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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 28th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*

Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)

Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up.  It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day.  Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event.  Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George.  One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.

Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/1—Top Notch (soft)

1/2—O O Seven (soft)

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared.  It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far.  Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.

Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:

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2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)

2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)

1/4—Special Tiara (good)

 

3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER.  The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:

1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/4—Benbens (good to soft)

1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)

3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016

 

4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years.  WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)

2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

4.40:  Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/3—Silverhow (soft)

 

Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:

1/1--  Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year

1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)

1/2—Landin (good)

1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 27th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £114.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.2% units went through – 6/4* - 12/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 67.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 9/2 – 11/4*

Race 3: 16.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 12/1 (5/6)

Race 4: 31.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2** - 10/1 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 5: 83.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 8/1

Race 6: 35.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 12/1 – 16/1

 

Firday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Kings Shield), 4 (Dream Warrior) & 6 (Motown Mick)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Morando) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sevenna Star) & 4 (Ispoloni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Addeybb), 2 (Here Comes When) & 3 (Khafoo Shememi

Leg 5 (4.05): 8 (Diamond Dougal), 4 (Haddaf) & 2 (Spoof)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Highgarden) & 7 (Must Be Magic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: 'Team Hannon' have landed this prize twice in the last twelve years, one of only two represented stables to have won the contest on two occasions during the study period.  Richard saddles MOTOWN MICK who boasts win and place claims though this looks to be a tough heat, with KINGS SHIELD and DREAM WARRIOR having been declared by the powerful John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables respectively.

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Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Fifteen of the last twenty winners were returned at 17/2 or less.

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have won fourteen of the last sixteen renewals of this Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes with the ‘juniors’ leading 8-6 during the period, though five-year-olds were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago.  With rain on the radar, it would not surprise me to see What About Carlo outrunning his 9/1 quote in places this morning, though CRYSTAL OCEAN and MORANDO make more appeal from a win perspective.  Fabricate is one of those horses that I cannot get right so in passing up Michael Bell’s raider today, you might start forming an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to ‘get on’!

Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at just 8/1.  That said, only eight of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.00: This Group 3 Classic Trial invariably produces an intriguing contest and this year's renewal is no exception. I referred to the stables of John Gosden and Charlie Appleby as ‘powerful’ in the opening race which goes without saying, though especially at this moment in time when their aggregate recent ratio stands at 42/96 (44% strike rate), figures which have produced level stake profits of 60 points in recent weeks!  Their respective raiders SEVENNA STAR and ISPOLINI cannot be opposed from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Just four favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.  Fourteen gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 1/2 and 11/2.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen contests, with ADDEYBB and KHAFOO SHEMENI representing the vintage this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference at the time of writing but with relentless rain falling here in the west-country this morning (seemingly on its way through to Sandown later today), HERE COMES WHEN cannot be left out of calculations.  Loyal readers will recall that I napped Andrew Balding’s Danehill Dancer gelding is last year’s Sussex Stakes when scoring at 20/1 and there is every indication that Jim Crowley’s mount can go close again today having won at the first time of asking twelve months ago.  That said, ADDEYBB turned the Lincoln Handicap into a procession on soft ground a few weeks ago which only adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have scored during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/22 market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period.  Seventeen of the last twenty gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

4.05: Twelve of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 9-2 or less though that is of no help now that the top weight has been withdrawn from the contest.  What should have been a fairly simple ‘dead eight’ race to assess now takes on a whole new meaning whereby I am offering three horses against the field, namely DIAMOND DOUGAL, HADDAF and SPOOF.  James Tate’s winners are invariable well fancied and money for HADDAF would ensure that the Dawn Approach gelding would be the call if a gun was pointed to my head to name the winner.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

4.35:  The lads and lasses in the trade press office must have been ‘on the wallop’ when chalking up HIGHGARDEN as a potential 7/2 chance in this event yesterday.  I have made the point on numerous occasions that as an Odds Compiler myself, pricing up certain races is a difficult task but John Gosden’s Nathaniel filly was so impressive on soft ground at Newbury on her only start last year, that 6/4 would have been as far as I would have dared to ‘promote’ going into the contest.  MUST BE MAGIC is the logical danger, albeit after just one half decent effort thus far.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, with ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 8/1 during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 10th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 10 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £317.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Shambra), 3 (Royal Zanzibar) & 5 (Erik Le Rouge)

Leg 2 (1.50): 7 (Al Shahir), 8 (The Dubai Way) & 9 (Notre Ami)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Whatswrongwithyou), 13 (Friday Night Light) & 8 (Highway One O One)

Leg 4 (3.00): 2 (Posh Trish) & 7 (Queens Cave)

Leg 5 (3.35): 4 (Tanit River) & 2 (Pete The Feat)

Leg 6 (4.10): 4 (The Last But One), 3 (Silverhow) & 1 (Rayvin Black)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: There is some realistic positive money emerging for ERIK LE ROUGE on the exchanges at the time of writing, whilst it’s worth noting that Nick Williams (for once in his life) has declared more runners on the card than any other trainer.  I’ll wager that Nick will gain a winner somewhere down the line but whether it is in the first event remains to be seen.  Certainly on the form book, the likes of SHAMBRA and recent soft ground winner ROYAL ZANZIBAR should be there or thereabouts turning for home.

Favourite factor: Three one of the five favourites to date (winners at 5/2 & Evens included) have secured Placepot positions to date.

 

1.50: Six-year-olds have won fourteen contests during the last twenty years (including ten of the last fourteen) and with eight of the eighteen declarations hailing from the vintage, six-year-olds are 5/4 mark to land the spoils before form is taken into consideration.  I’m opting for AL SHAHIR and THE DUBAI WAY this time around. Nick Gifford holds a leading chance in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival on Wednesday and there will be worse outsiders on todays’ card than heavy ground course winner NOTRE AMI I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the study period, whilst five of the other eighteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in second event:

1/1—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: I’m duty bound to report that twelve of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less (as have 39 of the last 55 win and placed horses) which eliminates most of the field this time around.  The top two horses in the market have both won with plenty of moisture in the ground, whereby WHATSWRONGWITHYOU and FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT have to be respected.  That said, six-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests and with Chris Gordon having held two entries on the card for HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, I am duty bound to stand by the trainer who landed one of my finest days in memory when scoring with all five runners on the Monday before Cheltenham last year, something I had ‘offered’ to my followers before the trainer pulled of his nigh 1,000/1 accumulator!  HIGHWAY ONE O ONE has not raced on ground this deep but there was plenty to like about his soft ground Boxing Day win the last day.  Charis has secured one gold and five silver medals via his last seven runners for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged during the last eighteen years, though just three of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Imperial Cup:

2/2—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the fourteen contests and the pick of this year’s seven relevant raiders will hopefully prove to be POSH TRISH and QUEENS CAVE.  The ‘dark horse’ in the field however is undoubtedly URCA DE LIMA and I truly wish that I had enough room for Anthony Honeyball’s raider to be included in my permutation.  What I suggest (above) and what I ultimately do however, is another matter entirely!  I am aware (as always I hope) of different budgets affecting each one us, especially with Cheltenham around the corner.

