Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 1.30 Salisbury
- 2.25 York
- 4.35 Perth
- 6.20 Newmarket
- 6.55 Newmarket
And clearly the best of those is on the Knavesmire, so let's focus upon the 2.25 York, an 8-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 2 flat contest over a left-handed 1m2.3f on good ground...
As you'd expect from a race of this magnitude, the field have won plenty of races between them and both Aristia and Free Wind won last time out, the latter coming here looking for a fourth win on the bounce with only Rogue Millennium winless in five.
Sea Silk Road has been flagged as a fast finisher and there's no new headgear or equipment on show. Rogue Millennium last raced just 18 days ago, but all of her rivals are running for the first time in at least 215 days with Free Wind not having been seen for almost 11 months since winning the Lancashire Oaks. That was also off a lengthy break, meaning that this will be only her second run in over 600 days!
Toskana Belle has won three of her six starts in Europe prior to this UK debut, but her wins were over 8f, 9f and 11f, making her the only one without a win at 1m2f, whilst the two course winners, Aristia and State Occasion have both triumphed over course and distance in July 2021 and August 2022 respectively, the former in a Listed race.
All bar Aristia & Toskana Belle will carry 9st 2lbs here, making Free Wind some 6lbs to 12lbs 'well-in' on her rivals based on OR/handicap marks and with the Gosden/Dettori partnership behind her, she couldn't be in better hands as she seeks a hat-trick of Group 2 wins.
Instant Expert doesn't carry overseas form, so it doesn't show that Toskana Belle is 3 from 3 on good ground and has 2 wins & 2 further places at Class 1. She hasn't tackled this track or trip yet, but here's how her rivals stack up...
The huge swathes of green were to be expected, but let's have a quick look at those with less than ideal scores by bringing up the place stats...
Poptronic's best form has been on the Tapeta tracks at Newcastle & Wolverhampton, whilst Rogue MIllennium's two career wins (from seven starts) have been on quicker ground than this and as for State Occasion's record at Class 1, she was 4th of 10 in as Listed race at Dundalk last September and 8th of 13 in a Newmarket Group 3 a fortnight later and hasn't been seen since. She finished 211 in a trio of Class 2 races prior to those defeats and that's probably her level.
Our 100% placers Free Wind and Sea Silk Road are drawn in stalls 6 and 3 respectively here and the last five renewals of this race have been won by horses coming out of the first two stalls, but more generally here at York over this going/trip, there's not a huge draw bias...
...although there is a suggestion that stalls 7 & 8 might be the place to be, which would be good for the likes of Toskana Belle and Rogue Millennium if the race was run to suit them, of course. Those races aboive also don't have a huge pace bias either, but leaders have come out worse than any other running style...
...which might not be the best news for the likes of Aristia and Free Wind, as this group's last four outings suggest that this pair might be the ones having to set the tempo in what might be a falsely run race...
That said, the pace/draw heat map gives pretty much most running style/draw combos a chance of success, so it might just boil down to a class of the cream rising to the top.
Summary
Sometimes we have little pace, draw or heat map bias to work with and in those cases, I tend to revert to recent form via the formline on the card and also historical data via Instant Expert and having done so, I'm not surprised that Free Wind is the early 11/8 favourite. She's clearly the one to beat here and the question really is whether you think 11/8 offers any value at all. Personally, I thought she might have been 6/4 or 7/4 early doors, but I wouldn't be surprised to her price shorten. Make of that what you will.
LTO winner Aristia has won over track and trip before and I'd expect her and possibly Sea Silk Road to be the ones chasing the fav home, but you'd probably guess that from the fact they're next best in the market at 5/1 and 11/2. In fairness, the top 3 in the market do sometimes finish 1-2-3 and I'd not be hugely surprised if that happened here, but if you were looking for something a bit longer at an E/W price, you can get 8's about the French filly, Toskana Belle.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
