Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/01/24
Happy Belated New Year everyone, I hope you all had a very merry Christmas and a good New Year's Eve/Day, I know I did!
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...
...and have sadly highlighted no qualifiers. Thankfully, in addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...
- 1.20 Ffos Las
- 1.50 Ffos Las
- 7.00 Kempton
Ffos Las has unfortunately been abandoned, as has the card at Huntingdon, leaving Kempton as the sole meeting. Our 'free' race on that card is actually the joint highest rated and joint highest prize on the card, so we'll stick with the 7.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...
It's an inexperienced field with just 41 races between them. The most experienced (Bulldog Drummond) has raced 10 times to date, but all have at least three outings under their belts. My initial thoughts were that this might be a two-horse race between Engineer and the afore-mentioned Bulldog Drummond but let's see what the card tells us...
Bulldog Drummond was the only one to win last time out and only Engineer and Ippotheos have won a race prior to this one. Engineer has mad the frame in all three outings, Gaiden has been a back to back runner-up and both Flag Carrier and Persian Blue were in the frame on their last outings.
All bar Gaiden, the fast-finishing (
) Ippotheos and Flag Carrier are stepping up from Class 5 and it will be handicap debut day for Engineer, Cast No Shadow and Persian Blue, whilst Ippotheos and Flag Carrier both run in handicap company for just the second time. Persian Blue wears a tongue tie for the first and she is the quickest turned back out, just seven days after finishing third at Wolverhampton. Engineer has been off track the longest, but seven weeks is hardly a long break from action and the other eight have all been seen in the last 13-26 days.
Only three of the field have raced here before, making the frame four times from five combined runs but no wins. Our three previous winners, Engineer, Ippotheos & Bulldog Drummond have all won at this trip, though...
With so little winning form from this bunch, I've also included the place stats and they do suggest that the upper half/five on the card would be the place to focus with Engineer the standout. Ippotheos might find this tough at 11lbs higher than his sole win, but he does have a 7lb claimer on board to help in that respect. Bulldog Drummond and Flag Carrier both have much better place stats than their win records on the A/W.
The draw stats from previous similar contests show that the lower a horse has been drawn here, the greater the chances of making the frame and ultimately winning...
...which is another boost to the claims of Engineer, but not great for Flag Carrier.
Those 70 or so races above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those who race prominently or lead and based on this field's last three runs (some only have three!)...
...that's another tick in the box for Engineer. There's also some encouragement for Flag Carrier from his wide draw, whilst it may well be Cast No Shadow who sets the early pace. He has failed to hold on in his last two, both over 5f, so I suspect the extra furlong here makes life even tougher.
Summary
When I first looked at the card, I thought it might be a two-horse race between Engineer and Bulldog Drummond, but I'm much keener on the former now I've had a closer look and the 7/2 (Hills at 3.40pm) Engineer is the one for me. Bulldog will run his race and make a late dash for the line, as will the fast-finishing Ippotheos, but they might encounter traffic. That said, neither are backable IMO as E/W options at their current odds of 4/1 & 6/1 respectively.
If Ippotheos drifted from 6's and/or Flag Carrier was longer than the current 13/2, then they might be the ones for E/W consideration, but for now, I'll just stick with Engineer.
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