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Stat of the Day, 6th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

7.00 Epsom : Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, not clear run 2f out, switched outside and headway under pressure over 1f out, soon ridden, ran on inside final furlong, led near finish to win by half a length)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Euginio @ 11/4 BOG

In a 6-runner (was originally 8), Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £22684 to the winner...

Why?

Handily drawn in stall 2, this 4yr old colt has progressed nicely this season and come here off the back of an excellent run in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot lees than three weeks ago. Sent off as a virtual no-hoper at 33/1, he not only defied those odds, but also a 14 of 16 draw to get to a point where only a Dettori-driven Monarchs Glen (rated 7lbs higher but only conceding 5) beat him and there was only a length in it at the post.

Not much form to glean from that race yet, in fairness, although the horse coming home last of the 16 (11 lengths behind our boy), Yucatan, did reappear at The Curragh last Sunday to win a Group 3 contest over today's 1m2f trip on similarly Good to Firm ground.

As for Euginio's own form, he has won here before over course and distance on good to firm ground, he has 2 wins and a place from 4 races in fields of 7 or fewer runners and has 2 wins, 1 place from 3 June/July outings, so he probably has optimum conditions here.

No disrespect intended to regular rider Andrea Atzeni, but I'm happy to see Silvestre de Sousa booked for this one today, as SdS is in excellent touch right now. Of his 16 rides so far this month, 13 top-3 finishes (81.25%) have included no less than 7 winners (43.75%), including managing to get a 16/1 outsider into the winners' enclosure after the last at Newbury last night!

Silvestre rides this track well, winning 16 of his 65 rides here since the start of the 2016 season and those punters taking advantage of that 24.6% strike rate will have benefited from profits of 17.4pts or 26.8% of total stakes invested. Amongst those 65 rides...

  • he is 15/49 (30.6%) for 24pts (+49%) over trips of 7 to 14 furlongs
  • he is 14/33 (42.4%) for 27.6pts (+83.6%) on horses sent off at odds of 5/4 to 11/2
  • and when riding horses at those odds over 7-14 furlongs, he has won 14 of 25 (56%) for profits of 35.6pts (+142.4%)

He also gets on well with horses trained by Richard Hannon, winning 13 times from 37 (35.1% SR) since the start of 2106, with the 32.5pts profit equating to an 87.8% return on stakes. Closer inspection of the 13 winners (as I'm not too interested in the 24 losers!), shows that...

  • 12 of them came from 22 (54.6%) horses turned back out within 3 weeks of their last run, generating profits of 46.3pts (+210.6%)
  • 12 came from 23 (52.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter for 29.8pts (+129.6%) profit
  • 11 came from 27 (40.7%) in fields of 6-11 runners at a return of 39pts (+144.6%)
  • 11 came from 31 (35.5%) Flat runners giving 26pts (+84%)
  • 9 came from the 14 (64.3%) who finished in the first three home last time out. Backing these gave 33.5pts (+239.4%) profit
  • 7 came from 22 (31.8%) non-handicap contests for 20.5pts (+93.3%)
  • and 4 came from just 8 (50%) runs this year, producing 11.07pts at an ROI of 138.3%

Before I wrap this one up, it's worth noting that...de Sousa + Hannon + 8/1 and shorter + 11 or fewer runners + no more than three weeks rest = 11/13 (84.6% SR) for 38.7pts (+297.4% ROI) profit!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Euginio @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Sandown

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £378.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.2% units went through – 5/2* - 20/1 – 16/1

Race 2: 32.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 25/1 – 7/2*

Race 3: 17.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 10/3 (5/4)

Race 4: 64.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 4/1 – 33/1

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 13/2 7/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* - 8/1 – 11/2

 

  • Speculative subscribers might have hoped for a bigger dividend last year, given that the ‘Pot was worth £291.88 after five legs. Unfortunately for those that opposed the even money favourite (Bristol Missile) in the Placepot finale, the market leader accounted for 61.9% of the remaining units which in Placepot terms meant that the jolly was an 8/13 chance to finish in the frame - before going on to score.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 4 (Mokaatil), 1 (Sound Of Silence) & 3 (Koditime)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Shamshon), 3 (Rio Ronaldo) & 11 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Chiefofchiefs), 1 (Silver Line) & 6 (Graphite Storm)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Flavius Titus) & 6 (Zalshah)

Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ibraz), 1 (Deyaarna) & 9 (Simply Breathless)

Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Marechal Ney) & 5 (Jamih)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum in recent times however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/1 during the last thirteen years.  Nine of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure.  The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour MOKAATIL and SOUND AND SILENCE, whilst the chance of KODITIME is also respected. There are bits and pieces of support for Rock On Baileys at the time of around at around 14/1 which makes for interesting reading

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via thirteen renewals, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.

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Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Haddaf (good)

1/3—Spoof (good)

 

2.35: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster.  The trio that should give us a decent shout for our respective monies are SHAMSHON, RIO RONALDO and ISLAND OF LIFE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, including two successful market leaders which were both returned at 5/2.

Record of the five course winners in the second event:

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (good to firm)

1/4—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/3—Desert Ace (good to soft)

1/1—Jashma (good)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eighteen available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the six winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders SILVER LINE and GRAPHITE STORM are not discounted from each way and Placepot perspective, though it is five-year-old CHIEFOFCHIEFS which might upset the vintage trends on this occasion.  As a self-confessed stats anorak, I can’t dismiss the fact that James Doyle is only having his third ride for trainer Charlie Fellowes (50% strike rate thus far), whilst Charlie won with his only other runner at the Esher circuit this season.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on Placepot positions, before the subsequent trio of favourites evened up the score by winning their respective events.

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/4—Manson (good to firm)

1/1—Chiefofchiefs (good)

1/4—Almoreb (good to soft)

 

3.50: Seven of the last twelve winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which bring FLAVIUS TITUS strongly into the equation.  Roger Varian’s colt looks something of a Placepot banker, whilst there are couple of ‘mistakes’ in the trade press this morning that need reporting, especially with a £2.90 price tag relating to the printed word!  The lads/lasses in the office have ‘priced up’ ZALSHAH at 16/1 which looks well wide of the mark, whilst the reporter on the race offered the following words to round up their comment by literally finishing a sentence about one of the contenders “he was earlier promising”!  Now I can’t talk about ‘typos’ by other people without the term stones/glasshouses being thrown in my direction, but this is printed matter for goodness sake; at £2.90 a copy!  My subscription page today will carry umpteen thousands of words/numerals but I’m hoping not to have many errors thrown in like that one!

