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There is no question that one male and one female jockey transcend all others in the perception of people who may not be regular followers of our wonderful, but undeniably niche, sport. ITV are valiantly and very professionally increasing coverage on the main free channels it controls and nowadays have great flexibility on which platform they use. Tough if you can only receive ITV1, but even you would have seen both those famous people in action on Saturday.
More accurately, the gentleman, Frankie Dettori, was in frequent, albeit unrewarding sight at Newbury. Rachael Blackmore, his female counterpart, Darling of Cheltenham, and Aintree, was on a first visit to Ayr along with her boss Henry de Bromhead.
She was there to ride another of Scotsman Kenny Alexander’s horses, in the same colours as the great Honeysuckle. At a Cheltenham meeting full of epic events, that superstar’s final act on a racecourse in winning the mares’ race at the Festival last month, following two Champion Hurdles, was the highlight of the week for many.
With the TV cameras and presenters watching every move on Saturday, Rachael successfully negotiated one fence on her mount Telmesomethinggirl, before being dumped unceremoniously when unseated at the next.
Being deposited on the turf – and Ayr’s was less than ideally receptive as the host of absentees from its £120k to the winner Scottish Grand National, testified – must have been a jolt.
Hopefully, she will be fit for one of her’s and de Bromhead’s most important fixtures, the five days of Punchestown, starting tomorrow. As with Leopardstown at Christmas and the Dublin Racing Festival in February, there is massive prizemoney available, and she won’t want to be side-lined for any of it.
Meanwhile Dettori had already bitten the turf 20 minutes earlier. The 52-year-old is, as everyone knows, in his final year as a jockey and he will be hoping to cherry-pick the best of opportunities all around the world right up until his final day.
He has a regular spot in California whenever he chooses to take it for Bob Baffert. This will always almost guarantee a top prospect or two for his final Breeders’ Cup in the autumn. Meanwhile he would dearly love another UK Classic winner or two to go with the 20 he already possesses as he stretches deeper into his sixth decade.
Hopes were high that Chaldean, the Andrew Balding-trained Juddmonte-owned colt he rode to victory in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes, would sort out the first of those five possible additions. Despite being slightly uneasy in the betting as the horses milled around behind Newbury’s stalls before the off, nobody could have anticipated the shocking outcome soon to occur.
The gates opened and Chaldean obviously made a troubled exit, as Dettori was dumped even before his mount could take a step, his horse suffering both from a violent left-handed swerve by the horse in the neighbouring stall to this right and the fact there was no horse to his left to help correct the unwelcome deviation due to two blocks of stalls connecting at that point. Chaldean decided, jockey or no jockey, to show these upstart horses what’s what and joined in the race all by himself. Meanwhile the Italian was slowly picking himself up in a state of disbelief. Unlike in almost every other sport, when something like that happens, that’s it – no comeback.
One man’s dismay can usually mean joy for somebody else and that was the case for Brian Meehan, once a regular challenger for Group and Grade 1 prizes around the world, but now operating on a smaller scale. The numbers might be down, but the talent and awareness of the ability of the horses he does control is firmly intact.
When discussing the race with me on Saturday morning, he acknowledged that Chaldean might be the superstar of the 2023 Classics, so his horse Isaac Shelby would not be taking any notice, he’d just be doing his own thing. Isaac Shelby broke nicely from his low draw at the left-hand side well away from the favourite. Sean Levey soon had him ahead and must have thought he was seeing things as the riderless Chaldean came into his vision off to the right.
In fairness, Chaldean would have been the only other horse he did see, as the Meehan colt settled into his stride and, when anything looked like getting on terms, he kept pulling out extra. At the line, he had three lengths and five and a half lengths in hand of Roger Varian’s colt Charyn and the Gosdens’ Theoryofeverything. If anything from the race is going to win the 2,000 Guineas, it is surely only Chaldean.
This is in large part because Meehan and close collaborator Sam Sangster, who bought the Night Of Thunder colt for £92,000 as a yearling, have not swayed from the original plan to go for the French 2,000 Guineas over a mile at Longchamp, rather than Newmarket on Saturday week with Isaac Shelby.
Time enthusiasts will have noted the Greenham was run in two seconds’ faster time than the immediately preceding Fred Darling (or whatever it’s called nowadays), for Classically-intending fillies. Its significance may be diminished, as that was the exact difference in the two races’ times last year.
Isaac Shelby won his first two races as a juvenile, a maiden at Newbury (good to soft) and then the Group 3 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket on good to firm ground. The going was nearer the opposite end of the spectrum on Saturday, riding at around one second per furlong slow. Saturday’s winner took seven seconds longer than Perfect Power did for the Richard Fahey stable in 2022, so probably not too dissimilar a performance.
Isaac Shelby’s only career defeat came after a slow start and a wide course in the Dewhurst at a time when getting into the middle of the track was very unrewarding. Brian just shrugs that off. It wasn’t his day, is the gist of it. Saturday certainly was!
Perfect Power failed to stay the mile in the 2,000 Guineas but went to Royal Ascot, where he comfortably won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over six furlongs. Perfect Power retired at the end of the season and stands this year at a fee of £15,000 at Sheikh Mohammed’s Dalham Hall Stud.
Despite a quiet (for them) Dubai World Cup meeting, there is little sign that Godolphin are any less acquisitive when seeking out talented horses at sales, in addition to their extensive and increasingly successful breeding operation. I finally received my Horses In Training Book (thank you Rupert!) this week and note that Charlie Appleby has 254 horses in his care this year.
He’ll have at least one more after last week’s Craven Breeze-Up sale at Newmarket, which I attended only on the first evening. Hence, I missed the sale of the Blue Point colt bought by Anthony Stroud and David Loder for a joint top-priced 625,000gns.
Blue Point, like Perfect Power, also stands at Dalham Hall, and he has gone off like a rocket with his initial lot of juveniles. Blue Storm won for the James Tate stable at Newmarket on Tuesday, making it three already in the UK. I understand he’s had a winner in France, too. [He has, Keran, trained by Jean-Claude Rouget for the Aga Khan, is Blue Point’s sole French runner so far, winning at Tarbes last Thursday – Ed.]
The other joint top was a son of Havana Grey, who on Wednesday was responsible for 28/1 winner Mammas Girl, also ridden by Sean Levey, this time for his long-standing boss Richard Hannon, in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes.
The Hannon stable has always been able to pull one out of the hat in Guineas races, both before Richard junior took over from his father and since. Don’t be shocked if this fast-improving filly – now as short as 6/1 – makes an impact in the Classic.
There have been some artistically planned big-race coups over jumps recently, but nobody seems as sure-footed as Christian Williams, who followed last year’s 1-2 in the Scottish Grand National with another well-executed win in the four-miler on Saturday.
In 2022, his mare Win My Wings led home a stable 1-2, the 13/2 joint-favourite sharing that price with Williams’ other runner, Kitty’s Light, a staying-on second. Win My Wings was retired earlier this season, but Kitty’s Light, having dropped in the handicap, easily won the Eider Chase at Newcastle last time.
Even after being reassessed for that, Kitty’s Light was able to run off 3lb lower than a year ago, and now as the 4/1 favourite he had the typical Christian Williams acceleration at the end of marathon distances. As with Win My Wings last year, his horse seemed to be going nowhere and then shot past the rest of the field to win easily. It was very much a case of Déjà vu.
Watching Robert Sangster’s colours come home in front on Isaac Shelby, it was so good to have a reminder of the long-term owner of Manton. His son Sam, through his Manton House Thoroughbreds syndicates, is keeping the tradition going with Meehan, while Sam’s nephew Ollie, son of elder brother Ben and wife Lucy, is embarking with great promise on a training career there. Déjà vu indeed.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/IsaacShelby_Greenham_2023.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-04-24 07:19:392023-04-24 07:19:39Monday Musings: Déjà vu
Having delved into two-year-old (2yo) debut data in my two previous articles (part 1 here and part 2 here), it is time to move on to 2yos on their second starts, writes Dave Renham. I will split the research up once more into two distinct pieces: this first one will look at a variety factors such as LTO (last time out) performance, LTO course, market factors, etc. The second will be drilling into numerous trainer based angles.
Once more I have researched UK flat racing results for six full years, from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf races as well as all-weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP) with commission of 5% taken into account.
Firstly let me compare the win strike rates and the win and placed (each way) strike rates for 2yo debutants versus 2yo second starters:
As you can see, having that racecourse experience makes a significant difference, both in term of winning chances and placed ones too.
These strike rates are similar year in, year out for second time starting 2yos – the graph below shows this clearly with two virtually straight lines:
Of course the betting market takes these percentages into account when setting the prices so, although second time out juveniles win more than debutants do, it does not mean they are necessarily more profitable. Let us then examine the performance of 2yo second starters by price.
Market Factors
The prices shown in the table below are Industry SPs just because they fit to a more uniform price pattern – profits / losses / returns, however, are presented to BSP as previously started:
From these figures we can see that the shorter priced runners have been quite poor value, specifically those priced 9/4 or shorter. The biggest profits have come from the 25/1 or bigger runners but take out one winner at a BSP of 560.0 and suddenly we see a 100 point deficit. Add into the mix that there were three more winners priced between 300.0 and 500.0 (396.7, 312.79 & 485.27), as well as a miserly 1% strike rate, and we can see that backing such runners is not a sensible option, even if you are patient enough to wait on average for that one win in 91.
LTO position (finishing position on debut)
This was not an option to check with debutants (for obvious reasons), but for second starters it is an area we can dive into.
The first thing to note is that horses that came second on debut actually have a better strike rate than those who won on debut. This is not usually the case – looking at ALL races over the past six seasons (any age group / race type), the strike rate for all LTO winners is slightly higher than for all LTO runners up. Here there is a 7% differential, which may be down to the weight penalty most winners are obliged to carry next time. Having said that, the returns are virtually identical – within one hundredth of a pence per every £1 staked.
The value seems to have been with those horses that finished 5th or worse. Again, though, we need to be aware that those four huge priced winners mentioned earlier all came from runners who finished 5th or worse.
LTO course (course they made their debut)
Focusing on the course where a 2yo made its debut. what difference does this make? I have included all LTO courses that have had at least 80 qualifiers. That means just two courses miss out: Epsom and Wetherby. Courses are initially listed alphabetically and I have split Newmarket into results for both the Rowley course and the July one:
As we can see there is quite a mixed bag in terms of strike rates, returns and A/E indices. In general, I think that the strike rates and A/E indices are more significant than profit/loss, as some course data will have been skewed by very big priced winners. Also I would urge punters to be equally aware of the poorer performing LTO courses. Juveniles which had debut runs at Bath, Beverley, Brighton and Chester look horses to avoid on second starts in general terms; not only do they have poor strike rates, their A/E indices are under 0.70.
There is a significant difference however, when we compare LTO turf courses with LTO AW courses:
That better than 3% differential in strike rates with 2yo debutants coming from turf courses last time out equates to a 32% relative improvement over those returning after a debut on the all-weather. Likewise, the profit and loss figures to BSP (£1 level stakes) are similarly different:
All in all, one would prefer to be backing a 2yo on second career run that raced on the turf on its debut, rather than the sand.
If we break the data down further, by looking at horses that started in the top three of the betting on their second start, the LTO course surface made a difference there as well. These more fancied runners scored 26.2% of the time if their debut run was on turf, compared to 23.2% if their debut run was on the all weather.
A debut run at Newmarket has often been considered a positive and we can see the table shows debuts at both the Rowley and July courses have produced high second time out strike rates and good returns to boot. In addition the win percentage / strike rate has been consistently good year on year as the graph shows:
Three of the six years would have produced a blind profit to BSP, and at this juncture I would like to share more specific data looking at the horses that finished 2nd or 3rd at Newmarket on debut. These runners have secured a one in three win ratio (SR 33.5%) and a small level stakes profit of £18.09 (ROI +7.7%) on their next starts. However, the most remarkable thing is that despite this modest profit, five of the six years have been winning ones:
It is clear that any horse which finished 2nd or 3rd on debut at Newmarket is worth looking at in some detail on their next outing. In fact all horses that debuted at Newmarket should be looked at as possible betting opportunities especially if other factors offer positive vibes.
Sires
Onto sires next, and here is a table of all sires with at least 100 offspring to have had two (or more) runs as two-year-olds. I have ordered them by strike rate:
There is quite a difference when comparing the likes of Dubawi at the top, with his better than one win in four ratio, and Heeraat at the bottom, whose record is roughly one win in every 50!
Now, in the previous article I looked at sire stats for 2yo debutants so it makes sense to compare the individual sires and their debut and second run stats; here, I will be comparing the 2yo strike rate and the A/E indices.
In the final column I have divided the second run win percentage / SR% by the debut one to give us a type of Impact Value. It is not a ‘true’ IV and I call it a Comparison Strike Rate (CSR). I have used this type of calculation before in some other Geegeez articles. The higher this figure the more improvement the runners show on their second run compared to their debut.
Horses highlighted in green have seen their strike rates at least double; those in red have seen their strike rates fall. A CSR figure to bear in mind is 1.52. This is the average CSR figure when looking at the strike rate comparison for ALL sires. The table is ordered by CSR.
In terms of A/E indices, the same trick of dividing one number by the other is an option to compare the two values. However, I think it is simply easier to work out the difference between the two. Here is a list of any sire whose A/E index is at least 0.3 points better for second starters compared to debutants:
Twilight Son and Poets Voice have both proved to be far better value with their 2yo runners on second start compared to debut. All six in the table see significant differences. This is something we need to take into account if looking at runners sired by these six.
Reversing the idea now, here are the sires whose A/E index is at least 0.3 points better for their debutants compared to their second starters:
All five of these sires have been far better value with their 2yo debutants, and they essentially buck the general sire trend. Any 2yo on second start sired by one of these might warrant a red flag against it.
As a stats man, my mantra is the more information the better. It is true that sometimes ‘more’ can confuse the issue, but in the case of sires, comparing, analysing and having a better understanding of first and second career run data will improve our chances of finding value if backing 2yos on a regular basis.
Damsires
As per the first 2yo debutant article, I want to share some damsire data, too. Here are the top 15 performing damsires with 2yo second starters from a strike rate perspective (100 runs / horses minimum).
Of these 15, five secured a BSP profit (Dalakhani, Dansili, Dark Angel, Oasis Dream and Shamardal); four had A/E indices of 1.00 or higher (Dalakhani, Dubawi, Dutch Art and Bahamian Bounty).
Of all the damsires mentioned I think three are worth keeping an eye out for this year and they are the top three in terms of strike rate – Dubawi, Dalakhani and Shamardal; their figures are solid across the board. For the record, backing all 2yo second starters that were priced 6/1 (Industry SP) or shorter from any of these three would have seen 88 wins from 245 runners (SR 35.9%) for a BSP profit of £45.65 (ROI +18.6%).
Jockeys
An area that I thought would be interesting to look at was whether it was better for the 2yo second starter to be ridden again by the same jockey who rode them on debut. My hypothesis was that if the same jockey rode the horse again it should be a slight plus, due to the fact that the jockey would have prior knowledge of that debut run and performance. Also I am assuming that a fair proportion of these 2yos have been ridden at home on the gallops by the same pilot. Let’s check out the findings then:
It is always heartening to see a theory produce the type of stats expected. As we can see, horses that are ridden by the same jockey for a second time in their career outperform those who have a different pilot. This is true for strike rate, returns and A/E indices.
What is also comforting to see is that the yearly strike rates for these same jockey bookings have been very consistent:
There are less than 1.3 percentage points difference between the ‘best’ year in terms of win percentage / strike rate and the ‘worst’. In my second article, I plan to break this data down further by looking at individual trainer results – I am hoping a few trainers will offer up some strong stats.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS
To close, here are the bullet points from the above.
2yos win just over 12% of the time on second starts compared to just under 8% on debut
Second time starters priced 9/4 or shorter have proved relatively poor value
Horses that finished second on debut have an excellent strike rate of nearly 28% in their follow up run, but they still lost 11p for every £1 staked
A debut run at either Bath, Beverley, Brighton or Chester can be considered a negative
A debut run at Newmarket should often be considered a positive; 2yos racing at Newmarket who finished second or third on debut have a very solid set of figures on second runs
Sires Twilight Son, Poets Voice, Bated Breath, Acclamation, Fast Company and Zebedee see their progeny perform significantly better on second starts compared to debut
Dubawi, Dalakhani and Shamardal are three damsires that are worth keeping on the right side (as a general rule). This is especially true if priced 6/1 (Industry SP) or shorter
Second time starters ridden by the same jockey that rode them in their first run have a much better record than if the jockey has changed
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I hope this article has highlighted some useful stats for Geegeez readers. It will be trainer data that comes under the microscope in that follow up. Until then...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Chaldean_Dewhurst2022.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-04-17 19:30:082023-04-18 08:09:24Two-Year-Old Runners on 2nd Start: Part 1
Seven weeks seems a fair amount of time, writes Tony Stafford. After all, it’s almost one seventh of a year and one-five hundred and forty-ninth of a lifetime if you judged lifetimes by my earthly experience. Actually, to me it seems like a couple of weeks.
When I sat down to pen my article for the week before the Cheltenham Festival on the night of March 5/6, fresh in my mind was the rather chaotic Cheltenham preview night, enacted behind a small, sort-of select gathering in the Horse and Wig public house along and up from Chancery Lane Station in Central London the previous Wednesday evening.
Two years earlier I had been one of the leading lights (chief guest securer) in a similar, albeit slightly grander and better organised, affair in the same venue. This time, as a last-minute thing, I got a late invitation along with a plea to secure someone significant to star on the panel hosted by Charlie Methven and dominated by Scott (Mr Cheltenham) Ellis.
I thought I had a great idea – and so it proved. “Leave it to me,” I said and worked away at asking Tom Scudamore, in the knowledge he’d just retired from riding and knew his stuff as well as anyone, whether he would come.
Scott and the event organiser, Les Straszewski, were all for him and, with the assurance that with the help of his long-time driver, Tom would aim to be there as soon after 6 p.m. as road conditions allowed.
The rest of the panel was all in place, mikes nicely balanced, Charlie ready to hold forth and Scott armed with ante-post vouchers from the front door to the tube station as I reported seven weeks ago. They probably stretched in truth back halfway to Brentwood in Essex!
Anxious at the lack of arrival and then, more pointedly, paucity of communication, we set the latter in play with a call or two. In the way of such things, like waiting for a kettle to boil, anticipating Tom’s arrival was an unrewarding activity – that is until he finally appeared.
