Racing Insights, Friday 26/01/24

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

• 1.15 Sandown
• 1.27 Lingfield
• 3.00 Sandown
• 6.45 Wolverhampton

...but I'm going elsewhere for today's race preview and plumping for one of the day's joint highest rated contests, the 3.35 Sandown, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground that will hopefully throw up some interesting E/W options from the following...

Issam, Spring Note and Clondaw Royale all won last time out. Chez Hans was a faller on his last run, having won each of his previous five, but an 878 day absence casts doubts on him here. Mullinaree has won four of his last seven, Lord of Cheshire os three from five and a runner-up LTO, Issam is two from three, as is East India Express, whilst Bashers Reflection is three from five.

So, plenty in decent nick, but top weight Jatiluwih is the only one without a win in seven, having been beaten in eleven on the bounce since a win at Cheltenham way back in November 2019. Last seen on New Year's Day finishing last of ten, he can join Chez Hans on my reject list, as can Robin's Dream who makes just a second handicap start some 382 days after his last run, when only third of four runners. Should he actually run here, it will be only his second outing since the end of May 2021, so he's likely to be rusty.

The two long-standing absentees aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last four to eight weeks. Of the ten still under consideration, three (Gytename, Sholokjack and Bashers Reflection) are down a class, whilst three others (Lord of Cheshire, Clondaw Royale (hcp debut today) & Havaila are up one class with four
(Mullinaree, Issam, Spring Note, & handicap debutant East India Express) having raced at this Class 3 level.

None of this field have won here at Sandown before, but only Sholokjack, Issam, Robin's Dream and Havaila (twice) have run here before, sharing just five appearances. Trip-wise, only Issam, East India Express and Robin's Dream are yet to win over a similar trip and we can assess going/class/course/distance records at a glance via Instant Expert...

...which despite a fair smattering of red, doesn't hold too many horror stories. Lord of Cheshire carries 10lbs more than his last win, but is in good nick. Spring Note is up 13lbs for cantering home 16 lengths clear last time, but won still have won comfortably off today's mark.

Despite the soft ground, I'd expect there to be quite a bit of early pace to this one, if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...with at least half of the field usually keen to get on with things. The danger, of course is that they can't all lead, so some might end up doing too much too soon. Sholokjack is a confirmed hold up despite leading early four starts ago. That's the only non hold-up run in his 10-race career so far and he fell that day too! he's probably he only real hold-up horse in the contest, yet our Pace Analyser suggests that this wouldn't be a bad tactic, as it's front-runners who have tended to struggle here...

Summary

If I'm honest, I don't expect the field to race to the pace chart above, after all they can't all be classed as prominent runners, unless they run in a pack, so I've gone back to Instant Expert and looked at the place stats to eradicate any runner with any red for going/class/course/distance...

...from which I think Spring Note and Issam are my best chances of finding a winner and Lord of Cheshire / Mullinaree the ones I expect to go off at a decent price and have a chance of making the frame with bookies paying four places.

The truth is that all eight have a decent chance of making the frame, but I can't suggest backing all eight, can I?

Spring Note was very impressive last time out and sauntered home well clear of the pack whilst Issam always seems to be there or thereabouts, rarely running a bad race. Lord of Cheshire has finished 11612 in his last five and should find this a little easier than the slog through heavy ground at Haydock he faced when a good second of eight conceding 17lbs to a horse completing a 37-day hat-trick. As for Mullinaree, he's likely to be a big price, but he relishes this trip and is only 2lbs higher than when completing a five-timer at Hexham last June.

Let's check the market...at 5.30pm Thursday, my quartet were best priced as follows, Spring Note 4/1, Issam 7/1, Lord of Cheshire 8/1 and Mullinaree at 28/1! I expected Spring Note to be around 3/1, so I'm very happy with 4's and with bookies paying four places, I think my other three are all worth considering as E/W options.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 27/11/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 26/11/24