Tag Archive for: Sandown racecourse

Tix Picks, Friday 06/12/24

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Friday's racing comes from Dundalk, Exeter, Newcastle, Sandown & Sedgefield.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sandown...

There are  some quality albeit small fields and a big pot at Sandown, so let's head there for six races on good to soft/soft ground, beginning with...

Leg 1 @ 12.48...(2) City Of London is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Nemean Lion and was beaten by less than two lengths on debut as a runner-up behind odds-on My Noble Lord at Chepstow in October, more to come.

(4) Hot Fuss was useful on the Flat being considered to contest a couple of Listed races last year and ended his time in that code with finishes of 2332 this autumn before a promising hurdles debut at Wincanton almost six weeks ago. He was unlucky to bump into the 1/2 fav East India Dock that day, but did beat the rest of the field. The winner has since won a Grade 2 by 18 lengths at Cheltenham.

(7) Small Fry was 121122 on his last six runs on the AW/Flat, winning over trips as far as 1m6½f and his record on soft or worse ground reads 3122 so he shouldn't lack for stamina, but was being at very short odds on hurdling debut when third of eight at Fontwell last month and will ned to improve.

I'd have them in order as 4, 7, 2 but I'm going to take all three anyway.

Leg 2 @ 1.23...Just five go to post for this one too and I find it hard to look beyond last year's winner (1) Mount Tempest. He went on to win a Class 2 handicap after this race last year and was a decent-enough fourth of fifteen at Bangor recently despite coming off a seven month absence.

I'd be all in with this one, but I will take a couple of longer priced horses as backup and the value seems to lie with (2) Mint Gold and possibly (6) Calgary Tiger.

Mint Gold's record last season read 1F22 in a light campaign and he's already had a run this season, ending a 176-day break by finishing third at Carlisle without ever really being pushed, whilst Calgary Tiger gets weight all round and comes here off the back of a really good effort at Aintree four weeks ago when third of eight at a big price. This pair will probably be outliers in the market, but this kind of horse pushes the dividend up if they place!

Leg 3 @ 1.58...This looked like a two-horse race to me between (3) Bill Joyce and (4) Kingston Pride. Bill Joyce won his sole PTP race and his first two bumpers before being well beaten in the Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He then didn't race for eight months but came back to win nicely over today's trip at Carlisle on hurdles debut at the start of November.

Kingston Pride was a runner-up beaten by 1.5 lengths in a Class 2, A/W bumper at Lingfield back in January, but scored on turf debut landing a bumper at Exeter in April prior to a 211-day break. His return to action at Uttoxeter three weeks ago saw him win very comfortably over this trip on his first crack at hurdles.

I expect the main challenges to come from (1) Admiral Stewart and/or (6) Quebecois. The former is a former PTP winner, who made all to win over 2m at Ffos Las 16 days ago and should relish the step up in trip, whilst the latter was a soft ground hurdle winner at Chepstow at the end of October when running for the first time in over seven months and his yard (Paul Nicholls) won this race in 2019 and 2022.

Admiral Stewart edges it for me for third here.

Leg 4 @ 2.33...I've lost the withdrawn Riskintheground from my overnight shortlist, leaving me with three that I'd be happy with. With regards to finding a winner, I'm struggling to see past (3) Resplendent Grey who was a decent hurdler winning on soft ground at Uttoxeter in May, before a chase debut at the same venue five months later saw him win again. He backed up that first chase effort with a staying-on second in a Listed chase at Cheltenham last month going down by just half a length to Hyland who is now 3 from 4 over fences.

Of the rest, the ones I think that might fare best would be (1) Cadell and/or (2) Handstands. Cadell won very cosily over this trip at Wetherby finishing 15 lengths clear. This is an obviously much tougher assignment and I suspect the market will show this tougher but his yard go well here and this one could easily outrun his odds.

Handstands, however, has yet to complete a race over fences, having fallen on his debut at Wincanton four weeks ago. The context of this is that despite eight months off track, his yard deemed him good enough to tackle a Grade 2 chase first up and he actually went really well until a mistake three out saw him fall when in a great position. A similar effort in a clear round puts him right in the mix today and he already has top level success under his belt from landing a Listed hurdle at Huntingdon in February.

Leg 5 @ 3.03...Things go from bad to worse for me here, as I've lost two of my top three from this one with Beachcomber and Tea Clipper now not running, leaving LTO winner (6) Jupiter Allen as my number 1 pick here. He made the frame in four of eight over hurdles and won on heavy ground at Exeter back in March. He returned to Exeter in October for a first crack at their fences and despite a 166-day absence ran well enough to win at this trip/class.

The main challenger is probably going to be (8) Hoe Joe Smoke whilst (3) Jupiter Du Gite could offer some value as an alternative.

Hoe Joe Smoke is yet to win after six attempts, but did make the frame in four of five over hurdles and when making a chase debut at Uttoxeter in October was a very promising runner-up to Resplendent Grey (who runs at 2.33) even though he hadn't been seen for over ten months. He should come on for the run and he has gone well at this trip.

Jupiter Du Gite is a confirmed front-runner who'll look to string the field out here in the hope of holding on to some prize money. He has finished 2142 over fences this year including a win on heavy ground and that stamina might be needed as he goes beyond 2m4f for the first time, a fact probably recognised by the market.

Leg 6 @ 3.35...I've lost Cavern Club from my overnight shortlist, but my 1-2 are still in place in the form of (2) I Wish You and (5) Fasol.

I Wish You has yet to finish outside the first two home, winning one of five starts and a similar top two finish will suffice for me here today. All five runs have been on soft or heavy ground so underfoot conditions are no issue and he battled well to win at Carlisle last time out in his first run for six months, standing him in good stead for his handicap debut.

Fasol's record isn't anywhere near as good, but I just thought that he was 'best of the rest'. His record reads 4244, which signifies unfulfilled potential to me as in he goes well enough but doesn't quite get home. His best run to date came over 2m5f at Kempton, so he has stamina and he might well need it here, having never raced on soft ground before.