Favourite factor: Twelve of the thirteen favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming only five Placepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 two years ago before a 20/1 chance reared its ugly head twelve months later.  Twenty of the 37 horses (54%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card: 

1/1—Rum Runner (good to soft)

 

4.25: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. The weight stats dilute interest in SIMPLY BREATHLESS to a fashion, though I still cannot bring myself to discard Clive Cox’s raider from a Placepot perspective.  There are no ‘trend worries’ (apart from favourite issues reported below) relating to IBRAZ and DEYAARNA fortunately.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last eighteen years, whilst just eight of the twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race: 

1/3—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

5.00: There was money overnight for MARECHAL NEY and the 11/4 on offer by three firms at the time of writing might not last too long this morning regarding John Gosden’s Frankel colt.  Indeed, connections of Robert Havlin’s mount might have most to fear from stable companion JAMIH.  I cannot entertain the possibility of both inmates finishing out of the frame.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 15

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £4.90 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 5 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.4% units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 – 5/4*

Race 2: 68.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 8/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 78.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 3/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 57.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 33/1 – 10/1

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/4** - 6/4** - 16/1

Race 6: 68.8% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 3/1** - 3/1**

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Oberyn Martell) & 3 (Good Luck Fox)

Leg 2 (2.35): 12 (Sky Cross), 6 (Glorious Dane) & 5 (Eagle Hunter)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Brigand), 1 (Character Witness) & 4 (Warssan)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Acclimatise) & 6 (Turnpike Trip)

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Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Preening), 8 (Autumn Leaves) & 3 (Affina)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Beringer) & 9 (Hyanna)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Firelight in easy to back at around the 16/1 mark this morning but it will interesting to keep an eye on Andrew Balding’s raider, especially as the trainer has (unusually as I recall) five George Strawbridge juveniles in training this term. More logical winners today include OBERYN MARTELL and GOOD LUCK FOX.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured just one bronze medal between them to date.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston (SKY CROSS) leads Richard Hannon (GLORIOUS DANE & DANCING SPEED) 4/3 via recent renewals and I cannot visualise all three horses finishing out of the frame.  That said, the declarations of EAGLE HUNTER and Roger Varian’s late May foal KENZOHOPE complicates matters. Just to add salt into the potential wound, there is plenty of money coming in for Happy Power as I close out the race.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the 19 year study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

3.10: With four of his last nine runners having won at the time of writing, William Haggas carries on regardless of where his horses run and at what level. William could be greeting another gold medallist on Friday afternoon with BRIGAND in this event.  That said, this is a lively three-year-old handicap and no mistake, with connections of CHARACTER WITNESS and WARSAAN also have solid reasons for fancying their respective chances.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals to date.  Three of the four relevant horses won their respective events at 13/8, 7/4 and 7/2**.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have secured 20 of the last 37 available Placepot positions in this event, as well as winning six of the twelve contests for good measure (stats include a 12/1 chance).  Four-year-olds are 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is taken into consideration, with ACCLIMATISE and TURNPIKE TRIP at the head of the overnight list.  I could have really fancied Henry Candy’s latter named raider but for the fast ground, given that his two wins last year were both gained under good to soft conditions.  Given his 11/1 quote in three places at the time of writing, I’m willing to take the gamble, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (exact science), statistics which include five (11/4, 2/1, 11/8, 5/4 & Evens) winners.

 

4.20: AFFINA is attracting money at double figure prices as I drift towards the end of the Placepot card and there is every chance that Simon Crisford’s raider can reach the frame.  From a win perspective however, PREENING and AUTUMN LEAVES will command more attention from the Sandown faithful I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include three (3/1, 6/4** & 5/4) winners.

 

4.50: Eleven of the twelve winners have carried a minimum of 9-1 (nine of the last ten were burdened with 9-3 or more) whereby BERINGER and HYANNA form my permutation in the Placepot finale.  If there is a flat trainer in the land who has improved her ratios better than Eve Johnson Houghton in recent months I would be surprised and her new inmate Hyanna might push the projected favourite Beringer all the way to the line.  For the record, the reserve nomination is awarded to Returning Glory.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won 6/12 of the contests to date, whist ten of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 7th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

201: £53.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.8% units went through – 8/1 & 1/2*

Race 2: 27.1% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 -16/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

Race 5: 87.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/4* - 6/1

Race 6: 54.3% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 11/4 – 16/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 3 (Heartwarming) & 9 (Satisfying)

Leg 2 (6.25): 7 (Manor Park), 2 (Sharja Silk) & 1 (Ghostwatch)

Leg 3 (7.00): 6 (George Villiers) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (7.35): 7 (Jack Regan), 3 (Infastructure) & 2 (Corgi)

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Leg 5 (8.05): 1 (Cross Counter) & 4 (Al Muffrih)

Leg 6 (8.40): 11 (Railport Dolly), 13 (Chantresse) & 5 (Fondest)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.55: To commence, I should point out that there are no course winners at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought I had forgotten to include the service today!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that it’s worth noting that HEARTWARMING was withdrawn from a race at Nottingham at the back end of last month on account of the soft ground, despite having been backed on the exchanges prior to being taken out of the contest.  Clive Cox looks sure to go ahead with his Showcasing filly here as she has no other entries at the time of writing, notwithstanding tonight’s ground which should just about be perfect for racing on the level.  SATISFYING is the only rival to be standing up against the projected favourite on the exchanges, with just threepenny and sixpenny bits around for ZAPLA.  That said, that is more than is being spent on Sir Michael Stoute’s Dubawi filly Vivionn who will surely need a distance of ground before beginning to show the best of her potential.  Against that however, we should observe that the dam (Giant’s Play) was only beaten ‘three parts’ at the first time of asking on Kempton’s all weather surface.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/3 favourite was beaten when securing a Placepot position, flanked by horses which were returned at 8/1 and 5/1.

 

6.25: A ‘dual purpose’ trainer (Anthony Honeyball) won the first running of this event twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Alan King to follow suit, with Alan proving so successful with three-year-old stayers in the making these last few years.  Alan saddles MANOR PARK here with his progressive Medicean gelding now stepping up two and a half furlong in trip, whereby nothing can be taken as read prior to flag fall.  Alan has proved himself to be a good judge at this level however and Martin Harley’s mount should be the one in the field to bustle up Charlie Appleby’s projected market leader GHOSTWATCH.  Not the only horse to have endured traffic problems at Chester last time out, GHOSTWATCH has been made favourite on three of his four assignments to date, only scoring on one occasion thus far.  The other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly is SHARJA SILK who was doing all his best work at the finish over twelve furlongs at Ascot the last day.  The additional quarter of a mile should certainly suit Roger Varian’s Dubawi colt.

Favourite factor: Last year’s biggest favourite casualty on the Placepot front occurred when the 6/5 jolly failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame in this event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

7.00: Although there is some each way support for BAMBASTIC coming in as light begins to appear in the sky over Bristol this morning, this race should chiefly concern GEORGE VILLIERS and MASHAHEER in a contest which is likely to produce several future winners (well worth recording).  The main pair are marginally listed in order of preference, though the market has already spoken up in favour of the latter named William Haggas representative.  That said, there was plenty of like about the win of GEORGE VILLIERS back in November at Kempton when shrugging off as many as seven rivals who all had chances in the last furlong.  ‘George’ led a long way from home and despite looking vulnerable when racing well wide of the far rail after the ‘cut away’, the Dubawi gelding showed great determination with the jockey not having to go for everything close home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished nearer last than first (ninth of eleven contenders) when over 76% of the remaining Placepot units in leg three went up in smoke.

