. Of the 585 qualifiers, 139 have won (SR 23.8%) for a BSP profit of £74.03 (ROI +12.7%).
  3. In very small fields (2 to 4 runners) Doyle has secured 54 wins from 142 rides (SR 38.0%) for a BSP profit of £65.27 (ROI +46.0%). She made significant profits if backing to Industry SP, too (+£53.79).
  4. In Class 1 races, Hollie has done well if the horse has been fancied (defined as priced 10/1 or shorter). 25 wins from 109 (SR 22.9%) for a BSP profit of £26.29 (ROI +24.1%).

 

Hollie Doyle Main Takeaways

  1. Doyle has been extremely consistent in the past four years and as I am penning this piece her strike rate for 2023 is above her norm at 15.8%.
  2. When riding more fancied runners (17/2 or less) Hollie has made a small profit to BSP, though that may be due to historical data so some caution is advised.
  3. She has an excellent record at both Yarmouth and Pontefract.
  4. Doyle should be noted when riding for Alan King or the Gosden stable and, also, when riding for Archie Watson look out for shorter priced horses (4/1 or less).
  5. If Hollie is on board a horse that had run in the past seven days it tends to be a positive.
  6. At Kempton in races of 1m or less when drawn 4 or lower she has performed well above the norm.
  7. Doyle is an excellent rider from the front at all distances.
  8. The four "extra nuggets" shared immediately above.

*

There are plenty of Hollie Doyle stats to get to grips with in the above: lots of positives, and the occasional negative, too. Hollie should continue to give us plenty of potential betting opportunities in the coming weeks, months and, I hope, years. I really rate her as one of the very best around and, more importantly, the stats tend to agree!

- DR

Monday Musings: Aidan

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When Aidan O’Brien turned up at Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas three weekends ago, hopes were high in the Ballydoyle team that the stable would be collecting a tenth success in the first Classic of the year, writes Tony Stafford.

He had the favourite – the Vertem (ahem) Futurity winner, Auguste Rodin – of which nothing short of a comfortable victory was being entertained, as well as last year’s European Champion juvenile - by a massive 5lb margin - in Little Big Bear.

The former wound up finishing last of the 14 runners behind Chaldean, Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman, with Auguste Rodin 12th, both colts more than 20 lengths behind the Frankie Dettori-ridden winner.

Aidan declared it a non-event for his two colts, citing early scrimmaging involving them both and Royal Scotsman. He maintained the firm Derby objective for Auguste – the race that was envisaged as the second leg of his ambitious Triple Crown attempt - while announcing Little Big Bear would lick his wounds and go sprinting.

So, what of the Irish 2,000 this weekend just gone? Little Big Bear did indeed go sprinting and, with Ryan Moore busily employed for three days at the Curragh from Friday to yesterday, the peripatetic Signor Dettori eagerly offered his services.

If Frankie is one p- word, Aidan and the Coolmore boys are another – pragmatic in the extreme. In the six-furlong Group 2 Sandy Hill over six furlongs at Haydock Park, last year’s champion two-year-old was ranged among others against the 114-rated Bradsell, super-fast Royal Ascot winner for Archie Watson.

For a few strides coming into the last 300 yards, Bradsell briefly suggested a tussle might be forthcoming, but once Little Big Bear got Frankie’s serious message through the reins, the result was stark. Bradsell didn’t just go under, he collapsed. The easy way is to say he didn’t stay – although probably he didn’t and the move back to five furlongs is sensible - but the truth is, he was humiliated by his rival.

As striking as was this powerful son of No Nay Never’s acceleration, the determined way runner-up Shouldhavebeenaring from the Richard Hannon stable managed to hold the deficit at one and a half lengths, was almost as impressive. He had drawn eight lengths clear of Bradsell at the line.

Now the Commonwealth Cup/ July Cup summer double must be Little Big Bear’s programme, and I’m sure Aidan and the boys, not to mention Ryan who will have been licking his lips in anticipation, will have a wary eye on the Hannon dark horse in both.

Of course, this coming weekend there are bigger fish to fry in the Derby for the other member of the Guineas non-eventers. So, what did Aidan contrive to restore stable honour faced with the 2-3 from Newmarket in Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman, representing Kevin Ryan and Paul and Oliver Cole respectively?

It probably didn’t take too much scrutiny among the 50 Classically bred colts in the Ballydoyle stables (*source Horses in Training 2023) to identify the next star cab off the rank. Step forward Paddington, actually and bizarrely not listed in the HIT team, a winner second time out last autumn by five lengths in a maiden.

For his return right at the start of the new season in March, Aidan chose a handicap at Naas in which the Irish assessor had obligingly allotted a mark of 97 for the 20-runner Curragh romp the previous September.

Next came a Listed race, won by a length and a half from stable-companion Drumroll over the course and distance of Saturday’s Classic. Drumroll finished second past the post again in yesterday’s Gallinule Stakes (Group 3) but having been bumped a couple of times by the original winner, was awarded the race.

O’Brien found two additional candidates for the colts’ Classic. First was Age Of Kings, a Kingman colt who had been some way behind Bradsell in last year’s Coventry Stakes, but later Group placed in Ireland, before off the track for almost a year. He beat one home.

More intriguing was Cairo, a son of US sire Quality Road and as such regarded as suitable to challenge for the UAE Derby on dirt on Dubai World Cup night.

This presumably was to have been the prelude to a tilt at the Kentucky Derby. He started favourite at Meydan but faded away to 10th of 13 and any US challenge never materialised.

Instead, he turned up on Saturday as back up to Paddington and in typical Aidan O’Brien style ran on to complete the exacta, just ahead of Hi Royal, who had a spirited set-to with the winner until cracking in the last 100 yards.

In a welcome return to the big time, veteran handler Paul Cole, now with training duties and recognition shared with son Oliver, has a horse of real ability. Royal Scotsman had extricated himself from the early muddle with the two Coolmore stars at HQ to stay on for a very good third.

As Hi Royal had been rated only 92 as he entered the stalls in the 2000 Guineas (115 after), starting at 125/1, Royal Scotsman was expected to reverse the Newmarket form, and was the 6/4 favourite on the Curragh, but he was never in contention under Jamie Spencer and finished a disappointing ninth.

Now Paddington surely will be the number one from O’Brien to challenge Chaldean in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when Brian Meehan’s French 2000 narrow runner-up Isaac Shelby could also be in the line-up.

The Coolmore partners clearly have a high regard for Siyouni, sire of Paddington and two of their highest-profile young stallions in Sotsass and St Mark’s Basilica. Paddington has elbowed his way into the top table of three-year-old colts from last year’s European Free Handicap.

Of the five top rated colts and one filly last year, four of the colts including the “scrimmaging trio” as well as the winner Chaldean, were all on show on the first Saturday in May. The exception was Blackbeard, retired to stud after a busy campaign in the top juvenile races over six furlongs, for Group 1 wins in the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes for Coolmore.

The filly in question was of course the narrowly beaten 1000 Guineas favourite Tahiyra, just outlasted by Godolphin’s Mawj with the rest well beaten off. Dermot Weld said before Newmarket that he wished he had two more weeks with her after she had been held up by the wet spring.

Now with the required extra time, she was fully primed for her home 1000 Guineas, and was the overwhelming favourite. The Newmarket race had proved a disappointment for the O’Brien team, with Meditate not matching last year’s form, but she was back in full cry yesterday, Ryan Moore always having her well placed. They went for home in the straight, but Tahiyra and Chris Hayes always had her in their sights and the Weld filly won comfortably.

Jim Bolger has yet another potential star on his hands in the Vocalised filly Comhra, a 150/1 shot after two unplaced runs in Group 3 trials this spring, but a closing third here. In another two strides she would have been second and so fast did she finish, I doubt Bolger will have any fear of taking on the first two at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes.

Two home wins, including the 2000 and one Group 2 race at Haydock, made for a great Saturday. Four wins yesterday, all with Ryan in the saddle, made for a veritable feast, highlighted by Luxembourg’s tremendous performance in holding off Sir Michael Stoute’s top-class Bay Bridge in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, a second Group 1 of the weekend. Favourite here was last year’s French 2000 and Prix du Jockey Club winner Vadeni, 11/8 with a previous run behind him, but he was a well-beaten fifth yesterday as the front two drew clear.

Vadeni had been a close third to Luxembourg in last September’s Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown before running a wonderful second to Alpinista in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Luxembourg, clearly improving, promises many more successes. And if Auguste Rodin does win the Derby, a season which was initially viewed with trepidation by the Coolmore partners could develop into a vintage one, even by their and O’Brien’s standards.

One notable absentee on Derby Day – apart from me, owing to an unexpected domestic issue – is Sir Rupert Mackeson, yes, of the brewing family, but more significantly, the man who for many years has run the bookshop on Britain’s racecourses. He was a fixture at Epsom’s summer meeting and a couple of years ago, I spotted a lovely water colour on his stall which Derby winning owner Khalifa Dasmal (Shaamit) was delighted to acquire.

Rupert has struggled manfully with physical difficulties for many years, yet even approaching his 80’s he remains as mentally sharp as he ever was. I helped him on his stand at Ascot for a couple of days one September a few years back and very much enjoyed the experience, marvelling at his knowledge of his subject.

Over the years, he became very friendly with Lester Piggott, who regularly visited the Epsom pitch on Derby Day. Had he still been in his old Derby Day location, he had planned a Lester Piggott Oaks/Derby exhibition, with many items signed by the King of Epsom. This will now be located at Weston Super Frames, 17 Locking Road, Weston super-Mare BS23 3UY. I hope it goes well.

-TS

Gold Upgrades: May 2023

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It's been a while since we've released any new features to Gold, so I'm excited to share a couple of small - but awesome - upgrades with you. The first may be imperceptible (but probably won't be), the second is niche, and the third is a new rating... let's get to it.

1 Remember settings

You know how you always do the same thing when you go to the cards to see the info that's right for you? For me, this means setting the draw tab to 'Actual' and PRB/PRB3/PRB in the three dropdowns; and setting the Pace tab heat map to 'Place%'; and incessantly re-sorting the Instant Expert grid when I change one of the top of the page variables.

Well, no more... yay!

Why?

Because we've introduced some 'local memory' improvements so that things remain as you set them up if you're using the same machine as the one you set them up on. Here's what I mean: let's say you, like me, look at PRB views on the 'Draw' tab.

 

Up until now, if you were logged out or otherwise left the site, you'd have to re-select the parameters as you like them. But, from now, you'll see those settings remembered and appearing as a matter of course when you go to the tab.

Likewise, that minor irritation of having to re-sort the Instant Expert table after every variable amend:

 

Not any more. Now you can change anything at the top of the Instant Expert and the grid will remain in the order you had it. Phew, what a relief!

 

We've added 'remember' functions to all tabs, which will certainly save me a goodly few clicks most days, and hopefully ease your transit around the cards a little, too.

N.B. This is the case if you're using the same machine/browser and don't clear your cache/cookies. Even if you do clear cache from time to time, like me, it's still only an occasional faff to redefine your parameters. And that will remind you of when you had to do it every time and make you grateful 😉

 

2 Added PRB to Pace 'Heat Map' view and table

I've wanted this for a loooong time. Trying to infer the impact of the combination of draw and run style can be really difficult when the sample sizes are small, which is why I use 'Place %' rather than 'Win %' - because place percent gives meaning to each of the placed horses, whereas win percent only does that for the first one home.

Let's say we only have four ten-horse races in the sample size. That would mean 12 placed horses and just four winning horses. Obviously, then, the heat map could be skewed especially when looking at win percent.

PRB - Percentage of Rivals Beaten - assigns value to every runner in every race, aside from the last horse home whose value is 0 (0% of rivals beaten). In our fictional four race sample above, we now have 40 (or 36 if you exclude Tail End Charlie's) scored horses from which to form some sort of perspective.

Anyway, PRB is better in my view, especially when looking at almost any flat turf race (the all-weather sample sizes tend to be much larger and, therefore, more meaningful in traditional win/place strike rate terms).

 

Note the PRB option in the dropdown box top right and, directly below that, a new PRB column in the pace table. This will immediately be my 'de facto' setting; and, of course, in this brave new world that setting will be remembered!

3 Introducing Performance Ratings

Everyone loves a rating, right? Here at geegeez we have a fair number these days, what with official ratings, Racing Post Ratings, Topspeed, Peter May's private ratings, and our sectional upgrade figures - and that's assuming you don't use our ratings tool to create and save your own 'R1' numbers! But these Performance Ratings are pretty nifty and I think they'll add value for some users at least. What are they? I'm glad you asked...

These are the BHA's own race figures. They differ from Official Rating (OR) in that they are a measure of the level to which a horse has been judged to have run in a specific race. So, for a horse going up the handicap, OR and the Performance Rating (PR) will be the same.

Here's Sayifyouwill, a last time out winner off 79 - she was raised 3lb to 82 for that, as a result of her PR for the last day win being adjudged to have been 82:

 

 

But when a horse runs below its handicap mark, it won't necessarily be dropped to its performance level. For instance, Cry Havoc won a couple of times before running poorly on her most recent two starts:

 

 

Looking from bottom to top, we see she was 1st of 14 and, running off 79, was raised to 82. She then won in a field of 11 off her revised OR of 82 and was awarded a new PR of 86. On her penultimate start, when sixth of eight, she ran to a PR of just 69 and yet her handicap mark (OR) remained unchanged on 86. Another poor run, this time eliciting a PR of just 34 when running off 86 and trailing home last of six followed. After that, she was dropped a pound to an OR of 85 (not shown).

