Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/03/23

Hi guys, I'm back from Istanbul and ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

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HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.15 Newcastle
  • 3.25 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 4.35 Lingfield

And as one of the top five on The Shortlist is also running in one of our 'free' races, we should see how top-weight Burrows Diamond might get on in the 3.15 Newcastle, a competitive-looking, five-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7½f on good to soft ground that is good in places. The forecast is sunny and dry, so the track might quicken slightly for these...

None of these won LTO, but Glittering Love was a runner-up, beaten by just a head, whilst only featured horse Burrows Diamond and Donna's Double have won any of their last five outings. Glittering Love now steps up in class, however, but Burrows Diamond and The Ferry Master both drop down a level.

The latter now wears a visor for the first time and is the only course and distance winner in the field. Burrows Diamond has won here over 2m4½f and proved her stamina with a 3m½f win at Wetherby, whilst Frenchy du Large has won at neither track nor trip.

Donna's Double has never won beyond 2m4½f (Ayr) but had bumper and hurdles wins here over 2m½f and Glittering Love has won over 3m½f on a couple of occasions, but is yet to win here at Newcastle, as seen below...

Burrows Diamond, as expected, looks the standout on Instant Expert, albeit at 7lbs higher than her last win. Frenchy du Large looks relatively consistent if unspectacular. Donna's Double has little handicap experience, but does have a couple of non-hcp course wins to his name. The Ferry Master ticks a few boxes and has won over course and distance, but is probably better suited to Class 4 racing, whilst Glittering Love's place form is very interesting for a horse that really doesn't win often enough.

BURROWS DIAMOND produced two really good efforts in December at this grade to win at Wetherby (3m½f, soft) and then be a runner-up at Doncaster (3m, good) four weeks later. Not at her best at Uttoxeter next/last time out, but she was up in class that day. Back at Class 3 here and eased a pound, this should be more to her liking.

FRENCHY DU LARGE won a pair of 2m4f chases either side of Christmas 2021, but has raced just four times in the last year, falling twice and then going down by 22 lengths, before finishing third of five last time out and has yet to win in four starts beyond 2m5½f.

DONNA'S DOUBLE won on bumper debut, won on novice hurdle debut and won on handicap chase debut. The latter was in early January and he was raised 4lbs for that win, but could only manage 6th of 8 next/last time out. He has obvious potential but I'd say he'd want a shorter race on softer ground, but remains unexposed.

THE FERRY MASTER is the sole C&D winner, but that was back in November 2020 and he's 0 from 11 since; a run of form that has seen his mark slip from 134 to today's 117 and that speaks volumes. He should be able to win off this mark, but haiving been well beaten in his last five, it'd be a surprise if he did well.

GLITTERING LOVE has a decent record over fences, with 5 wins and 5 further places from 16 efforts and was only beaten by a head at Kelso last time out. He's up in class and weight here and isn't getting any younger at the age of 11, but he could go well here with the drop in trip possibly helping.

Based on their recent outings, I'd expect Frenchy du Large to be setting the pace with feature horse Burrows Diamond happy to sit back and let things unfold for a while...

...but past similar contests have favoured those likeliest to 'get on with things'...

Summary

For me, other than a pace disparity, feature horse Burrows Diamond ticks all the boxes and I think she's the one to beat. With such a small field, there's a real chance of  the race being falsely run, which play into the hands of those who tend to finish well and on that basis, plus the other positives about her, I'd suggest that 10/3 about Burrows Diamond might be a decent price.

As for the others, pace-setter Frenchy du Large might well hold on and looks big at 7/1, so he could be E/W material, but it's equally likely that if Burrows Diamond pulls through the pack later on. that he drags perennial placer Glittering Love along with her for the runner-up spot.

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