 

7.35: I tend to find that I have better luck with Amanda Perrett’s runners at each way prices whereby I am overlooking the chance of Desert Path in favour of JACK REGAN, INFASTRUCTURE and CORGI in a typically fascinating Sandown event.  There is no surprise that this race has already lost its original ‘dead eight’ stats as Sandown hosts more six/seven runners races (under both codes) than any other track in the land, or so my experience tells me, invariably leading to great Placepot puzzles on the majority of occasions.

Favourite factor: Over half of the live units made it through to the penultimate leg twelve months ago, despite the (9/4) market leader finishing out with the washing.  The fact that the second and third favourites filled another ‘short field frame’ helped the majority of ‘Potters’ out twelve months ago.

 

8.05: Another classic encounter of the Sandown kind, albeit I am playing on words to a fashion with CROSS COUNTER making plenty of appeal given the ‘8.6’ quote on the exchanges overnight.  What has to be taken into account however, is that Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old is asked to give seven pounds to AL MUFFRIH whereby the top weight will only be backed by yours truly from a win and a Placepot perspective.  10-1 is a heavy burden for one so young, which is why I will probably pass up the each way option as I cannot believe that William Buick will be hard on the Teofilo gelding if his chance of winning the race has gone.  I can’t help myself putting Charlie’s raider in the mix though, alongside the Sea The Stars foal AL MUFFRIH.  Elwazir also has plenty of scope for improvement holding definite Placepot claims.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

8.40: Only three-year-olds can be seriously taken into account in these mixed vintage handicaps at this time of year, especially in the case of a ‘fillies’ only event.  CHANTRESSE is a northern challenger to consider here (see favourite stats below) given that the somewhat unusual nine furlong trip could play to her strengths.  RAILPORT DOLLY is another in the field that could benefit for this type of distance, whilst the Placepot chance for FONDEST is there for all to see, albeit the slightly cramped 9/4-5/2 odds on offer at the time of writing dilute confidence in backing the James Fanshawe raider, albeit the trainer has been back among the winners of late after a lean period.  Just one winner in May via 35 runners should emphasize my point.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (northern trained) 9/4 favourite duly obliged for the Mark Johnston team and plenty of Mark’s followers.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 24th May

SANDOWN – MAY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £773.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.9% units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 15/2 (9/2)

Race 2: 47.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 7/4*

Race 3: 72.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* & 7/1

Race 4: 17.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 14.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 11/2 (5/6)

Race 6: 24.5% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 6/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (What A Welcome), 3 (Garbanzo) & 1 (Psychotic)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Kinks), 9 (Wedding Date) & 5 (Conchek)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Without Parole) & 5 (Regal Reality)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (Weekender), 6 (Mount Moriah) & 1 (Magic Circle)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Poet’s Word) & 4 (Larraib)

Leg 6 (8.40): 8 (Kynren), 7 (Mountain Angel) & 5 (Kynren)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

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6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 18 of the 31 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last nine winners (16/1-10/1-7/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are eight representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be WHAT A WELCOME and GARBANZO who was attracting a fair amount of support when offered in double figures in the dead of night, most of which from an each way perspective I’ll wager. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, PSYCHOTIC could prove to an interesting contender, offered at 20/1 in a place this morning.

Favourite factor: The eleven favourites thus far have snared five gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race: 

1/4—Tobacco Road (soft)

1/5—Zambeasy (good)

 

6.35: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last eleven renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason why the team was not represented last year, though WEDDING DATE has been declared this time around.  Both Michael Bell (ARTAIR) and Mick Channon (KINKS) were sweet on their juveniles during stable tours earlier in the year and they have both proved their respective trainers right by scoring already.  Indeed, KINKS is having his fourth race coming here on a hat trick having been withdrawn from the ‘Lily Agnes’ at Chester the other week.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby KONCHEK is included into the equation in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Five of the last twenty favourites have won whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last twelve winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin), given Michael's ten successes down the years.  These stats bode well for stable representatives GABR and REGAL REALITY who have both posted wins win moisture in the ground, should that scenario ensue this evening with plenty of rain heading Sandown’s way according to the latest radar readings. That all said, WITHOUT PAROLE should take the beating if John Gosden’s Frankel colt can reproduce anything like the form of his two assignments thus far, which were both won by six lengths margins.  Vintager looks best of the rest, especially if the forecast rain arrives on cue.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty one years. Fourteen of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Heron Stakes: 

1/1—Petrus (good to firm)

 

7.35: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 33 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  John Gosden looks set for a good evening having declared his four-year-old Frankel colt WEEKENDER, though fellow vintage representative MOUNT MARIAH offers a threat I’ll wager, whilst money has been pouring on the Chester Cup winner MAGIC CIRCLE overnight.  David Simcock’s grand old servant Sheikhzayedroad will offer his consistent form likely as not, whilst Time To Study would have won a lesser renewal in the past but this test looks harsh enough from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include five winners.

 

8.10: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 17 of the last 21 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 14 victories during the extended study period, which includes twelve of the last sixteen contests.  LARRAIB is the lone four-year-old in the field (wake up trainers), though connections would not have been pleased (when searching out weather forecasts) to see rain on the horizon.  Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last four renewals in which the stable was represented and in POET’S WORD, the trainer has a leading chance of improving the ratio still further.  Although having secured a 2/2 record on fast ground to date, Michael’s five-year-old representative boasts a gold and a silver medal from just two assignments under good to soft conditions, whereby the Poet’s Voice raider seems to have all eventualities covered.  Fabricate looks sure to offer up his consistent form but this looks a warm heat and then some.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 25 gold medals (including nine of the last sixteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion could prove to be FASTER (especially if the rain arrives), MOUNTAIN ANGEL and KYNREN in a fascinating Placepot finale.  Connections of all three horses will be buoyed by the prospect of rain, whilst CHIEFOFCHIEFS is offered up as the reserve nomination. As ever was the case, this is a fabulous card and at last, viewers with just terrestrial television to call on can now watch the spectacle unfold.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale: 

3/5—Chevalier (2 x good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—First Selection (good)

1/1—Fastar (good)

1/3—Frank Bridge (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 28th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*

Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)

Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up.  It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day.  Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event.  Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George.  One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.

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Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/1—Top Notch (soft)

1/2—O O Seven (soft)

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared.  It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far.  Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.

Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:

2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)

2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)

1/4—Special Tiara (good)

 

3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER.  The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:

1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/4—Benbens (good to soft)

1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)

3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016

 

4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years.  WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)

2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

4.40:  Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/3—Silverhow (soft)

 

Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:

1/1--  Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year

1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)

1/2—Landin (good)

1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 27th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £114.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.2% units went through – 6/4* - 12/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 67.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 9/2 – 11/4*

Race 3: 16.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 12/1 (5/6)

Race 4: 31.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2** - 10/1 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 5: 83.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 8/1

Race 6: 35.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 12/1 – 16/1

 

Firday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Kings Shield), 4 (Dream Warrior) & 6 (Motown Mick)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Morando) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sevenna Star) & 4 (Ispoloni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Addeybb), 2 (Here Comes When) & 3 (Khafoo Shememi

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Leg 5 (4.05): 8 (Diamond Dougal), 4 (Haddaf) & 2 (Spoof)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Highgarden) & 7 (Must Be Magic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: 'Team Hannon' have landed this prize twice in the last twelve years, one of only two represented stables to have won the contest on two occasions during the study period.  Richard saddles MOTOWN MICK who boasts win and place claims though this looks to be a tough heat, with KINGS SHIELD and DREAM WARRIOR having been declared by the powerful John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables respectively.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Fifteen of the last twenty winners were returned at 17/2 or less.

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have won fourteen of the last sixteen renewals of this Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes with the ‘juniors’ leading 8-6 during the period, though five-year-olds were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago.  With rain on the radar, it would not surprise me to see What About Carlo outrunning his 9/1 quote in places this morning, though CRYSTAL OCEAN and MORANDO make more appeal from a win perspective.  Fabricate is one of those horses that I cannot get right so in passing up Michael Bell’s raider today, you might start forming an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to ‘get on’!

Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at just 8/1.  That said, only eight of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.00: This Group 3 Classic Trial invariably produces an intriguing contest and this year's renewal is no exception. I referred to the stables of John Gosden and Charlie Appleby as ‘powerful’ in the opening race which goes without saying, though especially at this moment in time when their aggregate recent ratio stands at 42/96 (44% strike rate), figures which have produced level stake profits of 60 points in recent weeks!  Their respective raiders SEVENNA STAR and ISPOLINI cannot be opposed from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Just four favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.  Fourteen gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 1/2 and 11/2.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen contests, with ADDEYBB and KHAFOO SHEMENI representing the vintage this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference at the time of writing but with relentless rain falling here in the west-country this morning (seemingly on its way through to Sandown later today), HERE COMES WHEN cannot be left out of calculations.  Loyal readers will recall that I napped Andrew Balding’s Danehill Dancer gelding is last year’s Sussex Stakes when scoring at 20/1 and there is every indication that Jim Crowley’s mount can go close again today having won at the first time of asking twelve months ago.  That said, ADDEYBB turned the Lincoln Handicap into a procession on soft ground a few weeks ago which only adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have scored during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/22 market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period.  Seventeen of the last twenty gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

4.05: Twelve of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 9-2 or less though that is of no help now that the top weight has been withdrawn from the contest.  What should have been a fairly simple ‘dead eight’ race to assess now takes on a whole new meaning whereby I am offering three horses against the field, namely DIAMOND DOUGAL, HADDAF and SPOOF.  James Tate’s winners are invariable well fancied and money for HADDAF would ensure that the Dawn Approach gelding would be the call if a gun was pointed to my head to name the winner.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

4.35:  The lads and lasses in the trade press office must have been ‘on the wallop’ when chalking up HIGHGARDEN as a potential 7/2 chance in this event yesterday.  I have made the point on numerous occasions that as an Odds Compiler myself, pricing up certain races is a difficult task but John Gosden’s Nathaniel filly was so impressive on soft ground at Newbury on her only start last year, that 6/4 would have been as far as I would have dared to ‘promote’ going into the contest.  MUST BE MAGIC is the logical danger, albeit after just one half decent effort thus far.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, with ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 8/1 during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 10 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £317.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Shambra), 3 (Royal Zanzibar) & 5 (Erik Le Rouge)

Leg 2 (1.50): 7 (Al Shahir), 8 (The Dubai Way) & 9 (Notre Ami)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Whatswrongwithyou), 13 (Friday Night Light) & 8 (Highway One O One)

Leg 4 (3.00): 2 (Posh Trish) & 7 (Queens Cave)

Leg 5 (3.35): 4 (Tanit River) & 2 (Pete The Feat)

Leg 6 (4.10): 4 (The Last But One), 3 (Silverhow) & 1 (Rayvin Black)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: There is some realistic positive money emerging for ERIK LE ROUGE on the exchanges at the time of writing, whilst it’s worth noting that Nick Williams (for once in his life) has declared more runners on the card than any other trainer.  I’ll wager that Nick will gain a winner somewhere down the line but whether it is in the first event remains to be seen.  Certainly on the form book, the likes of SHAMBRA and recent soft ground winner ROYAL ZANZIBAR should be there or thereabouts turning for home.

Favourite factor: Three one of the five favourites to date (winners at 5/2 & Evens included) have secured Placepot positions to date.

 

1.50: Six-year-olds have won fourteen contests during the last twenty years (including ten of the last fourteen) and with eight of the eighteen declarations hailing from the vintage, six-year-olds are 5/4 mark to land the spoils before form is taken into consideration.  I’m opting for AL SHAHIR and THE DUBAI WAY this time around. Nick Gifford holds a leading chance in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival on Wednesday and there will be worse outsiders on todays’ card than heavy ground course winner NOTRE AMI I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the study period, whilst five of the other eighteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in second event:

1/1—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: I’m duty bound to report that twelve of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less (as have 39 of the last 55 win and placed horses) which eliminates most of the field this time around.  The top two horses in the market have both won with plenty of moisture in the ground, whereby WHATSWRONGWITHYOU and FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT have to be respected.  That said, six-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests and with Chris Gordon having held two entries on the card for HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, I am duty bound to stand by the trainer who landed one of my finest days in memory when scoring with all five runners on the Monday before Cheltenham last year, something I had ‘offered’ to my followers before the trainer pulled of his nigh 1,000/1 accumulator!  HIGHWAY ONE O ONE has not raced on ground this deep but there was plenty to like about his soft ground Boxing Day win the last day.  Charis has secured one gold and five silver medals via his last seven runners for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged during the last eighteen years, though just three of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Imperial Cup:

2/2—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

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3.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the fourteen contests and the pick of this year’s seven relevant raiders will hopefully prove to be POSH TRISH and QUEENS CAVE.  The ‘dark horse’ in the field however is undoubtedly URCA DE LIMA and I truly wish that I had enough room for Anthony Honeyball’s raider to be included in my permutation.  What I suggest (above) and what I ultimately do however, is another matter entirely!  I am aware (as always I hope) of different budgets affecting each one us, especially with Cheltenham around the corner.

Favourite factor: Four of the fourteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, whilst we had to wait until 2012 for the first (and only) successful (2/1) market leader to emerge.