So what do these PR figures tell us? Well, they quantify the degree to which a horse may have underperformed and, when looking at the last few runs of a horse, they can help us build a profile of progression / regression in a similar way to RPR.

PR figures will start building as a history from now - we don't have the historic data, unfortunately - and there are some caveats, as follows:

- We will never publish a PR figure where there is no published OR (in other words, before a horse receives a handicap mark)

- We will never publish a PR figure for runs prior to the awarding of a handicap mark

- We will never publish a PR figure for Irish racing

The reason in each case is the same: we don't have access to them! Such data are a closely guarded secret at BHA towers and we are permitted to publish only what is available on the BHA website itself.

NOTE: You need to 'turn on' the PR ratings from the Racecard Options area of your My Geegeez page:

 

Over time, I feel that these PR figures will be a useful guide to horses' form profile and may also help to shed some light on optimal conditions for more exposed runners.

For more information on Performance Ratings, check out this article on the BHA's website.

*

That's all for now - I hope there's something of use to you in the above.

Good luck,

Matt

p.s. the SBC Awards votes close tomorrow at 9pm. geegeez.co.uk has been voted in two categories - Best Betting Website and Best Betting Data Resource - and your vote counts! There are also prizes to be won in a draw, as follows:

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To vote, click here. It'll take about 120 seconds. And thanks a million!

Jockeys and Run Style Revisited

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In this article I will be looking at my favourite area of research, namely running styles / pace, writes Dave Renham. As I have mentioned numerous times before, knowing how a race is likely to “pan out” in terms of a potential “pace angle” can give us an important edge.

Being able to predict the running style of each horse in a race can be liquid gold in certain circumstances but, as we know, in most cases this is trending towards the impossible. However, using past run style data we can make an informed judgement, and certain races will be easier to predict how things will pan out than others. In terms of past running style, arguably the most important factor is the horse itself, especially if it has a preferred pace position. However, there are other dynamics to consider, including the other horses in the race, the draw at certain tracks and over certain distances, the trainer, and the jockey.  And it is that last variable I'll be delving into for the remainder of the article.

A jockey can certainly make a big difference in any race, especially when it comes to pace or running styles. How often have you seen a jockey set a steady gallop in front and manage to repel all rivals for a pillar to post victory? Just the other day at Chester we saw a masterclass of that from Hollie Doyle, aboard Pride Of America in a 1m2f handicap (12/5/23). Hollie got to the front, dictated the tempo, and then cleverly kicked for home earlier than the other jockeys were expecting. She now had them all on the stretch and kicked three lengths clear around two furlongs out. The favourite gradually closed as they reached the final furlong and possibly got a neck in front with 150 yards to go. However, the energy it had used up to get back to Pride Of America meant he had nothing left for the finish and Doyle’s mount pulled away again for a classy success.

For this article I have looked at five years' worth of data (1/1/18 to 31/12/22) including both turf and all weather racing, but in the UK only (i.e. not Ireland). My focus has been on handicap races and I will start over the two sprint trips of 5 and 6 furlongs. Before I crack on, let me give you an overview of run style and what it means (regular readers will know this inside out by now I hope!).

The run style stats have been sourced from this website's data – specifically the Query Tool. The run style data here at Geegeez is split into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section.

The numbers are really helpful as we can use them to drill down and build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be.

Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front runner;

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

Jockeys in Sprint Handicaps (5f - 6f)

As a starting point let us see which jockeys took the early lead the most (in % terms) in sprint handicaps at up to six furlongs. I have included jockeys that have had at least 100 rides over this 5-year period and who are currently still riding in the UK – those with the highest 15 percentages are shown below:

 

 

For comparison purposes the average for ALL jockeys in terms of taking the early lead is 14.2%. Thus, Ross Coakley and Kieran O’Neill both go forward early nearly twice as often as the average. Now, a look at those jockeys that have the lowest percentages:

 

 

There are a couple of very well-known jockeys in this cohort: Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer. Spencer is renowned for his hold up style as a jockey, so that should come as no surprise. However, Ryan Moore may raise more eyebrows, as less than 6% of his sprint handicap rides have seen him take the lead early. Moore-ridden sprint handicappers have been held up more than any of the other three run styles (mid division, prominent, led), but only 11.7% of them have won. Compare this to the combined figure of horses he's ridden prominently or led aboard which have won 22.2% of the time in the same group of races. Moore is a well-respected and successful jockey, but in sprint handicaps would I want him riding a horse I'm keen on? Probably not.

Jockeys who can get their mounts to front run more often than most in sprints are definitely worth noting, but one could (rightly) argue that the win percentages for jockeys when on front runners is more important. For example, if a jockey had taken the lead in 25% of races but won only 5% of them then this turns into a negative. In contrast, a jockey that has led early in say 15% of races but won 25% of the time when taking the early lead is definitely a positive. Of course, the ideal is to have a jockey that gets to the front early a high percentage of the time, and goes on to win a high percentage of the time!

Therefore, let us now look at the top performing jockeys in terms of win % when on a front runner (30 front running rides minimum):

 

 

For comparison purposes the average win SR% for ALL front running jockeys in handicap sprints stands at 18.1%. It's good to see Messrs Coakley, Hart, Callan and Bryan in this table – they were also in the top 15 of early leading jockeys shown earlier. Some of the datasets are quite small, so we do need to be aware of this but, when it comes to Jason Hart, we have plenty of evidence with which to work. Hence let's dig a little deeper into Hart's run style record in 5-6f handicaps.

Jason Hart's Run Style in Sprint Handicaps (up to 6f)

As we have seen Jason Hart front runs / leads early in roughly a quarter of all handicap sprints in which he rides. Of these 27.2% went on to win. These are impressive and powerful numbers and I am always on the look-out for which horse Hart is riding in such contests.

Look at Hart compared to the average jockey, in terms of run style: there are two columns in the graph below. The orange columns show what percentage of horses displayed that particular running/pace style for all the jockeys; this is our control group data if you like. The blue columns are the figures for Hart. So, for instance, leaders accounted for 14% of all runners when examining the ALL jockey data, whereas Hart led on 25.5% of his sprint handicap rides; prominent racers were 33.4% for all jockeys versus 39.9% for Hart, and so on.

 

 

The graph is useful as it is an easy way to compare the data. Jason Hart clearly understands the importance of track position in sprints: 65.4% of the time he either gets to, or is close to, the front early. This is far higher than the average figure for ALL jockeys which stands at 47.6%.

If we look at the win and place breakdown for Hart, we can really see the importance of track position:

 

 

As the table shows, if you had been able to back every front running sprinter Hart rode, you would have made a huge profit, not just if backing to win, but backing each way also. Not only that, we need also to remember these profit/loss figures are calculated to Industry SP. Just imagine the profits if backing on the exchanges or taking BOG! Prominent racers would have made us a profit if backing to win also. The stats/returns for midfield and hold up horses are poor for Hart in these quick fire events – but we know from previous research this is almost always the case regardless of rider or situation.

For the record Hart has taken 123 different horses to the front early in these races and, of those he has ridden from the front four times or more, 15 of the 16 won at least once. Indeed these 16 horses have combined to front run in 107 races of which they were successful on 40 occasions, which equates to a hugely impressive 37.4% strike rate.

There is one more Jason Hart stat to share which is his record on front runners in handicap sprints when his horse was in the top three of the betting: he has won on these horses a staggering 41.2% of the time with SP returns equating to 90p in the £. Looking at the ALL jockey figures for these fancied runners, the strike rate is just 29.2%.

Before moving on, Hollie Doyle is another jockey who has done well on similarly fancied runners, scoring over 38% of the time.

Jockeys in 7f & 1m Handicaps

Up in trip now. To start with I will look once again at which jockeys took the early lead most often (in % terms) in these races. As with the sprints I have included jockeys who had at least 100 rides over the 5-year period and who are currently still riding in the UK – those with the highest 15 percentages are shown below:

 

 

Theodore Ladd has staggering figures, taking his runners to the lead over a third of the time. Next highest is Frankie Dettori, albeit with a 12% lower figure.

It should be noted that front runners in handicaps are not as successful over 7f-1m compared with 5-6f but, generally, they do still have an edge, as the graph below shows:

 

 

As can be seen a front runner is twice as likely to win as any individual hold up horse. For the record, if we had been able to use our crystal ball to predict the front runner in every qualifying race we would have made a profit of £1954.92 to £1 level win stakes, equating to returns to Industry SP of over 22p in the £.

Time to see which jockeys have performed best from the front in terms of win strike rate (50 front running rides minimum / 7f-1m handicaps):

 

 

William Buick heads the list on 30% which is excellent. He also appeared in the best percentage table for 5-6f handicaps earlier; much of this will be down to the well-drilled Charlie Appleby horses on which he typically has first dibs. Hollie Doyle appears again also, as do Daniel Tudhope and Charles Bishop.

Data as we know can get skewed under certain circumstances, so I now want to examine jockey run style performance in these 7f-1m handicaps when the horses have come from the top three in the betting. This gives us a similar group of runners which renders jockey comparison arguably more effective. First let us breakdown overall win strike rates for all four run styles when the horses are in the top three in the betting:

 

 

Early leaders still enjoy a strong edge in this cohort of exclusively fancied runners. The overall strike rate for ALL runners from the top three in the betting stands at 20.3%, so these front runners score 35% more often than the average (27.4 / 20.3 = 1.35).

Let us review which jockeys have higher strike rates on top three in the betting front runners than the 27.4% average. In addition I will share the potential profit/loss figures should we have predicted the horse/jockey would get to the front early (40 qualifiers minimum):

 

 

Some impressive figures here – Buick is again prominent in the list with an excellent 43% win success, though Tom Marquand just pips him on 44.4%. Hollie Doyle has very good stats once more.

Run style/pace averages by jockey

In order to give us a more complete picture I have produced jockey run style/pace averages. I have used these averages in the past not just for jockeys, but courses and trainers as well. I simply add up the Geegeez pace points for a particular jockey and divide it by the number of rides; the higher the average the more prominent the jockey tends to race. It makes sense to split these pace averages up into 5-6f and 7f-1m handicap figures.

I have also highlighted jockeys with high run style/pace averages (in green) and low run style/pace averages (in red). The colour coding parameters for each distance are slightly different as the average run style figure for 5-6f handicaps is 2.28, for 7f-1m it is a little lower at 2.21.

 

 

As a rule of thumb I would prefer to have a jockey with a green figure if riding a horse I wanted to bet at these distances. I also would check their win strike rate as well because, as I mentioned earlier, this is clearly important in terms of avoiding losing runs.

Before winding this piece up, here is a race example of how we could have combined our knowledge of both horse and jockey pace/run styles. It is from March 16th of this year and it was a 5f handicap at Southwell. The racecard below has been ordered by horse pace totals (last four runs):

 

 

As we know 5f handicaps generally give front runners a healthy edge and, looking at the horse data above, it seemed likely that the early pace will come from either Ustath, Brandy Station or Dapper Man. If we now look at the jockey run style pace averages (5-6f handicaps 2018-2022) we see the following:

 

 

Jason Hart, who was mentioned earlier in the article, tops the list and hence a combination of Dapper Man’s 14 points and Jason Hart’s preference to push his mounts up to or near the front early, looked a good partnership. Ustath (16 points) was ridden by Jonny Peate, but his average was relatively modest at 2.19; Brandy Station (14 points) was ridden by Zak Wheatley who had a decent enough figure of 2.42. From these stats and using solely run style/pace to find a selection, you would say that Dapper Man and Jason Hart looked the most obvious option with Brandy Station another to consider.

As is inevitably the way with example races, things panned out much as expected from a run style perspective: Ustath and Brandy Station disputed the lead for the first furlong before Dapper Man who had been tracking them took over. He led for the rest of the race and won at 8/1.

Obviously, not all races will go to script like this, but doing our run style homework should give us an edge over those who ignore run style completely, or do not fully understand it; jockeys definitely have a part to play and we need to be aware of that.

There are many other factors to consider when analysing any race, but run style bias can be potent, especially over certain courses and distances. In some cases I would argue it is the most important thing to consider. I hope this piece has further sparked your interest and, if you have not really considered run style before, this should offer some food for thought. Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: A Weekend in France

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It could only happen in France, writes Tony Stafford. There were 15 runners in the Grade 1 Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil on Saturday and despite seven from Ireland, four Willie and one Emmet Mullins, a dual Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle winner (Flooring Porter) for Gavin Cromwell, and last month’s impressive Sandown Grade 2 chase winner Hewick from Shark Hanlon, the French turfistes bet as though only one horse mattered.

Until a few weeks ago there would have been a big two, but over recent meetings, Theleme, Saturday’s 6/4 favourite trained by Arnaud Chaille-Chaille, so good a trainer they named him twice, had taken control. Last year, Hermes Baie had easily won the then eight-runner renewal by seven lengths from Mullins’ first string of three, Klassical Dream, who was coming on from winning at Punchestown, a feat he repeated late last month.