After these two, I'm probably looking at the likes of (4) Authentic Legacy to fill the void created by Cavern Club. Authentic Legacy has shown some promise so far, but remains a maiden after 2 bumpers and 3 hurdle races, although he has been in the frame in all three over hurdles, finishing as runner-up in each, going down by just a length and a quarter last time out. He was headed before the last at Fontwell almost three weeks ago, despite being sent off at 5/6 and the drop back in trip should help him here, as his yard look for a fifth win in this race over the past ten years.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Hot Fuss, (7) Small Fry & (2) City Of London

Leg 2: (1) Mount Tempest, (2) Mint Gold & (6) Calgary Tiger

Leg 3: (4) Kingston Pride, (3) Bill Joyce & (1) Admiral Stewart

Leg 4: (3) Resplendent Grey, (1) Cadell & (2) Handstands

Leg 5: (6) Jupiter Allen, (8) Hoe Joe Smoke & (3) Jupiter Du Gite

Leg 6: (2) I Wish You, (5) Fasol & (4) Authentic Legacy

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

 

Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/09/24

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Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Beverley, Kelso, Sandown & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...so let's head to Sandown, where the going is expected to be good to soft, but better in places on the round course for....

Leg 1 : 1.50 Sandown, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Harb won this race last year off a mark 3lbs higher than today and comes here off the back of a win, having scored over course and distance here less than three weeks ago, as did Secret Handsheikh nine days ago. Soul Seeker was third last time out but is winless in 12, whilst the consistent Media Guest has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last eight starts.

Harb looks the lost likely to succeed based on Instant Expert...

...but low drawn runners (Secret Handsheikh & Soul Seeker) appear to have the edge...

(2) Secret Handsheikh is the likely pacemaker here and I'll take him along with (5) Harb from this one.

Leg 2 : 2.20 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 1m

Three of the field have never raced before, Prince of The Seas and Wild Nature were both runners-up on debut with the other six runners failing to make the frame in nine combined starts. Even if all of them improve this time out, it's hard to see any of them dislodging Prince of The Seas and Wild Nature from the frame. Of the newcomers, Almeric would be of interest if the market got behind him, but for me it has to be (6) Prince of The Seas and (11) Wild Nature.

Leg 3 : 2.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Class 4, 2yo novice stakes over 7f

Rock Doro was slowly away on debut at Chelmsford three weeks ago, but still managed to get going enough to finish second, three quarters of a length behind 4/9 fav Bay City Roller, whose next/latest outing was a win in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last weekend. I'm not say Rock Doro is that good, but any similar run to last time out should be more than enough here.

Of the others, Keble Spirit interests me. He's by Too Darn Hot and the Gosdens have a good record with debutants...

So, I'll take (4) Keble Spirit and (6) Rock Doro here.

Leg 4 : 3.23 Sandown, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m

This looks a wide-open affair and unusually for a Class1 race, none of the field come here off the back of a win, although Checkandchallenge and Imperial Quarter both finished third and Elnajmm had finished 222111 in his first six races before a 3.5 length defeat at York last time out was only good enough for 9th place in a competitive 18 runner handicap at York.

A higher draw would be preferred here, which would benefit Beshtani (in first time cheekpieces), Checkandchallenge and Cash...

with the pace/draw heat map backing this up and adding the consistent Elnajmm back into the mix...

From a stat perspective, Elnajmm might benefit from an excellent trainer/jockey partnership...

And based on the above, I think I need to take (5) Elnajmm forward, along with (3) Checkandchallenge, whilst (2) Cash is interesting. he's well drawn, won't have too much traffic to pass and if running like he did in Class 1 races last year, could well spring a surprise here, so I have to take him too!

Leg 5 : 3.55 Sandown, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m

Windcrack is likely to be popular after a course and distance win last time out, whilst Fleurir was a runner-up and won three starts ago. Own Accord was also a runner-up last time and has won two of her last five. Powdering was last home of 11 at Ascot on her last outing, but had finished 131114 in her previous six starts, so a return to form can't be discounted. Crystal Casque made the frame in two of her last three but has 2 wins and 5 further places from 12 runs here at Sandown and her recent place stats stack up well...

...whilst higher draws (Fleurir & Dreamrocker from above?)

...and frontrunning seem to be the order of the day

...ticking another box for Fleurir...

So, Instant Expert, pace and draw all point to (4) Fleurir, so she's a pick here. I like (3) Crystal Casque from Instant Expert and also due to her great record at this venue (a win & 4 places from 7 over C&D) and whilst I could make a case for a few of these, I don't want to go too deep, so I'll just take (6) Dreamrocker who ticks boxes on Instant Expert and the draw, plus she has a win and two places from her last four outings.

Leg 6 : 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 1m2f

Carnival Day is the only one to have won last time out, but plenty of these have some good recent results. High Point is two from three, LTO runner-up Salamanca Lad has three wins and two places from his last six, Miaswell has two wins and a place from four and the sole filly in the race, Niloufar has four wins and a runner-up finish from her last seven and is one to consider on form at what might be a big price.

Front runners have done well in similar past races here and that will be good news for the likes of High Point & Salamanca Lad...

...and Salamanca Lad's team love it here at Sandown...

...whilst Miaswell's jockey, Jason Watson is riding really well right now...

And I'm taking (1) High Point (pace/form), (2) Salamanca Lad (pace/form/stats) and (4) Miaswell (form/jockey) here for the finale.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 2 & 5

Leg 2: horses 6 & 11

Leg 3: horses 4 & 6

Leg 4: horses 2, 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 1, 2 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 5.45 Sandown
  • 6.00 Galway
  • 7.10 Galway
  • 7.55 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just four runners of possible interest...

...and with two of the four taking each other on in one of our 'free' races, let's head over for a quick look at the 7.55 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

...where both Organic and Dancingwithmyself come here on the back of a win with the former having won three of her last four and the latter is two from four.

Ciara Pearl has lost her last three, but did win three in a row before those defeats, Xiomara ia a four-race maiden, but has been the runner-up in tow of her three Flat races and Winterfair is one from six, having won on the A/W at Wolverhampton on just her second start.

I Love Paris produced her best effort to date when a runner-up (beaten by a short head) at Newbury recently, but she remans a maiden after nine attempts, whilst Worrals has been in the first three home in each of her last five starts, winning once, but Alvesta is another nine-race maiden.

Ciara Pearl actually drops three classes here and Winterfair is down a level too, but Organic steps up one class and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, as Worrals now has a first-time tongue tie in place. We should have no fitness issues as all eight have raced inside the last six weeks with bottom-weight Alvesta turned back out quickest 11 days after finishing 5th of 9 at Newmarket.

She's one of three maidens in the race and of her five rivals who have managed to win a race, Winterfair and Worrals are both yet to score over today's trip, whilst Winterfair's fifth place of ten runners here over 7f on debut back in September is the only time any of these have raced here at Sandown before.

