Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Friday 14/07/23

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

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...have yielded just two qualifiers for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 York
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.35 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Chepstow

...and whilst the field is a little larger than I'm normally comfortable with, it makes sense to tie the daily feature in with the free races, so we're going to have a look at Final Watch and the 4.45 Newmarket, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

FORM : Amber Island won last time out, as did Under The Twilight, whilst Final Watch, Razeyna and Waiting All Night all had top 3 finishes. Street Kid, Maxi Boy, Persuasion and Waiting All Night have failed to win any of their last 8, 12, 17 and 11 races respectively.

CLASS : Tiger Crusade and Street Kid both drop down a class, but Amber Island, Maxi Boy, Love de Vega (on yard debut here) and Waiting All Night are all up a level, whilst Under The Twilight is up two classes after his LTO win.

COURSE/DISTANCE RECORD : All bar Maxi Boy and Waiting All Night have won over 7f and we've two course winners in the shape of Final Watch and Love de Vega who have both scored over course and distance.

LAST RAN : Love de Vega might well be in need of a run after nearly nine months off the track, whilst all his rivals have been out in the last two months. Waiting All Night ran as recently as last Friday!

Our two LTO winners are the only females in the races and we've a pair of 3 yr olds, Harry Magnus & Waiting All Night, at the foot of the weights thanks partly to their 8lbs weight for age allowance.

Instant Expert identifies nine past good to firm winners and seven who scored at least once at Class 3 on turf. The graphic below also suggests that this trip hasn't been an enjoyable one for the likes of Lyndon B (1 from 12) and Persuasion (2 from 18) and although Final Watch is on the horses for courses list, he has struggled at Class 3, winning just once in seven starts...

Tiger Crusade is now 11lbs higher than his last Flat win, but he did score at Lingfield on the A/W at 4lbs higher than today, just three starts ago, but Under The twilight really is 12lbs higher than when she won almost four weeks ago! Persuasion is the one dropping down the weights, but has run well in defeat off marks of 86-89 in recent outings.

As you're probably aware, I'm not always sure about the effects of the draw over a straight race and on the face of past similar contests...

...you'd say that the lower you were drawn the better, but the PRB3 stats say that the centre of the stalls is where you want to be...

...whilst I can't help but feel that the LOW / MID /HIGH stats are a bit skewed by an unusually large number of winners from stall 1...

...so I'll park the draw for now and file it as unresolved today, but what I am pretty sure about is that you don't want to be backing hold-up horses here in a competitive big-field contest on quick ground...

...and if you can identify a front-runner, you could be quids in, Thankfully, we can quickly make an assumption as to how the race might progress by looking at the field's last few runs and they look like this...

...which is great news for me, because I liked Mister Bluebird before I started writing the piece! Harry Magnus has that supposedly plum draw in stall 1, but won't get to take advantage of it and he'll have a wall of runners ahead of him. The other 'pace' runner in the field is Love de Vega, but he somewhat lost his way last season and hasn't been seen since last year. And more on pace, this is how they might break out in draw order...

Summary

Mister Bluebird is likely to lead and I much prefer him as my front-runner than the rusty Love de Vega. Mister Bluebird isn't drawn far from the centre, which PRB3 says is the spot to be in and he has gone well in all four starts this season. He might not be an obvious pick as a winner, but with most bookies paying four places (Sky go 5, as ever!), I'd be happy with a 9/1 E/W punt here.

Prior to doing the analysis, I liked Lyndon B and H4C horse Final Watch as possible E/W candidates too, but I fear the pace will kill their chances here, so I'm going to put them in the "every chance but not carrying my money" category. Street Kid, however, might outrun his 18/1 price ticket and make the frame if not ridden too aggressively this time, he's down in class and trip and has a better jockey on board than last time, so he could be involved. Just small stakes, though!

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