In another replica, while just preferred in the market to his conqueror, Klassical Dream was again seven lengths adrift of Hermes Baie, as that six-year-old got within a couple of lengths of his contemporary Theleme, a well beaten fourth last time. Still, third will have done quite nicely for Joanne Coleman and family and Mr and Mrs Mark Smith, not only enjoying a weekend in the French capital but also glorying in West Ham United’s Europa Conference League exploits. The bubbles surely will have been flowing and blowing!

This season, apart from an aberration when Goa Lil, a 7yo trained by Tom George’s son Noel, but running in the colours of Nigel Twiston-Davies, was allowed too long a lead and supplied an 18/1 shock against the long odds-on Theleme - Nige’s horse pulled up on Saturday – it’s been one way traffic.

The unusual thing I referred to at the start of the piece was the fact that in each of Theleme’s last dozen races over the past 20 months, Hermes Gaie has been among the opposition.  For their initial five encounters, Francois Nicolle’s charge had been on top, winning four of those races, but the tide has turned emphatically and Theleme is now unequivocally the master.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece about a one-time Willie Mullins horse, not to mention his initial trainer, Guillaume Macaire, and subsequent not insubstantial handlers, Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton. He’s a discard from Sullivan Racing and hardly the type to make a living out of racing in France, the land of his birth, you would think.

But over the past 18 months, from her base in Westbury-on-Severn, Gloucestershire, Sophie Leech and her husband Christian have been loading up the horsebox for the eight-hour trip to the Paris tracks to campaign said Lucky One, with spectacular form and financial results for owner Ben Halsall.

Last month, the eight-year-old won more than 50k in a race over 2m5f at France’s principal jumps track, and afterwards the team reasoned he was unexposed at the extended 3m1f of the Grande Course, so the foolhardy – it seemed to others – plan was hatched.

A glimpse at his UK rating of 114 – probably unrealistic as his last ten runs (all of them in fact since being bought out of the Skelton yard) – have been in France. He was raised to an exchange equivalent of 129 (from 120) for the last win.

What is as equally remarkable as Lucky One’s achievements is the Leech race planning of his programme. He has taken up and raced in eight of his last ten entries.

Surely, though, he would struggle in such company? Well, no, in the event he ran on from the rear into sixth, admittedly behind Irish trio Klassical Dream, Hewick, and Emmet Mullins’s lightly-raced Feronily, all of those recent Grade 1 scorers. But, in turn, he was well clear of Haut En Couleurs, Willie’s 146-rated hurdler and 10lb higher chaser, in 8th place; 156-rated Flooring Porter (9th), with Willie’s remaining pair Asterion Forlonge (155 hurdles, 162 chase) 10th and Kilcruit (145 and 160 chase) 11th.

Christian Leech said they were all thrilled at the result and he and Sophie are looking forward to exploiting the opportunities in what they regard as their “home” programme book next season. In the meantime, they had another nice result at Compiegne last week when Alnadam, a 42/1 shot, picked up 7k for his fourth in a Listed hurdle.

Eight lengths behind in fifth was the Harry Fry trained Might I, a 3/1 shot. Rated 20lb above the Leech horse in the UK ratings, but conceding only 2lb, he was easily beaten off. Alnadam can look forward to some more trips under the Channel in the coming weeks and months.

If Willie Mullins was pained at having four unsuccessful darts at the big hurdle, the gloom would have intensified yesterday when the well-publicised plan to return with last year’s third Franco De Port for the Grand Steeple Chase de Paris proved in vain as he trailed home eighth of 18.

The master trainer had planned out his season minutely, with three previous trips across to Paris along with a date in the Cheltenham Cross Country when he ran third to Gordon Elliott’s smart pair Delta Work and Galvin, but to no avail.

There were three UK connections faring rather better. Lord Daresbury, who in his days as Peter Greenall rode many good hunter chasers under the guidance of a master trainer of an earlier era, the irrepressible Arthur Stephenson, four decades ago. His lordship is the principal owner of the big race favourite Gex, who was backed down to a very short 9/5 before the off.

Most of the way it seemed inevitable that he would win but he was pestered out of it on the run-in by a determined Johnny Charron on Rosario Baron, trained by Daniela Mele. Fourth were two familiar names, Nick Littmoden and Jack Quinlan, trainer and rider of Imperil, who collected £71k.

The seven-year-old was bought originally from France as a juvenile and I was at Fakenham on New Year’s Day in 2020 when the son of No Risk At All made his Littmoden debut and cantered away with the 2nd division of the novice hurdle, beating a 40/1 shot trained by the late Shaun Keightley.

I was there to see Waterproof win the first division of that race for Keightley in the colours of Raymond Tooth. Jack Quinlan, pretty much the only jump jockey of any seniority in most of the past decade to be based in racing’s HQ, had done all the schooling on Waterproof and ridden him in his previous starts, but was unavailable for Fakenham when he could also have ridden Imperil.

My connection with Jack’s father Noel goes back a long way and probably as far as with Littmoden. In his days around 25 years ago – Nick first took out a licence in 1994 – he trained on the track at Dunstall Park, Wolverhampton. In response to my asking whether he had anything for sale privately, he came up with two hard-working handicappers which were passed on to Kuwaiti brothers who raced on a small private track.

When, after a season, they reported back that between them they had won 15 races (one seven and the other eight), unwisely I passed on the “good news” to their previous trainer and Nick refused to sell them any more! At least, the boys offered me a trip to the wedding of one of them that winter which I was happy to accept.

Sometime after, Nick moved to Newmarket and trained from Julie Cecil’s Southgate Stables in the Hamilton Road after she retired. That’s now the base for Amy Murphy, Jack Quinlan’s principal employer, when her stable was much more jumping oriented. The best days were when Kalashnikov was winning the Betfair Hurdle and other nice races.

Amy herself has done well with mostly Flat runners in France and she is still toying with the idea of making the move to that country permanent to take advantage of the far better prizemoney on a day-to-day basis. A hurdles win there for now 10-year-old Kalashnikov at Auteuil in March brought a win prize of £23k and he was then sixth in another hurdle at Compiegne over 2m3f, won by Rosario Baron, who stepped up 10f and over to fences for yesterday’s triumph

Littmoden, unlike Amy, did go the whole hog; switching with wife Emma in early 2021 to a base at Moulins-les-Metz in Alliers, Central France, 377 km from Paris and just north-west of Lyon. With so many of France’s many racetracks within a few hours’ drive, that has proved an ideal location.

In 25 years’ training over jumps, his best single season’s prizemoney haul in the UK was £29K, although when he had the journalist/professional gambler Nigel Shields as the main owner in the yard, he was adept, with Nigel’s shrewd reading of the programme and form book, at getting many more wins, 80 being the peak in 2002.

In 2021 upon his move, the first season brought 14 wins from 78 runs and yielded €218k; last year 13/168 brought €268k and this year so far eight wins from 51 have added €259k so he is on course for a another much-increased tally. With almost £800k for his owners over just more than two years, this has been a transfer to savour. He operates from two yards, one based at Moulins racecourse housing around 15 horses – no new experience for him! – and the remainder are located nearby at a farm with an 800-metre gallop.

Yesterday’s fourth in the undoubted biggest race of the year over fences in France was one sort of pinnacle but when his career record as a foreign trainer in the country is remembered after he finally retires, Imperil’s success under Jack last month in the race that is known as the French Grand National, but is actually the Prix du President de la Republique, will stand tallest. Jack was along for that ride too, as Imperil beat 16 others in the race over just short of 3m.

While Littmoden was checking his France Galop account to see whether he had beaten last year’s tally, Willie Mullins finally got on the winner’s podium. His filly Gala Marceau, in the Kenny Alexander Honeysuckle colours, picked up her second Grade 1 win, having previously been the beneficiary of stablemate Lossiemouth’s traffic problems at the Dublin Racing Festival in February at Leopardstown.

Otherwise, she had been seeing Lossiemouth’s back end in a second place in the Triumph Hurdle and third at Punchestown, but she bolted up yesterday in the 4yo championship, Grande Course de Haies de Printemps (Spring), slaughtering the much-acclaimed domestic champion Losange Bleu by seven lengths.

Then again, you might say champion of what? Mullins had bought all the potential juvenile stars over the past 18 months and most of them, including Lossiemouth, are still on the upgrade. No doubt Willie and Howard Kirk will have had their notebooks out over the past few weeks, shopping for next season’s stars. And probably still trying to remember where they had heard the name Lucky One!

  • TS

Roving Reports: HQ, and Closer To Home

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My workload is starting to pick up as the season progresses, and now the evening racing has kicked in, even more so, writes David Massey. I shall tell you about the knock-on effect of that for me later, but let's start this episode at the beginning of the month, and two days at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket.

You'll notice only the two - we decided not to go on the Friday, as the Silver Ring, which is where we will be working both days, has next to no business that day. So we set off on the Saturday morning, and in this case the "we" is myself and the good lady, who has purloined a free ticket from a friend of hers. The forecast is mixed, with some showers due early afternoon but should pass through quickly. I trust the weather forecasts as much as I'd trust having my palm read to determine if it'll rain or not, so the wet weather gear is packed.

We arrive in plenty of time to get set up, and start betting. It is extremely slow to get going, with families still coming in as the first goes off. However, before that, the rain begins, and up go the bookmakers' umbrellas, along with a whole row of gazebos as families that have been a bit more forward-thinking take shelter.

The rain gets a bit heavier and behind us are some very dark clouds indeed. It soon becomes fairly clear that the wet stuff is set in. Worse, it appears to be coming in sideways. When rain falls directly on you from overhead it isn't so bad, as the umbrella does its job and keeps the majority of it off you. When it comes at you from the side, everything gets wet. You're not only trying to protect yourself but all the electrics - if your printer packs up as the damp gets in, that's game over - and a second pair of arms is called for.

We take very little on the first race, which is just as well as the jolly old favourite wins. The two joint-favourites are hand-in-hand over the line for a 1-2 in the next, too, but it hardly matters as the rain is absolutely killing the business.

It gets heavier still. One family in front of us packs up and goes home. Two races. That's all they have seen. I hope they feel they had value for money but, equally, the idea of going somewhere warmer and drier appeals to me right now, too. I fancy Probe a bit in the next and give it a cheer as it wins. At least I've got a few quid in my pocket after that, even if the firm haven't. I really don't need to tell you how the rest of the day went, as the rain did not go anywhere and it was quite literally a wash-out. After five races the water-resistant coat I'm wearing becomes resistant no longer, and my shirt underneath develops some big damp patches. I have to go back to the car and change. The deluge eventually stops as the last gets underway. The least said about this day, the better.

Sunday comes and is a different kettle of fish. The sun is shining to the point I need sunscreen, and there are families pouring in on what is traditionally a family day. The puppet show (the same noisy one as last year, but mercifully further away from us this year) is in full swing, the inflatables are proving popular and the ice-cream van has a queue all afternoon. I wouldn't mind a 20% share in that action today.

We get going an hour before the first. It isn't long before a bloke, who appears to have been on the early shift at Wetherspoons, comes up to me. I shall try and give you an idea of the conversation.

"Is this the first race?"

"Yes mate, it is."

(Long pause)

"And these are the runners?"

"That's right."

(Long pause)

"For the first?"

"Yes."

(Very long pause)

"Can I have a bet in the second race?"

"After this one you can, yes."

(Long pause)

"Is this the first race?"

And so on. He gets bored after ten minutes and goes to the bookmaker next door, and asks exactly the same questions. He looks absolutely out of it. I shout over to Tony, the bookie next door, that he can have him all afternoon if he likes! For some reason Tony doesn't want him. I cannot imagine why...

It is, as you'd expect for a Silver Ring, all small money we are taking but surprisingly we do plenty of business on debit cards, too. HMS President is a good result and so is Running Lion in the Pretty Polly, with Queen Of Fairies one of the best backed horses all afternoon. There are a lot of first-time punters, and as is always the case, one of them has backed the first three winners. I let her into the secret that "we always let you win first time" before she promptly gets the four-timer up with Via Sistina.

Now, there has been a distinct waft of weed in the air all afternoon (sadly, all too common on racecourses these days) and the lady with the drugs dog is in the area to try and find the source. It doesn't take the dog long to latch onto the scent and he's pulling her towards someone.

It's only matey boy who was such a pain in the backside before the first that she's after. Suddenly, that conversation makes a bit more sense.

Laughably, he's off and trying to get away from the dog. "STAY THERE!!" the handler bellows at him, and he knows the game is up. He sinks to his knees in despair, his face pleading for mercy. She's having none of it, and within a couple of minutes he's escorted off the premises by three security guards.

"Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio!!" goes the chant as he's marched off. Myself and Tony are killing ourselves laughing as he tries to get a roll-up in his mouth, only to miss, and isn't allowed to go back and fetch it. He seems more upset about that than the fact he's got to leave.

Anyway, back to the main event, and the 1000 Guineas. Business is solid and I take a £200 bet on the favourite, which stays in the satchel as Mawj proves too good. It's that good a result I'm sent for four Magnums from the ice-cream van, a bargain at fourteen quid. And they moan about the margins that they bet to in the ring.

Two races to go and, from nowhere, I have a punter that's having a few quid on. He has £200 on Hectic and £100 on Saxon King. Where's he been all afternoon? Has he got any mates that want a bet, I ask him with a smile?

He backs the winner and with the £600 he collects, has £300 back on Lion Of War. Sadly there's no good ending for him as it finishes a well-held fourth. I enquire as to whether there might be a second round of Magnums only to be told I was lucky to get the first one!

