Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/07/23

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

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...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.02 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 7.15 Salisbury
  • 8.30 Windsor

I do like to try and 'marry up' our free feature with the daily race list, but the 3.00 Ascot featuring Star of Orion from the TJC Report is a 26-runner affair and I just don't get involved in such races, so I'm turning my attentions to the 4.10 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

Of the ten, only Coco Bear comes here after win and he has actually won his last three, but hasn't been seen for eleven weeks, whilst all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks. Bernardo O'Reilly was in action on Thursday of this week, whilst Chairmanoftheboard ran as recently as last Friday, when a runner-up at a higher grade, making him the only runner, other than Coco Bear, to be placed last time around.

Chairmanoftheboard isn't the only one dropping in from Class 2, though, as the other two runners, Silver Samurai and Hierarchy, from the top three in the weights both make the same step down. Three (Tiger Crusade, Spring Bloom & bottom weight Sir Oliver) ran at this level last time out, but Bernardo O'Reilly, Justcallmepete, Priscilla's Wish and the returning Coco Bear all step up from Class 4.

Spring Bloom is the only one yet to win at this trip, but only Chairmanoftheboard has won here at Newmarket, courtesy of a course and distance success just over three years ago and he has ditched his usual cheekpieces here but wears a visor for only the second time and the first since May 2019 some 31 races ago!

Instant Expert suggests that good to soft ground might not be the ideal metier for him from a win perspective, but he wouldn't want it any quicker than this and the same report shows how poor Spring Bloom's record is at this trip...

Spring Bloom has had thirteen attempts at winning over 6f on turf, which isn't very good at all, but he does have a 64% place strike rate on the Flat over his career and this is reflected in the place stats below...

Chairmanoftheboard's record at Class 3 is a little surprising, as he has made the frame in 8 of 17 runs at Class 2, so he's certainly not out of his depth here and aside from Bernardo O'Reilly not seeming to run well here, there aren't too many grounds for concern about those place records above.

Somewhat surprisingly, there does seem to be a bit of a bias towards those drawn lowest in previous similar contests...

...but over a straight 6f on what should be one of the best tracks in the country, I still think that any advantage wouldn't be that pronounced and that we should read more into how those races above have been won and our pace analyser says that half of those who lead go on to make the frame and that 1 in 5 leaders win with the general advice being to race as far forward as you can...

...which based on recent outings would tend to put the likes of Silver Samurai and Bernardo O'Reilly at a disadvantage...

...but Justcallmepete could relish the opportunity of a potential soft lead from a relatively low draw.

Summary

For me, Chairmanoftheboard and Coco Bear are the best two horses in the race with me preferring the former. He ran well last time out and now drops in class, whilst the latter is up in class and hasn't raced for eleven weeks, although he did win his last three races, all on soft ground. He actually won three starts ago after a six-month lay-off, so this recent break might not make any difference, but up in class mon a career-high mark might just stop Coco Bear from beating Chairmanoftheboard.

As for a placer or E/W bet, Spring Bloom caught the eye on Instant Expert but he does blow hot and cold, whilst front-runner Justcallmepete might prove hard to catch in a race with no other real pace.

No odds on this one at 3.30pm Friday, so I'll have to revisit this later.

 

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