Racing Insights, Saturday 28/10/23
Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...
30-day form...
1-year form...
and course 5-year form...
...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
- 1.30 Newbury
- 1.50 Cheltenham
- 2.39 Kelso
- 4.29 Kelso
- 4.45 Cheltenham
- 6.00 Chelmsford
There's a card full of Class 2 races at Jumps HQ and whilst there are more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, I'm going to see if I can highlight any potential E/W bets (Bookies are paying 4 & 5 places) in the 2.25 Cheltenham, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1f (+88yds) on good/good to soft ground...
If we start with what the card tells us, we see that Quick Draw and Whacker Clan both won last time out and that Twig comes here seeking a hat-trick. He, like bottom-weight Swapped, has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings, whilst top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has twelve consecutive top-three finishes including seven wins, whereas Mister Fogpatches is winless in eleven and Yes Indeed is an eight-race maiden.
Hidden Heroics has had wind surgery since he last ran some 162 days ago, whilst Wayfinder has been off for 229 days and has also undergone a wind op during that time. Lord Accord won this race last year and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but Kinondo Kwetu, Twig, Brief Times, Undersupervision, Wayfinder, Snapped and Hidden Heroics have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere with the latter named being the only other previous Cheltenham winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap novice chase over 3m2f last December, as included below in Instant Expert...
Top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has never been to HQ before, but ticks plenty of boxes otherwise in a promising-looking graphic with quite a bit of green championing the causes of Twig, Lord Accord, Hidden Heroics, Wayfinder and Swapped. The Wolf is the one who looks least suited by expected conditions and we know that Yes Indeed has failed to win all eight career starts, but the graphic below says he does have some place form at least...
...but he's still way down my list of possibles that continues to be headed by Kinindo Kwetu. He tends to bide his time in mid-division to come for a late run and if we look at how the entire field have approached their last few races, I suspect the early pace will come from the likes of Hidden Heroics, Whacker Clan and Swapped...
There's no out and out hold-up horse on that graphic, but deeper digging says that those two recent prominent runs from The Wolf are out of character and he usually races in the rear, so he and Mister Fogpatches will probably be the early back-markers over a course and distance that doesn't really have a huge course bias...
...as we've all watched numerous Cheltenham Festival 3m+ chases and seen winners from the front, middle and back. Cheltenham is a true test in my opinion and those best suited to conditions are the ones who tend to do best.
Summary
With the lack of a draw in NH racing and little pace bias to work from, we revert back to form and ability/suitability to the task and the ones ticking the boxes for me in that respect are Kinondo Kwetu, Twig and Quick Draw with honourable mentions for the likes of Swapped.
In a big field like this, I tend to either not get involved or just look for some E/W action and with all bookies paying at least four places (5 at PP/Sky!), there should be some scope for us here. To be honest, I'd be happy to back all four on an E/W basis if the price was right.
Quick Draw is borderline at 15/2, but Kinondo Kwetu and Twig are priced at 12's and 9's respectively and this pair have got great chances in my eyes.
Swapped is completely unfancied by the market and you can get 33/1 for 5 places and whilst this is a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, his form over fences (21112) is excellent and he receives weight all round. It'd be a bit of a shock if he won, but he could well take a top five position if things fall his way.
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