Racing Insights, Saturday 21/01/23
Another cold day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...
...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which were set to be...
- 12.40 Ascot
- 1.30 Haydock
- 2.12 Lingfield
- 3.00 Ascot
- 4.20 Taunton
- 6.30 Wolverhampton
Seeing as we've already lost Ascot and Taunton and there are doubts over Haydock and Southwell, I'm going to hang fire and wait until Saturday morning before adding my preview.
As those of us up in the North West expected, we lost Haydock too, leaving me with two 'free' races and two possibles from the TJC Report. The best (on paper, at least) of those four races is the one featuring the Haggas/Marquand combo above, the 2.47 Lingfield, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack. It's the Winter Oaks and is worth over £50k and we do have a short-priced fav, but let's see how Morgan Fairy might get on against these...
I normally do my piece before the markets have fully formed, but today I can see the full picture and the betting seems to spilt the field into two halves...
...and my own figures also have the same spilt, where I'm expecting Al Agaila, Purple Ribbon, Morgan Fairy and Makinmedoit as the ones to focus on, but I'm going to see if a case can be made for a longer-priced E/W punt.
The Flying Ginger is the only one of the field without a win in her most recent form line and I'm going to dismiss her straight from the start because she's not in great form, her yard isn't firing right now, she's up two classes and runs from 6lbs out of the handicap. That's probably as many negatives as one needs!
As for the others, all have at least one win from five, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila have two and the latter is one of three (with Morgan Fairy & Aiming High) who won last time out. Fetured horse, Morgan Fairy is up one class here whilst At A Pinch and Aiming High are up two and three grades respectively. Top weight, Purple Ribbon, however was a runner-up, beaten by just a neck in a Listed race whern last seen.
The fav, Al Agaila, won on handicap debut last time out, landing the Winter Oaks Trial here over course and distance with the re-opposing Makinmedoit & Tequilamockingbird separated by a short head, some 2.5 lengths behind the winner. All three of those horses have now won over this course and distance.
At A Pinch makes a handicap debut here and she's the only one without a win at track or trip and hasn't raced on the Flat/AW for fifteen months, which will make this tough. After the three C&D winners, only Morgan Fairy has won at this venue, getting home by a neck over a mile on New Year's Eve.
All eight have run in the last eight weeks with just The Flying Ginger and Aiming High with a run in 2023. This pair are the only two yet to win on standard going, half of the field are previous Class 2 winners and we've already talked about course/distance winners. Instant Expert brings all this data together in a simple-to-view graphic...
As per the market and my own figures, Makinmedoit and Al Agaila feature strongly. Purple Ribbon has little experience and is without a Class 2 run, but did come very close to landing a Listed race last time out. Morgan Fairy tackles an A/W 1m2f for the first time here after running mainly over a mile, so may have to dig deep.
Of the lesser favoured half of the field, Tequilamockingbird is the one most likely to "win" that race on these figures. She has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 A/W starts, finishing 113 in her three visits to Lingfield all over course and distance.
She's drawn in stall 6, one place inside Makinmedoit, whilst the other three principals have bagged the inside three berths over a course and distance that would initially appear to favour those drawn lowest...
...but stall-by-stall data suggests that it's not quite that clear-cut...
...and I personally, wouldn't be too concerned which of the eight stalls my runner emerged from to be honest. Ideally, stalls 2 or 3 would be great, but even box 8 has won as often as #3. The Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map would tend to suggest tht this race could be won/lost by where in the field a horse positions itself..
..as aside from low drawn leaders, prominent runners are the most successful irrespective of draw and this is backed up by the pace stats for those 130+ races above...
These say to that a hold-up runner represents your worst chance of getting any money back from an E/W perspective and the win chance is almost as poor as those in mid-division. Mid-div horses do make the frame almost as often as prominent runners, but I think you're going to want a runner in the front half of the pack and based on this field's most recent runs...
...that's yet another tick for Al Agaila, but interestingly both Purple Ribbon and Makinmedoit are hold-up types. The latter, of course was second to the fav here LTO from that hold-up position, so it might not necessarily rule her out, especially as she's now 10lbs better off!
So, from my original four Al Agaila is the low drawn leader we looked for, Morgan Fairy is likely to be prominent, as also possible E/W punt Tequilamockingbird should be.
Summary
I started with four 'most likelys' and I think they're still exactly that, but it's very hard to get away from the 10/11 favourite Al Agaila. My pockets aren't deep enough to have a large enough bet to make it worthwhile, but if I did then she'd be the one here for me. That said, Makinmedoit is now 10lbs better than her runner-up run LTO which should get her much closer to the fav (on paper), although you suspect there's far more to come from the winner.
At 9/1, though, Makinmedoit wouldn't be a bad E/W prospect and at as big as 16's in places, nor would Teqiulamockingbird. I still think Purple Ribbon and Morgan fairy will run well, but they're not my idea of a winner in this race and aren't long enough for me to back E/W.
Whatever happens, it has the makings of a decent contest.