Racing Insights, Thursday 06/07/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.30 Yarmouth
3.30 Yarmouth
4.25 Bellewstown
4.45 Haydock
7.35 Kempton
7.40 Bellewstown

...and of the four UK races, the one with the most Instant Expert data to work with is the 7.35 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-dmile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Kingori has two wins and a place from his three starts so far. Rhythm N Rock, Tiempo Star and Ashky have all won two of their last seven, but four of the field (Naval Commander, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) have lost at least seven on the bounce (7, 8, 8 & 11 respectively!)

Naval Commander does at least drop two classes here, as does Ashky, whilst Smiling Sunflower is down one with Kingori, Bruno's Gold and He's A Gentleman going the other direction.

This will be a UK debut, yard debut and handicap debut for Lion's Mane, as well as a return from a lengthy (233 days) absence, but Kingori (also on hcp debut) and the consistent Flyawaydream have been away longer (258 & 280 days). This is also a first run for Naval Commander with a tongue tie and Ashky in cheekpieces.

All bar Lion's Mane, Flyawaydream and Smiling Sunflower have won over today's trip, but the latter has at least won over 7f here at Kempton before, whist Naval Commander scored here over 1m3f. Four of the field (Rhythm N Rock, Fantasy Believer, Billy Mill & Two Tempting) are former course and distance winners.

I said that this race had the most Instant Expert data from the 'free' UK races, but that doesn't mean it's good news...

...but it might help to rule some out.

Fantasy Believer is probably best suited, as he's the only one with no red blocks for either going, class, course or distance, but I've concerns over Naval Commander and Billy Mill generally and the field's lack of Class 4 success, although a few of them do actually have decent place records at this grade...

Billy Mill looks a different animal on place stats and if I was being brutal, I'd probably be focusing my attention on these five, just on that place data...

That's not to say the the winner and placers (bookies will pay four places here) are definitely in that five (we'll soon see), but you'd have to say they look more likely based on the numbers, but we've a big field here and the bare data from the Draw Analyser suggests that Two Tempting and Billy Mill might have a job on their hands from out wide...

...and the stall by stall stats would appear to back this up...

The associated pace/draw heat map, however, seems to set more stall on the pace of the race rather than the draw...

...and that will be because the pace analyser says...

So, we really don't want a hold-up horse and ideally we get one who could lead from a high or even low draw. If we look at the field's last four runs from a pace perspective, sort them into draw order and attach them to the pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with no standout runner. What I think might happen here is that the consistent Flyawaydream might try to nick this race from the front and attempt to make all. He's a natural front-runner, who has yet to finish outside the first three home in any of his six starts and has won under today's jockey, so I'll add him to the five who looked most likely to make the frame from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've left myself with six runners (Tiempo Star, Two Tempting, Billy Mill, Kingori, Fantasy Believer and Flyawaydream) for four places and whilst I think that Kingori and Fantasy Believer might well be the pick of the bunch, I'm not rushing out to back them at 4/1 and 13/2 respectively. I think both have an excellent chance of making the frame, but those odds aren't E/W odds for me.

The same would therefore apply to Tiempo Star and Flyawaydream at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, leaving me with just Two Tempting at 15/2 and Billy Mill at 10's. And whilst these two are probably the weakest pair of the half-dozen under consideration, it only takes one or two of the principals to fail to fire and you've got yourself a nice E/W bet. It wouldn't be big stakes here, but a small interest bet would work.

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