As I suspected based on the above, we get more guidance/assistance from the the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from the win side of things...

...where despite there not being much data available, we can see who has performed better than the others.

Similar past races have favoured runners drawn highest with runners in stalls 6 and 7 winning most often...

From a tactics perspective, it appears that there's no huge advantage in any particular running style, but hold-up horses have won less often...

...and the pace/draw heat map seems to suggest that the draw has more relevance than the pace...

...but let's see how these runners normally approach their races and how they might fit into our pace/draw heat map, shall we...

Summary

Organic won last time out and has won three of her last four. She's one of just three to have won over today's trip and she sits firmly in the green on pace/draw having been drawn in stall 6, so all things considered, she'd be the one for me here.

Dancingwithmyself also won well last out and has a high draw, so she's probably gong to be the main challenge to Organic, whilst if I was to pick a third horse, I'd probably go with Ciara Pearl who was in great form at this level earlier in the season and now drops back down in class.

Only Bet365 had prices out at 4.45pm on Tuesday and here's how they looked...

No column tomorrow (Wednesday) as I'm away at a family funeral, but I'll be back Thursday for a Friday preview as normal.

Racing Insights, Friday 05/07/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.30 Cork
  • 4.50 Sandown
  • 5.30 Beverley
  • 6.50 Cork
  • 9.00 Haydock

...and I think I'll focus upon the 4.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Listed race for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed two miles on good/good to firm ground and here's how they're expected to line up...

Surprisingly for a race of this grade, none of this field won last time out, but Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion were runners-up in Class 2 handicaps, whiulst Trueshan was third here over course and distance in a Group 3 contest. Run For Oscar, Sleeping Lion and Miss Cynthia are the three without a win in their last four starts, having lost each of their last 10, 10 and 12 starts respectively with the latter still a maiden.

Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion's chances of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by the step up in calss, whilst Roberto Escobarr's debut for Ian Williams also sees him step up from Class 2.

9st 2lbs is the standard allotted weight here, but the two females, Miss Cynthia and Night Sparkle each receiv a 5lb allowance, but this still leaves Quickthorn 2lbs better off than Trueshan at the head of the ratings with Sleeping Lion worst off, rated some 19lbs inferior to Quickthorn.

All bar the two females have won over this trip already with both Quickthorn and Roberto Escobarr having won over course and distance...

Instant Expert suggests that Sleeping Lion had has trouble getting his nose in front on good/good to firm ground and further inspection shows that his best form has been on the A/W at Kempton and he has also performed better over shorter trips. Elsewhere no real cause for concern with the highest drawn trio looking like the ones to focus here, not withstanding the fact that Roberto Escobarr might well need the run after a six month break.

Those drawn highest have actually fared a little worse than par here over longer distances, but it's not a huge bias and the draw really shouldn't be the reason why a horse loses a race that's two miles long...

...but pace might be a different issue completely with this type of race suiting front runners more than the other running styles.

If we then look at how this field has raced in their last couple of outings...

...we're looking at the same three runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

Instant Expert and Pace profiling have both led us to Quickthorn, Trueshan and Roberto Escobarr. The latter looks the weakest of the trio and will probably need the run anyway, but might not bad for a small E/W punt at 14/1 with Bet365, but the first two home here really should be Quickthorn and Trueshan and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with the latter.

Trueshan and Quickthorn were the last two home of five in the Gr 3 Sagaro Stakes at the start of May with Trueshan 11 lengths clear of Quickthorn, despite carrying 7lbs more. They meet again on equal terms, so I'm with Trueshan here.

The bookies disagree, mind you, with Quickthorn currently 13/8 and Trueshan at 9/4.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 4.15pm Thursday

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 5-year course form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Sandown
  • 2.05 Sandown
  • 4.52 Hexham
  • 5.04 Chester
  • 5.20 York
  • 6.18 Leicester

...gives me a grand total of ten races to consider, the highest-rated of which is the 2.05 Sandown, but 16-runner handicaps really aren't my thing, so next best is the race before that one, the 1.30 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

Sole female in the race, Crystal Flyer was a winner last time out, as was bottom weight Prince Eric who completed a 53-day hat-trick albeit all over a mile on the A/W. Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer all finished third on their last outing, but the latter is a five-race maiden, whilst the rest of the field have all won at least once in their last six outings or less.

Von Baer has also been gelded during the seven-week break since his last run, whilst Mafnood wears first-time blinkers and both Break The Bank and Jayyash are visored for the first time here.

Only Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer raced at Class 3 last time out as Brioni, Crystal Flyer and Into Battle all drop down from Class 2 with Mr Monaco and Break The Bank stepping up from Class 4, whilst Prince Eric’s recent hat-trick was all at Class 5 on the A/W and he may find Class 3 turf action a tad more difficult.

Today will be handicap debut day for Crystal Flyer, whilst Mr Monaco and Into Battle have both only had one previous handicap outing, but the latter is the only runner in this fried to have won over a similar trip to this one and we’ve no previous course winners, according to Instant Expert, which initially doesn't give us much to work with...

...but a slight relaxing of the parameters proves more helpful...

...with most of the field having at lest one win and Prince Eric / Into Battle excelling at the trip, but a lack of wins doesn't always mean a horse has run poorly as the place stats below show...

...where Brioni looks like enjoying the conditions along with Mafnood. They both have three greens from going/class/course and distance, whilst Crystal Flyer and Into Battle have two greens, but I should stress that the sample sizes are so small that I wouldn't lean too heavily on these numbers.

The draw, however, might well have an important role to play and if we spilt the stalls into thirds, it looks like those drawn highest have a distinct advantage...

...although closer inspection of the stall by stall data would suggest that this advantage starts around halfway along the stalls in box 5...

If we then look at how those races above were won, it's a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told with no real clear benefit from any particular running style from a win perspective, although the further forward a horse has raced, the greater the chance of making the frame...

We can now also look at how the draw interacts with the pace and this is interesting and offers confirmation, because we've already said that higher drawn runners fare well and leaders go well from a place perspective, so this graphic shouldn't be a surprise...

...but it also suggests that five of the nine pace/draw combos all have a similar success rate, suggesting that there's no clearcut perfect profile and if we look at how this field has tended to run of late...

...which suggests that Brioni and Into Battle (possibly Von Baer) are the likely pace makers, whilst Mafnood downwards have the pick of the draw. Crystal Flyer had a change of tactic last time out and this proved successful, so she might be ridden the same way again and if so from stall 6, she may just about edge it on pace/draw.

