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Jockey Profiles: Danny Tudhope and Ben Curtis

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This is the third in my series of articles on jockeys, and in this one I am examining the two jockeys who have ridden the most winners at northern or Scottish tracks in the past eight seasons, namely Danny Tudhope and Ben Curtis, writes Dave Renham. Between them they have ridden over 7500 horses in this part of the UK, winning 1242 races (Tudhope 687 wins, Curtis 555), and these runners have accounted for about 75% of Tudhope’s total rides in the UK/Ireland and about 64% of Curtis’s. They have both been successful ‘down south’ as well; Tudhope, for example, has ridden four winners on two separate occasions in Royal Ascot festivals – once in 2019 and then again in 2022.

As with the previous two articles I am analysing the last eight full years of flat racing in the UK and Ireland (2015-2022). I am using the Profiler Tool along with the Query Tool as the main vehicles for my data gathering. In all the tables profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

Let’s start with Tudhope.

Danny Tudhope Jockey Profile

Danny Tudhope: Overall Record

Let me first review Tudhope’s overall stats by looking at his performance on every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

This is a very presentable set of figures – a win rate of roughly one win in every six and very modest losses of just over 7½ pence in the £ to SP. Indeed, to BSP this would have been converted into a profit of £317.49 (ROI +6.1%), with five of the individual years showing 'in the black' against the machine. Tudhope's A/E index, a ratio that essentially determines value, is above the average for all jockeys, as is his PRB figure.

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Year

Yearly stats are the next port of call. Here is a breakdown by both win and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As can be seen, 2019 was his best year hitting the winners' enclosure on nearly one in five of his rides. Overall, Tudhope's performance has been very consistent both from a win and placed perspective, which is something one always likes to see. This consistency can be viewed even more clearly when we look at his yearly PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures:

 

 

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

The Profiler on Geegeez gives a breakdown of performance by Starting Price splitting the market into seven price brackets. Tudhope’s figures are as follows:

 

 

At the shorter prices (9/4 or less) his figures are slightly below what would be expected, certainly in terms of returns. The remaining figures are slightly above what might be expected in terms of returns. His strike rate of 5.16% on horses priced 16/1 to 25/1 is well above the figure for ALL jockeys, which stands at only 3.47%. The same is true when looking at the 9/1 to 14/1 price bracket – Tudhope’s SR% stands at 7.96%, the ALL jockey figure stands at 6.56%. These mid- to bigger-priced horses have definitely offered some value for punters over the past eight seasons, though with single digit hit rates, it can be a long time between drinks!

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Distance

A look at Tudhope’s record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands as with the previous two jockey pieces, and once again it is win strike rates that are being compared:

 

 

Similar strike rates, although the longest distance win percentage is slightly below the others. This might be due to the smaller sample size of 139 races. Tudhope primarily rides in races of 1 mile or less – roughly 75% of all his rides have been over these shorter distances with an even split between 5-6f and 7f-1m. Personally, I am a fan of Tudhope in sprints – he is excellent when on a front runner in these 5-6f races, winning over 30% of the time (92 wins from 300). Backing all these runners would have yielded a profit of £161.01 to SP (ROI +53.7%). Clearly we are never totally sure which horse is going to front run, but if a Tudhope sprinter does go to the front early it is cause for optimism. For the record, his returns on front runners have been virtually identical in handicap sprints and non-handicap sprints.

He also has a winning strike rate of around 27% in 7f-1m races on front runners which is equally as eye-catching, if not more so (N.B. average SR% for ALL jockeys on 7f-1m front runners is 18%).

 

Danny Tudhope: Record By Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Tudhope has had at least 150 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

As expected, the majority of the courses in the table are northern English or Scottish tracks. Overall there is a fair smattering of profitable courses. When looking at market factors and taking out some of the bigger priced winners, four courses stand out, namely Beverley, Musselburgh, Redcar and Ripon. Tudhope riding at any of these should generally be considered to be a positive. At Beverley it is worth noting that restricting Tudhope to horses that were either favourite or second favourite would have yielded 46 winners from 142 rides (SR 32.4%) for an SP profit of £31.63 (ROI +22.3%). To BSP this edges up to +£47.88 (ROI +33.7%).

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Trainer

Time to examine the trainer stats and below are all the trainers (still in business) for whom Tudhope has had at least 100 rides. They are ordered by strike rate.

 

 

Tudhope is David O’Meara’s stable jockey which explains the huge number of rides for the Yorkshire handler. He has a very good strike rate when riding for the William Haggas stable, but a good proportion of these rides have been at short prices. A couple of courses stand out with the Haggas / Tudhope combination: firstly they are 8 from 17 at Redcar, while at Newcastle they have secured 11 wins from just 23 runs.

He has profitable records to SP when riding for Archie Watson and Karl Burke. In fact, when riding for Watson, which he has done between 2017 and 2022, five of those six years produced a profit to BSP.

There are three trainers that should be mentioned, although none made the above table due to not having enough rides to qualify. They are Kevin Ryan, James Bethell and Sir Michael Stoute. Tudhope has a good record with all three both from a strike rate and a returns perspective.

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now. I have already shared the fact that Tudhope has an excellent front running record on horses that race between 5f and 1m. Here is a breakdown of his run style performance in terms of percentage of runners that match each one:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those you would find if you averaged out all jockeys in the weighing room. It is a shame he has not led early on more than 15.4% of all horses considering how effective he is from the front. Of course, that style doesn't suit all horses on all occasions.

Tudhope wins more often with front running horses than with prominent racers, which in turn out-perform midfield racers and those held up early. This is the normal pattern we see for virtually all jockeys on the flat.

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Market Factors

As regular readers will know I am a big fan of looking at favourite run style data, too, as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding ‘good horses at the front, bad ones at the back’. Here are the relative win strike rates for Tudhope horses that have started as the market leader in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

Front running favourites perform much the best. They secured a profit of around 15p in the £ assuming your crystal ball could have accurately predicted that they would all front run as well as being favourite. Tudhope has won from the front on favourites at all distances so is clearly an excellent judge of pace when leading, regardless of distance.

He is also one of the better jockeys from off the pace, especially in races at beyond a mile. In longer distance races I would not be put off by a Tudhope runner that habitually is held up.

I will summarize Danny Tudhope main takeaways at the end of the article, but now it is time to look at Ben Curtis.

 

Ben Curtis Jockey Profile

Ben Curtis Overall Record

Here are the overall stats for Ben Curtis:

 

 

Curtis has a slightly lower win strike rate than Tudhope, but still highly respectable, around the one win in seven mark. The A/E index of 0.95 is close to ‘value’ and to BSP Curtis would have secured punters a 4p in the £ profit across all his 5796 rides, which is mightily impressive.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Year

Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

There has been a clear uptick when comparing 2018-2022 data with that from 2015-2017. This has occurred both from a win and each way perspective. There is a reason for this, as the improvement coincided with getting better rides as a whole from 2018: we can see this when we look at the prices of his runners year by year, especially the shorter end of the market. Here is a graph looking at the percentage of Curtis's rides by year that have been on horses priced 9/2 or shorter.

 

 

As the graph indicates, in 2022 compared with 2015 he rode more than double the number of horses sent off at 9/2 or shorter (in terms of percentage of his rides). Riding shorter priced runners improves the strike rate and that has been the driving force in the more recent past. I have said before that, where possible, we cannot be dependent on just one type of statistic. The more data and info we have at our fingertips the better, especially when it helps us understand why certain stats look the way they do.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

A look now at the Profiler splits in terms of Industry Starting Price:

 

 

The shortest priced runners (odds on) have, amazingly, nudged into SP profit. That is unusual. The 9/1 to 14/1 bracket has also seen him out-perform the average, certainly in terms of strike rate, as we saw with Tudhope earlier. It looks like the very big-priced runners (28/1 or more) are worth avoiding though – just 5 winners from 553 with losses of just over 62 pence for every £1 staked.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Distance

Time to see if there are any clear differences when we look at Ben's record at different distances. Normally these figures are very similar, but it is always worth checking just in case:

 

 

As with Tudhope the very longest distances have the lowest strike rate, but again the sample size is smaller than the other categories – 197 races in the 1m7f+ sample. I would say Curtis has no major strengths or weaknesses when it comes to riding at different distances.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Racecourse

Let's take a look at ‘Curtis by course’ – as before the courses are listed alphabetically and the minimum number of rides to qualify is 150:

 

 

Seven of the 19 courses have produced a profit to SP, with the Carlisle stats leaping off the page. At Carlisle Curtis has secured comfortably the highest strike rate compared to other courses, likewise the A/E index is the highest of all courses as is the PRB figure. Profits are extremely high, but we need to dig a bit deeper to see how many big-priced winners have affected the bottom line.

The biggest priced winner for Curtis at Carlisle has actually only been 25/1 so that makes these figures even more impressive. Below is the Carlisle breakdown by year, which is always useful to review for consistency:

 

 

Probably two things stand out initially. Firstly the eye is drawn to the poor performance in 2019 and, secondly, the 2015 profit figure accounts for over half of the eight year bottom line. Dealing with the poor 2019 – this is bound to happen when examining course/jockey stats. If you look at the PRB figure for that year it was similar to four of the six other years, so things are not as bad as they look at first glance. Also when delving in more detail into 2019, it emerges that Curtis rode eight horses at the course which finished second including at some reasonable prices – 6/1, 7/1, 8/1. With smaller data samples these ‘poor’ years will happen. Statistical variance, luck, quality of rides will all play a part too.

In terms of 2015 providing more than half the profit, it should be noted that four of the other six seasons made a profit, and decent profits at that. 2022 was a losing year, but his placed strike rate was actually the highest of any of the seasons (59%) so again perhaps not as ‘bad’ a year as the raw stats suggest.

All in all it is clear that Curtis rides Carlisle very well and, for the record, he has won for 24 different trainers at the course, so he is not reliant on a single handler, like so many jockeys are. He has also won for 30 different trainers at Beverley (57 winners).

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Trainer

That leads us nicely onto Curtis's performance for different trainers now. Below are all the trainers (still operating) for whom Curtis has had at least 100 rides. They are ordered by strike rate.

 

* including singular trainer name entities at the same yard

The combination with William Haggas is extremely good, although Curtis has only had nine rides for the stable in the past two seasons. Curtis has produced a profit to SP with horses from the top three in the betting for five of the trainers in the table; namely Haggas, Boughey, Palmer, Ellison and Appleby. He has only started riding for Boughey in the past three seasons but it is worth noting that on horses priced 6/1 or shorter the combo has produced a highly impressive 38 winners from 81 runners (SR 38.8%) for an SP profit of £22.10 (ROI +27.6%). To BSP returns increase to +36%. He has ridden a lot for Karl Burke in the past, but last year saw him have just six rides so it is not a combination that is going to produce many more runners it seems.

Before moving away from trainers, Curtis also has an excellent record when riding for two other trainers – for Charlie Hills he is 13 wins from 44 (SR 29.6%) and for George Scott 16 wins from 59 (SR 27.1%).

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now, and here is a breakdown of Curtis’s run style in terms of percentage of runners that match each one:

 

 

It is good to see he is above the average figure for ALL jockeys when it comes to front runners and also he is below the average for hold up horses. This to me suggests that he has some appreciation about the value of early track position.

Onto his win record on favourites in terms of run style:

 

 

Curtis has a slightly higher SR% figure on prominent favourites to the norm, but the general pattern is seen once more – there is such a simple answer to the question, ‘Would you prefer to be on a front running favourite or a held up favourite?’

It should also be shared that Curtis's front-running favourites were profitable to SP, as were the prominent racing favourites.

 

Danny Tudhope and Ben Curtis: Main Takeaways

The table below summarises the key takeaways for these two giants of the northern circuit:

 

 

So there you have it – two for the price of one!

I hope this article has uncovered a few more angles that may prove profitable for you to deploy over the coming months.

- DR

Roving Reports: Two Days of Epsom

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Whilst the title of the piece suggests I'm only away from home two days, as anyone that works The Derby will tell you, it feels like an awful lot longer, writes David Massey.

The days are long and, for a fair part, boring. That's down to Epsom's policy of having bookmakers in place before a single paying customer is in the track. I can, to an extent, understand that in some areas; for instance, where we will be betting in the Lonsdale Enclosure, which is where you see all those double-decker buses in the middle of the track, the buses themselves are told to be in for a certain time. However, our pick time on the Friday is 10am and on Derby Day, 9.30am. Usually that would mean a 4 1/2 hour gap before the first, so you're sat down reading the paper or chatting to fellow bookmakers to kill time, but with the first at 12.50 this year that means the dead time is considerably reduced.

Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself. It's Thursday evening and we are on our way down, staying in Addlestone, about half an hour from the course. I'm delighted with that as it means a trip to the excellent Bread And Roses for breakfast. (Tim: "Do you ever think about anything other than food?" Me: "Yes, racing"). This, of course, is to avoid any M1/M25 pitfalls on the Friday morning and whilst it means more expenses, it's the right thing to do.

I know this as when we do arrive Friday at 9.15 am, Jerry, one of the best known workmen on the track and a thoroughly nice bloke to boot, divulges that he's been there since half seven. "It was only just light when we set off," he informs us. "I'm told we've got to be here for half six tomorrow." His face tells a picture of what agony that is going to bring. I suddenly feel rather lucky that I'll be getting up at seven tomorrow morning.

Anyway, our team of six (we are running three pitches) get the gear out and that includes the extra bit of essential kit you require for the Derby meeting. As well as laptops, batteries, lightboards and the like, deckchairs are a must. Quite simply, if you don't, there's nothing to sit on, with all the available room required for the buses to park up in.

Martin, aka BMW, is reminiscing about the time when he used to bet on The Hill back in the 80s. "Teenoso's Derby. I remember that well", he says. "Well, me and Tim [also on the team this weekend] rocked up late, didn't we? We were both suited and booted and I'd managed to get hold of a "moody" [for those unaware, this is racing parlance for fake] Lyons caterer's pass, they catered for the Royals in those days. The bloke on the gate stopped us and looked at my pass. 'You're a bit late, aren't you?' he says. I tell him we got held up traffic. 'No, I mean that pass. It's about six years out of date!' Well, now we're stuck aren't we? I've one last dice to roll. "Look, pal, whilst you're arguing with me about that pass, the Queen's strawberries are going off in the back of the van. We need to get them into a fridge and quick!" At this point your man decides he can't take any chances, with a queue building up behind us, and waves us in. We got betting and won a carpet on the day."

Such larks, eh? Wouldn't happen these days... 😉

We decide to get betting around 1pm but it is very slow to get going. The buses are still having lunch and nobody wants to strike a wager. I'm betting with Col in pick 1 today, the best pick by a mile in the Lonsdale, but even here it's slow business. Last year, the train strike really had an effect at York and it appears it is having the same effect today. How bad we won't know until the end of the weekend, but normally the grass around would be covered in picnickers and there's a lot of green still visible.

The racing starts and Bobsleigh and Austrian Theory are both decent results in the first two but, as ever, the Frankie factor kicks in when it's big-race time and the payout queue is a long one after Emily Upjohn hoses up in the Coronation Cup. As was pointed out by Ian of IG Racing after, "the book is so lop-sided when Frankie rides on big days there's simply nothing you can do about it. You shorten it and shorten it again, but it doesn't matter, they just plough in regardless. Nothing you can do expect pray." They aren't answered in the Oaks either, with Soul Sister getting the better of the favourite.

The rest of the day passes by without incident or highlight, and at stumps we look at how business has been. Over 50% down. And expenses up. As it stands, they aren't yet covered for the two days, and we have work to do Saturday.

The inevitable early, and indeed cold, start on Saturday. We arrive at 8.25am and the first thing to notice is the increased security presence. I walk to the other side of the track and am stopped twice in the space of 200yds over there. You can't fart without someone being there to ask what you're up to.