Favourite factor: Four of the fourteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, whilst we had to wait until 2012 for the first (and only) successful (2/1) market leader to emerge.

 

3.35:  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more and that figure will probably be increased this year with six of the seven runners ‘qualifying’ via the weight trend.  Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby TANIT RIVER is the first name on the team sheet, especially having won on his only start at Sandown over the distance on soft ground.  PETE THE FEAT was a little disappointing at Exeter the last day but having won 4/14 on heavy ground and loving every inch of this Esher circuit, I think it’s worth giving the old boy another chance in this grade/company.  Last year’s winner Shanroe Sands will find the ground much softer on this occasion I fancy.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last twenty years, whilst 13/23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

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1/3—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/7—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Tanit River (soft)

 

4.10: A ‘win only’ Placepot finale which temps fate with yours truly including three of the four runners from a Placepot viewpont.  Listed in order of preference, the trio is named as THE LAST BUT ONE, SILVERHOW and RAYVIN BLACK.  Readers are asked to organise ‘British queues’ outside bookmaker outlets this morning as they strive to get on the horse I have left out of the equation, namely Diamant Bleu!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/2—Silverhow (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more on the Sandown card on Saturday:

5 runners—Nick Williams

3—Nicky Henderson

3—Charlie Longsdon

3—Oliver Sherwood

3—Colin Tizzard

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Lucy Wadham

+ 46 different trainers who saddled two or less….

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £349.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Hereford: £29.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £200.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £119.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2018

Friday's Runner was...

3.25 Ayr : Charmant @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 Tracked leader, challenged 3 out, every chance 2 out, no extra from last.

And now we turn to Saturday's...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m juvenile handicap hurdle (4yo) on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?

Just four runs to date for this four year old, but he was placed at Class 2 and won at Class 4, before being fairly well beaten in two Gr 2 contests, but there's no disgrace in that and he now takes a considerable drop back in class today for his handicap debut.

His trainer Gary Moore is 25 from 170 (14.7% SR) for 111.8pts (+65.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • males at 23/155 (14.8%) for 118.1pts (+76.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4f : 23/108 (21.3%) for 154.2pts (+142.8%)
  • over hurdles : 12/80 (15%) for 96.4pts (+120.5pts)
  • ridden by Jamie Moore : 15/65 (23.1%) for 35.9pts (+55.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/52 (17.3%) for 60.8pts (+116.9%)
  • on Soft ground : 7/48 (14.6%) for 34.1pts (+71%)
  • in Juvenile races : 5/19 (26.3%) for 45pts (+236.9%)
  • in March : 4/19 (21.1%) for 31.1pts (+163.9%)
  • and those ridden by Jamie Moore in juvenile races are 4/12 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+169.7%)

Furthermore, Gary's NH handicap debutants are 8 from 55 (14.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+64.1% ROI) since the start of 2014 .

And finally for today, 3-5 yr old hurdlers sired by Racinger are 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 2.02pts (+20.9% ROI) when sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter over trips of 2m/2m0.5f.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Eragon de Chanay @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Brianstorm) & 1 (Ar Mest)

Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Kastani Beach), 2 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Ratify)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Westend Story) & 3 (Soul Emotion)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Winter Lion), 1 (More Buck’s) & 4 (Baden)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Darebin) & 2 (Big Jim)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lip Service), 7 (Lex Talionis) & 4 (Jet Set)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Thanks for your patience yesterday and you were rewarded with a slight profit via the Placepot permutation, if you followed my permutation.  Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last thirteen winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented for the second successive season.  We are still left with two interesting horses to consider, with BRIANSTORM marginally preferred to AR MEST in what should amount to a ‘match’ a long way from home.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals.  The thirteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

 

2.30: I have a feeling that somebody in the office at William Hill is going to have their knuckles rapped this morning because win, lose or draw, 8/1 should not have been the price chalked up about KASTANI BEACH given his record in the race. Attracting potential ‘bet to nothing’ each way investments is invariably the wrong fork in the road to take, especially when the horse in question has finished in the frame in each of the last five renewals of a particular contest!  That is the record of KASTANI BEACH in this event and given that he won the race on one occasion (whilst the yard has won with two of their last five runners), you might expect there will be a red face hiding behind a newspaper this morning, whatever transpires.  Dangers include NO HIDING PLACE and RATIFY.  The ground has come right for Briac who might just save the blushes of the said individual though as a former Odds Complier myself I am all too aware that is not the point whatsoever, whereby the dreaded call into the Head Teacher’s study is inevitable!  Unlike in my day of course, corporal punishment is no longer politically (or lawfully) correct!

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 19 renewals.  Fourteen of the twenty one jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Briac (heavy)

1/5—Kastani Beach (good to soft)

 

3.05: WESTEND STORY would not have been entertained a week or three ago when Philip Hobbs was still trying to rediscover winning form but with the yard (hopefully) having turned the tide and his liking for soft/heavy ground in place, Philip’s Wetherby winner can take this event en route to better things.  SOUL EMOTION is likely to offer some sort of challenge if completing the course, something that Nicky Henderson’s new import has failed to so on his last two assignments. Perhaps a recent wind operation will bring about better timber topping on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

3.40: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling seven losers in the interim period.  Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal three ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field.  Paul has decalred MORE BUCK’S this time around, though it is a little surprising that the Presenting representative is failing to attract any money early doors this morning.  I guess that last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE is the main reason for horses on the slide, though merits of others such as BADEN and WINTER LION should be considered in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last fifteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/2—More Buck’s (good)

3/3—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

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1/5—Arbeo (heavy)

 

4.10: On all known form, TARA BRIDGE should complete a hat trick here with just two rivals to beat.  Chris Gordon has his team in fine form as is usually the case at this time of the year, though the ground could be quite bad by the time that this event is contested.  For that reason,  the other runners are also included in the Placepot mix in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Only five of the seventeen favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Tara Bridge (soft)

1/5—Darebin (soft)

 

4.45: LIP SERVICE, LEX TALIONIS and JET SET will hopefully land the dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  This trio will offer better value for money that Three Star General likely as not.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race ion the Sandown programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

3 runners—Fergal O’Brien (1/3 +5) – 8/20 +30

3—David Pipe (1/2 +1) – 7/53 – loss of 23 points

2—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 3) – 1/20 – loss of 11

2—Nicky Henderson (6/16 – loss of 3) – 37/135 +13

2—Philip Hobbs (2/8 +3) – 16/78 +8

2—Charlie Mann (0/3) – 2/28 – loss of 2

2—Gary Moore (1/22 – loss of 16) – 22/113 +71

2—Neil Mulholland (0/6) – 5/25 +6

2—Seamus Mullins (1/4 +4) – 3/25 +4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

44 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £86.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Leicester: £27.20 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £375.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 16th February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,261.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 2 (Chieftan’s Choice), 4 (Balibour) & 9 (Mr Fickle)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Movie Legend), 3 (Tara Bridge) & 2 (Ubaltique)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Midnight Tune), 4 (Melangerie) & 1 (All Currencies)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Orbasa) & 6 (Midnight Monty)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Et Moi Alors) & 3 (Notre Ami)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Aubusson), 6 (Muckle Roe) & 2 (Bally Longford)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: It appears that Gary Moore is becoming increasingly frustrated with his poor Sandown form of late, having declared seven runners on the card.  Following his amazing season a couple of years ago when recording a ratio of 10/25 at the track, Gary has subsequently managed just three winners via 48 runners and I have a sneaking suspicion that MR FICKLE will outrun his 18/1 odds (at the time of writing) this afternoon.  That said, more logical winners include last year’s gold medallist CHIEFTAN’S CHOICE and possibly BALIBOUR.  This is a slightly speculative trio with which to go to war but with some half decent Placepot permutations having been landed of late, I’m up for the fight!

Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out with the washing before last year’s 3/1 market leader (Chieftan’s Choice) obliged.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Chieftan’s choice (soft)

1/3—Mr Fickle (soft)

 

1.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 whereby Un Beau Roman is eliminated from my inquiries at the first hurdle.  The other three runners cannot (safely) be left out of the (win only) Placepot mix but for the record, the trio is listed in order of preference as MOVIE LEGEND, TARA BRIDGE and UBALTIQUE.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have passed since the last favourite prevailed, albeit the top priced winner was returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Just three of the eight favourites secured Placepot positions in those six years.

 

2.25: It’s not often that you find Nicky Henderson sending just one runner to a top track like Sandown but that is the scenario in place here, with the champion trainer having declared his hat trick seeker MELANGERIE.  Gary Moore saddles ALL CURRENCIES with a Placepot chance at the very least, whilst my trio against the field in completed by MIDNIGHT TUNE for Antony Honeyball who is enjoying a season to remember.  Yes, Anthony’s Midnight Legend mare disappointed the last day but stock from this sire bounce back more often than not and Aidan Coleman’s mount is fully expected to be in the thick of things when the whips are raised at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders thus far have claimed three gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests and I could envisage MIDNIGHT MONTY going close to extending that good run, though ORBASA and last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE will certainly make Jamie Snowden’s representative pull out all the stops if the Midnight Legend gelding scores.  Paul Nicholls has hired the services of the most experienced rider (Jody Sole) in the field for ORBASA, who attempts to become Paul’s fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years.  RATHLIN ROSE boasts a chance for all to see though at the odds on offer at the time of writing, I marginally prefer the other pair to David Pipe’s projected market leader.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six favourites (all winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame, as have eight market leaders during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/2—Rathlin Rose (soft)

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3.30: For all that ET MOI ALORS was running a fine (debut) race at Ascot on soft ground recently before capitulating at the final flight, I cannot (for the life of me) envisage hefty investors piling into the 3/10 odds of offer, especially if you take a glance at the favourite stats below!  Yes, Gary Moore should be back on the winners list at Sandown but at the odds on offer when compiling this column, it comes as no surprise to witness a little overnight support for NOTRE AMI.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 3/1.  That said, last year’s 1/7 market leader was turned over despite completing the course on behalf of trainer Nicky Henderson.

 

4.05: The ten winners during the last eleven years have carried eleven stones or more, though only dual course winner Vino Griego ‘fails to make the cut’ on this occasion.  AUBUSSON, MUCKLE ROE and BALLY LONGFORD all boast each way claims on the best on their form and are entered into the Placepot permutation.  Step Back offers similar claims but not at 5/2 from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mosspark (soft)

2/7—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) at the track this season and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Gary Moore (1/19 – loss of 10 points) – 22/107 +77

3—Emma Lavelle (1/3 – loss of 1) – 4/27 – loss of 4

3—Lucy Wadham (0/3) – 6/28 +9

2—Colin Tizzard (1/13 – loss of 9) – 5/50 – loss of 40

2—Kevin Frost (First runners at Sandown this season) – 1/2 +2

2—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 3/19 +4

2—Chris Gordon (0/3) – 1/27 – loss of 1

2—Paul Nicholls (3/23 – loss of 8) – 27/179 – loss of 20

2—Jamie Snowden ((First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/11

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/10 +8) – 7/52 +19

2—Venetia Williams (1/5 – loss of 1) – 9/95 – loss of 53

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

55 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: £4,824.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 3rd February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £146.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Countister) & 2 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Cepage)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Buveur D’Air)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Cyrname), 5 (Terrefort), 2 (Kalondra) & 4 (West Approach)

Leg 5 (3.00): 9 (Melrose Boy), 15 (Dashing Perk), 4 (Topofthegame) & 14 (King Of Fashion)

Leg 6 (3.35): 11 (Shanroe Santos). 8 (Holly Bush Henry), 1 (Yala Enki) & 9 (Wicked Willy)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson will want to seek compensation for the defeat of Rather Be in this event twelve months ago.  Nicky has declared his Doncaster winner COUNTISTER who won on soft ground in France on two occasions before crossing the English Channel.  Colin Tizzard’s Flemensfirth gelding AINCHEA looks the obvious danger in a race which could provide a few clues for better races in the spring.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Nicky Henderson trained) 4/5 market leader was beaten by the 7/4 second favourite (Alan King) when claiming a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ainchea (good to soft)

 

1.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, whilst eight of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 11-5.  As was the case twelve months ago, seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence again this time around.  Kerry Lee is well represented in a race which she won last year, with GINO TRAIL preferred to TOM GAMBLE on this occasion.  GINO TRAIL failed to find another gear to cope with Speredek over course and distance the last day, though there was no disgrace in finishing second to that useful performer under heavy conditions.  CEPAGE could split Kerry’s pair here, with the Venetia William’s raider lurking in the ‘superior’ sector of the weight according to the trends.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via eleven renewals during which time, six market leaders having finished in the frame.

 

1.50: Nicky Henderson (saddles last year’s winner BUVEUR D’AIR) has won four of the last six renewals of this event when represented and the champion hurdler should have no problem winning his thirteenth race on his sixteenth assignment.  Bookmakers will be betting on the distance – my guess for the record: 12 lengths.  John Constable will fill the runner up berth at a respectable distance accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six of the last nine favourites have won, whilst eight market leaders during the last 13 years have secured totplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the field in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buveur D’Air

 

2.25: Seven-year-old’s (not represented last year) have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Scilly Isles’ novice event, as have seven of the last 14 gold medallists.  KALONDRA is much preferred to No Comment of the pair of seven-year-olds though Noel Fehily’s mount might have to give way close home to the likes of CYRNAME and TERREFORT whose respective trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson go head to head again in a feature contest.  WEST APPROACH is not entirely dismissed at the time of writing, fearful that a non runner might raise its ugly head before flag fall, creating a ‘win only’ contest which would put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.
Favourite factor: The last 19 winners all scored at odds of 10/1 or less, with ten winning favourites having been recorded in the process. 17 of the 19 winners scored at a maximum price of 9/2, whilst 12 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Eight of the last eleven market leaders have obliged.

 

3.00: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, whilst Paul Nicholls (TOPOFTHEGAME) has saddled three of the last eight winners.  Paul’s six-year-old has to be included in the Placepot equation from my viewpoint, albeit he might represent poor value for money from a win perspective given that he is taking on the weight trends. That said, MELROSE BOY is also carrying plenty of pounds and ounces, though Harry Fry has a habit of annoying the handicapper with his improving young horses.  Each way alternative options from lower down the handicap include DASHING PERK and KING OF FASHION.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4) winners.

