Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/08/24

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with two runners to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

• 2.15 Lingfield
• 6.30 Hamilton
• 7.00 Hamilton

...so it makes sense to me for us to look at Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist and the 7.00 Hamilton in general. It's an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on soft ground...

FORM : Giselles Defence won last time out and has won 2 of his last three and has 3 wins and 2 places from his last seven. Lunario comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six. Our featured runner Good Morning Alex has won has last three and is 4 from 5 and is 6 from his last 8.

Stand Strong is a 3-race maiden despite making the frame in each of his races, whilst Theoryofeverything is the only other runner without a win in his last five outings, having been beaten in all nine outings since scoring on debut at Doncaster just over 14 months ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers today, as only the afore-mentioned Theoryofeverything raced at Class 3 last time out. Six runners (Arctic Mountain, Indemnity, Tele Red, Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) step up from Class 4, whilst Stand Strong, Giselles Defence & Lunario all step up from Class 5. Only Paddy the Squire ran at a higher level last time out, finishing as a Class 2 runner-up.

AGE/WEIGHT : the bottom three on the card (Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) are all aged 3 and receive an 8lb allowance for that.

WHAT'S NEW : Paddy The Squire runs for the first time since a wind op and Stand Strong makes a handicap debut and yard debut today on his first run since being gelded.

LAST SEEN : Most of the field have raced in the last 10 to 33 days, but Arctic Mountain (60d) & Good Morning Alex (68d) have had a couple of months rest, whilst it's almost a year (354 days to be precise) since Paddy the Squire was last in action and the thick end of 22 months since Stand Strong lined up.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Seven runners have raced here a total of nine times with Good Morning Alex winning both starts here and Lunario is 1 from 1. As for the 1m1f trip, four runners have a combined 1 win from 5 attempts with Good Morning Alex the sole winner, as his two wins here were at 1m½f and then over this course and distance.

Instant Expert shows those course/distance wins I mentioned above and it's good to see that most of those who have tackled soft ground have managed to make the frame with five of them going on to win. Theoryofeverything looks vulnerable at Class 3 and Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence are all rated at least 7lbs higher than their last win...

Whilst some of these stood out on form, the field looks quite open based on those graphics above, so let's look and see if the draw might be a factor today...

It doesn't seem to have a huge draw bias, runners in stall 1 have struggled, as have those drawn 10 or higher, but the majority of stalls have similar results to each other and it's probably going to be the pace that is the deciding factor here, as horses willing to crack on with things have had the most success...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could be more good news for Good Morning Alex...

...and they might well go off at a fair old lick today with no real hold-up types in the race. A 4-race pace average of 2.25 is rarely the lowest score in a race of this many runners and if I was relying on that pace chart above and discounting the runners in stalls 1, 10 & 11 based on the draw stats, I'd be looking at...

...from pace/draw, but I'd be very wary about Stand Strong after such a long absence.

Summary

From pace/draw, I'd consider Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain, Lunario and Bubbles Wonky, whilst on form, it would be Giselles Defence, Lunario and our featured runner Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist.

So I'm having Good Morning Alex and Lunario as two of my three for the frame. Bubbles Wonky hasn't ran well in his last three outings, so I'll overlook him, which leaves me with a choice between Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence as my third runner and whilst there's not much between them, I suspect we'll have more chance of getting an E/W bet out of Giselles Defence, so that where I'll go.

The market looked like this at 4.45pm Monday...

...which means that Lunario is also in E/W territory for me.