Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

• 2.25 Doncaster
• 3.25 Downpatrick
• 4.25 Sandown
• 4.30 Chester
• 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!