Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/02/22 geegeez.co.uk

It's Valentine's Day on Tuesday and I'm just back off a long/heavy weekend, so I'm not exactly feeling the love. Hopefully the racing will provide a spark for me and The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Hoganville & Statu of Liberty are of obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

3.00 Lingfield
3.55 Ayr
7.30 Newcastle

Both of the interesting Shortlist horses run in 'free' races, so let's quickly see if either are worth backing, starting with Hoganville in the 3.55 Ayr, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 3m on good to soft ground...

HOGANVILLE arrived from Ireland last summer with a 0 from 9 record for Paul Nolan in Ireland, but he has since finished 1113 in his four starts for George Bewley with his second win coming over course and distance in late October. This run of form took his mark from 96 to 112 and he was beaten by 13 lengths in to third last time out under today's weight; a mark that might ask a little too much of him. He'd had a month's rest, though, so who knows?

Instant Expert suggests that he's one of the few who should relish the conditions...

...and those four at the top may well be where the winner comes from in a race that in the past has rewarded those getting on with it more than those who want to be waited with...

This field's recent races have looked like this...

...and of the four from Instant Expert, I'd have to omit hold-up horse Nicandeasy, leaving me with Apple Away, Hoganville & Leostar to consider in my summary later.

Race 2 sees top-weight Statu of Liberty make just a second handicap run in the 7.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard to slow polytrack...

STATU OF LIBERTY was a winner here in a 6f maiden three starts ago for Brian Meehan, but finally made her handicap debut at Southwell last time out almost four weeks ago. That was her seventh career run and first for new handler Michael Dods, but could only finish 6th of 7, beaten by almost 4.5 lengths.

She's down in trip and has been eased 3lbs by the assessor, but she'd still have room to improve if she wants to win here. That said, she's the main eye-catcher in another sea of red on Instant Expert...

...where Colors of Freedom also has some good numbers, especially over this trip. Based on recent outings...

I'd imagine the field will have chase to Statu of Liberty down to win, as she appears to be one most likely to set the tempo of the contest in a race that has favoured front runners in the past...

So far so good for Statu, then and the draw has her in stall 2 with only Tantalus inside her, but sadly the higher drawn runners have done much better here...

...but pace is more important than draw here over a straight 5f, as shown by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

In race 1, we got it down to Apple Away, Hoganville & Leostar and they're priced at 5/2, 6/1 and 8/1 , from which only Leostar is worth backing E/W (keep an eye out for firms paying 4 places). All three are capable of making the frame, but if pushed for the winner, I'd fancy Apple Away to 'pip' (sorry!) the other two.

As for the evening contest at Newcastle, Statu of Liberty has plenty going for her, but I do fancy the top two in the market Sugar Hill Babe (5/2) and the 11/4 Colors of Freedom to beat her, but Statu currently trades at 9/1, so is of E/W interest.

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