Thursday's pick was...
6.30 Southwell : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4 (Pressed leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven and headed 2f out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck)
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG
...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on currently Good To Soft ground worth £9,384 to the winner...
Just the sixth start for this 5 yr old gelding, but he hasn't been out of the first three home yet, including one win. He was third last time out at Aintree, having faded out of contention late on, but that's excusable as it was (a) his chase debut, but jumped well enough, (b) his comeback from 40 weeks off track and (c) over a trip 4.5 furlongs longer than today.
He should come on for trying the fences for a first time and also for having had a run to clear the pipes. Indeed, trainer Tom Lacey's NH handicappers seem to go well after a recent run, as since the start of 2017, those with just one prior run in the previous 90 days have gone on to win 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 37.6pts (+99% ROI) and whilst there are just 38 such runners, I don't think that their success is pure coincidence, when you consider that the following are applicable today...
- 11/34 (32.4%) for 41.6pts (+122.4%) from 5-8 yr olds
- 10/25 (40%) for 27.15pts (+108.6%) at 6/4 to 15/2 odds
- 9/25 (36%) for 21.6pts (+86.5%) from his only runner at that track that day
- 9/25 (36%) for 20.55pts (+82.2%) at 21-45 dslr
- 8/15 (53.3%) for 45.4pts (+302.6%) after finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO
- 7/13 (53.8%) for 43.8pts (+336.8%) on Good to Soft / Soft
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 24.7pts (+190.2%) dropping in trip
- 5/15 (33.3%) for 12.3pts (+82%) in November/December
- 3/5 (60%) for 17.1pts (+342.5%) on Good to Soft
- 3/5 (60%) for 7.3pts (+146%) in December
- 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.82pts (+85.2%) were 3rd LTO
- and 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%) at Class 3
Now, I'm not going to combine the above into a composite angle, as I fear it would dilute an already small sample size too much, but I do want to re-visit the third item on that list ie Tom Lacey's only runner at a track, because since the start of 2016, when sending just one out to a track, he is 54/177 (30.5% SR) for 119.7pts (+67.6% ROI) in handicaps contests.
He also sends just one chaser to Exeter today (Kateson in the 1.30), but that's a non-handicap contest, so with today's race in mind, those 177 solo travellers are...
- 49/128 (38.3%) for 115.7pts (+90.4%) at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
- 43/136 (31.6%) for 102.8pts (+75.6%) from males
- 27/72 (37.5%) for 88pts (+122.3%) from 5 yr olds
- 20/55 (36.4%) for 54pts (+98.2%) in the final quarter of the year
- 17/53 (32.1%) for 49pts (+92.5%) at Class 3
- 15/40 (37.5%) for 12.8pts (+32%) from chasers
- and 9/25 (36%) for 22.05pts (+88.2%) in December...
...whilst 5 yr old males sent off at 5/4 to 8/1 from October to December inclusive are 11 from 17 (64.7% SR) for 32.2pts (+189.6% ROI) including 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 7.93pts (+99.1%) in December...
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (10/3) and a whole host of others at 3/1 (some BOG, most not until morning) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!