I do a bit of work in the Press Room to pass the time, but by 10am I'm back in place at the joint. There aren't anywhere near as many buses as last year, with some big gaps where they usually are. They should put some seats in.

Those on foot are allowed in half an hour later, and the rush to get the best picnic spots is on. It's very much like when they open the gates at Cheltenham, only that's for the seats. That isn't going to happen here.

I ask the ice-cream lady if I can have a share in her van today if I give her a point bigger all bets she has with us. I think that's a great deal, personally, but at £4 a pop (that includes a Flake) she decides she'll take her chances in the sun.

With the earlier start we get betting at 11.30 but, again, it's steady away. I spend more of my time shifting the public from my betting area ("behind the line, please") than I do taking bets. Four doors down from me, a group of lads have set a trestle table up and are already into the drinking games. A long afternoon in store for the bookmaker they're in front of.

There's normally a bit of banter with the punters on days like this but this year has a strange feel to it. This isn't what I would call a "normal" Derby crowd. Sure, the picnickers are out in force but other than that, it seems like a very top-heavy young lads crowd. And most are not interested in having a bet, merely seeing how much ale they can get down them in as short a space of time. Twice I have to ask a small crowd of them to move on, as they're standing right in front of the joint, but every time they shuffle one way or the other, they're back in front of me within five minutes. Rare I raise my voice but, unless I do, I'm not going to take any bets. So I have to get stern and thankfully, Christian Holland, the bookmaker to my right, throws his two penn'orth in as well. This has the desired effect and they finally move themselves, along with about half a dozen Sainsbury's carrier bags full of cans.

Regal Reality was well backed for the first, and gets plenty of punters off to a winning start, and then it's Derby time. I don't need to tell you what the punters want to back, do I?

Arrest, and only Arrest. One-horse book again. However, he's already sweating up badly as he goes past me to post and by the time he's down at the start looks very wound up and on his toes. I feel like we might get a result.

There's no sign of any protests as they start to go behind, and in all honesty, as betting has all but finished, I'm looking up and down our rails for any signs of activity. There are none. The last one goes in and they're off. I stand down off the joint to get an apple out my bag and watch the race when a roar goes up. We do now have a protester and he's no more than 100yds away from me. Did I miss him? Was he in our enclosure after all? It appears not - he's come from Tatts and is now running across the course. It's all over in the blink of an eye, though, as he's nowhere to go and the police do an excellent job in getting him off in under 20 seconds. After the race he's literally carried out, with a few choice words in his ear from racegoers.

Arrest - well-named for the protester - is well beaten, so we're bound to win, although from a personal perspective I'd have loved King Of Steel to have held on, if only because I could say I saw him win on debut...

Strangely, the public desert Frankie for the Princess Elizabeth - maybe they don't think it's his day - but they are wrong to do so as he gets up on Prosperous Voyage. I've laid a £200 bet at 6-4 on my pitch but other than that, there isn't any decent money around.

In fact there are long periods of not taking a bet at all as the afternoon progresses. The trains not running have killed business again. Navello is a skinner in the Dash, I take £800 on the race and have the grand sum of £47.50 to pay out. Torito and Sheer Rocks are both okay results but, as ever, and in order to get out the track as quickly as possible, you pray to The Last Race Gods for a result and we get one, with Badri a cracker, other than the guy who had £40ew (with the fractions, natch) at 12s.

We're packed and in the car for six, the best result of the day by far. I see Jerry in the car park, and bless him he looks done in. "I think", he offers, "if I'm asked 'do you want to work The Derby?' next year, I might have a dental appointment, or be at someone's wedding..."

Sadly, we bump into the Wembley traffic on the way home and the M1 is a nightmare. Never mind. We're heading back to the Midlands and that's all that matters. Southwell on Tuesday, you know. Give me the Rolleston Massive any day of the week!

- DM

Monday Musings: Conrad Allen – A Life in Racing

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What happens when a self-confessed journeyman trainer suddenly gets the opportunity to go to the sales, armed with the sort of hitherto undreamed-of financial backing to make him a candidate for the best prospects on offer?

That was the situation suddenly presented to Conrad Allen, 36 years a trainer and, apart from three years when resident senior handicapper for racing in Qatar, between 2009 and 2011, a man who has sent out winners every year since 1987, writes Tony Stafford.

Now though, the Breeze-up season was his target as new investor Ify Madueke excitedly looked through the catalogues first for the Craven, then Goffs at Doncaster and, lastly, the Guineas breeze back at HQ.

Ify is the father of Chelsea’s exciting January signing Noni, at £26.5 million one of the club’s less expensive buys in that explosive and excessive January window. Noni is a 21-year-old English player of Nigerian heritage, but one who had nurtured his skill and reputation over three years with PSV in Holland.

Not everyone has been overjoyed at Chelsea’s spending but for Conrad, 63, an avowed Spurs fan who grew up in nearby Edmonton, it has meant a new client coming literally from out of the blue.

“There was no joy for us at the Craven when prices were astronomical for anything I liked, but I picked out two at Goffs the following week.

“I loved the Twilight Son filly, who came up first. Ify said he would go to 200k for her. Unfortunately Richard Brown also liked her, and he got her for 360 grand – we were underbidders at 350! She is now called Beautiful Diamond and won very easily first time for Karl Burke.

“Undeterred, an hour later we were in for a Dark Angel filly, but again there was plenty of competition, Andrew Balding securing her for £340,000. She has had two runs and was a good second in the Hilary Needler at Beverley on Saturday,” he rued.

So now it was down to the least prestigious of the three, the Guineas breeze. Happily, trainer, new owner, and advisor Jim Lovat, a vastly experienced racing man who had been an owner with horses at a high level with former trainer Jeremy Noseda, got their filly. Lovat had owned High Havens Stables when Conrad trained from there for ex-footballer and broadcaster Alan Brazil.

“She was a small, active, typical breeze-up horse, by Cotai Glory and we got her for 65,000 guineas. We also bought a second filly, a daughter of US Navy Flag, who will take much more time.

“From the kick-off, Princess Chizara, named after the owner’s daughter, was quick, and leading up to her debut at Brighton last week, I called Ify and told him I wanted a jockey who was prepared to come to ride her here. That would rule out all the top boys and asked him for Darragh Keenan, brave and very much a horseman.”

The Brighton race was a four-runner affair with a long odds-on shot, three second places on his book. He was Mashadi, a 265,000 guineas yearling purchase trained by Richard Hannon for Amo Racing. As Conrad relates, “Our filly was going down to the start with her head in Darragh’s face and for quite a while behind the stalls it looked as though she might refuse to load. Fortunately, Darragh showed his horsemanship, and the starter was patient with her.”

Headed from the gate for a few strides by the favourite, Princess Chizara then took off, led inside the first furlong, and was never passed thereafter, drawing away to win impressively by almost five lengths in quick time. “Now we must go to Ascot. It was slightly annoying when the coverage on Sky Sports Racing suggested it unusual for me to have a nice juvenile. For much of my training career I would spec ten to 15 juveniles every year, with Harry Beeby of Doncaster sales urging me (and everyone else) on. If I told him I didn’t have any money, he’d say, “Pay for them when you sell them.” That was fine if they were any good, but when they weren’t, you couldn’t sell them and then had to keep them and be stuck with them.

“As I grew older and wiser, I stopped doing that and as you become part of the furniture, new trainers come along. People stop sending horses to you. I recall one example. My wife Bobbie worked as a secretary/assistant to Dana Brudenell-Bruce, daughter of Stanhope Joel (brother of Jim) and sister of Solna Thomson Jones, owners of Snailwell Stud and therefore major breeders.

“Once every month Bobbie used to drive Dana to the races and this day we went up to Beverley together where I had a winner. On our way back she said: “We are going to send some yearlings to young James Fanshawe who is going to start training, to help him.” He had been assistant to Michael Stoute. I knew then, coming as I did from Edmonton, I just wasn’t the right type for these established owner-breeders, and I haven’t been proved wrong since either.

“It was a total fluke that I ended up in racing. As a young child, I spent much of my early days in the company of actors as my father had been in the original cast of Half A Sixpence with Tommy Steele. We moved to New York when the show moved to Broadway, but when my parents split up, we came back to North London. My mother used her contacts in the business to get me loads of work in 1960’s TV adverts, such as Rice Krispies, Bisto and Vosene. I also went for the role of Oliver Twist in the film of Oliver but didn’t get it!

“That convinced me that acting wasn’t for me and the options for a young man from a one-parent family in those days were three-fold, an apprenticeship, in a bank or the Army. I chose banking and for two years I built up experience, soon showing I had the acumen for finance. The people I worked with were mainly very much older and with deaths, retirements and my own progress, promotion was rapid.

“But I had been attracted to horse racing as my grandfather had been a bookmaker and earlier as I had been looking for a challenge, I had decided to go to the local stables and begin riding. At first, I found it difficult, but I was determined to rise to the challenge, so I was soon offering to help at the Trent Park stables in North London in exchange for lessons.

“This continued alongside working in the bank and when I said I wanted to leave, I was assured I could come back when I wished. But one bank manager suggested, as I had improved my riding, to apply to become a jockey.

“We wrote to six trainers and got six job offers. I chose Tim Moloney at Melton Mowbray. At 18, I was older than the other apprentices and at the same time, I took out a mortgage and bought my first house.

“I had three ambitions, to ride in a race, to compete against Lester Piggott, and to partner a winner; and it took me until 21 to achieve all three. After working as a lad for Harry Wragg, I then rode as back-up to Philip Robinson with Mick Ryan. In those days, apprentices lost their claim through age, unlike nowadays, so once I lost mine, after one win as a fully-fledged jockey, I stopped there and then.

“I then took a livery yard at Brinkley, taking people’s broken-down horses and bringing them back to racing fitness. Eventually one contact asked me to accommodate an Anglo-Arab and train her. I had no idea what to do, but finally agreed and we took the horse to Goodwood for an Arabian race. When I saw the opposition, mostly looking like horses straight out of the field, I got rather more confident, and the filly won.

“It was a short step then to training and, by late 1987, I had a licence, never having enough money to buy into the top level but always sufficient contacts to keep the show going. I will, sadly to my mind, forever be known as the man who trained the first-ever winner on a UK all-weather track, and that was a total fluke!

“I thought the first day of all-weather was something to aim at, and entered two horses for the claimer, at Lingfield Park on October 30, 1989, which was due off as the third race. In the end, with multiple divisions, one of ours, Niklas Angel was in the first of 12 races on the card and won the race at 11 a.m.

“Continuing my investing in property, I bought Shadowfax Stables, building up to around 30 horses, with the help of a couple of important owners, who brought in many investors.

“We were the forerunners in stable sponsorship but when both men died from cancer within a short time of each other, the people they had brought in also melted away.  From 25 horses, suddenly I was down to four.

“I had sold my yard and asked Charlie McBride – formerly my assistant – if I could move them to him and that I would ride them out for free. I had been planning to go to the US to train, but first I resolved to clear all my debt with vets, feed and the other outstanding costs of running a racing yard.

“Then one day, Michael Fenton, the handicapper, not the jockey, and a friend of Charlie’s, asked had I thought of becoming a handicapper?

“I said, of course not, I’m a trainer.” He said “Exactly, you act as a handicapper every day of the week,” telling me Qatar wanted a handicapper. They would fly me out there, pay me $8,000 a month, find me accommodation and a car.

“I got the job simply because of Michael’s recommendation and because I told them I could do it. Soon I was travelling around the world attending all the international handicappers’ meetings in Hong Kong, Dubai and Paris and conferences in Sydney, Paris again and Tokyo.

“I could have stayed longer but it was really like a paid prison sentence, so I decided to come back. I did keep my Qatari contacts and trained for them, but it wasn’t something that could be relied upon over any length of time.”

Here I can make my own small intervention. As Conrad told me at the time, if I wanted the job, he could probably arrange it for me. Another opportunity spurned in my life of missed chances? Possibly.

It was over the past couple of years, as he had been chugging along quite happily, that Conrad was made an introduction by Martin Dwyer that has undoubtedly led to this new phase in his career’s becoming possible.

“Martin had become friendly with a young businessman he had been riding for, who had been very successful in the building industry. Having initially started owning a few horses, he rapidly developed a vision of owning 100 within a few years.

“His name was Simon Lockyer, but at the time we were introduced, he had over-invested with his previous trainers and needed a drastic cutting back. He told me he wanted to send me 38 horses. I had 18 boxes at my yard in Hamilton Road, but with access to a similar number further up the road in a livery/spelling yard.

“I said I would take eight, and we chipped away, and he said this was the first time a trainer had ever recommended he reduce rather than increase his string.  We were left with a manageable number of horses that were not only money-spinners at their level, but proved to the business that given the right material I could get results. None of those we discarded ever gave cause to regret those decisions. Unfortunately, Simon, of whom I have a high regard, has had to withdraw from racing for now, but I hope his wish one day to return on a more realistic scale, can be in partnership with me.

“Several of the remaining horses were quickly sold, and crucially, in the case of Tyger Bay, a share went to Middleham Park. Now, as he has done so well, we have Incrimination for them with the promise of another to come.

“But more importantly, when Ify Madueke wanted advice on which trainer to employ, Jim Lovat recommended me. As we stood in the winners’ enclosure at Brighton on Friday, Jim said: “At least now you know you’re a good judge.” I replied, I’ve always been a good judge, but I’ve never had the money to back it up.” He smiled and said, “You have now!”

“Princess Chizara is all speed, so the choice is whether to stay with the fillies in the Queen Mary, probably including Beautiful Diamond, or take on the boys in the Windsor Castle. All those years ago when we had a Queen Mary filly in Toocando I’m sure I went the wrong path taking on Lyric Fantasy. Next time out we were was second to future 1,000 Guineas winner Sayyedati In the Cherry Hinton at Newmarket.

“It’s great to have that sort of discussion to look forward to after all these years,” he said.

- TS

Placepot Fun

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As a bit of a change, I recorded my thought processes - not quite literally - during the framing of a couple of placepots I struck today. As usual, I deployed the 'in development' ticket builder to place optimized part-perms (don't worry if that sounds like alienspeak, I'll clarify another day - basically, it takes my picks and breaks them into the most likely set of outcome combinations).

I went at Ffos Las and Hamilton on video, and also had a small roll at Uttoxeter. Happily, the recorded pair both collected, while I exited at Uttoxeter when a non-runner took a five horse race down to four (win only). Annoying as I normally cover that scenario in my play. Here are the tickets I placed, where * is unnamed favourite, lowest racecard number when joint- or co-favourites:

 

 

Anyway, the main purpose of the videos is to share a little of the things I look at when framing this sort of bet. There is no narrative, just a bit of music - feel free to mute if you no likey - but you'll be able to follow the cursor around the screen, which is a reasonable proxy for my thinking out aloud.

[The controls bottom right will handle tweaks to volume, playback speed, and full screen toggle]

 

Ffirst up, viva Ffos Las Vegas. You can track the results here - choose 'Recent Results' > 'Thu 8 Jun' > then use the dropdown for meeting.

 

 

The tickets shaped up like this in the end (number of placed selections replacing the actual selections, which you can see in the video):

Ffos Las placepot paid £90.30 with tote's 5% uplift, so that was a nice 7/2+ winner for the £18.80 stake and £1 worth of winning tix - and plenty of fun through the afternoon.

 

Meanwhile, at Hamilton Park, I rolled the dice like this:

 

The tickets were thus:

This time I had £2.20 in winning tix, of a dividend that paid £26.25 for each pound, again factoring in tote's 5% bonus for betting with them. So £57.75 for a stake of £20.40, a 7/4 shot or so.

Nothing earth-shatteringly profitable, but two solid returns on workaday dividends and, crucially, great craic all afternoon.

 

For what it's worth - after the fact, literally nothing - here's the £18.12 Uttoxeter overture I played:

 

And here's the tiny in-running saver I had on the horse that blew up the placepot, which made it a free bet:

 

I hope there's something in the videos above worth thinking about in terms of the parts of the racecards you look at for various things; you have to make some inference on the basis that there's no commentary, but I'm sure at least some people will appreciate that all the more!

