The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where at least the first five are worth a second look.
As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
- 2.35 Newcastle
- 2.42 Limerick
- 3.45 Newcastle
- 4.00 Ffos Las
...and as Shortlist Horse Fortified Bay runs in a 'free' race, I'm going to look at the 2.35 Newcastle, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-hand 3m (after rail movements) on soft ground...
Fortified Bay won last time out, but all bar Castle Rushen (serial placer) and Wowsham (possibly weakest in the field) have won at least one of their last five and the two who are winless in five both won six races back. The Shortlist horse steps up in class after that win 16 days ago and he's the only course and distance winner in this field. Top-weight Morning Spirit drops in class and he's one of just two others (French Paradoxe being the other) to have already won at a similar trip, but we've no other track winners aside from Fortified Bay.
We've nothing new to report regarding surgeries, equipment, yard changes etc, but Wowsham hasn't raced for almost 20 weeks, but his rivals have all been out in the last 40 days and the class rising 11 yr old Fortified Bay is 3yrs older than most of the field.
MORNING SPIRIT has made the frame (9 times) in almost half of his 19 outings but has fared much better over hurdles, although he did win a Class 3, 3m1f, soft ground chase at Carlisle in November. He struggled off this mark LTO and probably needs to come back down in the weights to win again.
CASTLE RUSHEN never raced at all for 20 months prior to appearing at Wetherby in December and unseating his rider upon his chasing debut, but did finish 2nd of 9 here over 2m4½f next/last time out and that Wetherby race is the only time in his nine races that he hasn't finished in the first three home, winig three times and was placed at Listed & Grade 2 over hurdles.
WOWSHAM showed little in six Flat/AW runs prior to winning one of nine over hurdles. Hasn't raced sine mid-September when last home of five, beaten by 68 lengths at Navan and doesn't inspire confidence on his chase debut.
FRENCH PARADOXE has finished F11F in his last four over fences and was 8 lengths clear when falling at the last at Ffos Las just before Christmas. If he gets round today, he has an excellent chance of a third chase win, but will his jumping hold up?
FORTIFIED BAY was off track for 19 months from early May 2021 and was pulled up on his first two runs back (late Nov at Haydock and Boxing Day at Wetherby), but took advantage of a low mark of 117 to win by 10 lengths at Kelso 16 days ago. This is tougher up in class (+1), trip (+2f) and weight (+8lbs).
OLD PAINLESS is a former PTP who didn't do much in three efforts over hurdles, but won by 14 lengths on chase debut just before Christmas and was a runner-up next/last time out, despit going up in class. trip and weight. Up another 6lbs here, though and asked to go further than any of his other five starts under Rules.
HOUSTON TEXAS won three staying chases at Carlisle in a row last year, but struggled to 6th of 10 next time out and since then, has raced just once over hurdles, where he was only 5th of 8. Gets weight all round, but he looks second best of his yard's two runners here behind Castle Rushen
Instant Expert gives us the lowdown on the field's win & place records under similar conditions...
and past similar contests here at Newcastle have favoured those up with the pace...
...which based on the following...
...would appear to make life tougher for Castle Rushen and Houston Texas.
Summary
It looks like a three-horse race to me, between Castle Rushen, French Paradoxe and Old Painless, but none of them emerge from the analysis scot-free.
On form, French Paradoxe has fallen twice in his last four outings and he scored weakest of the three on Instant Expert, He does, however, have the advantage on pace, where Castle Rushen looks the one with ground to make up. Castle Rushen also doesn't win often enough, but is generally good for a place. As for Old Painless, he's now 13lbs higher than his last win and has never raced this far before and with French Paradoxe also considerably higher in the weights than his last win, this could well open the door for Castle Rushen to grab a first win over fences at the third attempt.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
