Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...
- 1.50 Ascot
- 3.00 Ascot
- 3.10 Thirsk
- 3.35 Ascot
- 6.30 Sandown
- 6.50 Chepstow
...the highest-rated of which is the 3.35 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good/good to firm ground...
Chasing Aphrodite, Insanity and Mutaawid all won last time out, whilst Burdett Road, Hosaamm, Wonder Kid and Mount Atlas all had top-three finishes.
All nine runners have won at least one of their last three outings, but whilst Burdett Road and Tabletalk drop down in class today, Chasing Aphrodite and Wonder Kid are up from Class 3, Insanity is up from Class 4 and Hosaamm steps up from Class 5 for his handicap debut.
It's also handicap debut day for Mutaaid, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas, whilst Alfred Boucher runs for the first time since being pulled up at Chester 22 months ago. He's entitled to need the run, but might be worth keeping an eye out for in future as he finished 2212 at Class 2 in the four runs before he was pulled up LTO.
Top weight Burdett Road might also need the run as he comes back from a six month break since a Grade 2 runner-up run at Cheltenham over hurdles and now runs on the Flat for the first time in eleven months. Insanity has been off the track for three months, but the others have all had at least one run in the last 13 (Wonder Kid) to 55 (Tabletalk) days.
Only four of this field (Alfred Boucher, Insanity, Mutaawid & Wonder Kid) have scored over today's trip with Alfred Boucher winning over course and distance three years ago; Burdett Road (1m2f) and Chasing Aphrodite (1m) have also tasted success on this track in the past as shown below in the 2-year stats on Instant Expert...
As you can see, the going shouldn't be an issue to most of this field, but they are shy on Class 2 runs/wins although Chasing Aphrodite is also 2 from 3 at Class 3. Insanity and Wonder Kid are the pick of the pack over this trip, but the latter is now rated some 11lbs higher than his last win, as is top-weight Burdett Road. The place stats from those races tell a similar story and neither help nor hinder us...
With regards to the draw, past races here over this going, track and trip have favoured runners in stalls 5, 6 and 7 from a win perspective, with those berthed in stall 5 or higher having the best chance of making the frame, although the margins are a little tighter for the places...
...whilst the pace data from those races suggests that horses can win from anywhere in the pack, even if those in mid-division haven't quite done as well as others...
...creating this resultant draw/pace heat map...
So, we can see where we'd like each runner to be in the field as they run. Those drawn centrally can run their own race, but those drawn lowest will probably need to lead, whilst the higher drawn trio would be advised to sit in. We now need to check how they 'normally' run, now some of these only have three runs to their name, so looking at the entire field's last three outings...
...we see that Burdett Road might well fulfil the role of high drawn hold-up horse, whilst from the lowest drawn trio, Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid may well be the ones setting the tempo of the race.
Summary
I think I'm going to go with the three who aren't drawn centrally, but do tick the pace/draw heat map boxes ie Chasing Aphrodite, Mutaawid and Burdett Road.
I know Burdett Road might need the run, but his last two races were a win and a runner-up finish in Grade 2 company, albeit over hurdles and his last flat handicap run saw him win here at Ascot at this grade last year. he'd be an unlikely winner, but a 'live' E/W prospect if the price is/was right.
Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid both won last time out, one has won here and one has won over this trip, but the handicap debutant Mutaawid gets an 11lbs weight for age allowance and that should swing things his way .
The bookies, however, take a slightly different view on things and at 5.30pm Thursday they went...
...they do agree that Mutaawid is the likeliest winner here, but are less keen on Burdett Road and very cold about Chasing Aphrodite's prospects, but I think he might be a decent 14/1 E/W bet.
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