Stay lucky,

Matt

 

Jockey Profiles: Ryan Moore

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The second in my series of articles on jockeys and, this time, Ryan Moore comes under the microscope.

Ryan Moore Introduction

Ryan Moore was born in Brighton in 1983 and he rode his first winner in the year 2000. Three years later, he broke through the 50 winners in a year barrier and, in 2004, he notched up his first century (132). In his early career he rode primarily for Richard Hannon but, by the mid-2000s, Moore was getting an increasing number of rides for Sir Michael Stoute. It was for Sir Michael that he recorded his first Group 1 success with Notnowcato in the Juddmonte Stakes at York in August 2006. In 2011 he started being noticed by Aidan O’Brien and, by 2016, he had ridden over 100 times in a season for the Irish maestro in the UK and Ireland combined. The Coolmore Stud provided the vast majority of these rides from the Ballydoyle handler, giving Moore the opportunity to ride some of the very top horses in training. In 2017 he secured his 2000th British winner and Moore is a definitely a jockey who justifies a deep dive into his statistical performance.

As with the Hollie Doyle piece I have analysed the last eight full years of flat racing in the UK and Ireland (2015-2023). I have used the Profiler Tool along with the Query Tool as the main vehicles for my data gathering. In all the tables profit/loss quoted is to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

Ryan Moore: Overall Record

Let's first look at Moore’s overall stats by reviewing his performance on every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

An excellent strike rate for Moore, in excess of one win in every five, primarily due to the fact that a sizable percentage of his rides are on fancied runners at shorter prices. This market detail also partly accounts for the fact that the PRB figure is very high at 0.63. His A/E index, a ratio that essentially determines value, is around the average for all jockeys.

We can also see that backing all his rides blind would have secured losses of nearly 21p in the £ to SP; to BSP the returns improve, but we still would have lost around 12p for every £1 staked.

Ryan Moore: UK v Ireland

It is relevant to distinguish performance in the UK versus Ireland for Moore because there is a quite a difference:

 

 

As can be seen, Moore's record in Ireland is far superior in terms of win percentage. This is mainly due to the fact that, in Ireland, 93% of his rides have been for Aidan O’Brien, whereas in the UK this combo stands at just 17% of total rides. O’Brien runners are rarely big prices so as a result of this one would expect to see that high strike rate for Moore in Ireland. However, perhaps what is more significant is if we look at the data for horses from the top three in the betting, comparing Ryan's record in the UK with his record in Ireland.

 

 

We are now comparing like for like from a betting market perspective. And yet still we see a stronger performance in Ireland and a much higher strike rate, as well as significantly better returns and a stronger A/E index. It should be noted we get a similar set of results if using a price bracket of say 5/1 or less. Already I am thinking Moore riding in Ireland is something to keep an eye on.

Ryan Moore: Record by Year

Annual data are the next port of call. Here is a breakdown by win percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

Six of the eight years have seen a strike rate of over 20%; 2019 and 2020 were the years to dip below that figure. One obvious reason that may help explain this lower level was that Aidan O’Brien slightly under-performed at the same time. Obviously that would have affected Moore’s record as he rides so regularly for the stable. Moreover, 2020 was Covid-affected with Moore largely unable to ride in Ireland: he had just 15 rides, across Irish Champions Weekend, with two wins and another five placed horses.

If we track the yearly strike rates of both trainer and jockey we can see there is a clear correlation:

 

 

As punters we need to appreciate that in most cases jockeys are only as good as the horses they are riding, and those primarily riding for top stables will win more often than jockeys who ride regularly for ‘lesser’ stables. This is why when researchers drill into data they often use price bands to compare in order to offer a fairer comparison (like I did earlier in the UK v Ireland – top three in the betting stats). Talking of price, let's look at this area next:

Ryan Moore: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

The Profiler offers a breakdown of performance by Starting Price splitting the market into seven price brackets. I have taken Moore’s record straight from that table:

 

 

As can be seen, Moore does not ride many genuine outsiders – less than 50 rides on horses priced 28/1 or bigger in the last eight years. From the table, then, it looks sensible to concentrate on horses priced 17/2 or shorter. When using BSP with these shorter priced runners one would have lost only around 6p in the £ across 3549 qualifiers. That's not too bad given the huge sample. In fact we would have made a small profit to BSP last year (2022) on horses with an industry SP of 17/2 or shorter. Hindsight, eh?

One clear problem with jockeys as well renowned as Moore is securing value. How easy is it to obtain value on a Moore mount? Clearly it is not easy, so we need to keep digging!

Ryan Moore: Record by Distance

A look at Ryan's record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands. Again I am comparing strike rates:

 

 

The one distance bracket that stands out from a strike rate perspective is 1m1f to 1m3f. The data sample is considerable so one would guess there is something going on here. But what could be happening? The first point to clarify is there is not a field size-related bias, even if 7f-1m races have a slightly bigger average field size than other distances.

One factor could be that Moore rarely blasts his runners out of the gates and hence tends to front run in races less than the average jockey. With that in mind, this might be what is hindering his strike rate figures at shorter distances (less than a mile). Over longer distances the front running bias declines considerably and hence in 1m1f to 1m3f this is not such an issue. That is one plausible idea.

Another theory is linked to the fact he rides many of the best bred middle distance horses in the world, usually for O'Brien / Coolmore Stud. Indeed if you look at the distance stats for Moore when riding for O’Brien, the best distance range for the pair is also 1m1f to 1m3f – hitting close to a 31% success rate. Backing this combo over these distances would have yielded a BSP profit of over 15p in the £. This theory, which initially had plenty of logic to it, now has some evidence to give it 'real world' credibility.

My final word on this distance section is simply that Moore may just judge the pace of these 1m1f-1m3f races better than any other distance. That may also have some validity.

Ryan Moore: Record by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Moore has had at least 75 rides in the eight year sample period. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

As one might expect, achieving blind profits at individual courses is unlikely, but Moore has snuck into SP profit at Chelmsford and Sandown. Using BSP actually does not change things too much with only Naas additionally edging into profit and Lingfield hitting break even.

Moore's record at Goodwood offers up some interesting stats when we compare his data on favourites with other market ranks:

 

 

The ‘not favourite’ stats include plenty of runners that were near the head of the market – combining second and third favourites produced just 6 winners from 73! Goodwood obviously hosts highly competitive racing so we do have to factor that in when noting poor or modest looking results. But perhaps a crucial note is that Aidan O'Brien doesn't really target the Glorious Goodwood festival like he does other meetings. Indeed, of the 16 tracks where O'Brien has saddled 20+ runners in the months of July and August, Goodwood has the lowest each way strike rate of all. Moore rode 55 of APOB's 80 such runners during the study period.

Considering Grade 1 UK courses more broadly, punters need to be cautious when focusing strongly on one particular jockey. For example, I think the following table is quite an eye opener. It compares Moore riding favourites at Grade 1 UK tracks with favourites at  non-Grade 1 UK tracks. The Grade 1 UK tracks are Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown and York:

 

 

It should be noted that the average price of the favourites at the UK Grade 1 tracks was higher, which will have a bearing on the strike rate, but even taking that into account the numbers are still poles apart. I did check horses priced 2/1 or shorter across both types of track and the non-Grade 1 UK courses secured an 11% better strike rate then as well and much better returns of an extra 19p in the £. I rarely back favourites myself, but if there are favourite backers out there, bear those stats in mind if looking to back a Moore 'jolly'.

Before moving away from courses, the stats from these five courses where Moore did not ride at least 75 runners are actually worth sharing:

 

 

The sample sizes are not that small and the two stand out stats are the PRB figures for Wolves (0.84) and Navan (0.80) – these are exceptionally high.

Ryan Moore: Record by Trainer

Here are the trainers that Moore has ridden for at least 50 times (ordered by strike rate) – there are 11 in total:

 

  * includes prior trainer entities at the same establishment

 

Moore has a very good record when riding for the Charlton stable, especially with horses from the top three in the betting – with these runners his figures read 21 wins from 54 (SR 38.9%) for an SP profit of £34.03 (ROI +63.0%). William Haggas and Charlie Hills are also trainers that Moore has done well for and, as a general rule, when the jockey teams up with either of these trainers I would look at it as a positive.

As expected Aidan O'Brien and Sir Michael Stoute provide Moore with the vast majority of his rides, with O'Brien offering better stats in that particular battle.

We saw earlier that the overall Ireland versus UK stats differed markedly for Moore. It makes sense therefore to compare Moore’s record with O'Brien when riding in the UK compared with Ireland. The graph below plots the relative win and win/placed (each way) strike rates:

 

 

We can see a much stronger set of results for Irish races in terms of wins and places. This was to be expected, with there being a heavy selection bias when Moore catches a plane to ride, but it is still nice to see that confirmed. Losses to level stakes correlated with the strike rates meaning they were much steeper in the UK than in Ireland for this jockey trainer combination - 16.5% in the UK, 5.8% in Ireland. This equates to a difference of nearly 11 pence in the £.

Ryan Moore: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now. Here is a breakdown of Moore’s run style in terms of percentage of runners that match each of the four styles measured on geegeez.co.uk:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those you would find if you averaged out all the jockeys in the weighing room. Ryan has raced from the front on 14% of his rides which equates to roughly one in every seven. However, there is a big difference if we compare the percentage of Moore front runners in handicaps to non-handicaps. In handicaps he has taken the early lead in just 9.7% of races, in non-handicaps the figure is 16.7%.

In sprint handicaps (5-6f) Moore has led early just 20 times in 264 races, which equates to just 7.6% of the time. This stat does baffle me. As regular readers will know, front runners in sprint handicaps generally have a huge edge. Moore clearly does not think like this – if he did that figure would be much much higher.

Moore follows the usual trend of jockeys where his front runners win more often than his prominent racers who in turn out-perform mid div and those held up early. I always look at favourite run style data, too, as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding 'good horses at the front, bad ones at the back'. Here are the relative win strike rates for Moore-ridden favourites in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

Over half of his front-running favourites went onto win. It should come as no surprise therefore that one would have made a healthy profit on Moore-ridden front-running favourites, while significant losses were incurred on favourites that were held up or raced midfield early. Moore on Aidan O'Brien-trained front-running favourites have an astonishing record: 60 wins from 94 runners (SR 63.8%). If your crystal ball had predicted these runners pre-race, you would been able to secure a huge profit of £52.36 (ROI +55.7%).

Ryan "More": Extra stats and nuggets

With the main body of the article complete allow me to share a few extra statistics that may be of interest:

  1. When riding a horse making its debut in the UK, Moore has won 44 times from 333 runs (SR 13.2%) for significant losses of £143.36 (ROI -43.1%). Even when these debutants have started favourite such runners made losses of around 29p in the £. Compare this to Irish debutants who have won over 25% of the time (23 wins from 90). This is another example of the O'Brien factor.
  2. Keep an eye on horses that are having their second career start where Moore was also on board for their debut. This cohort has produced 39 winners from 111 (SR 35.1%) for a small SP profit of £3.27 (ROI +3.0%). To BSP this improves to +£18.73 (ROI +16.9%).
  3. Moore has a better strike rate at Royal Ascot compared with all other Ascot meetings combined. At Royal Ascot his strike rate is 18.6%; all other Ascot meetings combined this figure is just 12.7%. At Royal Ascot (2015-2022) backing Moore blind would have yielded a BSP profit of £44.91 (ROI +18.2%).

Ryan Moore Main Takeaways

  1. Moore has a much higher strike rate in Ireland than in the UK (the O'Brien factor).
  2. Moore's form is heavily influenced by the form of the Aidan O'Brien stable, especially when racing over the Irish Sea.
  3. Moore has excelled at middle distances of 1m1f to 1m3f for all trainers, but especially so for O'Brien.
  4. At Grade 1 UK tracks it is difficult to find value when Moore is riding.
  5. Away from Grade 1 UK tracks Moore has made a small profit on all rides sent off favourite.
  6. He has an excellent record at both Navan and Wolverhampton (samples are modest but the PRB figures are insane).
  7. He has a very good record when riding for the Charlton stable, especially if they are in the top three of the betting. Charles Hills and William Haggas are trainers for whom he has solid records also.
  8. Moore has an outstanding record on front runners that start favourite. This is especially true if trained by O'Brien.
  9. The three extra nuggets shared immediately above.

*

So that wraps up my Ryan Moore profile. There is clearly no doubting Moore's qualities as a jockey – from a personal point of view, I just wish he would race close to or up with pace more often, especially in races of a mile or less. Given his superstar profile it is difficult but, as I hope you've discovered, not impossible to squeeze some juice out of Ryan Moore's value lemon.

Until next time...

- DR

Site Issues: Update [6th June]

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6th June: Further update at the bottom of the post

Here at geegeez.co.uk we pride ourselves on being able to offer uninterrupted access to the editorial, racecards and form tools that we know you've come to rely on to find your picks. We have an outstanding record of 'uptime' - time the site is available with all services running - but this past week has been a challenge, to say the least; in what follows I'll share what has happened and is happening, and why.

Tuesday last week was a scheduled maintenance day - techie speak for something that has to be upgraded in order to ensure the future smooth running of the show. In this case, we were upgrading our server, an activity that involves migrating all files, code and databases (as well as email) from the old 'box' to the new one.

Servers have lots of settings, dials and levers and a change in just one of those can result in problems. Given that the software you know as Geegeez Gold runs to hundreds of thousands of lines of code across multiple languages and is deployed on four different servers, problems are unwelcome visitors.

As it transpired, the first issue we faced - last Tuesday - was with our own firewall (software that defends us against nefarious would-be interlopers who try to hack the site). Because our IP address (the way computers and servers identify each other on the internet) had changed, the firewall thought we were attacking ourselves! We spotted that immediately but, because the software is very good at its job, it still took a while to reconfigure things.

And that's when the 'fun' really began...

What became apparent was that the full results files - which we receive from our data supplier, Racing Post, and with which we then perform a million downstream magic tricks - were not processing; or, rather, they were processing on the separate server where that stuff happens, but that machine could not connect to the database on the new server to write them into the data store.

This, it turns out, is a problem. A big problem. Those results drive large parts of the Gold ecosystem, including Query Tool, Bet Finder, Bet Tracker and, crucially, the reports.

Previously, last weekend, I'd had the very great fortune to be in Bratislava with Carole (formerly known as Mrs Matt) while our son had a two-day sleepover at granny's. We were there to see the peerless Depeche Mode in concert on the Sunday and had got in the mood by attending a 'warm up' night in a downtown nightclub on Saturday. Loud music, lots of grog, and two hundred Eurogoth types of a similar vintage strutting, heaving and sweating in a basement dungeon. A marvellous throwback to the days of all of our youths.

By Wednesday, it was apparent that all was not well not only with the website but also with non-techie conducting a growing orchestra of disparate technicians in search of a fix. For the server problem, I mean.

Yes, I had managed to bring Covid back through the 'Nothing to Declare' channel on the way home, and it was now taking staunch residence in my respiratory system. Thankfully, I'm reasonably fit (for my age, at least) and fully vaccinated but, in spite of those pluses, Wednesday to Friday particularly - and still dragging its heels leaving me now - were not good health days.

I offer that merely as a little added context to what was already a debilitating situation: perhaps it reflects well on family health and the like that very little in life stresses me out more than site downtime, and here I was in a pickle.

At this point I want to thank all of the key people who have helped so far, and who are continuing to work through the final obstacles. The main man has been Dave - Database Dave as I very affectionately call him. He's an absolutely brilliant engineer, a lovely bloke, and he now works for a bank full time. In spite of that, Dave put in three near full-time shifts diagnosing and liaising with our hosting company's (excellent) support team to find the problem.

