Racing Insights, Monday 18/03/24

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

• 3.40 Curragh
• 4.18 Fontwell
• 5.30 Newcastle
• 6.30 Newcastle

Monday's racing is generally pretty poor and the Monday following the Cheltenham Festival is usually even worse and such is the case again this year, I'm afraid. We've a card or rider restricted races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and 13 NH races at Fontwell and Southwell, the highest-rated of which are half a dozen at Class 4. Of those six races, the only one with more than six runners is a 10-runner maiden where the field only have 34 previous races between them.

So, I'll be honest with you here, I probably won't be having a bet on any of Monday's racing, but for the sake of the column, I'm going to look at the 4.30 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on soft ground over what is essentially 2m 5.25f after a rail movement of 188 yards...

My initial thoughts are that the bottom two on the card, Quian & Over Milk Wood would be up against it here, but that you could probably make a case for any of the other four...

POZO EMERY has finished in the first three home in all of his five starts over hurdles, but has only won once (2m3½f) and comes here on the back of a 16 length defeat as a runner-up at Sandown last time out. Up in trip today and tries the tongue tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time.

FLYING FORTUNE makes a handicap debut in his fourth start over hurdles having finished 3411 in four bumpers in the first half of 2023. Her best run over hurdles was his second effort when a 3 length runner-up at Newton Abbot in October, but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ffos Las last time out. That was over four months ago, so she's a layoff to contend with too.

HOSTILE HOTELIER is up in class here and wears a tongue tie for the first time and comes here off the back of a pair of runner-up finishes, albeit in defeats of 7.5 lengths over hurdles and by 12 lengths over fences last time out. He did win on his handicap hurdle debut last November and now races at just 4lbs higher than that win.

JUBILEE GOLD has only raced five times so far, but has a win and two places from the three races he has completed and was only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield on soft ground last time out. The winner of that race won again next time out and the third placed horse has finished second and first in his two run since. This horse is up in class here, though.

QUIAN won two starts ago at Taunton, but that run was the exception to how he normally fares, having lost his previous six races by an average of 54 lengths per race and reverted back to losing ways last time out, when only fifth of six at Huntingdon. has failed to see 2m out regularly, so 2m5f-plus poses more problems here.

OVER MILK WOOD has yet to make the frame in seven starts and has been beaten by 92, 24, 60, 7, 31, 59 and 74 lengths in those races. In his defence, he does drop in class here for his second handicap run and has at least tackled this trip before, but I'm struggling for other positives if truth be told.

We're not going to get much from the win stats on Instant Expert, so I'm showing you the place data too...

...which would suggest we're better off focusing on Pozo Emery, Flying Fortune and Jubilee Gold in a type of contest where leaders and hold-up horses haven't fared as well as those positioned somewhere between the two, which based on the field's last few runs...

...isn't the best news for Jubilee Gold from my trio of Instant Expert standouts.

Summary

A poor race on an awful day of racing, where I won't be having a bet, but if I was having one in this race, my tentative pick would be Pozo Emery at 7/1 E/W. Jubilee Gold and Flying Fortune should also be in the mix, but it's not a race to spend too much time on.

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• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 30/11/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 28/11/24