Record of course winners in the field in the fifth event:

1/1—Golan Fortune (good to soft)

1/1—Buywise (heavy)

 

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3.30: 13 of the last 16 winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-4, whilst Lucy Wadham (has won with the last two runners she has saddled in the contest) has declared SHANROE SHANROE.  Lucy’s course and distance winner is included in my Placepot mix alongside YALA ENKI, HOLLY BUSH HENRY and WICKED WILLY.  The latter named raider is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies whose last twenty horses have been beaten which is something of a worry, whilst YALA ENKI is a horse I have (seemingly) failed to call right every time the Venetia Williams trained raider has run.  That said, Venetia has won two of the last four renewals of this event whereby we live in hope.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten market leaders have won (first favourites to oblige since 1998), whilst eight of the market leaders during the study period have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the field in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Bishops Road (heavy)

2/10—Loose Chips (good)

1/1—Holly Bush Henry (good to soft)

1/2—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/6—Vino Griego (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 winners—Nicky Henderson(3/10 – loss of 2 points) – 34/129 +13

5—Kerry Lee (0/2) – 3/14 +1

5—Paul Nicholls (2/18 – loss of 10) – 26/174 loss of 22

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3.46 – loss of 36

4—Evan Williams (1/5 +8) – 1/34 – loss of 21)

3—Phil Middleton (0/3) – 4/9 +17

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 2/22 – slight loss

3—Gary Moore (1/13 – loss of 7) – 22/104 +79

2—David Dennis (First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/9 +17) – 5/54 +8

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/6) – 2/51 – loss of 43

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/8 +10) – 7/50 - +21

2—Venetia Williams (1/3 – slight profit) – 9/93 – loss of 51

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £459.00 (6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Wetherby: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £296.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: Essentially this is a new meeting

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

 

2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £89.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 7 (Whatswrongwithyou), 3 (Just A Sting) & 1 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (12.40): 3 (Ellens Way), 7 (The Wicket Chicken) & 1 (Whauduhavtoget)

Leg 3 (1.10): 6 (Connetable), 8 (Monbeg Oscar) & 1 (Beat That)

Leg 4 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 4 (North Hill Harvey)

Leg 5 (2.20): 6 (Jenkins), 10 (Exitas) & 8 (Fidux)

Leg 6 (2.55): 3 (Fox Norton) & 5 (Politologue)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Novice hurdle races produce the best record in the sport for winning favourites, and this opening event is a great example given the results during the last 18 years (see below).   Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the last eleven renewals between them, whilst Nicky Henderson has secured seven of the last eight renewals, whereby the 14/1 starting price of the winner three years ago defied belief!  I know that trends are there to be shot at and if it were the perfect science, I would not have to work every day for a living.  That said, I'll take 14/1 winners any day of the week, especially given that Nicky's second (more fancied) runner finished second at 3/1, creating a 53/1 forecast.  Don't always believe that I am in the minority for harping on about trainer trends, as the tote forecast (Exacta) paid less than twenty pounds, whereby many Tote punters homed in on Nicky's great record in the race.  Nicky would have had any number of options for this opening event whereby the declaration of WHATSWRONGWITHYOU jumps off the page.  If the four and five-year-olds are to dominate again however, the chances of the four-year-old representatives JUST A STING (Harry Fry saddled the winner last year) and AINCHEA are there to be seen via the form book.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a great record in this event, having won 12 of the last 18 renewals, with 15 of the successful horses having been returned at odds of 7/2 or less.  16/18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, investors from a win perspective should note that favourites have been beaten at 4/6, 8/11 and 4/5 within the last 15 years.

 

12.40: Handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip offer the worst record for favourites under either code of the ‘sport of kings’ year in and year out.  Those were words I opened with two years ago and you can see the result for yourself in the 'favourite factor' section below.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the nine available Placepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include the trio of winners at 14/1, 5/1 & 7/2.  Four of the five representatives this year seemingly hold chances of extending the trend, the pick of which will hopefully prover to be ELLENS WAY, THE WICKET CHICKEN and WHATDUHAVTOGET.
Favourite factor: The inaugural contest set up a great Placepot dividend (£1,939.70), with the frame being filled by horses returned at 14/1-25/1-8/1.  Only one of the joint 9/2 market leaders finished in the frame (without winning) the following year, though the 7/2 market leader prevailed twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Loves Destination (heavy)

 

1.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled six winners on this corresponding card during the last five years whereby the chance of CONNETABLE is respected, especially as Paul’s winners scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-13/2-5/1.  Paul has secured three of the last nine renewals where his five-year-old gelding could be the value for money call, especially as vintage representatives have won three of the last six contests.  The vintage stat also brings MONBEG OSCAR into the equation, with the highly rated five pound claimer Mitchell Bastyan in the saddle.  Jonjo O’Neill will be slightly embarrassed by his 2/50 strike rate at Sandown during the last five years I’ll wager, whereby his only runner on the card (Terry The Fish) is swerved by yours truly, preferring BEAT THAT who represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled no less than 11 winners (yes eleven) at this corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last five years!
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), stats which include three winning favourites.  Seven of the last nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Connetable (soft)

1.45: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this prestigious ‘Henry VIII’ Novice Chase event with the trainer represented by five-year-old Capitaine on this occasion. Vintage representatives have won five of the last seven contests whereby once again, Paul has shown his appreciation for statistics which have not let him down so far in his career!  That said, this looks a tough (and intriguing) renewal, with BRAIN POWER, FINIAN’S OSCAR and NORTH HILL HARVEY all boasting obvious claim for one reason or another.  There is a nagging notion that this event might just run the feet off Finian’s Oscar, whereby I will opt for the other pair, without totally discarding the chance of the fifth runner in the field (Sceau Royal) in any shape of form.  A typically wonderful Sandown event which demonstrates perfectly why this racecourse runs Cheltenham so close to being my favourite NH venue.
Favourite factor: 15 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 7/2 or less (14/1, 13/2 and 5/1 winners in three of the last four years spoil the trend to a fashion), statistics which includes seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (soft)

2.20: 13 of the last 18 contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 10-13 or less, whilst four-year-olds have claimed six of the last sixteen renewals.  FIDUX is the only runner in the field with ticks in both boxes (thanks to a jockey claim), though Alan King has been struggling for gold medallists of late (recent stats of 1/32) whereby JENKINS is preferred in terms of naming the actual winner.  Nicky Henderson looks to have laid out his five-year-old Azamour gelding for this contest and with the trainer having saddled four of the last seven winners, JENKINS is my each way nap on the card.  A winner of three of his six races to date (2/4 over timber), JENKINS looks to have plenty going for him and the 7/1 quotes by Betfair and Paddy Power make for attractive reading.  I do not anticipate that price being available by the time that the phones start ringing in their respective offices later this morning.  Connections might have most to fear from EXITAS if taking Alan King’s recent negative winning record into account.  Crossed My Mind is the ‘unknown factor’ in the field but I would rather stick closer to home given the potential of Jenkins, especially as Nicky won this with a particularly progressive type in Brain Power twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have been beaten in this Listed hurdle event, though 13 of the last 16 winners have been returned in single figures.  Eight of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/7—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/1—Exitas (soft)