 

3.35:  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more and that figure will probably be increased this year with six of the seven runners ‘qualifying’ via the weight trend.  Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby TANIT RIVER is the first name on the team sheet, especially having won on his only start at Sandown over the distance on soft ground.  PETE THE FEAT was a little disappointing at Exeter the last day but having won 4/14 on heavy ground and loving every inch of this Esher circuit, I think it’s worth giving the old boy another chance in this grade/company.  Last year’s winner Shanroe Sands will find the ground much softer on this occasion I fancy.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last twenty years, whilst 13/23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/7—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Tanit River (soft)

 

4.10: A ‘win only’ Placepot finale which temps fate with yours truly including three of the four runners from a Placepot viewpont.  Listed in order of preference, the trio is named as THE LAST BUT ONE, SILVERHOW and RAYVIN BLACK.  Readers are asked to organise ‘British queues’ outside bookmaker outlets this morning as they strive to get on the horse I have left out of the equation, namely Diamant Bleu!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/2—Silverhow (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more on the Sandown card on Saturday:

5 runners—Nick Williams

3—Nicky Henderson

3—Charlie Longsdon

3—Oliver Sherwood

3—Colin Tizzard

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Lucy Wadham

+ 46 different trainers who saddled two or less….

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £349.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Hereford: £29.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £200.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £119.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2018

Friday's Runner was...

3.25 Ayr : Charmant @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 Tracked leader, challenged 3 out, every chance 2 out, no extra from last.

And now we turn to Saturday's...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m juvenile handicap hurdle (4yo) on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?

Just four runs to date for this four year old, but he was placed at Class 2 and won at Class 4, before being fairly well beaten in two Gr 2 contests, but there's no disgrace in that and he now takes a considerable drop back in class today for his handicap debut.

His trainer Gary Moore is 25 from 170 (14.7% SR) for 111.8pts (+65.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • males at 23/155 (14.8%) for 118.1pts (+76.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4f : 23/108 (21.3%) for 154.2pts (+142.8%)
  • over hurdles : 12/80 (15%) for 96.4pts (+120.5pts)
  • ridden by Jamie Moore : 15/65 (23.1%) for 35.9pts (+55.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/52 (17.3%) for 60.8pts (+116.9%)
  • on Soft ground : 7/48 (14.6%) for 34.1pts (+71%)
  • in Juvenile races : 5/19 (26.3%) for 45pts (+236.9%)
  • in March : 4/19 (21.1%) for 31.1pts (+163.9%)
  • and those ridden by Jamie Moore in juvenile races are 4/12 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+169.7%)

Furthermore, Gary's NH handicap debutants are 8 from 55 (14.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+64.1% ROI) since the start of 2014 .

And finally for today, 3-5 yr old hurdlers sired by Racinger are 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 2.02pts (+20.9% ROI) when sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter over trips of 2m/2m0.5f.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Brianstorm) & 1 (Ar Mest)

Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Kastani Beach), 2 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Ratify)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Westend Story) & 3 (Soul Emotion)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Winter Lion), 1 (More Buck’s) & 4 (Baden)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Darebin) & 2 (Big Jim)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lip Service), 7 (Lex Talionis) & 4 (Jet Set)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Thanks for your patience yesterday and you were rewarded with a slight profit via the Placepot permutation, if you followed my permutation.  Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last thirteen winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented for the second successive season.  We are still left with two interesting horses to consider, with BRIANSTORM marginally preferred to AR MEST in what should amount to a ‘match’ a long way from home.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals.  The thirteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

 

2.30: I have a feeling that somebody in the office at William Hill is going to have their knuckles rapped this morning because win, lose or draw, 8/1 should not have been the price chalked up about KASTANI BEACH given his record in the race. Attracting potential ‘bet to nothing’ each way investments is invariably the wrong fork in the road to take, especially when the horse in question has finished in the frame in each of the last five renewals of a particular contest!  That is the record of KASTANI BEACH in this event and given that he won the race on one occasion (whilst the yard has won with two of their last five runners), you might expect there will be a red face hiding behind a newspaper this morning, whatever transpires.  Dangers include NO HIDING PLACE and RATIFY.  The ground has come right for Briac who might just save the blushes of the said individual though as a former Odds Complier myself I am all too aware that is not the point whatsoever, whereby the dreaded call into the Head Teacher’s study is inevitable!  Unlike in my day of course, corporal punishment is no longer politically (or lawfully) correct!

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 19 renewals.  Fourteen of the twenty one jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Briac (heavy)

1/5—Kastani Beach (good to soft)

 

3.05: WESTEND STORY would not have been entertained a week or three ago when Philip Hobbs was still trying to rediscover winning form but with the yard (hopefully) having turned the tide and his liking for soft/heavy ground in place, Philip’s Wetherby winner can take this event en route to better things.  SOUL EMOTION is likely to offer some sort of challenge if completing the course, something that Nicky Henderson’s new import has failed to so on his last two assignments. Perhaps a recent wind operation will bring about better timber topping on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

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3.40: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling seven losers in the interim period.  Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal three ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field.  Paul has decalred MORE BUCK’S this time around, though it is a little surprising that the Presenting representative is failing to attract any money early doors this morning.  I guess that last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE is the main reason for horses on the slide, though merits of others such as BADEN and WINTER LION should be considered in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last fifteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/2—More Buck’s (good)

3/3—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/5—Arbeo (heavy)

 

4.10: On all known form, TARA BRIDGE should complete a hat trick here with just two rivals to beat.  Chris Gordon has his team in fine form as is usually the case at this time of the year, though the ground could be quite bad by the time that this event is contested.  For that reason,  the other runners are also included in the Placepot mix in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Only five of the seventeen favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Tara Bridge (soft)

1/5—Darebin (soft)

 

4.45: LIP SERVICE, LEX TALIONIS and JET SET will hopefully land the dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  This trio will offer better value for money that Three Star General likely as not.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race ion the Sandown programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

3 runners—Fergal O’Brien (1/3 +5) – 8/20 +30

3—David Pipe (1/2 +1) – 7/53 – loss of 23 points

2—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 3) – 1/20 – loss of 11

2—Nicky Henderson (6/16 – loss of 3) – 37/135 +13

2—Philip Hobbs (2/8 +3) – 16/78 +8

2—Charlie Mann (0/3) – 2/28 – loss of 2

2—Gary Moore (1/22 – loss of 16) – 22/113 +71

2—Neil Mulholland (0/6) – 5/25 +6

2—Seamus Mullins (1/4 +4) – 3/25 +4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

44 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £86.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Leicester: £27.20 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £375.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 16th February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,261.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 2 (Chieftan’s Choice), 4 (Balibour) & 9 (Mr Fickle)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Movie Legend), 3 (Tara Bridge) & 2 (Ubaltique)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Midnight Tune), 4 (Melangerie) & 1 (All Currencies)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Orbasa) & 6 (Midnight Monty)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Et Moi Alors) & 3 (Notre Ami)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Aubusson), 6 (Muckle Roe) & 2 (Bally Longford)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: It appears that Gary Moore is becoming increasingly frustrated with his poor Sandown form of late, having declared seven runners on the card.  Following his amazing season a couple of years ago when recording a ratio of 10/25 at the track, Gary has subsequently managed just three winners via 48 runners and I have a sneaking suspicion that MR FICKLE will outrun his 18/1 odds (at the time of writing) this afternoon.  That said, more logical winners include last year’s gold medallist CHIEFTAN’S CHOICE and possibly BALIBOUR.  This is a slightly speculative trio with which to go to war but with some half decent Placepot permutations having been landed of late, I’m up for the fight!

Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out with the washing before last year’s 3/1 market leader (Chieftan’s Choice) obliged.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Chieftan’s choice (soft)

1/3—Mr Fickle (soft)

 

1.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 whereby Un Beau Roman is eliminated from my inquiries at the first hurdle.  The other three runners cannot (safely) be left out of the (win only) Placepot mix but for the record, the trio is listed in order of preference as MOVIE LEGEND, TARA BRIDGE and UBALTIQUE.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have passed since the last favourite prevailed, albeit the top priced winner was returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Just three of the eight favourites secured Placepot positions in those six years.

 

2.25: It’s not often that you find Nicky Henderson sending just one runner to a top track like Sandown but that is the scenario in place here, with the champion trainer having declared his hat trick seeker MELANGERIE.  Gary Moore saddles ALL CURRENCIES with a Placepot chance at the very least, whilst my trio against the field in completed by MIDNIGHT TUNE for Antony Honeyball who is enjoying a season to remember.  Yes, Anthony’s Midnight Legend mare disappointed the last day but stock from this sire bounce back more often than not and Aidan Coleman’s mount is fully expected to be in the thick of things when the whips are raised at the business end of the contest.

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Favourite factor: The four market leaders thus far have claimed three gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests and I could envisage MIDNIGHT MONTY going close to extending that good run, though ORBASA and last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE will certainly make Jamie Snowden’s representative pull out all the stops if the Midnight Legend gelding scores.  Paul Nicholls has hired the services of the most experienced rider (Jody Sole) in the field for ORBASA, who attempts to become Paul’s fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years.  RATHLIN ROSE boasts a chance for all to see though at the odds on offer at the time of writing, I marginally prefer the other pair to David Pipe’s projected market leader.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six favourites (all winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame, as have eight market leaders during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/2—Rathlin Rose (soft)

 

3.30: For all that ET MOI ALORS was running a fine (debut) race at Ascot on soft ground recently before capitulating at the final flight, I cannot (for the life of me) envisage hefty investors piling into the 3/10 odds of offer, especially if you take a glance at the favourite stats below!  Yes, Gary Moore should be back on the winners list at Sandown but at the odds on offer when compiling this column, it comes as no surprise to witness a little overnight support for NOTRE AMI.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 3/1.  That said, last year’s 1/7 market leader was turned over despite completing the course on behalf of trainer Nicky Henderson.

 

4.05: The ten winners during the last eleven years have carried eleven stones or more, though only dual course winner Vino Griego ‘fails to make the cut’ on this occasion.  AUBUSSON, MUCKLE ROE and BALLY LONGFORD all boast each way claims on the best on their form and are entered into the Placepot permutation.  Step Back offers similar claims but not at 5/2 from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mosspark (soft)

2/7—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) at the track this season and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Gary Moore (1/19 – loss of 10 points) – 22/107 +77

3—Emma Lavelle (1/3 – loss of 1) – 4/27 – loss of 4

3—Lucy Wadham (0/3) – 6/28 +9

2—Colin Tizzard (1/13 – loss of 9) – 5/50 – loss of 40

2—Kevin Frost (First runners at Sandown this season) – 1/2 +2

2—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 3/19 +4

2—Chris Gordon (0/3) – 1/27 – loss of 1

2—Paul Nicholls (3/23 – loss of 8) – 27/179 – loss of 20

2—Jamie Snowden ((First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/11

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/10 +8) – 7/52 +19

2—Venetia Williams (1/5 – loss of 1) – 9/95 – loss of 53

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

55 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: £4,824.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 3rd February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £146.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Countister) & 2 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Cepage)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Buveur D’Air)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Cyrname), 5 (Terrefort), 2 (Kalondra) & 4 (West Approach)

Leg 5 (3.00): 9 (Melrose Boy), 15 (Dashing Perk), 4 (Topofthegame) & 14 (King Of Fashion)

Leg 6 (3.35): 11 (Shanroe Santos). 8 (Holly Bush Henry), 1 (Yala Enki) & 9 (Wicked Willy)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson will want to seek compensation for the defeat of Rather Be in this event twelve months ago.  Nicky has declared his Doncaster winner COUNTISTER who won on soft ground in France on two occasions before crossing the English Channel.  Colin Tizzard’s Flemensfirth gelding AINCHEA looks the obvious danger in a race which could provide a few clues for better races in the spring.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Nicky Henderson trained) 4/5 market leader was beaten by the 7/4 second favourite (Alan King) when claiming a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ainchea (good to soft)

 

1.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, whilst eight of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 11-5.  As was the case twelve months ago, seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence again this time around.  Kerry Lee is well represented in a race which she won last year, with GINO TRAIL preferred to TOM GAMBLE on this occasion.  GINO TRAIL failed to find another gear to cope with Speredek over course and distance the last day, though there was no disgrace in finishing second to that useful performer under heavy conditions.  CEPAGE could split Kerry’s pair here, with the Venetia William’s raider lurking in the ‘superior’ sector of the weight according to the trends.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via eleven renewals during which time, six market leaders having finished in the frame.

 

1.50: Nicky Henderson (saddles last year’s winner BUVEUR D’AIR) has won four of the last six renewals of this event when represented and the champion hurdler should have no problem winning his thirteenth race on his sixteenth assignment.  Bookmakers will be betting on the distance – my guess for the record: 12 lengths.  John Constable will fill the runner up berth at a respectable distance accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six of the last nine favourites have won, whilst eight market leaders during the last 13 years have secured totplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the field in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buveur D’Air

 

2.25: Seven-year-old’s (not represented last year) have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Scilly Isles’ novice event, as have seven of the last 14 gold medallists.  KALONDRA is much preferred to No Comment of the pair of seven-year-olds though Noel Fehily’s mount might have to give way close home to the likes of CYRNAME and TERREFORT whose respective trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson go head to head again in a feature contest.  WEST APPROACH is not entirely dismissed at the time of writing, fearful that a non runner might raise its ugly head before flag fall, creating a ‘win only’ contest which would put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.
Favourite factor: The last 19 winners all scored at odds of 10/1 or less, with ten winning favourites having been recorded in the process. 17 of the 19 winners scored at a maximum price of 9/2, whilst 12 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Eight of the last eleven market leaders have obliged.

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3.00: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, whilst Paul Nicholls (TOPOFTHEGAME) has saddled three of the last eight winners.  Paul’s six-year-old has to be included in the Placepot equation from my viewpoint, albeit he might represent poor value for money from a win perspective given that he is taking on the weight trends. That said, MELROSE BOY is also carrying plenty of pounds and ounces, though Harry Fry has a habit of annoying the handicapper with his improving young horses.  Each way alternative options from lower down the handicap include DASHING PERK and KING OF FASHION.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4) winners.