Suggestions that they start without him were considered and only just resisted. Finally, though, after a few frustrating calls which revealed passing various points in West London, gradually edging to Knightsbridge and Piccadilly, the final bulletin came in on my phone’s text. Timed at 19.18 it read: Hi Tony, moving slowly, getting to you as quickly as we can.
Quickly as we can was another half an hour, but thank goodness (says Scott), we waited.
Settling into some rather nice wine, Tom adjusted to the pace of enlightened opinion and was quickly adding his professionalism to gems offered by our two main experts and Joe Hill, son of Alan and Lawney and their co-partner in the family pointing and Rules operation. Tom had ridden regularly for the Hill family, and his retirement had come just a day before he would otherwise have ridden a winner for them.
The one big message he had to offer though, as son of Peter Scudamore, partner to Grand National-winning trainer Lucinda Russell, was that they fully expected to have a Cheltenham winner in the shape of Ultima Handicap Chase candidate, Corach Rambler. The horse had won the race the year before.
Tom revealed that not only were they expecting a repeat in that always-competitive Festival three-miler but were equally hopeful that the nine-year-old would go on to success in the Grand National five weeks later.
Having been in the Charlie Methven role two years earlier – his big contribution was to suggest 16/1 winner You Wear It Well for Jamie Snowden in the Jack de Bromhead Mares’ Novices Hurdle – I was just an observer this time. When challenged by the panel for a bet in the week, I put up Langer Dan and repeated it in the article of March 5/6. I’d forgotten all about it until watching horrified as Harry Skelton drove him home in front of 25 others nine days later!
Scott, however, doesn’t forget - anything! Every snippet of Cheltenham Festival relevance uttered, printed, whispered, rumoured, or overheard is filed away. You can see from the accompanying betting slip, what Mr Ellis did with Tom’s timely bit of info, 4,500 quids-worth, is what he did! Goes to paying towards his trip to the Masters Golf the week before, or at least it should just about reimburse him for the suitcase full of Masters regalia he brought home.
After the fact, Corach Rambler was the obvious winner! [Aren't they always? - Ed.] I had strongly expected Noble Yeats to dominate the race in the way the Lucinda Russell-trained Derek Fox-ridden winner emphatically did. Last year’s winner took an entire circuit and a half to warm up after some surprisingly hesitant jumping quickly had him among the tailenders. They say in racing you can give away weight and distance but never both.
And so it proved, and the much bigger weight compared with last year obviously told. Yet for him to finish a closing fourth, just over eight lengths behind the winner (albeit a winner that could easily have stretched further away if necessary), was admirable, with 17 finishers in the race.
The Irish must have found it hard to believe they couldn’t continue their recent winning sequence, a run of four since One For Arthur in 2017 (one year missed by Covid) also won for Ms Russell.
Although having 26 (two-thirds) of the 39 runners in the final field, and filling second to seventh, six more UK-trained horses finished after them, one better than last year when 18 started for the home team. Best placed then was one-time Nicky Henderson Gold Cup candidate Santini in fourth for Polly Gundry.
For much of Saturday’s race Henderson, having struck on the opening day with Constitution Hill and Shishkin, and prefacing the big race with a bloodless triumph for the superb two-mile novice chaser Jonbon, looked likely finally to collect the great prize after half a century of trying.
His Mister Coffey jumped the Aintree fences with a rare alacrity from the off and was still several lengths clear at the second-last fence but, by then, his stamina reserves had run out. Joined at the last by Corach Rambler, who quickly strode clear up the run-in, Mister Coffey expired to finish only eighth. Gavin Crowell’s Vanillier ran a great race in second.
If we had thought Noble Yeats had made up a lot of ground in the Gold Cup in his previous race, he had even further to retrieve this time and to get as near as he did, reflects greatly on his stamina and resolution. He’ll be back again.
Corach Rambler only usurped him as favourite in the final minutes, despite Noble Yeats drifting to almost double his SP earlier in the day, as the Merseyside police, aided it seems by members of the public, were carting demonstrators away. More than 100 were arrested. As I said, it was obvious really. Corach Rambler had won only narrowly at Cheltenham, but his idling half-length margin was not fooling the chase handicapper who put him up 10lb. That much well in - no penalties after the weights are published - but he’ll be wearing Noble Yeats’ heavy boots in 2024!
Last year, Emmet Mullins worked the system to get his horse in, sold and triumphant. This time it was repeat "offenders", Russell/Scudamore senior and Fox (he needed to pass a late fitness to take the ride having been ruled out of Ahoy Senor’s near miss behind Shishkin, Brian Hughes taking over).
How the champion would have loved to have been asked to deputise in the big one! In the event he sat (I would imagine) disconsolately in the well-appointed jockeys’ room, waiting an hour for his unplaced ride on a 40/1 shot in the bumper. Maybe it’s time for the champion to ride in more of the big races rather than clock up title-winning numbers around the northern gaffs.
One footnote: my good friend Siobhan Doolan, nowadays adding spice to the training regime at her grandfather Wilf Storey’s Co Durham yard, took three days off from her busy multi-stranded life to be the face of Aintree’s owners’ dining room.
I am sad to report that over the entire stretch of the meeting, her efforts to placate owners waiting to be seated for lunch brought a very disappointing response from people who should have known better. If the racecourse executive provides a facility for owners, who after all provide the very expensive horses that put on this greatest of all horse racing shows, that facility should be big enough and have sufficient palatable food to last through a day’s racing. Three days in fact.
Neither consideration was successfully achieved by Aintree. But while the people that organised and prepared the food and accommodation came up short, just one front of house face bore the brunt of what she described often as “owners and their friends taking the piss!”. What do they say, don’t blame the messenger. Aintree’s course executive should offer a serious apology to a very popular young member of the racing fraternity.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/CorachRambler_GrandNational2023.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-04-17 07:02:012023-04-17 07:02:46Monday Musings: Tom Told Us!
This is the second in a two-parter looking at two-year-old (2yo) debut runners, writes Dave Renham. The first part - which you can read here - looked at market factors, gender, sires and damsires. This concluding half hones in on a plethora of trainer data. I have collated data for UK flat racing for six full years from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf and all-weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP), with commission of 5% taken into account.
Overall 2yo debut stats for trainers
I am going to start with a full table of trainers who have had at least 75 two-year old debut runners in the past six seasons. I think it is important to share as much raw trainer data as possible. I have ordered the trainers by win strike rate:
* C Johnston from 2023; ** Jack Channon from 2023
Any trainer from Eve Johnson Houghton upwards deserves credit, with ten of those eleven in profit as well as having a decent strike rate. Sticking with strike rate, Charlie Appleby stands head and shoulders above the rest and I will be digging deeper into his stats later in the piece.
2yo debutants in 5f races
I want to split the data by distance so I am looking at the minimum trip first. There are fewer 2yo races over 5f compared to six and seven furlongs, so that does need to be taken into account. Here are win strike rates for those trainers who have had at least 50 debut runners over 5f:
There are three trainers with excellent strike rates of over 20% (Archie Watson, Clive Cox and the Johnston stable); at the other end of the scale Tim Easterby is a pretty dismal 1 from 118. Not surprisingly Watson, Cox and Johnston have all made a blind profit with their runners to BSP. Having said that, I would personally be a little wary about Watson as the last three seasons have been less good than before with only three winners from 27 (admittedly he has had a few near misses).
Another trainer worth mentioning is Michael Bell. He did not have enough runners to qualify for the graph above, but of his 39 juvenile debutants over five furlongs, 10 won (SR 25.6%) for a BSP profit of £17.41 (ROI +44.6%).
2yo debutants in 6f races
Up an extra furlong now to three-quarters of a mile, or six furlongs if you prefer. Again, a trainer must have saddled a minimum of 50 qualifiers to appear in the table. Here are all the trainers who qualify, this time in tabular form:
As can be seen, the profit / loss figures are all over the place – you only have to look at the stats for Jamie Osborne to see that. Just one decent priced outsider winning can turn a very poor run of results into a profitable set.
Richard Hannon has comfortably secured the most winners, but he has had the most runners over this trip. Four of the six study years have actually turned a profit, with only one poor year which was 2020. Hannon's profits have come from maiden races rather than novice events and he has recorded a 19% win strike rate in the month of May. In fact his winning percentage when combining May, June and July results is almost double that of his August to December figure (13.9% versus 7.2%).
2yo debutants in 7f races
Onto to 7 furlongs now. The data is based on 50 runs minimum once more and the focus is on the trainers with the highest win percentages:
Charlie Appleby remains head and shoulders above the rest, but one other stat that stood out was for the Johnston stable. Their record in June in 7f races has been excellent with 14 debut winners from 49 (SR 28.6%) for a BSP profit of £40.41 (ROI +82.5%). Not only that, 12 further horses were placed. I am wondering if this is down to excellent race placement: June is the first full month of 2yo 7f races and many of the big juvenile stars of the future tend to be seen later in the season. Hence the standard of 7f races in June are likely to be weaker in quality compared with later in the year.
Before moving away from the June Johnston data, it is worth sharing that 12 of his winners figured in the top three in the betting from 32 runners returning an impressive over 90 pence in the £.
2yo debutants in 1m+ races
A look at the longest distances now. The furthest distance a two-year-old runs is 1 mile 3 furlongs and that has only occurred twice in the last six seasons. Just over 70% of races at 1 mile or more are actually raced at a mile.
Let’s look at the trainer splits (50 runs or more):
These are the only trainers to qualify, mainly because longer distance races for 2yos are less common. Indeed, there are nearly twice the number of 7f races compared to races of 1 mile and up.
Charlie Appleby again tops the table to make it a clean sweep at distances from six furlongs to a mile, so now it is time to dig deeper into his record with 2yos making their racecourse debut.
Charlie Appleby's 2yo Debutants
To begin with let us look at the yearly breakdown in terms of win percentage / strike rate:
As the graph shows he has struggled to maintain those staggeringly high figures from the first three years in the review window. However, the figures for 2020 to 2022 are still pretty darn good.
I want to look at jockey data now; William Buick and James Doyle are the two riders Appleby uses the most as the table shows:
As punters, these type of findings are clearly important. Buick and Doyle have scored twice as frequently when compared to all other jockeys that have ridden 2yo debutants for Appleby. Clearly we should focus our attention on the mounts of Buick and Doyle only.
In terms of price, most of Appleby’s runners are at, or near, the head of the market. I have split his results by different Industry SP price bands but with the results calculated once again to BSP.
The table suggests that the very shortest priced runners are poor value. From this past data it seems better to focus on horses that are likely to be priced between 13/8 and 7/1.
Here are some other Appleby stats I would like to share:
2yo debutants over 5f are rare which is why he did not appear in the 5f stats earlier. However, from his 20 5f runners, an amazing 13 won (SR 65%) for a BSP profit of £26.95 (ROI +134.8%).
Appleby has a similar strike rate with male and female runners – male runners have won just over 28% of their starts, females just under 27%.
He does not send that many runners out early in the season. However, if we combine April and May data he has secured 22 victories from only 51 first starters (SR 43.1%) for a profit of £26.48 (ROI +51.9%).
He sends more debutants to turf courses (245 versus 99) but again has similar strike rates. On turf it is 28.6% and on the sand it 26.3%. The A/E indices are almost identical as well (0.91 and 0.92).
Trainers and 2yo debutants in the top three in the betting
Moving away from a specific focus on Charlie Appleby now, I want to examine trainer records when their debutants start in the top three in the betting. This avoids big-priced winners skewing the profit and loss figures. It also makes it a relatively fair comparison between the trainers. I have used 50 or more runs once again as my qualifying mark:
I find this type of table illuminating. Considering the prices (96% of all the qualifying runners were single figure prices), any trainer in profit has fared extremely well. The top five in terms of strike rate - Appleby, Charlton, Watson, Bell and Cox - have secured a profit, and I feel these trainers are worth noting this season when one of their runners is in the top three of the betting.
At the other end of the scale, Andrew Balding has a really poor record: of his 18 favourites just one has prevailed. In Balding's defence, the stable is very much known for horses improving through their early starts. His runners won just 8.2% on debut in the six-year study period, but that shot up to 17.4% on second start, 22% on third start and 26% on fourth start. Not strictly 'on topic' but worth noting.
The A/E indices are shown in the table but I think it worth graphing them as well to see which trainers have been the best ‘value’ according to this metric:
The seven trainers with the highest A/E indices are also the seven trainers with the highest strike rates (albeit not perfectly in the same order). The trainers with the lowest five A/E indices (all under 0.65) are the trainers that fill the bottom five places in the strike rate order. As a general rule, you would expect to see that type of correlation with strike rates and A/E indices, but it does not always happen like that.
Trainer Jockey combinations with 2yo debutants
Earlier we saw the importance of jockey booking when looking at Charlie Appleby debutants. Well, there are a couple of other trainers where we find similar stats. Firstly Archie Watson:
Oisin Murphy has not ridden for Watson for over a year due to his suspension, but it is clear from this data that if he, Danny Tudhope, or Hollie Doyle especially is on board then a good run is expected. The 11.1% figure for ‘All other jockeys’ is poor in comparison.
Likewise when we examine the Gosden stable we see a similar pattern. Robert Havlin has ridden 220 of the 512 2yo debutants and his win record far outstrips the rest:
There is a huge difference in A/E indices, too, with Havlin at an impressive 1.07 and all other jockeys combining to average out at 0.76. The final stat to mention here is that Havlin / Gosden runners have proved profitable over the 220 debut rides to the tune of 34p in the £ at Betfair SP.
Trainers and Courses for 2yo debutants
Data is a little limited here so I would not go headlong into backing every combo in the table. However, I still want to share the most impressive course stats for some trainers. The vast majority have produced a six year profit and all bar one have produced a strike rate of 20% or more. The one that did not was close to that mark (19.35%) and, due to a good sample size (62 runs), I thought it was worth including:
This table is a bit of a 2yo debut Trainer Track Stats, to use Matt's previous trainer-based report terminology. Personally, during this upcoming season, I will be taking note of any of these combinations that have secured a double figure number of wins – I will not back them blind, but I will look at the relevant runners in some detail in order to determine whether I would deem them to a potential bet or not. The Gosden / Yarmouth combo is one I will certainly look out for.
Before I finish, let me summarise some of the key stats this article has highlighted:
MAIN 2yo DEBUTANT PART 2 TAKEWAYS
Charlie Appleby has by far the highest win percentage and he is consistent across all race distances. His 13 wins from 20 runners in 5f races is arguably the highlight despite the smaller sample size.
In 5f races the stables of Archie Watson, Clive Cox and Charlie Johnston have the best strike rates of those with 50+ runners over the six-year period.
Over 6f Charlie Appleby and the Crisford stable are the only ones to have secured strike rates in excess of 20%.
The Johnston stable has had an excellent record in the month of June in 7f races.
Over 1 mile+ Charlie Appleby, Ralph Beckett and the Gosden stable have the strongest looking stats.
Charlie Appleby, Roger and Harry Charlton, Archie Watson, Michael Bell and Clive Cox are trainers who have secured good strike rates with 2yo debutants from the top three in the betting. In addition they have all secured individual profits.
Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute, Charlie Hills and Andrew Balding have poor records with 2yo debut runners which start in the top three in the betting. All are famously patient trainers.
Charlie Appleby does twice as well with juvenile debutants when either William Buick or James Doyle are on board when compared with all other jockeys.
Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle, and the Gosden stable with Robert Havlin are positive trainer / jockey combos.
There were 12 wins from 41 2yo debutants from the Gosden stable making their racecourse bow at Yarmouth. These runners have produced profits of over 92p in the £.
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I hope you have found the two articles on 2yo debutants useful. I certainly enjoyed uncovering these interesting angles. 2yo debutants will now take a back seat, editorially speaking, with my attention switching to 2yos on their second starts. That is next on the agenda for researching and next week I will be sharing my findings with Geegeez readers.
Until then...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/EternalPearl_Newmarket.jpg319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-04-10 19:23:142023-04-10 19:23:14Two-Year-Old Runners on Debut: Part 2
For the whole of the intervening 12 months, I have been insisting that Noble Yeats will win his second Randox Grand National at Aintree on Saturday, writes Tony Stafford. Winner at 50/1 as a seven-year-old last April, he is set to carry 15lb more this time and start at one-sixth the odds. But no matter!
As the legendary Red Rum, half a century ago, and his modern nearest equivalent Tiger Roll showed in their turn, weight is not really the barrier to a repeat win. It’s the aptitude for the fences and a spirit that remains unbroken having run over them, that wins the day.
The three horses had widely differing starts in life. Red Rum, foaled in 1965, started with a dead-heat in a two-year-old selling race at the 1967 Grand National meeting which in those days was interspersed between flat racing and jumps.
It was another six years from that modest start before his epic first win, when Red Rum and Brian Fletcher pegged back Crisp and Richard Pitman from a distance behind as that two-mile specialist ran out of puff on the run-in.
Saturday is his half-centenary and I can still remember that we watched the race in the Managing Editor’s office on the fourth floor of the Daily Telegraph building in Fleet Street. I believe that was the only television set in the entire building and in those days a cup of tea in the canteen cost 10p – amazing, really, how inflation took over after decimalisation two years before in 1971!
I’d tipped him in the paper coming back from the weights lunch the previous month in whatever swish Central London hotel they staged it. Red Rum had 10st 5lb, receiving 23lb from Crisp, the great Australian, trained by Fred Winter. He also won the following year and, after second places to dual Gold Cup winner L’Escargot and then Rag Trade, he completed the hat-trick aged 12 in 1977 under Tommy Stack.
Tiger Roll’s start came a year and a half later in life, in a three-year-old hurdle at Market Rasen, trained by Nigel Hawke. As with Red Rum, he was to change hands before astounding Hawke with what the son of Derby winner Authorized would achieve.
He too won consecutive Grand Nationals as an eight and nine-year-old. He was denied the chance of a hat-trick when the 2020 race was cancelled due to the Covid pandemic. Those two multiple winners were among 14 eight-year-olds that won the race in the period between 1940 and last year.
Noble Yeats was filling that gap, repeating the achievement of Bogskar, the 1940 hero and the last seven-year-old to win before Noble Yeats.
The amazing part of his story was his inexperience over fences. Indeed, his inexperience per se, before his date with destiny. He did not make his chase debut until six months before his Grand National victory, in a 2m2.5f conditions event at Galway, which he won by a neck.
