Racing Insights, Saturday 27/07/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated no UK combos for me to check out but thankfully, as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

• 2.05 York
• 2.10 Chester
• 3.00 Ascot
• 4.15 Ascot
• 6.30 Salisbury
• 6.45 Lingfield

...and I've got reasons for not wanting to look at any of those like maidens, jump jockeys on the Flat and field sizes, so I'm going to randomly select the day's highest rated/most valuable race that has at least 6 runners and that happens to be the 2.25 Ascot, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Group 3 Flat contest over a right-handed mile on good/good to firm ground that is being watered to stop it getting any quicker...

I strongly suspect that this will be a race of two halves with the three three year olds (Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano) using their 8lbs weight allowance to battle with Sirona for positions in the first four home.

One of those 3yo's Devoted Queen is our only LTO winner and she defends a 3 from 3 record here today. Elsewhere Doom won three starts ago and has seven top-3 finishes on the bounce, whilst Naomi Lapaglia has won two of her six starts but might need a run after a 10 month break.

Sirona won four starts ago and then made the frame in a pair of Group 3 races before a 4 length Group 1 defeat last time out. Friendly Soul has won two of her three starts, but was well beaten in the Musidora and Soprano won here over course and distance five weeks ago and was third in a Listed race last time out.

On the cold list, though, are Julia Augusta and Thornbrook after ten and seven successive defeats respectively, but both have won over today's trip unlike Doom and Sirona, whilst our sole course win was that by the fast-finisher Soprano over this track and trip five weeks ago. Instant Expert looks like this...

...with the three year olds taking centre stage, although Doom and Sirona have good place records. Sirona and Thornbrook's Class 1 stats aren't great, though and Sirona has also been found wanting at this trip, so I'm less keen on her right now even if the draw might help her more than Thornbrook in stall 1...

...there's not actually much in it to be fair, especially from a place perspective and I suspect it'll be race tactics aka pace that sorts the wheat from the chaff here.

That said, there's not a great deal there either, but those in mid-division have fared slightly better than the others, which could be good news for Devoted Queen and Friendly Soul based on past efforts...

Summary

The three 3yo's are the best off at the weights with the 4yo Sirona having the joint highest OR and it's these four that I think are the ones to focus on.

Sirona obviously doesn't have the 8lbs weight allowance and wasn't as impressive on Instant Expert as the other three, plus her late run hold-up style could go against her here, so she's going to be the odd one out of my quartet, leaving me with Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano.

I don't think there's much between them, but on form you'd have to put Soprano third and then make a decision on the other two. Devoted Queen is drawn higher, but Friendly Soul has pace either side of her, but she did run poorly last time out, so its Devoted Queen - Friendly Soul - Soprano for me.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 14/09/24
• Tix Picks, Friday 13/09/24
• Tix Picks, Thursday 12/09/24
• Tix Picks, 11th September 2024
• Tix Picks, Monday 9th September 2024