Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 2.20 Worcester
- 2.30 Doncaster
- 3.15 Sandown
- 6.52 Leopardstown
- 8.30 Yarmouth
- 8.45 Newbury
The Sandown race is a Listed contest and is clearly the 'best' on the list, but 2yo fillies really aren't my thing, so let's check out the UK's most valuable race of the day, the final contest in the evening's Racing League fixture and the penultimate of our free races, the 8.30 Yarmouth, which is a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...
This looks a tricky/competitive contest and I'm sure you'll be able to make a case for quite a few of these. The upside of this is that there shouldn't be any short prices and we might find a nice E/W bet for ourselves, especially with the bookies paying four places...
Andaleep won last time out, Elzaam Blue comes here on a hat-trick and Eagles Way has won his last four! Like A Tiger has won two of his last three, as has Cumulonimbus who has four wins and two places from his last seven outings.
These five are the 'form horses' here, but Certain Lad, Dark Pine, Baryshnikov, Ace Rothstein and Aqwaam all come here on fairly lengthy losing streaks, having lost their last 8, 12, 11, 11 and 7 races respectively. In fact, their recent form in comparison with the other five I named is so bad that I'm just going to omit them from my considerations immediately, leaving my card looking like this...
This makes the field much more manageable with just eight runners to consider, as I look at class movements. Five of the eight are stepping up in class here with Eagle's Way and Regal Empire up one class, Andaleep and Bringbackmemories are both up two levels and it's a triple step up for hat-trick seeking Elzaam Blue, which might make life tough.
Cumulonimbus and Old Port both raced at Class 2 last time out with the former having won and placed in his last two Class 2 starts, whilst Like A Tiger actually drops down from Listed class to run in just his second handicap contest, having won on handicap debut two starts ago. That win was over today's trip and of my eight under consideration, only Old Port, Regal Empire and Elzaam Blue have yet to score at this distance. Only Cumulonimbus has won here at Yarmouth, making all to score over course and distance on good to soft ground back in September 2022 at the start of his seven-race run of form I mentioned earlier.
Eagle's Way now carries top weight of those I'm still considering and his chances of a fifth win on the bounce might be affected by the fact that he hasn't raced for just over ten months, although he did win at Brighton on his seasonal reappearance at last July after an eight month absence, so he might well be one of those who goes well fresh. His rivals, however, have all raced in the last four weeks apart from Like A Tiger who has had twelve weeks' rest. Based on the above and on recent form, Old Port looks the weakest of the octet, so I'm bidding him goodbye before we even look at feature of the day, Instant Expert...
Eagle's Way is 2 from 2 on good ground and 2 from 2 on good to firm, but hasn't raced on good to soft and was only 8th of 15 when beaten by 9 lengths over 7f on soft ground when making his debut in October 2021. He makes a Class 2 debut after 2 wins at Class 3 and 2 at Class 5, but will certainly get the trip. Cumulonimbus has a line of green albeit off a small number of relevant races, but Andaleep is proven at this trip. Bringbackmemories looks the weakest on those win stats, particularly with 7 defeats from 8 at this trip. Perhaps, his place stats will make him look better...
And, in fairness, they do. Those numbers suggest he could still be in contention to make the frame, but I've already decided that I won't be backing him to win this one. He's drawn widest of the seven and is second widest of the entire field and although we don't have a stack of data (which is why I've tweaked the parameters a touch) about similar past contests, I'd say out wide is not the place to be here...
...from either a win or a place perspective and the PRB3 figures suggest those drawn 3 to 10 would have the best chances here...
...which keeps the other six runners in with a shout. Those 30+ races I used for the draw stats have, like many a Yarmouth race, tended to be won by those setting or closely tracking the pace...
...which, on the evidence of the runners' last four outings, would appear to suit Cumulonimbus, Eagle's Way and Elzaam Blue more than the others...
...and the pace/draw heat map looks like this...
Summary
I've used a process of elimination up to the draw stats, which I think eliminate Bringbackmemories from my enquiries, a decision backed up by his pace stats and the subsequent heat map. The heat map also suggests that Like A Tiger might struggle here, but if Elzaam Blue races like he did two, three and four starts ago, he could still be in with a shout.
Of those above, i think Regal Empire is the weakest and he was beaten in a lower grade last time out, so i wouldn't be backing him here. I also won't back Bringbackmemories or Like A Tiger to win this, although the latter clearly has ability and was the 9/2 favourite at 4.45pm on Wednesday. I suspect he'll be there or thereabouts despite my misgivings, but he's too short for to consider a win or an E/W bet.
This leaves me with Andaleep, Eagle's Way, Cumulonimbus and Elzaam Blue and with the bookies paying four places, they'd be the four I'd want to consider from at least an E/W perspective. Cumulonimbus has ticked most boxes all the way through the process and for me, he's the one to beat and can be backed at 13/2, which is quite reasonable.
Of the other three E/W possibles, Eagle's Way and Andaleep are both priced at or above my nominal 8/1 preferred price, so a pair of small E/W bets might be the answer there, but Elzaam Blue would be too short for those purposes at 6/1.
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- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
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