At that point his entire career record had been: second in a point; then third and first in maiden bumpers before a sixth in a Graded bumper and then an easy win in the only hurdle race he’s ever contested.
Following on from that initial chase success, his next win, amazingly, was in the Grand National and the miracle is how trainer Emmet Mullins and the horse’s connections ever got him qualified to run.
The Grand National is a race open to horses aged seven years and upwards (phew, just made it) that have been placed in the first four in any steeplechase of at least 2m7.5 furlongs and must have run in six chases.
Additionally, they need to have run in at least one steeplechase in the current season and have recorded a rating of at least 125.
The cut-off date this year was February 15. So, by around that date in 2022, Mullins and the horse’s then owner Paul Byrne – he wasn’t acquired by Robert Waley-Cohen until after all the red tape had been successfully tied up – had several conditions to fulfil.
His chase programme after the initial win was an unplaced run a in a Grade 3 over 2m4f; sixth in a 2m110y handicap; ninth in the big Leopardstown 3m chase over the Christmas holiday; and then he pulled up in a race the following month. That just left a few days for him to run in a sixth chase and finish in the first four effectively over three miles.
Naturally, original planners Mullins and Byrne had the answer, coming across to England for a Grade 2 novice chase at Wetherby on February 5. In the event, he was comfortably beaten by the smart Ahoy Senor, but Mullins and Byrne knew they would be fine to set up their attractively packaged Aintree prospect as there were only four runners. All they needed was for Noble Yeats to get round.
That he did for a creditable second and with his rating of 148 already well ahead of the minimum handicap requirement of 125, the deal was duly and swiftly completed. He even went off to Cheltenham for a feeler under the not so young amateur who was going to bow out of riding after partnering him at Aintree.
I must say, if anyone saw it coming I certainly didn’t, but here in Sam Waley-Cohen was one of the old-style amateurs who bar his family and business background, would have made a decent fist of challenging for a jump riding title. Instead, along the way he happily rolled up at Cheltenham, riding the 2011 Gold Cup winner Long Run for his father and Nicky Henderson.
His successes at Aintree were even more plentiful, often outclassing his fellow amateurs in the Foxhunters and always seeming to get round whenever he encountered the fearsome fences. Even against the pros, he had possibly the best radar around the big fences. That was one of the qualities Red Rum’s dual winning rider Brian Fletcher also had at a time when it wasn’t so easily achieved.
Noble Yeats was ninth to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima at Cheltenham, in the race before his big win, giving Sam a nice feel, racing wide all the way. Twelve months on, after the year older Corach Rambler was advertising his 2023 Grand National claims with a repeat Ultima success for the Lucinda Russell team, Noble Yeats’ attentions were fixed on much bigger fish.
He started in the Gold Cup, now with new rider Sean Bowen on board and, while never in contention, the way he finished to take a late fourth place, as the front three headed by Galopin Des Champs had their own private battle, was the most eye-catching Aintree trial you could imagine.
You could just about pick him out a dozen lengths behind the second wave coming down the hill for the last time in the Gold Cup and he was still a long way back two from home. From there he finished fastest of all for fourth. On the long gallop home from the last fence down the far side second time round to coming back onto the racecourse for the two final fences at Aintree, I expect his galloping power to wipe them all away.
Last year’s runner-up Any Second Now gets a nice weight pull and the first two home in the Cross-Country at Cheltenham, Delta Work and Galvin, are two obvious top-class threats for Tiger Roll’s trainer Gordon Elliott. But that fourth place in the Gold Cup and his fantastic fast finish was enough to reinforce my long-held belief that here is the reincarnation of Red Rum, exactly half a century from that little champion’s arrival on the Aintree scene.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/NobleYeats_GrandNational2022.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-04-10 07:52:582023-04-10 07:52:58Monday Musings: Another Noble National?
I was going to write the next part of the blog after Aintree, as I was expecting that to be the next time anything even remotely exciting was going to happen, but last week turned into a busier week than I expected it to, writes David Massey.
It started on Sunday, at Garthorpe Point-To-Point. Having been denied my point fix when Revesby was called off during the cold snap this winter, I was determined to go, particularly as the weather forecast was favourable.
If you've never been pointing, you ought to give it a go. Don't worry about getting lost on the way there - once you're within ten miles of the track, you can follow any dirty 4x4 or Land Rover and be pretty sure you'll end up in the right spot. Tweed is a given, even on a warm day, and if you've a dog, so much the better.
There's a good crowd, maybe somewhere between 800-1000 is my best guess, and they are treated to some close finishes. Sadly none of them involve the horses I back during the afternoon, and my best result is the lamb and mint burger (local farm, naturally) for a fiver which is so tasty, I end up taking a pack of four home. Buy local, buy British, go pointing!
Having done the lot in, I nearly bag a pheasant on the way home. He darts out from a field and runs right in front of the car. How I missed him I'll never know. I see him running off in the rear view mirror, seemingly unaware of his near-death experience. Suffice to say, he's been a sight luckier than I have today.
Monday sees me back on the S&D team at Southwell and that too is reasonably well attended. Fixtures between Cheltenham and Aintree normally see attendances go down, as once the euphoria of Cheltenham is over, people tend to wait for Aintree or switch their attentions to the Flat, and the midweek fixtures are particularly hard hit. However, Southwell bucks the trend, and after I do the punters panel with Steven Powell before racing and give Rostello (11/2) in the first, we've a few more happy punters at my joint. As ever, our regular punters get BOG, and it matters not whether you're having £2 on or £200, they all get it. Plenty of books will give you benefits if you become a regular with them, whether that be BOG or next price up.
Joe Dadancer is my nap on the preview and his win gets me some of the Garthorpe losses back. I like him a lot, it'll be interesting to see where he turns up next.
Market Rasen on the Wednesday is my next port of call. The usual A46 (Northern version) bottlenecks around Newark aren't as bad as normal and I've time for a coffee on the way up. This is a mistake, as for the last ten miles to the track I'm bursting for the toilet. Let that be a lesson to you all. Get to the track first, then have a beverage.
The ground is supposed to be on the soft side, but as I drive into the grassy car park and the back end of my Auris steps out in an Ari Vatanen moment (Google, young 'un) I have my suspicions it may be worse than that. After they come back from the first with plenty of dirt on them, I go back through the card and start laying anything that doesn't want the mud. It's a successful ploy, and it also leads me to back the no-hoper Leskinfere at 10 on Betfair three places. When he rolls in a distant third the Garthorpe losses are but a memory. I celebrate with a chocolate biscuit (the best ones are wrapped in foil, another little tip for you there...) and a strong tea.
Thursday sees me at Warwick, which I wasn't intending doing but I need to pick some bookmaking kit up for Stratford on Sunday and the bookmaker I'm working for will be at Warwick, so it makes sense to meet there and collect it rather than run around like an idiot on Saturday. It's a beautiful day and the sun makes me think Spring is finally here. I shall discover later in the week this is not the case.
One of the regular Midlands bookmakers is missing from the fixture, and indeed all Midlands fixtures for the foreseeable. Swannbet, better known as Graham and Natalie to me, will sadly not been seen for a while as Graham, we find out, has cancer. I send him a message to wish him well and hope we will see him back in his rightful place in the ring before much longer. Sport is important, but it pales into insignificance at times, and today feels like one of those times.
Punting wise on the day, it's pretty much straight across for me with three bets that aren't sighted but I do have a few bob on Mr Palmtree on Betfair, as he looks in superb condition. Sadly I give too much back in running but he does at least ensure the day isn't a disaster. On the way home the police are holding traffic on the M69 due to a bad crash near Leicester; annoying as that is, when you pass the accident and see the mangled wrecks the cars are, you always thank your lucky stars it isn't you caught up in it. A 20 minute delay is neither here nor there compared to our health.
Next morning I get a call from Jason on the S&D firm. "Don't suppose you can work Sunday at Ascot, can you?" I'm not keen, if I'm honest, but Jason is desperate for a worker (most of them are on holiday, it turns out) so I'm happy to oblige this once. I'm already booked to work Stratford on Saturday, so it makes sense to stay over and travel onto Ascot Sunday morning.
I do love working Stratford. I think it's just about my favourite track to work. Always a decent atmosphere and as I've said before, the whole crowd seems to have a bet. It's only small money but you feel busy and you can make a book. However, my hearing seems to be getting worse; I was convinced one bloke asked me for two pounds on something, but when he gets a ruck of nifties from his pocket it's clear he's asked me for two grand. I lay him a monkey of it and tell him if he wants more, go and see my boss. He gets on, but his pick loses. He's back again next race, has a grand on the jolly, and watches that finish tailed off too. We don't see him again.
Both results and business are good and there's a little top-up on wages at the end of the day. Pays for the evening meal, and after a poor night's sleep (I never sleep well away from home) it's off to Ascot.
I get there early as I want to do a bit of work in the press room in the morning. Perhaps unsurprisingly the place is somewhat deserted, but that does mean when lunch comes out (chicken, veg, roasties and Yorkshires) there's plenty to go around. That's very welcome as when I go down to the ring to work, it's absolutely Baltic.
The main stand is basically causing a split between the front and back of the place. Round the back, by the paddock, there's barely a breath of wind, the sun is radiating heat and people are outside drinking and eating. Out front, in the wind and shade, there are polar bears running around wearing anoraks, it's that cold.
It's a family fun day at Ascot so you know what that means. Small money, lots of it, and rather than a fiver I make sure my minimum bet for the day is £2. That works, but it also means I'm out of change by Race 2.
Next door to me is Steve Bailey, aka Stevie Stretch. Steve, like me, enjoys these family days and is happy to show the kids how things work (all within the 18-plus boundaries, of course). Two mums are by his joint with three young kids, the youngest of which keeps touching all Steve's change. And like most kids, the more he tells her not to touch it, the more she touches it. I sneak up behind them, gesturing to Steve to be quiet, before sticking my head in and saying, in a stern voice, "I hope nobody is touching the change over here." You've never seen a kid put her arms by her sides so quickly.
Do you remember me telling you on a previous blog how, on these days when you're dealing with mainly novice punters, how they work their way from the top of the board to the bottom? As such, Blueking D'Oreaux, number 1 on the race card and top of the lightboard, is a real punters result on a day like today. Loads have had their £2.50 and fiver each-ways on; the other joint has taken a £100 win bet at 40-1. There's some serious concern we might run out of money, for all that's obviously a good result. I scrape together what I can spare for Jason's four-grand payout and it leaves me with about £300 after we've paid out. I need a result in the next to get the cash flow back up; Black Gerry provides respite, although I'm delighted for the lady who had a tenner each-way as her grandad, Gerry, had passed away earlier in the week, she tells me.
My only bet of the day, Charging Point, looks like winning coming to the last but gets it all wrong and I have to settle for the place money. I swear it's getting colder and by the time we get to the last the place has emptied quite a lot. Get paid, pack up and go home. On the way back I call into Toddington Services for food, sadly I'm in there the same time as about 500 jubilant Bolton supporters on their way back from Wembley after winning the Papa Johns Trophy earlier. So, fast food it ain't, with a 40 minute wait for a Chicken Royale and a drink. On the way back to the car I hear my name called; it is none other than Laura Morgan, trainer of Charging Point. "Caught you in the act", she says, referring to my unhealthy meal. I tell her I thought her horse was unlucky and she agrees. "He's off for a break now", she tells me. And I'm off home, getting back about 8.30pm, with an aching back and legs. Standing around in the wind all day really takes it out of you. Especially at my age...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/CheltenhamFestivalBookmakerOffers.jpg320830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2023-04-04 11:09:342023-04-04 11:09:36Roving Reports: Here, There and Everywhere
Two-year-old (2yo) races on the flat are a bit ‘marmite’ – some people really focus on them, others avoid them like the plague, writes Dave Renham. The issue with 2yo, also called juvenile, races is often lack of form / information. This is especially the case when it comes to a 2yo making its racecourse debut.
In this article I wrote last year I looked at some basic trainer data for 2yo debutants, but did not go into any real detail. What follows is first of two parts where I will expand upon these initial findings by looking at many other areas, as well as updating any figures from that 2022 piece.
I have gathered data for UK flat racing for six complete years from 2017 to 2022 and this includes turf and all weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP for short), with commission of 5% taken into account. [If you have a 2% Betfair account, keep that in mind with the quoted figures]
Market Factors with 2yo Debutants
Let me begin by looking at the performance of 2yo debutants by price. The prices shown are Industry SPs because they fit to a more uniform price pattern – profits / losses / returns are to BSP as previously started:
As we can see, the shortest priced 2yo debutants have been very poor value – those priced evens or shorter would have lost you nearly 20 pence for every £1 staked. There has been better value in bigger priced horses – those priced 15/2 or bigger. It is interesting that the 15/2 to 9/1 bracket has provided five winning years out of six; likewise five out of six winning years for the 10/1 to 14/1 bracket also. The two biggest price brackets proved much more volatile as you would expect with some big winning years and some years with heavy losses.
Now we know using ‘starting price’ as a basis for a bet is not perfectly possible as we do not know the SP or BSPs until after the ‘off’. However, if betting late we can at least get very close to betting at the desired price.
Top three in the betting
Sticking with market factors, I want to do a little bit of digging into debutants who start in the top three of the betting. From the price data we have seen so far it seems unlikely that we will find many profitable avenues. However, as with all stats busting, it is not just positive angles that are useful to find; finding negative stats is equally worthwhile as horses that are avoided due to these adverse findings will certainly aid our bottom line come the end of the year.
I want to share two specific areas in terms of 2yo debutants who were in the top three in the betting. Firstly let's review some course data. I have only included courses that had at least 100 qualifiers. The table is ordered by strike rate:
There is quite a difference between the ‘top’ course, Yarmouth, and the ‘bottom’ one, Sandown, in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. Both courses have similar field sizes and in general it is a fair comparison. Now Yarmouth traditionally has been a course that some of the top trainers target with their juveniles. I am not sure if that is why debutants from the top three in the betting have done well there; however, it is always worth checking course stats in conjunction with other factors to see if we can gain any edge.
Of course, this subset of data is reporting on the last six seasons only so, with course stats, I often back check a different subset of data to see if results correlate. When I went back further and looked at the previous six years (2011 to 2016) I noted that four of the top five courses - Yarmouth, Nottingham, Leicester and Doncaster - all had virtually identical strike rates and A/E indices. Therefore I would hope and expect that similar results will occur this year and in the near future, at these four courses at least.
The second area I want to look at is time of year. The graph below shows the monthly breakdown of the performance of 2yo debutants in terms of A/E indices, when in the top three of the betting. I could have equally shared strike rate data as that correlated showing the same pattern.
The value in these runners clearly lies in April and May. In fact this cohort made a profit in both months, with May showing solid BSP returns of 13 pence in the £. Therefore if you are looking to back horses near the top of the betting April and May seem to be the months to focus on. In contrast June and July have seen very poor results. The A/E index for ALL 2yo runners in ALL races is 0.89 which gives you a useful figure for comparison purposes.
In general though, my personal market advice if using price as a guide, is that there is more likely to be value in those horses that are around the 15/2 mark or bigger. Hence, I would not be put off bigger priced runners, especially if I had other valid reasons for betting the horse. Of course these animals will have a low strike rate, even if they are ‘good value’, so it is not a strategy for the short term or the faint-hearted.
Gender of horse with 2yo Debutants
I always look at this factor when I research anything racing wise. Males as we know outperform females from a strike rate perspective across all race ages / types etc. That does not always mean that you should prefer male runners over female runners as prices will compensate for the general strike rate differential. If we compare ALL 2yo runners in the past six seasons (not just debutants), we will see that males had a win strike rate of 12.05%, females at 9.61%. Let us look at the 2yo debutant figures now:
The strike rates have narrowed, but there is a chasm between the two in terms of returns. Why is this the case? The simple answer is that most of the really big priced debutant winners have been male over the past six seasons. Is this likely to continue in the future? Well, there’s the million dollar question. My guess is ‘not’ for two reasons. Firstly I cannot find a logical reason to explain why males have had more big priced winners in this time frame. Secondly I did back check a previous six year period (2011 to 2016) and for this series of results females actually came out as the profitable sex. Sometimes we have to accept that there is no pattern or edge to be truly found regardless of what the raw profit and loss figures indicate. The relatively lowly A/E number is a strong reminder to 'proceed with caution'.
Sires of 2yo Debutants
Onto sires (fathers of the horses) next. Here are top ten performing sires in terms of win strike for 2yos on their debut (minimum 100 runs):
What is useful about this specific sire data, is that each horse has just run once. Sometimes sire stats can be skewed when horses rack up multiple wins; this is not the case here.
For those of you who have read my sire articles before, most of these stallions will be very familiar to you – Shamardal, Kingman, Dubawi, Frankel are ‘regulars’ when it comes to good win records. Unfortunately, Shamardal won’t be having any 2yo debutants this year or indeed in any future year as he sadly passed away in 2020.
Of course win strike rate is not the only statistical ‘measure’ we are interested in. A/E indices, which we looked at earlier, are another measure I like to analyse where possible. The graph below shows the sires with A/E indices above the magic 1.00 figure:
It is good to see four sires appearing for the second time – Night of Thunder, Lope De Vega, Mehmas and Kingman were all in the win SR% top ten. These four in particular are worth close scrutiny this season when a 2yo debutant is sired by one of them.
Looking in more depth at Kingman, we can see that there has been excellent consistency year by year. Here are his 2yo debutant win strike rates split by year:
His first season as a sire with runners on the track was 2018 so there is no data for 2017. The strike rates show good correlation, which is unusual for sire stats, especially debutant sire stats. One would hope to see Kingman hit the 20%+ mark once again in 2023.
Before moving on from Kingman, it should be noted that his record with these runners is better over ‘further’. Generally his 2yo debutants perform better at 7f or further compared to the sprint distances of 5 and 6f. This is actually the case when you look at all of his 2yo runners as a whole.
Dubawi is a sire who has scored slightly better than one win in every six on 2yo debut, but overall would have lost you 21p for every £1 bet. However, sticking to debutants at races of 1 mile or more, we could have secured a profit of 13p in the £ thanks in part to a healthy strike rate of 21.2% (25 wins from 118).
We know that for all the positive angles we come across there are bad stats too. Indeed, there are typically more bad ones than good ones. Thus it makes sense to look at sires with the poorest records over the past six seasons. Below are those sires who have the lowest win strike rate percentages with 2yos on debut:
Not only do they have low win percentages, but the A/E values are very poor (Adaay excluded). I would not be keen on backing a 2yo on debut if sired by one of these ten. Combining these sires in one group, and excluding any horse that started favourite, their collective record reads just 39 wins from 1285 runs (SR 3.0%) for a loss to BSP of £644.27 (ROI -50.4%).