Record of course winners in the field in the fifth event:

1/1—Golan Fortune (good to soft)

1/1—Buywise (heavy)

 

3.30: 13 of the last 16 winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-4, whilst Lucy Wadham (has won with the last two runners she has saddled in the contest) has declared SHANROE SHANROE.  Lucy’s course and distance winner is included in my Placepot mix alongside YALA ENKI, HOLLY BUSH HENRY and WICKED WILLY.  The latter named raider is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies whose last twenty horses have been beaten which is something of a worry, whilst YALA ENKI is a horse I have (seemingly) failed to call right every time the Venetia Williams trained raider has run.  That said, Venetia has won two of the last four renewals of this event whereby we live in hope.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten market leaders have won (first favourites to oblige since 1998), whilst eight of the market leaders during the study period have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the field in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Bishops Road (heavy)

2/10—Loose Chips (good)

1/1—Holly Bush Henry (good to soft)

1/2—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/6—Vino Griego (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 winners—Nicky Henderson(3/10 – loss of 2 points) – 34/129 +13

5—Kerry Lee (0/2) – 3/14 +1

5—Paul Nicholls (2/18 – loss of 10) – 26/174 loss of 22

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3.46 – loss of 36

4—Evan Williams (1/5 +8) – 1/34 – loss of 21)

3—Phil Middleton (0/3) – 4/9 +17

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 2/22 – slight loss

3—Gary Moore (1/13 – loss of 7) – 22/104 +79

2—David Dennis (First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/9 +17) – 5/54 +8

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/6) – 2/51 – loss of 43

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/8 +10) – 7/50 - +21

2—Venetia Williams (1/3 – slight profit) – 9/93 – loss of 51

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £459.00 (6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Wetherby: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £296.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: Essentially this is a new meeting

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

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2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 7 (Whatswrongwithyou), 3 (Just A Sting) & 1 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (12.40): 3 (Ellens Way), 7 (The Wicket Chicken) & 1 (Whauduhavtoget)

Leg 3 (1.10): 6 (Connetable), 8 (Monbeg Oscar) & 1 (Beat That)

Leg 4 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 4 (North Hill Harvey)

Leg 5 (2.20): 6 (Jenkins), 10 (Exitas) & 8 (Fidux)

Leg 6 (2.55): 3 (Fox Norton) & 5 (Politologue)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Novice hurdle races produce the best record in the sport for winning favourites, and this opening event is a great example given the results during the last 18 years (see below).   Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the last eleven renewals between them, whilst Nicky Henderson has secured seven of the last eight renewals, whereby the 14/1 starting price of the winner three years ago defied belief!  I know that trends are there to be shot at and if it were the perfect science, I would not have to work every day for a living.  That said, I'll take 14/1 winners any day of the week, especially given that Nicky's second (more fancied) runner finished second at 3/1, creating a 53/1 forecast.  Don't always believe that I am in the minority for harping on about trainer trends, as the tote forecast (Exacta) paid less than twenty pounds, whereby many Tote punters homed in on Nicky's great record in the race.  Nicky would have had any number of options for this opening event whereby the declaration of WHATSWRONGWITHYOU jumps off the page.  If the four and five-year-olds are to dominate again however, the chances of the four-year-old representatives JUST A STING (Harry Fry saddled the winner last year) and AINCHEA are there to be seen via the form book.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a great record in this event, having won 12 of the last 18 renewals, with 15 of the successful horses having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.  16/18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, investors from a win perspective should note that favourites have been beaten at 4/6, 8/11 and 4/5 within the last 15 years.

 

12.40: Handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip offer the worst record for favourites under either code of the ‘sport of kings’ year in and year out.  Those were words I opened with two years ago and you can see the result for yourself in the 'favourite factor' section below.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include the trio of winners at 14/1, 5/1 & 7/2.  Four of the five representatives this year seemingly hold chances of extending the trend, the pick of which will hopefully prover to be ELLENS WAY, THE WICKET CHICKEN and WHATDUHAVTOGET.
Favourite factor: The inaugural contest set up a great Placepot dividend (£1,939.70), with the frame being filled by horses returned at 14/1-25/1-8/1.  Only one of the joint 9/2 market leaders finished in the frame (without winning) the following year, though the 7/2 market leader prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Loves Destination (heavy)

 

1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six winners on this corresponding card during the last five years whereby the chance of CONNETABLE is respected, especially as Paul’s winners scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-13/2-5/1.  Paul has secured three of the last nine renewals where his five-year-old gelding could be the value for money call, especially as vintage representatives have won three of the last six contests.  The vintage stat also brings MONBEG OSCAR into the equation, with the highly rated five pound claimer Mitchell Bastyan in the saddle.  Jonjo O’Neill will be slightly embarrassed by his 2/50 strike rate at Sandown during the last five years I’ll wager, whereby his only runner on the card (Terry The Fish) is swerved by yours truly, preferring BEAT THAT who represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled no less than 11 winners (yes eleven) at this corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last five years!
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), stats which include three winning favourites.  Seven of the last nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Connetable (soft)

1.45: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this prestigious ‘Henry VIII’ Novice Chase event with the trainer represented by five-year-old Capitaine on this occasion. Vintage representatives have won five of the last seven contests whereby once again, Paul has shown his appreciation for statistics which have not let him down so far in his career!  That said, this looks a tough (and intriguing) renewal, with BRAIN POWER, FINIAN’S OSCAR and NORTH HILL HARVEY all boasting obvious claim for one reason or another.  There is a nagging notion that this event might just run the feet off Finian’s Oscar, whereby I will opt for the other pair, without totally discarding the chance of the fifth runner in the field (Sceau Royal) in any shape of form.  A typically wonderful Sandown event which demonstrates perfectly why this racecourse runs Cheltenham so close to being my favourite NH venue.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 7/2 or less (14/1, 13/2 and 5/1 winners in three of the last four years spoil the trend to a fashion), statistics which includes seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

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1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (soft)

2.20: 13 of the last 18 contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 10-13 or less, whilst four-year-olds have claimed six of the last sixteen renewals.  FIDUX is the only runner in the field with ticks in both boxes (thanks to a jockey claim), though Alan King has been struggling for gold medallists of late (recent stats of 1/32) whereby JENKINS is preferred in terms of naming the actual winner.  Nicky Henderson looks to have laid out his five-year-old Azamour gelding for this contest and with the trainer having saddled four of the last seven winners, JENKINS is my each way nap on the card.  A winner of three of his six races to date (2/4 over timber), JENKINS looks to have plenty going for him and the 7/1 quotes by Betfair and Paddy Power make for attractive reading.  I do not anticipate that price being available by the time that the phones start ringing in their respective offices later this morning.  Connections might have most to fear from EXITAS if taking Alan King’s recent negative winning record into account.  Crossed My Mind is the ‘unknown factor’ in the field but I would rather stick closer to home given the potential of Jenkins, especially as Nicky won this with a particularly progressive type in Brain Power twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten in this Listed hurdle event, though 13 of the last 16 winners have been returned in single figures.  Eight of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/1—Exitas (soft)

