Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 2.55 Ffos Las
- 4.00 Navan
- 5.05 Navan
- 5.20 Newbury
- 7.12 Southwell
...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...
...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.
Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.
The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...
Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...
It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.
It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...
...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...
...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...
...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...
...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.
Summary
Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.
Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.
A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...
...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
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