Heading up the support team was one of the co-owners of the hosting company, Dom, himself a database architect out of the very top drawer and a fellow of the open source group that support and maintain MariaDB, one of the world's most popular database technologies and the one we use to store and retrieve horse-y info here at geegeez.co.uk. These are the calibre of brains that were stymied.

Without getting too technical and boring - far too late, I hear at least one reader cry - the issue was nothing to do with the code. Rather, it was to do with a character set incompatibility which had been introduced by MySQL, the bossy older step-brother of MariaDB. Long and short, we needed a different database connector in order to mitigate for a cock up by the team at MySQL, the preeminent database technology in use today.

It was Friday evening, a few hours after Soul Sister's and Frankie's Oaks and a few before Auguste Rodin's and Ryan/Aidan/the lads' Derby, when we finally got all the jigsaw pieces in place. Saturday morning involved updating the connector, running a series of tests and, when they came back positive, processing the backlog of results ahead of the start of Derby day.

The sense of relief here was genuinely palpable. Imagine decrepit Grandpa Joe from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory lying in his bed just before the tale's title hero barrels in clutching the golden ticket. That's not a dissimilar scene to the one that played out in this sickly Hackney homestead!

The relief. Sometimes the burden of this gig is a bit too much. Not very often at all, to be truthful. But sometimes. This past week has been one of those times.

Anyway, we're in far better shape but we're not out of the woods yet. Neither the website nor I are clear of the impediments placed upon us early last week. The dreaded 'rona is taking its time to move on, in spite of a false dawn yesterday where I was feeling much better, and today's Morningsong was accompanied by a thumping beat inside the noggin which is yet to meaningfully subside.

Of more concern to you will be the fact that Query Tool Angles, a hugely popular part of the Gold provision, is not showing. The timing of this suggests that it's related to the fixes we applied for the results processing issue; and so we'll focus on getting that sorted today. Additionally, we're having some problems with email deliverability - on messages sent out from here - regarding our @geegeez.co.uk email addresses.

So, still some stuff to manage through, and I thank you very sincerely for your patience and understanding while we get to the bottom of them. If you're feeling charitable, you might reflect on how different life is using other data sources to find interesting horses; if not, I understand completely, and please know we're on the case.

In a day or three, this will all be a fading image in the rear view mirror as we speed forwards to the next set of racing puzzles but, for now, there remain some smaller conundrums to unravel behind the scenes.

I hope the above has offered at least a little flavour of the past week and, more than that because this is supposed to be an entertainment website, that it wasn't too boring a retrospective.

Keep well, and thank you again,

Matt

[6th June 10am]

Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water... the main challenges of last week had managed to mask a further issue, with the Query Tool server. That machine was refusing to speak to the new live server, in spite of all introductions having been made (firewall permissions having been initiated). Again, we were eventually able to get to where we needed to be and, late last night, Query Tool began catching up on a week's worth of data updates. It is now fully up to date. Hallelujah.

QT Angles, however, was refusing to play ball. Again, this issue was masked by the QT server issue, which in turn was masked by the Live server results issue. More masks than a secret policeman's ball! Anyhoo, long and short, this was a bug. The only one in the entire week-long docudrama, and we were able to trap it, squish it, and re-run the QT Angles code this morning. All is now as it should be. Sing hosannah!

Thanks again for your patience and understanding during this torrid time. I'm off for a very long lie down...

Matt

Monday Musings: The Derby’s Record-Breaking Connections

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For the past three years, observers of the British Turf have been all agog awaiting the equalling of the best-known of all Classic records – the late Lester Piggott’s nine Derby wins as a jockey, writes Tony Stafford.

He was kept in suspended animation as Aidan O’Brien was poised on eight as a trainer when outsider Serpentine collected in 2020, just 19 years after Galileo gave him the first victory. When Piggott died on May 29 last year, the record, to his still very active mind, remained intact.

Well, it isn’t any longer and, while Saturday’s extraordinary victory by winter favourite but 2000 Guineas flop Auguste Rodin has prompted the record-compilers to regard Aidan as the joint record-holder, two men actually share the honours with ten.

The first Derby was won by Diomed in 1780. His owner, Sir Charles Bunbury, famously the man who lost the toss with the then Earl of Derby to have the destined-to-be great race named after him, won it again 33 years later.

Others in between enjoyed a quicker repeat win, and sometimes as the decades and centuries wore on, with more than two. Among its winners were kings, princes, noblemen of all levels and Prime Ministers, mostly past. Never would any of those great gentlemen of the realm have considered that a young man born and bred in East Ham, East London would – with his partner – eclipse them all, and within a remarkable 22-year span. Aidan does have nine, but in between, Pour Moi, trained by Andre Fabre, makes ten.

When the first Coolmore triumvirate, instigated more than half a century ago, and founded on Robert Sangster’s Vernon’s Pools money, Vincent O’Brien’s training brilliance, and Vincent’s son-in-law John Magnier’s all-round knowledge of horses and business acumen, was beginning to wane – Royal Academy’s 1990 Breeders’ Cup Mile win under Lester was the final positive - it fell on Magnier to take charge.

Robert had the expense of Manton to take precedence; Vincent was about to retire and son David, who won the Derby with Secreto six years earlier when El Gran Senor was supposed to win for the team – he got the show back on the road in Secreto’s absence at The Curragh, was out of love with training and went to be a wine grower in Europe.

With Vincent leaving, it needed somebody special to take his place at Ballydoyle. Many were surprised at Magnier’s selection, which fell on a young man who had only recently taken out a licence.

A former amateur rider with Jim Bolger, Aidan O’Brien (no relation to Vincent) had joined his wife Anne-Marie (nee Crowley) in her training base where she had followed her father Joe and instantly become champion jumps trainer in Ireland.

Still in her early 20’s, she promptly retired to have their first child Joseph, and Aidan took up the reins, following her as champion over jumps and attracting Magnier’s shrewd notice. Aidan had started with Bolger when Tony McCoy was a young apprentice and Willie Mullins was also in the team.

Even earlier, at least 45 years ago when he was based in White’s Gate, Phoenix Park, Bolger told me that his ambition was to train a stable entirely of his own home-bred horses. How remarkable that he has pretty much achieved that aim and at the same time has been responsible for putting the three most influential individuals (himself and Magnier apart) in UK and Irish racing – the best flat trainer, the outstanding jumps trainer, and the best jump jockey of all time – on the righteous, unwavering path.

Bolger’s wish came so close to happening over the years, brought closer when he sent out homebred Teofilo, then acquired at auction New Approach, both unbeaten champion two-year-old winners of the Dewhurst from the early crops of Galileo, the latter winning the Derby in 2008. These two came at the start of a remarkable spell of five wins in six years. O’Brien has a total of eight, six coming from the next nine years.

It was only the astounding prices commanded that compelled the former accountant to swerve (slightly) from that ambition and accommodate Sheikh Mohammed’s interest. It has ensured that his family’s Redmondstown stud in his home Co Wexford, run by granddaughter Clare Manning (daughter of Una and Kevin Manning) has the resources to continue to thrive.

If identifying the training talent was important to John Magnier, it was even more fundamental to ensure a stream of investment to maintain and, as it proved, improve on what had gone before. Michael Tabor was already owning horses with Neville Callaghan, enjoying big-race success with the likes of Danehill Dancer and Danetime, both sons of Danehill.

Danehill Dancer eventually became a successful stallion at Coolmore and was a great producer and broodmare sire.  Meanwhile Tabor was minded to invest with the great US handler and former college basketball coach, D Wayne Lukas, king of the Breeders’ Cup. They promptly won the 1995 Kentucky Derby with Thunder Gulch.

I remember a call the following morning from his then close associate Victor Chandler saying: “Unbelievable. It could only have happened to Michael.” Previously one of the leading figures in racecourse betting activity, and about to cash in his off-course Arthur Prince betting shop empire, this was success right out of left field.

As with all successful men, he didn’t marvel at it, unbelievable as it clearly was to those who knew him best, but he made it a starting point, and while finding his ally in racing with Magnier and Coolmore, his business interests also burgeoned.

His greatest pride is in his family. Son Ashley Tabor-King is founder and boss of the massive and ever-expanding Global broadcasting company which has an on-going programme of projects aimed at giving a helping hand to young people, many from under-privileged backgrounds.

Meanwhile, within the Coolmore family, it wasn’t long before the dividends started. Michael timed his membership with the first Derby success for the trainer and for Galileo, by Sadler’s Wells, son of Northern Dancer, the stallion John Magnier and O’Brien senior convinced Robert Sangster that they had to invest in from US auctions if they wanted to compete on the world stage. Nijinsky and Sadler’s Wells were among the first.

Two equine generations on, recently deceased Galileo is having a similar overwhelming influence on the breed. His son Frankel has developed into the leading stallion for providing Classic horses although, as ever, breeding needs to outcross, and Auguste Rodin is the product of the fantastic multiple Group 1 mare Rhododendron (Galileo – Pivotal mare cross) by the multiple Japanese champion, Deep Impact. Now the Tabor ownership figure stands after Saturday at a mind-boggling ten – from just 23 renewals of the great race.

All through that time, the measured way Michael, John and their long-term associate Derrick Smith – in for the last eight – have modestly taken the success – and respected the unique nature of a race founded 243 years ago and which is yet to have been stopped by Wars, Covid and even would-be horse-racing-ending Animal Rising protesters.

Rightly, the Derby Roll of Honour is a short-cut to an understanding of the history of the sport from its days when a few dozen rich men matched their charges against each other up to the business where massive pots of country wealth have been grafted, with the aim of making their rulers pre-eminent in the annals of turf.

The winner of the Derby is a unique beast. He needs the speed to stay in touch with the pace and again to settle any lingering doubts as they go for home. He requires the adaptability to cope with the bends, cambers, rises and descents over these 12 furlongs of historic Surrey downland, and the resolution and temperament to handle the extraneous demands of a massive crowd that challenges their still only part-developed strength and character.

Derby horses are far from the finished article, but the race has proven to be the perfect test over time. Aidan O’Brien knows what’s needed so, while everyone was cogitating as to whether he was crazy or not after the unexpected flop of Auguste Rodin in the 2000 Guineas, the trainer himself was adamant that he was special; and his word is his bond for Messrs Magnier, Tabor, Smith, their sons and the other members of the ownership team such as Westerberg, the racing operation of auto magnate, Georg von Opel.

I had a fabulous trip with Harry Taylor and Alan Newman to Ballydoyle/Coolmore, I think four years ago now, met Galileo at Coolmore and had a nice look at the O’Brien team on the gallops. The lot we saw – second I think – consisted of 70 and all the jockeys, which included Adrian Maguire and Dean Gallagher to name but two – were instantly identified by name by the trainer.

Likewise, the horses. Afterwards in a quiet moment, I asked Aidan if he ever betted. Now excuse me if I have the number wrong but I’m pretty sure what he said was: “I did at one time when I was with Jim Bolger. My first 15 bets all won. The next one lost and I’ve never had another one since!”

I truly believe no other trainer would have dared run the horse that finished so far back at Newmarket, and Roger Varian for one is wishing he didn’t. Roger was described as looking “gutted” when visiting the boys in the box on Saturday; no wonder, for otherwise his King Of Steel, a 66/1 half-length runner-up on stable and seasonal debut, would have been a near five-length Derby hero.

Varian, who won the St Leger for Derrick Smith’s son Paul with Kingston Hill, is sure to gain further attention for, like O’Brien, he was fulsome in the constant encouragement of his colt’s chances, despite the massive odds.

Aidan might not be a betting man nowadays. The three main Coolmore owners certainly have been. In each case, though, they have transcended their earlier status to the extent that, thanks to Aidan O’Brien, their place in the fabric of the English Turf will be forever as the most important players in the history of the Derby. Nothing more, nothing less!

  • TS

Roving Reports: The Month of May

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Ah, the month of May. Those who like their speed of the four-wheeled rather than four-legged variety will tell you that means the Indy 500 and Monaco Grand Prix, writes David Massey. I haven't been to Monaco this month, but I did stay for five races at Market Rasen the other week, and that's very much the same.

For me, May means a first visit to York and in this case, a second one, last week, too. The initial one was for the Dante meeting and for all it's one of the summer Festivals it's not a particularly well-attended one and the Wednesday of the meeting was one of the quietest days I've known at the place.

That's not to say it was totally dead: business was okay but no more than that. It did give me a chance to have a quick chat to one or two people, including our esteemed editor, Matt Bisogno, looking like a million dollars in loose change in his suit and sunglasses [too kind, cheque in the post! - Ed.], and my good friend Emily. Emily and I have two things in common - a love of racing and a love of The Smiths, and the two of us went to see Morrissey in concert at Blackpool last year. I've not seen her since so it was great to catch up. Speaking of Blackpool, a long-term reader of mine, known only to me as Blackpool Jezza, introduced himself, too. Always great to meet the people that read this nonsense!

The racing? Well, it started off one of those days where, despite the big prices, punters seemed to have been told the winners as they came in. First race winner Scampi was the worst result for me on my side of the book, and Bielsa was no better in the sprint handicap.

As ever at York, a bit of thought goes into the winner's music as they are brought back in, and "Leeds, Leeds, Leeds" comes over the PA as Bielsa is brought back in. We'll also get a blast of Leicester City fans as The Foxes returns after winning the Dante the following day. I'm less sure about football chanting as a suitable recompense for winning a Classic trial, but there we go.

Frankie. He can't pack up soon enough as far as the bookmakers are concerned. He could be riding a Skegness kids donkey and I guarantee you a dozen people would still back it, convinced he could somehow get it home in front. Soul Sister wins the Musidora by an easy four lengths and the only solace I can take is that, if this had been a Saturday card, the payout queue would have stretched back to Tadcaster.

Business is a little better on the Thursday and better again on the Friday, and results fairly kind. The biggest bet I take over the three days is a monkey on Broome in the Yorkshire Cup, and that never looks like copping. That rather shows level of business over the three days. Indeed, the moaning from the rails firms suggests that the ring was arguably better business than they saw.

York last Saturday was much better business. A two-hour pick (which means we take our positions at 11.35, not long after the course has actually opened the gates) meant an early start, but once prices go up just after 12 it feels busier.

There's an Irish band playing, but I have to say, with sun beating down, people out enjoying the day with a pint, I'm not sure whether The Fields Of Athenry is quite cutting it. If they were belting out a few Pogues numbers to get them going then fair enough, but whether a song about famine sets the right tone is open to debate.

Anyway, the first winner, Doctor Khan Junior, goes totally unbacked on my side of things, and I can't ever remember the first race at York throwing up a skinner.

By the way, how did we miss that? A Geoff Oldroyd winner in the Bond colours at York on the day the Reg Bond Handicap takes place at the end of the day? As my mate Joe pointed out to me as it sailed past the post in front, jabbing his finger at me, "as a tipster, isn't it your job to notice these things?" It is, and I hang my head in shame. We could have had a 28-1 winner if I'd been a bit more on the ball.

One thing you don't need on a Saturday is a withdrawn horse. The only way it could be worse is if it's the favourite. Well, The Line provides us with that nightmare scenario in the next. A 45p Rule 4 gets punters irate enough, but as ever, the announcement of the withdrawal gets totally lost over the PA and creates confusion.

How many times do I have to say this? To all racecourses - USE YOUR BIG SCREENS WHEN THESE OCCASIONS OCCUR. SHOW your customers what has happened, don't tell them, because half of them can't hear. As I write this on the Wednesday after the meeting, six of my punters are yet to collect their money back on the non-runner and I guess they aren't going to now.

At the same time I'm trying to explain to punters what's happened, I'm also fielding a call from Chester as our man at the track can't get wifi and can't take bets as a result. So I've punters chewing one ear off and a man with IT issues (and doesn't understand how wifi works) in the other. It wasn't the most fun 15 minutes of the day, let me tell you.

No sooner have I sorted his tech problem out than my own system goes down. Now I can't take bets either. I restart the system and it works, but only for a couple of minutes before it all goes down again. This is going to be a long job. I'm losing valuable betting time and punters are heading elsewhere. When I'm finally up and running they're going in the stalls. My take on that race is a third of what I took on the previous one. It's not going well.

