Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 1.20 Bellewstown
- 2.25 Hereford
- 2.30 Bellewstown
- 4.45 Hereford
- 7.15 Clonmel
Unfortunately for me, that list is 60% Irish, leaving me with just the two Hereford races to consider and neither of those float my boat, as one's a maiden hurdle and the other a novice handicap, so I'll pass on both of those and I'll be back tomorrow!
Only joking, of course. As a man far more talented than I, once said "The Show Must Go On!" and with that in mind, I'm going to find another race to look at. I am, of course, self-impeded by my reluctance to play the Irish game and I don't really do the Flat in April, whilst the 'best' UK races on Thursday are at Class 4. So, a non-Flat, non-novice/maiden, non-Irish, Class 4 race is where we'll head and that takes us to the 6.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...
None of these won last time out, but Athmad was second attempting to complete a hat-trick, whilst Dubai Jeanius was also a runner-up after winning all five starts this year. Francesi and Kaaranah have been runing consistently well without quite winning.
Intervention is noted as a fast finisher here and Kingmania makes a debut for James Ferguson after leaving Chris Wall's yard. She now wears a hood for the first time, as does Kaaranah, who like Candy Warhol and Vaccine, is stepping up a class here, whilst My Silent Song is down two classes.
Our sole class dropper might, however, need the run after a break of 169 days, but he's not the only one who might be a bit race-rusty as Francesi, The Mouse King, Kingmania and Kaaranah have all been tucked away for five months or more, whereas the remaining seven have all raced in the last 7 to 37 days.
Chief's Will and Athmad are previous course and distance winners, whilst Dubai Jeanius is 4 from 4 over 1m3f/1m4f here. Intervention has won here over 6f and 7f with The Mouse King a Southwell winner at 7f on his only previous visit four starts ago (August '22). Elsewhere Francesi, Plastic Paddy, My Silent Song and Kaaranah have all won at a similar trip to this one.
Feature of the day, Instant Expert, can verify those course/distance stats and also tell us that seven of this field share twenty-three previous A/W wins on standard going, but only two of them have won at Class 4. We also see that all seven A/W winners are running off higher marks than their last win, carrying 3lbs to 8lbs more here...
The in-form pair of Dubai Jeanius and Athmad are the two that initially catch my eye from a positive point of view, whilst my concerns are starting to build about Plastic Paddy (class) and Intervention (going/class), whilst Chief's Will hasn't set the world alight at going/distance either. It's going to be hard for me to suggest any of that trio might win this from those stats, but the place stats might suggest they could make the frame?
Again Dubai Jeanius looks strong, but Athmad's numbers haven't really improved much, suggesting he's a win or bust type, perhaps. Plastic Paddy's line looks better, but still worse than most, whilst Candy Warhol looks like he'd be better off elsewhere, although his Flat record is just as uninspiring.
The draw here at Southwell on the Tapeta suggests that those drawn highest might have a bit of extra work to do to get round and win...
...which would put Kingmania, Candy Warhol and My Silent Song in a bit of trouble, but much would depend on how they approached the race from widest out. If they run like they have in their last few outings, I'd expect Candy Warhol to set off pretty quickly with Kingmania likely to settle in at the back of the pack with the in-form Dubai Jeanius...
Chief's Will looks like being our pacesetter with a clump of five or six tracking him and if we go back to those 40-odd races above that we drew the draw data from, we're informed that anything bar a hold-up position is OK here...
...which isn't the best news for Plastic Paddy, Athmad, Dubai Jeanius or Kingmania, which presents me with a dilemma.
Summary
I think Dubai Jeanius is the best horse in the race, but having to pass most of the field later in the contest has proven difficult here at Southwell and that throws a spanner in the works for me. He's 11/2 joint second fav and that's not long enough for an E/W bet and I'm unsure he can get round the field, so I'll have to look elsewhere.
Next on my list is Athmad, who'd be a good pick for a place normally, but he's drawn high enough (almost too high in #9) and is another hold-up type and like the runner above, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me.
Francesi, however, was in solid form prior to a five month break, is drawn low and will race prominently. His place stats at going/class/distance put him right in the mix and at 6/1, he's probably the one I'd back to win and if I wanted a pair of small speculative E/W punts, then I'd be looking at the likes of Chief's Will & Intervention at 11's and 14's respectively, especially if you can get four places, as they're still going to have to compete with Dubai Jeanius and Athmad for the places.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
