Racing Insights, Monday 20/02/23
The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 3.15 Carlisle
- 4.45 Lingfield
- 5.00 Newcastle
...from which I'm heading North East for a quick look at the 5.00 Newcastle, a six-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f on standard tapeta...
VICTORY MARCH has failed to make the frame in three starts this year after winning each of his last three in 2022 and finishing 1212111 in his last seven of that year. That run of form took his mark from 53 to 80 and he now looks too high in the weights to win. He is, however, down in class and has won two of three previous efforts over course and distance.
BUXTED TOO looks the form horse here, finishing 3111 in four starts this year, winning three times at 1m4f/1m4½f after a third over 1m2f. The mniddle of those three wins was here over course and distance and although he's up 3lbs for hi last win, he is down in class and will probably be the one to beat.
GREEN PLANET is a 13-race maiden across five spheres (1 x NHF, 1 x chs, 6 x hrds, 2 x flat and 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced on the Flat for 21 months nor on the A/W for 23 months, but his A/W form does read 223. That said, he really looks up against it here on his yard debut for Jedd O'Keeffe.
CASA LUNA is also a maiden, but after just three unplaced (4th of 9, 3rd of 7 & 3rd of 6) runs on polytrack. She's also making her yard (and handicap) debut here for Philip Kirby off an opening mark of 71, which seems neither generous or onerous if truth be told. She was well beaten over a mile and also over 1m4f, but was only beaten by just over half a length at Chelmsford over 1m2f on her second outing and that might be her trip. Others make a better case here.
TYPEWRITTEN is the third of the trio making starts for new handlers today and she comes here after a pair of placed (2 x 3rd of 10) finishes in Class 5 A/W handicaps over 1m6f and then 2m½f on tapeta at Southwell and Wolverhampton. This grey mare now drops back in trip, but she has raced ten times (3 wins and 3 places) over 1m4f, so that drop shouldn't be an issue and I'd expect her to go well.
JUBILEE GIRL has just six races under her belt and having finished 544 in three runs on turf last summer to acquire a handicap mark of 65, she took six months off prior to an A/W campaign this winter starting with a pipe opener over 1m2f here at Newcastle on Jan 13th. She then won over 1m3f at Southwell eight days later, before going down to the re-opposing Buxted Too here over C&D 13 days later (17 days ago) She was a runner-up that day, beaten by just a length. Jubilee Girl is now 5lbs better than Buxted Too, so there's every chance she could overturn the deficit, especially if she's handily placed late on as she's marked on the card as a fast finisher.
At this point Buxted Too and Jubilee girl seem the pair to focus on and this is backed by Instant Expert, albeit off small amounts of data...
Now these two couldn't be drawn any further apart here, but regular readers of my 'stuff' know that I don't always place huge importance on the draw when you've got a small field over a trip longer than a mile, but there are exceptions to every rule and the stats suggest that a mid-to-high draw here is better than being drawn low...
...which is advantage Buxted Too over Jubilee Girl and if we run those same races above through our Pace Analyser...
...we find that those who have been waited with are the ones to be on and that unsurprisingly the next graphic, the pace/draw heat map, shows a strong bias to mid-t0-high drawn hold up types...
If we the revert back to our draw and our two initially favoured runners, Jubilee Girl's best chance from Stall 1 would appear to come from a prominent running style, whilst wider out, Buxted Too would be advised to tuck in towards the back.
But how do we know how they'll run? Well, sadly, we don't! But because we log every runner's racing style, we can often build up a fairly clear picture of how they might run. We allocate a score of 1 to a hold-up run, 2 denotes mid-division positioning with 3 for a prominent run. Leaders get 4 (surprise, surprise) and here's how the field have raced in their last four (last three for Casa Luna, of course) outings...
...and this suggests that both Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl like to race in a prominent position and that it's Victory March and/or Typewritten who will be the back marker(s). The latter, typewritten was interesting from my write-ups above, when I said I'd expect her to go well and from an ideal Pace/Draw setup, she should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl.
Summary
I've just said that Typewritten should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl and that's exactly how I see it, but to get involved she'll need one of that pair to run poorly. She's currently a 6/1 shot, which isn't quite long enough for my liking as an E/W play when there are only two places paid, because I can't see her beating both of the favoured pair. However, if a 25% profit from the race is enough for you, than a 6/1 E/W bet on Typewritten might suit you.
As for the winner, Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl are best priced at 15/8 and 7/2, but I don't think those odds reflect their respective chances and I'd have expected something closer to 9/4 vs 11/4 when you consider than Jubilee Girl is 5lbs better off than a one length defeat and I think that she would be the value play here at 7/2 with Bet365. (forecasts and reverse forecasts, too?)
