No column for the last two days of last week, as I was travelling through Europe to Crete, where I am now on their Easter Sunday. Enough of that, though, now back to work!
The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 3.20 Kelso
- 4.40 Redcar
- 5.15 Tramore
- 5.25 Windsor
- 5.40 Kelso
A handful of races for you to look at, but for me my dislike of April Flat / Irish / Bumper races leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 3.20 Kelso! That said, it's a decent enough contest on paper, despite being a small field. The withdrawal of Methodtothemadness means that last year's winner and top weight Bavington Bob only has four rivals for this Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m7½f. They'll have seventeen fences to clear on good to soft ground and here's the card...
None of these managed to win last time out, but both Marown and Domandlouis were runners-up and the former is now winless in eight, whilst Bavington Bob's win in this race last year was his last success and he's now on a losing streak of seven, but he is the sole course and distance winner in the field.
Of the others, Marown won a chase over 3m1f at Wetherby, whilst Saint Arvans and Domandlouis have both previously won here at Kelso over hurdles (2m½f & 2m5f respectively). Domandlouis is, however, up two classes here, whilst Bavington Bob drops down from Class 2, where five of his last seven runs/defeats have been.
Saint Arvans is turned out after just nine days rest, whilst Slanelough hasn't been seen for over 14 weeks.
Instant Expert suggests that last year's win by Bavington Bob might not have been a fluke as he would appear to be best suited by the conditions expected here...
Marown seems to have struggled at this grade over fences and if we're honest, he just hasn't won often enough since starting his career with a bumper win and two hurdles successes. Domandlouis hasn't much experience under today's conditions, but a line of red is less than encouraging. Bavington Bob is clearly the one at class/trip that they'd have to beat and the report of last year's triumph says...held up, headway on outer over 3 out, ridden in 2nd under 2 out and soon challenged, led last, ran on well and pulled clear flat, won comfortably by nine lengths...
His recent pace profile suggests that he's likely to be waited with once again...
...whilst the pace-setter is expected to be Slanelough, who has made all to win four of his last ten over fences, but it should be noted that he's 0 from 9 beyond 2m4f!
Leaders haven't had it all their own way in small field chases here at Kelso, though, but they have performed significantly better than hold-up horses, suggesting that Bavington Bob's success last season might have been a rare exception to the norm...
...stats that would appear to hand the initiative to Domandlouis, Saint Arvan & Marown.
Summary
Marown is the relatively short-priced favourite here at 15/8, but he's 2lbs heavier than when beaten over 2m4f last time out and I should point out that he lost his previous two by 33 and 47 lengths respectively when asked to run three miles, so 15/8 is too skinny for me.
Domandlouis is next best in the betting at 9/4, but he was beaten by 7.5 lengths over this trip last time out and is now up two classes, so it might well be right time/right place for last year's winner, Bavington Bob. Instant Expert says he'll relish the conditions most, he gets the track and trip and has a good record at Class 3. He's back to his last winning mark and although the pace profile casts doubts, it's not as though he'll have a wall of traffic ahead of him, there are only five runners here.
BB is currently priced at 7/2 with Hills and whilst I thought we might get a little more juice in the price than that, he'd be the one that represented best value here to me.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