Summary

This looks a pretty open contest and I think I could make a case for most of these, but the one that interests me most right now (5.15pm Friday) is the 13/2 Crystal Flyer. It's a bit of a gamble that she races up with the pace like last time, but that is reflected in the odds. She won quite cosily last time out, but drops in class here and her runner-up has won since won, so 13/2 might be generous here.

As for an E/W option, only Brioni (10/1), Break The Bank (10/1) and Von Baer (14/1) are at what I'd deem E/W odds and if pushed to put one forward, I'd side with Brioni who drops in class after a disappointing run last time ended a sequence of hime having one win and three further places from his first four career outings.

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.58 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Catterick
  • 6.25 Limerick
  • 6.55 Limerick
  • 7.37 Sandown

...but I think I'll ignore for various reasons (never bet on races that don't appeal) and look at whatever might be the day's highest-rated/most-valuable handicap. That actually turns out to be the 8.42 Sandown, a 12-runner, Class 3 (£9020 to the winner), 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Crack Shot and Hiromichi both won last time and they have both won three of their last six outings, whilst Navagio, Regheeb and Dragon Icon have all won twice in six or less. Excel Power is the only one without a win in seven starts, having suffered ten defeats on the bounce.

Three of the top four in the weights (Alzahir, Navagio and Dual Identity) drop in class here, as does bottom-weight Magic Memories who runs for the first time since the Moores changed the licence naming.

Classic might well need a run here today, as at 268 days since his last run, he's the only one without a run since the start of April, but he is one of just previous course winners, having won here over 7f last July. Dual Identity won a 1m2f handicap at a higher level here last September.

This pair of course winners are, however, amongst five (Alzahir, Regheeb & Al Rufaa being the others) yet to win over today's trip...

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, doesn't have masses of past relevant runs for this field, but does suggest that Classic, Crack Shot and Hiromichi might be best suited to the conditions. That said, there are few alarm bells ringing here, other than maybe Dual Identity's failure to win at the going and trip and Navagio's UK mark being much higher than his last win over in Ireland. If we then consider the place stats from those races above, it becomes more apparent about Dual Identity's dislike of this trip...

...which is unfortunate, because the other columns show he has ability, He's better at 1m2f where he has four wins and five further places from just thirteen starts, but it seems a mile is just on the sharp side for him. At this point, I'd probably remove a few of these from my calculations and just take the following runners forward...

I've arranged them in draw order, as I'm now going to see if any of them might be handed any kind of advantage from their stalls position, but our draw analyser says there's not a great deal in it, although those in stalls 5 and above have done slightly better for themselves...

Our pace analyser also says there's not a great deal in it pace-wise too, but that hold-up horses have fared worst of all...

...and that the optimum pace/draw combinations would be low-drawn runners in mid-division or leaders drawn centrally with high-drawn leaders also doing well...

We already know the draw, but from a pace perspective, here's how the field have approached their most recent races...

...and if they go that way today, then Crack Shot fulfils the role of low-drawn mid-division runner and Regheeb would be the high drawn leader.

Summary

For me, the best two horses in this race are Crack Shot and Hiromichi. Both are in good form, both won last time out, both scored well on Instant Expert. Hiromichi appears to be better drawn, but Crack Shot seems to have the better pace/draw make-up and just about shades it for me.

Crack Shot is the current (5pm Wednesday) 7/2 favourite with Bet365 and whilst I think he might just prevail, I must say there's not a great deal of value in those odds and a 9/1 E/W bet about Hiromichi might be a more viable option.

Regheeb also looked good on the pace/draw heatmap and this unexposed 4 yr old was only a length behind Hiromichi last time out, despite not having raced for over five months. He's entitled to come on for that run and he's 2lbs better off today, so he could push Hiromichi again today, making him also of E/W interest at 11/1, especially with most firms paying four places.

Racing Insights, Friday 26/04/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just one qualifier, but your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.23 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.40 Perth
  • 3.25 Cork
  • 5.35 Cork
  • 5.40 Chepstow

...with the best (on paper, at least!) of these being the 2.25 Sandown, a 7-runner, Group 3 Flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good ground and here's how they line up...

As you'd hope of a race of this standard, it looks very competitive and the bookies think (at 2pm Thursday) that it will be a tight 4-way affair here and I'm initially inclined to agree...

...my job, I assume, is to try and find which of the four ticks most boxes.

Checkandchallenge and Tasman Bay both won last time out, but the latter was winning for the first time after eight defeats and 'only' won a Class 3 handicap, so this is much tougher. The 'form' horse here is Okeechobee who has yet to finish outside of the first two home and was a Listed class runner-up last time out. Desert Hero has two wins and an LTO third place in the St Leger from his last three starts and all seven have won at least one of their last five.

Tasman Bay is the only one to have raced at Class 1 last time and at 19 days off, he's the quickest back onto the track. Okeechobee raced 25 days ago, but the others haven't been seen for 174 to 344 days, during which time Artistic Star, Desert Hero and Flying Honours were all gelded (this is Okeechobee's second run after the same op). Israr was a very good second of eight in an Ascot group 3 race on his last UK run back in October and now wears blinkers for the first time and if they go at a dawdle today, that might help Desert Hero late on, as he's denoted as a fast finisher.

Desert Hero is, however, the only one in the field yet to win at this trip although he has won over 1m1f. Two of the seven have won here at Sandown previously; Artistic Star won a Class 2 Novice race over course and distance almost a year ago, whilst Flying Honours scored over a much shorter 7f here in a Class 4 Novice contest back in July 2022. Israr, Okeechobee and Tasman Bay are yet to step foot on this track, as seen on Instant Expert...

...which shows the afore-mentioned Flying Honours in a really good light and looks best suited of the four market leaders. That said, Okeechobee has only one turf run to his name so far and that was a very comfortable Class 2 handicap success over today's trip.

The draw stats from previous similar races here at Sandown suggest that those drawn highest might fare best...

...but I am cautious about the effect of the draw over 1m2f with a small field, but if it bears true, Israr is the biggest beneficiary of the four principals here, although they occupy stalls 2, 4 and 5 so they're hardly spread out. Pace, however, is a different matter entirely and of the four expected to be in the mix, Okeechobee looks the most likely to set the pace, Flying Honours tends to run in mid-division with Desert Hero and Israr further back...