2.55: Three of the last five winners of this event have gone on to win the 'Queen Mother' at Cheltenham in the same season, whilst last year’s Gold Medallist was aimed at the ‘Ryanair’ at the festival and Un De Sceaux duly obliged.  Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last 17 winners of the ’Tingle Creek’ (including seven of the last 12) and the stable is represented by POLITOLOGUE on this occasion, though it would a big surprise if FOX NORTON failed to become the fourth seven-year-old to win this event in what would be the last nine years.  Colin Tizzard’s raider put on a masterclass at Cheltenham the last day despite looking as though the run would put him 100% right and whatever scope Paul’s horse has for improvement, it’s unlikely to upset favourite backers here, albeit I expect POLIOLOGUE to account for the other five entries, the best of which should prove to be CHARBEL is you want to have a speculative each way punt to small stakes.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this ‘Tingle Creek’ event, whilst the last 17 winners all scored at odds of 9/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Our Mad (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their five year totals of winners at this corresponding ‘Tingle Creek’ meeting:

7—Paul Nicholls (6 winners)

5—Nicky Henderson (11)

4—Alan King (2)

3—Harry Fry (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Dan Skelton

3—Colin Tizzard

2—Kim Bailey

2—Chris Gordon

2—Phil Middleton (1)

2—Jeremy Scott

2—Evan Williams

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £637.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chepstow: £91.80 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Wetherby: £57.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverh’ton: £236.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,787.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Shanroe Santos), 2 (Pickamix) & 12 (Lunar Flow)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Jukebox Jive), 5 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Touch Kick) & 5 (Darebin)

Leg 4 (2.30): 2 (On The Blind Side) & 8 (White Moon)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bally Gilbert), 3 (Workbench) & 7 (Gregarious)

Leg 6 (3.35): 12 (Cap Du Nord), 5 (Rainy Day Dylan) & 9 (Le Capriceux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Nine of the thirteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum weight of 11-4, statistics which include three (10/1, 7/1 & 3/1) of the five gold medallists.  Taking all the jockey claims into account, seven of the thirteen declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trend.  SHANROE SANTOS catches the eye for at least two reasons having won under these projected (good to soft) conditions here at Sandown already, representing Lucy Wadham whose Sandown record (see stats at the foot of the column) is worth noting in no uncertain terms.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick which also brings PICKAMIX into the equation.  If I had to pick out one horse which sits below the ‘superior’ weight barrier on this occasion, the vote would have to go to LUNAR FLOW whose trainer Jamie Snowden has bagged three winners via his last eight runners.  Out of interest, there was support for Jamie’s six-year-old gelding overnight which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (3/1 & 7/4) winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Pete The Feat (soft)

1/1—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/2—Jennys Surprise (2 x soft)

 

1.25: There have been a few short priced casualties in this event down the years (including an 8/15 chance two years ago) whereby interpretation of potential investors steaming into fancied runners too heavily should be issued with a health warning, though including such runners in Placepot permutations is okay with yours truly, as was (successfully) the case twelve months ago. Anthony Honeyball was in the middle of a ‘purple patch’ when nearly everything he touched turned to gold when JUKEBOX JUVE won on debut at Fontwell on this type of ground.  The yard subsequently (inevitably) went through a quieter patch though it’s worth noting that Anthony scored with both of his entries yesterday.  That said, part time NH trainer Andrew Balding has won with four of the thirteen runners he has saddled in the last five years at this venue, whereby the chance of his newcomer NIGHT OF GLORY is thoroughly respected.  Any further interest for TOMMY HALLINON on the exchanges (there has been some investment already) would add interest and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

1.55: 12 of the 15 winners to date have carried weights of 11-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests via less than 20% of the total number of runners in those races. No five-year-olds were declared last year and with DAREBIN being the only representative on show today, trainers need to wake up and smell the coffee as far as this contest in concerned.  Like Toomy Hallinan in the previous race, I can report early support/activity for a Paul Nicholls runner on the card, given that the 6/1 trade press quote about TOUCH KICK was never really in evidence and in the odd place that early birds might have had some pickings, the price did not last for long.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have snared gold thus far, whilst 11 of the 19 jollies have reached the frame.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/4—Darebin (soft)

 

2.30: Some really good horses have won this race down the years including Inglis Drever, What’s Up Boys and the ill-fated Rouble to name but three fine thoroughbreds, notwithstanding Fingal Bay six years ago.  Last year’s winner went on to lift the Challow Hurdle next time out at Newbury before securing place positions in Grade 1 events at the Cheltenham & Aintree festivals earlier this year. Five-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, with ON THE BLIND SIDE (Nicky Henderson’s only raider on the card) and WHITE MOON (one of just two runners for Colin Tizzard at Sandown today) hailing from the vintage on this occasion with definite claims.  Alan King has saddled four of the last eight winners though the popular trainer is not represented today.  I have left the stat in place, knowing that some readers keep these records for future use.
Favourite factor: All 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

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3.05: If the ground becomes soft by the time that this event is reached, don’t be too surprised if there is some money forthcoming for dual course winner GREGARIOUS at around the 20/1 mark, especially given the Lucy Wadham Sandown stats which I referred to earlier.  Apologies for that last phrase which sounded like a ‘House of Commons’ remark my learned friends!  Upwards and onward by admitting that more logical winners at the time of writing include BALLY GILBERT and WORKBENCH though if you prefer the latter named Dan Skelton raider, you might care to take a look at his negative Sandown stats below before wading in too heavily.  BALLY GILBERT has already been the subject of plenty of overnight support and hailing from Ben Pauling’s yard, it’s not difficult to see why.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far without tinning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Gregarious (2 x soft)

3.35: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with RAINY DAY DYLAN and LE CARICIEAX among their number this time around, the trend could be enhanced today.  You have to admire the patience of a trainer like Christian Williams.  Christian has only saddled five winners to date, whereby it would have come as no surprise for the trainer to have tried to capitalize on his best success to date when scoring with Limited Reserve at Haydock a fortnight ago.  The fact that he has waited until today to send out his next runner is admirable from my viewpoint and I wish him and the team all the luck in the world for the future, starting with CAP DU NORD in this contest.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/1 or less, whilst four clear and one joint favourite have obliged for supporters of the market leaders.  11 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal stats (in brackets)  and five year ratios at Sandown + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Gary Moore (0/4) – 21/95 +83

4—Paul Nicholls (0/6) – 24/162 – loss of 18 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/4) – 1/37 – loss of 30 points

2—Philip Hobbs (0/2) – 14/72 +3

2—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 4/48 – loss of 11 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3) – 2/48 – loss of 40 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) – 0/15

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 2/38 – loss of 32 points

2—Lucy Wadham (First runners this season) – 6/25 +12

2—Christian Williams (0/1) – No previous runners

2—Nick Williams (First runners this season) – 3/24 – loss of 5 points

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: Meeting abandoned

Sedgefield: £54.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.29 – 7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 12th November

