Racing Insights, Monday 15/05/23 geegeez.co.uk

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

5.15 Wolverhampton
5.25 Killarney
5.40 Musselburgh
6.55 Killarney
8.35 Windsor
8.45 Southwell

The last of these looks like the being the best on paper, at least, so let's take a look at the 8.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles (2m½f after rail movements) on good to soft ground that will be softer in places with more showers expected...

Of the nine runners, only handicap debutant Toronet was a winner last time out, but that was in a poor climing race in France back in February and he now also makes a UK debut here. Of his rivals, only Tarahumara, Restandbethankful and With A Start failed to make the frame on their last run and the best looking formline belongs to Sea The Clouds (1122).

He now runs in a handicap for just the second time, as does Tarahumara, who has also had wind surgery since his last run. The bottom two on the card are the only class movers today, as the 12 yr old veteran McGowans Pass drops down a level and the sole mare, bottom weight Karannelle steps up a grade after back to back narrow defeats as a runner-up last year at Newton Abbot.

The last of those Newton Abbot runs was some 258 days ago and none of her rivals have been away from the track longer. Most of the field have raced in the last month, aside from Toronet (76d), Tarahumara (93d) and Sea The Clouds (175d).

None of this group have won here at Southwell before, mind you just three of them have raced here before (once each), but all bar French import Toronet have won at a similar trip.

Toronet hasn't raced in the UK before, so he obviously has no previous Class 4 win, but all of his rivals bar McGowans Pass have won at this grade, whilst just three of the field have won on good to soft or soft ground, according to Instant Expert...

You'd have to think that the Ground conditions would be against Elham Valley, Restandbethankful and McGowans Pass with a combined 1 win from 24 and both Elham Valley and McGowans Pass have toiled at Class 4. In fact, the latter just doesn't seem well suited to the task in hand at all and age isn't on his side. We do have a fair smattering of green above, but not enough to hang a bet from. I'm hoping the place stats can guide me a little closer...

Well, there's certainly more green, isn't there? And if we eliminate all the red blocks...

...it would seem that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly should be the ones, who'd relish conditions the most.

Today's feature is, of course, the PACE tab but before we look at how this field normally approach their races, let's have a quick look at how this kind of race has panned out historically here at Southwell...

...which says that leader win far more than their fair share of races and even to just make the frame, you don't want to be too lose to the back of the field, which doesn't look like good news for Too Friendly or Karannell based on this from their last four outings...

Expect McGowans Pass to set the pace, as he virtually always does and whilst he's a regular top 3 finisher, having done so in 10 of his last 14, he hasn't actually managed to hang on for a win in any of those races! What's likely here is that he gives Sea The Clouds a tow into the race and makes a target of himself in the closing stages.

Summary

Alphabetically, I think Elham Valley, Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly are the best horses in the race and that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly seem the best suited by conditions. Sea The Clouds also has the best pace profile of this shortlisted group and Too friendly looks like having too much to do from the back and if we look at the field's last few results, Sea The Clouds is the 'form' horse.

With that in mind, it would have to be Sea The Clouds for me here and 5/1 is decent enough. I'd expect the others named above to be there or thereabouts, whilst McGowans Pass might run well enough to hold on for a place, depending on what happens behind him.

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