...although Desert Hero did lead four starts ago in what turned out to be his worst race to date, so I doubt he'll be up front here! If we look at back at those races we took the draw stats from, we're informed that leaders and especially prominent stalkers are the ones to be with...

...which probably gives a slight advantage to Okeechobee.

Summary

The market and I both think this is a four-horse race and of the four tightly grouped at the head of the market, I think I like Okeechobee best of the four, despite his inexperience on grass. He's had a recent run unlike the other three, brings the best set of results to the table and should be well suited by the pace of the race.

There's not much to choose between the other three, but if pushed to put them in order, I'd probably go Okeechobee / Israr / Desert Hero / Flying Honours, but that's not a tip!

Racing Insights, Friday 26/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.15 Sandown
  • 1.27 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...but I'm going elsewhere for today's race preview and plumping for one of the day's joint highest rated contests, the 3.35 Sandown, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground that will hopefully throw up some interesting E/W options from the following...

Issam, Spring Note and Clondaw Royale all won last time out. Chez Hans was a faller on his last run, having won each of his previous five, but an 878 day absence casts doubts on him here. Mullinaree has won four of his last seven, Lord of Cheshire os three from five and a runner-up LTO, Issam is two from three, as is East India Express, whilst Bashers Reflection is three from five.

So, plenty in decent nick, but top weight Jatiluwih is the only one without a win in seven, having been beaten in eleven on the bounce since a win at Cheltenham way back in November 2019. Last seen on New Year's Day finishing last of ten, he can join Chez Hans on my reject list, as can Robin's Dream who makes just a second handicap start some 382 days after his last run, when only third of four runners. Should he actually run here, it will be only his second outing since the end of May 2021, so he's likely to be rusty.

The two long-standing absentees aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last four to eight weeks. Of the ten still under consideration, three (Gytename, Sholokjack and Bashers Reflection) are down a class, whilst three others (Lord of Cheshire, Clondaw Royale (hcp debut today) & Havaila are up one class with four
(Mullinaree, Issam, Spring Note, & handicap debutant East India Express) having raced at this Class 3 level.

None of this field have won here at Sandown before, but only Sholokjack, Issam, Robin's Dream and Havaila (twice) have run here before, sharing just five appearances. Trip-wise, only Issam, East India Express and Robin's Dream are yet to win over a similar trip and we can assess going/class/course/distance records at a glance via Instant Expert...

...which despite a fair smattering of red, doesn't hold too many horror stories. Lord of Cheshire carries 10lbs more than his last win, but is in good nick. Spring Note is up 13lbs for cantering home 16 lengths clear last time, but won still have won comfortably off today's mark.

Despite the soft ground, I'd expect there to be quite a bit of early pace to this one, if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...with at least half of the field usually keen to get on with things. The danger, of course is that they can't all lead, so some might end up doing too much too soon. Sholokjack is a confirmed hold up despite leading early four starts ago. That's the only non hold-up run in his 10-race career so far and he fell that day too! he's probably he only real hold-up horse in the contest, yet our Pace Analyser suggests that this wouldn't be a bad tactic, as it's front-runners who have tended to struggle here...

Summary

If I'm honest, I don't expect the field to race to the pace chart above, after all they can't all be classed as prominent runners, unless they run in a pack, so I've gone back to Instant Expert and looked at the place stats to eradicate any runner with any red for going/class/course/distance...

...from which I think Spring Note and Issam are my best chances of finding a winner and Lord of Cheshire / Mullinaree the ones I expect to go off at a decent price and have a chance of making the frame with bookies paying four places.

The truth is that all eight have a decent chance of making the frame, but I can't suggest backing all eight, can I?

Spring Note was very impressive last time out and sauntered home well clear of the pack whilst Issam always seems to be there or thereabouts, rarely running a bad race. Lord of Cheshire has finished 11612 in his last five and should find this a little easier than the slog through heavy ground at Haydock he faced when a good second of eight conceding 17lbs to a horse completing a 37-day hat-trick. As for Mullinaree, he's likely to be a big price, but he relishes this trip and is only 2lbs higher than when completing a five-timer at Hexham last June.

Let's check the market...at 5.30pm Thursday, my quartet were best priced as follows, Spring Note 4/1, Issam 7/1, Lord of Cheshire 8/1 and Mullinaree at 28/1! I expected Spring Note to be around 3/1, so I'm very happy with 4's and with bookies paying four places, I think my other three are all worth considering as E/W options.

Racing Insights, Friday 08/12/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce five qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.15 Sedgefield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And from all of which, I'd say the best of the above races (on paper at any rate) for me to look at was the 3.00 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three miles on soft ground...

Huelgoat, Not Sure and Robyndzone all won last time out, whilst My Silver Lining and Animal were both runners- up. Only Planned Paradise is winless in six or more (nine to be precise!). Kapcorse has been off the track for 225 days now and might well need the run, although he does drop in class here. All his rivals have, however, had at least one run in the last month.

Via Dolorosa makes a yard debut for Sophie Leech and is up a class, as are Not Sure, Robyndzone and Animal, whilst top-weight Collectors Item wears cheekpieces for the first time. None of the field have won here at Sandown before, mind you just four have been here for a collective total of five runs with just one placed finish (Planned Paradise). As for the trip, that's a different story, as all bar Jet Plane, Huelgoat, Kapcorse and Planned Paradise have scored over s similar trip, and those who have won over fences at this distance are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where bottom-weight Planned Paradise looks arguably least suited to the task and Via Dolorosa might well be out of his depth at Class 3 from a win perspective, but he has made the frame in four of seven at this level...

...where Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone makes most appeal to me.

The pace stats from previous similar races look like this...

...an whilst there's not a great deal of data to work with, I think it's fair to suggest you want to be on a progressive type rather than one who is waited with. Based on their most recent outings...

...that would seem to steer us towards Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining.

Summary

Huelgoat, Not Sure, Robyndzone, My Silver Lining and Animal bring the best recent form to the table.
Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone mades most appeal to me from Instant Expert.
Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining were the takeaways from the pace stats.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining feature in all three lists and I fancy them to both make the frame here and possibly be the first two home. Of the others, Robyndzone also features three times, whilst Not Sure and Midnight Mary both feature twice.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining are currently (8.50pm UK time, 4.50pm here) both priced at 5/1. Not Sure is also 5/1 and that's too short for an E/W play for me, as is the 15/2 about Midnight Mary; she's a consistent placer, but I think the assessor has her held right now and I'd be wanting double digit odds about her.

