Racing Insights, Saturday 20/07/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

• 1.50 Newbury
• 3.35 Newbury
• 4.50 Curragh
• 5.20 Newbury
• 5.45 Doncaster
• 8.30 Haydock

...and of the ten races above, the one that probably suits me best (although I won't know until I'm in the middle of it!) would initially appear to be the 5.20 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

Top-weight Zouky hasn't been seen for fifteen weeks since finishing 5th of 10 at Kempton in a Listed race, but she drops two classes here. She has won here over 6f and 7f in the past, but as the sole 4yo in the race she's effectively penalised to the tune of 8lbs.

Bellarchi's last win was in mid-May over this trip at a higher class and she has won two of her last seven. She's the quickest turned out in the field, having been 7th of 11 at Ascot a week ago.

Circe has only raced five times to date (4 on the Flat) finishing third and first in her first two starts, but has failed to place since and now returns from a 12-week break.

Sunfall was third of seven at Chester three weeks ago and has won two of her last four and drops in class here.

Battle Queen also drops in class and also won two starts ago, but finished 6th at Ascot four weeks ago. Mind you, it was a 30-runner handicap, so she wasn't disgraced.

Shemozzle has finished 132 in her three starts to date and was only beaten by a neck at Haydock eight weeks ago on her last outing. She now steps up in class for her handicap debut.

Bottom weight Dramatic Effect is our only LTO winner, having landed a Class 4 Novice event over this trip at Goodwood six weeks ago. Prior to that she was 4th of 9 on handicap debut and she now steps up in class for a second tilt at a handicap.

With so many inexperienced runners here, we've not much to show you on Instant Expert, if truth be told...

...but we can see that most of the field have had at least one decent run on good ground and that a couple of them have made the frame at this level.

A straight run on good ground generally means that there's little to be gained from the draw, aside from the fact that those drawn lowest often have the rail as a guide to keep them straight and this seems to be the case here too...

...whereas with the pace stats from those races, it's a different story and it's the hold-up horses that have fared best of all, especially from a place perspective, although leaders have also won their fair share and it looks like the prominent chaser is the one to avoid here...

...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...

...with Sunfall and Dramatic Effect the more likely back markers.

Summary

There's not a lot to choose between them here, but I think it's Sunfall for me. She's in good form (1013), she's drawn low and will be held up, both of which look ideal for this track/trip.

As for the rest, I think Battle Queen might be the one who creates most problems for my pick, having won at Nottingham in May and was subsequently sixth in the 30-runner Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot from stall 1. Interestingly the five that beat her came from stalls 18, 33, 28, 4 and 22, so she was second home of her group.

I'm early to press today (now 2.25pm Friday), as I've got to get to the dentist this afternoon, so no prices available just yet.

Have a great weekend,
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24