SANDOWN - NOVEMBER 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £703.40 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Bastien), 1 (Capeland) & 5 (Paddys Runner)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Challonial), 7 (Touch Kick) & 10 (Bally Gilbert)

Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (Irish Prophecy) & 7 (Second Time Around)

Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (Might Bite) & 3 (As De Mee)

Leg 5 (2.55): 6 (Sword Of Fate), 8 (Garo De Juilley) & 7 (Wolfcatcher)

Leg 6 (3.30): 1 (Double Ross) & 8 (Pete The Feat)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.45: Gary Moore ruled the Sandown venue with a stunning ratio of 10/25 (profit of 65 points to level stakes) the season before last which was set up when landing a 1529/1 treble on this corresponding card two years ago.  Gary endured a season he will want to forget at the track last year however, as the stats at the foot of the column will reveal.  Mr Fickle represented the yard in this event twelve months ago when finishing with only one behind him, with ten pound claimer James Nuttall retaining the ride.  I expect Gary to have better luck later on the card, preferring the likes of CAPELAND and BASTIEN this time around. The latter named six-year-old is the only vintage raider here in an attempt to maintain their 100% record in the race following three renewals.  There is a threat of rain arriving late morning into the early part of the afternoon in the Esher area which could disrupt the form book. That said, PADDYS RUNNER (placed on the  corresponding card last year) should not be affected either way whereby the five-year-old is added into the equation.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date has claimed a Placepot position, without winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Mr Fickle (soft)

 

1.20: Harry Fry secured a 32/1 treble yesterday via just six runners whereby the team will have plenty of confidence going into today’s sport.  A winner of two of his five races to date, Harry’s CHALONNIAL is their lone representative today and providing he takes to fencing, the five-year-old should figure prominently with any rain in the area likely to increase his chance of winning.  TOUCH KICK appears to be the main danger, though money has come for BALLY GILBERT overnight which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite could only finish second in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.50: Alan King has failed to visit the area reserved for winning connections for the last six years in any race at the corresponding fixture, though that poor run (by Alan’s high standards) could end here via his Market Rasen winner SECOND TIME AROUND in a race which might not prove difficult to win.  That said, Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY was all the rage on the exchanges in the dead of night whereby the trade press quote of even money might be difficult to obtain towards flag fall. It’s interesting to note that some of the top trainers have swerved this event and the possibility of meeting up with Emma’s raider could be the reason why.  The chance of LEAPAWAY cannot be entirely ignored with Philip Hobbs having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, notwithstanding an 80/1 silver medallist during the period!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/15 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Nicky Henderson will be glancing up at the skies as he travels to Sandown today I’ll wager.  His star representative MIGHT BITE is a winner of seven of his twelve races to date but his one assignment on bad ground brought about a defeat.  The forecast suggests that heavy rain (if any at all) is doubtful whereby the ton in hand he has of his rivals here should ensure success.  These fences have brought about the downfall of many good horses in the past however and with two of his three rivals having already won here on soft ground, I doubt I will be in the queue to take odds of around 1/4 this afternoon, irrespective of whether we endure the wet stuff. AS DE MEE has won twice around here and looks to be the forecast call, if you want to play the race that way.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the eleven renewals during the last twelve years, in which nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

2/6—As De Mee (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Label Des Obeaux (soft)

 

2.55: Eight of the nine horses that have secured Placepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 and though three results hardly form a trend as such, I would rather have the figures on my side than against.  The pick of the relevant horses in Sunday’s contest will hopefully prove to be SWORD OF FATE, GARO DE JUILLEY and WOLFCATCHER from the yard of Ian Williams who saddled last year’s winner, notwithstanding his great double via both codes yesterday.  WENYERREADYFREDDIE makes his handicap debut and could yet be anything, though whether Nicky Henderson’s projected favourite will offer any value for money from a Placepot perspective here is open to plenty of doubt.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites have snared Placepot positions by securing gold and silver medals thus far.

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3.30: A typical Sandown Steeplechase which will create panic in the ranks should a non runner rear its ugly head before flag fall.  DOUBLE ROSS looks the safest bet as far as our favourite wager is concerned, not that I would even attempt to name the winner in the Placepot finale.  Ground conditions will not affect the Twiston-Davies raider either way, with connections possibly having most to fear from PETE THE FEAT and CREEVYTENNANT.

Favourite factor: The inaugural trio of 4/1 co favourites all missed out on Placepot positions in a short field contest.  One of the two joint favourites subsequently obliged twelve months later, though that still leaves an unimpressive 1/5 ratio from a Placepot viewpoint to consider.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

2/4—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)

1/4—Pete The Feat (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Sunday followed by stats at the course last season and the relevant profits losses accrued:

6 runners—Paul Nicholls (3/40 – loss of 21 points)

4—Nicky Henderson (11/42 – Slight loss)

4—Alan King (5/13 +5)

4—Gary Moore (2/32 – loss of 17 points)

4—Jonjo O’Neill (0/7)

4—Dan Skelton (0/6)

3—Charlie Longsdon (2/15 +9)

2—Stuart Edmunds (0/4)

2—Philip Hobbs (4/19 – loss of 5 points)

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/12 +2)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/9 +9)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/14 +18)

2—Evan Williams (0/7)

2—Ian Williams (3/9 +12)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £230.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th September

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £110.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 2 (African Friend), 4 (Artscape) & 5 (Coastal Cyclone)

Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Kitaabaat) & 5 (Falcon Eye)

Leg 3 (2.35): 3 (Il Primo Sole) & 1 (Last Voyage)

Leg 4 (3.05): 3 (Laidback Romeo), 7 (D’bai) & 5 (Richard Pankhurst)

Leg 5 (3.40): 8 (Clearly), 7 (Dynamic) & 3 (Madeleine Bond)

Leg 6 (4.15): 2 (Stone The Crows), 7 (Rake’s Progress) & 11 (Makkadangdang)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Some housekeeping to attend to before I commence play as 32/35 winners at this correspond meeting during the last five years have won at a top price of 9/1, stats which include no less than 15 successful favourites! Even the other three gold medallists ‘only’ started at 14/1 and 16/1 (twice). Three of the four winners of the opening event have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 thus far, stats which eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap if you believe in trends which by now (after 17 years of daily advice), you do.  The pick of the relevant ‘survivors’ will hopefully prove to be AFRICAN FRIEND, ARTSCAPE and COASTAL CYCLONE, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four favourites to date and we have yet to see any of them finishing in the frame!  That said, all four winners have, at least, been returned in single figures (9/1, 7/1, 5/1 & 4/1).

 

2.00: Owen Burrows introduced a nice looking prospect to winning effect at Yarmouth yesterday and stable companion KITAABAAT should at least ‘trouble the judge’ at the third time of asking in this grade/company.  Owen’s Dansili colt has only been beaten by an aggregate of two and a quarter lengths thus far and Jim Crowley’s mount should reach the frame at the very least.  FALCON EYE ‘splits the books’ here, ranging between 10/3 and 5/1 as I write though either way, Charlie’s Appleby’s once raced juvenile looks set to become competitive at the business end of proceedings after a decent enough debut effort at Newmarket a couple of months back.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

2.35: This event has already turned in to a ‘win only’ contest with just the four runners now set to face the starter.  I often include all contenders in these win only events in the hope that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails though in this instance, all the overnight money has been spilt between IL PRIMO SOLE and LAST VOYAGE.  Richard Hughes appears to have a nice type in Ragstone Road but he meets two strong rivals on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/3 (John Gosden trained) favourite duly obliged before last year’s 15/8 market leader failed to reach the frame in a short field event.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

3.05: Seven of the eight winners of this Listed event have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst three-year-olds have claimed four of the last six contests.  Clive Cox is surely in the form of his life I would tentatively suggest, as his last thirteen winners have prevailed via a 46% strike rate!  Clive saddles LAIDBACK ROMEO here at an each way price which was around the 12/1 mark when writing this column.  It’s worth noting (perhaps) that one of two Clive Cox scorers on this card during the study period was returned at 16/1. Clive’s only other runner today is an 8/1 chance at Yarmouth (no runners at all tomorrow) whereby an each way double might prove fruitful.  Others of interest as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol this morning include D’BAI and the slightly enigmatic John Gosden raider RICHARD PANKHURST.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven of the ten favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—Laidback Romeo (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Khafoo Shememi (good to firm)

1/1—Larchmont Lad (good to soft)

 

3.40: Nine of the last twelve winners of this Class 4 handicap event for fillies have carried a maximum weight of 8-13, including two gold medallists which were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.  CLEARLY very much looks the pick of the four qualifiers via the weight trends though that said, DYNAMIC is a useful rival sitting just three pounds further up the handicap.  There is an old saying that if you fall off your bike when learning to ride, you should get straight back on and that is the case here with the underrated claimer Georgia Cox climbing back aboard MADELEINE BOND after their ‘disagreement’ shortly after the start at Yarmouth the last day.  This trio will get us safely through to the Placepot finale if we were live going into the fifth leg.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have won at 7/2, 3/1 & 15/8 alongside a 6/1 co favourite during the last twelve years though that said, the last four jollies have finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Al Nafoorah (good)

1/1—Finale (good to soft)

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4.15: MAKKADANGDANG represents the yard of Andrew Balding who has saddled three winners at this fixture during the last five years which were all returned as favourites of their respective events.  No trainer can equal Andrew’s figure though unless there is a dramatic plunge on the bottom weight, Andrew’s Mastercraftsman gelding should be returned in double figures which is worth a minimum stake win and place wager from my viewpoint.  That said, the last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more to victory which also brings other each way types such as STONE THE CROWS and RAKE’S PROGRESS into the equation.

Favourite factor: The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 though just one successful market leader was registered during the period.  Six of the last 10 favourites have snared Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Jupiter Light (good to firm)

1/3—Mister Blue Sky (good to soft)

1/1—The Statesman (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Hannon (9/56 – loss of 5 points)

6—John Gosden (4/30 – loss of 10 points)

4—Charlie Hills (3/21 (+3)

4—Hugo Palmer (0/11)

3—Charlie Appleby (2/11 – loss of 7 points)

3—Andrew Balding (1/24 - +17)

3—Harry Dunlop (0/7)

2—Henry Candy (2/11 – loss of 4 points)

2—Roger Charlton (4/15 – loss of 5 points)

2—Simon Crisford (3/6 +10)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/11 – slight profit)

2—Ed de Giles (0/2)

2—Philip Hide (0/5)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/3)

2—Roger Teal (0/4)

2—Roger Varian (6/15 +2)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £54.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Yarmouth: £12.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kelso: £198.70 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.50 Redcar : Placebo Effect @ 9/2 non-BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Dwelt and slightly hampered start, held up and behind, headway under pressure over 1f out, slightly hampered and switched right inside final furlong, kept on but beaten by 1.5 lengths...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

D'Bai @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 3yr old gelding with 3 wins and 3 places from his six runs to date, including of relevance here...

  • 3/4 after a break of less than 60 days
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over a mile
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/2 as favourite
  • a win and a place from two runs in Listed company
  • 1/1 on good to soft
  • 1/1 in blinkers

Three year olds have won four of the last six runnings of this race and D'Bai is best in at the weights based on handicap marks.

Trainer Charlie Appleby is 13/41 (31.7% SR) over the last 30 days, not counting a 1 from 2 return at Newcastle on Tuesday evening after I'd already made the selection.

Here at Sandown, his strike rate is 18.5% (12 winners from 65), with non-handicap races providing 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for profits of 7pts at an ROI of 17.9% and of these 39...

  • males are 8/31 (25.8%) for 15pts (+48.4%)
  • the last three seasons are 5/23 (21.7%) for 13pts (+56.4%)
  • and males over the last three seasons are 5/20 (25%) for 16pts (+80%)

Plus...since 2008, male Class 1 runners priced at 7/4 to 8/1 who have already won at this grade, but ran at Class 2 last time out in the past 60 days are 28/147 (19.1% SR) for 39.9pts (+27.2% ROI).

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on D'Bai @ 3/1 BOG, which was offered by Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport at 6.10pm on Tuesday. For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,078.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Tigre Du Terre) & 2 (Aqabah)

Leg 2 (1.50): 12 (Tomyris), 5 (Tallayeb) & 1 (Unforgetable Filly)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Heartache) & 1 (Havana Grey)

Leg 4 (3.00): 7 (Time To Study) & 3 (Penglai Pavilion)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Montaly), 8 (She Is No Lady), 4 (High Jinx) & 3 (Fun Mac)

Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Ghaiyyath), 10 (Tiffin Top) & 5 (Military Law)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: Of the three horses that figured strongly in the market when the final runners were declared, TIGRE DU TERRE is holding up best at the time of writing.  Drying ground will suit Richard Hannon’s raider and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Le Havre colt, the Hannon/Moore bandwagon should prevail again.  Of the other pair, AQABAH is preferred to Zaaki.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 12 renewals contested during the last 13 years were also secured by market leaders.