I can, however, get 10's about Robyndzone, so he might not be a bad E/W bet after all.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/09/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.55 Sandown
  • 3.45 Yarmouth
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted one trainer in short-term form...

14-day form...

...but as In The Trenches runs in one of our 'free' races, I really should take a look at the 4.50 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground...

Star Ahoy and Born Ruler both won their last starts and the latter has two wins and two places from his last five. Miss Dolly Rocker won her penultimate race and has made the frame in all seven career outings. Featured horse In The Trenches is a four-race maiden, whilst Miller Spirit is 0 from 5.

A few of these are short of handicap experience with Goldsborough, Ashtanga, In The Trenches and Miss Dolly Rocker all having just their second crack, whilst LTO winner Star Ahoy is a handicap debutant today and like In The Trenches and bottom weight Outgun he steps up a class here.

New Dayrell and Miss Dolly Rocker both drop a class, but Goldsborough is down teo levels and sports a hood for the first time, Miller Spirit makes a debut in cheekpieces.

Both Born Ruler and New Dayrell have already won over course and distance, whilst Star Ahoy and Miss Dolly Rocker have won over 1m2f at Pontefract and Nottingham respectively. Born Ruler's win over track and trip was just five days ago and he's turned back out quickest here, but most of the field have raced in the last seven weeks. Star Ahoy has been off for ten weeks whilst Ashtanga/In The Trenches haven't been seen since early June and may need the run.

Born Ruler has never raced on good to soft, but his LTO win over course and distance gives him plenty of green on Instant Expert, albeit off just the one run under these conditions...

He does, however, bear a 6lb penalty for last week's win and New Dayrell is still 4lbs higher than his last win, three starts ago, despite being eased a couple of pounds today. His last two efforts off 79 were fairly lacklustre. We already knew that Miller Spirit was a 5-race maiden, so the above line of red was no surprise, but despite all his races being over similar trips to today, we can now see that he hasn't even made the frame yet...

...making him the first to be cut from my considerations even before we consider whether the draw will have much impact.

Our draw analyser would initially suggest that those drawn lowest would be best placed here...

...but when I look at the actual stall-by-stall data, I'm not entirely convinced that the bias is as strong as above...

...as the data has been skewed by what can only be an anomalous 0 from 37 for stall 6. There's no rhyme nor reason for one stall to have struggled like that and if we look at the PRB3 figures, stall 8 (Born Ruler) is deemed to be the best place to run from...

...so for me, the draw stats can only be described as inconclusive, which then places greater emphasis (and a hope for some help!) on the pace data, where our pace analyser says that this type of race can be won from anywhere in the pack, but that leaders fare best and the further forward you race, the better the chance of making the frame...

...which based on recent efforts suggests another big run from the ever-consistent Miss Dolly Rocker, who seeks to make it 8 places from 8 starts...

Summary

The one I liked best here was Born Ruler; he's in great form and has won recently over course and distance and the manner of his win last week suggested that he had plenty in hand. That said, this ground is softer than he has faced before and he is up 6lbs, which makes life tougher. In all likelihood, he's the one to beat here, but there's not a great deal of value/scope in Hill's early (4.30pm) 9/4 price tag. Ideally, I'd have managed to another half point from them, but maybe other firms will be a little more generous.

The softer conditions won't affect Miss Dolly Rocker, though; she was a good to soft ground runner-up last time out when unlucky to bump into a horse winning for the fourth time in eight starts. She drops in class here and will aim to add to a soft ground win two starts ago. She hasn't been out of the frame in any of her seven career outings and I fancy that to become eight here and at attractive odds of 13/2, I think she's worth a quid or two.

The frame should then be completed by the LTO winner, Star Ahoy, who currently shows at 4/1. He narrowly won over this trip last time out on ground that was a little softer than good and although up in class and weight, should still be on the premises. I can't back him at 4's, of course, but he should go well without the pressure of my money on his back!

Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 2.25 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Downpatrick
  • 4.25 Sandown
  • 4.30 Chester
  • 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 3.38 Sandown
  • 3.50 Beverley
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 4.45 Sandown
  • 5.45 Chelmsford

The Sandown race from the free list is the highest rated of the races above, but 2yo contests really aren't my bag, but the preceding race on that card is the 'next best'. The in-form Beckett/Ryan trainer/jockey combo team up with Lord Protector and although the field is a little bigger than I'm comfortable with, there's the prospect of some E/W action with most bookies paying four places (some go five) in the 3.00 Sandown, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (after 18yds rail movement) on good to firm ground...

Somewhat surprisingly for a big field in a decent standard of handicap, none of these runners even made the frame last time out and only Eagle's Way (4 wins), Lord Protector (1), Andaleep (1), Kitsune Power (1), Skysail (2) and Baltic Voyage (1) have landed any of their last six contests.

The entire field bar Great Max (who debuts for Michael Bell here), Dashing Roger and Skysail have however previously won over today's trip, whilst Lord Protector, Andaleep and Dual Identity are former course and distance winners. Dashing Roger has also won here at Sandown, landing a one mile, Class 3 handicap here in late May 2021.

All bar Groundbreaker have raced in the last seven weeks, but at 86 days, even he shouldn't be too rusty here after a recent wind op. Dashing Roger drops down a class today afteer being well beaten in a Group 2 at Ascot, but Stay Well, Great Max and Skysail are all up from Class 3, but the latter (along with Baltic Voyage) does at least get a 6lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

Instant Expert says that Andaleep should relish conditions here...

...even if he is winless at Class 2. Plenty of his rivals (inc Certain Lad, Lord Protector, Stay Well & Dashing Roger) have a string of defeats at this level and Certain Lad also has a poor win record over today's trip, but he is now 7lbs lower than his last win, whilst most of his rivals are still running off higher marks than their on last successes, although Dashing Roger's last Flat win was off 14lbs higher than today's mark. That said, that win was over two years ago and he's finished 070700537 since.

As I might be looking for an E/W pick today, let's have a quick look at the place stats before considering any possible effects of pace/draw...

...where the following are of the most obvious immediate interest...

...not withstanding Kitsune Power's relatively weak record in this grade. He's drawn low in stall 4 here and although 1m2f is plenty of distance to undo a good/bad draw, those drawn lowest have seemed to have a slight advantage...

I wouldn't say that the draw bias was big enough to persuade/dissuade me when it comes to a selection, so I suspect/hope the pace stats offer me more assistance...

