Racing Insights, Friday 16/06/23
Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have sadly yielded just one 'possible'...
...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
- 1.50 York
- 6.10 Fontwell
- 6.15 Fairyhouse
- 6.35 Cork
- 7.45 Cork
- 7.50 Goodwood
...and we'll head to the Knavesmire for the first from the 'free' list, the 1.50 York, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good to firm ground, that will be a little slower in places and here's how they'll line up...
Steady improver Westernesse was a winner last time out, as were Menelaus and Showmedemoney, but Jean Baptiste, Aqwaam, Highwaygrey and Poet's Dawn are winless in 10, 6, 7 & 5 races respectively.
Plenty of class movers here, as only Pledge of Honour & raced at Class 4 LTO. Highwaygrey drops down two classes here, whilst Jean Baptiste, Solanna & Poet's Dream are all down 1. Our trio of LTO winners, Westernesse, Menelaus & Showmedemoney are all up a level, as is bottom weight Dougies Dream despite three poor efforts at Class 5 in the last couple of months.
Menelaus wears a visor for the first time today and we should have no rustiness issues here, with all ten having raced in the last five weeks, with Menelaus seen most recently when winning at Thirsk 11 days ago, getting off the mark at the tenth time of asking.
That win was over a mile, so he's one of just four (inc Westernesse, Aqwaam & Dougies Dream) yet to win over a similar trip to this one, whilst Poet's Dawn is the only previous York winner, albeit over 1m1f three years ago!
That win is shown below on a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic that contains many warning bells...
...and those warnings are..
- GOING - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
- CLASS - Pledge of Honour & Aqwaam (note that Jean Baptiste has won a Class 2 and that Pledge of Honour, Highwaygrey & Poet's Dream have won at Class 3)
- COURSE - Despite his win here, Poet's Dawn is just 1 from 14 at this venue and that's not good enough
- DISTANCE - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
- WEIGHT - Solanna is 10lbs higher than his win two starts ago and 15lbs higher than his win three starts ago, but he is down in class and by 2lbs from LTO.
Based on everything to this point, I going to omit Jean Baptiste, Poet's Dawn and Dougies Dream before I even look at the field's place stats...
...where Aqwaam looks weak at Class 4 and Highwaygrey looks a steady performer, but there's nothing here that says back or dismiss to any of them yet.
Our Draw Analyser says that past similar races ie
...don't actually show a massive draw bias and they really shouldn't over 10.5 furlongs if truth be told, but stalls 3 & 7 have fared (abnormally?) well...
...so that might offer a little encouragement to the likes of Solanna and Aqwaam, whilst running those 80 races above through our Pace Analyser, it would seem that the best approach here would be to get tucked in behind the leader(s) in a prominent position...
Hold-up types fare next best to prominent runners, but leaders have struggled to see the job out to a satisfactory conclusion, which might not bode well for likely front-runner Showmedemoney...
...whilst Highwaygrey and Pledge of Honour would appear to be the ones being waited with.
Summary
The one ticking most boxes for me so far is Westernesse, whose form of 2223231 over the last year has shown steady improvement, culminating in a first win at Pontefract recently. the way he stayed on that day suggests that the extra furlong or so here should be right up his street and although he's the early (only bet365 were open at 4.15) 3/1 favourite, he should be the one to beat here, especially as the second and third from his win have both won at Class 4 since and although he's up 3lbs, his jockey Mark Winn (in decent nick too at 7 from 24 over the last fortnight) takes the same amount off, so it's Westernesse for me today.
As for the placers, you can make a case for most of the six of them and I think Menelaus is probably the 'best of the rest' and handy for forecast purposes, but definitely too short for me to go E/W at 7/2! E/W options for me here would probably end up being runners like Pledge of Honour and/or Highwaygrey at 9's and 12's respectively.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