River Of Stars is actually a good result in the Bronte and Starnberg an even better one in the handicap that follows. The laptop has another moment and basically I think everything is overheating, so I try and keep it all in the shade, which does seem to help. I'm overheating too, so it's off to the bar whilst the race is on to get some iced water.

You do not need to be a genius to work out what everyone wants to back in the last. Yes, to a man and a woman, Yorkshire, the short-priced and appropriately-named favourite, is the one that they want. When that's sunk without trace, I know it'll be a quick pack away after the last and we're in the car and heading home within half an hour. It must have been a good day as the boss comes out of the BP filling station with two Magnums for the journey home.

Next stop is the Derby. I have a feeling there may be things to report back with, if the news is to be believed. It'll be interesting to see what effect the train strike will have, if any. I'll tell you next time. I'm off to listen to some Chas 'N Dave to get me in the mood...

- DM

Jockey Profiles: Hollie Doyle

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The first in a new series of articles looking at jockeys, this one will be focusing on Hollie Doyle, writes Dave Renham.

Hollie is still just 26 and has risen up the ranks quickly. She began as an apprentice at the Richard Hannon yard in 2014 and, by 2017, had ridden out her claim. Incidentally, in 2016, while still a five pound claimer, she rode a 25/1 winner for a geegeez.co.uk syndicate, Table Manners trained by Wilf Storey at Newcastle.

The 2019 campaign was her first real milestone when she rode 116 winners, in doing so setting a new record for the number of winners achieved by a female jockey in Britain. The following year, 2020, was another big one with her first win at Royal Ascot, her first Group race success, a win on Champions Day at Ascot (the first female to achieve this) swiftly followed in the next race by her first Group 1 triumph, aboard Glen Shiel. Since then Hollie has continued to go from strength to strength and is unquestionably one of the top jockeys around.

**

How to Use Profiler

Normally when gathering data for my articles on Geegeez, I use Query Tool or Draw Analyser or Pace analyser, or a combination of the three.  However, for this piece I obtained a good chunk of the data from the Profiler tool. You can find Profiler by clicking on the ‘Tools’ menu item. Once there, you will be presented with this somewhat sparse screen, and an invitation to "Enter a horse, trainer, jockey or sire name to begin":

 

 

As that instruction suggests, Profiler allows us to drill down into the record of any horse, trainer, jockey or sire. It is the same principle for each research area, but if wanting to research a jockey such as Hollie Doyle, we need to type their name into the Search bar at the top, and click the 'Jockeys tab'. This will display the following:

 

 

Clicking the 'Profile' button populates the 17 categories highlighted in blue in the first screen shot and thus creates a huge web page full of data. As the first variable in the list, the going stats will be displayed at the top and for Hollie Doyle’s search they came up as follows:

 

 

As can be seen we have a wealth of data, both win and each way. We also have a PRB figure (percentage of rivals beaten) which is an excellent ‘extra’ stat. Having data for 17 different categories all on one page is extremely useful.

For this piece I needed to adjust the Date Range filters because I wanted to look specifically at the years from 2015 to 2022. I also wanted to look at both flat (turf) and all weather racing so I set the filters as follows: (N.B. these filters were in place for the Going data shown above):

 

 

There are a number of other filters so, for example, you can look at just handicap data if you wish, just the wins, and so on. Also, we can drill into National Hunt racing data if we want to. It should be noted that when using the Profiler, it returns both UK and Irish results combined.

OK, so I have my parameters set, now it's time to dig into the stats. Before sharing my findings I should mention that as well as using the Profiler Tool for this research, I have used other sources,  including Query Tool. In all the tables profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP; I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

 

Hollie Doyle: Overall Record

Let us first look at Doyle’s baseline figures across every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

This is a thoroughly decent record: her A/E index of 0.91 is above the ‘average’ figure for all jockeys, which is 0.86. Likewise, her overall PRB figure of 0.54 is nicely above the 0.50 average mark. Losses of around 16 pence in the £ to SP convert to close to breaking even (losses of under 2p in the £) at exchange SP.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Year

I first wish to breakdown Doyle's stats by year. Here is a breakdown showing win percentage (or Strike Rate (SR%) if you prefer):

 

 

We can easily ignore the first year in the sample, 2015, as Hollie only had 39 rides in that year; and we can see how it often goes for a top jockey rising out of the apprentice ranks: a steady start launches into high strike rates as the claim's value is utilised, followed by a more challenging period post-riding out the claim, before blossoming into a top tier rider.

Hollie's profile mimics this perfectly: she rode out her claim in 2017 before a season of consolidation - more rides but fewer winners in 2018 - after which the last four years have seen her highest strike rates. Not only have the last four years seen her highest strike rates, but her most consistent ones too. 2019 to 2022 have seen strike rates within 1.3% of each other.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Distance

A look at her record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands and, again, I am comparing win strike rates:

 

 

The highest strike rate has occurred in the longer distance events (1m 7f or more); but, having said that, the data set is much smaller (just 199 races). Compare that to the 7f to 1 mile results which come from 1920 races, almost ten times as many. The vast majority of Doyle’s rides come in races of 1 mile or less – roughly 69% of all her rides have been over these shorter distances. This, in fact, perfectly mirrors the percentage of races which are run at a mile or shorter, which is unsurprising, I guess.

In a previous article on jockeys and run style I highlighted Doyle as a jockey that does well in handicaps on front runners; in sprints (5 to 6f) and also races of 7f to 1 mile. I will look in more detail at her run style data later.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Profiler gives a breakdown of performance by starting price splitting it up into seven price brackets. I have taken Hollie’s record straight from that table:

 

 

If you had backed all Doyle’s mounts focusing on the shorter end of the price (17/2 or shorter), you would have lost only 5p in the £. To Betfair SP though, that would have turned into a small profit of just over 4p in £. However, the value to be had with these runners has largely evaporated now she's a relative household name. In terms of very big priced runners (28/1 or bigger) only a handful have won. These have produced significant losses to SP and even to BSP losses stand at a weighty 35p in the £.

Hollie Doyle: Record by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Hollie Doyle has had at least 75 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically in the table below:

 

 

I want to mention that course strike rates can sometimes be slightly misleading due to the average field sizes being vastly different from one track to another. For example, in the past eight seasons, the average field size (all races) at Ascot has been just under 12; contrast this with Ffos Las whose average has been around 7.6. Hence, using solely strike rates when comparing Ascot  with Ffos Las is not a statistically sensible play. I am not saying that a course strike rate is without use but, as with any single piece of information, it is useful to combine it with others.

The two stats that most interest me from a course perspective are the A/E indices and the PRB figures. Doyle’s figures for Yarmouth stand out with an A/E index of 1.30 and a PRB figure of 0.58. In addition the strike rate is high and she has made decent profits to SP. Her profits to BSP stand at an even more impressive +£90.55 (ROI +65.6%), and these figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners. It is also noteworthy that she has ridden winners at Yarmouth for a good number of different trainers (21 in total), so it is not one or two specific trainers providing all of the winning rides. Sticking with Yarmouth for one more stat, when Doyle has been riding a horse priced 8/1 or shorter she has secured 28 win from 88 rides. This equates to an excellent strike rate of 32%.

Before moving away from courses, one course that did not make the list due to having had only 46 rides was Pontefract. The stats, though, are very strong despite this smallish sample – 14 wins (SR 30.4%) for an SP profit of £22.19 (ROI +48.2%). A/E index of 1.55; PRB figure of 0.58.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Trainer

Some punters love to follow certain trainer / jockey combinations and, although I don't generally, I think certain combos do produce some betting opportunities that represent value. Here are the trainers for whom Doyle has ridden at least 50 times (ordered by strike rate):

 

 

As you can see, Archie Watson provides Doyle with a high proportion of her rides. Although she has not made a profit on the 939 spins in that sample, she has done on his more fancied runners. To wit, horses priced 4/1 or shorter have provided the Doyle/Watson combination with 150 wins from 418 runners (SR 35.9%) showing a small SP profit of £14.07 (ROI +3.4%). To BSP this improves to +£40.68 (ROI +9.7%).

Her record with Alan King is excellent; not just because of the profit figure, but because the PRB is exceptionally high at 0.64. One other combo to mention is Hollie with the Gosden stable. The results are not in the table because they have only combined on 36 horses but, of these, 13 have won (SR 36.1%) for an excellent SP profit of £32.32 (ROI +89.8%). Where the Doyle/King PRB is impressive, the Doyle/Gosden figures trump them, standing at 0.69 (i.e. 69% of all rivals beaten). I think it would be worth keeping a close eye on the Gosden and King stables this season (and beyond), looking out for any Hollie Doyle booking.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record with Days since last run / horse layoff

A unique feature of the Profiler Tool (compared with the Query Tool) is the fact it gives you data for days since the horse last ran. Doyle’s figures are as follows:

 

 

As we can see Hollie has made a profit on horses whose last run was within a week of their prior start. As a general rule, my assumption, as with many others, has been that horses with shorter breaks outperform horses that are off the track for longer. This is the first time I have seen any PRB figures for any fitness based variable such as this. It is interesting, and pleasing to see the sliding scale from 0.61 down to 0.41. These findings give me the impetus to check PRB figures for a bigger group of runners to see if the same sliding scale is repeated. I am guessing it is – if so it might become the basis for an article in the future.

 

Hollie Doyle: Draw Awareness

Another first for me: this is the first time I have tried to drill down into this type of idea. Essentially punters, bookies, trainers and jockeys are aware of draw biases. Some will over- or under-estimate bias, but one would hope that seasoned jockeys understand the effect of the draw at most courses better than most. It is clearly a difficult area to research but I thought I had enough data for Hollie at one particular course, namely Kempton, to try to do this. My idea was simple: I wanted to compare her record in 8 or more runner handicaps at Kempton over 5f to 1 mile, with other jockeys, purely from a draw perspective. Kempton over these four distances (5f, 6f, 7f & 1m) offers a low draw edge and hence I wanted to compare Doyle’s record when drawn 1 to 4 (the best four draws) with all other jockeys. To do this, I decided to calculate the relevant PRB figures as these I would assume to be the most accurate, as they create bigger data sets than, say, using win and each way data.

Hollie had over 100 qualifying handicap rides when drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over these Kempton distances and her PRB figure was 0.60. The combined figure for all other jockeys is 0.55. This leads me to conclude, at least from these Kempton stats, that she has good draw awareness: she has performed notably above the norm when her horses have been well drawn at Kempton. I did check the non-handicap figures at Kempton using the same parameters – in these cases, she had fewer qualifying rides than in handicaps (44), but her PRB figure was a very impressive 0.63, the overall non handicap jockey figure stands at 0.53.

This is clearly a challenging area to research in great depth from an individual jockey perspective, due to small course and distance data sets. For example, you probably would not get enough individual data at Chester unless a jockey had ridden there regularly for 20 years or more, as that track does not host many meetings over a 12 month period. Kempton, however, has so many race meetings each year this is a course that lends itself to this avenue of research. Something else to maybe write about more in the future?

One further caveat worth mentioning with this type of research is the fact that there is some selection bias in the quality of top riders' mounts compared with the average.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Run Style

I mentioned earlier a recent article in which I touched upon Doyle’s positive record on front runners in handicaps at the sprint distances of 5f and 6f, but also at 7f and 1m. Well, Hollie's record from the front is actually extremely good across the board – handicaps / non-handicaps, and any distance. Yes, she has a higher strike rate on front runners running over shorter distances, but in all races of 1m1f or more her strike rate on these pace setters still hits just over 20% (A/E 1.10). This ranks her 9th out of all jockeys currently riding in the UK in terms of win strike rate (150 front running rides or more over 1m1f+ from 2015 to 2022), 12th if including Irish jockeys. In terms of A/E index she lies 11th (UK), 15th (UK and Ireland). For the record the average win strike for ALL jockeys over 1m1f+ stands at 15.6%.

Here is a breakdown of Hollie Doyle's run style performance across ALL races:

 

 

She has an excellent close to one win in four record with front runners, whereas with hold up horses this drops markedly to less than one win in every 12. The A/E figures correlate as the following chart shows:

 

 

As regular readers of my articles will know front runners have an edge at a majority of courses and distances, so the patterns seen for Doyle should come as no real surprise. That said, her figures are well above the norm over all distances, and if she is booked to ride a horse that often front runs, that ought to be seen as a double positive in cases where the pace map indicates an even tempo or, especially, Hollie's mount is the probable lone speed angle.

Before winding up the run style stats, let me share her record when riding the favourite:

 

 

More evidence, as if it was really needed, about the importance of early track position.

[As a side note, using favourite in run style analysis removes any selection bias regarding 'good horses at the front, bad ones at the back'. In spite of this levelling of the playing field, one invariably sees this type of strong front of field bias. Keep this in mind if you're currently backing plenty of fancied horses with a hold up run style!]

 

Some Extra Hollie Doyle Nuggets

With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you a few extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:

  1. When Hollie retains the ride after winning last time, her record reads 67 wins from 310 (SR 21.6%). Backing all runner to BSP would have yielded a profit of £31.12 (ROI +10.0%).
  2. Horses that finished second last time have a good record with Doyle on board. Of the 585 qualifiers, 139 have won (SR 23.8%) for a BSP profit of £74.03 (ROI +12.7%).
  3. In very small fields (2 to 4 runners) Doyle has secured 54 wins from 142 rides (SR 38.0%) for a BSP profit of £65.27 (ROI +46.0%). She made significant profits if backing to Industry SP, too (+£53.79).
  4. In Class 1 races, Hollie has done well if the horse has been fancied (defined as priced 10/1 or shorter). 25 wins from 109 (SR 22.9%) for a BSP profit of £26.29 (ROI +24.1%).

 

Hollie Doyle Main Takeaways

  1. Doyle has been extremely consistent in the past four years and as I am penning this piece her strike rate for 2023 is above her norm at 15.8%.
  2. When riding more fancied runners (17/2 or less) Hollie has made a small profit to BSP, though that may be due to historical data so some caution is advised.
  3. She has an excellent record at both Yarmouth and Pontefract.
  4. Doyle should be noted when riding for Alan King or the Gosden stable and, also, when riding for Archie Watson look out for shorter priced horses (4/1 or less).
  5. If Hollie is on board a horse that had run in the past seven days it tends to be a positive.
  6. At Kempton in races of 1m or less when drawn 4 or lower she has performed well above the norm.
  7. Doyle is an excellent rider from the front at all distances.
  8. The four "extra nuggets" shared immediately above.

*

There are plenty of Hollie Doyle stats to get to grips with in the above: lots of positives, and the occasional negative, too. Hollie should continue to give us plenty of potential betting opportunities in the coming weeks, months and, I hope, years. I really rate her as one of the very best around and, more importantly, the stats tend to agree!

- DR

Monday Musings: Aidan

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When Aidan O’Brien turned up at Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas three weekends ago, hopes were high in the Ballydoyle team that the stable would be collecting a tenth success in the first Classic of the year, writes Tony Stafford.

He had the favourite – the Vertem (ahem) Futurity winner, Auguste Rodin – of which nothing short of a comfortable victory was being entertained, as well as last year’s European Champion juvenile - by a massive 5lb margin - in Little Big Bear.

The former wound up finishing last of the 14 runners behind Chaldean, Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman, with Auguste Rodin 12th, both colts more than 20 lengths behind the Frankie Dettori-ridden winner.

Aidan declared it a non-event for his two colts, citing early scrimmaging involving them both and Royal Scotsman. He maintained the firm Derby objective for Auguste – the race that was envisaged as the second leg of his ambitious Triple Crown attempt - while announcing Little Big Bear would lick his wounds and go sprinting.

So, what of the Irish 2,000 this weekend just gone? Little Big Bear did indeed go sprinting and, with Ryan Moore busily employed for three days at the Curragh from Friday to yesterday, the peripatetic Signor Dettori eagerly offered his services.

