Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

4.55 Redcar
6.40 Galway
7.15 Galway
7.27 Sandown
8.12 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with two of the in-form yards above both having a runner in the same race from our daily free list, it makes sense to see how Balboa and Roost might get on against six other runners in the 7.27 Sandown, a Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on good to soft ground, The track is already softer in places and more rain is forecast for this group...

Kyle of Lochalsh and Alhambra Palace were both last time winners, whilst top-weight and sole female in the race Grand Providence seeks to complete a hat-trick of wins. Elsewhere Cavern Club and Enochdhu both won four starts ago, but Royal Deeside and our two featured runners, Roost and Balboa, are all five-race maidens.

Royal Deeside also runs for the second time in handicap company and Roost runs for the first time since being gelded during a 78-day absence : all his rivals have raced in the last month or so. Kyle of Lochalsh is the only class mover here, stepping up one level after getting off the mark at Newbury three weeks ago and bottom weight/featured horse Balboa makes a yard debut for Milton Harris almost three weeks after finishing 5th of 11 over course and distance on the last of his five (all unplaced) runs for Jamie Osborne.

The field have only won 8 of their combined 47 outings (17% SR) with no course nor distance wins, but they have made the frame on 15 (31.9%) of their runs to date, so we might glean a little more from the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from a win perspective...

The field haven't raced in the wet too often, but both Alhambra Palace and Cavern Club have shown some ability to deal with good to soft ground, whilst Roost and Enochdhu probably won't mind if more rain does come. The latter, however, has yet to make the frame in five starts at Class 4, wheras Cavern Club has a win and two places from his five efforts. No course or distance winners, of course, but Kyle of Lochalsh did win over 1m5½f at Newbury last time out and if conditions make this a slog, then Grand Providence's win over 2m½f on her last start might well come in to play.

Cavern Club wouldn't be an obvious pick here, but his place stats are decent enough and he's drawn in stall 1 giving him the rail to help keep him straight. Somewhat surprisingly, albeit off a really small data sample, there's actually a hint of a draw bias at play here, with low draws (especially stalls 1 & 2) doing better than expected...

...although I do still think that a horse's chances of winning a race over 1m6f shouldn't really be decided by which of eight stalls he/she breaks from and that race tactics aka pace would be more of a determining factor and if I look back at that small sample of races above, it looks like those runners who race prominently just off the leader(s) would be the type of horse you'd want to be with...

...and based on the way this relatively inexperienced field have approached their races so far, I'd expect Enochdhu and Balboa to set the pace here wit the likes of Roost, Kyle of Lochalsh and Grand Providence being the stalking horses waiting to pick them off...

Summary

I suspect this race will run to form and that the three LTO winners will be the ones to focus on here. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, I'd had no odds available to discuss, but I'd imagine that Alhambra Palace might well go off quite short without offering too much value and that the one to side with could be Kyle of Lochalsh. He's drawn low, will race prominently, should get the trip and won well last time out. Hopefully I can get somewhere near the 5/1 mark about him when the markets open.

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