There are cars stuck in the car park on the way out, parts of it have just turned to mud after yesterday, and the tractor is going to be busy. Not for us though, and after getting paid it's out and we're on the way home.

The following Saturday, with so many meetings, saw me pick up a day for a firm I don't usually work for. Martyn Of Leicester (for it was he) had pitches at Ascot, Leicester, Nottingham and Warwick, a total of 16 in all, and that requires a lot of workers. I'd been asked a couple of weeks ago if I'd like a home fixture and so I worked the rails for him at Nottingham on what was their Ladies Day.

I often moan about how soulless Nottingham can be but there was no lack of atmosphere on Saturday; the place was buzzing with a great crowd up for an enjoyable day in the sun. All the other rails pitches had three workers on them, but I was on my own ("just do your best" says Martyn; I informed him I always do my best) and was busy from the word go. Most of the punters seem to know what they are doing, always helpful, and the first two results go our way. Come race four, though, and I have a problem.

The 10 horse, Showalong, wins easily but one bloke brings a losing slip up, saying I gave him £20 number 2 rather than £20 number 10. It's entirely possible I misheard him - a genuine mistake if so, particularly with a loud tannoy system - but I point out to him it's too late to do anything about it now. It clearly says on every ticket we print "please check your ticket" as I can change a bet beforehand, but he's not happy. I tell him I can get the ring inspector if he wishes but he's not listening, he's stormed off with a few choice words regarding myself getting a hearing test. The other 500-odd punters I deal with over seven races have no such problems. Please, ladies and gentlemen, check your tickets...

At the end of the day Martyn is delighted with the efforts I've made. He's had a winning day and he pays me well, with a good top-up on my wages. Better still, I only have a five-mile journey home. If only all tracks were five miles from my house. I could work twice a day, at least until the end of August...

- DM

Run Style in Smaller Field Handicaps

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It is time for me to revisit one of my favourite areas of research, namely the run style of horses, writes Dave Renham. In case you didn't know, run style research is often linked with draw analysis, as one can positively impact the other depending on the course, distance and field size in question. For example, if we look at data from 2014 to 2022 for Chester handicap sprints (up to 6f) with 10+ runners, we can see that the highest third of the draw are at a disadvantage in terms of taking the early lead:

 

 

Of the 92 early pace runners, just 11 were horses from the top third of the draw. Working out the percentage chance of which third of the draw is most likely to lead given those raw figures are as follows:

 

 

So a horse from the top third of the draw manages to take the early lead just under 12% of the time. This equates to less than one race in every eight. Compare that to horses from the lowest third of the draw who are able to lead in more than half of all races. Why this happens is simply due to the nature of the Chester track. Horses drawn low are drawn on the inside nearest the rail, and at both sprint trips, as we can see from the racecourse map, the turning nature of the track means that if a horse can grab the rail they will be going the shortest route for well over half the race.

Horses drawn wide have a very difficult task therefore to get to the early lead in front of a lower drawn rival, especially so when all jockeys (and trainers) know the value of a forward position.

 

 

So, when combining draw and run style at Chester over sprint trips with 10+ runners, it should be noted that a low drawn early leader is a horse that has a better chance of winning than any other draw / run style combination. These horses have won 26% of the time going back to 2014, whereas high drawn held up horses have won 0% of the time (0 wins from 135).

Bigger field sizes in handicap sprints almost always strengthen any draw bias – I rarely concern myself with the draw in races with small fields, and all my draw research / article writing is based on field sizes of at least eight or more. Hence in big field handicap sprints at certain courses I will use draw and run style biases in conjunction with each other to look for potential betting opportunities. The Chester stats shared above are a good illustration why I do this. At this juncture, it is worth mentioning the blindingly obvious: I don’t ignore other race reading factors, I just perceive draw and run style as often the most useful.

However, in recent years, the average number of runners in handicap races has been dropping. This means that fewer races provide the opportunity to use draw and run style biases in tandem.

To illustrate the fact that smaller field races are becoming more prevalent, take a look at the table below. This illustrates the percentage of races that have taken place within different field size brackets in 5f handicaps, comparing the period from 2015 to 2018 data with the past two full seasons (2021-2022).

 

 

As you can see the very smallest fields (2 to 6 runners) have seen an increase from 18.7% to 21.3%; there is also an increase in the 7 to 9 runner bracket. In 10 to 12 runner races there has been a small decrease, but in 13+ runner races we can see a bigger reduction.

A similar pattern can be seen when we delve into 6f handicap data over the same two time frames:

 

 

Races of 2 to 6 runners occurred roughly one in every nine contests between 2015 and 2018, but this has increased to roughly once in every six races in the past two seasons. This is not ideal as races with fewer runners gives me less opportunity to potentially factor in draw bias. However, we have to move with the times, so in the remainder of this article I will look in more detail at small field sprint handicaps, honing in specifically on run style.

From extensive past research I know, and regular readers of my articles will know, that early leaders in handicap sprints tend to have a decent advantage over other run styles. At some courses the bias is stronger than others, and as a general rule front runners have more of an edge over five furlongs than six. As I mentioned earlier my draw based articles use eight runners as a minimum, so it makes sense therefore to concentrate here on races with seven or fewer runners. I have analysed data from the past seven full seasons in the UK (2016 to 2022) looking solely at 5f and 6f handicaps.

To start with let's look at the run style win strike rate splits for all 5f handicaps with 7 or fewer runners. I am splitting the results in the same way that Geegeez does, into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These scores can be found in racecards, on the Pace Analyser tool and on the Query Tool on the site.

 

 

As we can see, early leaders / front runners (L) have a definite advantage over prominent racers who in turn have an advantage over horses that race in mid division or are held up. The A/E indices correlate too – A/E (Actual vs Expected) is an indicator of value where a figure of 1 or more is a positive:

 

 

Early leaders/front runners have an A/E index of 1.2 which is strong. Indeed, if your crystal ball for predicting the front runner in these 5f handicaps had been in tip top order, then backing all these runners would have yielded a profit of £346.62 to £1 level stakes giving returns of 22p for every £1 staked. That is at starting price, the figures to BSP are roughly double that.

This front running bias can also be seen when we look at the run style win strike rates for favourites:

 

 

Favourites that led early or raced prominently both made a profit to SP assuming we had been able to predict their running style pre-race. Mid-division favourites lost 11p in the £, with hold up jollies losing double that at 22p in the £.

A look at the official going now to see if that has any effect in small field 5f handicaps. Here are the stats for front runners / early leaders by going:

 

 

Other than on good to soft going the win strike rate has exceeded 20%. It seems that front runners have a decent edge regardless of ground conditions in small field five furlong sprint handicaps, with potential profits across the board and A/E indices of 1 or greater for all.

Jockey data for front runners in these races is a little limited (only four riders led early in 30 or more races). However, I do want to mention Jason Hart as he has won with 12 of his 30 front running rides (SR 40%). Hart's A/E index stands at an outstanding 2.48. On prominent runners he has a goodish record scoring just under 18%, but on mid div / hold up horses he managed just 1 win from 29 (SR 3.4%). Hart also has a very good record from the front in 5f handicaps with fields of eight or more runners (SR 29.9%), so he clearly is a good judge of pace when taking his horse to the front early. Hollie Doyle has a good record on these 5f early leaders, too, with 12 wins from 32 (SR 32.4%; A/E index 1.89).

Time to go up a furlong and look at the 6f handicap stats in races of 7 runners or less.

 

 

Front runners are once again clearly the most successful, but the other three groups are much more even than in their five furlong equivalents. Prominent racers are no longer in a clear second place over this extra furlong. Checking the A/E indices we see a correlation once again:

 

 

Early leaders / front runners hit an impressive 1.18, virtually the same as the 5f handicap figure of 1.20. The other three are fairly closely matched, as their win strike rates were.

Below is a bar chart showing the fate of 6f handicap favourites in small fields by run style.

 

 

The front running bias remains when focusing on favourites only, with over 40% of front running favourites winning, and they would have been profitable, too. The other three groups would have yielded loses.

A look at the going now. Over 5f the figures for front runners / early leaders were relatively even and positive across the board. What about at three-quarters of a mile?

 

 

Once more, we see positive figures across the board with strike rates all above 20% and A/E indices all above 1.10. It should be noted that for both five- and six-furlong handicaps the 'soft or heavy' A/E index was the highest as was the win strike rate. Maybe the front running bias is slightly stronger on soft and heavy ground but I would personally need more evidence to be confident of this.

A quick mention of jockeys: I noted earlier that Hollie Doyle had decent figures on 5f front runners, and she has a similar record over this extra furlong with 14 wins from 38 rides (SR 36.8%; A/E index 2.19). She must be a very good judge of pace in small field sprint handicaps.

Before I close, allow me to share some front running data for trainers. I have combined 5f and 6f handicaps to give us bigger samples (45 runs+ qualify, ordered by strike rate):

 

 

Some impressive figures here especially for Archie Watson, Kevin Ryan and Tom Dascombe. Indeed, 13 of Watson’s 25 winners were ridden by Hollie Doyle and this trainer/jockey combo scored 43% of the time with front runners.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

It is clear that even in smaller field handicaps over 5 or 6 furlongs, horses that grab the early lead have a definite advantage. Over 5f the bias is stronger, but the edge over six is still playable. The age old problem is being able to predict the early leader before the start of the race. From previous articles that I have written on this site, we have seen that the run style / pace scores found in the racecards are a definite help. Horses with the highest last four run pace totals do lead more often than those with lower pace totals.

Before I finish, here is an example of a six-runner handicap from earlier this year, so not a race within this article's sample data, where the last four pace totals seemed to indicate a very strong candidate for a horse that would lead early:

 

 

Bare Necessity had led in three of his previous four runs and had a four-point advantage over the second highest pace scoring horse, and he had the inside stall. Not only that, of the 20 runs of the other horses combined, just one of these races had seen a horse take the early lead. Now we can never be certain pre-race that a horse will lead, but this is about as good as it gets. As it turns out Bare Necessity did lead early and made all the running to win:

 

 

As I am sure you will agree, 28/1 winners are not to be sniffed at! It goes without saying that races do not always pan out perfectly like this, but ultimately if you could predict the front runner most of the time in such races, you would not really need to do much else: no need to check the form, whether the horse goes on the ground, how fit is the horse, etc, etc. Maybe we should have a challenge for members – to find a method to predict the highest percentage of front runners. I’m in!

- DR

Monday Musings: Of Rich Men and Trainer Fashion

/in /by

There are a lot of very rich people in the world. There are also many very talented racehorse trainers in the UK, in Ireland and France, writes Tony Stafford. Many wealthy individuals like to own racehorses, preferably blue-blooded ones.  As trainers enter their middle years, though, the tendency is for all but the legends like Sir Michael Stoute and John Gosden on the flat and Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls over jumps, to feel the draft from the younger, thrusting upstarts.

These can be talented, too, but as I often refer to in spring, there are some stark, indeed harsh, facts on this seemingly inevitable trend to be gleaned from the Horses In Training book which lists the strings of most stables.

I was shocked to see one entry upon receiving my volume later than expected because of the present state of Royal Mail. Colour coded and fully traceable stamps aren’t much use if it takes a week (more in this case) to get a little book a hundred or so miles.

Some surprised me by how many more horses they are now training compared to just a year or two ago. But the biggest shock was reserved for a trainer who won a nice handicap at the Craven meeting at Newmarket and then followed up with the same horse in the Victoria Cup at Ascot on Saturday.

The trainer, Amanda Perrett, the horse Rebel Territory, a 5yo home-bred gelding who streaked away at the end of the Ascot feature in the manner of a potential stakes horse. Home-bred is the key here, loyal but ageing owners that are so hard to replace.

I’d noticed that Amanda and husband Mark were listed as training only 19 horses at the famed Pulborough stables in West Sussex, base of her father Guy Harwood. He was the trainer of the peerless Dancing Brave and the equal in his day of Sir Michael and Sir Henry Cecil where Classic performers were being mentioned.

Amanda has held the licence at Pulborough since the late 1990’s and between 2000 and 2019 only twice did she and Mark send out fewer than 25 winners with a peak at 60 in the immediate aftermath of Guy’s heyday.

I canvassed several friends and racing experts, one of them who previously had horses there, asking how many they thought were in training now. Most estimates were around the 40 mark. “I wish it were,” Mark Perrett might have been saying when he told the media after the nice win on Saturday that “we only have 22 in, but we could always train a good horse when we got the opportunity, and we still can.” No question, Mark, and eight wins at 23% hit rate so far this year is a great start.

That intro was a long way round into coming to my main point. When you have a very good horse in your ownership and far from being one of the leading owners in the world, but you are part of a small, friendly syndicate, what do you do?

The history of the turf is littered with stories of people that did not take the opportunity presented to them when unexpectedly they got a good horse. Often, after refusing a nice offer, the horse in question does not fulfil expectations.

The fact that Isaac Shelby, winner of last month’s Greenham Stakes at Newbury in smart fashion, was owned by one of Sam Sangster’s Manton Thoroughbreds syndicates and trained by the pragmatic and vastly experienced Brian Meehan, ensured that when their opportunity to make a killing rather than agonise about it came, they agreed, albeit reluctantly, allowing the deal to go though.