2.55: Three of the last five winners of this event have gone on to win the 'Queen Mother' at Cheltenham in the same season, whilst last year’s Gold Medallist was aimed at the ‘Ryanair’ at the festival and Un De Sceaux duly obliged.  Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 17 winners of the ’Tingle Creek’ (including seven of the last 12) and the stable is represented by POLITOLOGUE on this occasion, though it would a big surprise if FOX NORTON failed to become the fourth seven-year-old to win this event in what would be the last nine years.  Colin Tizzard’s raider put on a masterclass at Cheltenham the last day despite looking as though the run would put him 100% right and whatever scope Paul’s horse has for improvement, it’s unlikely to upset favourite backers here, albeit I expect POLIOLOGUE to account for the other five entries, the best of which should prove to be CHARBEL is you want to have a speculative each way punt to small stakes.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this ‘Tingle Creek’ event, whilst the last 17 winners all scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Our Mad (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their five year totals of winners at this corresponding ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting:

7—Paul Nicholls (6 winners)

5—Nicky Henderson (11)

4—Alan King (2)

3—Harry Fry (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Dan Skelton

3—Colin Tizzard

2—Kim Bailey

2—Chris Gordon

2—Phil Middleton (1)

2—Jeremy Scott

2—Evan Williams

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £637.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chepstow: £91.80 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Wetherby: £57.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverh’ton: £236.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,787.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Shanroe Santos), 2 (Pickamix) & 12 (Lunar Flow)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Jukebox Jive), 5 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Touch Kick) & 5 (Darebin)

Leg 4 (2.30): 2 (On The Blind Side) & 8 (White Moon)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bally Gilbert), 3 (Workbench) & 7 (Gregarious)

Leg 6 (3.35): 12 (Cap Du Nord), 5 (Rainy Day Dylan) & 9 (Le Capriceux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Nine of the thirteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum weight of 11-4, statistics which include three (10/1, 7/1 & 3/1) of the five gold medallists.  Taking all the jockey claims into account, seven of the thirteen declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trend.  SHANROE SANTOS catches the eye for at least two reasons having won under these projected (good to soft) conditions here at Sandown already, representing Lucy Wadham whose Sandown record (see stats at the foot of the column) is worth noting in no uncertain terms.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick which also brings PICKAMIX into the equation.  If I had to pick out one horse which sits below the ‘superior’ weight barrier on this occasion, the vote would have to go to LUNAR FLOW whose trainer Jamie Snowden has bagged three winners via his last eight runners.  Out of interest, there was support for Jamie’s six-year-old gelding overnight which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (3/1 & 7/4) winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Pete The Feat (soft)

1/1—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/2—Jennys Surprise (2 x soft)

 

1.25: There have been a few short priced casualties in this event down the years (including an 8/15 chance two years ago) whereby interpretation of potential investors steaming into fancied runners too heavily should be issued with a health warning, though including such runners in Placepot permutations is okay with yours truly, as was (successfully) the case twelve months ago. Anthony Honeyball was in the middle of a ‘purple patch’ when nearly everything he touched turned to gold when JUKEBOX JUVE won on debut at Fontwell on this type of ground.  The yard subsequently (inevitably) went through a quieter patch though it’s worth noting that Anthony scored with both of his entries yesterday.  That said, part time NH trainer Andrew Balding has won with four of the thirteen runners he has saddled in the last five years at this venue, whereby the chance of his newcomer NIGHT OF GLORY is thoroughly respected.  Any further interest for TOMMY HALLINON on the exchanges (there has been some investment already) would add interest and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

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1.55: 12 of the 15 winners to date have carried weights of 11-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests via less than 20% of the total number of runners in those races. No five-year-olds were declared last year and with DAREBIN being the only representative on show today, trainers need to wake up and smell the coffee as far as this contest in concerned.  Like Toomy Hallinan in the previous race, I can report early support/activity for a Paul Nicholls runner on the card, given that the 6/1 trade press quote about TOUCH KICK was never really in evidence and in the odd place that early birds might have had some pickings, the price did not last for long.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have snared gold thus far, whilst 11 of the 19 jollies have reached the frame.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/4—Darebin (soft)

 

2.30: Some really good horses have won this race down the years including Inglis Drever, What’s Up Boys and the ill-fated Rouble to name but three fine thoroughbreds, notwithstanding Fingal Bay six years ago.  Last year’s winner went on to lift the Challow Hurdle next time out at Newbury before securing place positions in Grade 1 events at the Cheltenham & Aintree festivals earlier this year. Five-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, with ON THE BLIND SIDE (Nicky Henderson’s only raider on the card) and WHITE MOON (one of just two runners for Colin Tizzard at Sandown today) hailing from the vintage on this occasion with definite claims.  Alan King has saddled four of the last eight winners though the popular trainer is not represented today.  I have left the stat in place, knowing that some readers keep these records for future use.
Favourite factor: All 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

3.05: If the ground becomes soft by the time that this event is reached, don’t be too surprised if there is some money forthcoming for dual course winner GREGARIOUS at around the 20/1 mark, especially given the Lucy Wadham Sandown stats which I referred to earlier.  Apologies for that last phrase which sounded like a ‘House of Commons’ remark my learned friends!  Upwards and onward by admitting that more logical winners at the time of writing include BALLY GILBERT and WORKBENCH though if you prefer the latter named Dan Skelton raider, you might care to take a look at his negative Sandown stats below before wading in too heavily.  BALLY GILBERT has already been the subject of plenty of overnight support and hailing from Ben Pauling’s yard, it’s not difficult to see why.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far without tinning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Gregarious (2 x soft)

3.35: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with RAINY DAY DYLAN and LE CARICIEAX among their number this time around, the trend could be enhanced today.  You have to admire the patience of a trainer like Christian Williams.  Christian has only saddled five winners to date, whereby it would have come as no surprise for the trainer to have tried to capitalize on his best success to date when scoring with Limited Reserve at Haydock a fortnight ago.  The fact that he has waited until today to send out his next runner is admirable from my viewpoint and I wish him and the team all the luck in the world for the future, starting with CAP DU NORD in this contest.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/1 or less, whilst four clear and one joint favourite have obliged for supporters of the market leaders.  11 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal stats (in brackets)  and five year ratios at Sandown + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Gary Moore (0/4) – 21/95 +83

4—Paul Nicholls (0/6) – 24/162 – loss of 18 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/4) – 1/37 – loss of 30 points

2—Philip Hobbs (0/2) – 14/72 +3

2—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 4/48 – loss of 11 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3) – 2/48 – loss of 40 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) – 0/15

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 2/38 – loss of 32 points

2—Lucy Wadham (First runners this season) – 6/25 +12

2—Christian Williams (0/1) – No previous runners

2—Nick Williams (First runners this season) – 3/24 – loss of 5 points

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: Meeting abandoned

Sedgefield: £54.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.29 – 7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced