Racing Insights, Thursday 25/05/23
Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 3.50 Wolverhampton
- 5.20 Chelmsford
- 7.30 Limerick
- 7.42 Sandown
- 8.52 Chelmsford
The Sandown race is the only UK flat race on that list and it's also by far the highest rated. Sadly it is a small field and the bookies already think that it's a two-horse race at best including a pretty short favourite, but they're not always right, are they? I'm not saying that I won't end up agreeing with them, but if one of the two market leaders falter, then there's the chance of a decent-priced E/W placer in the 7.42 Sandown, a six-runner, Group 3, 4yo+ Flat contest over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...
CASH has only raced four times to date and was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance in the Gr3 Classic trial 13 months ago. Came back from a five month break three weeks ago to run second in an Ascot Listed race, three quarters of a length behind Chindit, who was then second in last weekend's Gr1 Lockinge.
CHICHESTER won a Class 2 race at Newcastle back in January and has been a runner-up in two races since. He looks a useful performer at that level, but this is big step up in quality, although he has won over this trip.
CLAYMORE had a good 21/22 campaign, winning at Class 4 on debut and then was a runner-up and a winner at Group 3 in April/June of last year, before only managing to finish 4th of 5 in the group 2 York Stakes ten months ago. He hasn't raced since then and may well need the run. His win in Ascot's Hampton Court Stakes was over today's trip, though.
DESERT CROWN comes here having won all three career starts. He landed a Class 4 maiden at Nottingham on his only run as a 2yr old, before landing the Gr2 Dante and the Epsom Derby last season. I don't personally think last year's Derby has worked out well for subsequent winners, but if this one is ready to go first up after virtually a year off, then he's likely to be the one to catch.
HUKUM was also last seen landing a Group 1 prize at Epsom back in June 2022, as he came home almost 4.5 lengths clear in the Coronation Cup. He's a fabulous horse who has won 8 of his last 12 starts, but has had a serious leg injury and might well find 1m2f a bit sharp here, with most of his best form coming at 1m4f to 1m6f
SOLID STONE won back to back Group 3 contests in August/September 2021 before a 230-day break. He came off that break to win first time out in the Gr2 Huxley Stakes at Chester just over a year ago, but failed to kick on in three races since and may well need a run after another break. This trainer/jockey combo won this race last season, but stablemate Desert Crown must be the yard number 1 here, even if Solid Stone is the only former course winner on display.
Feature of the day is Instant Expert and it adds the following those details above...
Whilst that doesn't necessarily provide us with a winner, it does give me added confidence when I say that this shouldn't be Chichester's day. He has only won 2 of 19 on turf and both were on quicker ground than this, he probably wants a shorter trip too. Cash also has a fair swathe of red, but off just 1 or 2 races, I'll not write him off just yet.
With a small field over a non-sprint trip, I wouldn't expect any real draw bias here and whilst the stats might initially look like high draws have the best of it, the raw data tells another story in my eyes...
We're looking at six runners, so I'd take the data for stalls 6 & 7 as one entity with a win ratio of 17.39% and a place return of 30.43%, which would suggest that there's not a great deal of difference is the stats for stalls 1, 3, 4 and 6. In such cases, we have to treat the figures for stalls 2 and 5 to be anomalous, as there's no plausible reason for it being down to the draw. The race could however, hinge on how the race unfolds and based on the field's most recent outings...
...I'd say that Claymore is our likely leader with Solid Stone and Hukum the ones to chase him early. All eyes will be on Desert Crown, who will probably let that trio have a scrap early doors before attempting to put the race to bed later on. Cash and Chichester look like being waited with and the last two winners of this race both came from a hold-up position.
Summary
It's hard to see Desert Crown not winning here, based on his short career so far. The only potential problem is the fact that he hasn't raced for some considerable time. That said three of his rivals are also coming off a break. My pockets aren't deep enough, however to back him at best-price 4/7 to make it worth my while, so no win bet for me.
Of the rest, I think Hukum is the best horse, but I'm not keen on him here after a lengthy absence whilst quite seriously injured. The trip is probably too short for him and I think that 7/2 is far too skinny. I hope I'm wrong and that he goes well, because I do like him, but can't take him at those odds.
I've already ruled Chichester out, Solid Stone disappointed in his last three unplaced runs, so it's the front-running Claymore or hold-up type Cash from here. Claymore might well do too much up front in the early could end up feeling the effects of a ten-month break, but Cash has raced recently, is in good form and will be held-up like the last two winners. He's also likely to get towed into the race by Desert Crown, so I'm going Cash at 8/1 E/W plus the forecast with Desert Crown.
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