Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...
- 3.50 Downpatrick
- 5.50 Killarney
- 7.25 Killarney
- 8.10 Wolverhampton
- 8.20 Windsor
...from which, I'm going to have a quick look at the 8.20 Windsor, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...
FORM : Fast Steps, Expert Witness and Morcar all won their last races and God of Fire comes here on a hat-trick. pink Lily has won two of her last three, whilst only Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are winless in at least seven races, having been beaten in their previous ten, seven and eight outings respectively.
CLASS : All four LTO winners are up one class here, as is the fast-finishing Tribal Wisdom who was a half-length runner-up to Morcar last time around. Pink Lily also steps up in class after failing to complete a hat-trick when only fourth of five at Newmarket. Spirit of the Bay should find this a little easier today, as she drops down a class after finishing 6th of 7 over 1m2f here at Windsor, beaten by more than eight lengths a fortnight ago.
LAST RACE : All thirteen runners have had at least one run in the last five (God of Fire) to thirty-one (New Heights) days, so all should be race-tuned.
COURSE/DISTANCE RECORDS : Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if any...
Only the out of form trio of Diamond Ranger, Nap Hand and Mr Mistoffelees are yet to win over today's trip, whilst all four course winners (Fast Steps, Silver Gunn, Morcar and Monteria) have won over course and distance and for more stats we now turn to Instant Expert, where Fast Steps is probably the eye-catcher if there is one...
New Heights and Morcar should also like the underfoot conditions, but Silver Gunn is 0 from 5 on good to firm, the same record that both New Heights and Morcar have at Class 4, whilst the trip seems to have been an issue for Silver Gunn, Spirit of the Bay and Tribal Wisdom, but at least Spirit of the Bay is now rated 6lbs lower than her last win with Fast Steps, God of Fire, Expert Witness and Pink Lily all at 5/6 lbs higher than their last wins.
From a place perspective...
Fast Steps still looks the one to beat but from the going/class/course/distance categories Expert Witness also has two blocks of green and is untried at class/track and at this stage, the ones I'm still interested in are...
Previous similar races haven't shown much in the way of a draw bias, but that's not entirely unexpected over a trip of this distance with both left and right handed turns...
...but this is where our feature of the day, the pace data, comes into its own. Those races above were quite fairly shared out through the various sectors of the stalls, but they were dominated by front-runners...
...who won 24% of the races by providing just 10.2% of the runners and also accounted for over 18.5% of the placers, so whilst the draw might not make or break a runner's chances here at Windsor, there's certainly an advantage in being up with the pace and if we consider how these horses have approached their last few races...
...that's got be a positive for the likes of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily.
Summary
Fast Steps was the standout from Instant Expert and is a former course and distance winner and would probably be my pick, but for the way he has been ridden in recent races. He's going to need to get involved a little sooner here if he's to win and with that not certain to happen, I'll keep him as a placer rather than a winner.
I'm going to then take the first two from the pace list of God of Fire, Expert Witness, Morcar and Pink Lily, as they bring the best recent form to the table, God of Fire heads the pace charts and Expert Witness was the other standout from Instant Expert.
All of which gives me God of Fire, Expert Witness and Fast Steps as my three against the field. Expert Witness' LTO win came over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago and she beat God Of Fire by a length and three quarters off equal weights. God of Fire is two from two since then and will now carry 3lbs more than Expert Witness, so I'm going to side with Expert Witness here.
We'd no odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday (early dart for the football!), so here are the best 'guesstimates' from Oddschecker, Racing Post and Timeform respectively...
...which suggest there might be a bit of value in the price for Expert Witness here.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
