Thursday's Pick was...
7.00 Epsom : Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, not clear run 2f out, switched outside and headway under pressure over 1f out, soon ridden, ran on inside final furlong, led near finish to win by half a length)
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Euginio @ 11/4 BOG
In a 6-runner (was originally 8), Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £22684 to the winner...
Handily drawn in stall 2, this 4yr old colt has progressed nicely this season and come here off the back of an excellent run in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot lees than three weeks ago. Sent off as a virtual no-hoper at 33/1, he not only defied those odds, but also a 14 of 16 draw to get to a point where only a Dettori-driven Monarchs Glen (rated 7lbs higher but only conceding 5) beat him and there was only a length in it at the post.
Not much form to glean from that race yet, in fairness, although the horse coming home last of the 16 (11 lengths behind our boy), Yucatan, did reappear at The Curragh last Sunday to win a Group 3 contest over today's 1m2f trip on similarly Good to Firm ground.
As for Euginio's own form, he has won here before over course and distance on good to firm ground, he has 2 wins and a place from 4 races in fields of 7 or fewer runners and has 2 wins, 1 place from 3 June/July outings, so he probably has optimum conditions here.
No disrespect intended to regular rider Andrea Atzeni, but I'm happy to see Silvestre de Sousa booked for this one today, as SdS is in excellent touch right now. Of his 16 rides so far this month, 13 top-3 finishes (81.25%) have included no less than 7 winners (43.75%), including managing to get a 16/1 outsider into the winners' enclosure after the last at Newbury last night!
Silvestre rides this track well, winning 16 of his 65 rides here since the start of the 2016 season and those punters taking advantage of that 24.6% strike rate will have benefited from profits of 17.4pts or 26.8% of total stakes invested. Amongst those 65 rides...
- he is 15/49 (30.6%) for 24pts (+49%) over trips of 7 to 14 furlongs
- he is 14/33 (42.4%) for 27.6pts (+83.6%) on horses sent off at odds of 5/4 to 11/2
- and when riding horses at those odds over 7-14 furlongs, he has won 14 of 25 (56%) for profits of 35.6pts (+142.4%)
He also gets on well with horses trained by Richard Hannon, winning 13 times from 37 (35.1% SR) since the start of 2106, with the 32.5pts profit equating to an 87.8% return on stakes. Closer inspection of the 13 winners (as I'm not too interested in the 24 losers!), shows that...
- 12 of them came from 22 (54.6%) horses turned back out within 3 weeks of their last run, generating profits of 46.3pts (+210.6%)
- 12 came from 23 (52.2%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter for 29.8pts (+129.6%) profit
- 11 came from 27 (40.7%) in fields of 6-11 runners at a return of 39pts (+144.6%)
- 11 came from 31 (35.5%) Flat runners giving 26pts (+84%)
- 9 came from the 14 (64.3%) who finished in the first three home last time out. Backing these gave 33.5pts (+239.4%) profit
- 7 came from 22 (31.8%) non-handicap contests for 20.5pts (+93.3%)
- and 4 came from just 8 (50%) runs this year, producing 11.07pts at an ROI of 138.3%
Before I wrap this one up, it's worth noting that...de Sousa + Hannon + 8/1 and shorter + 11 or fewer runners + no more than three weeks rest = 11/13 (84.6% SR) for 38.7pts (+297.4% ROI) profit!
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Euginio @ 11/4 BOG, which was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!