“It was an agonising decision”, said Sangster, “but the chance for everyone to do well from the deal and at the same time welcome a potentially important new owner into Manton for Brian, made it the right choice. Everyone walked away with a smile on his face!”

It behoves a one-time journalist to try to delve beyond what little they want to reveal and find out rather what everyone else out there wants to know. But young Mr Sangster was not playing. Back in the bosom of his family, he continued: “Sorry Tone, there’s no way I can tell you how much Wathnan Racing paid for him.” “What was that? How many shareholders? Not sure.”

Knowing the present state of the market and the value of top racehorses, the number for a potential imminent Classic winner will be a minimum seven digits. “Not eight, I wish it was!” was as much as Sam could be pinned down to admit to. Neither would he say whether a contingency would have applied had Isaac Shelby won yesterday, or indeed if he picks up any other Group 1 race later in his career. Sorry Sam, I had to ask but I’ll leave you in peace, now!

It’s hard to remember all those years ago, but was it as difficult to break down Robert Sangster (Sam’s dad), and John Magnier’s, similar reticence when things like the multi-million Storm Bird or El Gran Senor stallion deals were having their problems? It’s hard to be sure through the mists of time – maybe I was just better placed in those days to pick up the correct rumours!

So, rather than work on trying to wheedle out of one of the future giants of the bloodstock business what he’d rather keep private – fair enough – instead I’ll pass on what I’ve found out about Wathnan Racing. This Qatari owning entity has been put together by Australian Ollie Tate, who can take full credit for setting up Godolphin’s operation Down Under in around 2002 when still in his mid-20’s.

He’s done plenty in the industry since, with his own operation for the past six years. Recently he was tasked by Qatari Abdullah Mana Al-Hajri to set up a racing operation back home. So rapidly has it developed that over the recently concluded season which ran from October to March, he was leading owner in Qatar with many winners of both thoroughbred and Arabian races.

The biggest acceleration for Wathnan came after an all-out assault on last year’s Newmarket Autumn Horses in Training sale. He bought nine mostly three-year-olds for a total of £1.75 million, an average of close to 200k each. Significant among them were Charlie Hills’ Inverness for 380k; Persian Royal, a 450k recruit from the Charlton stable and Hamiki, 260 grand from William Haggas.

He has enjoyed pleasing results at some of the more important meetings there. His local trainer is Alba De Mieulle and his go-to rider for the major days when international races were staged was Mickael Barzalona, who won several important races in his Technicolor silks.

It would not have escaped Mr Al-Hajri’s notice yesterday that just when Isaac Shelby looked home and hosed, ready to provide a Classic winner at the first time of asking, that along came the said M. Barzalona. Riding the 26/1 shot Marhaba Ya Sanafi, they got up right on the line by a short neck.

Another irony was that that the winning horse’s owner, Jaber Abdullah, a long-standing associate of Rabbah Racing in Dubai, had been selling off a good number of his surplus animals at the HIT part of the Guineas Breeze-Up sale at Newmarket just over a week ago.

Brian Meehan had been very confident of Isaac Shelby’s chance before the race and Sam said, “He was gutted!” They thought the gallop had been inadequate and having made all the running in the Greenham Stakes, there must have been the thought afterwards that it may have been better to have forced the pace again.

Meehan and the new owner’s representatives – the deal was brokered by Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock – will talk about the next target, but Royal Ascot, where a winner for Mr Al-Hajri would presumably be a major ambition, comes next this side of the Channel at least. As well as the St James’s Palace Stakes, which Meehan won with Most Improved in 2012, a sideways look might be glanced at the six-furlong Commonwealth Cup, in which the colt also holds an entry.

At this stage, though, the mile option looks more likely. Isaac Shelby certainly didn’t fail through lack of stamina yesterday and most bookmakers have him as one of the first four in the betting on the race.

I’ve spent many wonderful work mornings at Manton with Brian and Sam down the years. Their loyal relationship, which encouraged Sangster to pay a higher-than-usual 92,000gns for the son of 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder as a potential syndicate horse, stands out in an often more routine game between owners and trainers of musical chairs. But make no mistake, Brian Meehan, has long been an outstanding trainer who, like the Perrett’s, just needs the raw material and he’ll get the job done at any level.

When Mr Al-Haji finally makes it to Marlborough, I’m sure he will fall in love with the place as so many before him have over the centuries.

- TS

Dave Renham: A Window into My World of Racing Research, Part 2

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On January 25th of this year I wrote a detailed piece which I hope gave readers an understanding of how much work can go into researching horse racing ideas when some, or all, of your research requires a race by race approach, writes Dave Renham. This was the only method of research in the old days before computers and racing databases, and this is what I primarily did going back to the early 1990s.

Of course, nowadays 99% of my articles are sourced by solely using databases such as the Geegeez Query tool, the Geegeez Draw Analyser, etc. However, there have always been significant advantages to this old fashioned slow data collection method, primarily because you do get a proper ‘feel’ and understanding for the data you are collating. You can see patterns that might be missed if simply pressing a button and just getting the raw stats breakdown. The downside is obviously the time it takes to go through race by race.

In my first piece I looked at a specific group of races – these were all-weather handicap races run around a bend with eight runners, over the sprint trips of 5f and 6f. I looked at data for four seasons which equated to 190 races. I chose the sprints simply because I have always been a fan of handicap sprints and most of my bets occur in such races. I looked at the effect of the draw, running style/pace data, market factors and Peter May speed ratings. The key findings from this research were:

  1. As a general rule, on turning sprint tracks a lower draw is preferable due to its position closest to the inside rail;
  1. The top three in the betting combined broke even to BSP;
  1. Horses with higher Geegeez pace/running style total scores based on their last four runs win more often than those with lower totals;
  1. Horses from the top three of the speed ratings scored much more often than those fourth to eighth, although profits/losses between the two groups were similar.

 

You can review that article here.

 

So what have I looked at this time? Well, I've started with a similar group of races to before, only this time I have focused on UK 5f handicaps only, on the turf. I did exclude 2yo nursery handicaps as such races have more limited past data. I expanded the field size to include races between 8 and 11 runners, while keeping the same four year time frame (2019 to 2022). This gave me a much larger number of races to research – just under 540 in fact. With a greater data set to examine I hoped that it may lead to some angles that we can use to our advantage in the future.

At this point I should add that there was a small tweak in terms of what I focused on compared with the original article. I did not examine the draw this time, because of the different nature of the various five-furlong course constitutions. There are some straight 5f tracks, some round ones, and also there can be different stall positioning on some straight tracks. All this means there is no uniformity so it made sense to focus on other things. Hence, for this research I not only collated the Peter May ratings again, but I also added the Topspeed speed ratings as well; and I looked at the Geegeez pace/running style data from the past four races, as I did last time. Market rank was also once again looked at.

Now, I could not have done this much research by simply pulling out each race result, then writing each horse, course, finishing position etc into a spreadsheet. That would have meant manually typing in 16 distinct columns of data for 4953 rows of individual runners. I mean, I like my research, but 79,248 cells to type a number or word into is too much even for me! I’m all for finding racing angles that others don’t, but personally typing numbers and words into nearly 80,000 cells would be a tad crazy!!

Instead, I used two databases, one being the Geegeez Query Tool, in order to get most of the columns into the spreadsheet far more speedily. This gave me my starting point as 12 of the 16 columns were done, but there were four missing that I needed to add individually - these being the specific run style (pace) data, market rank and both sets of Speed Rating data. Now market rank was relatively ‘easy’ to add using some excel tricks, but it did leave me the run style (pace) data and speed rating positions to add manually.

As you can imagine, manually adding run style and speed ratings data race by race for over 500 races took some time – a lot of man hours. Thus, for both sets of speed ratings and the pace/run style scores, I decided to add the top three ‘rated’ horses only to the spreadsheet. If I had manually added every single ranking position to those columns the research would have taken twice as long, maybe longer.

Having set the scene it’s almost time to dig down and share what I found, but first I want to show you where you can find the relevant data on Geegeez.

In terms of speed ratings you can go to the ‘CARD’ tab on a specific race and you will see the Topspeed figure for each runner (column headed TS) and the Peter May Rating (column headed SR). The 2022 race from Chester (below) was one of the races in the 537 race sample:

 

 

Once I scrolled to this page I could sort the columns to display the horses that were in the top three of each rating column (e.g. the highest three figures). In the example above I have ordered the Peter May figures (highest at the top). We can see that Le Beau Garcon had the highest speed fig (81), So Smart had the second highest (67) with Riversway third (65). Once a race was sorted like this I labelled the three horses 1, 2, 3 on my spreadsheet. I then sorted the Topspeed ratings and repeated the process.

For the run style / pace data I wanted to find the top three horses in terms of their pre-race Geegeez run style/pace total from their previous four runs. To find what I needed I clicked on a race result, and once the result came up I then clicked on the ‘PACE’ tab. From there I ordered them with highest totals first – an example of what I mean is shown below from a 5f handicap at Catterick in 2021:

 

 

Here, Autumn Flight was top ‘pace’ rated with 15, Major Jumbo second on 14 and Militia third on 13 and, as with the speed ratings, I labelled the three horses 1, 2, 3 on my spreadsheet. Now, occasionally you will see a horse that had a ‘U’ rather than a number in one of the last four race columns. This occurs occasionally when it is unclear from the in-running comments what pace number should be assigned to that specific run. For these horses I double checked different sources, or even watched the start of the relevant race so that I could add the right figure. I would then recalculate those specific horses’ total.

It should also be stressed that there are times when you get horses with identical four race pace totals, which means it is potentially difficult to get an exact ‘top three’. In the event of tied four race totals, I look at the most recent race first (LR column) and compared the horses who have tied. The horse with the highest figure in that first column would take priority. If the scores are the same for the LR, I would then compare the next column (2LR) and keep going until one out scored the other. Here is an example of such a case:

 

 

This Thirsk race saw three horses tie for second with 12 pace points each. However, if we compare the LR column we see Spanish Angel scored 4, Boudica Bay 3 and Dandy Spirit 1. For this race Spanish Angel was placed second behind Birkenhead, and Boudica Bay third in terms of their run style/pace position.

OK, it is time to share my findings...

 

Topspeed Ratings

Starting with the Racing Post Topspeed figures, and comparing win strike rates.

 

 

In truth, it was a little disappointing to see a relatively even split. OK, the 4th+ speed rated horses did have the lowest strike rate, but I had expected / hoped their strike rate figure would have been lower. Not only that, the 4th+ rated horses actually turned a very small profit to BSP.

 

Peter May Ratings

Let us now look at the performance of the Peter May (SR) Ratings – again comparing the top rated, 2nd rated, 3rd rated and combining those rated 4th or lower:

 

 

This is a more encouraging picture – in terms of win success at least. There is a clear drop off when we look at the horses with a speed rating position of 4th or lower. In terms of returns, the 2nd top rated horse made a profit of around 9p in the £ to BSP if backing every single one ‘blind’.

 

BSP Market Rank

Let's look at market rank now. I was able to rank all horses, not just the top three and here are the strike rate splits:

 

 

We can see a familiar sliding scale here: favourites winning close to 30% of the time, whereas outsiders ranked 6th or lower in the betting market combined to score just under 5.5% of the time. Favourites would have almost broken even with a loss to BSP of just 2p in the £; while second favourites got closer still, losing just a penny in the £.

 

Run style / pace

This is my favourite area of research, especially in sprints, because in general, there is a strong front-running bias in shorter distance handicaps such as these. Therefore I was hoping for some relatively positive stats. Here is the breakdown for the top three Geegeez pace/run style rated horses, as well as the combined results for horses rated 4th or lower:

 

 

In general these figures are encouraging, especially when we look at the profit/loss column. The top three rated horses have combined to be far better value than those rated 4th or lower. The strike rates are much closer, although the top rated runners have secured the highest win rate.

When we dig a bit deeper, it is worth noting that the profit and loss figures are not skewed due to the higher rated pace horses having more big-priced winners. In fact, if comparing the odds of the ten highest priced winners from the top rated pace group against the fourth or lower group, we see the following:

 

 

Clearly, the lower rated pace / run style runners have had bigger priced winners overall. The average BSP price for these ten runners for 4th+ rated is 51.68; for the top rated it is 33.45.

I have mentioned numerous times in previous articles how important it is to look deeper into profit and loss figures. You need to make sure the bottom line is not giving a false impression.

I want next to look at a couple of angles concentrating solely on the top rated pace/run style runners. Firstly a look at the yearly breakdown:

 

 

It is very promising to see that three of the four years turned a profit to BSP. The strike rate in 2019 was a fair bit lower, but when horses win on average 12.9% of the time, it is not unusual to see a 10% strike rate over 150 races.

Now I am splitting the top rated pace/run style results by number of race runners:

 

 

Obviously, ignore the diminishing strike rates as field size grows: that is to be expected as it is easier to beat seven rivals in an 8 runner race than it is to beat ten rivals in an 11 runner race. Again, three of the four sections have produced positive returns and the other broke even.

The final area I wanted to look at was combining ratings with the Geegeez pace/run style ratings. So, firstly, how did horses do if they were in the top three of all three? That is, they were one of the three highest Topspeed ratings, one of the top three in the Peter May ratings and one of the top three in the four-race Geegeez pace/run style totals. Well, 316 horses qualified, of which 51 won (SR 16.1%) showing a small profit of £26.96 (ROI +8.5%). This was encouraging.

Let me compare these results to horses that were not in the top three of any of the Topspeed, Peter May and pace ratings. There were of course far more qualifiers – 1775 to be precise. 161 of these won, equating to strike rate of 9.1%, which is quite a difference. However, those lower-rated qualifiers made a slightly larger absolute profit of £50.09, but with a smaller ROI of just 2.8%.

This feels positive overall, especially the strike rate difference (16.1% versus 9.1%). While both groups turned a small profit, when I again dug deeper and looked into the biggest winning prices for each group, we can see the variance in their five highest winning priced runners:

 

 

Looking at this clearly demonstrates that horses that are rated in the top three positions of all three - Topspeed, Peter May and Pace ratings - are far better value - and less susceptible to skewing - than horses that lie 4th rated or worse in all three of the ratings.

Before I finish, I guess you may be wondering how horses that were top rated in all three ratings got on? Well, the problem here is number of qualifiers – there were only 24 runners that ticked all boxes over this four year period. Having said that 10 did win (SR 41.7%) for a BSP profit of £34.44 (ROI +143.50). Now whether these runners will continue to perform as well in the future is difficult to say as 24 runners is such a small sample. However, I personally will be keeping an eye for them. [Stop press: since researching this piece, Rajmeister was a 10/3 winner for this angle on the 22nd April]

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Well, this has been quite a journey for me and a long one at that. Having to go through race by race is hard work, but ultimately I think the research uncovered some interesting findings. Not only that, it has inspired me to do some more digging around these themes, albeit it will no doubt be a rather slow excavation!

Before I finish I should mention that all BSP profits and losses have taken a 5% commission into account, as that gives the truest reflection of real life returns using that medium. Many punters are now paying only 2% commission, so if that's you, you can mark up the profits published above accordingly.

I hope you have enjoyed this journey and I hope it shows the usefulness/importance of some of the Geegeez data you can get from each racecard. I’ll be back next week looking at run style in smaller field handicaps. Until then...

- DR

Monday Musings: You Say Potayto

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You say tomayto, I say tomahto. You say potayto, I say potahto, as the George and Ira Gershwin 1937 song Let’s Call the Whole Thing Off goes, illustrating the spoken differences in the American and British versions of the English language, writes Tony Stafford.

You say Mage, I say Mawj. Two very similar four-letter words, beginning with MA that identify respectively the surprise winners of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday night and the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket yesterday on a Coronation weekend of great significance for the United Kingdom.

There were 20 horses in the Run for the Roses and 18 for the fillies’ mile classic and each time the winner was the only one with four letters in its name. In the entire history of the ten furlongs around the Louisville circuit, since its inception in 1875, only once, in 1892 when Azra won, has such an economically framed name adorned the winner. In that context, the win of Zeb, the only winner with three letters to his name exactly 100 years ago is a statistical disappointment, for someone who bothers with such trifles anyway.

We only need go back three years to Love’s winning the fillies’ race on the way to a sublime year of achievement for Aidan and the Coolmore boys to find another four-letter name. In the Classic’s early years, the more demanding breeders’ young horses were never given names until they won, simply regarded as the something colt or the something else filly. Many four-letter and mostly mundane names adorn the dusty pages of the 1000 Guineas winner register during the 19th Century.

At Churchill Downs on Saturday, it took a decision on the morning of the race by the veterinary examining committee to bar the Todd Pletcher trained Forte. The morning line favourite, winner of his last five, including a strong-running victory at 3/5 in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, was ruled out on a soundness issue.

He was clearly the one to beat, so it was music to the ears of connections of Mage, twice behind Forte in his last two runs, but getting nearer and only overtaken in the last 100 yards at Gulfstream.

Now as a 15/1 shot and with veteran Javier Castellano on board, he came through to win the first leg of the 2023 Triple Crown at the 16th time of asking for the jockey. The colt came down the outside beating Two Phil’s by a length with Angel of Empire, who inherited favouritism, third. Trainer Gustavo Delgado would not have been one of the more likely handlers of a Derby winner in the line-up. His previous best win was in the G1 Test Stakes at Saratoga seven years ago, though he did also saddles the 2020 winner of the G1 Clark Handicap on this track.

What Mage did over there, Mawj did here and when I saw the blue Godolphin number one colours fighting it out with the favourite Tahiyra from some way out and then going well clear with her into the Dip and up to the finish, instinctively I briefly thought, another for Charlie Appleby.

Then the double realisation hit home. No, it’s Saeed and Oisin and then instantly, “and she’s going to win”.

The first conclusion was these are two very high-class fillies. Dermot Weld had only ever previously run one filly in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, some statistic considering he’s been at the forefront of international training for half a century.

But then Saeed bin Suroor, the most modest, polite and uncomplaining man you will ever encounter, has been at it a while too, associated firmly with Godolphin from its inception. The native of Dubai, where his first career was as a policeman, has never shown any resentment at being now the undoubted second trainer behind Charlie Appleby for Sheikh Mohammed’s team.

He said that Appleby worked under him for a long time and while conceding the big-race wins may not be so plentiful nowadays, this was his third 1000 Guineas, 20 years on from the second. It was also unique in that no filly campaigned in the winter in Dubai before running in this Classic had ever won it.

She had been a good second at Royal Ascot last year to yesterday’s second favourite Meditate but that filly disappointed in much the same way as the two Aidan O’Brien/Coolmore colts, first and third favourites Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear, had on Saturday.

Before the race, Dermot Weld was ruing the fact that he probably needed another two weeks to have Tahiyra to his entire satisfaction. She will have the opportunity to take her revenge on Mawj – who may also improve in the interim, of course – at the Curragh and it’s hard to see anything else from this race at least, troubling either.

For Oisin Murphy, who missed the whole of last season in the aftermath of his various breaches of the rules in relation to Covid and alcohol, this was a joyous moment. Nobody doubts his talent. Now it’s up to him to steer clear of temptation. Non-riders might think that nothing could be more addictive for a jockey than winning big races. Maybe it’s not always that straightforward, such are the pressures.

This was his 52nd success of the year in the UK and 24 different trainers have contributed to the score which is running at more than 20% wins to rides. The Guineas win also took him past the £1 million prizemoney mark. If Murphy can stay focused, William Buick will indeed have a rival to fear as the former three-time winner will have designs on wresting the crown back from last year’s debut champion.

Strangely, this was Oisin’s first ride of the season in the UK for Saeed, although in the years 2019 to 2021 he rode 70 first past the winning line for bin Suroor. Saeed said in his post-race interview on TV that he has now won 192 Group 1 races. (Hope I heard correctly!). Few can match that.

Of course, on the day of the Coronation, racing’s enduring monarch of the saddle, Senor L Dettori chose one of the most exciting days I can remember on the Rowley Mile for years, for all that it rained all day, to steal another show.

The flood of racegoers and their cars arriving from early on the day was reminiscent of the 70’s and 80’s. Three of the mile colts’ Classics in the 30-odd years since Frankie came across from Sardinia had fallen to him. Two of those – Mark Of Esteem and Island Sands – of course were for bin Suroor while he was the undisputed number one rider for Godolphin for so many years.

Having announced this to be his final year in the saddle, with Chaldean earmarked for his final 2000 Guineas mount, it was a complete shock when he was jettisoned from the colt’s saddle on exiting the stalls as they set off as an odds-on shot for the Greenham Stakes two weeks earlier. That the colt came through unscathed, having accompanied Isaac Shelby and the rest up the straight mile without a rider, was a cause for relief for the Andrew Balding team, and his preparation for last Saturday clearly hadn’t been affected.

With the well-fancied Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear not performing to expectations on the other side of the track – their normal transport routine, flying in on the morning of the race having been ruled out, was Aidan’s suggestion – here was Chaldean on the far side, fulfilling all that Dewhurst-winning promise with a smooth success in the Juddmonte colours.

I was delighted to be there for all the frustration of an awful day of drenching rain and with the race being run on such un-Newmarket like ground. Dettori, remarkably, but obviously, is as good a jockey as he ever was.

It’s a long time since, with many of his achievements in his future, I was asked to ghost-write a mini autobiography entitled A Year in the Life by Frankie. I’ve told before how the book was already in print in the days when computerisation didn’t exist. The pages were set if not in stone, in hot metal.

So, what does Dettori do with weeks to come before publication and publicity? Just ride seven out of seven at Ascot! An extra chapter was hurriedly added and placed at the front of the book– I can’t remember if he contributed anything to it – I think he was far too busy celebrating. No doubt he was in similar euphoria after Saturday.

When you write about someone in that way, taking such a long time gathering the material, inevitably you never lose that proprietary interest. I know that every big win in the 27 years since from Frankie has brought if not a warm glow exactly, certainly a little smile.

The book was written all those years ago when Frankie was still engaged to Catherine. Now with six children, and with three jockeys’ championships and 22 English Classics behind him, he’s still the same engaging, garrulous chap he always has been. Basically, a Peter Pan figure, the 52-year-old apprentice! How many more big ones await him? That he can still be around with Buick, Oisin and Ryan Moore all in their prime makes the prospect of the 2023 flat-race season, his last round-up, a vintage one.

- TS

Two-Year-Old Runners on 2nd Start: Part 2

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This is the second of two articles looking at two-year-old runners (2yos) on their second career starts. The first piece looked at last time out (LTO) performance, LTO course, market factors, sires, damsires and some jockey stats. You can read that here. This one focuses exclusively on trainer data. I have collated stats from UK flat racing for six full years, from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf and all weather data. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP for short), with commission of 5% taken into account.

Overall 2yo second run stats for trainers

I am going to start with a full table with all trainers who have had at least 100 two-year old second starters in the past six seasons. I have ordered the trainers by win strike rate:

 

* C Johnston in 2023; ** Jack Channon in 2023

 

A familiar face heads the list – Charlie Appleby. His 37%-plus strike rate is remarkable but, despite that whopping win percentage, he has failed to make it into blind profit. This is, naturally, because many of his runners start at short prices. Seven other trainers have secured strike rates of 20% or higher with juvenile runners making their second career starts, which again is extremely noteworthy. Just one of these seven in profit though: Hugo Palmer.

In terms of A/E indices Messrs. Palmer, Dods, Dalgleish, Osborne and Tinkler are above the magic 1.00, although Nigel Tinkler, with a strike rate of under 5%, is not a trainer for the faint of heart to follow.

At this juncture it makes sense to compare the performance of trainers' 2yo debut runners with their 2yos having a second run. In the following table I have broken this down by strike rates and A/E indices for each trainer. I have ordered them by trainers who have seen the most improvement in strike rate from first to second start:

 

 

In the final column I have divided the second run win percentage by the debut one to give us a type of Impact Value. I call it a Comparison Strike Rate (CSR) and I also used this idea in the previous article when comparing sire stats. The higher this figure the more improvement the runners show on their second run compared to their debut. I have highlighted any CSR figure of 2.00 or more in green as these are much higher than the average. The CSR figure to bear in mind is 1.52. This is the average CSR figure when looking at the strike rate comparison for second starters compared with debutants; that is, on average a two-year-old is 1.52 times more likely to win on its second start compared with its debut (7.96% vs 12.08% in case you were curious).

Ed Dunlop has a very high CSR figure but that is because his debut runners having won less than 0.6% of the time. His second starters still only win on average once in every 15 or 16 races. Ed Walker, Michael Dods, William Haggas, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Hills, Sir Michael Stoute and Andrew Balding are the group of trainers who I would be expecting to see excellent improvement between first and second runs. Some of their runners should offer us decent value.

Brian Meehan is one specific trainer whose second starters look poor value, especially when comparing the stats to his debut runners. With debutants his A/E index stands at an impressive 1.36, for second starters this drops markedly to 0.76. Eve Johnson Houghton has a similar slide (1.38 to 0.79) which is also worth noting. Ths is essentially saying that Brian and Eve have their two-year-olds ready to fire on day one, which in itself is well worth noting.

 

Distance breakdown: trainer performance in 5f and 6f races

I want to split the trainer data by distance now and for this piece I am combining the sprint distances of 5 and 6f, and then will be looking at races of 7f or further. This is because it gives better sized data sets. So, to start, here are the win strike rates for trainers who have had at least 75 two-year-old second starters over 5f / 6f. I have split the data into two graphs – the first with strike rates of 16% or more:

 

 

William Haggas stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of win record. He also has an A/E index in excess of 1.00 (1.09), as do three others - Michael Dods (1.24), Andrew Balding (1.15) and Clive Cox (1.02). For the record these three have made decent profits to BSP, while Haggas would have just about broken even. Of the remaining trainers, all made a loss bar Tom Dascombe, who made a small profit. Dascombe will be interesting to follow this year in his second season after the move from Cheshire to Lambourn and without the support of Chasemore Farm.

Now for those with strike rates under 16%:

 

 

There are still some relatively decent strike rates here as well, on the left-hand part of the graph at least, although only Keith Dalgleish managed a BSP profit. No trainer in this group had an A/E index of 1.00 or more and, for the record, Richard Hughes and Tim Easterby had the poorest A/E indices (0.64 and 0.54 respectively) with both making significant losses.

 

Distance breakdown: trainer performance in races of 7f or further

There are 10 trainers who have secured a strike rate of 16% or more in these longer distance races:

 

 

Charlie Appleby strikes at a preposterous close to 40% and backing his runners would have seen you break even to BSP. Here are these trainers' A/E indices which give us a better indication of overall value:

 

 

Hugo Palmer, Archie Watson and the Charlton stable have figures above 1.00 and they are trainers who, over 7f or more, I think we should keep on the right side (more often than not).

At the other end of the scale, these are the trainers with lower strike rates over 7f+. As there are quite a few I’ve put their results in tabular form rather than in a graph.

 

 

Andrew Balding’s bottom line looks impressive but he had a 232.24 BSP winner in 2020 which accounts for most of his profit. Having said that, even without that outlier, Balding still made a positive return. The three trainers at the bottom – Richard Fahey, Sir Mark Prescott and Tim Easterby - are trainers I think should be swerved with 2yo runners at 7f or beyond when making their second start.

Before moving on there are a few points worth making.

Firstly, Clive Cox has a vastly contrasting distance record: over sprint distances his second starter strike rate is 21.9%, over 7f+ it is just 8.8%. A/E indices also have a chasm between them at 1.02 vs 0.60.

Secondly, Richard Fahey has a similar bent to his stats with much better sprint results: strike rates of 15.6% compared to 6.9%; A/E indices of 0.88 to 0.59.

And third, Roger Varian’s stats are somewhat remarkable from the point of view that his strike rate has been exactly 20% for both distance groups and his A/E indices are almost identical, too, at 0.67 and 0.68.

 

Market breakdown: trainer performance with top three in the betting

As we know, profit figures can be easily skewed by big priced winners. Hence it makes sense to analyse trainer data where it is a more level playing field – or at least where we can perform a fair price comparison. Here are the data for trainers when their 2yo second starters have figured in the top three of the betting. A minimum of 75 runs has been used as the cut-off point:

 

 

It seems right that Charlie Appleby hits a small profit considering his overall figures.

Any trainer with an A/E index of 0.90 or more I feel can be considered much more a positive than negative when it comes to their more fancied runners. Ten trainers have achieved that, of which six have edged into profit. These are Charlie Appleby, the Johnston yard, Archie Watson, Team Crisford, Hugo Palmer and Tom Dascombe. The other four - William Haggas, Charlie Hills, Clive Cox and Richard Fahey - made losses and only Cox had losses of worse than 7 pence in the £.

On the other side of the coin, Saeed bin Suroor’s record is surprisingly poor with qualifiers from the top three in the betting – a win rate of roughly one in six, but losses close to 30p in the £ and a very poor A/E index of 0.56.

So far in this article I have looked at more general trainer stats – but now I want to focus in on a few specific trainers starting, not surprisingly, with Charlie Appleby.

 

Individual Trainers with Second Start Two-Year-Olds

Charlie Appleby

We have seen already that Charlie Appleby has an impressive overall strike rate, but this does not mean he is a money making machine for punters. If only it was that simple! Strike rate is important but betting is essentially about getting a value price - having 50% of winners at 10/11 keeps you in the game but loses you money, whereas 15% of winners at 8/1 means long losing runs but wins you money. Such is the challenge for us punters: winners, or profit?

From my personal experience it is harder to find value with short prices and this is why one cannot just blindly back Appleby runners, or indeed almost any other short-priced 'no brainer' angle. This is perhaps neatly illustrated when we breakdown Appleby’s profit with horses from the top three in the betting. As the previous table showed, these runners did make a small 5p in the £ profit for him. However, all the profits came from horses second and third in the betting. These combined to produce returns of just under 26p in the £, whereas favourites lost just over 4p in the £.

I have dug deeper into the Appleby stats and one angle that does stand out is jockey based. I touched upon jockeys in the first of these articles when I compared second starters that were ridden by the same jockey who had ridden them on debut, with those who have seen their jockey change. As a general rule I found that horses ridden by the same jockey outperformed those which were not. For Appleby this bias is pronounced as the table shows:

 

 

William Buick has been responsible for 72 of these 103 ‘same jockey’ runners. His strike rate was 45.8% and backing these runners would have returned you £16.06 (ROI +22.3%). James Doyle has had an even better strike rate albeit from a much smaller group of runners. He had a success rate of 52.2% (12 win from 23) for returns of 19p in the £. Hence any 2yo second starter from the Appleby yard who is ridden for the second time by either Buick or Doyle is a horse that potentially offers some value.

We have seen good consistency before with Appleby runners and his second starters seem no exception. They have proved versatile by going / ground conditions as the graph below shows:

 

 

All the strike rates are above 30%; it should be noted that the highest one (tapeta) is from a small sample (7 wins from 15) so this may be artificially high.

Here are some additional Charlie Appleby stats, both positive and negative:

  1. Appleby 2yo debut winners have a relatively modest record when running for the second time. They have backed up this win just 14 times from 60 (SR 23.3%) for a loss of £25.02 (ROI -41.7%).
  1. The value in terms of debut performance has come from horses that finished 5th or worse on debut. On second starts Appleby has secured 19 winners with these runners from 58 (SR 32.8%) for a profit of £10.59 (ROI +18.3%).
  1. At the highest level (Class 1 races) Appleby's runners on second start have won just 7 from 41 (SR 17.1%) for a loss of £18.07 (ROI -44.1%).
  1. Second time runners returning to the course where they debuted have done well, scoring nearly 50% of the time. 16 wins from 33 (SR 48.5%) have created a BSP profit of £17.36 (ROI 52.6%).
  1. Appleby has done well when sending second starting 2yos to Newmarket. He has been rewarded with 24 wins from 53 (SR 45.3%) for a healthy profit of £19.48 (ROI +36.8%).

 

Richard Hannon

I have chosen Richard Hannon next as he has had the biggest number of second starters in the past six seasons.

The eagle eyed of you would have seen already that his record in sprint events is better than 7f+ races; specifically, he has a strike rate of 17.3% for sprints compared to 10.6% for longer races. Here are some other Hannon second starter stats I would like to share.

  1. Just like Appleby, having the same jockey on board that rode the horse on debut has been a plus. These horses have won 37 of their 224 starts (SR 16.5%) for a small profit of £11.29 (ROI of 5.0%); the record of horses with new / different jockeys is 53 wins from 450 (SR 11.8%) for a loss of £73.50 (ROI -16.3%).
  1. 2yos returning to the track within two weeks of their debut have a surprisingly good record. 40 have won from 244 (SR 16.4%) for a healthy profit of £90.27 (ROI +37.0%). Amazingly, Hannon has made a profit with these runners in five of the six years which shows good consistency.
  1. Horses that finished first or second on debut have a good record with 26.1% of them winning on their second starts (35 wins from 135) for a profit of £40.06 (ROI +29.9%).
  1. Hannon has scored nearly 41% of the time with second time starter favourites, making the smallest of profits, £1.93 (ROI 1.8%).

 

Richard Fahey

Another Richard and another trainer who has had a decent number of runners. His overall strike rate with second starters stands at just under 13% and I have found a handful of useful stats – positive, negative and neutral.

  1. Clear favourites for Fahey have secured 33 wins from 73 2yo second starters (SR 45.2%) for a profit of £11.68 (ROI +16.0%).
  1. 2yos that won on debut have proved profitable on their second starts thanks to a strike rate of 17.9% producing returns of 56p in the £.
  1. Second starters who race at Beverley have scored 26.5% of the time (13 wins from 49) for a break even scenario.
  1. Having the same jockey on board as on debut has once again seen a big difference in performance, just as we saw with Appleby and Hannon runners. Fahey horses retaining the same jockey for the second run have won 19.8% of races (A/E index 1.06); those horses whose jockey has changed have won just 8.4% of their races (A/E index 0.60).
  1. Second starters racing on all weather tracks have a poor record with only 7 wins from 104 (SR 6.7%). Losses have been steep at 54p lost for every £1 staked.
  1. 2yos that have had their second start in September or later in the year look worth avoiding. Just 11 wins from 153 (SR 7.2%) for a loss of £67.11 (ROI -43.9%). For the record, if the horse was not favourite or second favourite Fahey saw just 3 wins from 121 runners.

 

Other trainers

Here are some individual stats that I have unearthed related to other trainers:

  1. Andrew Balding has an excellent record with horses that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd on debut. On their second starts they have gone onto win 25 times from 89 (SR 28.1%) for a profit of £31.68 (ROI +35.6%). Balding has secured profits with these runners in four of the six years.
  1. Kevin Ryan has reverse stats compared to Balding. Horses that finished in the first three on debut would have lost a whopping 46p in the £ if backed blindly on second start.
  1. Sir Mark Prescott has sent 99 2yo second starters to all weather tracks, and only one has managed to win.
  1. Tim Easterby has a dreadful record with horses running again within two weeks of their debut, with just one win from 104 runners.
  1. William Haggas has a good record with 2yos that have dropped in class since their debut. He has secured a 34.2% strike rate thanks to 26 winners from 76. These runners have returned a profit of £9.84 (ROI +12.9%).
  1. Karl Burke is another trainer that does particularly well when retaining the same jockey who rode on debut – 36 wins from 150 rides (SR 24%) for a profit of £45.34 (ROI +30.2%).

 

MAIN TAKEAWAYS

Below is a summary of my main takeaways from this article; but there may be stats above that are far more important to you, so keep that in mind!

  1. Ed Walker, Michael Dods, William Haggas, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Hills, Sir Michael Stoute and Andrew Balding all enjoy much higher strike rates on second starts compared to debut runs.
  1. Brian Meehan and Eve Johnson Houghton are two trainers whose second starting 2yos offer relatively poor value, especially when comparing second runs to debuts.
  1. William Haggas, Michael Dods, Andrew Balding and Clive Cox have good records with 2yo second runs in 5-6f races. In contrast, Tim Easterby looks a trainer to avoid.
  1. Hugo Palmer, Archie Watson and the Charlton stable do well in races of 7f or more with their second starters.
  1. Charlie Appleby, the Johnston stable, Archie Watson, the Crisford stable, Hugo Palmer and Tom Dascombe have good records with second starters when in the top three in the betting. Saeed bin Suroor has a particularly poor record with these fancied runners.
  1. Charlie Appleby runners have a very good record when the same jockey who rode on debut rides on the second start. In particular, look out for William Buick and James Doyle. Appleby also does well with horses that finished out of the first four on debut, as well as horses that ran at Newmarket.
  1. Richard Hannon does well with horses that return to the track within two weeks of their debut. He also does well with debutants that won or finished second on debut.
  1. Richard Fahey second starters that start clear favourite have a strong record. On the negative side, avoid second starters if racing on the all weather, or if racing after August.

 

There is a fair bit to get your teeth into in this article and hopefully it has started to point you in the right direction, as well as steering away from some treacherous paths. For those readers who do not generally bet in 2yo races, I hope this, and the previous three articles, may have changed your mind.

- DR

Monday Musings: Route To Gold

/in /by

The problem with the international and even domestic racing programme is that when you get older, and appreciably so in my case, it spins ever faster, writes Tony Stafford.

It seems it was only a few months ago that I was looking back at a just concluded UK jumps season and saying that by the time of my next offering, 40 per cent of the UK Classic races will have come and gone. This time round we’ll have had a Coronation too – the second in my lifetime!

Thank goodness we had the Craven meeting to wean us back to flat racing of young, well-bred, and beautifully prepared horses, just in time for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday when Messrs O’Brien Sr., Balding, Appleby, C., and the Gosdens, father and son, will move back into focus.

Saturday at Sandown was a joyous event in many ways with top-class performances through the card, staged on the first spring-like afternoon of the year it seemed. Even if Paul Nicholls was unable to conjure the earnings needed to break the UK trainers’ record for a season, such as Kitty’s Light, giving another boost for Christian Williams as his family tries to cope with his daughter’s illness, and Jonbon, taking another sure upward step as a two-mile chaser with Nicky Henderson, enthused the massive crowd.

It was less of a cliff-hanger though in the normal way of a Nicholls/Martin Pipe or Nicholls/ Henderson last-day tussle and the jockeys’ championship, a third for Brian Hughes, was a one-horse race probably from October.

The identity of the top trainers on its prizemoney, rather than winners, criterion, was pretty much set in stone. Nicholls, Henderson (sneaking into second with a memorable last day double), Dan Skelton and, solely due to his Cheltenham Festival domination, Willie Mullins, predictably led the way.

That Mullins could add £1.72 million in the UK to the more than €7m in Ireland is remarkable. What may be less appreciated is that he sent 88 individual horses over here for the 106 combined runs it needed to earn the big bucks, considering only eight were wins.

As my former associate Derek Hatter always used to say, it’s only different numbers and that applies to everything in life. Racing is certainly a numbers game. The top three UK trainers had respectively 166, 142 and 212 individual horses representing them; fifth-placed Fergal O’Brien saddled 208 individuals on his way to 141 wins and £1.61 million in earnings.

Mullins’ domination of Irish racing – for a while challenged by Gordon Elliott who, though still a factor, in championship terms has been put firmly back in his box – extended to 17 winners over the five days of the recently-concluded Punchestown Festival. His earnings last week alone – €1,783,905 according to my admittedly questionable addition – almost exactly matched his whole UK season’s tally, depending on whose currency rates you use.

The domination of the top four trainers depends entirely on their purchasing power and having a stable full of owners who will pay the ever-increasing prices needed to acquire raw material from the Irish pointing field or the plethora of spring juvenile races in Auteuil and other French tracks.

