Racing Insights, Saturday 11/02/23 geegeez.co.uk

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one runner under the 1-year form filter...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

2.25 Newbury
2.33 Lingfield
3.13 Warwick
4.00 Naas
7.00 Wolverhampton

It's a decent looking contest that Sayadam is entered into, but we don't often have top quality Grade 2 contests on the 'free list' and as it's named after one of my all-time favourite jumpers, I feel I should look at the Denman Chase. The card says it's the 2.25 Newbury, a 7-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 18 fences on good ground, The race is worth almost £40k to the winner and the trip is just shy of 2m7½f, these are the runners...

There's a school of thought that this is two races in one, where Eldorado Allen, Fanion D'Estruval and Hitman will battle it out for the big money and the rest scrap it out for the remnants of the pot and to be perfectly honest with you, I'd be inclined to agree.

Does He Know won LTO and four races ago, Hitman won two starts back, as did Zanza whilst Sam Brown won three back. Eldorado Allen, Sam Brown & Fanion D'Estruval all sport cheekpieces for the first time whilst Kalashnikow tries blinkers. Five of the field were last seen on Boxing Day, but Sam brown has been off for ten weeks and Does He Know's LTO win was three months ago. He's the only one yet to win here at Newbury, but he has won over a similar trip in a 3m chase at Ascot, whereas Sam Brown's distance win was over fences at Lingfield. Top and bottom on the card, Eldorado Allen and Zanza are former course and distance winners.

The Geegeez-sponsored yard of Anthony Honeyball train Sam Brown and he's the oldest in the field at 11, whilst the youngest is the likely fav, the 7yo Hitman who attempts to go beyond 2m5½f for only the second time (pulled up at Kempton LTO on first try). Hitman is however, best off at the weights based on weight carried to official ratings and he's 2lbs better off than Fanion D'Estruval and a whole 17lbs clear of Zanza, who looks worst off by a good way.

Those course and distance wins mentioned above are documented below in Instant Expert, along with the stats for Class and Going...

...and they interestingly show Does He Know in a very good light and he's already won a Grade 2 and a Class 1 handicap this year. Ten of Fanion D'Estruval's fourteen starts have been at Class 1, but he has yet to win any and has only made the frame twice. Hitman (0/9) and Kalashnikov (1/11) have also struggled at this level, but the former has at least made the frame in five of those nine defeats and will be seeking to do better here in a race where last year's winner Eldorado Allen and the veteran Sam Brown are the likeliest front-runners...

Three of the field were held up LTO, but I suspect they'll all race ahead of Fanion D'Estruval and Kalashnikov, because if they don't, there's going to be nothing going on behind the front pair who might set themselves up for a free tilt at the prize money. That's actually a decent tactic and the further back the hold-up types drop, the less chance they'll have of winning, if past races are anything to go by...

In fact the story of last year's win for Eldorado Allen goes like this...Led, but hit 12th fence and was narrowly headed at the 13th. He then chased and caught the leader for himself to lead again 4 out, ending up 3 lengths clear at the last, staying on strongly on the run-in... A similar approach here might well yield a similar result.

Summary

I'm not that keen on the favourite, Hitman, here to be honest. He bled last time out and that's a concern, he's never actually gone this far in a race and has a poor win record at Class 1, making Eldorado Allen a more attractive option to me at 11/4.

Fanion D'Estruval completes the 'favoured' trio, but he might have to come from a long way back to get involved and I've got a feeling that Does He Know might run a better race than his 7/1 odds might suggest. Bookies are generally paying three places here, so he might be an option for a cheeky E/W punt.

Whatever you decide to do, I hope you all have a great weekend. I'm away with the family for my mother-in-law's 75th Birthday, so my next instalment will be on Monday evening for Tuesday's racing.

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