Racing Insights, Monday 07/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

2.33 Cork
4.53 Cork
5.20 Ayr
5.28 Cork
7.30 Windsor

Of the two UK races above, I suspect the last race on the list will depend more on pace than the other and with tricky underfoot conditions expected, the 7.30 Windsor might well be an interesting contest. It's a 15-runner (more than I'm generally comfortable with!), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over straight 6f on heavy ground...

As there are far more runners than I want to deal with, I'm going to be quite brutal and quickly eliminate runners, based initially on PACE and the INSTANT EXPERT data, as this is how heavy groiund races at Windsor at 5f to 7f have panned out...

.with our field's last four runs looking like this...

Their soft to heavy ground handicap stats look like this...

And whilst I'm aware of the obvious risk of overlooking a possible bet, I'm not even considering those with two or more hold-up runs in their last four outings and I'm removing Cuban Breeze for his soft/heavy ground form, making my new racecard look like this...

Lequinto, Indian Creak and Count Otto all won last time out with the latter coming here on a hat-trick, but Antiphon and Crazy Luck are both on losing runs of 6 and 9 races.

All bar Lethal Nymph and Sterling Knight are stepping up in class with Lequinto, Count Otto and The Cruising Lord up two classes with Lequinto wearing first time blinkers.

All nine have won over today's trip before with all bar Lethal Nymph, Crazy Luck and The Cruising Lord having scored over course and distance. We've no 3 yr olds here, so no age-related weight allowances to consider and all of them have raced in the last six weeks with Sterling Knight having rested for just two days and Crazy Luck for six.

Instant Expert says...

...that Count Otto might well struggle at Class 2 and hasn't fared particularly well here at Windsor and that he and The Cruising Lord look the weakest on the above stats. And as it's my aim to quickly decimate the field into a small number of possible E/W bets, I'm removing both from my calculations now. This still leaves me with seven runners strung across the track in stalls, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14 and over a straight 6f, you'd be forgiven for think that there shouldn't be much advantage to the draw, but it's not quite the case here as those drawn 6 and above do seem to have better results...

...which isn't particularly good news for Lequinto, Lethal Nymph and/or Antiphon, but their fate might not yet be sealed, they might still be in with a shout as we revisit the pace data from those 5-6f Windsor races used for the draw stats...

...where we're looking for those with the highest average pace score from this bunch...

Anything below 2.75 probably isn't going to be advanced enough here, especially when I've already discarded this trio...

...so it's goodbye to Lequinto and Crazy Luck here.

Summary

I have very quickly reduced the field to four runners that I may (or may not) now fancy to back win or E/W for the four places available from the bookies, of whom only Hills had prices when I wrote the piece.

Antiphon is possibly better than the 16/1 ticket might suggest. he won here over 5f on soft ground in May off today's mark and was a runner-up over course and distance six weeks ago off the same mark and now has a 7lb claimer on board. Could well make the frame here.

Lethal Nymph was a runner-up over course and distance here last time out and has finished 112 in his last three runs at Class 2. he's unproven/untested on anything softer than good to soft, so there's an elemEnt of trust involved if you want to back him at 17/2. If he takes to the heavy ground, he'd be a good E/W chance too, but I think I'd want a bigger price on a horse trying these conditions for a first time.

Indian Creak won here over course and distance on soft ground back in May and won well at Epsom last time out, but is only raised a pound for that run. He made the frame on heavy ground at Thirsk in the race follOwing his C&D success and could go well again here. I do like his chances of a top four finish and whilst not exactly generous, 17/2 isn't a bad price.

Haymaker is probably the one I like best of the four. A central draw gives him the scope to go with whoever sets the pace, the underfoot conditions shouldn't bother him and he's got a top jockey on board. He's the current 11/2 favourite which looks a little mean/short, but if pushed to pick a winner, he'd be the one. Ideally he'd drift from that price and I could back him E/W.

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