Damsires of 2yo Debutants
Damsires are the final port of call for this first article. Damsires are the sires (fathers) of the dams (mothers) of the respective horses. The grandfather on the female side as it were – sometimes known as maternal grandsires. Here are the records of all damsires who have had at least 100 2yo debut runners (minimum win strike rate 10%):
There are a fair few in ‘the black’ but, as we know, most of these profits are likely to be down to a big priced winner or two. However, any 2yo making its racecourse bow whose damsire has an A/E index above 1 is worth keeping an eye out for. Nine of the damsires in the table have achieved that – Dark Angel, Sea the Stars, Marju, New Approach, Galileo, Teofilo, Iffraaj, High Chaparral and Barathea.
Galileo has been the damsire of nearly 450 2yo debutants in the past six seasons and it is worth noting that there is a fairly significant difference in strike rates with turf runners versus all weather runners:
The turf strike rate is about two-thirds better than his all-weather win percentage, and there is a clear difference in A/E indices as well. Do not be fooled by the profit figures, however; these have been heavily skewed by two of the all weather winners which were priced at 130.0 and 41.61.
As I did with the sire data, it is worth sharing the poorer strike rates as well – below are those damsires with a strike rate below 6%:
It is perhaps best to avoid these damsires, although I did find some interesting data regarding Oasis Dream when it came to distance stats, as the graph below shows:
Clearly for this damsire, what distance the 2yo debutant is running over makes quite a difference. At the minimum distance, the 10.1% strike rate is actually above the average figure for all damsires. Obviously the 7f and 1m+ figures are way below the average. Hence any Oasis Dream debut runner over 5f should not be immediately dismissed from calculations. Whereas I think you can safely draw a line through most such runners trying 7f or more. Going the extra mile in terms of research will occasionally bring some greater insight that has the potential to keep us ahead of the crowd.
MAIN TAKEWAYS
Very short priced debutants (evens or shorter) have been poor value.
Horses from the top three of the betting have done well in April and May. In contrast these runners have performed poorly in June and July.
In general horses priced 15/2 or bigger are likely to prove better value than shorter priced runners.
2yo debutants sired by Night of Thunder, Lope De Vega, Mehmas and Kingman should be seen as a positive.
Sire Kingman has been extremely consistent and it is worth noting he has a better record at 7f or more.
Adaay, Australia, Bated Breath, Holy Roman Emperor, Helmet, Zebedee, Poets Voice, Twilight Son, Equiano and Heeraat are sires to avoid. This is especially true if the relevant juvenile debut offspring are not favourite.
Damsires Dark Angel, Sea the Stars, Marju, New Approach, Galileo, Teofilo, Iffraaj, High Chaparral and Barathea have all offered some value in the past six seasons in terms of 2yo debut runners.
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In the second and final part of this juvenile debut series, the focus will be on trainers. Until then...
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kingman_NightofThunder_2014_StJamessPalaceStakes.png319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-04-04 08:18:292023-04-04 08:18:30Two-Year-Old Runners on Debut: Part 1
For once, the start of the new turf flat season at Doncaster is not left jettisoned out on its own, writes Tony Stafford. Thanks to the convenient proximity of Easter, Good Friday racing in the UK – they still have refrained from joining in on the holy day in Ireland – features three flat-race programmes this week.
Ranged conveniently geographically apart – in the far north at Newcastle; Home Counties at Lingfield and on turf in the west at Bath – all three are staged on Arena Racing tracks.
I always used to love the early morning Good Friday drive to Lingfield where the All-Weather Championships were held until 2021. Newcastle took over for the keynote fixture last April and for the second instalment, seven “championship” races again carry total prize money of £1,050,000 – one race of £200k, five worth £150k and an opening 3yo Listed of an even £100k.
The last part of the Lingfield approach involved a slow crocodile through the streets of Lingfield village and then location in a massive marquee with some average fare for the invitees. Now Lingfield has a lesser, but still good quality card, entirely of handicaps.
It’s uniform in terms of rating limitations – upper maxima of 80,85,90 or 95 - and with five races of the seven for four-year-olds and upwards, it has been designated the All-Weather Vase meeting.
Last year Chelmsford got the third spot but Bath, where early-season mud is often on offer compared with the hard-baked, non-watered ground that can occur in high summer as it did last year, is back again. This is again a uniform card, another level down in ability terms from Lingfield, with upper ratings respectively of 75, 70, 60, 3 x 55 and a lowest 52 for the seven races.
Lingfield has a total of 173 entered for its septet, with guaranteed money of £65k for four and £45k for the other three, making a total of £375,000 on the day. Maximum fields are guaranteed for five of the races, while a couple might fall a little short.
If anyone doubted how many ordinary horses are in training and how hard owners and trainers are willing to seek a chance to run them, let Bath tell its own story. In race order 42, 30, 72, 80, 66, 47 and 73 horses have been nominated – all handicaps with respectively 17 allowed in each of the first two contests and 14 in the other five. There is no provision for any race division. Total money available to be won here is a straight £200k, including £26,000 apiece for the 0-52 and 0-55’s, and making £1,625,000 for the three meetings on the day.
I wonder whether the Arena management team are happy with their change of venue for the big show. There have been compliments paid about the Tapeta track there in the past but there has not been universal approval of certain aspects of track management in the latest deep winter period. Some trainers have been telling me that the surface has been very different this winter, even vowing not to return.
Maybe that’s why, at Saturday’s five-day stage, only a total of 80 horses were entered for the seven races, collectively worth £1million-plus.
Last year 66 horses contested the seven races on the inaugural Newcastle staging and it does not take much imagination to suggest that it might be hard to match that after the 48-hour stage on Wednesday.
But the most disappointing aspect must be that only four horses are coming from overseas to Gosforth Park. Joseph O’Brien has recent Dundalk wide-margin winner San Andreas in the Mile race while Ado McGuinness has Hood’s Girl, also a Dundalk specialist, in the Fillies’ and Mares’ race, and Harry’s Bar in the Sprint.
Christopher Ferland has recent Chantilly winner Loubeisien entered, also for the Sprint, one of the races in the programme the French used to win for fun in the early Lingfield AW Championship. She is her country’s only entry this time around.
Last year five French and three Irish horses made it to Newcastle, Yann Barberot providing the 10/1 winner of a finish of two short-heads in the 6f Sprint. Joseph O’Brien’s San Andreas finished second in the mile race then, just nosed out by the William Haggas-trained five-year-old My Oberon.
Last week’s article majored on the fact that older horses can have a second rewarding life after being in training in the UK. A year on, San Andreas will be coming back to the North-East to aim at a nice prize. His conqueror from last year has since been moved on to Australia and Annabel Neasham’s stable. Ms Neasham was saying over the winter that she had a host of potential owners waiting to get into ownership of any the horses from Europe that she manages to acquire.
My Oberon was one of those and on Saturday at Randwick racecourse in Sydney, the now six-year-old, running in the ownership names of D F Degenhardt, Hirecha Racing Et Al, which probably encompasses a good proportion of those striving for a piece of the ex-British action, had his finest hour to date.
A winner first time on arriving Down Under in a Group 2 last October, he had a few less rewarding runs until this weekend. Annabel lined him up for the 20-runner Grade 1 handicap, The Star Doncaster Mile and again he was involved in a close finish.
Not quite a nose this time, but a short-head and it made a difference of £955k to D F D and company. Favourite Mr Brightside won it for the Hayes family and Lindsay Park Racing and partners who collected the first prize of £1,3778,000. Neasham’s team were left to slink home with a paltry £423,000 for their trouble and afternoon’s entertainment.
In his UK days, My Oberon took three runs (starting as a late-developing three-year-old) to get off the mark for William Haggas and after that first win he was already rated 109. He never dropped below 108 or reached higher than 114, thus a solid Gr2/Gp3 performer. In his 16 runs in the UK and France he won five and placed five times. He collected £350k, a reasonable figure, which averages out at just north of 20 grand a run, satisfactory enough you would say.
Five outings in Australia have, by comparison, brought spectacular riches to the new owners, who are already up to £563,000 with plenty more to come one would imagine.
Many believe UK and Irish racing are the best equine environments in which to develop talent, but rewards outside the top levels are simply falling behind many other administrations. Owners are almost forced to sell horses of the order of a My Oberon and with what can be earned elsewhere, they do carry a decent sell-on value.
Saturday’s Pertemps Network Lincoln looked an above-average version of the traditional Doncaster flat season curtain-raiser beforehand and the way the first three came away from the rest of the 22-runner line-up suggested it was. It was great to see a revival of form not just for David Menuisier and Migration, a seven-year-old top-weight running off 107, but also for owners the Gail Brown Partnerships.
Gail looks after the winning owners after every race at Goodwood all season but also runs syndicates based on Goodwood. These have been going through a quieter spell, but this big win will have cheered her up.
I say big win, but for a race with the tradition of the Lincoln and its place as the season curtain-raiser it’s a shame to be worth only the same as the average of all seven races at Newcastle on Friday. Migration’s previous most important win came fittingly in a near £40k to the winner race at Goodwood and no doubt if the ground is on the easy side for the May meeting there, he will be back for another crack at one of the bigger pots available.
Until Migration and Benoit De La Sayette breezed past up the stands rail, Awaal for Simon and Ed Crisford, looked like winning a big race on the Saturday after they also came up a little short in a rather more valuable contest in Dubai a week earlier. Their Algiers was second in the Dubai World Cup, picking up £2 million. No doubt Awaal, Arab-owned, will be plying his trade in the Middle East in the future after this fine run off 102.
Doncaster was hard work for the horses and everyone over the weekend, but isn’t it great to have flat racing on turf back again?
I’ll be going to Southwell tomorrow for the first run in the UK for Ray Tooth’s ex-French gelding Sea Urchin, trained by Ian Williams. The champion is booked to ride and I well remember William Buick coming clear down the middle of the track to win on Ray’s filly Catfish at the Glorious Goodwood meeting for Brian Meehan a decade or so ago. I think they will have their work cut out to beat the James Ferguson horse Zoology, but it will be great to see those grey and pink colours on the track again.
To mark the return of flat turf racing to Britain, I've recorded some thoughts on the two big field mile handicaps being run at Doncaster tomorrow. The Spring Mile and the Lincoln are both Class 2 straight mile handicaps and both have 22 runners as I write. The ground is currently soft, heavy in places, with the sky taps still turned on - so heavy might be what we get.
With all that in mind, I share my thoughts in the video below. In it, I share:
- Common features between the races
- Draw / run style biases
- Instant Expert overviews
- Some picks!
[*As ever, if I speak too slowly for you, use the little cog icon bottom right on the video to choose a faster playback speed]
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Johan_Lincoln_Doncaster_April2022.png319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2023-03-31 10:29:202023-03-31 10:29:33Spring Mile / Lincoln Video Preview
For flat fans the wait for the new turf season is almost over, with the Lincoln fixture taking place this weekend, writes Dave Renham. Indeed, for fans of Irish flat racing, it has already begun! For me it is the most exciting part of the year as all the winter number crunching and research I have done gets ‘tested’.
In this article I will be looking at results in April (UK racing only) going back ten seasons, focusing on turf racing only and hence excluding the all-weather. Due to Covid there was no racing in April 2020 so I have gone back to 2012 to get the tenth year of data. Profits / losses have been calculated to Industry SP, and also quoted to Betfair Starting Price when appropriate.
I will be concentrating on general factors including market data, trainers and last time out (LTO) performance. I will drill deeper when applicable, for example to make comparisons with handicap and non-handicap results. So let’s get cracking:
Market Factors in April Flat Racing
So how do fancied flat horses fare in April on the turf? Here is the breakdown of the performance of top three in the betting:
In terms of returns to SP, second favourites have lost the least amount of money (just). To BSP second favourites have again done best of the three, losing just 2.4p in the £. Favourites would have lost you 7p in £, and third favourites a similar amount (7.1p).
Moving onto strike rates, second and third favourites have won as often as they should when comparing the data with other months of the year. Taking the ten years as a whole, favourites have under-performed in April when compared with other months. The overall strike rate for turf flat favourites (all months over 10 years) is 31.7%, so the 29.39% figure for April is just over 2 percentage points lower. I suppose this is to be expected – we have a good proportion of favourites making their seasonal debut after several months off and so fitness and form lines are likely to be a little ‘blurred’. Favourites therefore have not been particularly good value at this time as year, when looking at the whole data set. However, I do want to look at favourites in more detail and, as will be seen, recent favourite performance has seemingly ‘improved’.
Favourites in April
First things first, let me look at the yearly win and each way strike rates. Each way strike rates combine and win and placed horses:
The last five years has out-performed the previous five for both winning favourites and each way market leaders. If I group this 5-year data in a table it may be easier to see the recent trend more clearly:
As the table shows there has been an uptick in strike rate, returns, A/E indices and Impact Values over the past five seasons. The win & placed (EW) strike rates reflect this also with the last five years showing 4.5% more favourites filling an each way position. So a better recent record for favourites, but despite this improvement their figures are still a little shy of favourites at other times of the year in terms of strike rate and returns.
April Favourites by race type
Time to compare handicap market leaders versus non-handicap ones:
As one might expect, non-handicap favourites have by far the higher strike rate. However, returns are virtually identical for both groups in terms of A/E.
One positive stat worth sharing is that if we focus solely on 3yo only handicaps, favourites have actually made a small profit in this month. 3yo handicap favourites have had 194 wins from 663 runners (SR 29.3%) for a small profit to SP of £7.28 (ROI +1.1%). This profit edges up to £40.68 (ROI +6.1%) when betting at BSP.
Looking at a relatively poor favourite stat now from April handicaps – horses that were favourite in 4yo+ handicaps won 23.2% of the time, but lost nearly 16p in the £ to SP (12p to BSP).
April Favourites by age
A look at the age of favourites now. Having seen the 3yo handicap data, I am expecting that age group to edge this:
As I had expected 3yo favourites across all race types have secured the best results – in terms of strike rate, return on investment, A/E index and Impact Value. 3yo favourites actually would have broken even to BSP if backing every single one in April going back to 2012. One age group where favourites perform relatively poorly in this month is 2yos. If we graph 2yo favourites across all months we can see that April is the month with the lowest strike rate, and compared to May to August there is a significant difference. (I have not included March as there were on 13 2yo favourites in total during the time frame).
Hence I would be wary of backing 2yo favourites at this time of the year. This makes sense as, in most 2yo races in April there is virtually zero form to go on, with 73% of juveniles making their debut in this month. This is likely to be a key factor in the lowish strike rate.
With 2yo favourites struggling a little there must have been value elsewhere. Amazingly perhaps, if you had backed all 2yos 5th or bigger in the betting market you would have made a profit, even to Industry SP! OK, the profit would have only been £38 to £1 level stakes which equates to around 3½p in the £. To BSP, though, these figures would have seen around £500 in profit, returning over 45p in the £. On average you would have only had 5 or 6 winners from roughly 100 bets each year, and there were five winning Aprils out of the 10. I wonder if there are any brave punters out there who will try this out in 2023?!
Trainers: April Turf Flat Racing
Let us now analyse trainers on the turf in the month of April. Let me begin by looking at the ten-year figures as a whole. I have included trainers who had at least 100 runs in April and have secured a strike rate of 11% or more, and I have ordered them by strike rate:
There is a fair smattering of profit as you can see – just under half the trainers on the list have proved profitable to SP. It should be noted that this will often be due to the odd big priced winner. Hence let us look at trainer performance with only the runners priced in single figures (minimum runs 60):
There are now nine trainers in profit to SP; however this figure increases to 15 if using BSP.
Let's dig into Charlie Appleby who heads both lists – first, here is his overall turf record in April (all prices). 197 of his 213 runners have been priced in single figures and, as the two tables above show, he has made a profit with all runners and with shorter priced runners only. His figures on the face of it are mightily impressive. Appleby's first year with results was 2014 and he had just one winner from 17 runners. From there he has ‘flown’. Here is the yearly breakdown by Win Percentage (SR%):
Five of the eight Aprils have proved profitable to SP; to BSP this becomes six (2017 profitable). Four of the last six Aprils has seen a strike rate in excess of 35% - Appleby has a good record all year round, but he clearly has his string ready to fire from the get-go.
I find it interesting that Appleby's win percentage in handicaps and non-handicaps is remarkably similar, as the next table shows:
There are comparable returns, too, with both race types returning over 20 pence in the £. This shows a good level of consistency. That consistency can also be seen when we look at his returns (ROI%) to SP across different market ranks:
As the bar chart shows Appleby has seen profitable returns across the board. He definitely looks a trainer to keep on the right side of this coming April.
Before moving away from trainers, here are some additional statistics that will hopefully give us more chance of making a profit through the first month of the flat turf season:
Along with Appleby, the following trainers have been profitable to SP with favourites – William Haggas, Roger Varian, John (JJ) Quinn and Richard Fahey.
Roger Varian has proved to be profitable when saddling runners at Newmarket in April thanks to a strike rate close to one in four. Focusing on his runners that started favourite or second favourite, his record at HQ reads a very impressive 13 winners from 22 (SR 59.1%) for a profit to SP of £25.25 (ROI +114.78%). To BSP this improves slightly to returns of 121p in the £.
Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien has not sent many runners over in April, but as a rule they have struggled with just four wins from 49. He is just 3 from 32 with horses priced in single figures, and has had only 1 win from 16 with favourites.
Richard Fahey tends to be a fast starter in April. He has secured profits at the following courses – Catterick, Leicester, Beverley, Redcar and Thirsk. Not only that, but his strike rate at all five courses has been 20% or higher. Horses from his stable that are making their seasonal debut have also made sound profits to SP; to BSP these runners would have returned you a profit in eight of the ten Aprils. In addition to this, Fahey has secured a 23.5% strike rate with his 2yos and six of the ten seasons would have secured profits to BSP. His overall figures with his 2yos show a 24p in the £ return to SP, 40p to BSP.
If you are looking for a trainer to spring a surprise in April, then Richard Hannon is arguably the most likely. He has saddled eight winners priced 25/1 or bigger in April from only 72 qualifiers. The next best any other trainer has achieved in the time frame is three wins – one of those, Tim Easterby, had 250 qualifiers to obtain those three wins!