Those paint a much clearer picture of what might be required her with those racing prominently or leading winning 68% of the races from less than 35% of the runners and also faring better on the places. Hold-up horses have really struggled here in the past, which doesn't look like great news for Kitsune Power and Dual Identity if their last few races are anything to go by...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with Lord Protector and Eagle's Way the one making most appeal.

Summary

This is a poor contest for a Class 2 handicap in my opinion with the field only having made the frame a combined 18 times from 91 Class 2 races, a pretty poor strike rate of 19.78%, with only 6 (6.6%) wins. It's a Class 3 race in all but name and on that basis alone, that's another tick for Lord Protector and Eagle's Way, who also made most appeal on the pace/draw heat map.

Eagle's Way was also one of the ones I highlighted on Instant Expert and with four wins and a runner-up finish from his last six outings, he's the one to beat here in my opinion. He's currently 7/1 with Corals and appears to be drifting, so he might even become an E/W pick. Lord Protector is a full point shorter in the market and although I expect him to go well, I don't tend to place E/W bets at 6/1, so he'd need to drift too for me to get involved.

If I was to highlight any of the double-digit odds runners who might run better than their price, I'd probably suggest the likes of Certain Lad and Andaleep at 16's and 14's respectively and they might be reasonable E/W punts if your bookie is paying five places.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/08/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.55 Redcar
  • 6.40 Galway
  • 7.15 Galway
  • 7.27 Sandown
  • 8.12 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with two of the in-form yards above both having a runner in the same race from our daily free list, it makes sense to see how Balboa and Roost might get on against six other runners in the 7.27 Sandown, a Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on good to soft ground, The track is already softer in places and more rain is forecast for this group...

Kyle of Lochalsh and Alhambra Palace were both last time winners, whilst top-weight and sole female in the race Grand Providence seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins. Elsewhere Cavern Club and Enochdhu both won four starts ago, but Royal Deeside and our two featured runners, Roost and Balboa, are all five-race maidens.

Royal Deeside also runs for the second time in handicap company and Roost runs for the first time since being gelded during a 78-day absence : all his rivals have raced in the last month or so. Kyle of Lochalsh is the only class mover here, stepping up one level after getting off the mark at Newbury three weeks ago and bottom weight/featured horse Balboa makes a yard debut for Milton Harris almost three weeks after finishing 5th of 11 over course and distance on the last of his five (all unplaced) runs for Jamie Osborne.

The field have only won 8 of their combined 47 outings (17% SR) with no course nor distance wins, but they have made the frame on 15 (31.9%) of their runs to date, so we might glean a little more from the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from a win perspective...

The field haven't raced in the wet too often, but both Alhambra Palace and Cavern Club have shown some ability to deal with good to soft ground, whilst Roost and Enochdhu probably won't mind if more rain does come. The latter, however, has yet to make the frame in five starts at Class 4, wheras Cavern Club has a win and two places from his five efforts. No course or distance winners, of course, but Kyle of Lochalsh did win over 1m5½f at Newbury last time out and if conditions make this a slog, then Grand Providence's win over 2m½f on her last start might well come in to play.

Cavern Club wouldn't be an obvious pick here, but his place stats are decent enough and he's drawn in stall 1 giving him the rail to help keep him straight. Somewhat surprisingly, albeit off a really small data sample, there's actually a hint of a draw bias at play here, with low draws (especially stalls 1 & 2) doing better than expected...

...although I do still think that a horse's chances of winning a race over 1m6f shouldn't really be decided by which of eight stalls he/she breaks from and that race tactics aka pace would be more of a determining factor and if I look back at that small sample of races above, it looks like those runners who race prominently just off the leader(s) would be the type of horse you'd want to be with...

...and based on the way this relatively inexperienced field have approached their races so far, I'd expect Enochdhu and Balboa to set the pace here wit the likes of Roost, Kyle of Lochalsh and Grand Providence being the stalking horses waiting to pick them off...

Summary

I suspect this race will run to form and that the three LTO winners will be the ones to focus on here. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, I'd had no odds available to discuss, but I'd imagine that Alhambra Palace might well go off quite short without offering too much value and that the one to side with could be Kyle of Lochalsh. He's drawn low, will race prominently, should get the trip and won well last time out. Hopefully I can get somewhere near the 5/1 mark about him when the markets open.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/07/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Bath
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 5.55 Bath
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 8.10 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated plenty of runners from a couple of in-form yards and have also picked out a trainer with a good long-term track record...

 

It's a pretty poor day of racing if truth be told with 5 UK courses holding 31 races with none rated any higher than Class 4. Thankfully one of those appears on our list of free races, so let's have a look at the 8.10 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

A pretty inexperienced bunch here, as you might expect from a group of 3 yr olds. They've raced a total of 46 times so far, making the frame on 14 occasions (30.4%) and winning 7 times (15.2%). Gozo, Stage Show and Zodiac Star are still maidens after 6, 6 and 4 attempts respectively, from which Stage Show has never even made the frame.

Conversely, Morcar won last time out and Gallant Lion comes in search of a hat-trick after wins at Brighton and Newbury in the past month. Two of the maidens, Zodiac Star & Gozo should be assisted by dropping down towo classes here, the third maiden, Stage Show, actually steps up a grade here, as do our two LTO winners, Morcar and Gallant Lion.

Dumfires drops down a class for what will be his second handicap run, as it will also be for Golspie and LTO winner Morcar, whilst Zodiac Star makes a handicap debut here and wears a hood for the first time, whilst Golspie sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Six of the nine runners have already won at least one race (only Gallant Lion has won twice!), but none have won here at Sandown before (Dancing In Paris & Stage Show are the only ones to have raced here), but both of Gallant Lion's victories have been over today's trip, as was Morcar's success LTO.

Dumfries might well need a run after a break of almost 16 weeks, but the remainder of the field have all seen action in the last six weeks with both Gozo and Gallant Lion having raced in the last fortnight. In addition to the other facts, Instant Expert tells us that six of the field have raced on good ground before, generating two wins, whilst Golspie is the only one of the six previous Class 4 flat runners to have won at this grade...

None of these have really raced enough to give too many causes for concern, but the fact that Stage Show has yet to make the frame after six efforts has to be noted. Dancing In Paris has a weak record at Class 4, but does like good ground and the vast majority of the field should be fine with the trip. Dancing In Paris is now 9lbs higher than his last win and is only rated 1lb lower than his last run, which saw him beaten by more than ten lengths, so that's got to raise doubts here. Morcar and Gallant Lion are up 8lbs and 7lbs respectively for their LTO wins, but both (especially Morcar) won relatively comfortably, so might not yet be anchored by the weight.