If Frankie is one p- word, Aidan and the Coolmore boys are another – pragmatic in the extreme. In the six-furlong Group 2 Sandy Hill over six furlongs at Haydock Park, last year’s champion two-year-old was ranged among others against the 114-rated Bradsell, super-fast Royal Ascot winner for Archie Watson.

For a few strides coming into the last 300 yards, Bradsell briefly suggested a tussle might be forthcoming, but once Little Big Bear got Frankie’s serious message through the reins, the result was stark. Bradsell didn’t just go under, he collapsed. The easy way is to say he didn’t stay – although probably he didn’t and the move back to five furlongs is sensible - but the truth is, he was humiliated by his rival.

As striking as was this powerful son of No Nay Never’s acceleration, the determined way runner-up Shouldhavebeenaring from the Richard Hannon stable managed to hold the deficit at one and a half lengths, was almost as impressive. He had drawn eight lengths clear of Bradsell at the line.

Now the Commonwealth Cup/ July Cup summer double must be Little Big Bear’s programme, and I’m sure Aidan and the boys, not to mention Ryan who will have been licking his lips in anticipation, will have a wary eye on the Hannon dark horse in both.

Of course, this coming weekend there are bigger fish to fry in the Derby for the other member of the Guineas non-eventers. So, what did Aidan contrive to restore stable honour faced with the 2-3 from Newmarket in Hi Royal and Royal Scotsman, representing Kevin Ryan and Paul and Oliver Cole respectively?

It probably didn’t take too much scrutiny among the 50 Classically bred colts in the Ballydoyle stables (*source Horses in Training 2023) to identify the next star cab off the rank. Step forward Paddington, actually and bizarrely not listed in the HIT team, a winner second time out last autumn by five lengths in a maiden.

For his return right at the start of the new season in March, Aidan chose a handicap at Naas in which the Irish assessor had obligingly allotted a mark of 97 for the 20-runner Curragh romp the previous September.

Next came a Listed race, won by a length and a half from stable-companion Drumroll over the course and distance of Saturday’s Classic. Drumroll finished second past the post again in yesterday’s Gallinule Stakes (Group 3) but having been bumped a couple of times by the original winner, was awarded the race.

O’Brien found two additional candidates for the colts’ Classic. First was Age Of Kings, a Kingman colt who had been some way behind Bradsell in last year’s Coventry Stakes, but later Group placed in Ireland, before off the track for almost a year. He beat one home.

More intriguing was Cairo, a son of US sire Quality Road and as such regarded as suitable to challenge for the UAE Derby on dirt on Dubai World Cup night.

This presumably was to have been the prelude to a tilt at the Kentucky Derby. He started favourite at Meydan but faded away to 10th of 13 and any US challenge never materialised.

Instead, he turned up on Saturday as back up to Paddington and in typical Aidan O’Brien style ran on to complete the exacta, just ahead of Hi Royal, who had a spirited set-to with the winner until cracking in the last 100 yards.

In a welcome return to the big time, veteran handler Paul Cole, now with training duties and recognition shared with son Oliver, has a horse of real ability. Royal Scotsman had extricated himself from the early muddle with the two Coolmore stars at HQ to stay on for a very good third.

As Hi Royal had been rated only 92 as he entered the stalls in the 2000 Guineas (115 after), starting at 125/1, Royal Scotsman was expected to reverse the Newmarket form, and was the 6/4 favourite on the Curragh, but he was never in contention under Jamie Spencer and finished a disappointing ninth.

Now Paddington surely will be the number one from O’Brien to challenge Chaldean in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when Brian Meehan’s French 2000 narrow runner-up Isaac Shelby could also be in the line-up.

The Coolmore partners clearly have a high regard for Siyouni, sire of Paddington and two of their highest-profile young stallions in Sotsass and St Mark’s Basilica. Paddington has elbowed his way into the top table of three-year-old colts from last year’s European Free Handicap.

Of the five top rated colts and one filly last year, four of the colts including the “scrimmaging trio” as well as the winner Chaldean, were all on show on the first Saturday in May. The exception was Blackbeard, retired to stud after a busy campaign in the top juvenile races over six furlongs, for Group 1 wins in the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes for Coolmore.

The filly in question was of course the narrowly beaten 1000 Guineas favourite Tahiyra, just outlasted by Godolphin’s Mawj with the rest well beaten off. Dermot Weld said before Newmarket that he wished he had two more weeks with her after she had been held up by the wet spring.

Now with the required extra time, she was fully primed for her home 1000 Guineas, and was the overwhelming favourite. The Newmarket race had proved a disappointment for the O’Brien team, with Meditate not matching last year’s form, but she was back in full cry yesterday, Ryan Moore always having her well placed. They went for home in the straight, but Tahiyra and Chris Hayes always had her in their sights and the Weld filly won comfortably.

Jim Bolger has yet another potential star on his hands in the Vocalised filly Comhra, a 150/1 shot after two unplaced runs in Group 3 trials this spring, but a closing third here. In another two strides she would have been second and so fast did she finish, I doubt Bolger will have any fear of taking on the first two at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes.

Two home wins, including the 2000 and one Group 2 race at Haydock, made for a great Saturday. Four wins yesterday, all with Ryan in the saddle, made for a veritable feast, highlighted by Luxembourg’s tremendous performance in holding off Sir Michael Stoute’s top-class Bay Bridge in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, a second Group 1 of the weekend. Favourite here was last year’s French 2000 and Prix du Jockey Club winner Vadeni, 11/8 with a previous run behind him, but he was a well-beaten fifth yesterday as the front two drew clear.

Vadeni had been a close third to Luxembourg in last September’s Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown before running a wonderful second to Alpinista in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Luxembourg, clearly improving, promises many more successes. And if Auguste Rodin does win the Derby, a season which was initially viewed with trepidation by the Coolmore partners could develop into a vintage one, even by their and O’Brien’s standards.

One notable absentee on Derby Day – apart from me, owing to an unexpected domestic issue – is Sir Rupert Mackeson, yes, of the brewing family, but more significantly, the man who for many years has run the bookshop on Britain’s racecourses. He was a fixture at Epsom’s summer meeting and a couple of years ago, I spotted a lovely water colour on his stall which Derby winning owner Khalifa Dasmal (Shaamit) was delighted to acquire.

Rupert has struggled manfully with physical difficulties for many years, yet even approaching his 80’s he remains as mentally sharp as he ever was. I helped him on his stand at Ascot for a couple of days one September a few years back and very much enjoyed the experience, marvelling at his knowledge of his subject.

Over the years, he became very friendly with Lester Piggott, who regularly visited the Epsom pitch on Derby Day. Had he still been in his old Derby Day location, he had planned a Lester Piggott Oaks/Derby exhibition, with many items signed by the King of Epsom. This will now be located at Weston Super Frames, 17 Locking Road, Weston super-Mare BS23 3UY. I hope it goes well.

-TS

Gold Upgrades: May 2023

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It's been a while since we've released any new features to Gold, so I'm excited to share a couple of small - but awesome - upgrades with you. The first may be imperceptible (but probably won't be), the second is niche, and the third is a new rating... let's get to it.

1 Remember settings

You know how you always do the same thing when you go to the cards to see the info that's right for you? For me, this means setting the draw tab to 'Actual' and PRB/PRB3/PRB in the three dropdowns; and setting the Pace tab heat map to 'Place%'; and incessantly re-sorting the Instant Expert grid when I change one of the top of the page variables.

Well, no more... yay!

Why?

Because we've introduced some 'local memory' improvements so that things remain as you set them up if you're using the same machine as the one you set them up on. Here's what I mean: let's say you, like me, look at PRB views on the 'Draw' tab.

 

Up until now, if you were logged out or otherwise left the site, you'd have to re-select the parameters as you like them. But, from now, you'll see those settings remembered and appearing as a matter of course when you go to the tab.

Likewise, that minor irritation of having to re-sort the Instant Expert table after every variable amend:

 

Not any more. Now you can change anything at the top of the Instant Expert and the grid will remain in the order you had it. Phew, what a relief!

 

We've added 'remember' functions to all tabs, which will certainly save me a goodly few clicks most days, and hopefully ease your transit around the cards a little, too.

N.B. This is the case if you're using the same machine/browser and don't clear your cache/cookies. Even if you do clear cache from time to time, like me, it's still only an occasional faff to redefine your parameters. And that will remind you of when you had to do it every time and make you grateful 😉

 

2 Added PRB to Pace 'Heat Map' view and table

I've wanted this for a loooong time. Trying to infer the impact of the combination of draw and run style can be really difficult when the sample sizes are small, which is why I use 'Place %' rather than 'Win %' - because place percent gives meaning to each of the placed horses, whereas win percent only does that for the first one home.

Let's say we only have four ten-horse races in the sample size. That would mean 12 placed horses and just four winning horses. Obviously, then, the heat map could be skewed especially when looking at win percent.

PRB - Percentage of Rivals Beaten - assigns value to every runner in every race, aside from the last horse home whose value is 0 (0% of rivals beaten). In our fictional four race sample above, we now have 40 (or 36 if you exclude Tail End Charlie's) scored horses from which to form some sort of perspective.

Anyway, PRB is better in my view, especially when looking at almost any flat turf race (the all-weather sample sizes tend to be much larger and, therefore, more meaningful in traditional win/place strike rate terms).

 

Note the PRB option in the dropdown box top right and, directly below that, a new PRB column in the pace table. This will immediately be my 'de facto' setting; and, of course, in this brave new world that setting will be remembered!

3 Introducing Performance Ratings

Everyone loves a rating, right? Here at geegeez we have a fair number these days, what with official ratings, Racing Post Ratings, Topspeed, Peter May's private ratings, and our sectional upgrade figures - and that's assuming you don't use our ratings tool to create and save your own 'R1' numbers! But these Performance Ratings are pretty nifty and I think they'll add value for some users at least. What are they? I'm glad you asked...

These are the BHA's own race figures. They differ from Official Rating (OR) in that they are a measure of the level to which a horse has been judged to have run in a specific race. So, for a horse going up the handicap, OR and the Performance Rating (PR) will be the same.

Here's Sayifyouwill, a last time out winner off 79 - she was raised 3lb to 82 for that, as a result of her PR for the last day win being adjudged to have been 82:

 

 

But when a horse runs below its handicap mark, it won't necessarily be dropped to its performance level. For instance, Cry Havoc won a couple of times before running poorly on her most recent two starts:

 

 

Looking from bottom to top, we see she was 1st of 14 and, running off 79, was raised to 82. She then won in a field of 11 off her revised OR of 82 and was awarded a new PR of 86. On her penultimate start, when sixth of eight, she ran to a PR of just 69 and yet her handicap mark (OR) remained unchanged on 86. Another poor run, this time eliciting a PR of just 34 when running off 86 and trailing home last of six followed. After that, she was dropped a pound to an OR of 85 (not shown).

So what do these PR figures tell us? Well, they quantify the degree to which a horse may have underperformed and, when looking at the last few runs of a horse, they can help us build a profile of progression / regression in a similar way to RPR.

PR figures will start building as a history from now - we don't have the historic data, unfortunately - and there are some caveats, as follows:

- We will never publish a PR figure where there is no published OR (in other words, before a horse receives a handicap mark)

- We will never publish a PR figure for runs prior to the awarding of a handicap mark

- We will never publish a PR figure for Irish racing

The reason in each case is the same: we don't have access to them! Such data are a closely guarded secret at BHA towers and we are permitted to publish only what is available on the BHA website itself.

NOTE: You need to 'turn on' the PR ratings from the Racecard Options area of your My Geegeez page:

 

Over time, I feel that these PR figures will be a useful guide to horses' form profile and may also help to shed some light on optimal conditions for more exposed runners.

For more information on Performance Ratings, check out this article on the BHA's website.

*

That's all for now - I hope there's something of use to you in the above.

Good luck,

Matt

p.s. the SBC Awards votes close tomorrow at 9pm. geegeez.co.uk has been voted in two categories - Best Betting Website and Best Betting Data Resource - and your vote counts! There are also prizes to be won in a draw, as follows:

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To vote, click here. It'll take about 120 seconds. And thanks a million!

Jockeys and Run Style Revisited

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In this article I will be looking at my favourite area of research, namely running styles / pace, writes Dave Renham. As I have mentioned numerous times before, knowing how a race is likely to “pan out” in terms of a potential “pace angle” can give us an important edge.

Being able to predict the running style of each horse in a race can be liquid gold in certain circumstances but, as we know, in most cases this is trending towards the impossible. However, using past run style data we can make an informed judgement, and certain races will be easier to predict how things will pan out than others. In terms of past running style, arguably the most important factor is the horse itself, especially if it has a preferred pace position. However, there are other dynamics to consider, including the other horses in the race, the draw at certain tracks and over certain distances, the trainer, and the jockey.  And it is that last variable I'll be delving into for the remainder of the article.

A jockey can certainly make a big difference in any race, especially when it comes to pace or running styles. How often have you seen a jockey set a steady gallop in front and manage to repel all rivals for a pillar to post victory? Just the other day at Chester we saw a masterclass of that from Hollie Doyle, aboard Pride Of America in a 1m2f handicap (12/5/23). Hollie got to the front, dictated the tempo, and then cleverly kicked for home earlier than the other jockeys were expecting. She now had them all on the stretch and kicked three lengths clear around two furlongs out. The favourite gradually closed as they reached the final furlong and possibly got a neck in front with 150 yards to go. However, the energy it had used up to get back to Pride Of America meant he had nothing left for the finish and Doyle’s mount pulled away again for a classy success.

For this article I have looked at five years' worth of data (1/1/18 to 31/12/22) including both turf and all weather racing, but in the UK only (i.e. not Ireland). My focus has been on handicap races and I will start over the two sprint trips of 5 and 6 furlongs. Before I crack on, let me give you an overview of run style and what it means (regular readers will know this inside out by now I hope!).

The run style stats have been sourced from this website's data – specifically the Query Tool. The run style data here at Geegeez is split into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section.

The numbers are really helpful as we can use them to drill down and build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be.

Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front runner;

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

 

Jockeys in Sprint Handicaps (5f - 6f)

As a starting point let us see which jockeys took the early lead the most (in % terms) in sprint handicaps at up to six furlongs. I have included jockeys that have had at least 100 rides over this 5-year period and who are currently still riding in the UK – those with the highest 15 percentages are shown below:

 

 

For comparison purposes the average for ALL jockeys in terms of taking the early lead is 14.2%. Thus, Ross Coakley and Kieran O’Neill both go forward early nearly twice as often as the average. Now, a look at those jockeys that have the lowest percentages:

 

 

There are a couple of very well-known jockeys in this cohort: Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer. Spencer is renowned for his hold up style as a jockey, so that should come as no surprise. However, Ryan Moore may raise more eyebrows, as less than 6% of his sprint handicap rides have seen him take the lead early. Moore-ridden sprint handicappers have been held up more than any of the other three run styles (mid division, prominent, led), but only 11.7% of them have won. Compare this to the combined figure of horses he's ridden prominently or led aboard which have won 22.2% of the time in the same group of races. Moore is a well-respected and successful jockey, but in sprint handicaps would I want him riding a horse I'm keen on? Probably not.

Jockeys who can get their mounts to front run more often than most in sprints are definitely worth noting, but one could (rightly) argue that the win percentages for jockeys when on front runners is more important. For example, if a jockey had taken the lead in 25% of races but won only 5% of them then this turns into a negative. In contrast, a jockey that has led early in say 15% of races but won 25% of the time when taking the early lead is definitely a positive. Of course, the ideal is to have a jockey that gets to the front early a high percentage of the time, and goes on to win a high percentage of the time!

Therefore, let us now look at the top performing jockeys in terms of win % when on a front runner (30 front running rides minimum):

 

 

For comparison purposes the average win SR% for ALL front running jockeys in handicap sprints stands at 18.1%. It's good to see Messrs Coakley, Hart, Callan and Bryan in this table – they were also in the top 15 of early leading jockeys shown earlier. Some of the datasets are quite small, so we do need to be aware of this but, when it comes to Jason Hart, we have plenty of evidence with which to work. Hence let's dig a little deeper into Hart's run style record in 5-6f handicaps.

Jason Hart's Run Style in Sprint Handicaps (up to 6f)

As we have seen Jason Hart front runs / leads early in roughly a quarter of all handicap sprints in which he rides. Of these 27.2% went on to win. These are impressive and powerful numbers and I am always on the look-out for which horse Hart is riding in such contests.

Look at Hart compared to the average jockey, in terms of run style: there are two columns in the graph below. The orange columns show what percentage of horses displayed that particular running/pace style for all the jockeys; this is our control group data if you like. The blue columns are the figures for Hart. So, for instance, leaders accounted for 14% of all runners when examining the ALL jockey data, whereas Hart led on 25.5% of his sprint handicap rides; prominent racers were 33.4% for all jockeys versus 39.9% for Hart, and so on.

 

 

The graph is useful as it is an easy way to compare the data. Jason Hart clearly understands the importance of track position in sprints: 65.4% of the time he either gets to, or is close to, the front early. This is far higher than the average figure for ALL jockeys which stands at 47.6%.

If we look at the win and place breakdown for Hart, we can really see the importance of track position:

 

 

As the table shows, if you had been able to back every front running sprinter Hart rode, you would have made a huge profit, not just if backing to win, but backing each way also. Not only that, we need also to remember these profit/loss figures are calculated to Industry SP. Just imagine the profits if backing on the exchanges or taking BOG! Prominent racers would have made us a profit if backing to win also. The stats/returns for midfield and hold up horses are poor for Hart in these quick fire events – but we know from previous research this is almost always the case regardless of rider or situation.

For the record Hart has taken 123 different horses to the front early in these races and, of those he has ridden from the front four times or more, 15 of the 16 won at least once. Indeed these 16 horses have combined to front run in 107 races of which they were successful on 40 occasions, which equates to a hugely impressive 37.4% strike rate.

There is one more Jason Hart stat to share which is his record on front runners in handicap sprints when his horse was in the top three of the betting: he has won on these horses a staggering 41.2% of the time with SP returns equating to 90p in the £. Looking at the ALL jockey figures for these fancied runners, the strike rate is just 29.2%.

Before moving on, Hollie Doyle is another jockey who has done well on similarly fancied runners, scoring over 38% of the time.

Jockeys in 7f & 1m Handicaps

Up in trip now. To start with I will look once again at which jockeys took the early lead most often (in % terms) in these races. As with the sprints I have included jockeys who had at least 100 rides over the 5-year period and who are currently still riding in the UK – those with the highest 15 percentages are shown below:

 

 

Theodore Ladd has staggering figures, taking his runners to the lead over a third of the time. Next highest is Frankie Dettori, albeit with a 12% lower figure.

It should be noted that front runners in handicaps are not as successful over 7f-1m compared with 5-6f but, generally, they do still have an edge, as the graph below shows:

 

 

As can be seen a front runner is twice as likely to win as any individual hold up horse. For the record, if we had been able to use our crystal ball to predict the front runner in every qualifying race we would have made a profit of £1954.92 to £1 level win stakes, equating to returns to Industry SP of over 22p in the £.

Time to see which jockeys have performed best from the front in terms of win strike rate (50 front running rides minimum / 7f-1m handicaps):

 

 

William Buick heads the list on 30% which is excellent. He also appeared in the best percentage table for 5-6f handicaps earlier; much of this will be down to the well-drilled Charlie Appleby horses on which he typically has first dibs. Hollie Doyle appears again also, as do Daniel Tudhope and Charles Bishop.

Data as we know can get skewed under certain circumstances, so I now want to examine jockey run style performance in these 7f-1m handicaps when the horses have come from the top three in the betting. This gives us a similar group of runners which renders jockey comparison arguably more effective. First let us breakdown overall win strike rates for all four run styles when the horses are in the top three in the betting:

 

 

Early leaders still enjoy a strong edge in this cohort of exclusively fancied runners. The overall strike rate for ALL runners from the top three in the betting stands at 20.3%, so these front runners score 35% more often than the average (27.4 / 20.3 = 1.35).

Let us review which jockeys have higher strike rates on top three in the betting front runners than the 27.4% average. In addition I will share the potential profit/loss figures should we have predicted the horse/jockey would get to the front early (40 qualifiers minimum):

 

 

Some impressive figures here – Buick is again prominent in the list with an excellent 43% win success, though Tom Marquand just pips him on 44.4%. Hollie Doyle has very good stats once more.

Run style/pace averages by jockey

In order to give us a more complete picture I have produced jockey run style/pace averages. I have used these averages in the past not just for jockeys, but courses and trainers as well. I simply add up the Geegeez pace points for a particular jockey and divide it by the number of rides; the higher the average the more prominent the jockey tends to race. It makes sense to split these pace averages up into 5-6f and 7f-1m handicap figures.

I have also highlighted jockeys with high run style/pace averages (in green) and low run style/pace averages (in red). The colour coding parameters for each distance are slightly different as the average run style figure for 5-6f handicaps is 2.28, for 7f-1m it is a little lower at 2.21.

 

 

As a rule of thumb I would prefer to have a jockey with a green figure if riding a horse I wanted to bet at these distances. I also would check their win strike rate as well because, as I mentioned earlier, this is clearly important in terms of avoiding losing runs.

Before winding this piece up, here is a race example of how we could have combined our knowledge of both horse and jockey pace/run styles. It is from March 16th of this year and it was a 5f handicap at Southwell. The racecard below has been ordered by horse pace totals (last four runs):

 

 

As we know 5f handicaps generally give front runners a healthy edge and, looking at the horse data above, it seemed likely that the early pace will come from either Ustath, Brandy Station or Dapper Man. If we now look at the jockey run style pace averages (5-6f handicaps 2018-2022) we see the following:

 

 

Jason Hart, who was mentioned earlier in the article, tops the list and hence a combination of Dapper Man’s 14 points and Jason Hart’s preference to push his mounts up to or near the front early, looked a good partnership. Ustath (16 points) was ridden by Jonny Peate, but his average was relatively modest at 2.19; Brandy Station (14 points) was ridden by Zak Wheatley who had a decent enough figure of 2.42. From these stats and using solely run style/pace to find a selection, you would say that Dapper Man and Jason Hart looked the most obvious option with Brandy Station another to consider.

As is inevitably the way with example races, things panned out much as expected from a run style perspective: Ustath and Brandy Station disputed the lead for the first furlong before Dapper Man who had been tracking them took over. He led for the rest of the race and won at 8/1.

Obviously, not all races will go to script like this, but doing our run style homework should give us an edge over those who ignore run style completely, or do not fully understand it; jockeys definitely have a part to play and we need to be aware of that.

There are many other factors to consider when analysing any race, but run style bias can be potent, especially over certain courses and distances. In some cases I would argue it is the most important thing to consider. I hope this piece has further sparked your interest and, if you have not really considered run style before, this should offer some food for thought. Until next time...

- DR

Monday Musings: A Weekend in France

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It could only happen in France, writes Tony Stafford. There were 15 runners in the Grade 1 Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil on Saturday and despite seven from Ireland, four Willie and one Emmet Mullins, a dual Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle winner (Flooring Porter) for Gavin Cromwell, and last month’s impressive Sandown Grade 2 chase winner Hewick from Shark Hanlon, the French turfistes bet as though only one horse mattered.

Until a few weeks ago there would have been a big two, but over recent meetings, Theleme, Saturday’s 6/4 favourite trained by Arnaud Chaille-Chaille, so good a trainer they named him twice, had taken control. Last year, Hermes Baie had easily won the then eight-runner renewal by seven lengths from Mullins’ first string of three, Klassical Dream, who was coming on from winning at Punchestown, a feat he repeated late last month.

In another replica, while just preferred in the market to his conqueror, Klassical Dream was again seven lengths adrift of Hermes Baie, as that six-year-old got within a couple of lengths of his contemporary Theleme, a well beaten fourth last time. Still, third will have done quite nicely for Joanne Coleman and family and Mr and Mrs Mark Smith, not only enjoying a weekend in the French capital but also glorying in West Ham United’s Europa Conference League exploits. The bubbles surely will have been flowing and blowing!

This season, apart from an aberration when Goa Lil, a 7yo trained by Tom George’s son Noel, but running in the colours of Nigel Twiston-Davies, was allowed too long a lead and supplied an 18/1 shock against the long odds-on Theleme - Nige’s horse pulled up on Saturday – it’s been one way traffic.

The unusual thing I referred to at the start of the piece was the fact that in each of Theleme’s last dozen races over the past 20 months, Hermes Gaie has been among the opposition.  For their initial five encounters, Francois Nicolle’s charge had been on top, winning four of those races, but the tide has turned emphatically and Theleme is now unequivocally the master.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece about a one-time Willie Mullins horse, not to mention his initial trainer, Guillaume Macaire, and subsequent not insubstantial handlers, Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton. He’s a discard from Sullivan Racing and hardly the type to make a living out of racing in France, the land of his birth, you would think.

But over the past 18 months, from her base in Westbury-on-Severn, Gloucestershire, Sophie Leech and her husband Christian have been loading up the horsebox for the eight-hour trip to the Paris tracks to campaign said Lucky One, with spectacular form and financial results for owner Ben Halsall.

Last month, the eight-year-old won more than 50k in a race over 2m5f at France’s principal jumps track, and afterwards the team reasoned he was unexposed at the extended 3m1f of the Grande Course, so the foolhardy – it seemed to others – plan was hatched.

A glimpse at his UK rating of 114 – probably unrealistic as his last ten runs (all of them in fact since being bought out of the Skelton yard) – have been in France. He was raised to an exchange equivalent of 129 (from 120) for the last win.

What is as equally remarkable as Lucky One’s achievements is the Leech race planning of his programme. He has taken up and raced in eight of his last ten entries.

Surely, though, he would struggle in such company? Well, no, in the event he ran on from the rear into sixth, admittedly behind Irish trio Klassical Dream, Hewick, and Emmet Mullins’s lightly-raced Feronily, all of those recent Grade 1 scorers. But, in turn, he was well clear of Haut En Couleurs, Willie’s 146-rated hurdler and 10lb higher chaser, in 8th place; 156-rated Flooring Porter (9th), with Willie’s remaining pair Asterion Forlonge (155 hurdles, 162 chase) 10th and Kilcruit (145 and 160 chase) 11th.

Christian Leech said they were all thrilled at the result and he and Sophie are looking forward to exploiting the opportunities in what they regard as their “home” programme book next season. In the meantime, they had another nice result at Compiegne last week when Alnadam, a 42/1 shot, picked up 7k for his fourth in a Listed hurdle.

Eight lengths behind in fifth was the Harry Fry trained Might I, a 3/1 shot. Rated 20lb above the Leech horse in the UK ratings, but conceding only 2lb, he was easily beaten off. Alnadam can look forward to some more trips under the Channel in the coming weeks and months.

If Willie Mullins was pained at having four unsuccessful darts at the big hurdle, the gloom would have intensified yesterday when the well-publicised plan to return with last year’s third Franco De Port for the Grand Steeple Chase de Paris proved in vain as he trailed home eighth of 18.

The master trainer had planned out his season minutely, with three previous trips across to Paris along with a date in the Cheltenham Cross Country when he ran third to Gordon Elliott’s smart pair Delta Work and Galvin, but to no avail.

There were three UK connections faring rather better. Lord Daresbury, who in his days as Peter Greenall rode many good hunter chasers under the guidance of a master trainer of an earlier era, the irrepressible Arthur Stephenson, four decades ago. His lordship is the principal owner of the big race favourite Gex, who was backed down to a very short 9/5 before the off.

Most of the way it seemed inevitable that he would win but he was pestered out of it on the run-in by a determined Johnny Charron on Rosario Baron, trained by Daniela Mele. Fourth were two familiar names, Nick Littmoden and Jack Quinlan, trainer and rider of Imperil, who collected £71k.

The seven-year-old was bought originally from France as a juvenile and I was at Fakenham on New Year’s Day in 2020 when the son of No Risk At All made his Littmoden debut and cantered away with the 2nd division of the novice hurdle, beating a 40/1 shot trained by the late Shaun Keightley.

I was there to see Waterproof win the first division of that race for Keightley in the colours of Raymond Tooth. Jack Quinlan, pretty much the only jump jockey of any seniority in most of the past decade to be based in racing’s HQ, had done all the schooling on Waterproof and ridden him in his previous starts, but was unavailable for Fakenham when he could also have ridden Imperil.

My connection with Jack’s father Noel goes back a long way and probably as far as with Littmoden. In his days around 25 years ago – Nick first took out a licence in 1994 – he trained on the track at Dunstall Park, Wolverhampton. In response to my asking whether he had anything for sale privately, he came up with two hard-working handicappers which were passed on to Kuwaiti brothers who raced on a small private track.

When, after a season, they reported back that between them they had won 15 races (one seven and the other eight), unwisely I passed on the “good news” to their previous trainer and Nick refused to sell them any more! At least, the boys offered me a trip to the wedding of one of them that winter which I was happy to accept.

Sometime after, Nick moved to Newmarket and trained from Julie Cecil’s Southgate Stables in the Hamilton Road after she retired. That’s now the base for Amy Murphy, Jack Quinlan’s principal employer, when her stable was much more jumping oriented. The best days were when Kalashnikov was winning the Betfair Hurdle and other nice races.

Amy herself has done well with mostly Flat runners in France and she is still toying with the idea of making the move to that country permanent to take advantage of the far better prizemoney on a day-to-day basis. A hurdles win there for now 10-year-old Kalashnikov at Auteuil in March brought a win prize of £23k and he was then sixth in another hurdle at Compiegne over 2m3f, won by Rosario Baron, who stepped up 10f and over to fences for yesterday’s triumph

Littmoden, unlike Amy, did go the whole hog; switching with wife Emma in early 2021 to a base at Moulins-les-Metz in Alliers, Central France, 377 km from Paris and just north-west of Lyon. With so many of France’s many racetracks within a few hours’ drive, that has proved an ideal location.

In 25 years’ training over jumps, his best single season’s prizemoney haul in the UK was £29K, although when he had the journalist/professional gambler Nigel Shields as the main owner in the yard, he was adept, with Nigel’s shrewd reading of the programme and form book, at getting many more wins, 80 being the peak in 2002.

In 2021 upon his move, the first season brought 14 wins from 78 runs and yielded €218k; last year 13/168 brought €268k and this year so far eight wins from 51 have added €259k so he is on course for a another much-increased tally. With almost £800k for his owners over just more than two years, this has been a transfer to savour. He operates from two yards, one based at Moulins racecourse housing around 15 horses – no new experience for him! – and the remainder are located nearby at a farm with an 800-metre gallop.

Yesterday’s fourth in the undoubted biggest race of the year over fences in France was one sort of pinnacle but when his career record as a foreign trainer in the country is remembered after he finally retires, Imperil’s success under Jack last month in the race that is known as the French Grand National, but is actually the Prix du President de la Republique, will stand tallest. Jack was along for that ride too, as Imperil beat 16 others in the race over just short of 3m.

While Littmoden was checking his France Galop account to see whether he had beaten last year’s tally, Willie Mullins finally got on the winner’s podium. His filly Gala Marceau, in the Kenny Alexander Honeysuckle colours, picked up her second Grade 1 win, having previously been the beneficiary of stablemate Lossiemouth’s traffic problems at the Dublin Racing Festival in February at Leopardstown.

Otherwise, she had been seeing Lossiemouth’s back end in a second place in the Triumph Hurdle and third at Punchestown, but she bolted up yesterday in the 4yo championship, Grande Course de Haies de Printemps (Spring), slaughtering the much-acclaimed domestic champion Losange Bleu by seven lengths.

