Racing Insights, Monday 06/11/23

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

• 2.20 Hereford
• 3.30 Kempton
• 4.07 Plumpton
• 5.30 Wolverhampton

The Kempton contest is a Listed race, but only four runners are set to go to post, so 'next best' of those races above is the 3.07 Plumpton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground...

Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain all won last time out and the latter comes here on a hat-trick having been in great form last season, winning his last two, three from five and four from seven. Shanty Alley is the only one without a win in the recent formline, having suffered eleven consecutive defeats. He has made the frame in five of those defeats (inc 4 x runner-up), but has also failed to finish five of them (1 x UR and 4 xPU)!

Lots of class movement here, as only I See You Well, Ballinsker, Wake Up Early and Midnight Mary ran at Class 3 last time around. Up The Straight and Dom of Mary both drop down from Class 2, but the other seven runners all step up a class here with Kayf Hernando running for the first time since wind surgery and Sublime Heights wears a first-time tongue tie.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Island Run, Wake Up Early, Blade Runner, Sublime Heights and Up The Straight) have had the benefit of a run in the last 13-31 days, but their seven rivals have been off the track for five to seven months, which might be a disadvantage here.

Up The Straight and Ballinsker have both won 2mf chases here at Plumpton, whilst Wouldubewell, Shanty Alley and Midnight Mary have won over similar trips to today at other tracks. I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner are course and distance winners, but Kayf Hernando, Dom of Mary, Wake Up Early and Island Run have won at neither track nor trip, as demonstrated by Instant Expert below...

...where the highlights include Tip Top Mountain's 2 from 3 on good to soft, his 2 from 3 at Plumpton and his 2 from 2 at the trip. I See You Well (5/9), Blade Runner (3/4) and Sublime Heights (3/5) have good records here, whilst those liking this trip include Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner all with multiple wins and a strike rate og 50% or higher.

The place stats look like this...

...and after removing any horse with any amber or red boxes, I'd suggest these were the ones best suited/more likely to 'get' the conditions...

Past similar 10+ runner races here at Plumpton have favoured horses held up for a run...

...but we don't have that many in this field, according to the Pace tab, which shows us how this field have approached their last four outings...

...but I'd expect the bottom trio to be close to the back of the pack.

Summary

I think that Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Blade Runner and Island Run are going to be best suited by conditions, but I'm going discount Sublime Heights from that list, due to long losing run and the fact that he's unreliable.

Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain are the two bringing the best set of recent results to the table and although I think I like the latter more than the former, he might well need the run after 197 days off, whilst the former raced just 24 days ago. With that in mind, I'd be inclined to suggest Blade Runner as the winner here, but his current odds of 4/1 fav aren't particularly generous/attractive, but I'd be happy with 10/1 E/W from Bet365 about Tip Top Mountain.

I'd also expect the 6/1 pair Kayf Hernando & Island Run to be in the shake-up.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Tuesday 15/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 14/10/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 12/10/24
• Tix Picks, Friday 11/10/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 10/10/24