Racing Insights, Thursday 19/10/23
Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 3.35 Carlisle
- 3.55 Brighton
- 4.20 Wincanton
- 4.45 Carlisle
- 5.10 Thurles
...and the highest rated of the four UK races is the 3.35 Carlisle, 12-runners, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m½f on good ground...
Wasdell Dundalk is the only runner in the field to have won last time out and he comes here on the back of three straight wins over a similar trip to this one (all at Perth). Guetapan Collonges, The Kniphand and Ned tanner have all also won at least two of their last five outings, whilst only Morning Spirit is without a win in five.
Only Silver in Disguise and Ned Tanner ran at Class 3 last time around as Morning Spirit, The Kniphand, Dallas des Pictons and in-form Wasdell Dundalk all drop down a class, whilst joint top weights Gueatpan Collonges and Mexico both drop two classes, as does Your Own Story. Conversely Giovanni Change, East Street and bottom weight Court Dreaming are all up one class.
Most of the field are running after four to seven months off the track, but Wasdell Dundalk, Dallas des Pictons and Giovanni Change have been seen more recently at 22, 29 and 71 days respectively.
All bar Mexico, Giovanni Change and Ned tanner have won over a similar trip, whilst Morning Spirit and Court Dreaming have both won over course and distance. Your Own Story has also won here at Carlisle in the past, landing a 3m1½f Novice Hurdle in March '22.
Other relative/collateral form is shown here in Instant Expert...
...where the in-form and class-dropping Wasdell Dundalk catches the eye, especially as only he and Guetapan Collonges have won at Class 2. He is, of course, up 6lbs for his most recent win, but he did win by 14 lengths without exerting himself and the runner-up has made the frame at Class 2 again since. The place stats from those races above look like this...
...with honourable mentions going to Your Own Story and Ned Tanner amongst others. Wasdell Dundalk's last three runs/wins have come from racing further down the field and if this group race as they have done in their last few outings, then I suspect that the early pace would come from Giovanni Change and Dallas des Pictons...
...and that probably represents their best chance of getting something from the races, as past similar contests here suited front-running types...
Summary
His recent pace profile suggests he might struggle here, but everything else points to Wasdell Dundalk for me. He's in-form, down in class, hasn't been massively punished for a cosy win three weeks ago, won't need the run to clear his pipes and was the standout on Instant Expert. 1 in 16 hold-up horses win here at Carlisle, he might just be that one and at an early price of 7/1, he'd be the one for me. In fact that's almost E/W odds territory and with most firms paying four places, you could well play it safe.
As for an E/W bet for four places, I'd want a double-digit odds runner and that currently only gives me five runners to go at, but of the five longest-priced runners, the 10/1 Ned Tanner would be the one I think could make the frame.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24
- Tix Picks, Saturday 07/12/24
- Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24
- Tix Picks, Thursday 05/12/24
- Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