Then again, you might say champion of what? Mullins had bought all the potential juvenile stars over the past 18 months and most of them, including Lossiemouth, are still on the upgrade. No doubt Willie and Howard Kirk will have had their notebooks out over the past few weeks, shopping for next season’s stars. And probably still trying to remember where they had heard the name Lucky One!

  • TS

Roving Reports: HQ, and Closer To Home

/in /by

My workload is starting to pick up as the season progresses, and now the evening racing has kicked in, even more so, writes David Massey. I shall tell you about the knock-on effect of that for me later, but let's start this episode at the beginning of the month, and two days at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket.

You'll notice only the two - we decided not to go on the Friday, as the Silver Ring, which is where we will be working both days, has next to no business that day. So we set off on the Saturday morning, and in this case the "we" is myself and the good lady, who has purloined a free ticket from a friend of hers. The forecast is mixed, with some showers due early afternoon but should pass through quickly. I trust the weather forecasts as much as I'd trust having my palm read to determine if it'll rain or not, so the wet weather gear is packed.

We arrive in plenty of time to get set up, and start betting. It is extremely slow to get going, with families still coming in as the first goes off. However, before that, the rain begins, and up go the bookmakers' umbrellas, along with a whole row of gazebos as families that have been a bit more forward-thinking take shelter.

The rain gets a bit heavier and behind us are some very dark clouds indeed. It soon becomes fairly clear that the wet stuff is set in. Worse, it appears to be coming in sideways. When rain falls directly on you from overhead it isn't so bad, as the umbrella does its job and keeps the majority of it off you. When it comes at you from the side, everything gets wet. You're not only trying to protect yourself but all the electrics - if your printer packs up as the damp gets in, that's game over - and a second pair of arms is called for.

We take very little on the first race, which is just as well as the jolly old favourite wins. The two joint-favourites are hand-in-hand over the line for a 1-2 in the next, too, but it hardly matters as the rain is absolutely killing the business.

It gets heavier still. One family in front of us packs up and goes home. Two races. That's all they have seen. I hope they feel they had value for money but, equally, the idea of going somewhere warmer and drier appeals to me right now, too. I fancy Probe a bit in the next and give it a cheer as it wins. At least I've got a few quid in my pocket after that, even if the firm haven't. I really don't need to tell you how the rest of the day went, as the rain did not go anywhere and it was quite literally a wash-out. After five races the water-resistant coat I'm wearing becomes resistant no longer, and my shirt underneath develops some big damp patches. I have to go back to the car and change. The deluge eventually stops as the last gets underway. The least said about this day, the better.

Sunday comes and is a different kettle of fish. The sun is shining to the point I need sunscreen, and there are families pouring in on what is traditionally a family day. The puppet show (the same noisy one as last year, but mercifully further away from us this year) is in full swing, the inflatables are proving popular and the ice-cream van has a queue all afternoon. I wouldn't mind a 20% share in that action today.

We get going an hour before the first. It isn't long before a bloke, who appears to have been on the early shift at Wetherspoons, comes up to me. I shall try and give you an idea of the conversation.

"Is this the first race?"

"Yes mate, it is."

(Long pause)

"And these are the runners?"

"That's right."

(Long pause)

"For the first?"

"Yes."

(Very long pause)

"Can I have a bet in the second race?"

"After this one you can, yes."

(Long pause)

"Is this the first race?"

And so on. He gets bored after ten minutes and goes to the bookmaker next door, and asks exactly the same questions. He looks absolutely out of it. I shout over to Tony, the bookie next door, that he can have him all afternoon if he likes! For some reason Tony doesn't want him. I cannot imagine why...

It is, as you'd expect for a Silver Ring, all small money we are taking but surprisingly we do plenty of business on debit cards, too. HMS President is a good result and so is Running Lion in the Pretty Polly, with Queen Of Fairies one of the best backed horses all afternoon. There are a lot of first-time punters, and as is always the case, one of them has backed the first three winners. I let her into the secret that "we always let you win first time" before she promptly gets the four-timer up with Via Sistina.

Now, there has been a distinct waft of weed in the air all afternoon (sadly, all too common on racecourses these days) and the lady with the drugs dog is in the area to try and find the source. It doesn't take the dog long to latch onto the scent and he's pulling her towards someone.

It's only matey boy who was such a pain in the backside before the first that she's after. Suddenly, that conversation makes a bit more sense.

Laughably, he's off and trying to get away from the dog. "STAY THERE!!" the handler bellows at him, and he knows the game is up. He sinks to his knees in despair, his face pleading for mercy. She's having none of it, and within a couple of minutes he's escorted off the premises by three security guards.

"Cheerio, cheerio, cheerio!!" goes the chant as he's marched off. Myself and Tony are killing ourselves laughing as he tries to get a roll-up in his mouth, only to miss, and isn't allowed to go back and fetch it. He seems more upset about that than the fact he's got to leave.

Anyway, back to the main event, and the 1000 Guineas. Business is solid and I take a £200 bet on the favourite, which stays in the satchel as Mawj proves too good. It's that good a result I'm sent for four Magnums from the ice-cream van, a bargain at fourteen quid. And they moan about the margins that they bet to in the ring.

Two races to go and, from nowhere, I have a punter that's having a few quid on. He has £200 on Hectic and £100 on Saxon King. Where's he been all afternoon? Has he got any mates that want a bet, I ask him with a smile?

He backs the winner and with the £600 he collects, has £300 back on Lion Of War. Sadly there's no good ending for him as it finishes a well-held fourth. I enquire as to whether there might be a second round of Magnums only to be told I was lucky to get the first one!

There are cars stuck in the car park on the way out, parts of it have just turned to mud after yesterday, and the tractor is going to be busy. Not for us though, and after getting paid it's out and we're on the way home.

The following Saturday, with so many meetings, saw me pick up a day for a firm I don't usually work for. Martyn Of Leicester (for it was he) had pitches at Ascot, Leicester, Nottingham and Warwick, a total of 16 in all, and that requires a lot of workers. I'd been asked a couple of weeks ago if I'd like a home fixture and so I worked the rails for him at Nottingham on what was their Ladies Day.

I often moan about how soulless Nottingham can be but there was no lack of atmosphere on Saturday; the place was buzzing with a great crowd up for an enjoyable day in the sun. All the other rails pitches had three workers on them, but I was on my own ("just do your best" says Martyn; I informed him I always do my best) and was busy from the word go. Most of the punters seem to know what they are doing, always helpful, and the first two results go our way. Come race four, though, and I have a problem.

The 10 horse, Showalong, wins easily but one bloke brings a losing slip up, saying I gave him £20 number 2 rather than £20 number 10. It's entirely possible I misheard him - a genuine mistake if so, particularly with a loud tannoy system - but I point out to him it's too late to do anything about it now. It clearly says on every ticket we print "please check your ticket" as I can change a bet beforehand, but he's not happy. I tell him I can get the ring inspector if he wishes but he's not listening, he's stormed off with a few choice words regarding myself getting a hearing test. The other 500-odd punters I deal with over seven races have no such problems. Please, ladies and gentlemen, check your tickets...

At the end of the day Martyn is delighted with the efforts I've made. He's had a winning day and he pays me well, with a good top-up on my wages. Better still, I only have a five-mile journey home. If only all tracks were five miles from my house. I could work twice a day, at least until the end of August...

- DM

Run Style in Smaller Field Handicaps

/in /by

It is time for me to revisit one of my favourite areas of research, namely the run style of horses, writes Dave Renham. In case you didn't know, run style research is often linked with draw analysis, as one can positively impact the other depending on the course, distance and field size in question. For example, if we look at data from 2014 to 2022 for Chester handicap sprints (up to 6f) with 10+ runners, we can see that the highest third of the draw are at a disadvantage in terms of taking the early lead:

 

 

Of the 92 early pace runners, just 11 were horses from the top third of the draw. Working out the percentage chance of which third of the draw is most likely to lead given those raw figures are as follows:

 

 

So a horse from the top third of the draw manages to take the early lead just under 12% of the time. This equates to less than one race in every eight. Compare that to horses from the lowest third of the draw who are able to lead in more than half of all races. Why this happens is simply due to the nature of the Chester track. Horses drawn low are drawn on the inside nearest the rail, and at both sprint trips, as we can see from the racecourse map, the turning nature of the track means that if a horse can grab the rail they will be going the shortest route for well over half the race.

Horses drawn wide have a very difficult task therefore to get to the early lead in front of a lower drawn rival, especially so when all jockeys (and trainers) know the value of a forward position.

 

 

So, when combining draw and run style at Chester over sprint trips with 10+ runners, it should be noted that a low drawn early leader is a horse that has a better chance of winning than any other draw / run style combination. These horses have won 26% of the time going back to 2014, whereas high drawn held up horses have won 0% of the time (0 wins from 135).

Bigger field sizes in handicap sprints almost always strengthen any draw bias – I rarely concern myself with the draw in races with small fields, and all my draw research / article writing is based on field sizes of at least eight or more. Hence in big field handicap sprints at certain courses I will use draw and run style biases in conjunction with each other to look for potential betting opportunities. The Chester stats shared above are a good illustration why I do this. At this juncture, it is worth mentioning the blindingly obvious: I don’t ignore other race reading factors, I just perceive draw and run style as often the most useful.

However, in recent years, the average number of runners in handicap races has been dropping. This means that fewer races provide the opportunity to use draw and run style biases in tandem.

To illustrate the fact that smaller field races are becoming more prevalent, take a look at the table below. This illustrates the percentage of races that have taken place within different field size brackets in 5f handicaps, comparing the period from 2015 to 2018 data with the past two full seasons (2021-2022).

 

 

As you can see the very smallest fields (2 to 6 runners) have seen an increase from 18.7% to 21.3%; there is also an increase in the 7 to 9 runner bracket. In 10 to 12 runner races there has been a small decrease, but in 13+ runner races we can see a bigger reduction.

A similar pattern can be seen when we delve into 6f handicap data over the same two time frames:

 

 

Races of 2 to 6 runners occurred roughly one in every nine contests between 2015 and 2018, but this has increased to roughly once in every six races in the past two seasons. This is not ideal as races with fewer runners gives me less opportunity to potentially factor in draw bias. However, we have to move with the times, so in the remainder of this article I will look in more detail at small field sprint handicaps, honing in specifically on run style.

From extensive past research I know, and regular readers of my articles will know, that early leaders in handicap sprints tend to have a decent advantage over other run styles. At some courses the bias is stronger than others, and as a general rule front runners have more of an edge over five furlongs than six. As I mentioned earlier my draw based articles use eight runners as a minimum, so it makes sense therefore to concentrate here on races with seven or fewer runners. I have analysed data from the past seven full seasons in the UK (2016 to 2022) looking solely at 5f and 6f handicaps.

To start with let's look at the run style win strike rate splits for all 5f handicaps with 7 or fewer runners. I am splitting the results in the same way that Geegeez does, into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. These scores can be found in racecards, on the Pace Analyser tool and on the Query Tool on the site.

 

 

As we can see, early leaders / front runners (L) have a definite advantage over prominent racers who in turn have an advantage over horses that race in mid division or are held up. The A/E indices correlate too – A/E (Actual vs Expected) is an indicator of value where a figure of 1 or more is a positive:

 

 

Early leaders/front runners have an A/E index of 1.2 which is strong. Indeed, if your crystal ball for predicting the front runner in these 5f handicaps had been in tip top order, then backing all these runners would have yielded a profit of £346.62 to £1 level stakes giving returns of 22p for every £1 staked. That is at starting price, the figures to BSP are roughly double that.

This front running bias can also be seen when we look at the run style win strike rates for favourites:

 

 

Favourites that led early or raced prominently both made a profit to SP assuming we had been able to predict their running style pre-race. Mid-division favourites lost 11p in the £, with hold up jollies losing double that at 22p in the £.

A look at the official going now to see if that has any effect in small field 5f handicaps. Here are the stats for front runners / early leaders by going:

 

 

Other than on good to soft going the win strike rate has exceeded 20%. It seems that front runners have a decent edge regardless of ground conditions in small field five furlong sprint handicaps, with potential profits across the board and A/E indices of 1 or greater for all.

Jockey data for front runners in these races is a little limited (only four riders led early in 30 or more races). However, I do want to mention Jason Hart as he has won with 12 of his 30 front running rides (SR 40%). Hart's A/E index stands at an outstanding 2.48. On prominent runners he has a goodish record scoring just under 18%, but on mid div / hold up horses he managed just 1 win from 29 (SR 3.4%). Hart also has a very good record from the front in 5f handicaps with fields of eight or more runners (SR 29.9%), so he clearly is a good judge of pace when taking his horse to the front early. Hollie Doyle has a good record on these 5f early leaders, too, with 12 wins from 32 (SR 32.4%; A/E index 1.89).

Time to go up a furlong and look at the 6f handicap stats in races of 7 runners or less.

 

 

Front runners are once again clearly the most successful, but the other three groups are much more even than in their five furlong equivalents. Prominent racers are no longer in a clear second place over this extra furlong. Checking the A/E indices we see a correlation once again:

 

 

Early leaders / front runners hit an impressive 1.18, virtually the same as the 5f handicap figure of 1.20. The other three are fairly closely matched, as their win strike rates were.

Below is a bar chart showing the fate of 6f handicap favourites in small fields by run style.

 

 

The front running bias remains when focusing on favourites only, with over 40% of front running favourites winning, and they would have been profitable, too. The other three groups would have yielded loses.

A look at the going now. Over 5f the figures for front runners / early leaders were relatively even and positive across the board. What about at three-quarters of a mile?

 

 

Once more, we see positive figures across the board with strike rates all above 20% and A/E indices all above 1.10. It should be noted that for both five- and six-furlong handicaps the 'soft or heavy' A/E index was the highest as was the win strike rate. Maybe the front running bias is slightly stronger on soft and heavy ground but I would personally need more evidence to be confident of this.

A quick mention of jockeys: I noted earlier that Hollie Doyle had decent figures on 5f front runners, and she has a similar record over this extra furlong with 14 wins from 38 rides (SR 36.8%; A/E index 2.19). She must be a very good judge of pace in small field sprint handicaps.

Before I close, allow me to share some front running data for trainers. I have combined 5f and 6f handicaps to give us bigger samples (45 runs+ qualify, ordered by strike rate):

 

 

Some impressive figures here especially for Archie Watson, Kevin Ryan and Tom Dascombe. Indeed, 13 of Watson’s 25 winners were ridden by Hollie Doyle and this trainer/jockey combo scored 43% of the time with front runners.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

It is clear that even in smaller field handicaps over 5 or 6 furlongs, horses that grab the early lead have a definite advantage. Over 5f the bias is stronger, but the edge over six is still playable. The age old problem is being able to predict the early leader before the start of the race. From previous articles that I have written on this site, we have seen that the run style / pace scores found in the racecards are a definite help. Horses with the highest last four run pace totals do lead more often than those with lower pace totals.

Before I finish, here is an example of a six-runner handicap from earlier this year, so not a race within this article's sample data, where the last four pace totals seemed to indicate a very strong candidate for a horse that would lead early:

 

 

Bare Necessity had led in three of his previous four runs and had a four-point advantage over the second highest pace scoring horse, and he had the inside stall. Not only that, of the 20 runs of the other horses combined, just one of these races had seen a horse take the early lead. Now we can never be certain pre-race that a horse will lead, but this is about as good as it gets. As it turns out Bare Necessity did lead early and made all the running to win:

 

 

As I am sure you will agree, 28/1 winners are not to be sniffed at! It goes without saying that races do not always pan out perfectly like this, but ultimately if you could predict the front runner most of the time in such races, you would not really need to do much else: no need to check the form, whether the horse goes on the ground, how fit is the horse, etc, etc. Maybe we should have a challenge for members – to find a method to predict the highest percentage of front runners. I’m in!

- DR

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