 

1.50: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 20 renewals (including 14 of the last 16) and with 10 of the 13 declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (77% of the field), the result should revert back to type after last year’s trend buster.  Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of TOMYRIS (drawn 12/13), TALLAYEB (8) and UNFORGETTABLE FILLY (7), a trio which should gain a couple of Placepot positions between them.  The draw numbers went base over apex on the only ‘recent’ occasion the race was contested under good to soft decisions but that said, just eight runners took part on the relevant day.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last 20 years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

6-7 (7 ran-good)

4-15-8 (20 ran-good)

9-4-16 (15 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

16-17-1 (18 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1--Pirouette (good)

 

2.25: HEARTACHE is a filly of outstanding ability and the Queen Mary winner can be considered unlucky not to have kept her unbeaten record intact on the continent the last day.  Bumped leaving the stalls, Clive Cox’s Kyllachy filly never quite recovered from the early setback, though Clive’s February foal is expected to bounce back successfully today.  That said, the declaration of HAVANA GREY sets up a fascinating clash as Karl Burke’s colt ‘only’ has to give the filly three pounds.  Speculative investors might offer YOGI’S GIRL a chance of beating the other six horses home, albeit at a respectable distance behind the front pair.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 10 of the 22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Only one the last 75 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 58 points.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-3-11 (11 ran-good)

3-6-1 (9 ran-good)

3-14-1 (14 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good soft)

7-1-6 (9 ran-good)

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

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7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.00: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst ten three-year-olds have won during the study period.  The only junior raider (Wall Of Fire) won last year and Mark Johnston (TIME TO STUDY) is seemingly the only trainer who reads this column!  Please take that last comment with the proverbial ‘pinch of salt’ but you hopefully catch my drift.  Last Saturday’s ‘endurance test’ at Haydock on poor ground should have set up TIME TO STUDY enough to snare this prize, with the general offer of 7/2 making plenty of appeal this morning.  PENGLAI PAVILION is feared most.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of the Doncaster Cup (lone raider Quest for more finished second twelve months ago) and this year’s two representatives MONTALY and FUN MAC are the first pair to be added into my Placepot permutation this time around.  The pair are listed in order of preference with Andrerw Balding’s first named raider holding definite chance from a win perspective.  As much as I love this St Leger meeting however, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket aside from a Placepot wager as far as this event is concerned.  Other each way types such as SHE IS NO LADY and HIGH JINX add plenty of interest.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, whilst 11 of the other 14 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Doncaster Cup:

1/3--Clever Cookie (soft)

1/4--High Jinx (good to soft)

1/1—Pallastor (good)

2/2—Skeikhzayedroad (2 x good)

1/1—Thomas Hobson (soft)

 

4.05:  John Gosden has been the trainer to follow on the third day of the meeting in recent years and having declared two runners in the race, the chances of TIFFIN TOP and MILITARY LAE are respected.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH comes into his first race with a tall reputation, confirmed by his entries in the ‘Royal Lodge’ and the Racing Post Trophy later this season.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last ten favourites have won during which time, six winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.  That said, the other four winners scored at 16/1, 14/1-12/1 and 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their number of winners on Town Moor on the corresponding day in recent years:

3 runners—Charlie Appleby

3—Tom Dascombe

3—Tim Easterby

3—John Gosden (5)

3—Richard Hannon (2)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Karl Burke

2—Mick Channon

2—Clive Cox

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Brian Ellison

2—David Evans

2—Hughie Morrison

2—Aidan O’Brien

2—Hugo Palmer (1)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (1)

2—John Ryan

2—Roger Varian (3)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £21.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Salisbury: £31.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Sandown: £49.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday September 3rd

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £172.10 (4 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unpalced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Kasbah), 1 (Monsieur Joe) & 4 (Majestic Hero)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Maser) & 5 (Persur)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Intimation), 11 (On Her Toes) & 12 (Tisbutadream)

Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Shabbah) & 10 (Across Dubai)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Cheeky Rascal), 1 (Lethal Lunch) & 4 (Barford)

Leg 6 (4.45): 11 (Najashee), 9 (High Draw) & 10 (Al Nafoorah)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst the relevant nine events have failed to register a single winning favourite.  The weight stats eliminate the bottom four horses (of ten in total) from my enquiries. Shamson was returned as the well beaten favourite in this event twelve months ago and it might be worth taking the six-year-old on with KASBAH, MONSIEUR JOE and MAJESTIC HERO this time around.

Favourite factor: Only two of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Shamson (good to firm)

1/1—Majestic Hero (soft)

2/2—Bahamian Sunrise (good & soft)

 

2.25: I gave 33/1 winner VINATAGER an each way squeak before registering his recent soft ground success though of course, the ground will be much quicker this time around.  It remains to be seen how David Menuisier’s Mastercraftsman colt handles the conditions, though there was plenty to like about the manner of his success on the July course at Newmarket.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s MASER found some trouble in running but was still good enough to snare the bronze medal in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, having previously won on debut at Goodwood on good ground.  PURSER also has to enter the equation following a sound effort when scoring at Newbury on his first day at school.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won the Solario Stakes during the last decade, whilst nine gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 11/2.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—Connect (good to soft)

 

3.00: Nine of the last 11 gold medallists in this Atalanta Stakes (for fillies and mares) have hailed from the three-year-old ranks, with vintage representatives at 8/5 this time around before the form book is consulted.  Sir Michael Stoute has his team in fine form and having won three of the last eight renewals of this Group 3 event, Michael has a definite chance of improving his recent tally having offered INTIMATION the green light.  That said, connections of the three-year-old course winners ON HER TOES and TISBUTADREAM will not mind the fast ground for their respective representatives.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed, as have five of the last eight, albeit those stats include a 13/8 market leader who shared the spoils via a dead heat back in 2013.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—On Her Toes (good to firm)

1/1—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

 

3.35: The last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 whereby the top five horses in the handicap might not represent value for money in the contest, if you follow the recent weight trend.   SHABBAH is on offer at 11/1 at the time of writing and I have already tipped my win and place toe into the murky waters, believing that Ryan Moore’s mount can gain a Placepot position at the very least.  Others to catch my eye include ACROSS DUBAI and hat trick seeker THUNDERING BLUE.

Favourite factor: Five renewals had slipped by since a winning favourite had been recorded before last year’s 9/4 market leader repaired some of the damage on behalf of favourite backers.  Only two of the last six favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/4—Master Carpenter (good to firm)

1/1—Euginio (good to firm)

1/2—Silver Ghost (good to soft)

1/1—Shabbah (good)

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1/2—Mutaakez (good)

 

4.10: The weight stats reveal that the bottom two horses in the handicap might struggle to score as the last seven gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 to victory.  That leaves us with six horses to assess, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CHEEKY RASCAL, LETHAL LUNCH and BARFORD.  The trio are listed in marginal order of preference, with Livingstone’s Quest only overlooked because of the heavy ground which was in evidence when he scored at Ffos Las last time out.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have troubled the judge from a Placepot perspective since back to back favourites obliged in 2011/12.  Indeed, those two successful market leaders are the only favourites to have won during the last decade.

 

4.45: Owen Burrows can do very little wrong just now and the trainer has seemingly found a fine opportunity for his Invincible Spirit colt NAJASHEE to successfully follow up his recent fast ground Haydock.  Karl Burke had made a habit of raiding this venue successfully this term, whereby the chance of HIGH DRAW is respected, whilst AL NAFOORAH completes my trio against the other nine contenders in the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, with three clear market leaders having scored alongside a 9/2 joint favourite during the period.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Grand Inquisitor (good to firm)

2/18—Directorship (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed (where relevant) by their winners on the corresponding (August 20th) card year:

5—Richard Hannon

4—John Gosden (6/4* last year)

3—David Elsworth

3—Eve Johnson Houghton

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Michael Attwater

2—Andrew Balding (9/4*)

2—Clive Cox

2—Ed Dunlop

2—Richard Fahey

2—William Haggas

2—Philip Hide

2—Brian Meehan

2—David Menuisier

2—Rod Millman

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

77 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £8.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chester: £48.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: This is a new meeting

Newton Abbot: £56.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting