Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/07/23 geegeez.co.uk

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Al Zaraqaan and Hiconic would be of obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

3.20 Southwell
6.38 Ballinrobe
7.50 Chelmsford
8.50 Chelmsford

The two at the top of The Shortlist are both likely to go off quite short in small field contests (4 of Southwell's 6 races have less than 7 runners!), so we'll head to Essex for the 7.50 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a left handed 1m2f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win any of their last two races, but Wild Hurricane and Totnes made the frame last time out whilst Boasty, One For The frog, Mayfair Gold, Semser and The Bay Warrior were all successful three starts ago.

Semser, Jenson Benson, Nasim, Marion's Boy and Wadacre Gomez all step up a class here, whilst The Bay Warrior makes a double step up, which might cause him issues after a poor Class 6 run over course and distance last time out. Likely favourite Totnes, however, was third in a Class 3 contest on her most recent start. She's also one of just two 3yos in the race and as such, gets a handy 9lbs weight allowance, as does Wadacre Gomez.

Wild Hurricane makes just a second appearance in handicap company and wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst it's a debut in a hood for Mayfair Gold, who like Tarbaan, Boasty, Semser, Jenson Benson and The Bay Warrior, is a former course and distance winner. Of the other six runners, Nasim has won here over a mile, whilst Marion/s Boy and Wadacre Gomez have been scored over 1m2f at Lingfield and Newcastle respectively.

Jenson Benson returns from almost eleven weeks off and The Bay Warrior hasn't raced for almost fourteen weeks, but the other ten have all been seen since the start of June with Nasim and Wadacre Gomez having run just a fortnight ago.

In addition to the course/distance wins mentioned above, Instant Expert advises us that field doesn't have a particularly good record on standard to slow A/W and that only five of them have a Class 4 A/W win...

I'd say that Tarbaan edges that, but despite the swathe of red, there aren't too many causes for concern, aside from Marion's Boy only winning 1 of 12 at this level, which is a worry, although it looks like he has made the frame in 3 of his 11 defeats...

Our Draw Analyser says that similar 1m2f contests at Chelmsford haven't really displayed much of a stalls bias...

...because if we said that the figures for stalls 2 & 9 were outliers, then there's really not a great deal of difference along the line, so that must mean that pace is the key here, as it often is at Chelmsford. Shorter trips here have certainly favoured those setting the tempo, but let's see how those races above have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...and whilst the effect of leading isn't quite a pronounced over this trip, you'd certainly rather be on a front runner than a hold-up type, especially from a place perspective. And if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, then the likely favourite Totnes is going to have her work cut out from the back of the pack...

Summary

Totnes is indeed the early (3.30pm) favourite at a fairly miserly 5/2 with the only open book at Hills. She's got ability, has a handy weight allowance and is running well, but 5/2 is too short for me about a runner destined to have to pass most of her rivals late on if she's to win. I also liked Tarbaan from Instant Expert, he's a former course and distance winner, but concedes weight all round and will also have to pass most of the field if he was to win. He'd make an ideal E/W bet, but not at 6/1!

So, for an E/W bet, i want to focus on the top 5 on the pace chart ie all those with an average score in excess of 2.00 and Boasty leads the way. He's a three-time course and distance, his last six A/W runs have seen him finish 223112. His place stats on Instant Expert were excellent, he'll set the pace here and at 10/1, looks a good E/W option.

Wadacre Gomez started out well, but has been heavily beaten in his last two outings and I'd prefer to see him show some improvement before I put any money on him. Wild Hurricane is unexposed and has finished 332 in his three A/W starts and would be a contender here. He's the 4/1 second favourite, so that's too short for an E/W bet, but he might actually go on and win this with the addition of cheekpieces.

And finally, we have Semser, who won here over course and distance in May before finishing as a runner-up at Goodwood four weeks later. He was somewhat disappointing at Lingfield next/last time out, but he is a former course and distance winner and if things fall right for him, he too could be an E/W option at 12/1, especially with the bookies paying four places here in what looks a decent/competitive race for Class 4.

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