Pinball Wizard, Part 3: The Theory of Winning In-Running

Previously On… Pinball Wizard Betting… We looked at the psychological difference between betting and trading, including a typical journey into in-running betting and whether a one-click screen or a ladder is best for in-running. You can read that here, and Part 1 is here.

In this article we get to the ‘good stuff’ with the theory of winning in the in-running markets, writes Russell Clarke.

Just like the pre-race markets, to produce a long-term profit, you require an ‘edge’. An edge is a factor, a combination of factors or a strategy that is unknown to the market or underestimated by the market. In layman’s terms, betting 6/4 on the flip of a coin.

The skillset to bet with an edge in-running can be different to that which is required in the pre-race market. It can also incorporate elements of pre-race analysis. Edges that I have seen utilised by successful in-running traders can be very diverse and I have highlighted many of them in this article.

Gamer skills can be useful. Do you have the hand-eye coordination that makes you the fastest finger on the ladders? Could you bet on a race without actually watching the race in question? Are you capable of being ‘Pinball Wizard’ Tommy and playing the market ‘blind’? Filling gaps between back and lay offers and reading the market liquidity and direction to trade a profit over a lengthy number of races? It sounds a stretch, but I know of at least one successful trader who achieves this. I know another who relies heavily on this ability, without it being his sole modus operandi. Using the ladders means you are totally in control of the prices you take or offer, both on entry and exit. You close the margins against you. I could not personally trade successfully this way, but it is interesting to know that it is possible.

Perhaps you are an experienced and expert race-reader? In-running betting is the place to test those skills! Many of us have watched thousands of races and, like football pundits, are very confident in our own opinions and expertise. Testing oneself is relatively easy because replays of races are available free of charge and effectively unlimited. Watch replays and see if you can predict the winner at the 3-furlong marker, 2f out and 1f out. Test your ability to spot losers after 1f, 2f or three furlongs. You may be surprised! Knowing how much the picture can change could be an in-running superpower!

You will certainly find yourself learning when watching lots of races through this lens. The lessons learned then have to be tested against the market. Thousands of pairs of eyes are watching the same race as you, so you need to either spot things earlier than the majority, or see things that the majority don’t see. You can only really test your theories or race-reading abilities on live races and that will be your acid test. Do it to small stakes!

Some like to believe they can read a horse’s behaviour in the paddock, on the way to post or at the post. Certainly, this can be of real interest among lightly raced horses where there is limited racecourse form or experience. Today, we are better served than ever. Racing TV, Sky Racing and ITV racing all cover the paddock and pre-race to varying degrees. They also offer interviews with those closest to the horses. It is often possible to spot something before the market and trade that information before the race even goes in-running.

To my knowledge, there hasn’t been much quantitative analysis of a horse’s pre-race behaviour. What effect does a horse sweating pre-race actually have? What about misbehaviour in the paddock or reluctance to enter the stalls? Such analysis was attempted by Geoffrey Hutson in his book Watching Racehorses, but the sample sizes were limited and the nuances are almost too difficult to evaluate. For example, if a horse always sweats or misbehaves it is probably of little consequence, but, if it is a new trait, then greater significance could be placed upon it. I have found this area more lucrative than I thought. It doesn’t throw up opportunities that often, but they are worth waiting for.

Can you use your pre-race analysis skills to produce in-running opportunities and profit? Are you a keen student of the draw? Or pace? Or draw and pace combination? As a Geegeez subscriber, I’m pretty sure you already utilise these resources as the site has some unique tools to analyse this area.

For example, if you know over today’s course/distance/ground/field size that horses that are held up from a low draw have a PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) of 0.35, that is valuable information. Pre-race it still suffers from the unknown of the pace element of the equation. In-running, that unknown becomes known and therefore even more powerful! Not only can you be 100% certain who has been held up, you can also quickly know if the overall pace means that run style is a disadvantage or not.

That 0.35 pre-race figure covers all races under consideration, both fast run and slowly run. If we now know that this race is slowly run, that 0.35 is probably lower still because being held up in a slowly run race inhibits winning chances further. Other pre-race analysis may reveal reasons you feel certain horses may underperform or overperform. These reasons may then be confirmed in-running and thus increase confidence in your entry point. Idiosyncrasies among horses may also reveal themselves. For example, a horse may underperform when pulling or when held up or when missing the break etc. These can then be confirmed (or not) in-running. All of the above can be found quickly via Geegeez.

Are you aware enough to spot track biases as they present themselves? Are front-runners favoured or might there be a ‘golden highway’ by a rail? Days when ground changes occur due to drying weather or excessive rain often lend themselves to this type of knowledge. On days when there has been a lot of rain, or perhaps it is raining during racing, can be particularly interesting. I have often noted at jumps courses that certain parts of the track become heavily favoured and horses that run on the unfavoured part have virtually no chance of winning. The in-running market seems slow to react to this knowledge.

How good is your pace analysis? The pace at which a race is being run conveys advantages and disadvantages to horses in certain positions. I utilise the fantastic service run by TPD (Total Performance Data) to give me important insights into this factor. In the next article, I will go into greater depth about their service and how I use it, but they produce excellent Par Charts that each runner’s progress is compared against. These instantly show how quickly or slowly a particular race is being run. Clearly this is a huge uplift on ‘judging’ by eye.

Jockey styles are varied both in their habits (where they like to position themselves in races – see David Renham’s great articles on this) and their visual appearance. Both factors can shed light on what you are seeing in-running. Knowing your jockey styles can give you a head start on the market. Some jockeys are quiet on a horse and any movement can be a sign of weakness, others are more energetic and could mislead you into believing the horse is under pressure. Often, being able to spot these differences gets you ahead of the market and thus able to secure a better entry/exit price.

All of the above can constitute edges; and all of the above are used by successful in-running traders that I know. Some use only one, some a combination, but I think whatever they use it reflects upon their own personal strengths. In-running betting opens up potential edges that are not available pre-race, but the margins can be harder to overcome and the liquidity is lower. These have to be accounted for by much stronger edges than those used by successful punters pre-race.

Next up… I outline my personal approach in ‘The Practice Of Winning’. You can read that here >

- RC

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• In-running trading diary, part 2
• Pinball Wizard, Part 5: In-Running Aids and Hacks
• Pinball Wizard, Part 4: The Practice of Winning
• Pinball Wizard, Part 2: The Psychology of In-Running Betting
• Pinball Wizard: An Introduction to In-Running Betting Part 1