Last time Out (LTO) Factors
The final area I wish to look at in this piece is connected with LTO factors. Firstly, a look at the race code of the last run. Now, because all weather racing goes on all the year round, there is a good percentage of turf runners in April that had raced on the sand LTO. Some horses also raced LTO in a National Hunt race as the table below indicates. I have added Betfair SP data to the table this time:
LTO runners who raced on flat turf have the best strike rate but to BSP they are the only group to make a loss. Now, of course, big prices can skew vast data sets like this, and so what the data tell me is that there seems no real edge to what type of race code the horse ran in last time out.
Moving onto last time out finishing position – the graph below gives us the spread in strike rates:
It is interesting to see horses that finished second LTO actually won slightly more frequently than LTO winners (in percentage terms). As a rule the graph shows the normal type of trending down as we go from left to right. LTO winners actually have broken even to BSP, so don’t be put off by a horse that won LTO, even if that win occurred the previous turf season.
MAIN TAKEWAYS for APRIL TURF FLAT RACES
As far as the market is concerned, second favourites have proved to best value, especially to BSP.
Favourites have produced very similar returns in non-handicaps and handicaps.
Favourites in 3yo only handicaps have made a small profit.
2yo favourites generally under-perform, as do favourites in 4yo+ handicaps.
Charlie Appleby tends to start the season in very good form. His runners deserve close scrutiny regardless of price.
Favourites from the yards of Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, Roger Varian, John Quinn and Richard Fahey have been profitable in the past ten Aprils.
Roger Varian has an excellent record at Newmarket, especially with horses from the top two in the betting.
Aidan O’Brien is one of the best in the business but his UK runners in April have really struggled recently.
Richard Fahey is a trainer to generally keep on the right side of.
LTO winners have broken even to BSP during the period of study.
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So there we have it; hopefully this article will help your punting this month. It is not an easy month to make a profit so I would urge selectivity where possible.
However, before I go, as a bonus here are three pointers to the first big meeting of the year at Doncaster.
Favourites have had a poor record in the last ten meetings losing 31p in the £ to BSP. Favourites have performed particularly poorly in handicaps with just 10 wins from 93, losing 43 pence in the £ to BSP. Odds on favourites have made a small profit however (11 wins from 15).
Third, fourth and fifth favourites have all made a profit to BSP.
Richard Hannon is the only trainer to secure a strike rate in excess of 20% from those trainers who have had at least 25 runners (11 wins from 52).
- DR
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Johan_Lincoln_Doncaster_April2022.png319830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2023-03-27 15:14:312023-03-27 15:14:31April on the Flat: Focusing on the turf
Another big international meeting, the fourth of its stature since October, Dubai World Cup night following the Saudi Cup last month, the Breeders’ Cup in early November and the Arc meeting in late summer has been and gone; naturally, with a sideways acknowledgement to Champions Day back home in Ascot soon after the Arc, writes Tony Stafford.
Three conclusions occurred to me after Saturday’s latest extravaganza at Meydan. First, that the world’s biggest races nowadays seem ever more susceptible to older horses. Second, the Japanese can win the world’s most valuable and coveted international events more readily nowadays than anyone else, be they on dirt or turf.
And then thirdly, a question. What has happened to all those multiple-coloured caps of strongly fancied members of the home team that used to mop up at their leisure each last Saturday in March as we looked on, marvelling, from back home?
From the moment Coolmore- and Japanese-shared seven-year-old entire Broome swooped late under Ryan Moore to deny Siskany in the two-mile Dubai Gold Cup, the second race on Saturday’s card, Charlie Appleby and William Buick were reduced to an unaccustomed minor role, which was even more surprising given the astonishing success they had all over Europe in the previous 12 months at the highest level.
True, they did go close once more, when Nation’s Pride looked a possible winner before finishing a creditable, close third behind Frankie Dettori and last year’s runner-up Lord North in the Dubai Turf. This was one race with multiple representation for the boys in blue, with Appleby’s second string in 9th and Saeed bin Suroor’s one runner in 13th place behind the Gosdens’ globe-trotting gelding who is also seven.
A feature of World Cup night since its inception in 1996 has been the ability to attract top horses from around the world. With almost half the races confined to dirt, the poor record of European horses in those races was to be expected, whereas the Americans licked their lips and, from the outset, filled their boots. For the record, Michael Stoute with Singspiel in the second-ever running 26 years ago, remains the only UK-trained winner of the Dubai World Cup itself.
Such was, and still is, the draw of massive money that Cigar, undisputed world champion at six years of age when he turned up, led credence to the event and, over the years, some of the greatest US stars were tempted with Curlin, Animal Kingdom and in 2017 Arrogate, all, plucking the prize.
In all, 11 American horses have won the race, an equal figure with the home team, whose first nine wins (eight for Godolphin, one for Sheikh Hamdan) were all supplied by Saeed bin Suroor. The disgraced Mahmood al Zarooni (replaced by Appleby to such brilliant effect over the past decade) and Kiaran McLoughlin, by Doug Watson, an American who has been based in Dubai for 30 years, had one each.
There was much celebrating when Doug’s 6yo gelding Danyah, a 33/1 shot trained for Shadwell Farm, won the Al Quoz Sprint on Turf. Another winter Dubai hardy annual in the Hamdan colours, Dane O’Neill took the riding plaudits.
The last US winner of the World Cup was Country Grammar, as a 5yo last year, when he was a fourth success in the race for Bob Baffert. Since that big money win, Country Grammer was emphatically put in his place by the one horse of the last couple of years whose presence would have been greatly welcomed, but Flightline is already going through his paternal duties at stud in the US.
Flightline beat Country Grammer on his final unbeaten career start in last year’s Pacific Classic at Del Mar by 19.5 lengths, never mind that otherwise the Baffert horse hadn’t been out of the first two for a couple of years.
Second in the Saudi Cup last year before stepping up to win the big one at Meydan, he followed a similar route this time around. He again ran a good second in Riyadh but on Saturday, carrying Frankie Dettori’s hopes of a fifth win in the race as a 52-year-old in his final year as an international rider, he bombed and finished only seventh.
The winner in what developed into an interesting contest, if one lacking glamour and a serious home challenge, was the Japanese Ushba Tesoro. This 6yo entire from Japan was the country’s second winner of the race, by a widening margin from the Crisfords’ (father and son) year-younger Algiers. The previous Japanese-trained winner, in 2011, was Victoire Pisa.
Algiers is a rarity for a horse trained in the UK, being a dirt specialist, and he warmed up for Saturday with two wide-margin victories on the surface. James Doyle had the ride and for once wasn’t upstaged by his friend and colleague Buick, as this race carried £2 million for the runner- up – the winner got £5.8 million!
Ryan Moore was another UK jockey earning his corn, and there is no question that over the past year the former champion has got his best form back. He timed the challenge on Broome around the outside to a nicety on turf and then switched to an equally masterful display on Sibelius, trained by Florida-based Jeremiah O’Dwyer. Jerry has added two syllables and a new career thousands of miles away, since being banned from riding for 18 months in the UK 12 years ago.
Jerry was a likeable Irish journeyman, based in Newmarket, but his involvement with Sabre Light, late in 2008, cost him his riding career. A horse that was switched from Alan Bailey to Jeff Pearce earlier that year became Jerry’s regular mount, and one on which he won several times initially.
The case, I seem to recall, involved a couple of runs a little later and revolved around the horse not winning when certain individuals thought he should (or was it the other way round? – it was the other way around – Ed.) and then needing to put it right next time, whichever way round that was.
It took ages for the authorities to bring the case. Apart from Pearce, who also lost his trainer’s licence – wife Lydia and later son Simon taking over – another former handler, who had won a Classic some years before but by then had handed in his licence, was also rumoured at the time to have known what had been (or not) happening.
Now all these years later, there’s Jerry, proving that everyone deserves a second chance and the fact he trains Sibelius for Japanese connections suggests he might well progress further in his new career.
If there was an equine star on the Meydan card, it had to be Equinox, winner of the Golden Shaheen over 1m4f on the turf. Even money to win for the fourth time in only six starts (plus two close 2nds), he now has £8million in earnings after dominating this from start to finish.
This was another nice payday for Ryan, aboard Westover, the £1 million runner-up, albeit closer at three-odd lengths than the ability gulf between the horses truly represents. Still, it was a good run for trainer Ralph Beckett’s 2022 Irish Derby winner and nice for Ryan not to have a rear view of him this time.
One unsung hero in the World Cup, formerly owned and bred by Alan Spence and the Hargreaves’ and a regular winner for Clive Cox, was 8yo Salute The Soldier. He was only eighth in the big race but won a Group 1 (his second over there) the previous time and has earned more than £1m for Bahrein-based Fawzi Nass.
Alan Spence had something closer to home to celebrate on Friday when his veteran hurdler On The Blind Side won for the Nicky Henderson stable at 50/1. “Were you on, Alan?” I asked. “Not a penny”, he replied, “but am I Happy? Delighted!”
Just so, Anthony Honeyball, whose debutant Crest Of Glory, a 4yo gelding, won the £60k to the winner Goffs UK Spring Sale Bumper. He strode 15 lengths clear of 18 opponents which included a stable companion by the same sire, owned by a Geegeez syndicate. “He had an awful run!” said the Editor. “We’ll bring him back next season all being well, when we have high hopes of him.”
Oh, the name? It’s Dartmoor Pirate. By the same sire, Black Sam Bellamy as the winner, he was seventh despite the difficult run and is rated pretty useful - which the winner must also be!
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ushbatesoro_DWC_2023.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-03-27 08:30:332023-03-28 17:40:40Monday Musings: Old Stagers
So, how was Cheltenham for you? Game of two halves for me, Brian, with the second something of a disaster compared to the first, writes David Massey. It's normally the other way around; normally I'm grateful to come out of the first two days level, then when the stamina kicks in on the New Course I tend to do better (I can just find slow horses, that's all) as the week goes on. Not this year, though. I could have done with Cheltenham finishing Wednesday night.
Let us start at the very beginning. I began the week at Stratford with my good friend Becky, who I was staying over with Monday night before moving on to Worcester for the rest of the week. I normally stay with her all Cheltenham week but since she moved house a couple of years ago I have to bring my own inflatable bed along, and my back simply won't take a week of that. Last year I was so crippled by the time the Foxhunters came around I could barely walk. So this year I shared a house with Rob and the S&D Bookmaker crew, merely so I could have the luxury of a proper bed at night.
Stratford was windy but I did find a couple of winners to start the week off on the right note and get the fish 'n' chips in with on the way back. Up bright and breezy next morning, I was all ready to get out to the track for an early start but Becky, who is one of the Cheltenham photographers for the week, looked like death warmed up. She'd been coughing a bit on the Monday and that had developed into a chest infection overnight. Cheltenham week is knackering enough if you're fit; if you've not passed the vet, it's a sight harder. I set off, Becky following on later.
I make my first mistake of the week having parked up. Starving and in need of breakfast, there's a chuck wagon doing bacon rolls for six quid. I eagerly purchase and wolf it down as I enter the track. Imagine my joy at finding out the media centre, which is where I'll be this week, is giving out bacon rolls for free to those there early enough. Six quid the worse off, I decide to have one of the free ones, simply so I can average out the bacon rolls at three quid a piece, which hurts less that it did.
I'm with the Sporting Life team this week, which is great, and "Scoop" Linfoot is already busy beavering away. I write up the morning tips with Rory Delargy, based in the dead-tree press room in the main building; for all that the facilities are a little better in there, I'd rather be where I am, based behind the weighing room, as the walk to the paddock is a lot shorter. (Over the four days I shall do over 60,000 steps. Compare that to the Saturday and Sunday that follow where you'll be lucky if I shift me ar*e off the sofa.)
It's good to catch up with people I haven't seen for a year and, in some cases, more, and by the time I've done that and digested Thursday's declarations it's lunch, and then the Supreme.
I've no great opinion on the Supreme but Tahmuras looks really well beforehand and just for a moment I imagine the Brits getting off to a wonder start and giving the Irish a bloody nose on the first bell. It doesn't last long. Tahmuras is well stuffed behind Marine Nationale, the Irish saddling the first eight home.
There's a wonderful moment in the Arkle as the big screen in the paddock reveals Straw Fan Jack finishing with a flourish for fourth, with trainer Sheila Lewis and connections going absolutely bonkers. You'd have thought they'd have won it! How wonderful it must have been for all of them to be in the winners enclosure for such a big Grade 1 event. I was delighted for them all, in much the same way I was a couple of days later for Laura Morgan and co when Notlongtillmay finished second in the Turners. It means so much for the supposed smaller yards when they have horses like these that perform so well on the big stages.
Corach Rambler and The Big Breakaway carry my hopes in the Ultima. The latter is beaten after two fences, some early scrimmaging putting paid to his chances (put a line through this, I still think he could run a big one in the National) but it's deja vu all over again as Corach Rambler storms up the Cheltenham run-in to claim the prize for the second year running.
We all want Constitution Hill to be good and my word, he is, barely coming out of second gear to dispose of State Man et al. Then Honeysuckle brings the house down to win the Mares and it seems the world and his dog is in the winners enclosure, all showing their love for Henry de Bromhead, Rachael Blackmore and the amazing mare.
I'm in the paddock to look at them for the Boodles when, standing beside me, seemingly out of nowhere, is Junglist Matt Hancock. I think about asking what he fancies when I realise that could be a leading question and think better of it.
I like Jazzy Matty in the paddock and invest accordingly. A pleasing result follows as he wins at 18s. Mr Freedom, despite the pilot almost falling off turning in, gets me a nice bit of place money too (where would we be without extra places these days?) and I call it a day on the betting front, heading for the car park as the jolly old favourite wins the National Hunt Chase. A bad day for the books.
Wednesday. Delargy is staying in Worcester too, and I go and pick him up early doors. Sadly the traffic on the M5 is so awful it takes us an hour to get to the track. The free bacon rolls are long gone by the time we are in; in desperation I go hunter-gathering for breakfast and end up with a sausage bap. A bargain at seven notes.
I'm waiting for a couple of friends to turn up in the Vestey Bar around 11am when Pat Neville walks in. He's clearly waiting for someone too. I cannot help but think if his was a Henderson or a Nicholls he'd been getting mobbed by lads asking for tips, but nobody seems to recognise Pat. I go and wish him good luck with The Real Whacker and he thanks me, and tells me he thinks he'll go close. He does better than that as once again, he makes light of Cheltenham's fences in the Brown Advisory and wins by a short-head from the fast-finishing Gerri Colombe. I suspect more people will recognise Pat now. Having backed the Whacker and laid Sir Gerhard for a place my punting is going terrifically, too.
It's a shame that Edwardstone leaves his A-game at home and in the end, Energumene is a facile winner of the Champion Chase. I think we were all hoping for a proper contest and that, sadly, fails to materialise. That's no fault of Energumene, of course, but you want the best horses to perform in the big races and Edwardstone didn't.
The previous week I'd done a piece for the Life with Ed Chamberlin where Ed was utterly disgusted that I'd said Delta Work was the best bet of the week. I'd already had one good bet on him and after seeing him in the paddock, went in again. Turning in I was worried Galvin might do for him but he battled on in a most game fashion to score. Ed childishly sticks his tongue out at me as I walk across the paddock afterwards, but I don't give a monkey's as the nap goes in for the week. I even manage a cheeky each-way fourth on Lecky Watson at 80s in the bumper to finish the day off. My best start to a Cheltenham ever.
If only we had stopped there.
Wednesday night and Thursday morning it rains. Cleverly I get up early Thursday morning, pile into everything that wants it genuinely soft, thinking I'll be in a great position later to trade out of them all. We're in time for the bacon rolls and having tipped the tea-bar lady a fiver when things were going well yesterday, I'm offered two of them. I do not refuse this most generous gesture.
If the nap was Delta Work then Banbridge was the NB, but unsurprisingly he'd been taken out with the rain that had fallen. Money back on most of the ante-posts, so no great damage done. However, once Stage Star wins the Turners and Good Time Jonny the Pertemps it becomes blindingly clear that it certainly isn't soft, and it's only just good to soft, the wind drying things out, and all my morning bets and going to be sunk. The majority of them drift like the Kon-Tiki, and there's no way out of this. Worse, I've shoved them all in multiples, and the value of them now is some way south of the price of a bacon roll. Fugitif offers me some hope in the Plate, but he finds Seddon too good, and by the end of the day I've given back well over half of what I've accumulated in the first couple of days. On the way out I buy a Mars Bar as compensation; it is barely bigger than a Fun Size one. No fun for me today, that's for sure.
Steaks are on the menu Thursday night and Rob tells us about his week so far, two lousy days and one brilliant one. He's confident a few results Friday will see him in front. Rory joins us on the evening and gets pelters from myself for ordering a cocktail for dessert. What's wrong with a sticky toffee pudding? He's not the bloke I thought he was...
I wonder how much that cocktail affected him as at 7am Friday morning I get a text from him. He'd moved hotels the previous day and clearly couldn't sleep. "Any chance we can go early? This place is haunted..."
It is not for me to steal Rory's story, but he was convinced he'd been visited in the night by a cat. "I felt it jump on the bed, then jump over me, and settle down next to me." Having put the light on and seen no cat, he tells me, he started Googling "ghost cats" at 5am and couldn't get back to sleep. On enquiring at reception whether the hotel has a cat, he was told no, "but there was one once". He can't get out of the place quick enough.
By Gold Cup morning there are some tired faces around the media centre. Carol Vorderman appears and does some interviews. Two from the top, please Carol. She's followed in by someone who has been in Love Island; being old I know not who she is, but she seems very sprightly.
Becky, who has been on the Fisherman's Friends all week, looks no better than she did Tuesday when she arrives and looks ready for it all to be over. She has my sympathy. A mid-morning coffee with a friend ends with us chucking £25 a piece into a placepot, which lasts two legs but no further. In fact there aren't many going at all after three legs and the Foxhunters will see the rest of them off, just about. Premier Magic, winning at 66-1, had recently been successful at my local point, Garthorpe. Did I have a penny on? What do you reckon? A tenner each-way on Shantou Flyer, who has been to more Cheltenham Festivals than most racegoers, softened the blow, but for me the week is done. After expenses, a small profit. I hit the M5 soon after to avoid the worst of the traffic and am home for seven.
Aintree next. I'm back on the firm and will be working in the ring, so I'll tell you exactly how small the dresses were on Ladies Day in the next instalment...
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/PremierMagic_CheltenhamFestival2023.png319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2023-03-22 15:51:052023-03-22 15:51:05Roving Reports: The Carnival is Over…
Where to start about Cheltenham? Ever since the race following the Gold Cup on Friday afternoon, I resolved to write about a 66/1 winner that if we bothered (or had the time) to look closely at all the form, we could have been laughing all the way, if not to the bank, certainly to make a dent in our gas and electricity balances, writes Tony Stafford.
Earlier in the day a friend asked me to offer a shortie and a an each-way alternative for the last six races – Lossiemouth had already dotted in when he called. I won’t go into my unambitious, yet unsuccessful, calls, but I did have an opinion on the St James Place Festival Challenge Cup Hunter Chase.
I had a memory of the name Vaucelet, stablemate and chosen entry of three fancies for David Christie, whose Winged Leader was runner-up last year to the famed Irish standing dish Billaway, giving his Northern Ireland-based handler a change of luck. The old-timer Billaway was again in the field and was destined to fall before the action heated up.
Vaucelet had come over to the UK twice for races at the big May hunter chase showcase at Stratford. In 2021 he won the novice championship as a 6yo and a 4/1 shot, while a month after a Punchestown near-miss, behind Billaway, Vaucelet collected the Championship Hunter Chase, sponsored by Pertemps in the 63rd running for the Horse and Hound Cup.
He preceded the first UK win with hunter/point form figures that season of 21111 and since it, he’s gone 113112111. No wonder, you (as I did) might say, he was the 9/4 favourite in the 23 runner field.
Yet hiding in that line up, freely available at 66/1, was a horse that had started 11/4 off levels with Vaucelet in that Stratford novice championship.
This horse, namely Premier Magic, made the running that day and had just been headed before stumbling after jumping the last. He rallied on the flat but could do no better than a close third. He was pulled up in last year’s Cheltenham race but had the excuse of being badly crowded coming down the hill.
When he came back for that second shot against Billaway and Vaucelet, he had since been confined to point-to-points by his Welsh-based trainer and rider, Bradley Gibbs.
If Vaucelet had busily been picking up the pots on offer in the pointing field across the water, our unsung hero had been similarly campaigned. From March 2020 to Stratford in May 2021, his form figures were 21111. Since the defeat there, it was 11111 before Friday. His last win came by 14 lengths in the open at Garthorpe in February when an 8/11 favourite.
Yet he started 66/1 at Cheltenham last week! He was lucky to be clear of the late scrimmaging caused by loose horses, but he battled on genuinely, hardly a surprise with all those wins on his record. Meanwhile Vaucelet was struggling home in seventh.
Take a bow, Bradley Gibbs and Premier Magic. Some of those point-to-point experts will have been either rubbing their hands or cursing their lack of faith having backed or missed such a potential goldmine horse. I must give Jonathan Neesom a call to ask him if he had a few quid on.
Bradley Gibbs trains the horse for his partner’s father and was publicly grateful for the support given to him in developing their yard in Wales. None of the big names at the other end of the ownership rainbow would have been more deserving of satisfaction at their work of the past three years with this son of Court Cave.
As well as a Welsh winner, there was also a better-known Scottish-trained winner as Corach Rambler repeated last year’s victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase off a 6lb higher mark. This was only his 3rd run since and when Tom Scudamore came to the preview night in London he predicted this success, also that he would follow up in the Grand National.
Tom’s father, Peter Scudamore, is partner and assistant trainer to Lucinda Russell, so an element of insider information was involved there. On that preview event, at one point I was asked my bet of the week and repeated what I’d mentioned in my column here, Langer Dan on Thursday; but, by race day, I’d forgotten all about it.
So, what else from the week? I could go through the 18-10 Ireland domination over the home team, or talk about Constitution Hill, Honeysuckle and plenty more, but I imagine you’ve seen and read plenty about all of that. I’ll look for something different.
When the rain came, my thoughts were that on soft ground the potential for, if not catastrophe, then certainly mishaps, would be greatly increased. There were upwards of 400 runners over the four days and the quality of the preparation of these horses was such that only 12 were documented as having fallen. To those, you could add five unseated, with the odd horse brought down.
More predictable was the 80 pulled up, around 20 per cent of the total. Most unlikely was the Ultima which, as I’ve mentioned, was won by Corach Rambler. He headed home the Martin Brassil-trained Fastorslow, Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius and another Irishman in The Goffer, the front four in the betting.
Notably unflattering outcomes for the home team were the opening Supreme Novice Hurdle on day one when the first eight home were trained in Ireland, unusually with Barry Connell the winning trainer (and owner) rather than Willie Mullins. The half-mile longer Ballymore on the second day provided a 1-2-3 for Mullins and he gained revenge on Connell, who predicted his Good Land would win. Eventually, with his horse fourth some way behind the Mullins trio, the status quo restored.
There was never a doubt that the Mullins fillies would dominate the Triumph Hurdle on Friday. Perhaps the most remarkable fact of this race was that all five of the expensively acquired arrivals from France in the spring last year stood their ground, never mind the soft ground.
Lossiemouth pulled almost from the off, but this time getting a clear wide course under Paul Townend, she had far too much class for stablemate Gala Marceau, who had beaten her when she got a nightmare run at the Dublin Racing Festival, and Zenta, a close third. Susanna Ricci, Honeysuckle’s owner Kenny Alexander, and J P McManus are the proud owners of the flying fillies. It was miles back to the first gelding, also Mullins-trained.
The trio of UK runners were 11th, 13th and pulled up.
But there was isolated and not so isolated fighting back where Paul Nicholls and former pupil dan Skelton were concerned. Nicholls won two of the Grade 1 races (Stage Star in the Turners’ and Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett), backing up Champion Hurdle win number nine for Nicky Henderson with Constitution Hill. He was also an excellent second with Bravemansgame behind flying Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs from the Mullins team.
Once again Skelton pulled a couple of handicap rabbits out of the hat. It took Langer Dan three Festivals to win his race in the Coral Cup, but less expected was Bridget Andrews’ (Mrs Harry Skelton to her tradesmen) win on Faivoir, denying four Irish rivals pursuing her up the hill. She’s done it before – with Mohaayed, also in the County Hurdle, also at 33/1, and also trained by Dan Skelton – and is always a name to look out for in these highly competitive races with hosts of dangerous invaders to worry about.
In fact, the Skeltons do it so often, it’s almost as if it’s planned! Some operation that, and they know what’s needed to beat the Irish in any race at the Festival. We can’t wait for the next one.
- TS
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/PremierMagic_CheltenhamFestival2023.png319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2023-03-20 07:15:052023-03-20 07:15:06Monday Musings: Big Priced Winners Hiding in Plain Sight
We're onto Give Back Friday, which is bad news if you're already in negative equity. Traditionally the hardest of the four days, this year Day Four looks as fiendish as ever. Still, where there's light there's hope...
1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)
Time was when the Triumph Hurdle, for four-year-old novices only, could throw up a shock or three. And, in 2019, the winner was returned 20/1 in spite of being unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Nicky Henderson; a year later, in 2020, the winner was 12/1 even though she was unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Willie Mullins. Go figure.
With the advent of the Fred Winter (Boodles) handicap for the same age group, Triumph fields tend to be a little thinner these days: the average field was 26 between 1997 and 2004, compared with 16 since 2005, the first year of Fred Boodles. In the past five years, the average field size has been just eleven runners. Yet this time, we have 15, in a few cases as a result of the Boodles over-subscribing and, therefore, the dreaded 'social runners'.
In recent seasons, only Henderson (twice) and Philip Hobbs have managed to repel the Irish raiders, and this season looks virtually certain to result in another 'away win'. That man Willie - Triumph winner in 2020 and 2022 - and before he was a 'thing' in 2002, with Scolardy, ridden by Charlie Swan - has the market in a half nelson this time, courtesy of his t'riffic triumvirate of Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau, along with four others!
Lossiemouth was considered the pick of the Closutton squad, even though she finished behind Gala Marceau in the key prep, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. There, she endured a difficult transit and Gala scampered clear. There's no doubt Lossie was unlucky in second, and there's little doubt that the margin would have been narrower with a clear passage for her; but the market has them further apart than perhaps they ought to be. Gala Marceau was having her first run away from France when a seven length second to Lossiemouth the time before, and she would have narrowed that margin the last day regardless of clear or troubled trips in behind. She has more experience and could improve again.
Blood Destiny is harder to fathom, having not yet faced Graded company. He was second to Bo Zenith, whose limitations have since been exposed, in France before Willie sent him unbeaten in two. He won his maiden by five lengths in a field of 20 from Sir Allen (two from two since), and then sauntered 18 lengths clear of 131-rated Common Practice and subsequent Adonis Hurdle winner, Nusret.
Still Willie has more. Zenta won a Listed hurdle at Auteuil, jumping flawlessly, and was again brilliant - apart from annihilating the flights in the straight! - at Fairyhouse (Grade 3) last time. I wonder if the sun was in their eyes that day because those blemishes were out of character with everything else she'd done. Mullins suggested it might have been because she was in front, in which case she'll be ridden patiently in the Triumph. She has a similar profile to Burning Victory and is a big price in that context.
Milton Harris has enjoyed an incredible renaissance in the past two seasons, plenty of which is down to his inspired campaigning of juvenile hurdlers. The flag-bearer in that discipline this term is Scriptwriter, bought off the flat from Aidan O'Brien and a winner of his first two hurdle races. That double included the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle here; but he's since run a close second to Comfort Zone - again at Cheltenham - and, more concerningly, was thumped in the Adonis. Perhaps that more speed-favouring hurdle track did for him, or maybe he was feeling the effects of some hard races; either way, he's now a precarious proposition in this company.
The rest don't look good enough, though Je Garde is a total unknown after a debut third at Auteuil. The winner has won her two starts since, and the runner up won next time, too, all in and around Paris, so the form - in French terms at least - stacks up.
Triumph Hurdle Pace Map
Not one to take too literally with the limited amount of form on the table; but it would be wrong-headed to think that (at least) one of the Willie's won't go to the front. It might be Blood Destiny, but not necessarily.
Triumph Hurdle Selection
This is a Willie cartel. It's not a question of whether he wins but with which of his many options he does so. Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau should be in close proximity to each other, while Zenta and especially Blood Destiny are unknowns at this level and could be better or, more probably, worse than the G1 proven pair. Lossiemouth is the most solid and probably ought to be favourite on track performances; but obviously the yard has a line on the perceived hierarchy.
Suggestion: Tricasts or trifectas with Lossiemouth/Gala Marceau, and Blood Destiny/Zenta, might be a way to get almost everything right about the race and still lose money!
*
2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)
For such an open handicap, this race has been dominated by a handful of trainers in recent times. Paul Nicholls bagged four of them between 2004 and 2014, Dan Skelton - Nicholls' protégé - claimed three of his own between 2016 and 2019, and, of course, Willie Mullins has his fingerprints all over this trophy as well: six wins since 2010. That's 13 of the last 19 County Hurdles shared among them.
If we, sensibly, extend the sequence to 20 races to render it slightly less arbitrary, we will note that six of the remaining seven renewals were won by another Irish trainer. So, in the past two decades, the score reads W Mullins 6, rest of Ireland 6, P Nicholls 4, D Skelton 3, rest of UK 1. This is a handicap that has been contested by 24+ horses in all but one of those 20 years. Wow.
My shortlist is Sharjah, Hunters Yarn, Path d'Oroux and Pembroke.
Sharjah is top weight, and that's because he has been there, seen it, done it. He's in the Arctic Fire mould of Willie County winners, as a dual Grade 1 winner just 15 months ago. Though he might be a touch below that level now, he's still run close to State Man twice this season before a lovely trial for this at Gowran last time. He's going to cruise all over these through the race and then it's a question of whether either of age and/or weight tell in the closing stages. They might not.
Willie also saddles Hunters Yarn, a high class novice and winner of his last two hurdling starts, most recently a Listed novice at Navan. He bolted up there, in a small field, and was 13 lengths too good for two dozen rivals on his previous run; but this is a significant step up in class. The fact he's handled a big field is a plus and I have already backed him; I'd be less attracted by his current odds from a value perspective, however.
Lower down the field is the potentially very kindly weighted Path d'Oroux. This fellow won a bumper and a maiden hurdle, both in huge fields, before his sights were raised to Grade 1 novice company. He pulled up behind Supreme winner Marine Nationale on his first attempt, and was then fourth to Supreme runner up Facile Vega on his second G1 try, beaten far enough. An easy score in lesser grade since will have boosted confidence and he might be a 'lurker' for his shrewd trainer, Gavin Cromwell.
The best of the British could very well be the Dan Skelton-trained Pembroke, whose profile screams County Hurdle. A lightly raced novice having won his bumper this time last year, he was seventh to Grade 1-winning Tahmuras on seasonal bow. He then easily won a pair of novice hurdles, one in a big field, before running second in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day over two and a half miles. That will have been a perfect prep for this and, if anyone can from this side of the water, Dan can, with easily the best race record in the past decade.
Many more can win, natch, including Filey Bay, an Emmet Mullins-trained runner who has done everything he can to show the UK handicapper he's not as good as he actually is, while still winning twice and running second in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He also has a lovely racing weight but a commensurately skinny quote.
County Hurdle Pace Map
The Chris Gordon pair may be to the fore, as might something from the Mullins quartet; and so might a number of others. This is unlikely to be a pedestrian gallop.
County Hurdle Selection
The more I look at this, the more I think old boy Sharjah (8/1) still retains more than enough talent to overcome his weight allocation. He has no secrets from the handicapper, but sometimes the good ones just win, don't they? And I think 9/1 Pembroke is sure to run well, even allowing for the hard time UK novices have had against their Irish counterparts. He's with the right man, and has a featherweight to carry. I'll probably have a small bit of 16/1 Path d'Oroux as well. Keep the extra place concessions in mind again here.
Suggestion: Back a few each way with extra places, perhaps including some/all of the above trio.
*
2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
The Spuds Race. Ten years ago, At Fishers Cross won at a starting price of 11/8. Since then, eight winners have returned a double figure SP, including 50/1 and 33/1 twice. Willie Mullins has had winners at 16/1 and, last year, 18/1 since 2017. It's that sort of a race.
There are lots of credible horses at the top of the market, notably another Emmet green and golder, Corbetts Cross (who did remarkably well to win over two miles last time), Hiddenvalley Lake and Favori de Champdou. Literally nobody will be shocked if one of those, or Three Card Brag or Embassy Gardens, wins. But that's not the way to play this race, is it?
We need to ask, and answer, the question, "why do so many big prices win the Spuds?"
My contention - and a lot of other peoples', also - is that it is to do with the juxtaposition of pace between the trial races and the Albert Bartlett itself. In plain English, five runner 2m6f Grade 2's do not translate well to 16-runner three mile Grade 1's. In the latter, they go faster and demand less class but more stamina and steel.
A quick look at some of those big priced winners reveals an identikit of sorts:
The Nice Guy was stepping up more than half a mile in trip after winning a huge field maiden
Vanillier was another big field maiden scorer before getting outpaced in an 8 runner race. Was wrong in G1 before Cheltenham
Minella Indo was 3rd in small field maiden and 2nd in a small field Grade 3 (3m) before relishing this stiffer test
Kilbricken Storm won at Cheltenham (3m) before getting outpaced/not handling heavy in G1 (2m5f)
Penhill had actually won a small field 3m G2 on his prior start and was just a big price on the day
Very Wood was stepping up to 3m for the first time having finished 3rd of 3 over 2m4f
Small field preps, up in trip seem to be the main clues. Let's see if that can be applied to anything at a bumper price this year...
Sandor Clegane fits the bill but is too short a price having run third in a G1 last time. I'm unashamedly swinging at the big odds here and obviously that probably means a losing bet; but the risk/reward ratio is in our favour based on the nature of the beast.
Gigginstown-owned and Gordon Elliott-trained is Search For Glory, keeping on in third behind subsequent G1 winner and Ballymore fourth Good Land over 2m4f; and then keeping on for a much closer third over 3m in a five-runner Grade 3 last time. He's very interesting for this assignment.
Affordale Fury is trained by Noel Meade, who saddled 33/1 Very Wood in 2014. A winner from the front in a 14-runner maiden (2m6f, soft), he then fell at the last when contesting in a 2m4f G3. Most recently he was outpaced all the way in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas (2m4f, soft) but made some minor headway. I'm not sure that's good enough even when looking through the big-priced prism.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Expect many fewer than the number which start to finish. There is plenty of pace on, and it will be the tough and hardy blokes over the classy but flimsy snowflakes - if you'll pardon the phrase - that prevail.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection
The horses I'm interested in are all far less credible winners on the evidence of the form book, so if you're following me you need to know they might bomb out completely. In that scenario, win only is the way to go (and we can cry together later when rounding out the minor podium positions!!) - and I'm going with Search For Glory and Sandor Clegane against the top of the market. This is a race where it feels like we'll have a bit of a chance with our windmill-tilting; at least, it often is that way.
Suggestion: Back something that has been getting outpaced in smaller fields and/or over shorter trips. 25/1 Search For Glory and 14/1 Sandor Clegane are my guesses against the field. Lots of more obvious horses, so this is a bet where I'm happy to wave goodbye to the tenner.
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3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)
This is the big one, the Blue Riband. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of the sport and is always a fantastic spectacle, though winner-finding can be tricky.
This season, one horse towers above the rest in terms of his chance; that horse is Galopin Des Champs. Trained by, you guessed it, Willie Mullins, Galopin Des Champs won the 2021 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and would have cruised home in the Turners Novices' Chase a year ago but for falling at the last. Since then, he's won three straight Grade 1's, a novice at Fairyhouse's Easter fixture and two opens this campaign, the John Durkan and the Irish Gold Cup.
The margin of victory in that trio of G1 was scores was 18L, 13L and 8L, and he appeared to answer the stamina question with his three mile win last time - partially, at least. The Gold Cup is, of course, three miles two and a half furlongs, and that's another quarter mile and more than he's gone to date. So will he stay? That's simply not an easy question to answer. His sire, Timos, has had no other runners in Britain or Ireland; himself a German-bred (by Sholokhov out of a Surumu mare), he raced in lower Group class on the level at ten to twelve furlongs. His dam, Manon Des Champs, was by a US-bred stallion, Marchand De Sable, who won a heavy ground ten furlong Group 1 as a two-year-old. Helpful? Not really, I know. Where I get to is that there must be at least some chance he won't stay in a truly-run Gold Cup, especially if the going is on the softer side. But if stamina holds, he is the clear form pick.
There are pro's and con's with all his main market rivals. Let's consider a few, starting with A Plus Tard. The pro's are that he won last year's Gold Cup and was second in the race a year prior; thus, we know he stays, we know he handles the track and we know he has the class to win the race. But the con is a big one: he has only been seen once since this day last year, when bombing out completely in the Betfair Chase, a race in which he'd pulverised his opposition twelve months earlier. Add to that the fact that he was due to run at Christmas - his trainer related to attheraces.com, "he got a bang that ruled him out of Christmas, so we said back in January that we’d go straight to the Gold Cup". You've got to take a lot on trust to side with A Plus Tard at this stage against something of a changing of the guard - some high class second and third season chasers.
One such second season chaser is Bravemansgame, winner of the King George in dominating fashion at Christmas. A look at the Paul Nicholls-trained star's form profile renders most of the names he's been called grossly unfair: as well as that G1 King George, he's won the G1 Challow Hurdle, the G1 Feltham/Kauto Star, and the G2 Charlie Hall. His sole Cheltenham run was at the 2021 Festival when he was third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore. He tried to make all that day in a bigger field than he's typically faced, and was spent in the run to the line. This season, he's raced more patiently under Harry Cobden, and followed a gutsy win at Wetherby with a classy one at Kempton.
But is he a "flat track bully"? Yuk, it's such a horrible phrase - I apologise for using it; and I only do it to counter the barb. As you can see from the image below, in the 'Profile' section, he's only run on flat tracks over fences - that means he can't handle undulating tracks no more than a horse encountering different underfoot for the first time.
What it does mean is we don't know whether he'll handle it or not; but what we do know is that he has excellent form this season, stays pretty well, jumps well, has class and can be ridden wherever. Given his odds, that's a lot of positives on which to take a chance that he might not handle the track.
This time last year, Noble Yeats was finishing slightly better than midfield in the Ultima Handicap Chase, which is not a well known springboard to the Gold Cup! Of course, he followed that effort up with a dazzling 50/1 triumph in the Grand National. It didn't pan out first time this season at Auteuil but he then doubled up at Wexford (Listed) and Aintree (Grade 2) before running a fair third in the G2 Cotswold Chase in late January. That looked every inch a prep - think last season's Ultima - for his spring targets, which are this race and a defence of his National title. Noble Yeats obviously stays well and he handles any ground, too. It could reasonable be argued that his best form is on flat tracks, too, though.
Stattler was a staying-on second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup and won the NH Chase at last year's Festival; so he is another second season chaser and has stamina in abundance. He has also demonstrated his aptitude for the track, albeit Old and New courses here are different tests; and he seems to handle most terrain. This season he was just pipped in a sprint (relative, it was heavy ground) finish over 2m6f before beating all bar GdC last time: his is a nicely progressive profile.
Running here rather than the Ryanair, where Conflated fell a year ago when likely booked for second, is a nod to the regard in which his trainer, Gordon Elliott, holds the horse. A look at his form implies this is the right race: a pair of three-mile Grade 1 wins at Leopardstown have been supported by a silver medal in the 3m1f G1 Aintree Bowl, and it's not impossible this longer trip will eke out a couple of pounds further improvement. If it does, he's another who figures on the premises.
Lucinda Russell trains the hugely popular second season chaser Ahoy Senor, second in last year's Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and winner of the G1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This campaign started on the back foot with a hard race in the Charlie Hall, the mark from which was probably left when he ran flat enough at Aintree and Kempton subsequently; but he got right back on track last time when beating Noble Yeats and Sounds Russian in the Cotswold Chase. The problem is that Sounds Russian, though progressive, is some way short of the ability required here; and, further, that Noble Yeats is expected to be a different proposition fitness-wise this time. All that said, Ahoy Senor does have a chance to control the pace and, if doing that easily, may be difficult to shake off in the finish.
One of the great under-rated horses of recent Cheltenham Festivals is Minella Indo. Winner of the 2019 Albert Bartlett (at 50/1!), he showed that was no fluke when running up to Champ in a memorable (for all the wrong reasons if you, like me, punted him) 2020 RSA Chase. Then, at the top table, he won the Gold Cup in 2021 from A Plus Tard, and got closest to that one last year - granted, that was no closer than 15 lengths. He's only had one run this season, a win, in the previously referenced New Year's Day Chase at Tramore. Trainer Henry de Bromhead is calling his quiet lead up "the best preparation he's ever had for Cheltenham" and, even aged 10, his Fez form of 1212 commands plenty of respect: he's been here and got the T-shirt, so to speak.
Two and a half lengths behind Minella Indo last year, and nearly twenty back from A Plus Tard, was Protektorat. On the face of it, he has a mountain to climb; but he was only seven then and one year more mature now - a good age for a Gold Cup challenger. He barrelled clear of the Betfair Chase field in November, scoring by eleven lengths, but was behind Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats in the Cotswold Chase on his sole run since. He was sent off 5/4 favourite there, so presumably was fit enough; nevertheless, he's sure to come on for the run and is another on a very long list of place possibles and, on the Haydock run, not out of it for the win.
There are others with good form that doesn't quite match up to a Gold Cup. Royale Pagaille will again have his followers - all of them rain dancers - and he may again lollop into fourth or fifth; but he's unlikely to get the pace setup, though he may get the deep ground, he needs to outstay smarter oppo.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map
It might be that Ahoy Senor gets a free hit on the lead, which would be optimal for his legion supporters. There is a group of others who like to race handily and it's no more than evens that something from that cohort contests with the Senor.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection
A very tough race to weigh up. If you think Galopin Des Champs will definitely stay, there's your bet as he's looked a Rolls Royce for a couple of seasons. If you don't, or you want to bet something each way, it's trappier. You're asked to take a lot on trust with A Plus Tard, you have to assume Bravemansgame will handle Cheltenham's undulations, or you have to believe that the likes of Minella Indo and Royale Pagaille still retain sufficient verve to mix it with the kids.
Or you can just back Noble Yeats each way and see how close he gets.
Suggestion: Back 9/1 Noble Yeats each way with four or, preferably, five places.
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4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)
The hunter chase gold cup (small 'g', small 'c') and always a good - if sometimes faintly bonkers - watch. As with the Gold Cup itself, the previous renewal is often the best form guide. Twelve months ago, it was heartbreak for David Christie and Winged Leader as his notable lead was whittled to nothing a stride from the line and Billaway pipped him. Billaway himself was certainly not winning out of turn, having been second in 2020 and 2021. Although he's eleven now, that's more a positive in a race where the last eight winners were all aged ten or eleven and where there have been three back-to-back winners since 2012.
After Cheltenham last year, Billaway won a thriller against another rising star from the Christie yard, Vaucelet, but, on debut this season, he was thrashed by yet another Christie inmate, Ferns Lock. Since then, Willie Mullins' star hunter has somewhat unconvincingly despatched a lesser field. Though he always brings his 'A game' to Cheltenham, he arrived in slightly better nick the previous twice, I feel. He tends to race on the lead and there might be a little more contention for that this season, which could add a further challenge to his defence.
Vaucelet is the chosen one of Christie's three and, aged eight, would be the youngest winner since Salsify in 2013 (who had also won aged seven a year earlier). Based on his form, youth won't stop him and, as a winner over three and half miles in the Stratford Champion Hunter Chase late last spring, he ought not to fail for stamina either. He's progressive where Billaway might be slightly on the downgrade, the fine margin between them at Punchestown a year ago perhaps not enough in the champ's favour now.
The British challenge - historically strong, as shown by four of the past six winners - is headed up by Chris Barber's Famous Clermont. Another eight-year-old, he's sent the likes of Shantou Flyer and Envious Editor packing this season, including when romping to victory in the Walrus Hunter Chase, a high class contest in the sector run in February. Famous Clermont made a few errors in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham's April hunter chase meeting last year and was eventually pulled up (as the 6/5 favourite), and his continued propensity for a mistake is a niggle.
Paul Nicholls has won this four times since 2004, with Earthmover, Sleeping Night, and Pacha du Polder twice. Since PdP's last win, in 2018, Nicholls is 0/4, though Bob And Co failed to jump round as his sole representative in the past two seasons - at short prices both times. This year, the Ditcheat yard have Secret Investor as their main hope. Now eleven, all of his best form - both as a hunter and previously under Rules - was on decent ground, so the wet week in the run up may be a concern. Cat Tiger, for the same yard, handles softer terrain and, while seemingly a little out of form this term, he's been racing in Class 2 and 3 handicap chases under Rules. His 2nd of 23 in last year's Aintree Hunter Chase (2m6f) gives him a squeak if he stays this far.
Bob And Co is now with Harry Derham, Nicholls' former assistant and, if he can jump round, he'd be a place player even at the age of 12. But I don't like backing horses who fail to complete.
Meanwhile, former Gold Cup runner Chris's Dream has won two point to points recently and comes here in form. He has obvious back class but he didn't get home in the Gold Cup and has never won over this far. His last win of any description under Rules was more than three years ago.
One of the first questions in this race is often, "What's Jamie Codd riding?" Answer: The Storyteller. A former Festival winner on soft ground, his stamina for this longer shift is presumed rather than established; but we do know he handles the other conditions and represents the most robust of connections: Gordon Elliott still trains him.
Rocky's Howya is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse getting some love on the preview circuit. He's young - seven - and been bashing up his rivals in point to points to a fair level of form. But I feel he should be a bigger price: he's one for the guessers - which, in fairness, most of us are in this race, if not the other 27 at the Festival!
A couple to mention in the long grass are Dorking Cock, Mighty Stowaway and I K Brunel. Dorking Cock has form with Vaucelet that gives that one only a small edge over this bigger priced runner. It's possible - perhaps likely - that Vaucelet was under-cooked that day; and DC had previously been thumped by Billaway. Still, he stays and handles all ground. Mighty Stowaway was third last year and represents the top UK point yard of Alan Hill; he might just be regressing aged twelve now but he'll surely run better than his early season form. From the same yard and still on the ascendant in this sphere is I K Brunel. He was a 130-rated chaser last season for Olly Murphy and comfortably beat Not That Fuisse in a hunter chase last time. He probably wants quick ground.
Maybe the ground has come right for Shantou Flyer, a horse that loves it soft and stays very well. He's 13 now, which is probably too old, and he's ridden by Paul Nicholls' daughter, Olive, who will obviously have grown up around horses and be very well schooled.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Pace Map
Pinch of salt pace map because we don't have point form so these are Rules races only.
Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection
I hope Vaucelet wins, for connections of Winged Leader who was so cruelly denied on the line last year; but he's a short enough price. Billaway is an obvious horse to run close and is around 8/1 - he was the horse to pip the Leader last year, and has run 221 in this the past three years. In the longer grass, horses like The Storyteller and perhaps Shantou Flyer may still have enough gusto about them to hit the board.
Suggestion: Back 8/1 Billaway each way with extra places and you'll probably get close to the winner's enclosure and hopefully the payout window.
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4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)
The Festival is pretty much over for me at this point, I have to concede. I have little interest in the Mares' Chase and know I'm not good enough to handicap the Martin Pipe. So let's keep it brief...
Allegorie de Vassy is a classy mare, winner of all four races - two hurdles and two chases - since moving from France to Willie in Ireland. Her two fencing scores were in Grade 2's, the same level as this, and she bolted up on both heavy and yielding so there are no grounds for concern, as it were. She has jumped right on occasion which, given this is a left-handed track, would mean she concedes a few lengths at her obstacles potentially: that, clearly, is undesirable for all that she may have a few lengths in hand of the rest.
The obvious danger is Impervious, herself a winner of three straight, including in G2 and G3 the last twice. She handles soft very well and had the beating of Grand Annual runner up (should have won) Dinoblue by three lengths two back. She's tough and seems to stay well.
Jeremys Flame is tough and consistent, graduating this season from handicaps to win a Listed race at Huntingdon last time. She's nine though, a veteran of 29 races, and her form is not as compelling as the other pair. She just about fits on the pick of her ratings, however.
Magic Daze has to prove she staze - sorry, stays; and the rest, most notably last year's winner Elimay, need to revert to the pick of their back class to feature. Zambella does look like getting her optimal soft turf and 2m4f trip
Mares' Chase Pace Map
A good bit of pace on, which will test jumping. Allegorie de Vassy, Magic Daze and Zambella are expected to be front rank.
Mares' Chase Selection
This looks between the top two in the betting but they're not that far clear on ratings. What they do have is more scope than most of their rivals, and I think Impervious looks slightly better suited to the task, particularly with no reservations about her jumping (please don't let me have jinxed her jumping).
Suggestion: Back 5/2 Impervious to win, or retire to the bar and watch.
To the lucky last. Erm. We're probably looking for a potential Grade 1 horse of the future. The alumni for this final race includes Sir Des Champs, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic, Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge. All those mentioned were Irish-trained, too. So that will be my starting point.
The top three in the betting are all defensively short at time of writing: around 5/1 each. They are Spanish Harlem, Imagine, and Cool Survivor.
Spanish Harlem cost €360,000 at the Arqana sale last summer, and he'll pocket... checks notes... £39,000 if he comes out on top here. More to the point, if he does win, he's probably smart enough to be contesting for bigger purses in the not too distant future. He's gone to Willie's and, though a hurdle winner in France already, has yet to add to that tally in three races since the stable switch. Of course that might very well be by design and, in any case, he's been running in small fields where his French victoire was against 16 rivals.
Gordon has the other two at the top, Imagine another to pepper the places without winning in recent efforts. He steps up from two miles to this two and a half, and was still entered in the three mile Albert Bartlett until 48 hour decs: clearly connections have few reservations about his stamina. He's been second in a Grade 3 and a Listed race since November and this will have been the plan.
Cool Survivor is also a Gordie runner and he, too, was in the Spuds before routing here. He finished fourth in a 2m6f G1 at the DRF last time and, prior to that, had won and been second (G3) over three miles. This step back in trip is a small niggle for a horse who, while doubtlessly having a splash of class, seems to stay very well.
At bigger prices, Firm Footings is in the same ownership and trainership (sic) as Imagine; he's had plenty of practice in defeat and steps up in grade for handicap debut with, like many others, the handibrake presumed off now. And Haxo is another Willie possible. Like all those previously mentioned, he's making his handicap bow after a couple of mark-securing efforts. His sixty length sixth in last year's Ballymore doesn't read as promisingly as some of the other form lines but he could still run well.
If there is to be a British winner, it's most likely to be from the barn of either Dan Skelton or Paul Nicholls. Skelton saddles two, Molly Olly's Wishes and West To The Bridge, but both are hooj prices and not remotely obvious winners even allowing for Dan being the UK Man in this setup. Dr Ditcheat has a credible contender in Irish Hill, a highly progressive handicapper that has won his last three, including most recently in a good Class 2 at Ascot. His problem is that we know pretty much what he is: he could improve three or four pounds but the winner here is probably going to find eight to ten pounds on its published rating.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map
Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect for a big field handicap hurdle at Cheltenham; perhaps more so because it's a conditional jockeys' race.
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection
I obviously don't know. The market has been a fair guide to the Martin Pipe winner, with seven of the last nine sent off 12/1 or shorter (and one other at 14/1). I'd rather have a small interest in the top of the market than set fire to money lower down the lists; and I'll be a bit left and right by this point anyway - Friday is Brown Bear hostelry day!
I'm not trying to be too clever here, and I've had a quid each on 9/2 Spanish Harlem and 5/1 Imagine, win only. I told you I wasn't trying to be clever.
Suggestion: Back Spanish Harlem and/or Imagine, win only. Or bet something else. It's your life, after all 😉
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And so, the end of a testing but glorious four days is in sight. Win or lose, it's a pleasure to fritter so many hours in the form book, and to share my cogitations with you: it's normally the case that I get many more points for the 'working out' than for scribbling down the correct answer. But, for weirdos like me (and maybe like you, too), the joy is almost all in the working out; in the puzzle. All the same, it obviously helps when we land on a fat one or two.
Be lucky.
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/galopindeschamps_langerdan_cheltenhamMartinPipe2021.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2023-03-16 10:01:552023-03-18 11:26:27Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips
And so to the second half. Still 14 races to go at, including the Stayers' Hurdle, Ryanair Chase and, of course, Friday's Gold Cup. Lots of smaller supporting fish that might also taste sweet, starting with...
1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)
A bigger field than last year's though, with just four then, that's not difficult!
We have a worthy favourite in Mighty Potter, who brings a four-race unbeaten streak and a career tally of seven wins from nine starts to the table. He's a Grade 1 winner on both his most recent spins, each over this sort of trip, and on form he is clear of his field. If you want a counterargument, it's this: in last year's Supreme he arrived similarly solid-looking off the back of a Grade 1 novice hurdle gold; but he was just not engaged on the day, pulling up a long way out. This will be only his second cross-water away day and, while a body of evidence of one race is hardly bombproof, it is a niggle.
If MP should falter, who may benefit? Most obvious would be Banbridge, winner of the Martin Pipe a year ago and second to El Fabiolo over an inadequate trip most recently. He was beaten ten lengths there, and 18 lengths the time before by Mighty Potter, so one might reasonably argue that the jolly will have to notably under-perform in order for that form to get spun around. It is also the case that Banbridge seems to prefer better ground, his two wins on soft coming in run of the mill novice hurdles where he probably outclassed his rivals.
A veteran at nine, in the context of a novice chase, is Appreciate It, winner of the 2021 Ballymore, second in the 2020 Champion Bumper, and only 10/3 in last year's Champion Hurdle, where he ran well for a long time before lack of race fitness told. There are no such fitness concerns this time after three seasonal outings, two of them wins, but he was comprehensively outpointed by Blue Lord last time and now steps up half a mile in trip. As a son of Jeremy it's not a foregone conclusion he'll stay, especially on rain softened ground; but he travels like he probably will (he did win a bumper over this trip very early in his career, and was a point to point winner before that, for whatever that form is worth now).
The first UK runner in the lists is Balco Coastal, a close up second to Gerri Colombe in the G1 Scilly Isles last time. He'd previously won a decent novices' handicap chase on soft ground lending credence to his claim to underfoot apathy, but his overall level seems a little below the Irish trio.
Stage Star has been a super horse for his myriad enthusiastic owners, and comes here having won seven of his 12 starts, including the G1 Challow Hurdle in 2021. He then pulled up in Grade 1's at both Cheltenham and Aintree, but has got back in the groove this term over a fence. To wit, he's notched three times from four starts - second on the other occasion, in Grade 2 company - and loves it soft. Conditions will be ideal but I'm not convinced he's up to this exacting level.
James du Berlais a hard horse to peg. He was second in Grade 1's at Auteuil and Punchestown over hurdles, and bolted up from the front in a beginners' chase on soft ground. But, in Mighty Potter's G1 last time, he was stuffed. It's possible he'll appreciate the softer ground but he'll certainly need to to reverse those positions.
Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map
This has pace, mainly from Stage Star, Appreciate It and Christopher Wood, but also Banbridge can go forward; so it'll be a true test. Mighty Potter is expected to be handy without getting involved in the battle for the lead.
Turners Novices' Chase Selection
There is every chance Mighty Potter just wins but he's an unexciting price after flopping so badly twelve months back. As such, it might be worth chancing the old man of the party, Appreciate It, in what could be a fair slog if it doesn't stop raining. I feel Banbridge might want better ground, and the rest of the Irish - and all of the British - don't look good enough.
Suggestion: Back Appreciate It at 4/1.
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2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)
Another absolute melee. Coming into last season, the Irish had won the previous six renewals, and held most of the aces for a seventh. But it didn't play out that way. In fact, not only was Hughie Morrison's Third Wind first past the post, but home team runners filled out the podium and five of the first six places. Hmm...
Some of that will be down to happenstance and some at the hand of the BHA's handicapping team, who have recalibrated the relationship between UK and Irish ratings. Whatever, it's an interesting additional consideration to lob into the pot.
My shortlist is Thanksforthehelp, The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Walking On Air. This quintet is trained and owned by 'the right people', has the right unexposed profile, and looks sure to handle conditions.
The Bosses Oscar was second in this off a nine pound higher mark two years ago. He pulled up in it last year but that was after a season chasing where he mainly pulled up. Back to hurdling this term he's been on the premises throughout, and a fast run big field is no problem to him. He's trained by Gordon Elliott, triple Pertemps winner between 2018 and 2020.
He also saddles Level Neverending for the same owners, Bective Stud. This one is far less exposed, having made his handicap debut in the Warwick qualifier, staying on into a qualifying position and never nearer. He's a big price dark horse for all that he might not be good enough against this level of opposition.
Walking On Air runs for Nicky Henderson and Mrs Michael Tabor - Doreen, in fact. He's another lightly raced sort who opened his handicap account in the Exeter qualifier. All form so far has been on a sound surface, which is a concern unless the track dries out pronto.
David Pipe is a Pertemps winner - twice in fact, with the same wonderful stick, Buena Vista. His old man won the race further back and 'Dave' has a good chance with Thanksforthehelp, facile winner of the Chepstow qualifier last time. The notion that last day winners 'have shown their hand' doesn't really fit with the fact that last day winners have taken ten Pertemps Finals since 1997, from 108 qualifiers, for a +11 SP profit. They've also hit the frame at a 26% clip. The flip side is that the last to achieve a winning double was Presenting Percy in 2017.
Lots of others to consider, naturally.
Pertemps Final Pace Map
Potentially furiously run, it will certainly be strongly run. That might suit the strong travellers further back, who can hold a position through the early heat and play their hand late.
Pertemps Final Selection
This is another race where extra places give us extra chances. In that spirit, I want The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverendingand Thanksforthehelpon my ticket - and I don't mind splitting (unevenly) between three picks at all. If you only want to back one, take your choice from that trio or any of the other horses in the field!
Suggestion: Make sure you get all the extra places you can, and consider one or more of the three above.
*
2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)
The much maligned Ryanair is one of my favourite races of the week. I get the argument that it dilutes the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but the corollary is that it produces a high class heat all of its own for those not fast enough for the former and without sufficient stamina for the latter: it is truly an intermediate Championship race.
Take Allaho in the past two years, for example; he's blitzed his rivals from the front and, in so doing, has recorded a pair of the best performances at those respective Festivals. Prior to that, Frodon and Bryony provided one of the stories of the week in 2019, and the likes of Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Cue Card, Imperial Commander, and Albertas Run give the roll of honour a robust look. So, no, not for me that the Ryanair is a misstep: it's a cracking race and, generally, a very good betting race.
Perhaps not this season, however, on the latter point at least. Because, in the absence of Allaho, we have Shishkin. The winner of a Supreme and an Arkle pulled up in last year's Champion Chase and flunked behind Edwardstone in this season's Tingle Creek: missing, presumed gone at it. Until, that is, a wind op and a step up in trip conspired to elicit a performance as good as he's ever produced in the Ascot Chase over this trip.
That level of form, and plenty of other from prior to last season's Fez flop, puts him a mile - or maybe half a stone in ratings terms - clear of his field here. But before going all in, consider that he was similarly well-fancied off a similarly rated prep a year ago. That big effort left its mark, albeit that the manner of the result was visually a lot more punishing, Shishkin going toe to toe with Energumene in a heavyweight scrap for our time.
So who, if anyone, can lower Shishkin's black and yellow checkerboard colours? With the news that Allaho would miss the party, Willie was never going to be troubled in shuffling his pack to find a sub. He's come up with Blue Lord, who looked world-beating at Christmas before failing to live with barn mate Gentleman De Mee at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Prior to that, Blue Lord had done well to hold off former King George winner Tornado Flyer on his seasonal bow over the Ryanair trip. He's high class, but I'm just not sure what his trip is - two and a quarter miles, perhaps?
Janidil got closest to Allaho last year, having been held up away from the tearaways on the front. That turned out to be a good tactic as, although he got nowhere near 'the speed of the speed' Allaho, he plugged on past; but it's reasonable to argue he may not even have been second had Conflated not fallen two out. Janidil had two subsequent spring spins, both non-completions, and has had just one go this season. That was in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, where he held off Haut En Couleurs in a small but fairly select field.
This distance may be the making of Fury Road, who has struggled to see out three miles at the top table on a number of occasions. He won a Grade 2 over 2m4f in early November last year before taking bronze in a brace of Leopardstown three mile G1's; further back, he was just outstayed by Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett.
What to make of Envoi Allen? Winner of the 2019 Champion Bumper and the 2020 Ballymore, he's actually won a couple of Grade 1's since including as recently as this season. He's six from eight at around this distance, hurdles and fences, and, if you can overlook a very poor showing in the King George, he's a place player.
I don't give the rest much of a chance.
Ryanair Chase Pace Map
Steady away here, most likely; Chacun Poir Soi, fabulous old boy, may be near the front but won't be tearing off. Should be a good even tempo.
Ryanair Chase Selection
This is Shishkin's race to lose. He looked very, very good in the Ascot Chase last time and a run with seven pounds of that is probably good enough. I don't really like the 'without' market so that's it - Shishkin.
Suggestion: Back 8/11 Shishkin to generate some eights for any spare elevens you have* - or just watch a champ in action.
*this does not constitute robust financial advice. Caveat emptor.
*
3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)
The second highlight of day three is the Stayers' Hurdle, run over three miles. Bizarrely, it is not always the test of stamina the name suggests: in the last two seasons, Danny Mullins has ridden his rivals into a trance aboard Flooring Porter with, last season, his stop-start tempo on the front end before gearing up in the run to two out. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me thrice?
Although FP's form figures look a little less appealing this season, he's been running to a similar level of form and he seems to handle most ground. Trainer Gavin Cromwell will have again peaked him for this gig, but very few horses manage to win three Stayers' Hurdles (or indeed three of any Festival Championship race). That said, there isn't a bundle of obvious pace alternates in the field.
We haven't seen a lot of the seven-year-old Charles Byrnes-trained Blazing Khal, but what we have seen has typically been other horses following him home. Indeed, he's had just four races since 2020, three of them the following year and all of them victories. That two were achieved around Cheltenham is a boon to his prospects, as is his proven speed for shorter trips as well as three-mile winning form. This will be a first step up to Grade 1 company but, after three successive G2 scores, he's ready. Byrnes tends to know what he has and so the layoff - sole spin since 2021 was last month - isn't unduly concerning, though there is scope for the dreaded 'bounce' with that profile. There is a small niggle about his rider, the trainer's son, who will be unable to claim his allowance here.
Ex-French-trained Teahupoo was in the care of Gabriel Leenders prior to his rehoming at Gordon Elliott's Cullentra House yard, and his former conditioner has Gold Tweet in this year's line up. Let's deal with Teahupoo first. He's a typically early blooming French-bred who has won seven of his nine Irish starts, including this season's Hatton's Grace Hurdle, Grade 1. He was soundly beaten last term in both the Champion Hurdle and the Punchestown equivalent, but has resumed winning ways over further either side of the new year. Most of his good form is on soft or heavy ground so he won't mind any rain, and if it turns into a slog that ought to suit him.
Gold Tweet is another for whom wet ground holds no terrors: it was soft when he won the Cleeve, and very soft when he scored at Fontainebleu in November. But defeating Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park, both fantastic sticks but surely on the decline now, probably leaves him with plenty to find in this deeper field. Gold Tweet has never won above G3 in France (and that in a chase race).
Another I'm struggling to quantify is Home By The Lee. Joseph O'Brien trains this eight-year-old whose timber-topping form prior to this season was 218U113P100P226R; he's managed to put back-to-back wins together, in a Grade 2 and then a three mile Grade 1, so what gives? A charitable perspective of his Stayers' run last year would show that he stayed on having been outpaced mid-race; his case hangs on it being a thorough stamina test, which is by no means a given. In any event, he's short enough in a race of if's and but's.
Willie sends Klassical Dream and he might just be the over-priced one. Sure, he's quirky, and he probably needs to be delivered on the line because he travels a lot better than he finds when let down; but he's a six-time (SIX!) Grade 1 winner including three of his last four Grade 1's - so no back number - and comes here off the back of a narrow defeat by Teahupoo over an inadequate two and a half mile trip.
Of the rest, Ashdale Bob might be involved in making the pace - he's led or been prominent in his last three, and clung tough for 3rd of 23 in last year's Coral Cup - and is admirably consistent. His form in the last three seasons reads 11F912U373232342: almost always thereabouts when completing. I really hope he puts it up to Flooring Porter (though, of course, there will be others who wish the opposite!).
It's tough to make much of case for the stars of yesteryear like Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher.
Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map
Surely Flooring Porter doesn't get an easy lead for a third year running? Surely?! Maybe he does, though both Ashdale Bob and Dashel Drasher can go from the front, too. The French runner, Henri Le Farceur, led last time but is more typically waited with.
Stayers' Hurdle Selection
Very difficult indeed. I'm taking a chance on Klassical Dream, win only, in the hope that they go fast and he can cruise into contention. He's as likely to flop as to win so not an each way play, but hoping he'll give a run for the money.
Suggestion: Back Klassical Dream win only at 10/1.
*
4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)
Another borderline impossible handicap, this time a chase, and the first of two such races on the day. This is the least trends'y race of the week, with the Irish faring well enough, so too the Brits; young horses and old, exposed and unexposed, all getting on the roll of honour. It's a race that Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have never won, Gordon Elliott has only won once and Nicky Henderson hasn't won since 2006! It's also a race where four of the last five winners were priced 5/1 or shorter, which is disappointing unless you fancy So Scottish.
That horse, in the care of Emmet Mullins, Plate winning trainer two years ago, looks an obvious contender for all that he's likely to face deeper ground and has been off longer than most winners; though Ballynagour in 2014 returned after the exact same 117 day layoff to win.
Il Ridoto was a soft ground winner over course and distance last time and, up eight pounds, still looks viable for Nicholls. He might again bid to make all. And a really interesting one if he stays is Frero Banbou. Trained by Venetia Williams, three-time Plate winner, this lad was desperately outpaced in last year's Grand Annual over two miles before making up ground on a fading field into eventual third. He's in the right hands and should be able to lie up with them more easily over this longer range. Venetia also runs Gemirande, a trip specialist who has progressed by more than a stone this season and, not out of the first two in his last six starts, may still be improving.
Millions of others with chances.
Festival Plate Pace Map
There's not a massive amount of early go, though Gemirande and Coole Cody will be there. So, too, perhaps Shakem Up'Arry and Embittered. Should be a fair chance for most.
Festival Plate Selection
The simple answer is So Scottish, and he might be a win saver. But, with as many bonus places as I can get, I'll be splitting my stake between the Brits Il Ridoto, Frero Banbou and Gemirande, and hoping for the best.
Suggestion: Take a couple of your choosing, and save on So Scottish.
*
4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)
We all have a least favourite Festival race, and this one is mine. I'm generally accepting of the new races but definitely struggle with the mares' novices' hurdle. Anyway, that's my problem, and it will have a winner to find, so let's get on to that.
With seven renewals so far, Willie won the first five - sigh/wow! - before Henry de B took over with a 1-2 in 2021, where there was an Irish 1-2-3-4, none of them Willie. Then, last year, up rocked Love Envoi, trained by a Brit, Harry Fry, with another Brit in second, Willie third.
And it's a UK mare, Luccia, who is short at the top of the betting lists this time around. She's been an easy winner of all four starts to date, two bumpers and two novices, but hasn't jumped on softer than good ground yet. She could well be the winner; the problem is that this is one of those races where there are a number of unexposed types whose form lines are untested against each other.
Henry de Bromhead has options in a race named after his late son - poor family 🙁 - and it will be unbearably poignant if one of his can win. Chief among them might be Magical Zoe, herself unbeaten in three. She's won on soft in Grade 3 company and, while not as visually impressive as Luccia, she's expected to appreciate any stiffer test of stamina as a result of a fast pace. She was 18/1 that last day and beat the first two in the market into second and third: it didn't look fluky.
A really interesting contender, not to be confused with the de Bromhead runner, is Princess Zoe. You might know her from such as her Group 1 Prix du Cadran score or multiple Galway triumphs. She scraped home in a dead heat on hurdling debut over 2m4f, and it might be that a truly run two miles or so with a bit of cut is optimal. Her jumping lacked a little polish on that timber-topping bow, as it was entitled to do, and, if well schooled since, she's unquestionably high class.
Four of Willie's five Dawn Run winners were five-year-olds, which might just be coincidence; but more Dawn Runners tend to be six or older. Mullins' 5yo entry is Lot Of Joy, who has a Lot To Do on the ratings; but she looks a typical improver, having run up in her first two spins in huge fields before putting a dozen lengths between herself and the nearest of 14 rivals last time. She was 1/7 that day so did nothing unexpected, but that brings her to Cheltenham on an improvement arc and less exposed than many others.
You Wear It Well was second to Hermes Allen in the Grade 1 Challow, a race working out very well. I don't know how Hermes has done at time of writing, but a big performance from him in the Ballymore would clearly be a hint towards this mare's chance. She's fine on all ground and easily won a Grade 2 last time. Both the Challow and that G2 were over further, however, so the drop back in trip is not certain to suit.
Two more to mention, from a cast of 21, are Poetic Music and Halka Du Tabert. Poetic Music was a very good bumper filly, running sixth in Facile Vega's Champion Bumper as a four-year-old. She's taken well to hurdling, winning twice, though was no match for Luccia when they met three back. She wants a battle and she wants a strong pace, and she'll get both of those here: outside squeak.
Halka Du Tabert was well touted and showed the rumours to be on point when slamming Eabha Grace, a Grade 3 winner at the weekend, in a big field maiden. She was outpaced in a small field G3 last time, and this is much more her setup: she could be a contender.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map
Hard to know how this will go with so many inexperienced mares. On what we've seen, Fox Girl and Halka du Tabert will be forwardly placed from the outset, while Luccia is more likely to track those trailblazers.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection
Lots who will turn out better than they've had a chance to show so far, and Luccia - whilst an obvious win chance - is a measly price. Against her, I'll chance a couple each way: Magical Zoe and Halka Du Tabert. Both are likely to relish a strong pace and possess the battling qualities required for a scrum amongst 20+ inexperienced mares.
Suggestion: Back either or both of Magical Zoe and Halka du Tabert, each way a pleasure.
*
5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)
The second handicap chase of the day, this one over three and a quarter miles and the exclusive domain of amateur riders. However, a quick squint at the winning jocks in recent years demonstrates the level of professionalism in the amateur ranks: just two of the last nine were claiming, and both have now gone professional. Jamie Codd has won the Kim Muir four times since 2009.
In betting terms, there were two 40/1 winners in the past eight years, both British-trained, and the other six were all single figure returns, four of them trained in Ireland.
Favourite this year is Stumptown, on the hat-trick and trained by Gavin Cromwell. He popped up at Sandown last time, eking out seven lengths over the second that day and earning enough of a ratings bump to book his Kim Muir ticket. Although he won a maiden hurdle on soft, his recent best has been achieved on a sounder surface; that doesn't mean he won't handle wetter as well as drier, just that he might not - and he's awful short if you're not sure.
Mr Incredible bids, I think, to be Willie Mullins' first handicap chase winner at the Festival. I believe he's 0 from 37 though he's had some placed. That's clearly not fuelling optimism and the horse - claimed by his rider to be a nutjob - has form figures that lurch from a Scrabble rack to a clutch of podium positions. Which Mr Incredible will show up today?
A horse we were interested in buying a couple of years back is Farinet, and he's been a fine servant for connections. He's trained by the first lady of Cheltenham Festival handicap chases, Venetia Williams, and wasn't beaten too far over course and distance on New Year's Day.
Beauport arrives here rather than the Ultima, and that may be the proverbial tip in itself. Trainer by the Twister, Nigel Twiston-Davies, he loves soft ground and a trip.
At the other end of the handicap, Ben Pauling - winning trainer of the Grand Annual last year - saddles a couple, the more interesting of which is probably Anightinlambourn. He's won three of his last four and was second on the other occasion; two of those runs were here over this sort of trip, but on quicker ground. If it dries out he becomes very interesting, I think.
And I've almost certainly not mentioned the winner!
Kim Muir Pace Map
It's Venetia to the fore and aft, everyone else in between. Farinet likely goes to the front while Chambard will be played late. Lots of other occasional pace pressers means this will be a stern examination of jumping over an exacting distance.
Kim Muir Selection
Tricky. Very tricky. I'm going to try Beauport and Anightinlambourn (good to soft or quicker only) against the field.
Suggestion: Back a couple against the field, with lots of extra places. Maybe the same two as me, and maybe not!
*
It's a very tough day is Thursday at the Festival, so well done if you come out in front. If you don't, there's always Gold Cup day...
Good luck!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Shishkin_Ascot_2023.jpg319830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2023-03-14 17:57:012023-03-14 17:57:02Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips
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