It would be easy to assume from the draw sectors, that those drawn highest would have a distinct advantage here...

...but I'd temper those thoughts by (a) pointing to the place stats, which are pretty consistent across the board, (b) showing you the stall-by-stall data, which looks a bit skewed in places and (c) reproducing the PRB3 data...

There may well be a bit of a flat spot around the data for stalls 4 & 5 that is overcompensated by the number of wins from stalls 6 & 7, but I'm not entirely convinced the draw is going to make or break a runner's chances here over 1m2f on good ground. That can't necessarily be said for race/race tactics, as there's a clear template for how to win such races...

...and that involves getting out quickly and leading. The way this field have raced in their relatively short careers would tend to suggest that Gallant Lion might struggle to land the hat-trick here...

Summary

Despite the pace chart above, I do think that the LTO winners Gallant Lion and Morcar are the horses to beat here and it's no surprise to see them installed as early (3.40pm) 3/1 joint favourites. Morcar won far more comfortably than Gallant Lion last time out and does appear to have a better pace profile, so if pushed to pick between the two, I'd be looking for Morcar to just edge Gallant Lion out.

Referring back to the pace chart, all Band of Steel's decent efforts have been on the A/W, he has shown little on turf and Dancing In Paris is too high in the weights, as I suggested earlier. Zodiac Star, however, might well improve for a step up in trip and he is down two classes here and might well be of E/W interest, especially as he's effectively 4lbs lower than LTO. You can get 10/1 about him at the moment and that might not be a bad shout. Similar applies to Golspie at 14's, he won on his debut and is very lightly raced. There's a touch of the unknowns about him, but he wouldn't have to do too much to get involved here in what looks a mediocre field.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/07/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.55 Doncaster
  • 3.40 Sandown
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 5.55 Bellewstown
  • 6.40 Haydock
  • 8.10 Beverley

...where the second of the two Sandown contests is a competitive-looking, small field, Class 1 contest, so let's look at the 4.15 Sandown, a 5-runner, Listed flat race for horses aged 3 and above. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the field...

All five actually raced against each other last time out and that was in the Listed Wolferton Stakes over this trip at Royal Ascot seventeen days ago, where Saga was well clear of the others...

...beating Notre Belle Bete and Certain Lad by 7.5 and 8.5 lengths respectively with Poker Face and Savvy Victory a further 2 and 17.25 lengths back. That doesn't however tell the full story as only Saga really ran his own race and benefited from the three lowest drawn runners finishing in the first five home. Certain Lad and Savvy Victory were both hampered, although odds of 50/1 and 100/1 suggest they were never winning.

So, none won last time out, but Notre Belle Bete won three starts ago, Poker Face won the first three of his six outings to date and Savvy Victory won seven starts ago. Certain Lad last won eight races back and Saga's sole win from eleven efforts came on just his third appearance 22 months ago.

All five have, however, won over this trip, but none have raced here at Sandown before and they all raced in this grade 17 days ago!

CERTAIN LAD won a Group 3 contest on good to soft ground at York in August 2020 and ended his 2022 campaign with a decent third of ten in a Haydock Group 3 event. he returned to action in May of this year after 279 days off to run a creditable 3rd in a soft ground Class 2 handicap at Chester prior to his run in the Wolferton, where he was badly hampered.

NOTRE BELLE BETE started 2022 with a sequence reading 11913, but then lost his way under increasing weight before the addition of cheekpieces in November seemed to spark a renaissance and prior to the Wolferton LTO, his form in the cheekpieces read 22313, including winning a valuable Class 2 handicap at Newcastle on Good Friday. Transferring that form to the turf would be useful, but he is 0 from 15 on the Flat as opposed to 4 from 8 on the A/W.

POKER FACE is a lightly-raced (6 starts) 4 yr old who won his first three outings (2 x C5 & 1 @ C4), before a six month break last winter. He returned to action in April and was only headed inside the final furlong of the Gr3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket, eventually finishing second. He faded late on next time out too, when trying to win a Gr2 at Chester from the front and has only raced at Royal Ascot since.

SAGA has made the frame in five of his ten Flat runs, but has only won a 7f, Class 3 maiden so far. That said, he only just failed (by a head) to win the 30-runner Britannia Stakes at Ascot a year ago and went down by the same margin at Newmarket in another Class 2 heritage handicap two starts ago. that was his first run for seven months and then ran really well at Ascot last time out, taking advantage of the low draw.

SAVVY VICTORY won over today's trip last April & August and was a length and a half clear of Certain Lad at Chester in May, when finishing second of nine at Chester, although Certain Lad was racing for the first time in over nine months. He was badly hampered in the Wolferton last time out, but has no real Class 1 form and arguably the weakest here on paper.

There is a suggestion that the course might dry out a little so for our view of Instant Expert, I've included form for both Good ground as well as Good/Good to Soft...

Notre Belle Bete's figures were always going to be poor, as he's 0 from 15 on turf, so we'll check the place stats shortly and the field's lack of success at Class 1 confirms my belief that is only Class 2 standard. Three of these have at least won on good to soft and Savvy Victory probably won't want it to dry out. Those place stats I mentioned look like this...

...suggesting that most of them will be happy if the groundstaff continue to water the track as they have been doing and based on the above, Poker Face probably edges the race for a place. As you'd expect with such a small field, there's no real advantage to be gained from the draw...

...although those drawn higher tend to make the frame more often and the PRB3 data points towards the higher draw again...

...so that's more good news for Poker Face. The pace breakdown of those races above show that hold-up horses are at a disadvantage here...

...with those racing further forward more likely to fill the frame. Sadly there's not much early pace in this field based on recent evidence and it might well be left to Poker Face to set the fractions again, as he did at Chester recently...

...whilst our pace/draw heat map seems to everyone a chance here, although Saga looks worst off...

Summary

I expect a cagey affair here with no real pace angle and a look at the market at 4pm had Saga as the 5/4 favourite some way clear of next best Poker Face at 11/4. Poker Face is the one that has ticked most boxes for me during my analysis and I'd much rather back a horse at 11/4 who has two decent group runs behind him than a 5/4 fav who is 1 from 10 on the turf. Obviously, if this pans out like the Wolferton did, then it's Saga's race to win/lose, but I'd rather side with Poker Face here.