Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/02/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

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  • 1.45 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Ffos Las
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...and it's the last of that trio that is the highest rated, so I'll focus on the 7.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

My immediate thoughts were that whilst this isn't a great race, it looks very competitive, so let's look at the card and take away what we already know.

Twilight Madness and Level Up both won last time out, but the latter is now up in class. Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were both runners-up LTO and both won three races ago. Top weight Rocking Ends drops in class and wears a visor for the first time as he aims to end a sequence of ten defeats after winning three of his first eight career starts. Crimson Sand also won three of his first eight, but is 0 from 17 since, but he is noted on the card as a fast finisher.

All seven have raced in the last five weeks and all have won over today's trip already with Pop Dancer our sole course and distance winner, whilst Crimson Sand's last win was on this track albeit over 6f back in August 2021. Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have fared in past races under similar conditions...

...and the verdict is that they've not quite set the world alight. My causes for concern above include Crimson Sand (going/course/distance), Dynamic Force (generally), Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (going/distance) and I've got to hope that the place form stacks up better than the above...

...which, in fairness, it does to an extent. I've still concerns over Dynamic Force generally, Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (class), though and the latter is now rated some 10lbs higher than his last win.  Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up score best above and they're spread across the stalls in boxes 1, 2, 4 & 7 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn lower in the past...

...but let's not beat about the bush here, this is 5f at Chelmsford and the draw plays second fiddle to the pace setup and this is how those 180+ races above has been won...



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...where the basic premise is to get out quickly and stay out as long as you can and if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by, an 18th successive defeat is on the cards for Crimson Sand...

Summary

Twilight Madness, Level Up, Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were the pick on form with Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up the takeaways from our free feature, Instant Expert. The pace profiles effectively wrote Crimson Sand off, leaving us with Twilight Madness and Level Up ticking all three boxes (form/IE/pace). Both won last time out and I fancy both to have a good chance of making the frame with Twilight Madness my marginal pick of the two.

With six runners priced between 9/2 and 7/1 at 4.45pm, only Rocking Ends' 10/1 ticket is worth considering as an E/W option, but he'd be well down my list of options here and the role of market outsider is probably right.

You can make a case for any of the other six here, it's that competitive, but I'd suggest the 9/2 Twilight Madness to beat the 5/1 Level Up.

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