These are more often of fillies who, like Lossiemouth, the outstanding juvenile of the season and a dual Grade 1 winner (in the Triumph at Cheltenham and again at Punchestown on Saturday) won or ran well on debut thus catching the attention of Harold Kirk, Mullins’ principal French talent scout.

Their shopping trips do not always produce instant gold. One private purchase, a gelding bought after two second places from Guillaume Macaire, the most successful French jumps trainer of the past two decades, illustrates that point. He was acquired on behalf of Sullivan Racing Ltd, whose red colours, previously associated on the flat with Richard Hannon, had become a significant part of the Mullins team.

The horse was called Lucky One, a gelded son of Authorized, the 2007 Derby winner and sire of Tiger Roll. He was no doubt selected as a prospect to rank alongside such as Sullivan’s smart winners Duc De Genievres and Eglantine Du Seuil, among several others.

Incidentally the narrow winner and favourite of that race, Aveiro, trained by Francois Nicolle, was bought on behalf of the Coolmore owners and so far, four years on, hasn’t made it to the track since.

Mullins did get Lucky One to the races, but only once and then a full 14 months after that French race. He finished fourth of 16 in a novice hurdle at Punchestown in February 2020.

The following winter he had moved to Paul Nicholls where he had two wide margin wins in eight starts and by the end of that season was rated 143, so smart. Moved again to Dan Skelton, he struggled with that high mark, and after five runs, was passed on at the Doncaster May sale for £18,000.

The trainer willing to take a chance on a horse that had been originally with a French legend and since had been under the care of three of the four outstanding handers in these isles as the stats show (only Nicky Henderson can plead innocence) was Sophie Leech.

Sophie and husband Christian have a 30-box yard at Westbury-on-Severn, near Gloucester, once occupied by my mate the late David Wintle and owned by another pal Keith Bell. Christian was formerly racecourse manager at Warwick and he and Sophie started training in 2007.

On Saturday at Auteuil, the same Lucky One, a 12/1 shot, who had been nurtured and developed in those prestigious environments for the larger part of his life, won the most valuable jumps race run in France so far this year.

Mme Sophie Leech, as France Galop describes her, picked up the Grand Course de Haies de Printemps, and £70k as near as makes no difference, at Auteuil on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday morning – “We go via Calais and it’s only ten hours”, said Christian, “and he’s already in the field.”

The Leech duo have successfully exploited the system of French jumping which has far fewer handicaps than is the case in the UK. “Older horses, like Lucky One, who might now be struggling in handicaps, have plenty of conditions races available to them. It’s almost as though they are back in novice company, and they are obviously much easier to win. Also, these old boys seem to enjoy the travelling,” he said.

It truly is a route to gold and Christian, still revelling in the enormity of the win, says Sophie has already decided on challenging for the French Champion Hurdle, over just more than three miles, on May 20.

Christian says: “He’s unexposed over further, but the way he kept battling over 2m5f suggests he’ll stay. The company will be hotter, but the top French hurdlers keep beating each other. No doubt Willie Mullins will send over one or two as usual. I wonder how he will feel if Lucky One was to beat him!”

Now though this upwardly mobile couple will be hoping that the 20 horses at present in their yard might be increased because of this amazing success. Their three winning horses, the other two are Demoiselle Kap and John Locke, have earned almost £180k just this year.

“In the UK, as we find with our runners here, the expected return is around 10-15% in our experience. In France, we’ve found you must be hopeless if you can’t at least break even with a jumper.”

Clearly the Leeches – there, I had to say it at least once! – are thinking about applying for a three-month licence for next winter. “We would be based at Cagnes-sur-Mer and that would make that course and Pau, whose season follows, much easier to reach, We have done well down there, race programmes clearly suit our horses. Paris is okay, but getting to the Riviera or to Pau, which is near Spain,is much more difficult,” he said.

Lucky One is the right name for a horse that is helping put this talented double act on the map, not that they have had much attention paid to them by the racing media. “It’s like flogging a dead horse,” says Christian. At least where the racehorses are concerned their training talent clearly has the desired effect, making it pay for their owners and themselves. And rather than flogging dead horses, they are extending their effective racing careers.

- TS

Roving Reports: The National’s Still Grand

/in /by

This year's Aintree adventure, as always, starts not on Thursday morning but on Wednesday evening, with my lift to Aintree picking me up, complete with luggage (four work shirts, two pairs of trousers, assorted toiletries, an Aldi 'bag for life' full of wet weather gear, another bag containing all the electricals and laptops I'll need for the trip, including an extension cord and adaptor - absolutely essential when staying away) at 8pm, writes David Massey. There's no need to go any earlier, with the purpose of the trip merely to put us in the right area for Aintree on Thursday, as the pick for bookmaking spots takes place ridiculously early: 10.15am Thursday and Friday, 10am Saturday. Bookmakers tackling the M6 on the relevant mornings have been known to miss their spots. You're much better off staying local and we're just half an hour away, in Warrington. 

We're also taking our friend Steve, who is working for a different bookmaker this week, along with us and dropping him off at his Premier Inn, which is in Warrington but a different one to ours. Sadly, the info Steve has about his residence for the week is limited and we end up dropping him off at the wrong one. "I'm in Room 16", he tells the receptionist but it seems someone called Danielle is already in Room 16, so unless Steve has, er, booked a friend for the evening we are in the wrong place. A quick phone call reveals he's in the one a mile down the road (who knew there were so many Premier Inns in Warrington?) so we pack all his stuff back up, and head off again. 

Once he's in the right place we head to ours, and get our first good result of the week. "I'm afraid the rooms you have booked are being renovated", we are told on arrival, "so we've upgraded you to the Premier Plus rooms." What a touch. Walk-in rainfall shower, here I come...

It's only 9.50pm so I head for a pint next door, only to find the doors of the place locked. It's an early night then. I'll get the double up next morning when I head for breakfast at 7.45am, only to still find the doors firmly bolted. So it's breakfast in the Premier Inn instead, and I have to say it was very good indeed. 

We head for Aintree good and early and arrive at the car park around 9am. I say car park - regular readers might recall the bookmakers' "car park" is little more than an overgrown patch of land opposite the track. It's normally £60 for the three days, but the cost of living has also affected car park owners, it seems, and it's an eye-watering £90 this time around. 

And the state of it. It's bad enough in dry weather, with the vines on the ground waiting to literally trip you up at any moment, but two days of wet weather have turned it to something akin to where you might have staged Junior Kick Start thirty years ago. 

So, hauling the gear on suddenly becomes an Olympic sport, and I'm sweating and knackered before we've even got going. 

In the mornings I can avoid the tedium after the pick by using the press facilities, which I do every day, but for the rest it really is a case of standing around waiting to get going. And when we do, as expected, business comes in dribs and drabs. 

Initially Stage Star is popular but the moment 2-1 Banbridge appears on the board, in come the Euros for him. And they're right, with Stage Star finding it coming too quick after Cheltenham and the fresher Banbridge coming out on top. Banbridge had been my Cheltenham banker, so it was a blow to see him taken out there; this is some compensation. 

Zenta is no good in the next and Shiskin lands the £700-£400 I'd taken, although it looked most unlikely for 90% of the race. We bet with and without the favourite for the Aintree Hurdle and I take the inevitable each-way bet on Constitution Hill. The bloke in question has a tenner each-way; enjoy your £1.25 profit, sir. 

It's strange weather, this. The sun is out but it isn't warm, with the wind keeping the temperature down. However, I'm stood right in the sun and can feel its heat, so take precautions and slap a bit of sunscreen on my bonce. Behind the joint, however, Colin is in the shade and not only has his anorak on, but is reaching for his gloves. 

Famous Clermont is popular in the Foxhunters and the Irish are back with the Euros for Dancing On My Own in the Red Rum. Dysart Enos is barely a good result in the last and that's Day One done. Punters in front, for sure. 

Tea/dinner (dependant on where you're from) is Nando's, with the forever-locked pub now forsaken. I do like the occasional Nando's, and we order the family platter for the five of us. There's plenty left over at the end and I'm only too happy to help clear up. As Colin often points out, "if ever there's an eating competition between the bookmakers, we're putting you in to bat." Harsh. But probably true. 

Thursday is the quietest day of the three, Friday and Saturday are busier and so we are joined by two more workers, Paul and Martin (aka BMW). Martin joined us last night and immediately had a result. On checking in he was told the room he had booked had been trashed by the couple in there the night before (trashing a Premier Inn, how sad do you have to be?) and so had to have a different room, one with a wet room. As compensation, free breakfast. The best sort of breakfast there is. 

The sun is well and truly out today, and shaven-headed Martin goes straight for my sunscreen. I like working with Martin, he always has a tale to tell from his days working with Racing Raymond (most of them utterly unprintable for this column) and, given he has an eye for the ladies, today is most definitely his day. 

The sun does not last long. Showers are predicted from 2pm and whilst the timing is about right, the rain is set in. It's never a good thing for business, and especially on a big day like today. The ladies have already abandoned their heels for flip-flops, but my word their feet, in the mud and rain, become filthy very quickly. On the plus side, whilst their dress length may be short, their betting knowledge is longer, and they know a fiver each-way is a tenner, not a fiver, and don't back favourites each-way. Having said that, you all know I took a £2.50ew Gerri Colombe in the first. 

The handicap hurdle that follows is one of those where they all latch on to the same runners, namely Pull Again Green and Camprond. When neither can be found with radar at the finish, it's going to be a winning race. 

They all want Luccia in the next, but I don't fancy her and place lay her. She doesn't win but in rolling in third costs me a few quid. The Irish pile into Fakir d'Oudaries in the next and I take a €400 bet at 2s, but he can never quite get to Pic D'Orhy and that's another good race for us. Not as good as the Topham, though - not a single bet is struck on my joint on Bill Baxter. A skinner in the big race, and only five people have backed anything in the frame. Incredible. 

We've had two very attractive ladies betting all afternoon with us, not only attractive but good fun to chat to. (Note; Martin is doing most of the chatting.) It's their first time at the races and have had the crash course from us, so know what they're doing by now. One has her last tenner on Apple Away in the next, and I'm delighted for her when it wins. As is she. Punctuation in the last isn't a skinner, perhaps surprisingly, as two people have crystal balls better than mine and have had a tenner each-way on him. One admits to backing the wrong horse, but decided to stick with it anyway, which turns out to be the best decision they'll have made all day. 

With the results very much turning in the bookmakers' favour, it looks like a Friday night Nando's is once again on the cards. We troop over but it's absolutely packed, and as we don't fancy a 90-minute wait, it has to be Pizza Hut instead. The lady serving us is on her last day of service with the company and it would be very easy for her to basically go through the motions with us before she packs up for the night, but far from it. She talks us through all the deals, and couldn't be more attentive if she tried. She gets a good tip. 

Saturday. Grand National Day. We're at the track before nine and having heaved the gear through the ploughed field that is the car park, head on in. Straight away it is noticeable how much security has tightened. Everyone's on edge. Even the mush (the umbrella, for those unaware) gets searched. There's clearly a feeling something is going to kick off, but as yet, where and when remains a mystery. 

In the press room there's donuts and, later, champagne kicking about. I wouldn't normally, not that early anyway, but it seems rude not to. Pork pie, you say? Don't mind if I do. I take another piece for later. 

Let's get betting then. The place feels rammed and despite the first hardly being a betting heat, with Jonbon a 2-11 chance, the forecast option is very popular, with Jonbon to beat Calico the choice of the punters. We're staring at a big payout before Calico departs at the last; maybe that's an omen for the day. 

Or maybe not. Loads of £20 and £50 bets come sailing in for West Balboa and she duly obliges in the next. A monkey comes in for Hermes Allen to recover the Cheltenham losses but Irish Point proves too good for them. He's going to be a force next year, for sure. Not many back Sire Du Berlais either, although one bloke is on a roll, having started with £30 on West Balboa, playing £60 of that up on Irish Point and has now had £100 on Sire Du Berlais. I advise him he can buy lottery tickets at all good newsagents. His next move is £130 on Midnight River at 7-1; when that wins, I tell him to buy two. 

And now, Grand National time. A grand is thrust my way, the punter wanting £500 e/w on Fury Road at 33s. The simply matter is if that wins, we haven't enough float to pay him, so he's laid half that. He's happy and has the rest next door. £100 bets are flying around my ears, mainly for Any Second Now, Delta Work (again, a £250 e/w laid) and Le Milos. 

Then the announcement rings out. "There will be a delay to the start of the race." 

And that's really about it, we hear no more from the PA (as deafening as ever, they haven't listened to a word we said about it last year) until they are going down. However, the power of social media tells us everything that's going on over on the far side, and protestors are indeed now on the course. I'm not here to get into the politics of it all, I shall leave that to others far cleverer than I, but I can tell you it was a massive pain on the day. The only positive I could find was that the ridiculous one-hour gap to the last (utterly unnecessary, 40 minutes would be more than enough) was bridged to around half an hour. 

Remarkably, Corach Rambler is a decent result. Not many have backed it, and the payout queue is not a long one. All we need to do now is get the last out of the way, with business unsurprisingly dropping right off (many head straight for the exits after the National) and head home. 

Farewell car park, I hope you've dried up by next year. Better still, had some concrete over the top of you. I think that's probably asking too much. Knackered, but paid up and with a little bonus, it's time to go back to Nottingham. See you all next time.

- DM

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