Racing Insights, Wednesday 30/08/23 geegeez.co.uk

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

2.15 Cork
3.15 Cork
4.35 Bellewstown
4.40 Uttoxeter
6.00 Kempton
7.20 Uttoxeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner to consider...

14-day form

course 1-year form

If I'm honest, I'm not keen on any of the free races, nor the race involving the wildly out-of-form Lord Bryan, so I'm going pot luck today and I'm just going to cover the highest rated race of the day, which happens to be the 6.20 Uttoxeter, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f on good ground...

None of these managed to win on their last outing but Sacchoandvanzetti and Presenting Pete were runners-up and Chaos Control was third. One Touch has won two of this last three and Chaos Control, Mr Tambourine Man and City Derby have all won once in their last five.

One Touch now drops in class after failing to land a hat-trick, but top weight Ashington, likely favourite Sacchoandvanzetti and Presenting Pete are all up one level. Only four of the field (Mr Tambourine Man, City Derby, Presenting Pete and One Touch) have won over this trip before with the latter being the sole previous course winner, having scored over course and distance three starts ago.

Those wins will be highlighted in Instant Expert, which will show the overall past record of the field under expected conditions...

...and there's not much to crow about there, although One Touch looks the one on those figures, although he's 11lbs higher than when he won two starts ago (but is down in class and by 2lbs here). Mr Tambourine Man and City Derby have poor win records on good ground, but if truth be told with respective overall records of 3 from 18 and 4 from 23, they tend not to win very often on any type of going!

Ashington has failed to win any of eleven at Class 3, so you'd not expect that to change here and Mr Tambourine Man has been poor at this trip, but as I said before, he's generally poor! With so little green to work with, it might be worthwhile looking at the field's place records under the same criteria...

...which is more interesting. From that, I think I'd be happier with Ashington, One Touch, Sacchoandvanzetti and Presenting Pete than I would be with the other half of the field.

In past similar races, the further forward your horse has raced, the better the chances of winning have been...

...and if we look back at our eight runners' most recent efforts, we seem to have a reluctance to lead...

...but I'd expect Chaos Control and Ashington to end up making the pace here.

Summary

Short and sweet today, sadly. This might be the highest rated race of the day, but it's a poor-looking contest once I've got into it. The 3/1 favourite Sacchoandvanzetti is probably the horse to beat, but I'm concerned about him having to come from off the pace and whilst he might well win, I think I'd rather back Chaos Control at 7/2, based on the pace scores.

Ashington might also be up with the pace and whilst not an obvious winner with a 4 from 23 record over hurdles, he has made the frame 12 times and his place stats on Instant Expert were decent enough. Tie that data in with a prominent run and it could be a 13th place from 24 runs. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it's your own call. You never know, he might drift a little.

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