Racing Insights, Saturday 24/08/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

• 3.00 York
• 3.05 Killarney
• 3.15 Goodwood
• 3.20 Newmarket
• 5.25 Killarney
• 6.00 Redcar

from which I'm taking a look at the Group 2 City of York Stakes from the free list aka the 3.00 York, an 8-runner affair for horses aged 3 or over and the trip is a left-handed 7f on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this race might well boil down to a battle between Kinross (who won this race in 2022 and 2023) and Lake Forest (who gets a 5lb allowance as the sole 3yo in the race) for the right to finish second behind Audience, who I suspect will go off as a pretty short favourite, but let's have a proper look.

ART POWER has been useful in the past and ended last season with a Gr1 win on Champions Day at Ascot. Has yet to win in five attempts this season, but was a 4-lengths second to Audience in the Gr2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood 25 days ago, although he was afforded a soft lead that day.

AUDIENCE ran alone and made all to win the Gr1 Lockinge at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance in May, but was only fifth in the Queen Anne a month later. He soon put that run behind him to land the afore-mentioned Lennox at Goodwood 25 days ago and looks the one to beat here.

FIVETHOUSANDTOONE has only won one of eighteen starts on the Flat and having finished 17th of 18 and 17th of 25 in his last two starts (both Class 2 handicaps), he'd not be high on many shortlists here.

KINROSS was a Gr1 winner on Champions Day to end the 2022 season after winning this race and another Gr2 contest at Doncaster. He also won the Lennox and this race last year and was third behind Audience and Art Power in this year's Lennox after blowing the start. He'll need to get away sharper if he want a third win in this race.

SHOULDVEBEENARING has lost ten on the bounce in the UK since landing a listed race at Newmarket in May 2023 and whilst he has four top three finishes at Class 1 during that run of defeats, you'd have to think there are at least one or two to beat him again today.

VAFORTINO won a Listed race at Redcar back in October and was sixth in this year's Wokingham followed by a near-three length defeat in a Chester Listed contest last time out. A steady performer, but steady cuts little mustard at Group 2!

BREEGE gets a 3lb weight allowance as the only female in the race and she started this season the same way she finished the last one, making the frame but losing by a head in a Listed race (Ascot & Goodwood) but she did last the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth at Epsom in June. Only 7th of 9 last time out and this is a tougher race, so she's likely to be down the pecking order once more.

LAKE FOREST gets that useful 5lb 3yo allowance here and comes here in good nick. He won the Gimcrack here over 6f last August and has been a runner-up at both Gr1 and Gr3 in his two races this term. Tends to run on late, so the step up to 7f might suit and after just seven races, he's not fully exposed.

INSTANT EXPERT almost inevitably points us back towards Audience and Kinross...

...and highlights Vafortino's lack of success at this trip. Breege is also winless in five attempts at 7f and has a really poor win return in Class 1 contests, losing 10 of 11, although she has made the frame in half of those ten defeats...

...and she is relatively well drawn if past races here are anything to go by...

That said, the draw influence isn't huge as the bend here on the 7f track is quite gentle and it's often race positioning aka pace that settles the contests here...

...with front-runners having most joy, which could be good news for the likes of Art Power, Audience and Breege based on their most recent efforts...

Summary

I still think Audience is the best in the race and will win here, but we're not getting rich at odds ranging from 5/4 to 6/4. Kinross and Lake Forest are still what I consider to be next bests, but at 11/4 to 4/1 probably offer little value/point to a bet, so it might well be the likes of Art Power as an E/W option at 12's today. He split Audience and Kinross last time out, so could he do it again?

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 14/09/24
• Tix Picks, Friday 13/09/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 12/09/24
• Tix Picks, 11th September 2024
• Tix Picks, Monday 9th September 2024