Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/07/24
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 2.40 Uttoxeter
- 4.55 Thirsk
- 5.20 Killarney
- 7.50 Killarney
- 8.10 Yarmouth
My own personal settings for the TS report...
...have highlighted the following runners...
None of these come here on the back of a win, but Moreginplease and Porfin were both runners-up after also being placed on their penultimate outings. Bluebells Boy was third recently and a course and distance winner prior to that and only Dion Baker, Fletchers Flight, Moreginplease and Porfin have also had a win in their last five outings.
Bluebells Boy and Munificent are denoted as fast finishers and top weight Dion Baker is the only class mover, dropping down from Class 5. Six-race maiden Melisende now wears blinkers for the first time and Majorelle Blue makes a yard debut for Simon Pearce in what will be just her fifth start and second in handicap company.
She may well need the run after six months off track, as aside from Munificent (last seen ten weeks ago), all her rivals have had at least one outing in the last five weeks.
As you'd expect from such a lowly race, we don't have much in the way of course/distance wins, but Fletcher's Flight and Moreginplease have both own over this trip before, whilst Dion Baker (7f), Munificent (5f) and Enchanted Night (5f) have all won here at Yarmouth in the past, although I should point out that the latter has an overall career record of 1 win in 45 efforts!
We know that Bluebells Boy won over course and distance two starts and nineteen days ago, but Porfin also achieved that feat five weeks ago for his first ever Yarmouth success, according to Instant Expert...
...which doesn't really give us much to work on. Bluebells Boy, Porfin and Munificent probably lead the way here, but the numbers aren't terribly exciting, so I'm hoping to get more from the place stats...
...which, in fairness, are more helpful and do point to some decent efforts being produced. There's not really much on that graphic that would rule any of them out of contention, but Dion Baker, Bluebells Boy, Moreginplease, Porfin, Munificent and Enchanted Night catch the eye most here from stalls 3, 5, 6, 7, 9 and 11. I'm already fairly dismissive of stall 3 Enchanted Night's chances of a second career win on his 46th start, so if there's any draw bias to be had, I'm hoping it's the higher stalls that benefit...
Sadly, that's not quite the case, as lower drawn runners have come out slightly better, but I'm never too convinced about the draw on a straight sprint being as decisive as the pace/tactics might be and in those races above it has been the prominent stalker who has prevailed and if we look at this field's last few efforts...
...it would appear that Dion Baker will set the pace of the race and thus become the target to be picked off by the likes of Porfin, who seems to have the best pace/draw profile here.
Summary
A poor race full of poor runners, but one of them will win and I hope it's Porfin. He won here over course and distance four starts ago and has been a runner-up at Wolverhampton in each of his last two outings, so he's in good nick. He's only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark and scored well on Instant Expert. Tie that in with his seemingly excellent pace/draw profile and he's the one to beat for me here.
On level terms Bluebells Boy is probably the 'best' in the the race, but he's up 7lbs from his own last course an distance win and seems unsuited by the pace/draw. That said, I fully expect him to be in the mix.
Aside from those two, I've little enthusiasm for the others and without seeing a market for the race (it's only 2.40pm Tuesday as I write this), it's hard to suggest an E/W possible, but maybe Moreginplease or Havana Smoke?
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