Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/06/23

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Con Te Partiro of obvious immediate interest. As usual we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

• 4.03 Leicester
• 5.20 Southwell
• 6.45 Lingfield
• 7.30 Wolverhampton

Class 4 racing is as good as it gets and with one of our shortlist horses running in one of our free races, I'm going to take a quick look at the 5.20 Southwell, where Lipa K will take on just five rivals in a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5f (after a 138yd rail movement) on good ground...

ELHAM VALLEY has made the frame in both starts (both here at Southwell) since moving yards and was only beaten by a head last time out just three weeks ago, but hasn't won a race beyond 2m2½f, so this might stretch him.

BELVEDERE BLAST has won over 2m4½f in the past, but looked decidedly rusty when a further three places and over 20 lengths behind Elham Valley's runner-up run here three weeks ago. In his defence, he hadn't raced for seven months and dis win three on the bounce in the first 17 days of June last year after a five-month break

COPPER BEACH hasn't been seen since a 17 length defeat last November at Wetherby and has won just once in fourteen career starts, but that was at 2m4f, which is a positive. Had has a wind op during the lay-off, but other make more appeal.

THE BIG LENSE has struggled for consistency over the last year, either running well or failing to finish (1P3F2) Was only beaten by a head over today's course and distance four weeks ago, though, when headed late on by the re-opposing Pozo Emery and this pair should be closely matched again.

LIPA K comes here on a hat-trick after winning both his efforts over fences, but whilst he runs off the same mark (110) as his last chase win a week ago, that's 4lbs higher than his last hurdles mark and despite winning back to back races over hurdles in March/May 2023, his hurdles form since then reads 535F.

POZO EMERY finished 1122 in four starts for Paul Nicholls during the 20/21 season, but his form for Laura Morgan prior to a course and distance win (beating The Big Lense) read PP3243, so he's not a shoo-in to confirm the placings from that win and is up 3lbs here.

Instant Expert says...

...that most of these have struggled to win Class 4 hurdle races with Pozo Emery the pick of the pack on the above data. The Big Lense looks particularly weak on win form and the data for Lipa K serves to remind us that Instant Expert and The Shortlist are two different reports even if they look similar! Lipa K's figures look better when you look at all NH races, as he's just gone 2 from 2 over fences.

If we then look at the place stats for those races above...

...Pozo Emery still stands out as the one most likely to relish the conditions, whilst most of the runners look half-backable now. Lipa K, however, has a dismal Class 4 hurdling record at 831535F and is 7lbs higher than his last win over these obstacles. He's also highly likely to send much of the race towards the back of the field with The Big Lense whilst the pace will probably come from Pozo Emery and/or Elham Valley if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

...and our pace analyser suggests that horses who lead here tend to get swallowed up by the chasing pack with all other running styles faring better...

Summary

Having won his last two, I imagined Lipa K would be popular and indeed he is; bet365 have him as the 5/4 fav at 4.30pm on Monday, but that doesn't excite me if I'm honest. He's 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win, his two wins were over fences and his recent hurdling form has been patchy plus he has a poor record at Class 4. He's certainly got momentum, but 5/4 represents no value to me.

With that in mind, I'm more interested in the closely-matched The Big Lense and Pozo Emery and with the latter up 3lbs and seemingly less suited by the pace profiling, The Big Lense would be my marginal preference of the two and their closeness is mirrored by bet365 offering 5/1 about each of them.